Bart Verspagen's research while affiliated with Maastricht University and other places

Publications (189)

Article
We aim to contribute to the literature on product space and diversification by proposing a number of extensions of the current literature: (1) we propose that the alternative but related idea of a country space also has empirical and theoretical appeal; (2) we argue that the loss of comparative advantage should be an integral part of (testing the e...
Preprint
We aim to contribute to the literature on product space and diversification by proposing a number of extensions of the current literature: (1) we propose that the alternative but related idea of a country space also has empirical and theoretical appeal; (2) we argue that the loss of comparative advantage should be an integral part of (testing the e...
Article
Full-text available
Despite the fact that research and development (R&D) activities are carried out in most countries in public research institutes such as universities and public research organizations, there have been few studies that attempted to estimate the economic impact of such public investment in R&D. In this paper, we analyze the relations between total fac...
Preprint
Full-text available
This article models the process of structural transformation and catching-up in a demand-led Southern economy constrained by its balance of payments. Starting from the Sraffian Supermultiplier Model, we model a dual-sector small open economy divided between traditional and modern sectors that interacts with a technologically advanced Northern econo...
Article
Full-text available
We investigate how economic growth in a demand-driven economy with semi-endogenous productivity growth can be compatible with a stable employment path. Our model uses a Sraffian supermultiplier (SSM), and we endogenize the growth rate of autonomous demand, and semi-endogenize productivity growth. The basic model has a steady state that is consisten...
Article
Recent studies report that technological developments in machine learning and artificial intelligence present a significant risk to jobs in advanced countries. We re-estimate automation risk at the job level, finding sectoral employment structure to be key in determining automation risk at the country level. At the country level, we find a negative...
Chapter
This chapter interprets the transition to a more sustainable type of growth as a technological revolution in progress. The chapter opens with a general discussion of the role of technological revolutions and structural change and economic growth, with special emphasis on the acquisition of foreign technology, exports, and catching-up-based growth....
Technical Report
In this project, that has been financially-supported by the Academic Research Program (ARP) of the European Patent Office (EPO), following the evolutionary concept of technological trajectories (Dosi, 19821) and building upon the literature that proposes computational tools to identify such trajectories in patent citation networks (e.g., Hummon & D...
Article
Full-text available
We present a number of green technology patent landscaping exercises, based on a method that we developed earlier to identify the main technological trends in a very large (i.e., universal) patent citation network comprising all patented technologies. This method extracts a so-called network of main paths, where we interpret each path as a technolo...
Article
Full-text available
We present a model of economic growth that is based on Keynesian ideas (the role of autonomous demand in economic growth) as well as Schumpeterian notions (technological change). Our model fits in the Sraffian supermultiplier (SSM) tradition, and we endogenise the growth rate of autonomous demand, and semi-endogenise productivity growth. The basic...
Article
Full-text available
According to Christopher Freeman technological revolutions play a key role in capitalist development. In this article, we ask to what extent more recent developments are consistent with the perspective advanced by Freeman. We focus on two issues in particular, the climate challenge and what has been dubbed “A Fourth Industrial Revolution” that is,...
Chapter
This chapter reviews the theory and broad empirical evidence of how skill-biased technical change, structural change, and development interact with each other, with the ultimate aim to derive conclusions about inequality related to how different skills are rewarded in the labor market. It is argued that the adoption and adaptation of foreign knowle...
Article
The recent literature on the economic effects of machine learning, robotization and artificial intelligence suggests that there may be an upcoming wave of substitution of human labor by machines. We argue that these new technologies may lead to so-called perpetual growth, i.e. growth of per capita income with a non-progressing state of technology....
Article
Full-text available
We develop a micro simulation model for the macroeconomic business cycle. Our model is based on three main ideas. First, we want to specify how macroeconomic coordination is achieved without a dominating influence of price mechanisms. Second, we want to incorporate the stock-flow-consistent (SFC) approach that has become popular in post-Keynesian m...
Article
Full-text available
Using a vector-error-correction model (VECM) with total factor productivity (TFP), domestic and foreign research and development investment (R&D) as well as GDP, we find that for the Netherlands for the period 1968–2014, extra investment in public and private R&D has a clear positive effect on TFP growth and GDP. Taking into account the costs of th...
Article
Full-text available
Emerging technologies are thought to be shaping the new industrial landscape, potentially creating opportunities for developing countries to industrialise through increased productivity, but also the risk that they may be excluded from the benefits of these technologies through reshoring and by eroding the competitive advantage of developing countr...
Article
Full-text available
We propose a method to identify the main technological trends in a very large (i.e., universal) patent citation network comprising all patented technologies. Our method builds on existing literature that implements a similar procedure, but for much smaller networks, each covering a truncated sub-network comprising only the patents of a selected tec...
Preprint
Full-text available
In this paper, we observe the evolution of different commodity prices in a long-term perspective. We primarily use the “World Bank’s Global Economic Monitor, Commodities”, which covers data from 1960 to 2015 for 52 individual commodities. Following an initial descriptive analysis of commodity price developments, we follow the approach of Erten and...
Preprint
Full-text available
The virtuous Schumpeterian cycle is a process in which constant innovation processes result in a rise in productivity and growth, especially in the manufacturing sector. How countries benefit from this global cycle varies, however, depending on the level of integration in global trade. We discuss developments in manufactured goods exports, as well...
Article
Full-text available
This study builds on the economics and organization literatures to explore whether and how institutions and organizational structure complement or substitute each other to create specific spaces of alignment where specific individual actors’ motivations co-exist. Focusing on university-industry collaborations, the study examines whether and how dif...
Article
Using the World Input–Output Database, this paper calculates total factor productivity (TFP) growth for a sample of 40 economies during the period 1995–2009 to show that TFP growth in Asian economies has been relatively strong. In a number of Asian economies, TFP growth in services has outpaced that in manufacturing. This paper presents a novel str...
Article
Patent boxes are tax incentive schemes aimed at stimulating research and development (R&D) in firms by providing favourable tax rates to profits that can be linked to a specific immaterial asset, such as a patent. Because these profits are often hard to separate from other firm profits, patent boxes have been argued to be prone to tax shifting of f...
Article
We bring together the topics of geographical clusters and technological trajectories, and shift the focus of the analysis of regional innovation to main technological trends rather than firms. We define a number of inventive clusters in the US space and show that long chains of citations mostly take place between these clusters. This is reminiscent...
Article
Since Crepon, Duguet, and Mairesse published their ground-breaking article (‘Research, Innovation and Productivity: An Econometric Analysis at the Firm Level’, 1998), the CDM framework has known a large diffusion, despite being published in a non-indexed journal. The present study is an exploration of the spread and recombination of ‘knowledge’ in...
Article
In this paper, we combine data on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and sectoral employment shares to undertake a decomposition of GDP per capita growth for a sample of 43 Asian and non-Asian economies. We decompose income changes into three components: (i) changes in labor productivity within sectors, (ii) employment shifts across sectors (s...
Article
We present a set of theoretical and empirical papers and briefly describe the specific contributions to the Macroeconomic Dynamics special issue on technology aspects in the process of development.
Article
The transition from low-income developing country to high-income developed country involves a deep process of structural transformation in which the productive structure of an economy changes. In this paper we examine this process of structural change and its link to productivity growth for a sample of Asian countries. In particular, the paper addr...
Article
Full-text available
This study analyses the medium-term effect of R&D expenditure on firm employment growth. Four cross-sectional waves of an innovation survey conducted in the Netherlands have been used to evaluate the effect on firm growth in the five years following the investment. Panel data fixed effect techniques, also allowing for selection bias corrections, in...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The European Economy is currently in a slump, the worst since the 1930s. Although this is often seen as a consequence of the financial crisis that hit the capitalist world in 2007-8, we argue that many of the problems that Europe faces today have long term roots to do with the fact that Europe consists of countries with quite different dynamics and...
Article
Studies of the relationship between FDI and domestic investment reach contradictory findings. We argue that some of the conflicting evidence may be explained by the use of poor proxies for the theoretical concepts and questionable methodological choices. We review the paper of Morrissey and Udomkerdmonkol published in this journal in 2012. Improvem...
Article
Full-text available
We develop a microsimulation model for the macroeconomic business cycle. Our model is based on three main ideas: (i) we want to specify how macroeconomic coordination is achieved without a dominating influence of price mechanisms, (ii) we want to incorporate the stock-flow-consistent approach that has become popular in post-Keynesian macroeconomics...
Article
Full-text available
Input-output economics has become a popular tool to analyse the international fragmentation of value chains, especially now that several multi-regional tables that cover large parts of the global economy have become available. It has been argued that these tables, when analysed with the help of the input-output economics toolbox, can provide better...
Article
This chapter investigates the effect of innovation on the productivity of firms when two technological paths are available: product innovation on the one hand, and process innovation on the other. This is done by estimating a nonlinear multiple-equation econometric model, which allows us to control for both selection and endogeneity. The results su...
Article
Patent holders may choose to protect innovations with single patents or to develop portfolios of multiple, related inventions. We propose a simple decision-making model in which patent-holders may allocate resources to either expanding the number of related patents or investing in higher value of patents in the portfolio. We estimate the derived va...
Article
The aim of the paper is to assess heterogeneity of the innovation process. Using exploratory factor analysis on micro data from the third Community Innovation Survey in 13 countries, we identify four patterns that can be interpreted as research, user, external, and production ingredients of innovation. All too often it is assumed that how firm inno...
Article
This paper applies network analysis to a citation database that combines the key references in the fields of Entrepreneurship (ENT), Innovation Studies (INN) and Science and Technology Studies (STS). We find that citations between the three fields are relatively scarce, as compared to citations within the fields. As a result of this tendency, a clu...
Article
Full-text available
An important topic in the recent literature on firms’ innovation is the question of whether, and to what extent, firms which innovate once have a higher probability of innovating again in subsequent periods. This phenomenon is called the ‘persistence of innovation’. Although the literature has established that innovation persistence is indeed impor...
Article
Introduction Luigi Pasinetti's (1973, 1981) notion of vertically integrated sectors has proven useful in the analysis of such widely varying phenomena as productivity growth (e.g. Dietzenbacher et al., 2000) and pollution (Sánchez-Chóliz and Duarte, 2003). of course, it also plays a central role in Pasinetti's own theoretical analysis of structural...
Article
The empirical literature on economic growth agrees that institutions and governance are important determinants of long-run economic growth rates. As a stylized fact, this literature points to a strong correlation between the level of GDP per capita and the general development level of institutions and governance. However, the growth rate of GDP per...
Article
We examine the diffusion of steam technology across British counties during the eighteenth century. First, we provide new estimates for the regional variations in the timing, pace and extent of usage of steam engines. Our main data source is an updated version of the list of steam engines erected in Britain during the eighteenth century originally...
Article
Since the middle of the eighteenth century, manufacturing has functioned as the main engine of economic growth and development. However, in recent research, questions have been raised concerning the continued importance of the manufacturing sector for economic development. This paper reexamines the role of manufacturing as a driver of growth in dev...
Chapter
Full-text available
Innovation is often seen as carried out by highly educated labor in R&D intensive companies with strong ties to leading centers of excellence in the scientific world. Seen from this angle innovation is a typical "first world" activity. There is, however, another way to look at innovation that goes significantly beyond this high-tech picture. In thi...
Article
We review the literature on national innovation systems. We first focus on the emergence of the concept of innovation systems, reviewing its historical origins and three main flavors (associated to three "founding fathers" of the concept). After this, we discuss how the notion of innovation systems filled a need for providing a broader basis for in...
Article
Full-text available
Innovation is often seen as carried out by highly educated labour in R&D intensive companies with strong ties to leading centers of excellence in the scientific world. Seen from this angle innovation is a typical "first world" activity. There is, however, another way to look at innovation that goes significantly beyond this high-tech picture. In th...
Article
Full-text available
This paper addresses an issue that has been largely ignored so far in the empirical literature on the role of patents in university-industry knowledge transfer: does it matter who owns the patents on university research? We observe that especially in Europe, many patents in which university researchers are listed as inventors are not owned by the u...
Article
The development of the high-pressure expansive engine represented a watershed in the evolution of steam power technology, allowing the attainment of major fuel economies. In Britain, Cornish engineers took the lead in the exploration of this specific technological trajectory. Notwithstanding its superior fuel efficiency was immediately widely discu...
Article
Full-text available
We investigate technological change with regard to CO2 emissions by passenger cars, using a Free Disposal Hull methodology to estimate technological frontiers. We have a sample of cars available in the UK market in the period 2000–2007. Our results show that the rates of technological change (frontier movement) and diffusion (distance to frontier a...
Article
This paper analyses the co-evolution of science, technology and innovation policy and industrial structure in a small, open, resource-based economy (Norway). The contributions of the paper are threefold. First, it develops an evolutionary and historically oriented approach to the study of the development of these policies that may have wide applica...
Article
This is a position paper on the possibilities of informing the (economic and environmental) policy debate by using quantitative evolutionary models. I argue that an evolutionary worldview implies that the existing quantitative modeling tools used for policy analysis are problematic. Then I summarize the main elements of an evolutionary way of analy...
Article
This chapter presents an empirical analysis of the patterns of innovation, economic structure, and industrial dynamics that characterize the Norwegian system at present. It investigates whether the three historical paths of Norwegian economic development identified in Chapter 2 have left 'fingerprints' on the present characteristics of the Norwegia...
Book
The concept of National Innovation Systems is well established in academic research and enthusiastically adopted by policymakers. Yet there are relatively few in-depth studies of how individual national innovation systems have evolved to their present stance. This book provides just that. The contributions of the book are threefold. First, it devel...
Article
This introductory chapter focuses on the co-evolution of science, technology, and innovation policy and industrial structure in Norway. It develops an evolutionary and historically oriented approach to the study of the development of science, technology, and innovation policy that may have wide applicability. Moreover, it focuses on a particular ty...
Article
Full-text available
The scholarly literature on innovation was for a long time not very voluminous. But as shown in the paper, this is now rapidly changing. New journals, professional associations and organizational units within universities focusing on innovation have also been formed. This paper explores the cognitive and organizational characteristics of this emerg...
Article
Firms increasingly rely upon external actors for their innovation process. Interaction with these actors may occur formally (i.e. through a collaboration agreement) or informally (i.e. external actors acts as sources of knowledge). This paper analyses the reasons why firms consider it to be important to develop formal and informal external linkages...
Conference Paper
This paper analyses the co-evolution of science, technology and innovation policy and industrial structure in a small, resource-based economy (Norway). The contributions of the paper are threefold. First, it develops an evolutionary and historically oriented approach to the study of the development of science, technology and innovation policy based...
Article
This paper employs data from an extensive European survey to produce one of the first systematic assessments of the private economic value of patents. The estimated mean of our patent value distribution is higher than 3 million Euros, the median is about one-tenth, and the mode is around a few thousand Euros. This is in line with previous findings...
Article
We use patent citation networks to study the dynamics of technical change in Ethernet, a standard for data communication. We first consider the evolution of the broad technological system of Local Area Networks (LANs) and we identify the most significant inventions within the specific subfield of Ethernet. Then we analyse the structure of connectiv...
Article
Full-text available
The aim of the paper is to assess heterogeneity of the innovation process. Using exploratory factor analysis on micro data from the third Community Innovation Survey in 13 countries, we identify four factors that that can be interpreted as research, user, external and production ingredients of innovation. All too often it is assumed that the differ...
Article
Full-text available
The aim of the paper is to assess heterogeneity of the innovation process. Using exploratory factor analysis on micro data from the third Community Innovation Survey in 13 countries, we identify four factors that that can be interpreted as research, user, external and production ingredients of innovation. All too often it is assumed that the differ...
Article
This paper addresses the question of whether patent citations are useful indicators of technology flows. We exploit the distinction between citations added by inventors and patent examiners. We use information from the search reports of European Patent Office patent examiners to construct our dataset of patenting activity in Europe and the US, and...
Article
We estimate the diffusion of micro cogeneration systems (MiCoGen) using hydrogen produced from natural gas in the Netherlands for the 2000–2050 period on the basis of economical factors. The diffusion is important for the transition to a hydrogen economy based on renewables, with natural gas paving the way for hydrogen from renewables. For three sc...
Chapter
Full-text available
We discuss the relevance of long memory for the investigation of long-term economic growth and then briefly review the state-of-the-art of statistical estimators of long memory on small samples and their application to economic datasets. We discuss theoretical mechanisms for long memory such as cross-sectional heterogeneity. We argue that this endo...
Article
This paper reviews the economic literature on the role of fees in patent systems. Two main research questions are usually addressed: the impact of patent fees on the behavior of applicants and the question of optimal fees. Studies in the former group confirm that a range of fees affect the behavior of applicants and suggest that a patent is an inel...
Article
Full-text available
Based on a survey of the inventors of 9017 European patented inventions, this paper provides new information about the characteristics of European inventors, the sources of their knowledge, the importance of formal and informal collaborations, the motivations to invent, and the actual use and economic value of the patents.
Article
Full-text available
This paper shows that there have been important changes in how the global economic system works. A high growth regime has gradually been substituted by one of low growth. This change appears to be especially pronounced for small economies. Until the end of the 1980s, the scope for technological imitation was a significant factor in generating growt...
Article
Technological change is argued to be taking place along ordered and selective patterns, shaped jointly by technological and scientific principles, and economic and other societal factors. Historical, descriptive analysis is often used to analyze these "trajectories". Recently, quantitative methods have been proposed to map these trajectories. It is...
Article
Full-text available
We extend an earlier model of innovation dynamics based on percolation by adding endogenous R&D search by economically motivated firms. The {0,1} seeding of the technology lattice is now replaced by draws from a lognormal distribution for technology ‘difficulty’. Firms are rewarded for successful innovations by increases in their R&D budget. We com...
Article
Full-text available
Technological innovation depends on knowledge developed by scientific research. The num-ber of citations made in patents to the scientific literature has been suggested as an indicator of this process of transfer of knowledge from science to technology. We provide an intersec-toral insight into this indicator, by breaking down patent citations into...
Article
This paper discusses the possibility of a spatial hierarchy of innovation and growth dynamics in Europe. A spatial hierarchy is understood as a geographical clustering of regions, where important differences exist in terms of innovation and growth dynamics between the clusters. The literature on regional growth and innovation is briefly scanned. Af...
Article
The primary aim of the paper is to place current methodological discussions in macroeconometric modeling contrasting the ‘theory first’ versus the ‘data first’ perspectives in the context of a broader methodological framework with a view to constructively appraise them. In particular, the paper focuses on Colander’s argument in his paper “Economist...