Alexander Buber’s research while affiliated with The BE Vedeneev All Russia Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and other places

In 2013, a catastrophic flood occurred on the Amur River, caused by heavy rainfall throughout almost the entire basin. The floodplains of Blagoveshchensk, Khabarovsk, and Komsomolsk-on-Amur were flooded. Similar hydrological phenomena on the Amur occurred earlier (1954, 1972, and 1984), but they did not lead to catastrophic flooding. In the proposed manuscript, the authors investigated three issues: the causes of the 2013 flood, advanced hydrological forecast, and measures to prevent catastrophic flooding. For research, a hydrodynamic model of the Amur River section from Blagoveshchensk to the mouth was developed. Based on the analysis of model calculations, it was shown that some flood problems arose due to the construction of hydraulic structures in recent years (protective dams, bridges, and embankments) and a medium-term forecast scheme proposed.

When managing water resources in order to provide water to consumers, a number of consequences arise related to the violation of the hydrological regime due to the regulation of flow by reservoirs. The second factor is possible climate change. These changes can negatively (or positively) affect the functioning of aquatic ecosystems. To reduce the impact on the environment, it is necessary to determine the nature and indicators of changes in the hydrological regime, calculate quantitative estimates of these indicators and ranges of acceptable values, and develop release rules that ensure compliance with these ranges with a given probability. To manage the water resources of the Volga and Kama Rivers, the main ecological task is to flood the floodplain meadows, to maintain the conditions of natural reproduction of fish on the Lower Volga, including the Volga River delta and the Volga–Akhtuba floodplain. In addition, it is necessary to meet with sufficient reliability the requirements of energy in the summer–autumn and winter low-water periods and water transport during the navigation period. The task of optimal management is to find such solutions in years of different water content that ensure the well-being of the main water users with a given probability and do not disturb the Lower Volga ecosystem. This article presents the research of the water resources state of the water resource system of the Volga and Kama river basins. A statistical analysis of the hydrological series of the observed inflow for 1916–2020 was performed, and the inflow change point (1979) was found by the Bayesian method of estimation. A statistically significant difference between the average inflow values of two series (1916–1978, 1979–2020) was proved using a two-sample Student’s test. The seasonal parameters of the reliability curves were calculated based on the three-parameter Kritsky and Menkel distribution. For these two series, water resource optimization calculations (using Excel Solver) were performed, and the reliability of fulfilling the requirements of water users was determined; for the series 1916–1978, an alternative solution was found in favor of fisheries, and an analysis of the results was also performed. The methodology used in the research allows finding trade-off solutions in the favor of different water users (ecology, agriculture and fisheries, water supply, hydropower, navigation, etc.) and is based on the use of multi-criteria optimization methods and the trade-offs theory. As a result of the research, new knowledge was obtained about the hydrological situation in the basin of the Volga–Kama reservoir cascade in connection with climate change.

The object of research is irrigation systems that are hydraulically connected to a large specialized agricultural complex for rice production, located in the lower part of the Kuban River basin and experiencing an acute shortage of water resources. In the last decade, rice irrigation area decreased by 50%. Calculation technology is proposed for water resources management of the Lower Kuban basin basing on integrated use of six models developed in Russia: hydrological and meteorological forecasts; simulation models of yield formation to calculate crops water demand; water balance models to develop water use schedules for irrigation systems; hydrodynamic models to calculate water use scenarios; optimization models to choose a trade-off Pareto management options; and statistical models to calculate yield losses depending on water resources deficit. This technology allows adopting optimal trade-off solutions online with the Lower Kuban water resources management in interests of agriculture.

In the second half of the twentieth century, a cascade of reservoirs was constructed along the Angara: Irkutskoe, Bratskoe, Ust-Ilimskoe and Boguchanskoe, which were intended for producing renewable hydroelectric energy for providing transportation through the Angara and Yenisei Rivers, and for avoiding floods. The upper reservoir (Irkutsk Dam) is used to regulate the level of Baikal Lake. The cascade of Angarsk reservoirs is managed using the dispatch schedules developed in 1988. This article contains a multi-criteria analysis of the “Lake Baikal–Irkutsk Reservoir” operating modes in a changing climate, based on statistical summaries of performance criteria: reliability, resilience, vulnerability. Studies have shown that dispatch schedules need to be developed on the historical series of recent years, updated more often and optimization methods should be used for real-time management. This article discusses mathematical methods, algorithms and their implementations for the formation of reservoir operation modes based on dispatch schedules (DS) and optimization methods. Furthermore, mathematical methods, algorithms and programs have been developed for the formation of reservoir operation modes in real time, based on optimization approaches and long-term series of observed inflows, taking into account a given hierarchy of priorities of water users’ requirements. To solve the integer nonlinear large-dimensional task of performing water resource calculations, a special optimization algorithm was developed that allows decomposition of the task into a series of two-year dimensional independent subtasks.