Andrew Balmford's research while affiliated with University of Cambridge and other places
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Publications (402)
Natural Climate Solutions have gained prominence as pivotal strategies for climate change mitigation, with tropical reforestation an important and cost-effective approach. However, despite significant reforestation commitments, the potential of natural forest re-growth remains underutilized, with second-growth forests, akin to the perpetual youth o...
A billion rural people live near tropical forests. Urban populations need them for water, energy and timber. Global society benefits from climate regulation and knowledge embodied in tropical biodiversity. Ecosystem service valuations can incentivise conservation, but determining costs and benefits across multiple stakeholders and interacting servi...
Efforts to avert dangerous climate change by conserving and restoring natural habitats are hampered by widespread concerns over the credibility of methods used to quantify their net long-term benefits. We develop a novel, flexible framework for estimating the long-run social benefit of impermanent carbon credits generated by nature-based interventi...
This draft document describes the methodology developed by the Cambridge Center for Carbon Credits (4C) for estimating the number of credits to be issued to a project in the tropical moist forest (TMF) biome. It expands on the methodology outlined in (Swinfield and Balmford, 2023). We welcome comments and suggestions in the associated online docume...
This draft document describes the methodology developed by the Cambridge Center for Carbon Credits (4C) for estimating the number of credits to be issued to a project in the tropical moist forest (TMF) biome. It expands on the methodology outlined in (Swinfield and Balmford, 2023). We welcome comments and suggestions in the associated online docume...
Efforts to avert dangerous climate change by conserving and restoring natural habitats are hampered by widespread concerns over the credibility of methods used to quantify their net long-term benefits. We develop a novel, flexible framework for estimating the long-run social benefit of impermanent carbon credits generated by nature-based interventi...
Efforts to avert dangerous climate change by conserving and restoring natural habitats are hampered by widespread concerns over the credibility of methods used to quantify their net long-term benefits. We develop a novel, flexible framework for estimating the long-run social benefit of impermanent carbon credits generated by nature-based interventi...
Efforts to avert dangerous climate change by conserving and restoring natural habitats are hampered by widespread concerns over the credibility of methods used to quantify their net long-term benefits. We develop a novel, flexible framework for estimating the long-run social benefit of impermanent carbon credits generated by nature-based interventi...
Animal welfare is usually excluded from life cycle assessments (LCAs) of farming systems because of limited consensus on how to measure it. Here, we constructed several LCA-compatible animal-welfare metrics and applied them to data we collected from 74 diverse breed-to-finish systems responsible for 5% of UK pig production. Some aspects of metric c...
While decarbonising economies is a global imperative, offsetting residual emissions remains an essential interim step in avoiding climate breakdown. Carbon credits can be purchased on the voluntary market, but genuine concerns exist as to whether credits, in their current state, will enable the transition to net-zero by 2050. The Cambridge Carbon I...
We make a case for planetary computing: accessible, interoperable and extensible end-to-end systems infrastructure to process petabytes of global remote-sensing data for the scientific analysis of environmental action. We discuss some pressing scientific scenarios, survey existing solutions and find them incomplete, and present directions for syste...
Working paper analysing the economic implications of the proposed 30% target for
areal protection in the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework
Pork accounts for the largest proportion of meat consumed globally and demand is growing rapidly. Two important externalities of pig farming are land use and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) driven by antimicrobial use (AMU). Land use and AMU are commonly perceived to be negatively related across different production systems, so those with smaller la...
A new framework linking economics with remote-sensing means impermanent carbon reduction can be directly compared with permanent drawdown.
Background: Studying dietary trends can help monitor progress towards healthier and more sustainable diets but longitudinal data are often confounded by lack of standardized methods. Two main data sources are used for longitudinal analysis of diets: food balance sheets on food supply (FBS) and household budget surveys on food purchased (HBS).
Meth...
Tropical forest restoration stands to deliver important conservation gains, particularly in lowland Southeast Asia, which has suffered some of the world's highest rates of recent forest loss and degradation. This promise, however, depends on the extent to which biodiversity at forest restoration sites continues to be exposed to threats. A key knowl...
The biodiversity and climate crises demand ambitious policies lowering the environmental impacts of farming. Most current interventions incentivise so‐called land‐sharing approaches to address the widespread trade‐off between farm yields and on‐farm environmental outcomes by compensating farmers who adopt yield‐reducing interventions that encourage...
Background: Studying dietary trends can help monitor progress towards healthier and more sustainable diets but longitudinal data are often confounded by lack of standardized methods. Two main data sources are used for longitudinal analysis of diets: food balance sheets on food supply (FBS) and household budget surveys on food purchased (HBS).
Metho...
p>In this article, the abstract has been revised such that “30% of the total CO<sub>2</sub> increase in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution” now reads “30% of the total CO<sub>2</sub> increase in the atmosphere, or 14% of total emissions, since the Industrial Revolution.” In addition, the second paragraph in the “Priority areas for resto...
There is little robust, quantitative information on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the extinction crisis. Focusing on Madagascar, one of the world’s most threatened biodiversity hotspots, we explore whether the cessation of on-site protected-area management activities due to the pandemic were associated with increased burning inside protec...
It has been argued that intensive livestock farming increases the risk of pandemics of zoonotic origin because of long-distance livestock movements, high livestock densities, poor animal health and welfare, low disease resistance and low genetic diversity. However, data on many of these factors are limited, and analyses to date typically ignore how...
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) projects aim to contribute to climate change mitigation by protecting and enhancing carbon stocks in tropical forests, but there are no systematic global evaluations of their impact. Using a new data set for tropical humid forests, we used a standardised evaluation approach to qua...
One of the biggest stumbling blocks for global environmental agreements is how higher-income and lower-income countries share the costs of implementing them. This problem has become particularly acute as biodiversity and climate ambitions have increased across recent COPs (Conferences of Parties). Here, we estimate the likely distribution of costs...
Forest restoration is being scaled-up globally to deliver critical ecosystem services and biodiversity benefits, yet we lack rigorous comparison of co-benefit delivery across different restoration approaches. In a global synthesis, we use 25,950 matched data pairs from 264 studies in 53 countries to assess how delivery of climate, soil, water, and...
Area-based conservation measures, including protected areas (PA) and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECM), play an important role in biodiversity conservation. In the Brazilian Amazon, even though Conservation Units and Indigenous Lands have been shown to reduce deforestation, few studies have addressed Quilombola Territories, an...
Combatting climate and ecological change is often framed as the responsibility of either individuals or national governments. Organizations, which are intermediate in size and influence, have enormous potential to deliver effective policies. As an illustration, we consider approaches taken by UK organizations to reduce meat consumption.
Background: Studying dietary trends can help monitor progress towards healthier and more sustainable diets but longitudinal data are often confounded by lack of standardized methods. Two main data sources are used for longitudinal analysis of diets: food balance sheets on food supply (FBS) and household budget surveys on food purchased (HBS).
Metho...
The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) prohibits commercial trans-national trade in pangolin specimens. However, African pangolins are continually trafficked to Asia for traditional medicine, with Nigeria considered a key hub. Using reported Nigeria-linked pangolin seizure data and interviews wit...
The Anthropocene is characterized by unparalleled human impact on other species, potentially ushering in the sixth mass extinction. Yet mitigation efforts remain hampered by limited information on the spatial patterns and intensity of the threats driving global biodiversity loss. Here we use expert-derived information from the International Union f...
The UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration offers immense potential to return hundreds of millions of hectares of degraded tropical landscapes to functioning ecosystems. Well-designed restoration can tackle multiple Sustainable Development Goals, driving synergistic benefits for biodiversity, ecosystem services, agricultural and timber production, and...
How to feed, house, clothe and power 11 billion of us without eliminating very many species and wrecking Earth's climate is perhaps this century's greatest challenge. We must obviously strive to curb growth in resource-intensive demand, but we also need to identify production systems that meet people's needs at least overall cost to nature. The lan...
Tropical forest restoration stands to deliver important conservation gains, particularly in lowland Southeast Asia, which has suffered some of the world’s highest rates of forest loss and degradation. This promise, however, depends on the extent to which biodiversity at forest restoration sites continues to be exposed to threats. A key knowledge ga...
Forest loss and degradation are the greatest threats to biodiversity worldwide. Rising global wood demand threatens further damage to remaining native forests. Contrasting solutions across a continuum of options have been proposed, yet which of these offers most promise remains unresolved. Expansion of high-yielding tree plantations could free up f...
Conservation is predominantly an exercise in trying to change human behaviour – whether that of consumers whose choices drive unsustainable resource use, of land managers clearing natural habitats, or of policymakers failing to deliver on environmental commitments. Yet conservation research and practice have made only limited use of recent advances...
Nature provides many benefits for people, yet there are few data on how changes at individual sites impact the net value of ecosystem service provision. A 2002 review found only five analyses comparing the net economic benefits of conserving nature versus pursuing an alternative, more intensive human use. Here we revisit this crucial comparison, sy...
During the Quaternary, large climate oscillations impacted the distribution and demography of species globally. Two approaches have played a major role in reconstructing changes through time: Bayesian Skyline Plots (BSP), which reconstruct population fluctuations based on genetic data, and Species Distribution Models, which allow us to back‐cast th...
Human activities are degrading ecosystems worldwide, posing existential threats for biodiversity and humankind. Slowing and reversing this degradation will require profound and widespread changes to human behaviour. Behavioural scientists are therefore well placed to contribute intellectual leadership in this area. This Perspective aims to stimulat...
Societal Impact Statement
Large areas of tropical forest are degraded. While global tree cover is being mapped with increasing accuracy from space, much less is known about the quality of that tree cover. Here we present a field protocol for rapid assessments of forest condition. Using extensive field data from Tanzania, we show that a focus on rem...
Reducing meat and fish consumption in wealthier countries would help mitigate climate change, raising the question of the most effective ways to achieve this. Price influences the food people buy, but to our knowledge no published field study has assessed the impact on sales of experimentally altering the price of meat and vegetarian meal options....
Work on the post‐2020 global biodiversity framework is now well advanced and will outline a vision, goals, and targets for the next decade of biodiversity conservation and beyond. For the effectiveness of Protected areas and Other Effective area‐based Conservation Measures, an indicator has been proposed for “areas meeting their documented ecologic...
In 2010, the Convention on Biological Diversity adopted the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020. As international attention turns to the development of the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, discussions are focusing on the way in which other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) should be reflected in the Framework. To info...
Understanding how to allocate land for the sustainable delivery of multiple, competing objectives is a major societal challenge. The land sharing‐sparing framework presents a heuristic for understanding the trade‐off between food production and biodiversity conservation by comparing region‐wide land‐use scenarios which are equivalent in terms of ov...
Extensive ecosystem restoration is increasingly seen as being central to conserving biodiversity1 and stabilizing the climate of the Earth2. Although ambitious national and global targets have been set, global priority areas that account for spatial variation in benefits and costs have yet to be identified. Here we develop and apply a multicriteria...
Altering the order in which meals are presented at cafeteria counters has been proposed as a way of lowering meat consumption, but remains largely untested. To address this, we undertook two experimental studies involving 105,143 meal selections in the cafeterias of a British university. Placing vegetarian options first on the counter consistently...
Roads and their traffic can affect wildlife over large areas and, in regions with dense road networks, may influence a high proportion of the ecological landscape. We assess the abundance of 75 bird species in relation to roads across Great Britain. Of these, 77% vary significantly in abundance with increasing road exposure, just over half negative...
As environmental scientists working in countries whose COVID-linked deaths already exceed their military casualties from all campaigns since 1945, we believe there are significant messages from the handling of this horrific disease for efforts addressing the enormous challenges posed by the ongoing extinction and climate emergencies.
E cosystem restoration can provide multiple benefits to people and help to achieve multiple Sustainable Development Goals 1-3 , including climate change mitigation 4 and nature conservation 5. Thus, 47 countries have collectively committed to have 150 and 350 million hectares of degraded lands under restoration by 2020 and 2030, respectively, and h...
Further progress in reducing biodiversity loss relies on the improved quantification of the connections between drivers of habitat loss and subsequent biodiversity impacts. To this end, biodiversity impact metrics should be able to report linked trends in specific human activities and changes in biodiversity state, accounting for both the ecology o...
The global road network, currently over 45 million lane‐km in length, is expected to reach 70 million lane‐km by 2050, while the number of vehicles utilizing it is expected to double. Roads have been shown to affect a range of wildlife, including birds, but most studies have been relatively small scale.
We use data from across Great Britain to anal...
Global biodiversity losses continue despite tremendous growth in the volume of conservation science and many local successes. Research that can achieve conservation science's aims—arresting declines in biodiversity and preventing extinctions—is therefore of ever greater importance. Here, we ask whether conservation science, as currently performed,...
Work has begun in earnest to formulate a post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework which will outline the vision and targets for the next decade of biodiversity conservation and beyond. However, the performance of the 2011-2020 Strategic Plan for Biodiversity suggests that even a meaningful target can fail to deliver if not accompanied by fit-for-pur...
Conservation science is a crisis-oriented discipline focused on reducing human impacts on nature. To explore how the field has changed over the past two decades, we analyzed 3245 applications for oral presentations submitted to the Student Conference on Conservation Science (SCCS) in Cambridge, UK. SCCS has been running every year since 2000, aims...
The land sharing‐sparing framework aims to quantify the trade‐off between food production and biodiversity conservation, but it has been criticized for offering, for reasons of simplicity, an unrealistically limited set of different land uses.
Here, we develop the framework to evaluate a much larger suite of land‐use strategies in which the areas a...
Brazil is a megadiversity country with more tropical forest than any other, and is a leading agricultural producer. The technical potential to reconcile these roles by concentrating agriculture on existing farmland and sparing land for nature is well-established, but the spatial overlap of this potential with conservation priorities and institution...
Edible insects are found in agricultural systems worldwide, and are an important source of food and income. However, many edible insects are also pests of important food crops, which raises the question of how far their presence might be costly to farmers in terms of reduced crop yields. In this study we aimed to understand the impact of defoliatio...
Pete Smith and Andrew Balmford argue that methane from livestock is an important contributor to climate change and that it should not be creatively discounted.