Armen Altunyan’s research while affiliated with St Petersburg University and other places

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Publications (5)


Figure 1. The indicator of the M2 monetary aggregate for the period from September 2013. until January 2021. (in trillion rubles) and inflation for the period from September 2013. until January 2021. (in %) Source : compiled by the author at Bank of Russia (https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/ms/)
Comparison of inflation forecasting models
Monetary Stabilization Policy in the Coronacrisis
  • Article
  • Full-text available

December 2021

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42 Reads

SHS Web of Conferences

Tatiana Kotcofana

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Anastasiya Titova

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Armen Altunyan

Research background: In 2020, all the world's economies faced a new, special phenomenon – the coronacrisis caused by the pandemic, and with the fall of most economic indicators. In the current conditions, it is extremely important to build a competent monetary policy in order to soften the "blows" caused by the global recession for national economies. Purpose of the article: The main purpose of the presented article is the analysis of measures to stimulate the economy using monetary policy instruments in the conditions of the coronacrisis. Methods: To conduct the study, we used official statistics data, on the basis of which an econometric model was built, which allowed us to determine the forecast values for inflation, taking into account the impact of monetary and non-monetary factors. Findings & Value added: The econometric analysis show the high importance of non-monetary factors of inflation. This makes it difficult to assess the monetary policy, since Central banks are able to influence non-monetary factors only indirectly. The paper notes the influence of the refinancing rate on loans to the real sector of the economy, since the stabilization monetary policy should be primarily aimed at maintaining economic growth. The correlation field of the relationship between the index of rigidity of restrictions developed by the University of Oxford and loans to small and medium-sized businesses is constructed. It is noted that with the reduction of administrative restrictions, the volume of loans granted to small and medium-sized businesses increases.

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GDP, Gross savings to GDP%, Gross fixed capital formation in % of GDP, investments in fixed assets to GDP %.
The main indicators of the banking sector of Russia for 2013-2020.
Stabilization policy of the state in the post-pandemic period

January 2021

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43 Reads

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2 Citations

SHS Web of Conferences

Research background: The coronavirus pandemic, which has affected all spheres of society and the economy, has formed new realities and conditions for modern world development. The governments of many countries have faced a choice of how to combine the security of citizens ’ lives and the need to resist the decline in production, employment, and income. Purpose of the article: The main purpose of the presented article is to study the instruments of stabilization policy during the pandemic and post-pandemic economy and to identify measures aimed at reorienting from ensuring monetary and budgetary stability to expanding effective demand and stimulating the economy. Methods: To conduct the study, we used official statistics data, the analysis of which allowed us to determine the degree of mutual influence of key parameters of economic development. Findings & Value added: The results show that in developed countries, support measures by monetary policy instruments are limited, so for the most part, fiscal mechanisms to support the population and business are implemented. In Russia, the opportunities to soften monetary policy with traditional monetary policy measures still retain some effectiveness. However, the current economic policy imposes a forced type of consumer behavior based on making financial decisions in the absence of choice, so such decisions form negative consequences — indebtedness and poverty. In this regard, recommendations are given for the implementation of stabilization policy instruments aimed at reorienting it from ensuring monetary and budgetary stability to stimulating the Russian economy and expanding the monetary base of demand.


Indices of relative prices for products of Russian industrial sectors in 2012 compared to 1990, times.
Inflation and Redistribution Processes in the Modern World

January 2021

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70 Reads

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1 Citation

SHS Web of Conferences

Research background: Inflation and redistributive processes are the main permanent threats to economic stability in the modern world and these processes are closely interconnected. Inflation is a powerful tool for redistributing national income, both consciously used by economic entities and generated within the economic system. Purpose of the article: To demonstrate the variety of mechanisms that connects inflation and redistributive processes in the modern economy. Methods: The dialectical-materialistic and concrete-historical method forms the methodological basis of research. The empirical basis of analysis is formed by statistical materials and specific economic and statistical studies. Findings & Value added: Monopoly power in all its manifestations is the first and key mechanism for redistributing social income through inflation processes. The dollar’s monopoly position in international settlements has long been one of the factors of global inflation processes and redistribution of the global public product in favor of the United States in the global economy. The highest degree of monopolization of Russian market is the main generator of Russian inflation and the reason of the disproportionate development of Russian economy. The state has the largest number of redistributive levers and quite often acts as a voluntary or involuntary initiator of inflation and redistribution processes. Inflationary expectations make a significant contribution to the formation of inflationary potential in the face of low confidence in the authorities, lack of information, political monopolism, and economic instability. This is manifested in advance overpricing for traded goods and services, interest rates, etc., which, in turn, may strengthen redistribution processes, especially in the context of monopolistic pricing.


Indices of relative prices for products of Russian industries in 2012 compared to 1990, times
The impact of monopolism on the stability of economic development in the conditions of globalization

January 2020

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1,101 Reads

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2 Citations

SHS Web of Conferences

The article discusses the impact of the level of monopolization of markets on the sustainability of economic development and, above all, on the development of inflationary processes in terms of the reproduction approach in the global economy. The purpose of the article is to show the key role of monopolism in the genesis of inflation and its negative impact on the sustainability of economic development. The article uses a reproductive approach to the analysis of economic phenomena and processes. Using dialectical materialistic and concrete historical methods, it is shown how monopolism contributes to the development of inflation at all stages of the reproductive process. So, in Russia throughout the entire period of reforms, with the exception of individual years, the producer price index of industrial products grew faster than the consumer price index, and prices in more monopolized industries grew much faster than in less monopolized ones, which confirms the important the role of monopolies in the unwinding of the inflationary process.


The impact of economic policy instruments on the conditions of sustainable economic growth

January 2020

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90 Reads

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1 Citation

SHS Web of Conferences

Given the low rates of economic growth in Russia and the aggravation of the geopolitical situation, the question of the prospects for its stimulation with fiscal and monetary policy tools is of particular relevance. The main priority of the economic policy is to ensure financial stability and prevent destabilization, taking into account the volatility of hydrocarbons prices and the geopolitical tensions. The article uses dialectical materialistic and concrete historical methods to protect that the current economic policies should be focused on sustainable economic growth. It is necessary to form a new strategy of monetary regulation and budget policy that would contribute to the sustainable development of the Russian economy and ensure the economic security of the country. In the perspective of maintaining sustainable economic growth, it is important to solve the problem of equitable distribution, expressed in a strong stratification of society and the violation of social stability, the implementation of economic policy at the level of macroeconomic planning; it is advisable for the Central Bank to follow the link between the possible range of inflation and economic growth; to stimulate consumer and investment demand by reducing interest rates, to form money supply not due to linking gold and foreign currency reserves, but under the issue of securities, to increase budget expenditures and increase public debt for the sake of investment in education and health care.

Citations (4)


... Yang (2024) aimed to examine the fiscal and monetary policies enacted by the G7 countries in the post-COVID-19 era and also empathize comparative evaluation of monetary strategies-such as interest rate cuts and quantitative easing-and fiscal measures-such as direct payments, loan guarantees, and tax deferments, to investigate their impact on economic recovery. Altunyan et al. (2021) studied the instruments of stabilization policy during the pandemic and postpandemic economy, identifying measures aimed at reorienting from ensuring monetary and budgetary stability to expanding effective demand and stimulating the economy and directly showed that in developed countries, support measures by monetary policy instruments were limited, so for the most part, fiscal mechanisms to support the population and business were implemented. The result was recognized by Syukur (2024), who highlighted taxation's critical role as a revenue-generating mechanism for governments facing post-pandemic fiscal deficits. ...

Reference:

Exploring the Effect of the Government Interventions on the Information Asymmetry in the Post-Pandemic
Stabilization policy of the state in the post-pandemic period

SHS Web of Conferences

... In the Russian conditions, the price growth is influenced by cost factors associated with the monopolization of the economy, the insufficient effectiveness of antimonopoly legislation, the outpacing growth of prices for fuel, energy and raw materials. (Kotcofana et al., 2020). The study (Zhemkov, a significant influence of structural factors on the inflation rate, moreover, this influence is extremely heterogeneous in the regional context. ...

The impact of monopolism on the stability of economic development in the conditions of globalization

SHS Web of Conferences

... This was slightly inferior to its average level at the time of the introduction of this regime by other countries-59.4% (Altunyan et al. 2020). However, given that the main group of countries switched to inflation targeting of the 2008-2009 world financial crisis, and developed countries even earlier-in the 1990s, the lag has now grown (Kitrar 2021). ...

The impact of economic policy instruments on the conditions of sustainable economic growth

SHS Web of Conferences