Ahmedin Jemal’s research while affiliated with American Cancer Society and other places

The Hispanic/Latino population is the second largest racial/ethnic group in the continental United States and Hawaii, accounting for 18% (60.6 million) of the total population. An additional 3 million Hispanic Americans live in Puerto Rico. Every 3 years, the American Cancer Society reports on cancer occurrence, risk factors, and screening for Hispanic individuals in the United States using the most recent population‐based data. An estimated 176,600 new cancer cases and 46,500 cancer deaths will occur among Hispanic individuals in the continental United States and Hawaii in 2021. Compared to non‐Hispanic Whites (NHWs), Hispanic men and women had 25%‐30% lower incidence (2014‐2018) and mortality (2015‐2019) rates for all cancers combined and lower rates for the most common cancers, although this gap is diminishing. For example, the colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence rate ratio for Hispanic compared with NHW individuals narrowed from 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73‐0.78) in 1995 to 0.91 (95% CI, 0.89‐0.93) in 2018, reflecting delayed declines in CRC rates among Hispanic individuals in part because of slower uptake of screening. In contrast, Hispanic individuals have higher rates of infection‐related cancers, including approximately two‐fold higher incidence of liver and stomach cancer. Cervical cancer incidence is 32% higher among Hispanic women in the continental US and Hawaii and 78% higher among women in Puerto Rico compared to NHW women, yet is largely preventable through screening. Less access to care may be similarly reflected in the low prevalence of localized‐stage breast cancer among Hispanic women, 59% versus 67% among NHW women. Evidence‐based strategies for decreasing the cancer burden among the Hispanic population include the use of culturally appropriate lay health advisors and patient navigators and targeted, community‐based intervention programs to facilitate access to screening and promote healthy behaviors. In addition, the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on cancer trends and disparities in the Hispanic population should be closely monitored.

Background: The American Cancer Society (ACS) and the National Cancer Institute collaborate every 5-8 years to update the methods for estimating numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in the current year in the U.S. and in every state and the District of Columbia. In this paper, we re-evaluate the statistical method for estimating unavailable historical incident cases which are needed for projecting the current year counts. Methods: We compared the current county-level model developed in 2012 (M0) to three new models, including a state-level mixed effects model (M1) and two state-level hierarchical Bayes models with varying random effects (M2 and M3). We used 1996-2014 incidence data for 16 sex-specific cancer sites to fit the models. An average absolute relative deviation (AARD) comparing the observed to the model-specific predicted counts was calculated for each site. Models were also cross validated for 6 selected sex-specific cancer sites. Results: For the cross-validation, the AARD ranged from 2.8% to 33.0% for M0, 3.3% to 31.1% for M1, 6.6% to 30.5% for M2, and 10.4% to 393.2% for M3. M1 encountered the least technical issues in terms of model convergence and running time. Conclusions: The state-level mixed effect model (M1) was overall superior in accuracy and computational efficiency and will be the new model for the ACS current year projection project. Impact: In addition to predicting the unavailable state-level historical incidence counts for cancer surveillance, the updated algorithms have broad applicability for disease mapping and other activities of public health planning, advocacy and research.

PurposeTo describe the histopathological characteristics and survival of female breast cancer (BC) patients in a rural setting with limited access to adjuvant treatment. MethodsA prospective study of 107 histologically confirmed BC patients treated with surgery from 2010 to 2016 from rural parts of western Ethiopia. Referral pathology was performed, and active follow-up was conducted. Adjusted cox regression analysis (hazard ratio [HR]) was performed. ResultsThe median age at diagnosis was 45 (16–83) years; 57% of the patients presented with cT3/4 tumors, 71% with clinically positive lymph nodes, 21% with HER2-overexpression (Dako3+) and 68% with grade 3 tumors. Estrogen and/or progesterone receptor expressions were present in 66% and triple-negative disease in 25%. The estimated 1- and 2-year overall survival probability rates were 78 and 53%, respectively. The 2-year survival for patients with clinically positive lymph nodes was 44% compared to 73% for patients with lymph node-negative disease (HR 2.44; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.19–5.02). The corresponding 2-year survival for patients with cT4 tumors was 25% versus 68% for patients with cT1–2 tumors (cT1–3 vs. cT4 HR 3.86; 95% CI 1.82–13.63). The 2-year survival for patients with hormone receptor-negative disease was 40% compared to 59% for patients with hormone receptor-positive disease (HR 1.92; 95% CI 1.06–3.47). Conclusion The majority of breast cancer patients treated with surgery in rural parts of western Ethiopia are diagnosed at advanced stage and have hormone receptor-positive disease. Nearly half of the patients die within 2 years. These findings underscore the need for provision of adjuvant hormonal therapy and for the establishment of pathology service including hormone receptor testing.

Background: Discontinuation of radiotherapy (RT) for cervical cancer (CC) in sub-Saharan Africa is common because of patient- and health service-related reasons. This analysis describes toxicities and the effect of adherence on survival. Materials and methods: A total of 788 patients with CC (2008-2012) who received RT at Addis Ababa University Hospital were included. External beam RT without brachytherapy was performed according to local guidelines. We previously described survival and prognostic factors. Now we analyzed adherence and survival according to total doses received. Adjustment via multivariate cox regression analysis was done. Results: One-year overall survival (OS) after radical RT (n = 180) for International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stages IIA-IIIA was 89% for discontinuation (<72 Gy) and 96% for adherence (≥72 Gy; hazard ratio [HR], 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5-3.3). One-year OS after nonradical RT (n = 389) for FIGO stages IIIB-IVA was 71% for discontinuation (<40 Gy) and 87% for adherence (44-50 Gy; HR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.4-6.9). One-year OS for FIGO stages IIIB-IVB (n = 219) after one compared with two or more palliative single fractions of 10 Gy were 14% and 73% respectively (HR, 7.3; 95% CI, 3.3-16). Reasons for discontinuation were toxicities, economic background, and RT machine breakdown. Grade 1-2 late toxicities were common (e.g., 30% proctitis, 22% incontinence). Grade 3 early and late toxicities were seen in 5% and 10% respectively; no grade 4 toxicities occurred. Conclusion: Patients who adhered to guideline-conforming RT had optimum survival. Better supportive care, brachytherapy to reduce toxicities, socioeconomic support, and additional radiation capacities could contribute to better adherence and survival. Implications for practice: This study presents the effect of adherence on survival of 788 patients with cervical cancer receiving external beam radiotherapy without brachytherapy in Ethiopia. Discontinuation of planned radiotherapy according to local guidelines considerably reduced survival for all International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stages treated (hazard ratios were 1.3, 3.1, and 7.3 for FIGO stages IIA-IIIA and IIIB-IVA and the palliative approach, respectively). Early toxicity (5% grade 3) should be treated to improve adherence. Economic difficulties and machine breakdown should also be addressed to reduce discontinuation and improve survival.

Vulvar cancer (VC) is strongly associated with human papilloma virus (HPV) infections and immunosuppression (e.g., HIV). However, there is limited information on VC patient characteristics and survival in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia, where chronic HPV and HIV infections are prevalent. The aim of this study is to provide a first view on VC patient characteristics in a sub-Saharan African setting. We present a retrospective analysis of records of 86 VC patients diagnosed between January 2010 and October 2015 at Addis Ababa University Hospital and other major health facilities in Ethiopia. Follow-up for vital status was obtained by telephone contact with patients or relatives. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. The median age of the patients was 39 (range: 20–85) years, 83% with known HIV status were positive and 81% presented with FIGO stages 2 or 3. The median follow-up time for surviving patients was 17 months (range: 0.1–65.0 months). The 1- and 2-year survival rates were 80% and 51%, respectively. Approximately 37% of patients received surgery, 38% received radiotherapy, and 33% received chemotherapy. Patients who received therapy had better survival than those who did not [adjusted hazard ratios: surgery, 0.44 (95% CI, 0.19–1.03); radiotherapy, 0.36 (95% CI, 0.14–0.90); chemotherapy, 0.42 (95% CI, 0.15–1.12)]. A substantial proportion of VC patients in Ethiopia present at a late stage and receive suboptimal treatment. HIV infections appear to be a common comorbid condition. These conditions result in poor outcomes.

Screening rate for cervical cancer among HIV-infected women and among women overall is low in Ethiopia despite the high burden of the disease and HIV infection, which increases cervical cancer risk. In this paper, we assessed knowledge about cervical cancer symptoms, prevention, early detection, and treatment and barriers to screening among HIV-positive women attending community health centers for HIV-infection management in Addis Ababa. A cross-sectional survey of 581 HIV-positive women aged 21–64 years old attending 14 randomly selected community health centers without cervical cancer screening service in Addis Ababa. We used univariate analysis to calculate summary statistics for each variable considered in the analysis, binary logistic regression analysis to measure the degree of association between dependent and independent variables, and multiple regressions for covariate adjusted associations. Statistical significance for all tests was set at P < 0.05. We used thematic analysis to describe the qualitative data. Of the 581 women enrolled in the study with mean age 34.9 ± 7.7 years, 57.8% of participants had heard of cervical cancer and 23.4% were knowledgeable about the symptoms, prevention, early detection, and treatment of the disease. In multivariate analysis, higher educational attainment and employment were significantly associated with good knowledge about cervical cancer. In addition, only 10.8% of the participants ever had screening and 17% ever received recommendation for it. However, 86.2% of them were willing to be screened if free of cost. Knowledge about cervical cancer is poor and cervical cancer screening rate and provider recommendation are low among HIV-positive women attending community health centers for management and follow-up of their disease in Addis Ababa. These findings underscore the need to scale up health education about cervical cancer prevention and early detection among HIV-positive women as well as among primary healthcare providers in the city.