Andreas Lichtenberger’s research while affiliated with Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw) and other places

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Publications (9)


Vollbeschäftigung: Theorie, Empirie und Policy-Programme
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October 2024

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37 Reads

Andreas Lichtenberger

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Meryem Gökten

Das Konzept der Vollbeschäftigung ist mit verschiedenen wirtschaftlichen, politischen und sozialen Aspekten verknüpft. Wir geben einen Überblick über Theorie, Empirie und Policy-Fragen im Zusammenhang mit Vollbeschäftigung. Wir leisten einen neuen Beitrag, indem wir mehrdimensionale Aspekte der Vollbeschäftigung in Bezug auf Definitionen, theoretische Perspektiven, Messungen, politische Debatten und Policy-Programme zusammenführen. Wir unterscheiden zwischen Konzepten der Vollbeschäftigung, die eine systematische Verbindung zu Preisstabilität herstellen, Ansätzen minimaler Arbeitslosigkeit und maximaler Beschäftigung sowie dem Fokus auf unbesetzte offene Stellen. Zudem diskutieren wir verschiedene Messungen von Vollbeschäftigung für ausgewählte Volkswirtschaften und schlagen eine neue Vollbeschäftigungstypologie vor. Auf der Grundlage unserer Ergebnisse argumentieren wir, dass die Konzeptionalisierung und Messung von Vollbeschäftigung nicht nur technische Aufgaben sind, sondern unweigerlich normative Positionen beinhalten. Abschließend erörtern wir Optionen für zukünftige Forschung.

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A permanent EU investment fund to promote the green transition in light of EU fiscal rules

August 2024

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10 Reads

European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies Intervention

The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), which was adopted to support economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, represents the first large-scale EU-wide investment initiative, including decarbonisation goals. Yet temporary RRF spending will not be sufficient to meet the climate targets in the coming decades. Meeting the investment needs will require additional public investment equivalent to at least 1 per cent of EU economic output per year to meet the 2030 and 2050 climate goals. The reform of EU fiscal rules does not enable a sufficient increase in public investment at the national level. Therefore, what is needed is the establishment of a permanent EU climate and energy investment fund to finance public investment. This fund could greatly enhance European sovereignty when it comes to ensuring strategic green investment at the required scale. National budgets of EU member states would be substantially relieved, allowing governments to take an important step in the green transition while making it more realistic to comply with EU fiscal rules.


Figure 2 / NAIRU estimates for the US (in % of active population)
Figure 5 / Employment rate consistent with closed gender and education gaps for selected countries, in % of total population (maximum employment approach)
Figure 6 / BECRU estimates for selected countries
Theoretical approaches around full employment
Full Employment: A Survey of Theory, Empirics and Policies

June 2024

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368 Reads

The concept of full employment is associated with diverse economic, political and social aspects. We provide a survey of theory, empirics and policy issues related to full employment. We make a novel contribution by tying together multi-dimensional aspects of full employment regarding definitions, theoretical perspectives, empirical measurements, policy debates and real-world policy programs. We distinguish: concepts of full employment that provide systematic links to price stability; minimum unemployment and maximum employment approaches; and the unfilled vacancies perspective. Furthermore, we provide and discuss different empirical measures of full employment for selected economies, and we propose a new full employment typology. Based on our survey findings, we argue that conceptualising and measuring full employment is not merely a technical task, but inevitably involves normative judgments. Finally, we discuss avenues for future research.


Figure 5 / Beveridge (full-employment-consistent) rate of unemployment (BECRU), 1970-2022
Fig. 6. Beveridge full employment gap for six countries, 1970-2022. Source: OECD Registered Unemployed and Job Vacancies Dataset, BLS JOLTS, Michaillat and Saez (2022); own calculations. Notes: The grey areas in the figure indicate periods of recession in the aggregated OECD Europe sample. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. The data for Germany are for West Germany until 1991. The Beveridge full employment gap (g) is calculated as g = u BECRU.
Fig. 8. NEET rate and Beveridgean full employment gap estimates, 2000-2022. Source: Eurostat, OECD, BLS JOLTS, Michaillat and Saez (2022), ONS; own calculations. Notes: ***, ** and * refer to statistical significance at the 1 %, 5 % and 10 % level, respectively.
Regression results of our baseline specification (time period 1970-2019, six countries)
Variables used in the regression analysis.
How far from full employment? The European unemployment problem revisited

April 2024

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215 Reads

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8 Citations

European Economic Review

This paper analyses deviations from full employment in EU countries, compared with the US and the UK. We apply the Beveridge (full-employment-consistent) rate of unemployment (BECRU), derived from the unemployment-vacancies relationship. The BECRU is the level of unemployment that minimises the non-productive use of labour. Based on a novel dataset over 1970-2022, we find full employment episodes in selected EU countries (Germany, Sweden, Austria, Finland) during the 1970s. The European unemployment problem emerged in the 1980s and 1990s, as Beveridgean full employment gaps increased. In the run-up to the global financial crisis, full employment gaps declined, then increased during the Great Recession. Slack in labour markets initially increased during the pandemic. Labour markets became tighter when recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, but few countries hit full employment. We show that Beveridgean full employment gaps are informative in predicting the share of persons unemployed and not receiving education or vocational training.


Abbildung 15 / Förderungsauszahlungen von Bund und Land nach Bundesländern (in Mio. EUR)
Abbildung 20 / Förderungen nach Bereichen und fördergebender Gebietskörperschaft in Oberösterreich (in Mio. EUR)
Klima-Förderungen: Eine Analyse der Verteilung von öffentlichen Fördergeldern im Zuge der Dekarbonisierung

January 2024

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10 Reads

Diese Studie liefert eine deskriptive Analyse der Verteilung von klimaschutzrelevanten direkten staatlichen Förderungen (Klima-Förderungen) in Gesamtösterreich und im Bundesländervergleich, wobei bei letzterem Oberösterreich in den Mittelpunkt der Untersuchung rückt. Während es zur Analyse von Förderungen in Österreich bereits Arbeiten gibt, liefert unsere Studie erste Ergebnisse zur Verteilungsdimension von Klima-Förderungen. Wir verwenden Daten der Transparenzdatenbank unter Berücksichtigung von Sonderauswertungen durch die Statistik Austria für die Jahre 2021 und 2022. Die analysierten Daten beinhalten direkte Förderprogramme aus vier Kategorien: erneuerbare Energie und Energieeffizienzmaßnahmen; Forschung und Klima; alternative Mobilität; und weitere Umwelt- und Klimaschutzmaßnahmen. Wir berichten die Förderungen nach Förderempfängerinnen und Förderempfängern (Personen, Unternehmen und gemeinnützige Organisationen/öffentliche Verwaltung) und nehmen eine Aufteilung der Personenförderungen nach Einkommensgruppen, Altersgruppen und Bildungsstand, sowie bei den Unternehmensförderungen nach Unternehmensumsatz, Anzahl der Mitarbeitenden und Unternehmensbranche vor.


Figure 9 / Output and gender gap, deviation from trend, HP filter, 2000-2022
Figure 12 / Employment rate changes by sector and share of low-educated workers, EU27, %
Gender and Education Gaps in Employment: New Evidence for the EU

January 2024

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59 Reads

Meryem Gökten

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Bernhard Schütz

This paper analyses (age-adjusted) employment rates by gender and education. We find that male female gender gaps and high-low education gaps in employment vary markedly across European Union (EU) countries and regions, with larger gaps existing in Eastern and Southern Europe than in Nordic and Continental EU countries. We estimate that closing existing education gaps in employment between high and lower education levels would raise the employment rate in the EU for the year 2022 by 10.6 percentage points, whereas closing the gender gaps between men and women would lead to an increase of 2.5 percentage points. At the same time, closing both the gender and education gaps would raise the EU employment rate from 76% to 89% of the population. Furthermore, we provide new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of employment gaps, finding that gender gaps are procyclical. While female employment rates tend to be more resilient than male employment rates during economic downturns, male employment rates tend to grow at a faster pace than female employment rates during upswings. In contrast, education gaps are more countercyclical, as employment risks are more strongly concentrated where education is low.


Fig. 12.3 Components of a Permanent EU Fiscal Capacity. Source: Author's elaboration.
1 EC Proposal for STEP
Options for a Permanent EU Sovereign Fund: Meeting the Climate-Investment Challenge and Promoting Macroeconomic Stability

December 2023

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25 Reads

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2 Citations

The fourth book in the ‘European Public Investment Outlook’ series focuses on the urgent issue of how to finance needed investment in critical tangible and intangible infrastructure given high levels of public debt, a thorny problem facing many governments across Europe. Drawing on expertise from academics, researchers at public policy institutes and international governance bodies, the contributors analyse the current situation and prospects and propose feasible solutions. Financing Investment in Times of High Public Debt offers a powerful combination of high-level analysis of cross-continental policies and trends, with close examination of specific contexts in France, Italy, Germany and Spain. The chapters in Part II explore challenges including how to finance climate investments, the extent to which national promotional banks can offer solutions, EU budget reform and recent trends in tax progressivity. This book is essential reading for economists, policymakers, and anyone interested in implementing and financing public policy in Europe and wanting to better understand the intricacies of EU governance and institutions.


Figure 1 / Average yearly requirements for green investment in the EU
Figure 3 / Expenditure of vulnerable households on energy and rises of household electricity prices in different EU countries.
Figure 4 / Long-term government bond yields
Figure 5 / Investment rates
RRF 2.0: A Permanent EU Investment Fund in the Context of the Energy Crisis, Climate Change and EU Fiscal Rules

January 2023

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52 Reads

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3 Citations

While climate change has long called for a green shift in our economies, the current energy crisis leads to an increased urgency when it comes to transforming the energy and transportation systems. The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), which was adopted to support recovery from the Covid-19 crisis, represents the first large-scale EU-wide investment initiative, including decarbonisation goals. Yet temporary RRF spending will not be sufficient to meet the climate targets in the coming decades, which will require additional public investment equivalent to at least 1% of EU economic output per year. Nor would the reform of EU fiscal rules under consideration enable a sufficient increase in public investment at the national level. What is needed is the establishment of a permanent EU climate and energy investment fund amounting to at least 1% of EU economic output to finance public investment, which could greatly enhance European sovereignty when it comes to ensuring strategic investment at the required scale. National budgets of EU member states would be substantially relieved, allowing governments to take an important step in the green transition while making it more realistic to comply with EU fiscal rules. Investment could also be increasingly directed toward genuinely European projects with EU added value. Such a permanent EU investment fund for climate and energy would not only strengthen the community of EU member states economically and politically from within, but also promote its geostrategic capacity to act.


Abbildung 1 / Durchschnittlicher Jahresbedarf an grünen Investitionen in der EU Gegenüberstellung von EU-weit getätigten und benötigten Gesamtinvestitionen in Mrd. € zu laufenden 2021 Preisen
Abbildung 5 / Investitionsquoten
RRF 2.0: Ein permanenter EU-Investitionsfonds im Kontext von Energiekrise, Klimawandel und EU-Fiskalregeln

December 2022

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56 Reads

Während der Klimawandel schon länger eine grüne Wende unseres Wirtschaftens verlangt, beschleunigt die aktuelle Energiekrise die Dringlichkeit für eine Umstellung der Energie- und Transportsysteme. Die Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), welche zur wirtschaftlichen Abfederung der Covid-19-Krise beschlossen wurde, entspricht einer ersten groß angelegten EU-weiten Investitionsinitiative, die unter anderem Ziele im Bereich der Dekarbonisierung verfolgt. Die RRF-Ausgaben werden jedoch nicht ausreichen, um die Klimaziele in den kommenden Jahrzehnten zu erreichen. Zur Einhaltung der Klimaziele bräuchte es zusätzliche öffentliche Investitionen im Umfang von mindestens 1% der EU-Wirtschafsleistung pro Jahr. Die in Aussicht stehende Reform der EU-Fiskalregeln würde eine Steigerung der öffentlichen Investitionen auf nationaler Ebene nicht in ausreichendem Maße ermöglichen. Die Einrichtung eines permanenten EU-Klima- und Energieinvestitionsfonds mit Zuschüssen im Ausmaß von mindestens 1% der EU-Wirtschaftsleistung zur Finanzierung öffentlicher Investitionen stellt eine funktional adäquate Alternative zur goldenen Investitionsregel dar: Der Spielraum in den nationalen Haushalten der EU-Mitgliedstaaten würde sich wesentlich erweitern, sodass die Regierungen einen wichtigen Schritt in Richtung einer grünen Wende setzen und gleichzeitig die EU-Fiskalregeln eher einhalten können. Die finanzierten Investitionsprojekte könnten außerdem verstärkt auf genuin europäische Projekte mit einem EU-Mehrwert gerichtet werden. Ein solcher permanenter EU-Investitionsfonds für Klima und Energie könnte die Gemeinschaft der EU-Mitgliedstaaten nicht nur von innen heraus wirtschaftlich und politisch stärken, sondern auch ihre zukünftige geostrategische Handlungsfähigkeit in unsicheren Zeiten fördern.

Citations (3)


... In recent years, the growth in labour demand has been limited by economic downturns, first caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and later by the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Lockdowns related to the pandemic led to decreased economic activity, resulting in disruptions to the labour market (Bas et al., 2024;Blundell, 2022;Privara, 2022;Hupkau et al., 2023;Gökten et al., 2024). The effects of the pandemic varied depending on the structure of individual economies, the vulnerability of dif-ferent sectors and demographic groups to the pandemic, and the availability of measures to prevent its spread, including opportunities for remote work (Deole et al., 2023;Pizzinelli & Shibata, 2023;Burdett et al., 2024). ...

Reference:

Balance in the labour market in Poland as a sustainable development goal and the effects of achieving it
How far from full employment? The European unemployment problem revisited

European Economic Review

... Sources: European Commission (2013c), Guzzardi et al. (2023:182-184), Breckenfelder et al. (2023:25). 15 Other studies have estimated revenues from an EU-wide wealth tax to correspond to between 1,5 percent to 11 percent of GDP (Kapeller et al. 2021, Heimberger & Lichtenberger 2023b. ...

Options for a Permanent EU Sovereign Fund: Meeting the Climate-Investment Challenge and Promoting Macroeconomic Stability

... Da un lato, quindi, le crisi che si sono susseguite hanno riportato al centro la necessità dell'intervento pubblico (in particolare le politiche industriali), reso chiara l'urgenza di contrastare diseguaglianze e lavoro povero e messo in luce il bisogno di coordinare politiche di tipo diverso (industriali, fiscali, monetarie e del lavoro) per riuscire a raggiungere i più importanti obiettivi di politica economica (tra questi, la transizione RPS Dario Guarascio ecologica, il contrasto delle disuguaglianze, la riduzione delle vulnerabilità nelle Catene globali del valore, Cgv). Dall'altro, al netto di alcune rilevanti discontinuità, come il Ngeu e le nuove politiche industriali poste in essere dalla Ce, sembrano persistere contraddizioni che, in particolar modo nel caso europeo, potrebbero vanificare gli sforzi e allontanare gli stessi obiettivi (Heimberger e Lichtenberger, 2023): risorse inadeguate se poste a confronto con quelle stanziate da Stati Uniti e Cina , scarso coordinamento tra le politiche associato al rischio di penalizzare nuovamente la domanda aggregata a causa di regole fiscali pro-cicliche (Heimberger, 2020;, mancanza di un legame esplicito tra politiche industriali volte a rafforzare la struttura produttiva e politiche del lavoro tese a promuovere occupazione stabile e ad alto reddito (Rodrik, 2022). In quel che segue, forniremo dapprima una discussione del dibattito scientifico relativo al legame tra politiche industriali e del lavoro, mostrando come la creazione di buona occupazione, un fine normalmente attribuito esclusivamente alle seconde, costituisca altresì condizione necessaria affinché gli obiettivi strutturali delle prime siano compiutamente raggiunti. ...

RRF 2.0: A Permanent EU Investment Fund in the Context of the Energy Crisis, Climate Change and EU Fiscal Rules