B. Chakrapani’s research while affiliated with Cochin University of Science and Technology and other places

Kerala, located at the southwest tip of India, witnessed disastrous floods during the monsoon seasons of two consecutive years, 2018 and 2019. This paper provides a detailed analysis of these two flood events using data from multiple sources. The unusually unstable and convective nature of the 2019 event, as detectable in its higher cloud tops and evidently fuelled by anomalously warm local sea temperatures, raises concerns regarding the changing patterns of rainfall over the southern parts of the west coast of India. Specifically, our analysis reveals that the flood of 2019 in Kerala satisfies the criteria for a mesoscale cloudburst (MsCB) event, more common in the north but a very rare and never before reported phenomenon in the Kerala region. Rainfall exceeding 50 mm in 2 h has been reported from many places between 8.00 and 22.00 UTC on the August 8, 2019. Satellite-derived rainfall and cloud microphysical parameters further reveal the uniqueness of the 2019 MsCB event. If 2019 is a harbinger of how global warming may continue to affect this region, transformations of the cloud structure and the recurrence and character of intense rainfall events could pose a major threat to the highly vulnerable Western Ghats ecosystems.

Realized changes in the climate over Kerala received more attention during recent times under the back to back drought conditions prevailing over the state. The year 2016 registered as one of the worst and extreme drought year over Kerala in recent past. This extreme drought condition may be attributed to the combined effect of realized changes in the mean climate state as well as the climate variability.Both the recent and historic drought events over Kerala is examined and its possible impacts on different sectors like agriculture and water resource are studied using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Historical occurrence of both the short term and long term water stress associated with deficit rainfall during monsoon and post-monsoon season is presented in the paper. It is found that south west monsoon rainfall over Kerala is decreasing over south Kerala during recent decades, whereas the post-monsoon rainfall is found to be increasing especially over south Kerala. There exists a weak relationship between Pacific SST and Kerala rainfall. Trend analysis of SPI on different time scale showed negative trend and that negative trend increases with increasing time scale.