Abdullah Yavas’s research while affiliated with University of Wisconsin–Madison and other places

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Publications (94)


Behavior in long‐run projects and elicited time preferences
  • Article

October 2024

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2 Reads

Zafer Akin

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Abdullah Yavaş

We investigate behavior in long‐run projects and its relationship with experimentally elicited time preferences. Participants engage in a longitudinal project requiring sustained real effort, with their time preferences estimated through monetary outcomes. We observe a tendency to front‐load real effort, with choices reflecting both present and future bias, the former being more prevalent and severe. We also find evidence of naive choice reversals. However, there is no support for the quasi‐hyperbolic discounting model in monetary choices, and its predictions do not align with real effort allocation patterns. Nevertheless, discount rate and present bias parameters derived from monetary outcomes demonstrate predictive power over real effort allocation.





Micro Evidence Relating to House Rents, Prices and Investor Size from a Matched Dataset
  • Article
  • Publisher preview available

December 2023

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29 Reads

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1 Citation

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics

Jessica Rutherford

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Ronald Rutherford

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Abdullah Yavas

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[...]

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Marcus T. Allen

We examine matched rent-price ratios and rent transaction prices for single-family houses in Miami-Dade County between January 2009 and April 2014. The primary dataset consists of properties that are purchased and then rented within 240 days of the purchase. Each of the buyers in the sample are considered investors since each property included has a rental event indicating they are not owner occupied. We examine the relationship between housing and market characteristics and the impact active investors have on single-family rents and rent-price ratios. Entities that purchase the largest number of units pay more for properties, obtain marginally higher rent and obtain lower rent-to-price ratios.

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Misreporting of second liens in portfolio mortgages and privately securitized mortgages

December 2023

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5 Reads

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1 Citation

Real Estate Economics

Using a unique nationwide mortgage servicing dataset, this paper investigates the underreporting of second liens in portfolio mortgages and compares underreporting in portfolio versus privately securitized mortgages. Portfolio loans have more than 40% of the second liens underreported. Low documentation securitized loans have a 47% (in relative terms) lower misreporting rate than observably similar portfolio loans. The portfolio setting allows us to provide strong evidence that misreporting happens in the early stages of intermediation by lenders. The decreased occurrence of misreporting in sold loans subjected to more rigorous screening indicates the effectiveness of MBS issuers' screening, though its overall effect remains limited. Further, we show that the lender‐MBS issuer affiliation also plays a role in misreporting.



Externalities of residential property flipping

October 2022

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17 Reads

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5 Citations

Real Estate Economics

This study investigates whether flipping activities impose an externality on the transaction prices of the neighboring non‐flipped properties. Using a dataset of residential property transactions in Clark County, Nevada for the period 2003–2013, we find that flippers impose a significant positive impact on the price of neighboring non‐flipped properties in an up market, but a significant negative effect in a down market. This pro‐cyclical impact of flipping activity contributes to the volatility of housing prices, hence magnifying boom and bust cycles and increasing the likelihood of a mortgage crisis. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved


Social Capital and Mortgage Delinquency

April 2022

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146 Reads

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23 Citations

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics

This study offers a simple theoretical model and empirical evidence to address the impact of social capital on mortgage delinquency. Social capital includes the norms, values, trust, and information common to a social network, which enable cooperative and shared actions. Using a new county-level dataset between 1999 and 2011 for the U.S, we find new evidence to show that social capital significantly affects the likelihood of mortgage delinquency. In particular, we find that a one-standard-deviation increase in social capital leads to a 0.13 standard deviation decrease in mortgage delinquency. The effect of social capital remains significant after controlling for location fixed effects and addressing endogeneity. The primary explanation is that social norms or trust could limit opportunistic behavior among homeowners and negatively affect strategic default activities. We also find that the impact of social capital on mortgage delinquency increased after the recent financial crisis. Furthermore, we show that the impact of social capital is more pronounced when the default is more likely to be strategic. Our findings have important implications for players in the mortgage industry and for policymakers in that cooperative and shared actions can play an important role in the mortgage default process. Thus, the assessment of default risk should consider social capital in addition to the factors already documented in the literature.


Private Mortgage Securitization and Loss Given Default

February 2022

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10 Reads

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3 Citations

Real Estate Economics

Loan performance varies by default probability and loss given default (LGD). While the relationship between securitization and default probability has been studied intensively, the effect of securitization on LGD remains unexplored. Using a unique dataset containing over forty thousand mortgage liquidations, this paper studies the effect of private securitization on LGD. We document that securitized loans incur higher LGD than observably similar portfolio loans. The results indicate that the effect comes mainly from the difference in loan quality between securitized and portfolio loans. Securitized opaque mortgages incur more than 18% (in relative terms) higher loan losses than observably similar portfolio loans. In addition, a difference‐in‐difference analysis provides evidence that pre‐crisis securitization standards contributed to higher loan losses. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved


Citations (79)


... A robust financial sector is of paramount importance to the United States, which is the world's preeminent emerging nation. The insurance industry, trust sector, and stock market in this country are substantially less developed than those in Europe or China, which is why this is significant (Kim & Sohn, 2024;Yavas & Zhu, 2024). The primary goal of banks is to finance capital expenditures, investments, and consumption by accumulating deposits and granting loans to individuals, organizations, and governments. ...

Reference:

Investigating Factors Affecting Loan Loss Reserves in the US Financial Sector: A Dynamic Panel Regression Analysis with Fixed-Effects Models
Private Mortgage Securitization and Adverse Selection - New Evidence from Expected Loan Losses
  • Citing Article
  • February 2024

Journal of Banking & Finance

... It should be emphasized that flipping is recognized worldwide [3]. Researchers describe it as a negative phenomenon for the real estate market [4], and some even consider it to be on the verge of illegal activity [5]. On the other hand, it is important to remember the freedom of trade in market economies and the possibility of shortterm investments in the real estate market (which absolutely cannot be equated with an undesirable phenomenon) [6]. ...

Externalities of residential property flipping
  • Citing Article
  • October 2022

Real Estate Economics

... An increased understanding of valuation and loss-given defaults can explain the differences in mortgage lending losses and one of the mechanisms behind the informational asymmetry between banks and investors. Such biases between banks and investors contribute to significant losses in securitized mortgage lending portfolios (Higgins et al., 2022). ...

Private Mortgage Securitization and Loss Given Default
  • Citing Article
  • February 2022

Real Estate Economics

... Studies on global warming have examined its influence on the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes (Bender et al., 2010), and the spatial implications of global warming, considering factors such as geography, migration, trade, and economic activity (Desmet & Rossi-Hansberg, 2015). Research on hurricanes has found lower market values for houses in floodplains and significant price discounts after major hurricane events (Ellen & Meltzer, 2024;Fang et al., 2023;McKenzie & Levendis, 2010). The impact of hurricanes on commercial real estate has also been examined, showing significant effects on value and return, varying by property type and persisting for several years after the event (Addoum et al., 2024; Perceptions of Climate Change and the Pricing of Disaster Risk… ...

The Impact of Distant Hurricane on Local Housing Markets

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics

... Furthermore, as professionally managed listed firms, REITs are also subject to intense scrutiny and traded by a variety of investor types (Gupta & Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021;Sagi, 2021). Although the lack of high-frequency, transaction-based, price movements in private CRE markets prevents the detection of portfolio valuation changes in "real time," we argue that the effects of actual and expected future climate events we observe in the highly liquid REIT market are indicative of the effects occurring in the much larger private CRE market (Fan & Yavas, 2023). 3 We begin by providing a conceptual framework for understanding the potential effects of historical climate events, as well as assessments of future climate risk/events, on the stock prices and returns of listed REITs. ...

Price Dynamics in Public and Private Commercial Real Estate Markets

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics

... Communities with more people donating are better communities. Abundant social capital in a community is linked to improved intergenerationally mobility (Chetty et al. (2014)), more innovations (Hasan et al. (2020)), lower mortgage delinquency rates (Li et al. (2020)), and fewer infections during the COVID-19 pandemic (Makridis and Wu (2021)). Our study documents a positive relationship between homeownership and the likelihood to donate, a crucial indicator of social capital. ...

Social Capital and Mortgage Delinquency

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics

... A real estate agent working with a landlord may face an incentive to complete a rental listing agreement with little effort as possible. Emmerling et al. (2020) show that a low list price can increase the arrival of bids for a property for sale. Hence, a real estate agent could quickly and perhaps effortlessly complete a rental transaction by advising a less informed landlord to underprice a rental property. ...

To accept or not to accept: Optimal strategy for sellers in real estate
  • Citing Article
  • April 2020

Real Estate Economics

... According to economic theory, the price level is the result of the actions of the demand and supply sides operating in the market. Market players' actions, over a long period, lead to the achievement of an equilibrium point in the real estate market, which, at least from a theoretical point of view, establishes the market equilibrium price (Fan et al., 2019;Ionașcu et al., 2019;Łaszek et al., 2016;Tsai, 2019). In economic theory, the issue seems simple and easy to model; however, due to its key role in the economy, the residential real estate market is often monitored by the government. ...

Understanding Real Estate Price Dynamics: The Case of Housing Prices in Five Major Cities of China
  • Citing Article
  • September 2018

Journal of Housing Economics

... Flood et al. (1999) conjecture that dealers' search costs may make them adopt more aggressive pricing strategies. More closely related to our work is Yavaş (1993), which investigates the effects of search costs on bid-ask spreads. He finds that bid-ask spreads decline as search intensities rise (due to lower search costs or higher efficiency of search, etc.). ...

A SIMPLE MODEL OF BID‐ASK SPREAD AND SEARCH
  • Citing Article
  • March 1993

Review of Financial Economics

... The primary variable of interest is consumer debt, and we hypothesize that a higher level of debt is associated with higher exposure to poverty. 3 We argue that while those who are borrowing in the current period may not necessarily be poor, they may be increasingly exposed to poverty in subsequent periods. As a potential mechanism, a higher level of current debt can impede one's ability to save for future consumption, emergencies, investments, and/or retirement, thereby leaving them exposed to unexpected future expenses and/or economic downturns (Fan and Yavas 2020). Additionally, the opportunity cost of servicing high-interest debt, instead of saving, limits the accumulation of wealth. ...

How Does Mortgage Debt Affect Household Consumption? Micro Evidence from China
  • Citing Article
  • April 2018

Real Estate Economics