Arthur D. Frankel's research while affiliated with United States Geological Survey and other places

Publications (124)

Article
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We explore the response of ground motions to topography during large crustal fault earthquakes by simulating several magnitude 6.5–7.0 rupture scenarios on the Seattle fault, Washington State. Kinematic simulations are run using a 3D spectral element code and a detailed seismic velocity model for the Puget Sound region. This model includes realisti...
Article
The 2021 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the previous two-decade-old assessment by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard forecasts (...
Article
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The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is the scientific foundation of seismic design regulations in the United States and is regularly updated to consider the best available science and data. The 2018 update of the conterminous U.S. NSHM includes significant changes to the underlying ground motion models (GMMs), mos...
Article
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We use converted body-wave phases from local earthquakes to constrain depth to basement and average attenuation relations for the Seattle basin in Washington and the Tualatin basin in Oregon. P-, P-to-S-(Ps), S-to-P-(Sp), and S-wave arrivals are present in three-component recordings of magnitude 2.5–4.0 earthquakes at seismic stations located in th...
Article
Full-text available
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is the scientific foundation of seismic design regulations in the United States and is regularly updated to consider the best available science and data. The 2018 update of the conterminous US NSHM includes major changes to the underlying ground motion models (GMMs). Mo...
Technical Report
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The ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system has been live since October 2019 for the testing of public alerting to mobile devices in California and will soon begin testing this modality in Oregon and Washington. The Pacific Northwest presents new challenges and opportunities for ShakeAlert owing to the different types of earthquakes that occur...
Article
The 2018 US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) incorporates new data and updated science to improve the underlying earthquake and ground motion forecasts for the conterminous United States. The NSHM considers many new data and component input models: (1) new earthquakes between 2013 and 2017 and updated earthquake magnitudes for...
Article
Site response, sedimentary basin amplification, and earthquake stress drops for the Portland, Oregon area were determined using accelerometer recordings at 16 sites of 10 local earthquakes with MD 2.6–4.0. A nonlinear inversion was applied to calculate site response (0.5–10 Hz), corner frequencies, and seismic moments from the Fourier spectra of th...
Article
We develop ensemble ShakeMaps for various magnitude 9 (M 9) earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust. Ground-shaking estimates are based on 30 M 9 Cascadia earthquake scenarios, which were selected using a logic-tree approach that varied the hypocenter location, down-dip rupture limit, slip distribution, and location of strong-motion-generating subev...
Article
Sedimentary basins in the Puget Sound region, Washington State, increase ground-motion intensity and duration of shaking during local earthquakes. We analyze Pacific Northwest Seismic Network and U.S. Geological Survey strong-motion recordings of five local earthquakes (M 3.9–6.8), including the 2001 Nisqually earthquake, to characterize sedimentar...
Article
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During 2017–2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated as follows: (1) an updated seismicity catalog was incorporated, which includes new earthquakes that occurred from 2013 to 2017; (2) in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), new ground motion models were updated that incorporate updated median...
Article
Seismic hazard associated with Cascadia megathrust earthquakes is strongly dependent on the landward rupture extent and heterogeneous fault properties. We use 3D numerical simulations and a seismic velocity model for Cascadia to estimate coseismic deformation due to M 9–9.2 earthquake scenarios. Our earthquake source model is based on observations...
Article
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Deep sedimentary basins amplify long‐period shaking from seismic waves, increasing the seismic hazard for cities sited on such basins. We perform 3‐D simulations of point source earthquakes distributed around the Seattle and Tacoma basins in Washington State to examine the dependence of basin amplification on source azimuth, depth, and earthquake t...
Article
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Ground motions have been simulated for a magnitude 9 (M9) Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake, which will affect the Puget Lowland region, including cities underlain by the Seattle, Everett, and Tacoma sedimentary basins. The current national seismic maps do not account for the effects of these basins on the risk-targeted Maximum Considered Earthqu...
Article
We used a combination of 3D finite-difference simulations (< 1 Hz) and 1D stochastic synthetics (> 1 Hz) to generate broadband (0-10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for numerous M w 9 earthquake rupture scenarios on the Cascadia megathrust. Slip consists of multiple high-stress-drop subevents (M w 8) with short rise times on the deeper portions of the fa...
Article
We have produced a large set of broadband (0-10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for M w 9.0 earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust by combining synthetic seismograms derived from 3D finite-difference simulations (≤ 1 Hz) with finitesource, stochastic synthetics (≥ 1 Hz).We used a compound rupture model consisting of high stress drop M w 8 subevents super...
Conference Paper
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The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) produces long-duration, large-magnitude earthquakes that could severely affect structures in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). The impact of synthetic M9.0 CSZ earthquakes on buildings in the Pacific Northwest is studied using eight reinforced concrete wall archetypes that range from 4 to 40 stories. These archetypes w...
Article
We compare broadband synthetic seismograms with recordings of the 2003 Mw 8.3 Tokachi-Oki earthquake to evaluate a compound rupture model, in which slip on the fault consists of multiple high-stress-drop asperities superimposed on a background slip distribution with longer rise times. Low-frequency synthetics (<1 Hz) are calculated using determinis...
Article
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Deep sedimentary basins are known to increase the intensity of ground motions, but this effect is implicitly considered in seismic hazard maps used in U.S. building codes. The basin amplification of ground motions from subduction earthquakes is particularly important in the Pacific Northwest, where the hazard at long periods is dominated by such ea...
Article
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We examine the variability of long-period (T ≥ 1 s) earthquake ground motions from 3D simulations of Mw 7 earthquakes on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah, from a set of 96 rupture models with varying slip distributions, rupture speeds, slip velocities, and hypocenter locations. Earthquake ruptures were prescribed on a 3D f...
Article
Strong-motion recordings of the Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake were modeled using a compound rupture model consisting of (1) a background slip distribution with large correlation lengths, relatively low slip velocity, and long peak rise time of slip of about 10 s and (2) high stress-drop subevents (asperities) on the deeper portion of the rupture with mom...
Article
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An international, interdisciplinary effort to study and observe earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, tsunamis, and continent building at subduction zones could advance science and protect communities.
Article
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New seismic hazard maps have been developed for the conterminous United States using the latest data, models, and methods available for assessing earthquake hazard. The hazard models incorporate new information on earthquake rupture behavior observed in recent earthquakes; fault studies that use both geologic and geodetic strain rate data; earthqua...
Article
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We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters th...
Article
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Several aspects of the earthquake characterization were changed for the Pacific Northwest portion of the 2014 update of the national seismic hazard maps, reflecting recent scientific findings. New logic trees were developed for the recurrence parameters of M8-9 earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) and for the eastern edge of their rupt...
Article
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The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) have been an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States for the past several decades. These maps present earthquake ground shaking intensities at specified probabilities of being exceeded over a 50-year time period. The previous version of the NSHMs was developed in 2008; dur...
Article
We ran finite-difference earthquake simulations for great subduction zone earthquakes in Cascadia to model the effects of source and path heterogeneity for the purpose of improving strong-motion predictions. We developed a rupture model for large subduction zone earthquakes based on a k(-2) slip spectrum and scale-dependent rise times by representi...
Article
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The 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Map updates are based on new assessments of the probable locations, rates and sizes of future earthquakes and corresponding ground shaking. New data, methods, and models were discussed at workshops and reviewed by an external steering committee. The new models incorporate updated earthquake catalogs, new smooth...
Article
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The national seismic hazard maps for the conterminous United States have been updated to account for new methods, models, and data that have been obtained since the 2008 maps were released (Petersen and others, 2008). The input models are improved from those implemented in 2008 by using new ground motion models that have incorporated about twice as...
Article
We demonstrate the value of utilizing broadband synthetic seismograms to assess regional seismically induced landslide hazard. Focusing on a case study of an M-w 7.0 Seattle fault earthquake in Seattle, Washington, we computed broadband synthetic seismograms that account for rupture directivity and 3D basin amplification. We then adjusted the compu...
Article
Strong-motion records from KiK-net and K-NET, along with 1 sample/s Global Positioning System (GPS) records from GEONET, were analyzed to determine the location, timing, and slip of subevents of the M 9 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Timing of arrivals on stations along the coast shows that the first subevent was located closer to the coast than subevent...
Article
Position time series from Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the New Madrid region were differenced to determine the relative motions between stations. Uncertainties in rates were estimated using a three-component noise model consisting of white, flicker, and random walk noise, following the methodology of Langbein, 2004. Significant motio...
Article
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We determine frequency-dependent attenuation 1=Q…f† for the Hispanio-la region using direct S and L g waves over five distinct passbands from 0.5 to 16 Hz. Data consist of 832 high-quality vertical and horizontal component waveforms recorded on short-period and broadband seismometers from the devastating 12 January 2010 M 7.0 Haiti earthquake and t...
Article
The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) utilizes a database of over 500 faults across the conterminous United States to constrain earthquake source models for probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Additionally, the fault database is now being used to produce a suite of deterministic ground motions for earthq...
Article
Using a finite-fault rupture model, we ran a finite difference code to simulate a variety of Mw 8 and larger events on the Cascadia subduction zone using a 3D regional velocity model and two different 3D velocity models for the Seattle basin. Our results reveal the magnitude and duration of shaking that should be expected in the built environment f...
Article
We analyze frequency-dependent attenuation of Lg waves, 1/Q(f), for numerous tectonic environments. Tectonic environments studied include: south Pacific oceanic subduction zone near Samoa, the oblique subduction zone off Hispaniola, two continental-oceanic subduction zones in Chile and Alaska, the continental-continental collision zone of the Tibet...
Article
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We have produced probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Haiti for peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations that include the hazard from the major crustal faults, subduction zones, and background earthquakes. The hazard from the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden, Septentrional, and Matheux-Neiba fault zones was estimated using fault slip...
Article
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Four independent ground-motion simulation codes are used to model the strong ground motion for three earthquakes: 1994 M(w) 6.7 Northridge, 1989 M(w) 6.9 Loma Prieta, and 1999 M(w) 7.5 Izmit. These 12 sets of synthetics are used to make estimates of the variability in ground-motion predictions. In addition, ground-motion predictions over a grid of...
Article
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In this paper we present a methodology, data, and regression equations for calculating the fault rupture hazard at sites near steeply dipping, strike-slip faults. We collected and digitized on-fault and off-fault displacement data for 9 global strike-slip earthquakes ranging from moment magnitude M 6.5 to M 7.6 and supplemented these with displacem...
Article
We have produced probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Seattle for 1 Hz spectral acceleration, using over five hundred 3D finite-difference simulations of earthquakes on the Seattle fault, Southern Whidbey Island fault, and Cascadia subduction zone, as well as for random deep and shallow earthquakes at various locations. The 3D velocity model was va...
Article
Three-dimensional, finite-difference simulations of a realistic finite-fault rupture on the southern Hayward fault are used to evaluate the effects of random, correlated velocity perturbations on predicted ground motions. Velocity perturbations are added to a three-dimensional (3D) regional seismic velocity model of the San Francisco Bay Area using...
Article
The probabilistic methodology developed by the U.S. Geological Survey is applied to a new seismic hazard assessment for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Modeled seismic sources include gridded historical seismicity, subduction-interface and strike-slip faults with known slip rates, and two broad zones of crustal extension with seismicity ra...
Article
The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as...
Article
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The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007) presents the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). This model comprises a time-independent (Poisson-process) earthquake rate model, developed jointly with the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program and a time-dependent earthquake-probability...
Article
Seismograms of local earthquakes recorded in Seattle exhibit surface waves in the Seattle basin and basin-edge focusing of S waves. Spectral ratios of S waves and later arrivals at 1 Hz for stiff-soil sites in the Seattle basin show a dependence on the direction to the earthquake, with earthquakes to the south and southwest producing higher average...
Article
We characterize the shear-wave velocity (Vs) of soil deposits in lower Manhattan at six sites using the SPAC and HVSR microtremor methods. The soil Vs ranges from 140 m/s to 300 m/s over bedrock. We believe that bedrock depth is constrained to +/-15% with these microtremor data, but an accurate quantification of bedrock Vs is unattainable because o...
Article
We present a summary of the data and analyses leading to the revision of the time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Alaska and the Aleutians. These maps represent a revision of existing maps based on newly obtained data, and reflect best current judgments about methodology and approach. They have been prepared following the procedure...
Article
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We have produced probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Seattle using over 500 3D finite-difference simulations of ground motions from earthquakes in the Seattle fault zone, Cascadia subduction zone, South Whidbey Island fault, and background shallow and deep source areas. The maps depict 1 Hz response spectral accelerations with 2, 5, and 10% proba...
Article
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Ground-shaking hazard maps based on sound earth-science research are effective tools for mitigating damage from future earthquakes. Assuming that future earthquakes will occur on active faults or near previous events and that the ground shaking from these events will fall within the range of globally recorded ground motions leads to probabilistic h...
Article
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A 3D seismic velocity and attenuation model is developed for Santa Clara Valley, California, and its surrounding uplands to predict ground motions from scenario earthquakes. The model is developed using a variety of geologic and geophysical data. Our starting point is a 3D geologic model developed primarily from geologic mapping and gravity and mag...
Article
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1] A shallow bedrock fold imaged by a 1.3-km long high-resolution shear-wave seismic reflection profile in west Seattle focuses seismic waves arriving from the south. This focusing may cause a pocket of amplified ground shaking and the anomalous chimney damage observed in earthquakes of 1949, 1965 and 2001. The 200-m bedrock fold at $300-m depth is...
Article
We have constructed preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Seattle based on 3D finite-difference simulations of ground motions from the earthquake sources that affect Seattle: shallow crustal earthquakes including earthquakes on the Seattle fault, deep earthquakes in the subducted slab, and great earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zo...
Article
The ground motion hazard for Sumatra and the Malaysian peninsula is calculated in a probabilistic framework, using procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps. We constructed regional earthquake source models and used standard published and modified attenuation equations to calculate peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% probabili...