B. A. Ashabokov’s research while affiliated with Institute of Informatics Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences and other places

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Publications (36)


Sinusoidal regression model for assessment of mudflows dynamics
  • Article

January 2024

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1 Read

Nauka Innovatsii Tekhnologii

B. A. Ashabokov

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A. A. Tashilova

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L. A. Kesheva

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N. V. Teunova

A sinusoidal model of the dynamics of mudflow series, temperature and precipitation in the warm seasons in the high-mountain zone of Kabardino-Balkaria complements the previously obtained statisti­cal analysis of the average characteristics of the series, results of a comparative analysis of their average values for two subperiods (base 1953-1983 and modern 1984-2015), improves the quality of the unidirectional regression model of the number of mudflows and meteorological parameters over the past 60 years. The article shows that the use of the sinusoidal regression function makes it possible to identify the cyclicity of time series, which will help in assessing the dynamics of mudflows taking into account long-term changes in climate variables. The increased efficiency of the models is confirmed by the criteria. The coefficient of determination R2, determined for lin­ear regression models, increases in sinusoidal regression models: for series with the number of mudflows from R2 = 0.067 to R2 = 0.645, for precipitation from R2 = 0.028 to R2 = 0.653, for temperatures from R2 = 0.012 to R2 = 0.829. In the sinusoidal regression model, using eight harmonics, short-period ripples are added against the back­ground of slow changes. In the series with mudflows, these are short periods from T = 2.4 years to T = 10.7 years against the background of the main period T = 62 years. In the series of temperatures there are short periods from T = 1.9 years to T = 5.2 years to a long period T = 63 years. In the series with precipitation, a long period T = 20.1 years is added to the short periods from T = 2.2 years to T = 8.7 years. The identified long-period fluctuations in mudflows and temperatures (T = 62 years, 63 years) are associated with significant and nonlin­ear changes in the elements of these series during the period under study. In contrast to these series, the precipitation series is dominated by short-period changes (T = 4 years) against a background of slow fluctuations with a period of T = 20.1 years.


Method for Reducing Risks in Agriculture Associated with Droughts, Taking into Account the Probability of Their Occurrence

October 2023

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4 Reads

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1 Citation

UNIVERSITY NEWS NORTH-CAUCASIAN REGION NATURAL SCIENCES SERIES

B.A. Ashabokov

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L.M. Fedchenko

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[...]

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M.B. Ashabokova

The increase in mean and extreme temperatures against the background of almost unchanged precipitation in the south of the European territory of Russia (ETR) leads to a number of changes affecting agricultural production. The combination of such unfavorable environmental factors as high temperature and water shortage can have a relatively short-term, but strong impact on the crop industry with long-term consequences. It is expected that, taking into account current trends in climate change, the foothill and plane zones in the south of the ETR will be in an arid zone. Thus water scarcity has been and remains a critical factor in determining crop production in the region. The paper discusses the mechanisms of the impact of climate change on agriculture. It is noted that the relevance of developing effective and cost-effective for practical use methods to reduce risks in this industry associated with extreme weather events, including droughts, is increasing and becoming an essential condition for ensuring the country's food security. The features of information support of the problem of developing models for reducing risks associated with droughts are noted. A method for reducing agricultural losses associated with this weather event is outlined. It is based on exploiting the different vulnerabilities of crops by hazardous weather events. The possibilities of practical use of the method under conditions of climate change are touched upon, and the main tasks arising along this path are discussed. The results of model calculations, which were carried out in order to study the effectiveness of the method, are presented. It is noted that, on the basis of the proposed approach, flexible and quickly responding to changes in the conditions for the functioning of agriculture, systems can be created to reduce the loss of agriculture from adverse weather events.


FORMATION OF A PLAN FOR ADAPTATION OF THE REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL SECTOR TO CLIMATE CHANGE: TASKS AND SOLUTION METHODS

October 2023

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1 Citation

Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya

The problems of adaptation of the regional agricultural production to climate change are discussed. It is noted that for this level it is more appropriate to consider the problem for the agroindustrial complex as a whole, i. e., for the “agriculture-processing industry” system. The formulations of the goals and tasks of the adaptation of the mentioned system to climate change are given, the concept of the adaptation interval is introduced. The methods and results of solving the problems of formation and coordination of target indicators of the agroindustrial complex and determination of the trajectory of its development in the adaptation interval are described.


NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE AEROSOL COMPOSITION OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE FORMATION OF MACRO- AND MICROSTRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS

May 2023

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5 Reads

IZVESTIYA SFedU ENGINEERING SCIENCES

В настоящее время физика облаков и активных воздействий на них постепенно пере-ходит от этапа изучения "элементарных" облачных процессов к этапу изучения облаков вцелом с учетом их системных свойств. Одним из направлений исследований на этом этапестановится изучение роли системных свойств облаков в формировании их макро- и микро-структурных характеристик. Именно эти свойства являются основными факторами,влияющими на формирование структуры облаков. В статье представлены некоторые ре-зультаты исследований роли одного из таких свойств облаков, а именно взаимодействияоблаков с окружающей их атмосферой (свойство иерархичности систем). В качестве спо-соба их взаимодействия рассмотрен механизм, обусловленный аэрозольным составом ат-мосферы. Методика исследований основана на предположении, что на интенсивностьобразования кристаллов в облаках влияет содержание в атмосфере аэрозольных частицдостаточной концентрации, обладающих льдообразующими свойствами (ядер сублима-ции). Для расчетов использовалась трехмерная нестационарная модель конвективных об-лаков. Интенсивность образования кристаллов в облаке менялась путем варьирования зна-чения параметра в выражении для источника кристаллов в модельных уравнениях для об-лачной среды. В работе также обсуждается современное состояние проблемы активныхвоздействий на конвективные облака с целью управления процессами осадкообразования.Для осуществления успешного активного воздействия необходимо определение локальнойобласти в облаке, в которой условия благоприятны для воздействия и концентрации час-тиц реагента, которую следует обеспечить в данной области в каждый момент времени.Модельные расчеты показали, что незначительное увеличение содержания аэрозольныхчастиц в атмосфере привело к увеличению значений максимальной лёдности и суммарнойводности, а также лёдности при одновременном уменьшении максимальной водности воблаке. При этом его макроструктурные характеристики практически не изменились.Дальнейшее решение задач требует разработки эффективных методологий моделирова-ния активного воздействия на конвективные облака.


METHOD FOR REDUCING RISKS IN AGRICULTURE DUE TO HAILSTORMINGS

May 2023

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2 Reads

IZVESTIYA SFedU ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Ключевыми проблемами обеспечения условий развития общества в настоящее времястановятся адаптация различных сфер деятельности к изменению климата и снижениерисков, связанных с опасными погодными явлениями. В статье обсуждаются возможныеподходы к снижению рисков в сельском хозяйстве, связанных с градобитиями, затронутыособенности их информационного обеспечения. Предложены один метод решения даннойзадачи и модель для его реализации, разработанная в рамках теории принятия решений. Ме-тод решения задачи отнесен нами к "пассивным" методам, которые не предполагают вме-шательства в процессы формирования градовых осадков в облаках. В качестве механизмаснижения рисков в предложенном методе используется тот факт, что уязвимость сельско-хозяйственных культур градом различна для различных культур. Соответственно, управле-ние рисками осуществляется путем подбора структуры производства сельскохозяйствен-ных культур с учетом особенностей их уязвимости данным погодным явлением, а такжеусловиями, наложенными на объемы производства сельскохозяйственной продукции. В ста-тье обсуждаются основные задачи, возникающие на пути практического использования дан-ного метода. Для анализа эффективности метода для производственно-экономических усло-вий степной климатической зоны Кабардино-Балкарской республики проведены модельныерасчеты. При этом для определения возможных состояний градовых процессов была исполь-зована частота выпадения града (число дней с градом на рассматриваемой территории загод). Пользуясь временным рядом данного показателя за период 1958-2018 гг., частота выпа-дения града в рассматриваемой климатической зоне была представлена в виде дискретнойслучайной величины с известным законом распределения. Это дало возможность рассматри-вать задачу снижения потерь сельского хозяйства как задачу принятия решений в условияхриска. Результаты модельных расчетов показали высокую эффективность метода для сни-жения потерь сельского хозяйства от градобитий. Важным достоинством метода являет-ся то, что практическое его использование будет связано с незначительными затратами.




On а Model for Drough Risk Reduction in Agriculture

January 2023

Nauka Innovatsii Tekhnologii

Introduction. The article analyzes the changes in moisture content of the soil in the south of the European territory of Russia (ETR) associated with climate warming. It is shown that both in the foothill and steppe climatic zones there is a tendency to decrease this parameter, which greatly increases the relevance of developing methods to reduce risks in agriculture associated with droughts. A model based on different vulnerability of agricultural crops to this dangerous weather phenomenon is presented, the results of model calculations for the conditions of the steppe zone of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (KBR) are presented. Materials and research methods. When conducting research, the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient was used as an indicator characterizing the moisture content of the soil. The values of this coefficient were calculated using data from 13 weather stations on the amount of precipitation and air temperature for 1961-2018. The development of a risk reduction model in this paper is considered within the framework of decision theory. As a target in the problem, you can use a function that describes the gain or loss of agriculture. Using this method of choosing an action to reduce risks avoids the formation of a set of actions from which it is necessary to choose the most appropriate one. Research results and their discussion. The results of the calculations carried out in the work showed that the consequence of climate change in the south of the EPR will be a significant deterioration in the conditions for the production of agricultural products. The consequences of such a trend will be extremely negative for agricultural production in the area. As a result of solving the problem, it is possible to determine the optimal structure of crop production from the point of view of the criterion used, taking into account the probability of droughts. As such a criterion, the maximum expected volume of crop production was used, taking into account the impact of droughts. Conclusions. A method has been proposed to reduce the losses of agriculture from droughts, taking into account their different vulnerability to various crops. The model was written in the framework of linear programming, which makes it possible to determine the optimal structure of agricultural production in terms of the criterion used. The method can be used in regions with different production and economic conditions.


CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE CONDITIONS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PRODUCTION IN THE POOTHMOUNTAIN AND PLAIN CLIMATIC ZONE OF THE NORTH

January 2023

An analysis of changes in the conditions for the production of agricultural crops in the foothill and lowland climatic zones of the North Caucasus was carried out. For this purpose, the values of the hydrothermal moisture coefficient of Selyaninov were determined for the period of time 1961-2022. It is shown that throughout the entire territory of this region, which plays a significant role in ensuring the country’s food security, there is a decrease in the values of the moisture coefficient. According to the results of the analysis, this trend is due to a decrease in moisture content in the soil due to rising temperatures (the amount of precipitation remains virtually unchanged). Some approaches to reducing agricultural losses from these factors are discussed. One method for reducing agricultural losses from droughts is outlined. It is based on the fact that vulnerability to this natural phenomenon is different for different crops. The results of model calculations carried out to analyze the effectiveness of the method are presented.


ADAPTATION OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE BASIS FOR ENSURING FOOD SECURITY

January 2023

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2 Reads

The results of an analysis of changes in the conditions of agricultural crop production in the flat zone of the south of the ETR are presented. For this purpose, the results of calculations of the hydrothermal moisture coefficient of Selyaninov in the interval 1961-2022 were used. It has been shown that there is a steady decrease in the moisture coefficient. The problems of reducing agricultural losses associated with deteriorating soil moisture availability are discussed. One approach to solving this problem is to adapt agricultural production to climate change. It is noted that at the regional level it is more appropriate to consider the problem of adaptation for the agro-industrial complex as a whole. The formulation of adaptation goals and objectives of the adaptation plan for the specified sector of the economy to climate change is provided.


Citations (9)


... Ряд работ посвящен численному моделированию конвективного облака в различных регионах. В [Lesev et al., 2021] представлена трехмерная модель конвективного облака с учетом электрических процессов. Исследованы новые аспекты механизма формирования электрического заряда и поля в облаках. ...

Reference:

Russian Studies on Atmospheric Electricity in 2019–2022
3D MODEL OF A CONVECTIVE CLOUD: THE INTERACTION OF MICROPHYSICAL AND ELECTRICAL PROCESSES
  • Citing Article
  • June 2021

JP Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer

... Например, для определения сезонности и циклов временного ряда температур проводят спектральный и автокорреляционный анализ [3,15,20]. Также исследователи используют сингулярно-спектральный анализ -это позволило провести анализ и прогноз рядов летних температур юга европейской территории России (ЕТР) [14,19]. Использование данных методов подтверждает проблему глобального потепления, на их основе также строят прогностические модели [1,13,16]. ...

THE SUMMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THE METHOD OF SINGULAR-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS IN THE SOUTH OF RUSSIA IN 2019-2023
  • Citing Article
  • January 2020

Nauka Innovatsii Tekhnologii

... Очевидно, что решение этих проблем требует проведения исследований изменений климата и их последствий для различных сфер деятельности, формулировки задач адаптации отраслей экономики к из- УСПЕХИ СОВРЕМЕННОГО ЕСТЕСТВОЗНАНИЯ № 9, 2022   ФИЗИКО-МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ (25.00.30)  менениям климата и разработки методов их решения, разработки методов снижения рисков, связанных с экстремальными погодными явлениями и т.д. [12][13][14]. ...

Analysis of Changes in the Natural and Climatic Conditions of the Functioning of the Construction Industry (Operation of Buildings and Structures) in the Region
  • Citing Article
  • Publisher preview available
  • September 2018

... Очевидно, что решение этих проблем требует проведения исследований изменений климата и их последствий для различных сфер деятельности, формулировки задач адаптации отраслей экономики к из- УСПЕХИ СОВРЕМЕННОГО ЕСТЕСТВОЗНАНИЯ № 9, 2022   ФИЗИКО-МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ (25.00.30)  менениям климата и разработки методов их решения, разработки методов снижения рисков, связанных с экстремальными погодными явлениями и т.д. [12][13][14]. ...

Modeling Risk Reduction in Agriculture Associated with Dangerous Agrometeorological Phenomena

KnE Life Sciences

... Spatially, there was no clear pattern in changes in extreme precipitation indicators across seasons in 1960-2022. In winter, the maximum increase in indicators was observed on the coast of the Caspian Sea, where SDII, Rx1day and Rx5day increased by 0.23 mm/day per decade (Makhachkala), Ashabokov et al. (2018) also demonstrated an increase in annual precipitation in the high-altitude and foothill regions of the North Caucasus from 1961 to 2015, increased at a rate from 1.99 to 21.12 mm/decade. They also reported that this increase occurred mainly due to an increase in precipitation in spring, autumn and, partly, in the winter season (Ashabokov et al. 2018), which is also consistent with the results of our study. ...

Changes of temperature and precipitation regimes in the south of European Russia in 1961 - 2015

MAUSAM

... All these challenges are also characteristic of the mountainous regions of the Caucasus. Over the past 30-40 years, the Caucasus has seen an increase in annual and seasonal temperatures, especially in summer, by an average of 0.5-0.7°C, a drier climate, and a growing frequency and intensity of meteorological extremes (Assessment 2022; Kozachek et al. 2017;Shvarev et al. 2021;Tashilova et al. 2019). Rapid glacier retreat (Solomina et al. 2024;Tielidze et al. 2022;Toropov et al. 2019) has cut off a lot of water in places where it is already scarce, such as the South Caucasus and the eastern flank of the North Caucasus. ...

Analysis of Climate Change in the Caucasus Region: End of the 20th–Beginning of the 21st Century

Climate

... Reference [45] describes that in all climatic zones of the region, changes in mean annual temperatures, unlike precipitation, were synchronous in time (Figure 2). In addition to the main climate-forming factors (radiation and circulation), climate of the Caucasus region is greatly influenced by the relief of the terrain, the orography of the terrain, and the distance of weather stations from each other. ...

CLIMATIC CHANGES OF MEAN AND EXTREME VALUES OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTH OF EUROPEAN RUSSIA
  • Citing Article
  • January 2017

Fundamental and Applied Climatology

... However, climate change, manifested in an increase in humidification deficiency, may slow down this development (Lukyanets and Bragin 2021). Despite an overall positive dinamics in annual precipitation across the southern regions of Russia, the increase in precipitation is highly uneven throughout the area (Ashabokov et al. 2017;Vyshkvarkova 2021). As a result, specific regions within the South, such as, for example, the eastern part of the Rostov region and the Republic of Kalmykia, have experienced humid warming alongside heightened precipitation in certain time frames (Shumova 2020;Gudko et al. 2023). ...

Trends in precipitation parameters in the climate zones of southern Russia (1961–2011)
  • Citing Article
  • March 2017

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

... In this case, the proportionality coefficient depends on the temperature of the growing particle, as well as on the concentration and chemical composition of impurities in the cloud water and takes a value from 10 -10 to 10 -8 C/g. The formation of microscopic fragments during freezing of droplets is taken into account as follows [7]: ...

Numerical Simulation of Thermodynamic, Microstructural, and Electric Characteristics of Convective Clouds at the Growth and Mature Stages
  • Citing Article
  • April 2014

Radiophysics and Quantum Electronics