Boyan Zhang’s research while affiliated with Harbin Normal University and other places

Climate change and land use change caused by human activities have a profound impact on ecological security. Simulating the spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service value and ecological security patterns under different carbon emission scenarios in the future is of great significance for formulating sustainable development policies. This study quantified the four major ecosystem services (habitat quality, water retention, soil erosion, and carbon storage) in Northeast China (NC), identified ecological source areas, and constructed a stable ecological security pattern. The results show that the spatial patterns of soil erosion, carbon storage, water retention, and habitat quality, the four major ecosystem services in NC, are relatively stable in the next 30 years, and there is no significant difference from the current spatial pattern distribution. The SSP1–2.6 carbon emission scenario is a priority model for the development of NC in the next 30 years. In this carbon emission scenario, the NC has the largest ecological resources (191,177 km²) and the least comprehensive resistance value (850.006 × 10⁻⁴). At the same time, the relative resistance of the corridor in this scenario is the smallest, and the area of the mandatory reserve pinch points is the least. The ecological corridors in the SSP1–2.6 scenario form a network distribution among the ecological sources, connecting several large ecological sources as a whole. This study fills the knowledge gap in building a stable ecological security pattern in NC under the background of global change, and provides a scientific basis for the decision-making of regional ecological security and land resource management.

Wild medicinal plants are prominent in the field of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), but their availability is being impacted by human activities and ecological degradation in China. To ensure sustainable use of these resources, it is crucial to scientifically plan areas for wild plant cultivation. Thesium chinense, a known plant antibiotic, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we employed three atmospheric circulation models and four socio-economic approaches (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of T. chinense. We also examined changes in its suitable area using the Biomod2 package. Additionally, we utilized the PLUS model to project and analyze future land use changes in climate-stable regions for T. chinense. Our planning for wild tending areas of T. chinense was facilitated by the ZONATION software. Over the next century, the climate-stable regions for T. chinense in China is approximately 383.05 × 10⁴ km², while the natural habitat in this region will progressively decline. Under the current climate conditions, about 65.06% of the habitats in the high suitable areas of T. chinense are not affected by future land use changes in China. Through hotspot analysis, we identified 17 hotspot cities as ideal areas for the wild tending of T. chinense, including 6 core hotspot cities, 6 sub-hotspot cities, and 5 fringe hotspot cities. These findings contribute to a comprehensive research framework for the cultivation planning of T. chinense and other medicinal plants.

Human activities and climate change have significantly impacted the quantity and sustainable utilization of medicinal plants. Gentiana manshurica Kitagawa, a high-quality original species of Gentianae Radix et Rhizoma, has significant medicinal value. However, wild resources have experienced a sharp decline due to human excavation, habitat destruction, and other factors. Consequently, it has been classified as an Endangered (EN) species on the IUCN Red List and is considered a third-level national key-protected medicinal material in China. The effects of climate change on G. manshurica are not yet known in the context of the severe negative impacts of climate change on most species. In this study, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the current and future potential distribution of G. manshurica. In addition, land use data in 1980, 2000, and 2020 were used to calculate habitat quality by InVEST model and landscape fragmentation by the Fragstats model. Finally, using the above-calculated results, the priority protection areas and wild tending areas of G. manshurica were planned in ZONATION software. The results show that the suitable area is mainly distributed in the central part of the Songnen Plain. Bio15, bio03, bio01, and clay content are the environmental variables affecting the distribution. In general, the future potential distribution is expected to show an increasing trend. However, the species is expected to become threatened as carbon emission scenarios and years increase gradually. At worst, the high suitability area is expected to disappear completely under SSP585-2090s. Combined with the t-test, this could be due to pressure from bio01. The migration trends of climate niche centroid are inconsistent and do not all move to higher latitudes under different carbon emission scenarios. Over the past 40 years, habitat quality in the current potential distribution has declined yearly, and natural habitat has gradually fragmented. Existing reserves protect only 9.52% of G. manshurica’s priority conservation area. To avoid extinction risk and increase the practicality of the results, we clarified the hotspot counties of priority protection area gaps and wild tending areas. These results can provide an essential reference and decision basis for effectively protecting G. manshurica under climate change.

Wild medicinal plants dominate the market of Traditonal Chinese Medicine (TCM). However, the intensification of human activities and ecological deterioration have caused a gradual depletion or extinction of wild medicinal plant resources in China. Scientific planning of wild tending areas is a priority to realize the sustainable utilization of wild medicinal plant resources. Thesium chinense, a known “plant antibiotic”, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we combined three atmospheric circulation models and four common socio-economic approaches (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to explore the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. chinense and the changes in the suitable area under the complete niche based on the Biomod2 package. The PLUS model was used to predict and analyze the land use change trend in the climate-stable areas of T. chinense in the future. And the wild tending areas of T. chinense were planned using ZONATION software. In the next hundred years, the climate-stable areas of T. chinense in China will mainly be distributed in humid and subhumid area, and the natural habitat areas of T. chinense in this region will decrease year by year. Hot spot analysis showed that Qiqihar, Chifeng, Zunyi, and other counties were the most suitable for the wild tending of T. chinense. These results can provide a comprehensive research framework for wild tending planning of T. chinense and other medicinal plants.

Tilia amurensis is a national class II endangered plant in China. It plays an essential role in maintaining the stability of regional forest communities. Moreover, it is an essential economic tree species in Northeast Asia. In recent years, the impact of rapid climate change on the distribution and adaptability of plant populations has received increasing attention. However, there is still a knowledge gap in our understanding of the future distribution changes of this important species. In this study, we used the ensemble species distribution model to simulate the distribution of T. amurensis in China under different climate scenarios. In addition, we used Fragstats and Zonation software based on the result of the ensemble species distribution model and combining the multi-year land use data. Using this method, we can clarify the landscape pattern changes and priority protection areas of T. amurensis. The results showed that the suitable area of T. amurensis in China was mainly located in the northeast region. The area of forest habitat suitable for T. amurensis has gradually decreased, and the fragmentation degree has progressively increased over the past 40 years. Under the background of future climate change, the suitable area of T. amurensis could move progressively to high latitude and high altitude, and the total area could show an upward trend. However, the area of the high suitable area could decrease sharply with the increase of year and carbon emissions. Six environmental factors: altitude (Alt), precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18), mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio09), min temperature of the coldest month (Bio06), temperature seasonality (Bio04), and isothermality (Bio03), play a crucial role in the spatial distribution of T. amurensis. The counties in Northeast China are the most suitable areas for protecting T. amurensis action, located in the southern Xiaoxing'an Mountains and northern Changbai Mountains counties. In addition, among the existing protected areas, Fenglin National Nature Reserve has the highest area of mandatory reserves. It is expected to become a preferred location for T. amurensis conservation actions. Our results can provide a helpful reference for the effective protection and sustainable utilization of T. amurensis under climate change.

Objective Phellodendron amurense, a special species in Northeast Asia, is the source of the wild medicinal Phellodendri Amurensis Cortex, the second-level key protection in China. Because of its dual value of medicine and timber, it has been cut in large quantities, resulting in a sharp decline in wild resources. It has been listed as a national first-class rare tree species. Here, we aim to plan protection area and wild tending area for Chinese P. amurense in the context of climate change. Method In this study, based on the Biomod2 model, the main environmental factors affecting the distribution and the potentially suitable areas of the current and future were investigated. Furthermore, the correlation between the main environmental factors and the chemical components was determined by full subset regression. Habitat quality and landscape pattern change were determined by InVEST and Fragstats software based on the land use data in 1980, 2000, and 2020. Then, Zonation software was used to plan the priority protection and wild tending areas. Results The results showed that in the future, the potential habitat of P. amurense will gradually move to the high latitude and high altitude areas in the northwest direction, and the high suitability area will decrease sharply. Since 1980, the habitat quality of P. amurense habitat has gradually deteriorated, and the fragmentation has gradually intensified. In the future, the central part of the Greater Khingan Mountains and the forest area of the Lesser Khingan Mountains will be the long-term stable sanctuary. Fengcheng City and Tonghua County are the most suitable for the wild tending areas. Conclusion The existing nature reserve only contains 6.01% of the priority protection area, so we propose to expand the area to cover a larger proportion of the sanctuary and implement management and restoration plans to increase the suitability and connectivity. These results can support the protection action and provide a reference and scientific basis for further research, rational development, and utilization of P. amurense.

Saposhnikovia divaricata is an important economic medicinal plant in eastern Asia. It is the National Grade III Key Protected Wild Medicinal Plants in China. However, little is known about the effects of projected climate change on its adaptability and future distribution. In this study, we simulated the suitable area of S. divaricata under current (1970–2000) and four climate change scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) in 2050s (2041–2060), 2070s (2061–2080) and 2090s (2081–2100) using maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The results demonstrated that temperature seasonality (Bio04), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), elevation (Ele), and isothermally (Bio03) were the most important environmental variables determining the distribution of S. divaricata. Under the current climate situation, the suitable areas were mainly located in Northeast China and North China, with a total area of 134.87 × 10⁴km². The grassland is the largest land use type in the suitable area of S. divaricata. The priority planting region of S. divaricata are located in the southwest of Heilongjiang and the northwest of Jilin Province. The wild tending region is located in the middle east of Inner Mongolia. Under the future climate scenarios, the suitable areas of S. divaricata showed increasing trends. SSP5-8.5 scenario would have the highest area growth, with 43.09 %, 61.15 %, and 62.11 % increase in the three periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s). In addition, the high latitude migration of the geometric center of the total suitable area is predicted. Our results could provide a reference for the conservation and sustainable development and utilization of this species in the future.