Ann P. Kinzig’s research while affiliated with Arizona State University and other places

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Publications (166)


Urban–Suburban Biodiversity
  • Chapter

January 2024

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8 Reads

Elizabeth M. Cook

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Ann P. Kinzig

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J. Morgan Grove

Challenges in cybersecurity: Lessons from biological defense systems

June 2023

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88 Reads

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5 Citations

Mathematical Biosciences

Edward Schrom

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Ann Kinzig

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Stephanie Forrest

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[...]

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Defending against novel, repeated, or unpredictable attacks, while avoiding attacks on the 'self', are the central problems of both mammalian immune systems and computer systems. Both systems have been studied in great detail, but with little exchange of information across the different disciplines. Here, we present a conceptual framework for structured comparisons across the fields of biological immunity and cybersecurity, by framing the context of defense, considering different (combinations of) defensive strategies, and evaluating defensive performance. Throughout this paper, we pose open questions for further exploration. We hope to spark the interdisciplinary discovery of general principles of optimal defense, which can be understood and applied in biological immunity, cybersecurity, and other defensive realms.





Challenges in cybersecurity: Lessons from biological defense systems
  • Preprint
  • File available

July 2021

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142 Reads

We explore the commonalities between methods for assuring the security of computer systems (cybersecurity) and the mechanisms that have evolved through natural selection to protect vertebrates against pathogens, and how insights derived from studying the evolution of natural defenses can inform the design of more effective cybersecurity systems. More generally, security challenges are crucial for the maintenance of a wide range of complex adaptive systems, including financial systems, and again lessons learned from the study of the evolution of natural defenses can provide guidance for the protection of such systems.

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Conservation: Economics, Science, and PolicyEconomics, Science, and Policy

July 2021

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65 Reads

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4 Citations

This book explores the process by which people decide to conserve or convert natural resources. Building on a seminal study by Harold Hotelling that connects conservation to expected changes in the value of resources, the authors develop the general principles involved in conservation science. The focus of the book is the resources of the natural environment. This includes both directly exploited resources such as agricultural soils, minerals, forests, and fish stocks, and biodiversity—the wild species and natural ecosystems put at risk when people choose to convert natural habitat, or to discharge waste products to water, land, or air. The theory of conservation shows how much or how little to extract from the environment, and how much to leave intact. It also shows how conservation decisions are influenced by the existence of market failures—the external impacts of market decisions on ecosystems, and the public good nature of many ecosystem services. It shows how conservation connects to expected changes in the relative importance or value of natural resources, and what is needed to uncover that value. It shows how context matters. Decisions about the conservation of natural resources are influenced by property rights—whether land is private property or in the public domain; by environmental policies, laws, and regulations within countries; and by environmental agreements between countries. Finally, this book shows how conservation differs within and beyond protected areas, how it connects to the system of environmental governance, and how governance structures have evolved over time.


Summary of some socioeconomic variables of Rafsanjani pistachio growers.
Standardized direct, indirect and total effects between variables that affect Rafsanjani pistachio growers' income diversification behaviour.
Developing a socio-psychological model explaining farmers’ income diversification in response to groundwater scarcity in Iran

March 2021

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216 Reads

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4 Citations

International Journal of Water Resources Development

Income diversification is an essential livelihood strategy for farmers facing unsustainable groundwater withdrawals. This paper develops a general structural equation model that analyses socio-psychological factors that affect the intentions to adopt and the actual adoption of income diversification in response to groundwater scarcity. The developed model includes affective attitudes, instrumental attitudes and self-efficacy. This model explains 55% and 36% of the variance in intentions to pursue and the actual pursuit of income diversification among farmers in the Rafsanjan Plain, Iran, respectively. These results can inform policies for promoting income diversification, and have implications for sustaining farmers’ livelihoods and groundwater resources.



Conceptualizations of systems responding to a disturbance. The left panels demonstrate two possible trajectories of a system (the ball) following a disturbance. In the left panels the y-axis is an abstract and dimensionless representation of the system environment. In (a) the system moves away from its initial state and eventually returns. In (b) the system is disturbed sufficiently that it moves to a new stable state. Each diagram on the left can be transformed into a plot of accumulated change versus time as in (c) and (d). We created analogous diagrams using empirical data for 938 U.S. urban areas.
The industry structures of an example area, the Phoenix metropolitan statistical area, at three points in time. Highlighted nodes indicate industries that are present in a given year. Empty nodes are industries that exist elsewhere in the U.S. but are not present in Phoenix. Note that which industries are present change subtly over time as does the total number of industries present. We quantified the difference between these networks and took it as a measure of structural change over time.
Average accumulated change by year among all cities of each cluster. Vertical bars in each panel represent, from left to right, beginning of recession (2006), end of recession/beginning of recovery (2009), and end of recovery (2012). The number of core based statistical areas (CBSAs) included in each cluster is shown under the cluster number. We take these curves to be the response archetypes of each cluster. Note that accumulated change is a dimensionless value and is always positive.
While simplistic conceptualizations of system stability assume a fixed exogenous environment (left and center), urban economies are embedded in an environment that is itself dynamic and co-evolving (right). Figure courtesy of Laboy and Fannon [50].
Comparison of average economic performance and other attributes of each cluster.
Resilience of Urban Economic Structures Following the Great Recession

February 2021

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231 Reads

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8 Citations

The future sustainability of cities is contingent on economic resilience. Yet, urban resilience is still not well understood, as cities are frequently disrupted by shocks, such as natural disasters, economic recessions, or changes in government policies. These shocks can significantly alter a city’s economic structure. Yet the term economic structure is often used metaphorically and is often not understood sufficiently by those having to implement policies. Here, we operationalized the concept of economic structure as a weighted network of interdependent industry sectors. For 938 U.S. urban areas, we then quantified the magnitude of change in the areas’ economic structures over time, focusing on changes associated with the 2007–2009 global recession. The result is a novel method of analyzing urban change over time as well as a typology of U.S. urban systems based on how their economic structures responded to the recession. We further compared those urban types to changes in economic performance during the recession to explore each structural type’s adaptive capacity. Results suggest cities that undergo constant but measured change are better positioned to weather the impacts of economic shocks.


Citations (78)


... The expansive urban-suburban matrix of metropolitan Phoenix, AZ, reflects a diverse mix of land use histories. Phoenix has a pronounced agricultural lineage, beginning with the early Hohokam people, who constructed the area's first canal system, to modern agricultural systems that use an extensive water-distribution network focused on cotton (Gossypium barbadense L.) and alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), among other crops (Redman and Kinzig, 2008). Phoenix remained relatively sparsely populated until the latter half of the 20th and early 21st centuries, when the region experienced exponential growth, which consumed expansive areas of both agricultural and native desert lands (Keys et al., 2007;Redman and Kinzig, 2008). ...

Reference:

Hydropedological Assessments of Parcel-Level Infiltration in an Arid Urban Ecosystem
Water Can Flow Uphill A Narrative of Central Arizona
  • Citing Chapter
  • July 2008

... Thus, rising incidences of cyber-crime have become a matter of concern for all. Derogation of privacy, unauthorized data alteration or destruction, data theft, stealing of financial information from clients, etc., are some of the vital consequences of cyber-crimes [9]. The present Internet scenario worldwide is reminiscent of the 19th century Gold Rush in the United States. ...

Challenges in cybersecurity: Lessons from biological defense systems
  • Citing Article
  • June 2023

Mathematical Biosciences

... Enhancing cybersecurity awareness and promoting responsible online behaviors can help mitigate the risks associated with malware infections. d) Leveraging Threat Intelligence: Just as the immune memory response helps faster and more effective immune responses to reinfection, leveraging threat intelligence can enhance cybersecurity incident response capabilities by collecting and analyzing information about malware and attack patterns [16]. ...

Challenges in Cybersecurity: Lessons from Biological Defense Systems
  • Citing Article
  • January 2023

SSRN Electronic Journal

... 2020). Multiple scales are also in effect in uneven ways in the BCS space; for example, climate impacts are driven by globally accumulating greenhouse gases, which can be felt in local and regional levels, whereas biodiversity loss impacts are almost always locally experienced and thereby affect the capacity of ecological systems to benefit people as local public good but whose aggregate global effect may be declining across global taxa and their associated gene pools (i.e., a global public good; Perrings and Kinzig 2021). ...

Conservation: Economics, Science, and PolicyEconomics, Science, and Policy
  • Citing Book
  • July 2021

... Alonso and Krajsic ,2015;) (Hashemi et al.,2021 Introduction: In Iran, out of 88.5 billion water resources, about 83 billion cubic meters or 93.5% is allocated to the agricultural sector and therefore agriculture is the largest consumer of water. Increasing population, increasing cultivation areas, and agricultural productions have increased the consumption of these resources. ...

Developing a socio-psychological model explaining farmers’ income diversification in response to groundwater scarcity in Iran

International Journal of Water Resources Development

... The topic of the economic crisis was also discussed in urban economic models. These models examined how the economic crisis affected urban areas differently, considering factors such as industrial composition, labour market dynamics and housing markets (Sendi 2010;Holgersen 2014;Shutters et al. 2021). ...

Resilience of Urban Economic Structures Following the Great Recession

... The time dimension may lead to negative as well as positive biodiversity effects and it may very well matter what point during succession is considered (Forrester 2014;Río et al. 2014). As Kinzig & Pacala (2001) suggest, a negative diversity-succession effect may result from low- achieving early successionals delaying the establishment of more productive late suc- cessionals. In contrast, positive diversity-succession effects on productivity and sta- bility may emerge from, e.g. the temporally overlapping development of trees with differing shade tolerance and growth ability ) or correlation of other functional traits with the successional aspect . ...

14. Looking Back and Peering Forward
  • Citing Chapter
  • December 2013

... Although pyrophilous fungi are widespread across ecosystems, we lack an understanding of how soon these pyrophilous fungi appear, their turnover rates, and if they change in abundance over time (Fox et al., 2022). Successional theory states that early successional stages are dominated by fast-growing or ruderal (R) organisms (Kinzig & Pacala, 2002) that tradeoff between stress tolerance (S) and competitive (C) life-history strategies over time (Grime, 1977;Zhang et al., 2018). Recent adaptations of Grime's C-S-R to microbiomes suggest that pyrophilous microbes survive and thrive post-fire with traits analogous to plants, including post-fire resource acquisition (C), thermotolerant structures (S), and fast growth (R) (Enright et al., 2022;Whitman et al., 2019). ...

9. Successional Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning
  • Citing Chapter
  • December 2013

... The inclusion of climate-focused social sciences in climate assessment reports has generally been secondary to the biogeophysical sciences. While there has been progress towards greater inclusion of social science disciplines (anthropology, sociology, economics, human geography, etc.) in assessments, it has not kept pace with advancements in the climate social sciences themselves; moreover, their treatment within assessments has not been as robust as that of the biogeophysical sciences (Beckage et al. 2020;Hackmann et al. 2014;Liverman 2016;Maxwell et al. 2022;Mooney et al. 2013;Moser et al. 2016). In the United States (U.S.), National Climate Assessments (NCAs) and sub-national climate assessments (SCAs) have distinct purposes, scopes, scales, and knowledge governance (Galford et al. 2016;Holmes et al. 2020;Kirchhoff et al. 2019;Widhalm and Dukes 2020).One implication of these differences is that their interests in, needs for, and opportunities to incorporate the social sciences are likely to be distinct, as well. ...

The Earth has humans, so why don’t our climate models?

Climatic Change

... The loss of beneficial microbial species in the agricultural soil can exacerbate pathogen invasions and compromise ecosystem resilience (Jacobsen and Hjelmsø, 2014;Meena et al., 2020). Since microbial communities are the primary drivers of soil nutrient cycling, due to their various metabolic activities, their relevance in moderating ecosystem function cannot be understated (Balser et al., 2002). ...

12. Linking Soil Microbial Communities and Ecosystem Functioning
  • Citing Chapter
  • December 2013