November 2024
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2 Reads
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19 Citations
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Publications (158)
June 2023
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207 Reads
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7 Citations
![Validating the methodology using panel microdata. Notes: This figure reports estimates of the mobility parameter βt-1\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\beta }_{t-1}$$\end{document} based on aggregate moments (vertical axis) and true panel micro data (horizontal axis) for nine countries. For the estimation of βt-1\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\beta }_{t-1}$$\end{document} using micro data, outliers with Studentized residuals greater than 3 in absolute value are omitted from the regressions. (Note that these outliers are not dropped from the computation of the aggregate moments that are used to obtain the macro estimates.) The vertical lines indicate the range from the lower bound to the upper bound, while the red circles indicate the midpoint of this range](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359577054/figure/fig1/AS:1152554490699783@1651801812535/Validating-the-methodology-using-panel-microdata-Notes-This-figure-reports-estimates-of_Q320.jpg)
![Estimated mobility trends using micro and macro data. Notes: This figure reports the evolution over time of the estimated bounds on the mobility parameter βt-1\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\beta }_{t-1}$$\end{document} estimated using only data on aggregate moments of the income distribution, for each of the nine countries for which we have panel microdata that can be used to validate our method. The grey-shaded region contains the range between the lower and upper bounds on βt-1\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\beta }_{t-1}$$\end{document}, and the dashed line indicates the midpoint of the range. The two remaining lines show the time series of estimates of βt-1\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\beta }_{t-1}$$\end{document} based on the panel microdata, i.e. the slope coefficients from a series of an OLS regression of yit\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${y}_{it}$$\end{document} on yit-1\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${y}_{it-1}$$\end{document} at each point in time, using two alternative approaches to removing outliers from the individual-level data as discussed in Sect. 3.](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359577054/figure/fig2/AS:1152554490707968@1651801812552/Estimated-mobility-trends-using-micro-and-macro-data-Notes-This-figure-reports-the_Q320.jpg)
![Correlates of mobility across countries. Notes: This figure plots the average over time of the mid-point between the upper and lower bounds on βt-1\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\beta }_{t-1}$$\end{document} (on the vertical axis) against the correlates of mobility described in the main text (on the horizontal axis). In each panel, triangles correspond to the set of nine countries for which panel microdata exists, the squares correspond to the WID sample, and the circles correspond to the PovcalNet sample](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359577054/figure/fig3/AS:1152554490695685@1651801812583/Correlates-of-mobility-across-countries-Notes-This-figure-plots-the-average-over-time_Q320.jpg)
June 2022
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108 Reads
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3 Citations
Journal of Economic Growth
We propose a new method to approximate income distribution dynamics at the micro level using only macro data on aggregate moments of the income distribution. Under the assumption that individual incomes follow a lognormal autoregressive process, we show that the evolution of the mean and standard deviation of log income across individuals provides sufficient information to bound the degree of mobility. We estimate mobility bounds for 46 countries, using time series data on aggregate moments of the income distribution available in the World Inequality Database and the World Bank’s PovcalNet database. This new data allows us to study the correlates of mobility, and to document churning in the top and bottom of the income distribution, in a much larger set of countries than was previously possible.
January 2021
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37 Reads
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5 Citations
This chapter provides an introduction to the World Bank’s Human Capital Index (HCI). The HCI measures the level of human capital that a child born today can expect to attain if current trends patterns of health and education in a country persist into the future. The HCI is anchored in the literature on development accounting and is measured in terms of expected productivity as a future worker of a child born today, relative to the benchmark of complete education and full health. This chapter details the methodology of the HCI, presents findings from the 2020 edition of the HCI, and discusses a number of limitations and extensions.
August 2020
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31 Reads
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1 Citation
January 2020
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127 Reads
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8 Citations
September 2019
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14 Reads
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12 Citations
February 2019
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706 Reads
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88 Citations
The World Bank Research Observer
This paper provides a guide to the new World Bank Human Capital Index (HCI), situating its methodology in the context of the development accounting literature. The HCI combines indicators of health and education into a measure of the human capital that a child born today can expect to achieve by her 18th birthday, given the risks of poor education and health that prevail in the country where she lives. The HCI is measured in units of productivity relative to a benchmark of complete education and full health, and ranges from 0 to 1. A value of |x| on the HCI indicates that a child born today can expect to be only || percent as productive as a future worker as she would be if she enjoyed complete education and full health.
September 2018
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170 Reads
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102 Citations
April 2018
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160 Reads
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8 Citations
This paper develops a structural approach for modeling how respondents answer survey questions and uses it to estimate the proportion of respondents who are reticent in answering corruption questions, as well as the extent to which reticent behavior biases conventional estimates of corruption downwards. The context is a common two-step question, first inquiring whether a government official visited a business, and then asking about bribery if a visit was acknowledged. Reticence is a concern for both steps, since denying a visit side-steps the bribe question. This paper considers two alternative models of how reticence affects responses to two-step questions, with differing assumptions on how reticence affects the first question about visits. Maximum-likelihood estimates are obtained for seven countries using data on interactions with tax officials. Different models work best in different countries, but cross-country comparisons are still valid because both models use the same structural parameters. On average 40% of corruption questions are answered reticently, with much variation across countries. A statistic reflecting how much standard measures underestimate the proportion of all respondents who had a bribe interaction is developed. The downward bias in standard measures is highly statistically significant in all countries, varying from 12% in Nigeria to 90% in Turkey. The source of bias varies widely across countries, between denying a visit and denying a bribe after admitting a visit.
Citations (80)
... This flagrant contempt for the aspirations of the populace could lead to social upheaval and disorder, which would endanger the stability of the country. According to Kaufmann and Kraay (2023), development cannot occur without effective government. It is unfortunate that the government's indifference to the opinions of the people and its disrespect for their rights frequently undermine Nigeria's democratic system, which is based on the ideas of fundamental human rights and civil liberties. ...
- Citing Book
November 2024
... Improving transparency helps governments build trust with citizens and attracts more foreign investment, as investors view transparency and good governance as essential elements for investing in developing countries (Kaufmann et al., 2009). Therefore, using information technology to improve transparency and reduce corruption is vital to promoting economic stability and growth. ...
- Citing Book
July 2009
... Our knowledge about cross-national differences in corruption often rely on public opinion surveys that measure both perceived and experienced corruption (Heath et al. 2016, Karalashvili, Kraay andMurrell 2015). These measures of corruption have proved to be informative and continue to drive analyses of causes and consequences of corruption (Povitkina and Wysmułek 2017). ...
- Citing Book
July 2015
... Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) index: following Kraay, Kaufmann, and Mastruzzi (2010) and Pinkowitz et al. (2016), we also control for the average of six corporate governance indices from the World Bank. The World Bank's WGI index provides (Graham and Leary 2018;Deloof et al. 2020;Chang et al. 2024;Das et al. 2024). ...
- Citing Book
September 2010
... However, relatively few of them have recorded a significant decrease in poverty, inequality, and unemployment. (voir Dollar et Kraay 2002 ;Dollar et al. 2013). It is therefore relevant for policymakers and academics to assess whether the underlying "quality" of growth has been good and whether it has fundamentally favored the poor. ...
- Citing Book
August 2013
... Country level covariates. We averaged six indicators of broad dimensions of national governance from the World Bank into a composite indicator for each country and used as a country-level covariate: (1) voice and accountability, (2) rule of law, (3) control and corruption, (4) political stability, (5) government effectiveness, and (6) regulatory quality [78]. Descriptions of each governance indicator, and more information on how the composite indicator was determined, can be found in the supplementary information (S1 File). ...
- Citing Book
August 2007
... Not surprisingly perhaps, in economics, poverty traps have tended to be defined econometrically, and somewhat circularly, as income tomorrow (meaning in the future) being stuck at income today, that is, as nil income mobility (Kraay & McKenzie, 2014). Under this econometrically self-contained definition, as Kraay and McKenzie (bid) have noted, trap zones as depicted in Fig. 6.2 (flat left tail) have been relatively elusive to research evidence. ...
Reference:
Living Wage
- Citing Book
April 2014
... For example, Kaufmann, Kraay, and Zoido-Lobatón (1999) defined governance as "the traditions and institutions by which the authority in a country is exercised". Kaufmann and Kraay (2007) use the terms "governance", "institutions", and "institutional quality" interchangeably throughout their paper. On the other hand, some believe that this is the correct way to approach them (Alonso and Garcimartín 2018;Dobrowolska, Dorożyński, and Kuna-Marszałek 2021;, and "governance indicators can be based on criteria related to institutional quality, adapting them to the different functions of the state" (Alonso and Garcimartín 2018). ...
- Citing Book
November 2007
... Its focus has been to identify, isolate, replicate and test "good governance" or "best practices" in different global settings (Andrews et al. 2013). However, the poor track record of such governance reforms has been noted in a wide range of applications, such as natural resource management (Samad 2002, Shivakoti and Ostrom 2002, Venot and Suhardiman 2014, climate change adaptation (Nightingale 2017, Eriksen et al. 2021, and public administration (Denizer et al. 2011, Van Assche et al. 2012, Andrews et al. 2013. Recent meta-reviews (Mukherji et al. 2010) have shown that this dismal record cannot simply be attributed to inadequate implementation or lack of enabling conditions, as previously thought (Garces-Restrepo et al. 2007). ...
- Citing Book
May 2011
... Specifically, to address potential endogeneity issues arising from, for example, measurement errors in investment data or the possibility that public investment responds to changes in private investment, we identify government investment shocks by using predicted loan disbursements from official loans as an instrument for public investment. This identification strategy follows Kraay (2014) and Eden and Kraay (2014), who used exogenous variations in predicted loan disbursements to identify overall government spending and public investment spending shocks, respectively. To uncover the parameter of interest, our empirical strategy is implemented using the local projections method (LPM)á la Jordà (2005). 2 ...
- Citing Book
February 2014