Bernard Dumas’s research while affiliated with INSEAD and other places

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Publications (97)


Geographic Investing: Stock Return Indexes Based on Company Operations
  • Article

April 2023

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6 Reads

Financial Analysts Journal

Bernard Dumas

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Tymur Gabuniya

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Richard C. Marston

Portfolio allocations to firms of various geographic areas should be guided by underlying risks of operations. In most statistical studies of international stock returns, a firm is included in a country’s index if its headquarters is located in that country, a classification scheme that ignores the operations of the firm taking place in multiple geographic areas. In prior work, we have proposed a model of country factors that is based on the business activities of all firms operating in a country, be they domestic firms or multinationals. In the present paper, we compare the resulting indexes with the domestic revenue exposure indexes already available in the industry. We conclude that our new indexes allow a portfolio manager to track geographic risk much more accurately.


A Theory of the Nominal Character of Stock Securities

November 2022

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2 Reads

European Finance Review

We construct recursive solutions for, and study the properties of the dynamic equilibrium of an economy with three types of agents: (i) household/investors who supply labor with a finite elasticity, consume a large variety of goods that are not perfect substitutes and trade government bonds; (ii) firms that produce those varieties of goods, receive productivity shocks and set prices in a Calvo manner; (iii) a government that collects an income-driven fiscal surplus and acts mechanically, buying and selling bonds in accordance with a Taylor policy rule based on expected inflation. In this setting, we show that stock market returns are much less than one-for-one related to inflation over a 1-year holding period, which means that stock securities have a strong nominal character. We also show that their nominal character diminishes as the length of the stock-holding period increases, in accordance with empirical evidence.


Firms’ Exposures to Geographic Risks

November 2021

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5 Reads

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3 Citations

Journal of International Money and Finance

The distinction between domicile and place of business is becoming more and more relevant as a growing number of firms have activities abroad. In most statistical studies of international stock returns, a firm is included in a country’s index if its headquarters are located in that country. This classification scheme ignores the operations of the firm. We propose, instead, to measure the firms’s exposures to “geographic zones” according to the place where they conduct business. As a representation of “geographic risks” , we synthesize zone factors from all firms in the dataset, be they domestic firms or multinationals. And we show the properties of the exposures to the zone factors.




The Dynamic Properties of Financial‐Market Equilibrium with Trading Fees

December 2018

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54 Reads

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41 Citations

We incorporate trading fees into a dynamic, multi‐agent general‐equilibrium model in which traders optimally decide when to trade. For that purpose, we propose an innovative algorithm that synchronizes the traders. Securities prices are not so much affected by the payment of the fees itself, but rather by the trade‐off that the traders face between smoothing consumption and smoothing holdings. In calibrated examples, the interest rate and welfare decline, while risk premia and volatilities increase, with trading fees. Liquidity risk and expected liquidity are priced, leading to deviations from the consumption‐CAPM. With trading fees, capital is slow‐moving, generating slow price reversal. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved


Figure 2: Non stationarity of the equilibrium. Left panel: probability density function of the consumption share for various horizons (in years) for an intial share equal to ! t = 0:25. Right panel: the same for an initial share ! t = 0:5.
Panel C reports the estimates for the coe¢ cients on the DOO variables. 41 Given in
Differences of Opinion and International Equity Markets
  • Article
  • Full-text available

March 2017

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38 Reads

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41 Citations

Review of Financial Studies

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The Intended and Unintended Consequences of Financial-Market Regulations: A General Equilibrium Analysis

April 2016

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50 Reads

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38 Citations

Journal of Monetary Economics

In a production economy with trade in financial markets motivated by the desire to share labor-income risk and to speculate, we show that speculation increases volatility of asset returns and investment growth, increases the equity risk premium, and reduces welfare. Regulatory measures, such as constraints on stock positions, borrowing constraints, and the Tobin tax have similar effects on financial and macroeconomic variables. However, borrowing constraints and the Tobin tax are more successful than constraints on stock positions at improving welfare because they substantially reduce speculative trading without impairing excessively risk-sharing trades.


The Intended and Unintended Consequences of Financial-Market Regulations: A General Equilibrium Analysis

January 2016

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79 Reads

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3 Citations

SSRN Electronic Journal

In a production economy with trade in financial markets motivated by the desire to share labor-income risk and to speculate, we show that speculation increases volatility of asset returns and investment growth, increases the equity risk premium, and reduces welfare. Regulatory measures, such as constraints on stock positions, borrowing constraints, and the Tobin tax have similar effects on financial and macroeconomic variables. Borrowing limits and a financial transaction tax improve welfare because they substantially reduce speculative trading without impairing excessively risk-sharing trades.


Citations (60)


... Our focus is on optimal investment/consumption problems, but there is a parallel literature on optimal investment problems involving maximising expected utility at a distant terminal horizon, see, for example, Dumas and Luciano [12] for an explicit solution in the one-asset case and Bichuch and Guasoni [3] for recent work in a setting similar to ours with liquid and illiquid assets. ...

Reference:

A multi-asset investment and consumption problem with transaction costs
An Exact Solution to a Dynamic Portfolio Choice Problem under Transaction Costs
  • Citing Article
  • December 1991

Financial Services Review

... We employ the most effective measure of investor sentiment (Baker and Wurgler, 2006), which encapsulates an investor's optimism or pessimism regarding the stock market's future prospects. This index is used in or has inspired numerous studies (Dumas et al., 2017;Zhu et al., 2020). The first model (Row2) presented in Table 8 explains 80% of the variance in trading volume, indicating that this model accounts for most of the variation in stock liquidity. ...

Differences of Opinion and International Equity Markets

Review of Financial Studies

... In particular, even the most frequently traded assets have limited liquidity provided in the market. Hence, the dynamic interplay between asset prices and agents' trading behaviors under the presence of trading costs has been a focal point of extensive research; see [2,11,26,35]. To establish a theoretical foundation for the impact of illiquidity, it is essential to formulate equilibrium asset pricing models. ...

The Dynamic Properties of Financial‐Market Equilibrium with Trading Fees
  • Citing Article
  • December 2018

... By throwing sand in the wheels of foreign exchange markets, one hopes to prevent certain types of traders from entering the market, and restrain short-term speculative capital flow (Yin et al., 2022). Compared with asset position limits and financing constraints, the Tobin tax is a price-type capital control tool, and can limit speculative trading without undermining the risk-sharing mechanism in capital markets (Berentsen et al., 2016;Buss et al., 2016). ...

The Intended and Unintended Consequences of Financial-Market Regulations: A General Equilibrium Analysis
  • Citing Article
  • January 2016

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Third, because the global access to information and advancement in information technology eliminate information asymmetry between local and foreign investors, the mass production of news gives rise to a greater potential for investors to have distinct interpretations on the same piece of information. Local investors may be better equipped to understand local news than foreign investors (Dumas, Lewis, and Osambela 2017), and they trust and analyze local news more than foreign news (Jia, Wang, and Xiong 2017). Likewise, if foreign investors believe their home media coverage is more reliable and interpretable, they will increase their investment in local stocks covered in their home media outlets. ...

Differences of Opinion and International Equity Markets
  • Citing Article
  • January 2011

SSRN Electronic Journal

... In markets with more than two agents, µ is only implicitly defined, making even advanced deep learning-based numerical methods, such as the FBSDE Solver from [24], inapplicable. Although there are tailored numerical methods for specific incomplete financial equilibria in discrete-time [11,16], a general framework for continuous-time equilibrium models remains elusive. ...

Incomplete-Market Equilibria Solved Recursively on an Event Tree
  • Citing Article
  • January 2012

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Our model can be viewed as that of agents with loss aversion toward consumption changes. Wang (1996), Basak and Cuoco (1998), Chan and Kogan (2002), Dumas et al. (2009), Bhamra and Uppal (2009, Longstaff and Wang (2012), and Gârleanu and Panageas (2015) investigate models with heterogeneous agents. We also consider consumer heterogeneity and focus on heterogeneity in consumption adjustments or in loss aversion, which none of these works investigate. ...

Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility
  • Citing Article
  • January 2007

SSRN Electronic Journal

... The factors that affect stock return interdependence is an issue of ongoing research (e.g., Pretorius, 2002;Solnik et al., 1996;Longin and Solnik, 1995;Forbes and Chinn, 2004;Dumas et al., 2003;Wälti, 2011;King et al., 1994;Kiviaho et al., 2014). Generally, stocks are presumed to react to both macroeconomic fundamentals and financial variables. ...

Are Correlations of Stock Returns Justified by Subsequent Changes in National Outputs?
  • Citing Article
  • January 2002

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Trading costs compound these difficulties, because they severely complicate the corresponding optimisation problems. Accordingly, the literature on equilibrium asset prices with transaction costs has focused either on numerical methods (Heaton and Lucas [32], Buss et al. [14], Buss and Dumas [13]) or on models where the market volatility is either zero (Vayanos and Vila [59], Lo et al. [43], Weston [60]) or given exogenously (Vayanos [58], Gârleanu and Pedersen [26], Sannikov and Skrzypacz [54], Bouchard et al. [10]). ...

The Intended and Unintended Consequences of Financial-Market Regulations: A General Equilibrium Analysis
  • Citing Article
  • January 2016

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Moussa et al. (2021) used multiple models like the 'Engle-Granger two-step cointegration approach', 'two-state Markov-switching model', 'DCC-FIAPARCH (1,d,1) model', 'ARCH' and 'GARCH models' techniques. Other multi-models employed include 'OLS' and 'GARCH' (Kasman et al., 2011), 'OLS' and'EGARCH' (Lael Joseph &Vezos, 2006), 'MGARCH', 'nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression (NSUR) through GMM and pricing kernel (PK)' approach by Dumas and Solnik (1995) (Tai, 2000), 'OLS' and 'GLS' (generalised -least squares) (Harris et al., 1991), 'SUR', 'non-parametric: Spearman's rank correlation', 'event study', 'OLS' and 'SUR' (Akella & Greenbaum, 1992), 'OLS' and 'event study' (Binici & K€ oksal, 2013), 'Event study' and 'SUR' (Crouzille et al., 2006) and 'Conditional Autoregressive Range' (CARR) model and 'Time-Varying Parameter-Vector Autoregressive' (TVP-VAR) based Diebold-Yilmaz Connectedness Index (Yakup, 2022). ...

The world price of foreign exchange rate risk
  • Citing Article
  • January 1995

Finance