Adam Millard-Ball's research while affiliated with University of Southern California and other places

Publications (61)

Article
Full-text available
We analyze what ridehail drivers do when searching for paid fares. We use a dataset of 5.3 million trips in San Francisco and partition each search trip into cruising, repositioning, and parking segments. We find that repositioning accounts for nearly two-thirds (63%) of the time between trips, with cruising and parking accounting for 23% and 14% r...
Article
This paper examines equity’s incorporation into Climate Action Plans (CAPs), an increasingly important part of the urban sustainability planning landscape. We conduct a content analysis of 170 California CAPs and compare the plans’ treatment of equity to city characteristics such as size and income inequality. We find that equity language correlate...
Article
Full-text available
We identify a disciplinary divide in how the environmental impacts of urbanization are presented in ecology and urban planning journals. We analyzed the sentiments expressed in 202,900 journal articles and found that articles in ecology journals discuss urbanization three times more negatively relative to urban planning journals. Articles in both d...
Chapter
This chapter examines social equity in climate action plans (CAPs) produced by local governments in California. We find that social equity is increasingly included in CAPs, but that equity policies frequently lack specificity and are mainly rhetorical in nature. We identify a “plans/needs mismatch,” with the content of CAPs being disconnected from...
Article
Full-text available
We analyze GPS traces of 5,316 trips that are cruising for parking in San Francisco and Ann Arbor, and use cluster analysis to develop a typology of five distinct types of search strategy. Our most striking finding is that most cruising trips do not involve circling. Partly because most drivers are able to find a space relatively quickly, a more ty...
Article
Full-text available
Problem, research strategy, and findings: The width of street rights-of-way is normally determined by traffic engineering and urban design conventions, without considering the immense value of the underlying land. In this article, I develop an economic framework that can inform decisions on street width, and I use tax parcel data to quantify the wi...
Article
Problem, research strategy, and findings Why would plans have an impact on the built environment when their provisions can be revisited in the context of individual development decisions? I examined the causal impacts of transit-oriented development (TOD) plans in San Francisco (CA) and Seattle (WA) using a mixed methods approach, combining qualita...
Article
We investigate diversity in urban planning education by analyzing the gender and race/ethnicity of authors who are assigned on reading lists for urban sustainability courses. Using a sample of 772 readings from thirty-two syllabi, we find that assigned authors are even less diverse than planning faculty. Female authors account for 28 percent of ass...
Article
Credibly identifying how the built environment shapes behaviour is empirically challenging, because people select residential locations based on differing constraints and preferences for site amenities. Our study overcomes these research barriers by leveraging San Francisco’s affordable housing lotteries, which randomly allow specific households to...
Article
Full-text available
Abstract Win—win outcomes between biodiversity conservation and local economic development are now a goal of many governments and conservation organizations but can be difficult to achieve. Where they occur, reductions in poverty from protected areas are often thought to be driven by economic gains from tourism that are sufficient to outweigh losse...
Article
This paper presents a method for determining parking search behavior using GPS traces. The research takes advantage of a GPS based household travel survey, an extensive dataset of GPS with video, and a commercially purchased set of trip segments. Strategies for data cleaning, matching traces to digitized networks, assessing the probability that a t...
Article
Full-text available
Parking infrastructure is pervasive and occupies large swaths of land in cities. However, on-demand (OD) mobility has started reducing parking needs in urban areas around the world. This trend is expected to grow significantly with the advent of autonomous driving, which might render on-demand mobility predominant. Recent studies have started looki...
Article
Cruising for parking has long been perceived as a major source of congestion and emissions in urban areas, but recent empirical work suggests that parking may not be as onerous as folklore suggests, and that the amount of vehicle travel attributable to cruising is minimal. In this paper, we reconcile these perspectives through a dynamic programming...
Article
Full-text available
We present a global time series of street-network sprawl—that is, sprawl as measured through the local connectivity of the street network. Using high-resolution data from OpenStreetMap and a satellite-derived time series of urbanization, we compute and validate changes over time in multidimensional street connectivity measures based on graph-theore...
Article
Full-text available
Disconnected urban street networks, which we call “street-network sprawl,” are strongly associated with increased vehicle travel, energy use and CO2 emissions, as shown by previous research in Europe and North America. In this paper, we provide the first systematic and globally commensurable measures of street-network sprawl based on graph-theoreti...
Article
Global Positioning System (GPS) data have become ubiquitous in many areas of transportation planning and research. The usefulness of GPS data often depends on the points being matched to the true sequence of edges on the underlying street network – a process known as ‘map matching.’ This paper presents a new map-matching algorithm that is designed...
Preprint
We present the first global time series of street-network sprawl — that is, sprawl as measured through the local connectivity of the street network. Using high-resolution data from OpenStreetMap and a satellite-derived time series of urbanization, we compute and validate changes over time in multidimensional street connectivity measures based on gr...
Preprint
Disconnected urban street networks, which we call “street-network sprawl,” are strongly associated with increased vehicle travel, energy use and CO_{2} emissions, as shown by previous research in Europe and North America. In this paper, we provide the first systematic and globally commensurable measures of street-network sprawl based on graph-theor...
Article
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) have no need to park close to their destination, or even to park at all. Instead, AVs can seek out free on-street parking, return home, or cruise (circle around). Because cruising is less costly at lower speeds, a game theoretic framework shows that AVs also have the incentive to implicitly coordinate with each other in or...
Article
The distribution of conservation effort on the landscape is affected by both ecological and social priorities and constraints. Together these influences can result in bias towards certain types of ecological or human communities. We evaluate the distribution of restoration projects on the California Central Coast, USA, to evaluate sociopolitical an...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Global citizens get few moments to rethink streets and make decisions that will both serve the basic purposes of transportation and address urgent challenges like climate change, rising obesity, social isolation and conflict-all while expanding opportunities for general happiness throughout society. Such a pivotal moment is upon us, as autonomous v...
Article
Full-text available
OpenStreetMap, a crowdsourced geographic database, provides the only global-level, openly licensed source of geospatial road data, and the only national-level source in many countries. However, researchers, policy makers, and citizens who want to make use of OpenStreetMap (OSM) have little information about whether it can be relied upon in a partic...
Data
Further details on methods, results, and source data. A separate PDF outlines all associated resources. These resources are permanently available at https://alum.mit.edu/www/cpbl/publications/PLOS2017roads. (PDF)
Article
License-plate-based driving restrictions are among the highest profile policies for local governments to address congestion and air pollution. Cities as varied as Sao Paulo, Paris, Tianjin, and New Delhi have enacted temporary or permanent restrictions to improve local air quality. Using household travel survey data and a research design based on t...
Article
Full-text available
We quantify the importance of early action to tackle urban sprawl. We focus on the long-term nature of infrastructure decisions, specifically local roadways, which can lock in greenhouse gas emissions for decades to come. The location and interconnectedness of local roadways form a near-permanent backbone for the future layout of land parcels, buil...
Article
Full-text available
The number of cars searching for parking, also known as “cruising,” is a risk factor linked to increased pollution and congestion and decreased road safety. Although the detrimental effects of cruising are known, the actual amount of cruising is unknown. A novel video data set of naturalistic driving is shown to provide reliable estimates of cruisi...
Article
Full-text available
California is one of the least greenhouse-gas intensive states in the United States, and one of the most energy efficient economies in the world. Its success is partly an accident of geography, due to a temperate climate, and its service-based economy with little emissions-intensive industry. But California’s governors, state legislators, and local...
Article
Autonomous vehicles, popularly known as self-driving cars, have the potential to transform travel behavior. However, existing analyses have ignored strategic interactions with other road users. In this article, I use game theory to analyze the interactions between pedestrians and autonomous vehicles, with a focus on yielding at crosswalks. Because...
Article
Cities have emerged as important actors in climate change policy, implementing measures to reduce emissions from transportation, buildings, and waste. More recently, states such as California have implemented cap-and-trade programs to control greenhouse gases. However, a state-level cap handcuffs cities: by fixing emissions at the level of the cap,...
Article
Full-text available
The urban street network is one of the most permanent features of cities. Once laid down, the pattern of streets determines urban form and the level of sprawl for decades to come. We present a high-resolution time series of urban sprawl, as measured through street network connectivity, in the United States from 1920 to 2012. Sprawl started well bef...
Article
The Trip Generation Manual is the standard reference for assessing the impacts of new development on traffic congestion and the environment in the United States. However, a comparison to household surveys suggests that the Trip Generation Manual overestimates trips by 55 percent—likely because its data represent a biased sample of development in th...
Article
The city of San Francisco is undertaking a large-scale controlled parking pricing experiment. San Francisco has adopted a performance goal of 60–80% occupancy for its metered parking. The goal represents an heuristic performance measure intended to reduce double parking and cruising for parking, and improve the driver experience; it follows a wave...
Article
Full-text available
Adam Millard-Ball, Rachel Weinberger, and Robert Hampshire critically comment on Pierce and Shoup's article 'Evaluating the Impacts of Performance-Based Parking'. In principle, a performance-based parking system such as SFpark, which adjusts prices in a bid to achieve target occupancy for curb parking, is an excellent way to reduce congestion and t...
Article
Some argue that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity. We examine the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. Our model uses historical relationships to project future demand for a) transport services, b) all liquid fuels, and c) substitution with alternati...
Article
If planning is to matter for urban development and policy, it is not sufficient for plans to be implemented. Plans and planning must also have a causal role — they must lead to outcomes that would not be realized otherwise. In case studies of municipal climate action planning in California, I find little evidence for any causal impacts. Instead, ci...
Article
Sectoral crediting has been proposed as a way to scale up project-level carbon offset programs, and provide sector-wide incentives for developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, simulations presented here suggest that information asymmetries and large uncertainties in predicting counterfactual business-as-usual (BAU) emission...
Article
Without effective developing country participation in climate mitigation it will be impossible to meet global concentration and climate change targets. However, developing countries are unwilling and, in many cases, unable to bear the mitigation cost alone. They need huge transfers of resources – financial, knowledge, technology, and capability – f...
Article
More than 600 local governments in the US are developing climate action plans that lay out specific measures to reduce emissions from municipal operations, households and firms. To date, however, it is unclear whether these plans are being implemented or have any causal effects on emissions. Using data from California, I provide the first quantitat...
Article
Geoengineering research has historically been inhibited by fears that the perceived availability of a technological fix for climate change, such as the deployment of space-based reflectors, may undermine greenhouse gas abatement efforts. I develop a game theoretic model to show that the credible threat of unilateral geoengineering may instead stren...
Article
Projections of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for industrialized countries typically show continued growth in vehicle ownership, vehicle use and overall travel demand. This represents a continuation of trends from the 1970s through the early 2000s. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of cross-national passenger transport trends in e...
Article
The existing literature generally ascribes the virtual absence of the transport sector from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to the inherent complexity of quantifying emission reductions from mobile sources. We use archival analysis and interviews with CDM decision-makers and experts to identify two additional groups of explanations. First, we...
Article
This paper identifies for transportation planners five key implications of extending cap-and-trade for greenhouse gas emissions to the transportation sector, as envisaged in legislative and regulatory proposals in the U.S. Congress and in the western states and Canadian provinces. First, cap-and-trade would increase gasoline prices as refiners and...
Article
This paper analyzes five different options for incorporating the transportation sector into a carbon cap-and-trade program. An upstream system at the refinery or importer level would be administratively simple but would lead to minimal reductions in transportation emissions as a result of inelastic demand for driving. In effect, emissions reduction...
Article
This paper identifies for transportation planners five key implications of extending cap-and-trade for greenhouse gas emissions to the transportation sector, as envisaged in legislative and regulatory proposals in the U.S. Congress and in the western states and Canadian provinces. First, cap-and-trade would increase gasoline prices as refiners and...
Article
This paper analyzes five different options for incorporating the transportation sector into a carbon cap-and-trade program. An upstream system at the refinery or importer level would be administratively simple but would lead to minimal reductions in transportation emissions as a result of inelastic demand for driving. In effect, emissions reduction...
Article
A tool to assess the market potential for new carsharing operations in urban communities is examined and applied. The research is based on the analysis conducted for TCRP Report 108: Carsharing: Where and How It Succeeds. Geographic market segments in urban areas are analyzed. A geographic information system (GIS)–based analysis of 13 U.S. regions...
Article
Carsharing offers access to cars and other vehicles without ownership of those vehicles. This transportation option is growing rapidly in the United States and Canada. In appropriate community settings, carshar-ing can increase mobility, reduce vehicle travel, and complement other transportation modes. In a TCRP project that provided a wide-ranging...
Article
Carsharing offers access to cars and other vehicles without ownership of those vehicles. This transportation option is growing rapidly in the United States and Canada. In appropriate community settings, carsharing can increase mobility, reduce vehicle travel, and complement other transportation modes. In a TCRP project that provided a wide-ranging...
Article
TRB’s Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Report 108: Car-Sharing--Where and How It Succeeds examines development and implementation of car-sharing services. Issues addressed in the report include the roles of car-sharing in enhancing mobility as part of the transportation system; the characteristics of car-sharing members and neighborhoods...

Citations

... We found that even when plan content does change with the addition of equity-that is, even among gray or housing-oriented CAPs-recommended policies often take this form, usually citing state mandates or echoing consultants' boilerplate. (See Sirigotis et al. [2022] for a more detailed discussion of the role of such state mandates and boilerplate text.) This pattern is visible in the lower scores that housing policies received overall. ...
... From a city planning perspective, linear infrastructure (LI) can comprise up to 36% of the urban landscape (Millard-Ball, 2021;Gössling et al., 2016). LIs are defined predominantly by transportation systems (roads and railways) and utility corridors (pipelines and electricity transmission corridors) (Chester and Horvath, 2008). ...
... The predictive accuracy rate of Ethnicolr was evaluated at 83%. Currently, this package has been used in a number of studies to identify ethnicity ( Kasthurirathne & Grannis, 2019 ;Marschke, Nunez, Weinberg & Yu, 2018 ;Millard-Ball, Desai & Fahrney, 2021 ). Based on the last name, the Census model divided individuals into six categories combining race and ethnicity: Non-Hispanic White Alone (White), Non-Hispanic Black or African American Alone (Black), Non-Hispanic Asian and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Alone (Api), Non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native Alone (Aian), Non-Hispanic Two or More Races (Mrace), and Hispanic or Latino origin (Hispanic). ...
... Parking supply is one of the most neglected elements of the built environment in travel behavior analyses. Despite ample research acknowledging and exploring the importance that parking-or specifically unconstrained and free parking-plays in dominating the urban landscape, only a few studies have statistically linked higher rates of parking supply with greater levels of vehicle use (Chatman 2013;Shoup 2017;Guo 2013;Appleyard 2012;Ewing and Cervero 2001;McCahill et al. 2016; Van Acker and Witlox 2010;Millard-Ball et al. 2021). This gap stems from the dearth of parking-related data, which makes it difficult to explore the influences of parking on vehicle demand (Currans et al. 2020a;Manville 2017). ...
... However, the tourist influx increases the probability of forest fires and contamination from waste accumulation in open garbage dumps (Rada et al., 2015). In addition, the economic gains from tourism might not be sufficient to outweigh monetary and cultural losses due to restrictions on traditional productive activities (Quadri- Barba et al., 2021;Turner et al., 2003). ...
... Effective development and construction of transportation land can attract capital inflow, create employment opportunities, and shape the vitality of the regional economy [22][23][24]. The construction and operation of urban transportation land require large quantities of labor, material resources, and services. ...
... SMA tools are employed to simulate driver behavior and to analyze the search-flow impact of a vacant parking space on road network performance [3][4][5][6][7], whereas analytical studies that focus on the interaction relationship among parking and traffic often incorporate economic analyses [8,9], macroscopic models [3] and traffic allocation models [10]. Meanwhile empirical studies are based on driver surveys [11,12], video recordings, GPS data [13] and parking occupancy data [14]. ...
... • In terms of improving the urban microclimate and responding to the challenge of urban heat islands [73]; • In analyses of major environmental threats, e.g., flooding [84,85], heat waves, and air quality [73,88]; • In the enhancement of efficient land use management [89] and emission reduction and decarbonization [88,100]. ...
... In such situations, the total search time decreases, particularly when drivers park near the point where they start to search for a vacant place, as the participants did in scenario 2 (Fig. 7,9). This assertion corresponds to Millard-Ball et al. (2020), who found that search time for on-street parking decreased if the parking place was near the starting search point of the driver. This finding contrasts with the situation of underpriced on-street, like scenario 1, where lower prices lead to longer cruises around the destination. ...
... For instance, Moosavi [10] used a deep learning method to explore a large number of street networks in more than one million cities, towns and villages all over the world. He clustered these street networks into three groups, i.e., (1) villages and undeveloped areas; (2) the majority of towns and small cities; and (3) unique and very dense cities. Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball [29,30] proposed the Street-Network Disconnected index to detect eight typical street network types and used data on 46 million km of mapped streets worldwide to analyze a global time series of street network sprawl. However, the global pattern mapped by Moosavi [10] is related to urban development, and that mapped by Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball [29,30] is related to urban sprawl. ...