Brendan K. Beare’s research while affiliated with The University of Sydney and other places

We prove an extended Granger–Johansen representation theorem (GJRT) for finite‐ or infinite‐order integrated autoregressive time series on Banach space. We assume only that the resolvent of the autoregressive polynomial for the series is analytic on and inside the unit circle except for an isolated singularity at unity. If the singularity is a pole of finite order the time series is integrated of the same order. If the singularity is an essential singularity the time series is integrated of order infinity. When there is no deterministic forcing the value of the series at each time is the sum of an almost surely convergent stochastic trend, a deterministic term depending on the initial conditions and a finite sum of embedded white noise terms in the prior observations. This is the extended GJRT. In each case the original series is the sum of two separate autoregressive time series on complementary subspaces – a singular component which is integrated of the same order as the original series and a regular component which is not integrated. The extended GJRT applies to all integrated autoregressive processes irrespective of the spatial dimension, the number of stochastic trends and cointegrating relations in the system and the order of integration.

A recent economic literature deals with models of random growth in which the size (say, log-wealth) of an individual economic agent is subject to light-tailed random additive shocks over time. The distribution of these shocks depends on a latent Markov modulator. It has been shown that if Markov modulation is irreducible then the models give rise to a distribution of sizes across agents whose upper tail resembles, in a particular sense, that of an exponential distribution. We show that while this need not be the case under reducible Markov modulation, the upper tail will nevertheless resemble that of an Erlang distribution. A novel extension of the Rothblum index theorem from an affine setting to a holomorphic one allows us to characterize the shape parameter for the relevant Erlang distribution.

This article clarifies the relationship between pricing kernel monotonicity and the existence of opportunities for stochastic arbitrage in a complete and frictionless market of derivative securities written on a market portfolio. The relationship depends on whether the payoff distribution of the market portfolio satisfies a technical condition called adequacy, meaning that it is atomless or is comprised of finitely many equally probable atoms. Under adequacy, pricing kernel nonmonotonicity is equivalent to the existence of a strong form of stochastic arbitrage involving distributional replication of the market portfolio at a lower price. If the adequacy condition is dropped then this equivalence no longer holds, but pricing kernel nonmonotonicity remains equivalent to the existence of a weaker form of stochastic arbitrage involving second‐order stochastic dominance of the market portfolio at a lower price. A generalization of the optimal measure preserving derivative is obtained, which achieves distributional replication at the minimum cost of all second‐order stochastically dominant securities under adequacy.

Given independent samples from two univariate distributions, one-sided Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney statistics may be used to conduct rank-based tests of stochastic dominance. We broaden the scope of applicability of such tests by showing that the bootstrap may be used to conduct valid inference in a matched pairs sampling framework permitting dependence between the two samples. Further, we show that a modified bootstrap incorporating an implicit estimate of a contact set may be used to improve power. Numerical simulations indicate that our test using the modified bootstrap effectively controls the null rejection rates and can deliver more or less power than that of the Donald-Hsu test. In the course of establishing our results we obtain a weak approximation to the empirical ordinance dominance curve permitting its population density to diverge to infinity at zero or one at arbitrary rates.

Opportunities for stochastic arbitrage in an options market arise when it is possible to construct a portfolio of options which provides a positive option premium and which, when combined with a direct investment in the underlying asset, generates a payoff which stochastically dominates the payoff from the direct investment in the underlying asset. We provide linear and mixed integer-linear programs for computing the stochastic arbitrage opportunity providing the maximum option premium to an investor. We apply our programs to 18 years of data on monthly put and call options on the Standard & Poors 500 index, confining attention to options with moderate moneyness, and using two specifications of the underlying asset return distribution, one symmetric and one skewed. The pricing of market index options with moderate moneyness appears to be broadly consistent with our skewed specification of market returns.

This article clarifies the relationship between pricing kernel monotonicity and the existence of opportunities for stochastic arbitrage. The relationship depends on whether the distribution of the underlying asset payoff is adequate, meaning that it is atomless or is comprised of finitely many equally probable atoms. Under adequacy, pricing kernel nonmonotonicity is equivalent to the existence of a strong form of stochastic arbitrage involving distributional replication of the underlying asset payoff at a lower price. If the adequacy condition is dropped then this equivalence no longer holds, but pricing kernel nonmonotonicity remains equivalent to the existence of a weaker form of stochastic arbitrage involving second-order stochastic dominance of the underlying asset payoff at a lower price. A generalization of the optimal measure preserving derivative is obtained which achieves distributional replication at the minimum cost of all second-order stochastically dominant securities under adequacy.

This article contains new tools for studying the shape of the stationary distribution of sizes in a dynamic economic system in which units experience random multiplicative shocks and are occasionally reset. Each unit has a Markov‐switching type, which influences their growth rate and reset probability. We show that the size distribution has a Pareto upper tail, with exponent equal to the unique positive solution to an equation involving the spectral radius of a certain matrix‐valued function. Under a nonlattice condition on growth rates, an eigenvector associated with the Pareto exponent provides the distribution of types in the upper tail of the size distribution.

A function which transforms a continuous random variable such that it has a specified distribution is called a replicating function. We suppose that functions may be assigned a price, and study an optimization problem in which the cheapest approximation to a replicating function is sought. Under suitable regularity conditions, including a bound on the entropy of the set of candidate approximations, we show that the optimal approximation comes close to achieving distributional replication, and close to achieving the minimum cost among replicating functions. We discuss the relevance of our results to the financial literature on hedge fund replication; in this case, the optimal approximation corresponds to the cheapest portfolio of market index options which delivers the hedge fund return distribution.