Agnès Bénassy-Quéré's research while affiliated with Université de Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and other places

Publications (204)

Article
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We revisit the standard theoretical model of tax competition to consider imperfect mobility of both capital and labor. We show that the mobility of one factor affects the taxation of both factors and that the ”race-to-the-bottom” narrative (with burden shifting) applies essentially to capital-exporting countries. We validate our predictions using a...
Chapter
As the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic undoubtedly complicates economic forecasting for the eurozone, it is all the more important to try and predict the pace for its recovery: placing the bet right on a v-shaped or a swoosh-shaped recovery will have huge implications for businesses and economic policy actors alike, as well as on companies...
Article
The debate on trade and currency wars has reemerged since the Global Financial Crisis. We study the two forms of noncooperative policies within a single framework. First, we compare the elasticity of trade flows to import tariffs and to the real exchange rate, based on product‐level data for 110 countries over the 1989–2013 period. We find that a 1...
Article
The euro area crisis was less a crisis of the euro than a crisis of the Maastricht doctrine. The latter was based on a triple ban: no monetization of fiscal deficits, no bail-out, no sovereign default. The euro architecture was also based on a strict division of tasks: the European Central Bank would stabilize prices in the euro area as a whole, wh...
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Europe’s failure to manage a bold, common response would further increase divergence, strengthen anti-European forces and fuel populism.
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The debate on the reform of the euro area has confronted those who prioritize “risk reduction” with those who insist on “risk sharing”. Such antagonism is misleading since both items are complements rather than substitutes. It is also insufficient as it misses the core questions of macroeconomic convergence and of the modernization of the subsidiar...
Article
The Euro Area in Search of Coordination The Eurozone crisis has revealed three major design errors: (1) a monetary union without a banking union, (2) an inconsistency between three prohibitions, namely monetization of public debts, bail-out of a Member state by its partners, and sovereign default, and (3) the virtual absence of coordination of macr...
Article
Le projet europeen est aujourd’hui en plein doute, entre une promesse de prosperite qui vacille et la perception frequente que l’Europe creuse les inegalites. Dans cette nouvelle Note du CAE, les auteurs, Vincent Aussilloux, Agnes Benassy‐Quere, Clemens Fuest et Guntram Wolff, recommandent de ne pas lâcher sur l’integration des marches – une necess...
Article
Le choix de faire l’euro sans union budgétaire a été remis en cause par la crise. Des trois fonctions aditionnelles de la politique budgétaire – financement de biens publics, redistribution et stabilisation macroéconomique – seule la dernière se justifie véritablement au niveau de la zone euro plutôtque de l’Union européenne. Une politique insouten...
Article
The problems in the Eurozone are not a side effect of the Global Crisis but rather date back to the Maastricht treaty. This chapter argues that, although the architecture of the Eurozone has been largely reshuffled, the end point has probably not been reached yet. First, it is necessary to make debt restructuring possible within the Eurozone. In pa...
Article
We study the implication of yuan internationalization on the stability of the international monetary system. More specifically, we use a three-country, three-currency portfolio model to analyze the impact of yuan internationalization on exchange rates in the event of trade shocks, with stock-flow adjustment of the net foreign asset positions. We sh...
Research
We review the solutions put forward between May 2010 and September 2012 by European policymakers to address the four aspects of the euro-area crisis: (i) the sovereign debt crisis, (ii) the banking crisis, (iii) the competitiveness crisis and (iv) the governance crisis. We show that progress has been uneven in each of these areas. We highlight the...
Article
The euro, in spite of having many of the required attributes put forward by the theoretical literature and past experience, has failed to fulfill all the criteria that would enable it to rival the dollar as an international currency. This does not mean that the euro cannot achieve a status similar to that of the dollar; however, the window of oppor...
Article
Alors que la reprise paraît bien engagée aux États-Unis et au Royaume-Uni, la zone euro peine à seredresser, sans avoir pourtant subi de choc spécifique depuis 2012. On peut s’interroger sur la responsabilité des politiques macroéconomiques menées dans la zone, autant que sur les problèmes plus structurels qui aff ectent les États membres. L’objet...
Book
Quinze ans après sa création en 1999, la monnaie unique européenne sort difficilement d'une crise qui a mis son existence même en péril. Les gouvernements européens ont créé des dispositifs de secours, renforcé la coordination de leurs politiques et jeté les bases d'une union bancaire, tandis que la Banque centrale européenne faisait son possible p...
Article
Based on simulations of an original DGE model of the US and the Chinese economies under various monetary regimes, we show that an overhaul of China's social safety net is capable of reducing global imbalances whatever the exchange-rate regime, provided international capital flows are allowed to react to expected return differentials, which requires...
Article
Economic analysis is increasingly addressing long‐term issues (such as global warming) that require a dynamic baseline for the world economy. In this article, we develop a three‐factor (capital, energy, labour) macroeconometric (MaGE – Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy) model, and project growth for 147 countries to 2050. We improve on the li...
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We study the implication of a multipolarization of the international monetary system on cross-currency volatility. More specifically, we analyze whether the internationalization of the yuan could modify the impact of asset supply and trade shocks on the euro-dollar exchange rate, within a three-country, three-currency portfolio model. Our static mo...
Article
We study the contribution of market regulations in the dynamics of the real exchange rate within the European Union. Based on a model proposed by De Gregorio et al. (1994a), we show that both product market regulations in nontradable sectors and employment protection tend to inflate the real exchange rate. We then carry out an econometric estimatio...
Article
We study the impact of a broadening of the SDR basket to the Chinese currency on the composition and volatility of the basket. Although, in the past, RMB inclusion would have had almost negligible impact due to its limited weight, a much more significant impact can be expected in the next decades, and more so if the Chinese currency is pegged to th...
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We provide a first attempt to include off-balance sheet, implicit insurance to SIFIs into a consistent assessment of fiscal sustainability, for 27 countries of the European Union. We first calculate tax gaps à la Blanchard (1990) and Blanchard et al. (1990). We then introduce two alternative measures of implicit off-balance sheet liabilities relate...
Article
This paper documents time variation in fiscal policy multipliers in Germany, the UK and the US over the period 1971–2009. The analysis is based on a quarterly vector autoregression (VAR) model. For the German and the UK cases, the VAR is augmented by “global factors” representing developments in the world economy. By estimating these models on diff...
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We present growth scenarios for 147 countries to 2050, based on MaGE (Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy), a three-factor production function that includes capital, labour and energy. We improve on the literature by accounting for the energy constraint through dynamic modelling of energy productivity, and departing from the assumptions of eith...
Article
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Nous etudions la maniere dont les exportateurs d’un pays reagissent a un choc de TVA dans un pays de destination. Les chocs de TVA atant par nature quasi permanents, exogenes et sans impact sur le cout marginal, l’etude de leurs repercussions sur les prix permet d’identifier dans quelle mesure les taux de marge permettent d’amortir l’impact du choc...
Article
Alors que la crise de la dette souveraine s'approfondit, les partenaires de l'Europe hésitent toujours à offrir leur aide à la zone euro. Ils considèrent que l'Union doit avant tout s'appuyer sur ses propres ressources et résoudre ses problèmes de gouvernance. Pourtant, cette crise constitue une nouvelle menace pour les autres pays, plus particuliè...
Article
We study how French exporters react to a VAT shock in a destination country. As VAT shocks are by nature almost permanent, exogenous, and without impact on marginal costs, the subsequent price reaction makes it possible to identify a pure demand-led mark-up adjustment. The results of an analysis of French customs data for 1995-2005 indicate a 67 %...
Article
Dans le cadre des discussions sur la réforme du système monétaire international, le Droit de Tirage Spécial (DTS) a connu un regain d'intérêt. La décision des ministres des finances et banquiers centraux du G20, en avril 2011, de travailler à un "sentier d'élargissement du DTS fondé sur des critères"1 laisse envisager l'inclusion de la monnaie chin...
Article
This paper proposes a systematic analysis of the problem of world consistency when deriving equilibrium exchange rates. World inconsistency can arise for two reasons. First, real effective misalignments of currencies out of the considered sample are implicitly assumed to be the mirror image of those of the currencies under review. Second, only N −...
Article
La réforme du système monétaire international (SMI) figure en bonne place à l'agenda du G20, dont la France assure la présidence pour un an. L'hégémonie du dollar est remise en cause depuis de nombreuses années et la crise de 2007-2009 a encore renforcé la défiance à l'égard du billet vert. Les mutations de l'économie mondiale actuellement à l'œuvr...
Article
Après trois décennies d'apathie, la réforme du système monétaire international est de nouveau à l'ordre du jour. À court terme, les chances d'une refonte majeure sont minces. Néanmoins, des mesures concrètes devraient être prises. Tout d'abord, un consensus doit être trouvé sur les taux de change, les flux de capitaux et les réserves. Ce consensus,...
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In this paper, we address the issue of IMF quota calculation in several directions. We first discuss the relevance of various specifications regarding the choice of variables, the way to measure them and the potential functional forms. Then, relying on long-run projections for GDP, trade and foreign direct investment, we compare the ‘old’ system of...
Article
Reform of the international monetary system is under discussion after three decades of apathy. However, in the short term, there is little chance of a grand redesign of the international monetary system. Nevertheless, concrete steps should be taken. First, consensus is needed on exchange rates, capital flows and reserves. This consensus is closer t...
Article
Bien que le RMB ne soit pas encore convertible, le regime monetaire international a entame une transition vers un systeme plus « multipolaire », dont les piliers pourraient, a terme, etre le dollar, le renminbi et l’euro. Cette evolution ne fait qu’accompagner celle des poids respectifs des differents pays et zones dans l’economie mondiale. Elle po...
Article
We propose a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a monetary union facing asymmetric terms-of-trade shocks, calibrated on Nigeria and West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Three monetary regimes are successively studied at the union level: a flexible exchange rate with constant money supply, a flexible exchange ra...
Book
Economic Policy provides a unique combination of facts-based analysis, state-of-the art economic theory, and insights from first-hand policy experience at the national and international levels to shed light on current domestic and international policy challenges. It is ideally suited for students, practitioners, and scholars seeking understanding b...
Article
Based on a simple, stock-flow adjustment framework, we show that existing concepts of equilibrium exchange rates can be viewed as realizations of the same model at different time horizons. We then compare fundamental and behavioral estimations of equilibrium exchange rates based on the same, econometric modeling of the net foreign asset position in...
Article
Eleven years after the creation of the euro, this article surveys the international role of the European currency. The external representation ofEurozone has not yet reached its equilibrium point, and the relative economic weight of the area is bound to diminish in future years but this has not prevented the euro from gaining a prominent role on in...
Article
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Meeting Eyes on the International Financial System. During the 27th Journées d’économie financière et monétaire (Bordeaux, June 2010 ; CNRS GdRE 335), the authors have been discussing different points of view relative to the International Financial System. Marc Flandreau analyzes how the acceptances market has been used by the Americain central ban...
Article
The Eurozone crisis is much more than a sovereign debt crisis. It calls into question the whole architecture of economic policy, from monetary policy to macroeconomic surveillance and sanctions. Beyond the short-run urgencies, EU members need to come out with a clear view of what kind of coordination device they want to invent. There are several ro...
Article
Despite increasing capital mobility and the subsequent difficulty in controlling exchange rates, intermediate exchange-rate regimes have remained widespread, especially in emerging and developing economies. This piece of evidence hardly fits the "impossible Trinity" theory arguing that it becomes difficult to control the exchange rate without a "ha...
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This Letter du CEPII draws on the meeting of the fifth Asia-Europe Economic Forum held in Tokyo on 25 March 2010. The forum brought together a broad range of participants including policymakers, academic experts and private sector specialists. This year, the agenda focused on reforms, national budgets, G20 hopes from both Asian and European perspec...
Article
The international role of the euro : chronicle of a decade Eleven years after the creation of the euro, this article surveys the international role of the European currency. The external representation of Eurozone has not yet reached its equilibrium point, and the relative economic weight of the area is bound to diminish in future years but this ha...
Article
We study the impact of the global financial crisis on the equilibrium exchange rate of the US dollar. We first simulate the impact of the crisis on the US net foreign asset position. Then, we calculate the equilibrium value of the dollar according both to a BEER and to a FEER approach. We find the case for a strong, although temporary, depreciation...
Article
This paper is concerned with the robustness of equilibrium exchange rate estimations based on the BEER approach for a set of both industrial and emerging countries. The robustness is studied in four directions, successively. First, we investigate the impact of using alternative proxies for relative productivity. Second, we analyze the impact of est...
Article
Much attention has been paid to the sharp fall in world trade associated with the economic crisis during the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. Alarming forecasts have been published for the whole year of 2009 and several explanations have been offered. In particular, beyond the credit crunch and the global drop in demand, it has b...
Article
This paper studies whether the Euro area has, since 1999, implemented OECD’s recommendations concerning macroeconomic policies, as formulated in 2006, i.e. sound and counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies, in coordination with structural reforms. It argues that monetary policy has been more in line with OECD’s recommendations than has been f...
Article
We examine the effect of exchange-rate misalignments on competition in the market for large commercial aircraft. This market is a duopoly where players compete in dollar-denominated prices while one of them, Airbus, incurs costs mostly in euros. We construct and calibrate a simulation model to investigate how companies adjust their prices to deal w...
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We propose a two-country DSGE model of the Dutch disease in a monetary union, calibrated on Nigeria and WAEMU. Three monetary regimes are successively studied at the union level: a flexible exchange rate with constant money supply, a flexible exchange rate with an accommodating monetary policy, and a fixed exchange rate regime. We find that, in the...
Article
Everywhere in the world, the need for fiscal stimulus has caused a severe deterioration of fiscal balances and raised the unavoidable question of debt sustainability. In the Euro area, the recent initiation of Excessive Deficit procedures by the European Commission against the countries with high deficits has heated this debate. Still, the Euro are...
Article
We study the impact of rotating votes in the ECB Governing Council after EMU enlargement, based on national and euro-wide Taylor rules and on a convergence assumption. We find that the rotation system yields monetary policy decisions that are close both to full centralization and to a voting rule without rotations.
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In the wake of the global crisis the G20 has largely substituted the G7 as the key forum for international economic cooperation. However, G7 and non-G7 members of the G20 come to G20 meetings with different priorities. Developed countries have taken a direct hit on their banking and financial systems as a result of the crisis and they accordingly g...
Article
The brutal drop in global trade during the last quarter of 2008 and the first months of 2009 has been the subject of much discussion. Some have seen this fall-off, which was considerably steeper than the accompanying decline in production, as a reversal of previous trends. The international fragmentation of supply chains is believed to have sped up...
Article
Just like any market price, the exchange rate for the dollar fluctuates based on supply and demand. By observing the constituent elements of the supply and demand for dollar assets, we can thus explain the significant appreciation of the dollar during the second half of 2008. Over this period, during which the crisis spread to the whole of the glob...
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Bruegel Director Jean Pisani-Ferry, with Agn�s B�nassy-Qu�r� (CEPII, University Paris-Ouest and Ecole Polytechnique, Paris), Beno�t Coeur� (Ecole Polytechnique, Paris) and Pierre Jacquet (ENPC, Paris, and Agence Fran�aise de D�veloppement) provide an in-depth analysis of the financial crisis. The authors review the main causes of the crisis, pointi...