Brian Lipinski’s scientific contributions

This chapter considers the food security challenge to 2030 and its implications for the sustainable development agenda. It first outlines three proposed food security targets that integrate sustainability and must be achieved by 2030: reduce the rate of food loss and waste by 50 per cent; reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from food production by 25 per cent; reduce the water-intensity of agricultural production by 30 per cent. It then discusses the grand challenge as well as opportunity at the nexus of food security, economic development and the environment and proceeds by introducing six core propositions aimed at meeting the food security challenge and how this challenge affects the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Finally, it explains how proposed food security targets would help feed the growing global population in a manner that results in poverty alleviation and economic development while reducing pressure on natural resources.

Introduction Over the next several decades, the world faces an historic challenge and opportunity at the nexus of food security, economic development and the environment. The world needs to be food secure. The world needs agriculture to contribute to inclusive economic development, and the world needs to reduce agriculture's impact on the environment. This nexus has several implications for policymakers as they outline and implement the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by the United Nations in September 2015. Critically, this agenda has an explicit goal on food security. However, it is also important that the food security goal includes some sustainability targets and indicators. This chapter examines the food security challenge to 2050, and lays out six core propositions related to food security and sustainability. With an eye to implications of the food security challenge for the sustainable development agenda, it then details three proposed food security targets that integrate sustainability. These targets include reducing the rate of food loss and waste, and achieving low-carbon agriculture and water-efficient food production (Table 16.1). Finally, the chapter offers some reflections on how these targets would help the world feed a growing population in a manner that alleviates poverty and advances economic development while reducing pressure on its natural resources. The food security challenge Over the next several decades, the world faces a grand challenge – and opportunity – at the nexus of food security, economic development and the environment. First, the world needs to be food secure The United Nations Population Division projects the global human population to grow from 7 billion in 2012 to 9.7 billion by 2050 (UN DESA, 2015). Half of the population growth will be in sub- Saharan Africa (UN DESA, 2015), where agricultural productivity and soil quality is exceptionally low and where reliance on imports of basic staples is already high. Moreover, at least 3 billion people are likely to enter the global middle class by 2030, and they will almost certainly demand more resource-intensive foods such as meats and vegetable oils (Foresight, 2011). At the same time, approximately 795 million of the world's poorest people remain undernourished even today (FAO, IFAD and WFP, 2015).

Installment 11 of Creating a Sustainable Food Future shows that for people who consume high amounts of meat and dairy, shifting to diets with a greater share of plant-based foods could significantly reduce agriculture’s pressure on the environment. It introduces a protein scorecard ranking foods from lowest (plant-based foods) to highest impact (beef), as well as the Shift Wheel, which harnesses proven marketing and behavior change strategies to help move billions of people to more sustainable diets.

Installment 11 of Creating a Sustainable Food Future shows that for people who consume high amounts of meat and dairy, shifting to diets with a greater share of plant-based foods could significantly reduce agriculture’s pressure on the environment. It introduces a protein scorecard ranking foods from lowest (plant-based foods) to highest impact (beef), as well as the Shift Wheel, which harnesses proven marketing and behavior change strategies to help move billions of people to more sustainable diets.

The world’s agricultural system faces a great balancing act. To meet different human needs, by 2050 it must simultaneously produce far more food for a population expected to reach about 9.6 billion, provide economic opportunities for the hundreds of millions of rural poor who depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, and reduce environmental impacts, including ecosystem degradation and high greenhouse gas emissions. The forthcoming 2013-14 World Resources Report, Creating a Sustainable Food Future, responds to this challenge with a menu of solutions that could achieve this balance. This report provides an initial analysis of the scope of the challenge and the technical prospects of different menu items