Ann P. Kinzig's research while affiliated with Arizona State University and other places

Publications (158)

Preprint
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We explore the commonalities between methods for assuring the security of computer systems (cybersecurity) and the mechanisms that have evolved through natural selection to protect vertebrates against pathogens, and how insights derived from studying the evolution of natural defenses can inform the design of more effective cybersecurity systems. Mo...
Book
This book explores the process by which people decide to conserve or convert natural resources. Building on a seminal study by Harold Hotelling that connects conservation to expected changes in the value of resources, the authors develop the general principles involved in conservation science. The focus of the book is the resources of the natural e...
Article
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Income diversification is an essential livelihood strategy for farmers facing unsustainable groundwater withdrawals. This paper develops a general structural equation model that analyses socio-psychological factors that affect the intentions to adopt and the actual adoption of income diversification in response to groundwater scarcity. The develope...
Article
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The future sustainability of cities is contingent on economic resilience. Yet, urban resilience is still not well understood, as cities are frequently disrupted by shocks, such as natural disasters, economic recessions, or changes in government policies. These shocks can significantly alter a city’s economic structure. Yet the term economic structu...
Article
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While climate models have rapidly advanced in sophistication over recent decades, they lack dynamic representation of human behavior and social systems despite strong feedbacks between social processes and climate. The impacts of climate change alter perceptions of risk and emissions behavior that, in turn, influence the rate and magnitude of clima...
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Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in the agriculture and water sectors requires actors (e.g. farmers, water authorities, scientists) to consider the sustainability of both human and water elements. With a focus on farmers, using a behavioral approach, we explore how the groundwater system, which consists of human and water elements, is se...
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Spatially and temporally unpredictable rainfall patterns presented food production challenges to small-scale agricultural communities, requiring multiple risk-mitigating strategies to increase food security. Although site-based investigations of the relationship between climate and agricultural production offer insights into how individual communit...
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Iran is among the world’s top five groundwater exploiters and, similar to many countries in the world, aquifers in Iran have been rapidly depleted over the past decades primarily as a result of groundwater use by farmers. This research was conducted to explore whether the perceptions of pistachio growers in Rafsanjan Plain, Iran (a global center fo...
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Southeast Asia is one of the most dynamic regions in the world in terms of economic growth and urbanization. At the same time, the region is also prone to multiple hydro-meteorological disasters, which are projected to be intensified by climate change. This paper analyzes the combined effect of economic development and climate change on the future...
Article
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 has led to the death or destruction of millions of domesticated and wild birds and caused hundreds of human deaths worldwide. As with other HPAIs, H5N1 outbreaks among poultry have generally been caused by contact with infected migratory waterfowl at the interface of wildlands and human-dominated landsc...
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Demands for ecosystem service assessments are growing around the world. However, management applications remain limited in part because we lack measurements linking ecosystem characteristics (ecosystem structure and processes) to final ecosystem services. Policymakers need marginal values, changes in final ecosystem services (direct link to human w...
Article
The concept of the Anthropocene is based on the idea that human impacts are now the primary drivers of changes in the earth's systems, including ecological systems. In many cases, the behavior that causes ecosystem change is itself triggered by ecological factors. Yet most ecological models still treat human impacts as given, and frequently as cons...
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Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate chan...
Article
Does society benefit from encouraging or discouraging private infectious disease-risk mitigation? Private individuals routinely mitigate infectious disease risks through the adoption of a range of precautions, from vaccination to changes in their contact with others. Such precautions have epidemiological consequences. Private disease-risk mitigatio...
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In a rapidly changing world, the question concerning the “right” balance between modeling and empirical work has never been more important. But achieving that balance is not just a matter of student training—it involves examining the incentives in, and structures of, the discipline as a whole.
Chapter
In this chapter, we are interested in food security – how it is achieved, what tradeoffs are made to achieve it, and how people become vulnerable to shortage, especially under climate challenges. Accomplishing food security involves tradeoffs and creates some degree of vulnerability. And the state of security, or “load of vulnerability” as we descr...
Article
Three interrelated world trends may be exacerbating emerging zoonotic risks: income growth, urbanization, and globalization. Income growth is associated with rising animal protein consumption in developing countries, which increases the conversion of wild lands to livestock production, and hence the probability of zoonotic emergence. Urbanization i...
Chapter
Archaeologists now recognize that many societies undergo major transformations that do not fit the classic model of collapse. Our comparative study of cases in the U.S. Southwest and northern Mexico has identified various kinds of transformations, including reorganizations that allow a transformed society to continue (e.g., continuity with change a...
Article
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Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) houses some of the globe's most valuable biodiversity-including charismatic megafauna, a great diversity of birds, endemic plants and ecological processes. But it also remains one of the most economically impoverished regions of the planet, introducing significant social, political, and economic challenges to conserving bio...
Article
Does society benefit from private measures to mitigate infectious disease risks? Since mitigation reduces both peak prevalence and the number of people who fall ill, the answer might appear to be yes. But mitigation also prolongs epidemics and therefore the time susceptible people engage in activities to avoid infection. These avoidance activities...
Article
Economic growth in Central Arizona, as in other semiarid systems characterized by low and variable rainfall, has historically depended on the effectiveness of strategies to manage water supply risks. Traditionally, the management of supply risks includes three elements: hard infrastructures, landscape management within the watershed, and a supporti...
Article
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Economic growth in Central Arizona, as in other semiarid systems characterized by low and variable rainfall, has historically depended on the effectiveness of strategies to manage water supply risks. Traditionally, the management of supply risks includes three elements: hard infrastructures, landscape management within the watershed, and a supporti...
Conference Paper
This paper is intended as a brief introduction to climate adaptation in a conference devoted otherwise to the physics of sustainable energy. Whereas mitigation involves measures to reduce the probability of a potential event, such as climate change, adaptation refers to actions that lessen the impact of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation dif...
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Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) mechanisms leverage economic and social incentives to shape how people influence natural processes and achieve conservation and sustainability goals. Beneficiaries of nature's goods and services pay owners or stewards of ecosystems that produce those services, with payments contingent on service provision. Inte...
Article
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Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) mechanisms leverage economic and social incentives to shape how people influence natural processes and achieve conservation and sustainability goals. Beneficiaries of nature's goods and services pay owners or stewards of ecosystems that produce those services, with payments contingent on service provision ( 1 ,...
Book
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Environmental problems, at local scale as well as global scale, are now considered as key issues and scientists are encouraged to be part of the process to address these issues. For the last decades, scholars have been focusing on the study of interactions between social dynamics and ecological processes and produced a set of concepts and scientifi...
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Archaeological data and research results are essential to addressing such fundamental questions as the origins of human culture; the origin, waxing, and waning of civilizations and cities; the response of societies to long-term climate changes; and the systemic relationships implicated in human-induced changes in the environment. However, we lack t...
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An age-old conflict around a seemingly simple question has resurfaced: why do we conserve nature? Contention around this issue has come and gone many times, but in the past several years we believe that it has reappeared as an increasingly acrimonious debate between, in essence, those who argue that nature should be protected for its own sake (intr...
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Governments worldwide are recognising ecosystem services as an approach to address sustainability challenges. Decision-makers need credible and legitimate measurements of ecosystem services to evaluate decisions for trade-offs to make wise choices. Managers lack these measurements because of a data gap linking ecosystem characteristics to final eco...
Article
The personal choices affecting the transmission of infectious diseases include the number of contacts an individual makes, and the risk-characteristics of those contacts. We consider whether these different choices have distinct implications for the course of an epidemic. We also consider whether choosing contact mitigation (how much to mix) and af...
Article
Soils regulate air and water quality by storing large pools of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). Land management decisions have an enduring influence on the integrity and size of these pools, particularly in the upper soil layers. An important challenge, therefore, is to identify how soil C and N bear the marks of both past and present land use. Several...
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Changes in water availability, and hence price, are expected to be amongst the most disruptive effects of climate change in many parts of the world. Understanding the capacity of society or consumers to adapt to such changes requires understanding the responsiveness of water demand to price changes. We estimate the price elasticity of residential w...
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One of the most important services provided by forests is the control of erosion. We investigated the value of forest cover in protecting water quality in five urban lakes around Prescott, AZ. We first estimated the role of forest cover in regulating sediment loadings into each lake via a sediment delivery model. We then used 8301 single-family res...
Article
Sustainable development requires that per capita inclusive wealth-produced, human, and natural capital-does not decline over time. We investigate the impact of changes in nitrogen on inclusive wealth. There are two sides to the nitrogen problem. Excess use of nitrogen in some places gives rise to N-pollution, which can cause environmental damage. I...
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Archaeology is a source of essential data regarding the fundamental nature of human societies. Researchers across the behavioral and social sciences use archeological data in framing foundational arguments. Archaeological evidence frequently undergirds debate on contemporary issues. We propose here to answer “What are archaeology’s most important s...
Article
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This article represents a systematic effort to answer the question, What are archaeology’s most important scientific challenges? Starting with a crowd-sourced query directed broadly to the professional community of archaeologists, the authors augmented, prioritized, and refined the responses during a two-day workshop focused specifically on this qu...
Chapter
Any assessment of the value of biodiversity should begin with an account of why one needs to value it and the reasons market values would not be expected to suffice for the purpose. This article discusses this in the context of the ecosystem services that biodiversity supports, along with the market and government failures that encourage resource u...
Chapter
For the first time in history, more people live in cities than in nonurban areas. Thus for most people, the urban ecosystem is the place for daily interactions with the environment. Scientists study urban ecological systems for two reasons: (1) they provide a set of services to urban residents; and (2) they can be used as a testing ground for ecolo...
Article
This article tests the explanatory power and interactions among five alternative explanations of environmental knowledge: (1) local information availability, (2) neighborhood characteristics, (3) environmental attitudes, (4) personal empowerment, and (5) information seeking. Using random forest and conditional inference trees, the article analyzes...
Article
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This paper estimates the value of water rights in a rapidly urbanizing semi-arid area: Phoenix, Arizona. To do this we use hedonic pricing to explore the impact of water rights on property values in 151 agricultural land transactions that occurred between 2001 and 2005. We test two main hypotheses: (1) that the marginal willingness to pay for water...
Article
Government policies are needed when people’s behaviors fail to deliver the public good. Those policies will be most effective if they can stimulate long-term changes in beliefs and norms, creating and reinforcing the behaviors needed to solidify and extend the public good. It is often the short-term acceptability of potential policies, rather than...
Chapter
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Resilience Alliance. Member Login Username : Password : Forgot your password? Home; About; Publications; Research; In Practice; News. Discussion Papers; Books. Publications Photo credit: Glenn Edney. Home > Publications. Publications. Title: Long-term Vulnerability and Resilience: Three Examples from Archaeological Study in the Southwestern US and...
Chapter
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Humans often engage in activities on their property that can directly or indirectly influence population dynamics and ecological processes , including gardening to attract birds and butterflies, installing ponds or bird baths, keeping pets indoors, and perhaps most commonly, feeding birds. Yet we know little about the spatial or temporal distributi...
Conference Paper
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This paper estimates the value of water rights in the Phoenix Active Management Area (AMA), Arizona. Within AMAs groundwater rights cannot be transferred separately from the agricultural land to which they apply. As a result there is no separate market for ground water rights. The lack of a market creates two problems: there is no direct signal of...
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The most unique feature of Earth is the existence of life, and the most extraordinary feature of life is its diversity. Approximately 9 million types of plants, animals, protists and fungi inhabit the Earth. So, too, do 7 billion people. Two decades ago, at the first Earth Summit, the vast majority of the world's nations declared that human actions...
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Response CURL MAKES A VALID POINT ABOUT THE BEHAVior of carbonate minerals on multimillion-year time scales. Our interest, though, is in the much shorter time scales of decades to centuries. Considering remaining uncertainties in measuring some aspects of the global carbon cycle and the relatively rapid environmental changes under way in the atmosp...
Chapter
Introduction I am, perhaps, the ‘fish out of water’ in this collection of authors, as I have come to this work primarily as someone who has studied the resilience literature, instead of as an expert (indeed, even a novice) on the subject of cultural landscapes. As such, I have been asked to reflect on what the scholarship on cultural landscapes can...
Article
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Events during the last several years-such as Hurricane Katrina, the earthquake in Haiti, the Southeast Asian tsunami, and continuing droughts in Africa-vividly illustrate the vulnerability of human society to environmental disturbances. That vulnerability lies in both the nature and magnitude of hazards in the environment and in the configurations...
Article
Boundary organizations are designed to stabilize the relationship between science and policy communities. The literature emphasizes that products (i.e., boundary objects) should be salient, legitimate, and credible to both communities. The related field of participatory geographic information systems (PGIS) focuses on creating useful products (i.e....
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Payment mechanisms designed without regard to the properties of the services they cover may be environmentally harmful.
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After the collective failure to achieve the Convention on Biological Diversity’s (CBD’s) 2010 target to substantially reduce biodiversity losses, the CBD adopted a plan composed of five strategic goals and 20 “SMART” (Specific, Measurable, Ambitious, Realistic, and Time-bound) targets, to be achieved by 2020. Here, an interdisciplinary group of sci...
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The value of “diversity” in social and ecological systems is frequently asserted in academic and policy literature. Diversity is thought to enhance the resilience of social-ecological systems to varied and potentially uncertain future conditions. Yet there are trade-offs; diversity in ecological and social domains has costs as well as benefits. In...
Conference Paper
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The development of large, nucleated settlements based on intensive maize farming in semiarid Northwest Mexico has long intrigued archaeologists. Sauer (1963) and Parsons and Parsons (1990) have postulated that nucleated settlements in Northwest Mexico were made possible by an integrated maize-agave cultivation regimen. This proposition suggests tha...
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Win–win solutions that both conserve biodiversity and promote human well-being are difficult to realize. Trade-offs and the hard choices they entail are the norm. Since 2008, the Advancing Conservation in a Social Context (ACSC) research initiative has been investigating the complex trade-offs that exist between human well-being and biodiversity co...