Andrew D Bollman’s scientific contributions

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Publications (4)


Emission Projections for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Section 812 Second Prospective Clean Air Act Cost/Benefit Analysis
  • Article

June 2008

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21 Reads

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7 Citations

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Maureen A Mullen

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Andrew D Bollman

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[...]

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James DeMocker

Section 812 of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 requires the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to perform periodic, comprehensive analyses of the total costs and total benefits of programs implemented pursuant to the CAAA. The first prospective analysis was completed in 1999. The second prospective analysis was initiated during 2005. The first step in the second prospective analysis was the development of base and projection year emission estimates that will be used to generate benefit estimates of CAAA programs. This paper describes the analysis, methods, and results of the recently completed emission projections. There are several unique features of this analysis. One is the use of consistent economic assumptions from the Department of Energy's Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005) projections as the basis for estimating 2010 and 2020 emissions for all sectors. Another is the analysis of the different emissions paths for both with and without CAAA scenarios. Other features of this analysis include being the first EPA analysis that uses the 2002 National Emission Inventory files as the basis for making 48-state emission projections, incorporating control factor files from the Regional Planning Organizations (RPOs) that had completed emission projections at the time the analysis was performed, and modeling the emission benefits of the expected adoption of measures to meet the 8-hr ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), the Clean Air Visibility Rule, and the PM2.5 NAAQS. This analysis shows that the 1990 CAAA have produced significant reductions in criteria pollutant emissions since 1990 and that these emission reductions are expected to continue through 2020. CAAA provisions have reduced volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by approximately 7 million t/yr by 2000, and are estimated to produce associated VOC emission reductions of 16.7 million t by 2020. Total oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) emission reductions attributable to the CAAA are 5, 12, and 17 million t in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission benefits during the study period are dominated by electricity-generating unit (EGU) SO2 emission reductions. These EGU emission benefits go from 7.5 million t reduced in 2000 to 15 million t reduced in 2020.


Hazardous Air Pollutants Benefits Assessment: Houston-Galveston Case Study

May 2008

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11 Reads

Section 812 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) requires the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to perform periodic, comprehensive analyses of the total costs and total benefits of programs implemented pursuant to the Clean Air Act (CAA). The first analysis required was a retrospective analysis, addressing the original CAA and covering the period 1970 to 1990. The retrospective was completed in 1997. Section 812 also requires performance of prospective cost-benefit analyses, the first of which was completed in 1999. The prospective analyses address the incremental costs and benefits of the CAAA. The first prospective covered implementation of the CAAA over the period 1990 to 2010. EPA's Office of Air and Radiation (OAR) is now working on a second prospective study, looking at the period from 1990 to 2020. The analytical plan was reviewed by a statutorily-mandated outside peer review group, the EPA Science Advisory Board Advisory Council for Clean Air Compliance Analysis (SAB Council), and the SAB Council provided comments, which have been incorporated into the technical analysis planning. The purpose of this paper is to describe the development of a benzene emissions inventory in the Houston, Texas, area as part of a case study for the second prospective study. After the first prospective 812 study, the SAB Council encouraged EPA to include a hazardous air pollutant (HAP) benefits case study in future efforts to help address limitations in our ability to estimate benefits associated with HAP controls under the CAA.


IMPROVEMENTS TO NONROAD MODEL INPUTS FOR MIDWESTERN STATES

January 2004

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8 Reads

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2 Citations

The purpose of this project was to develop data specific to Midwest region states to improve upon EPA's default 2002 nonroad construction and agricultural engine emission estimates. In EPA's NONROAD emissions model, state-level populations and activity for construction and agricultural categories are derived from national sources of data, and county-level activity is estimated using surrogate indicators that may not always correlate well with local equipment use. Information was collected via survey methods, and from publically available sources of data, to develop local model inputs for equipment populations, engine characteristics, and spatial and temporal activity. These revised inputs will be used to support future Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium (LADCO) regional emissions modeling efforts. owners and operators was performed, targeting businesses which are most likely to use these types of equipment. The survey results were used to develop more representative estimates of the types and number of equipment used, as well as information on the use of the equipment (i.e., during the day/week or throughout the year). For the agricultural equipment category, county-level diesel fuel consumption estimates were developed to improve upon the NONROAD model's methods for spatially allocating agricultural equipment activity. Weekly and monthly diesel fuel consumption were also estimated for each state to improve upon the monthly activity profile defaults in the NONROAD model. This study provides improvements to the NONROAD model inputs for Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin for construction equipment, and for these five states plus Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri for agricultural equipment. Comparisons are provided between the data developed in this study and NONROAD model defaults. The data developed in this study will support LADCO in future regional emissions modeling efforts.


Table 2 . Modeling approach by major sector. 
Emission Projections for the EPA Section 812 Second Prospective Clean Air Act Cost/Benefit Analysis
  • Article
  • Full-text available

35 Reads

Section 812 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 requires the U.S. EPA to perform periodic, comprehensive analyses of the total costs and total benefits of program implemented pursuant to the CAA. The first prospective analysis was completed in 1999. The second prospective analysis was initiated during 2005. The first step in the second prospective analysis was the development of base and projection year emission estimates, which will be used to generate benefit estimates of CAAA programs. This paper describes the analysis methods and results of the recently completed emission projections. There are several unique features of this analysis. One is the use of consistent economic assumptions from the Department of Energy's "Annual Energy Outlook 2005" projections as the basis for estimating 2010 and 2020 emissions for all sectors. Another is the analysis of the different emissions paths for both with and without CAAA scenarios. Other features of this analysis include being the first EPA analysis that uses the 2002 National Emission Inventory files as the basis for making 48 state emission projections, incorporating control factor files from the regional planning organizations that had completed emission projections at the time the analysis was performed, and modeling the emission benefits of the expected adoption of measures to meet the 8 hour ozone NAAQS, the Clean Air Visibility Rule, and the PM 2.5 NAAQS. The results of this study have been reviewed by EPA's Science Advisory Board.

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Citations (2)


... It is calculated on a 12 km grid with diurnal and monthly profiles and emissions separated by source category for on-road, nonroad, marine/aircraft/railroad (MAR), "other", biogenic and point sources. Point source emissions were specified using 2007 CEMS (continuous emission monitoring systems) data with updated temporal profiles to include adjustments for weekend/weekday emissions while still providing a solid platform for future projections (Edick and Janssen, 2006 reflect higher agricultural equipment emissions during the spring and fall season rather than the default of a single summer maximum based on midwest crop calendars and tilling, planting, pesticide application and harvesting cycles (Thesing et al., 2004). For EC and OC, "other" sources consist mainly of residential wood and waste combustion with smaller contributions from unpaved roads, food preparation and construction. ...

Reference:

Estimating sources of elemental and organic carbon and their temporal emission patterns using a least squares inverse model and hourly measurements from the St. Louis–Midwest supersite
IMPROVEMENTS TO NONROAD MODEL INPUTS FOR MIDWESTERN STATES
  • Citing Article
  • January 2004

... The Clean Air Act is another federal legislation that has an indirect impact on the production and use of plastics. It regulates the atmospheric emissions of pollutants, including the sources of plastic produced (Wilson et al. 2008;Sorensen et al. 2023). Some state laws on plastic bag safety: Several states in the US are implementing laws that prohibit or restrict the use of plastic bags in supermarkets and retail stores (Sorensen et al. 2023).Some U.S. counties and cities have specific bans against the use of expanded polystyrene containers, known as EPS or Styrofoam (Sorensen et al. 2023). ...

Emission Projections for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Section 812 Second Prospective Clean Air Act Cost/Benefit Analysis
  • Citing Article
  • June 2008