Aaditya Mattoo’s research while affiliated with World Bank and other places

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Publications (266)


Is US trade policy reshaping global supply chains?
  • Article

October 2024

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14 Reads

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15 Citations

Journal of International Economics

Caroline Freund

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Aaditya Mattoo

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Alen Mulabdic

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Michele Ruta




The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade A Preliminary Assessment
  • Article
  • Full-text available

November 2023

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99 Reads

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178 Citations

The virus that triggered a localized shock in China is now delivering a significant global shock. This study simulates the potential impact of COVID-19 on gross domestic product and trade, using a standard global computable general equilibrium model. It models the shock as underutilization of labor and capital, an increase in international trade costs, a drop in travel services, and a redirection of demand away from activities that require proximity between people. A baseline global pandemic scenario sees gross domestic product fall by 2 percent below the benchmark for the world, 2.5 percent for developing countries, and 1.8 percent for industrial countries. The declines are nearly 4 percent below the benchmark for the world, in an amplified pandemic scenario in which containment is assumed to take longer and which now seems more likely. The biggest negative shock is recorded in the output of domestic services affected by the pandemic, as well as in traded tourist services. Since the model does not capture fully the social isolation induced independent contraction in demand and the decline in investor confidence, the eventual economic impact may be different. This exercise is illustrative, because it is still too early to make an informed assessment of the full impact of the pandemic. But it does convey the likely extent of impending global economic pain, especially for developing countries and their potential need for assistance.

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Sub‐Saharan Africa's participation in global value chains: 1995–2021

October 2023

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41 Reads

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3 Citations

World Economy

This paper examines Sub‐Saharan Africa's (SSA) role in global value chains (GVCs) through a new comprehensive country‐sector level database. It reaffirms known aspects: SSA's involvement in GVCs has grown but still trails other regions, especially in manufacturing. Typically, SSA is involved in upstream production stages, exporting commodities that are later processed and re‐exported by other countries. Only few SSA countries have integrated into manufacturing GVCs, importing inputs for export production. SSA also engages more in GVCs with external partners than with other SSA countries. Yet, new insights also emerge. SSA increasingly provides inputs for its own export products, though not for domestic sales. Additionally, African GVCs are shifting alliances; China and India are rising as sources for supply of inputs and final demand, overtaking Europe. However, the United States and Europe remain pivotal final destinations for African goods and re‐export hubs of African value added.



Are trade preferences a Panacea? The export impact of the African growth and Opportunity Act

February 2023

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8 Reads

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9 Citations

World Development

Does “infant industry” preferential access durably boost exports? Using country-product-year data for 1992–2017 and triple-differences regressions, we show that the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) enhanced apparel exports of African countries on average. But the impact leveled off after the Multi-Fiber Arrangement unleashed competition from Asian countries. Furthermore, the positive average impact masks regional heterogeneity: East Africa’s late-bloomers offset Southern Africa’s boom-bust pattern. Overall, we find little evidence that preferences durably boosted exports.


Figure 4: Tariffs in PTAs and MFN tariffs
Figure 5: Number of agreements over time vs average coverage ratio
Figure 6: Coverage ratios by policy area, over time
Figure 7: Substantive provisions and a breakdown of non-substantive provisions in PTAs, over time
Figure 11: Similarity of agreements

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Article 3 - The Evolution of Deep Trade Agreements

December 2022

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48 Reads

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6 Citations

Perspectivas - Journal of Political Science

This paper takes a first look at new data on the content of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). The data contain detailed information on the eighteen policy areas most frequently covered in PTAs, focusing on the stated objectives, substantive commitments, and other aspects such as transparency, procedures and enforcement. A number of new stylized facts emerge: (i) PTAs have reduced trade-weighted average tariff rates to less than 5 percent for more than two-thirds of countries; (ii) the number of commitments in PTAs has increased over time, particularly since the 2000s and in areas aiming at facilitating flows of services, goods and capital; (iii) deepening commitments have been accompanied by an increase in regulatory requirements, namely on enforcement; (iv) developing countries tend to have fewer commitments in PTAs, with larger gaps in areas such as labor and environment; (v) PTAs are more similar within blocs, but similarity can be significant even across blocs. The paper also discusses the challenges of quantification of PTA “depth” and its effects and proposes a research agenda for future work on trade agreements.


Citations (71)


... Fernandes, et al. [41] demonstrate the significance of factor endowments, geographical location, politic al stability, open trade policies, foreign direct investment, and the strength of domestic industrial capacity in influencing participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs). Dollar and Kidder [42] reveal that the quality of institutions affects comparative advantage, which in turn influences participation in GVCs. Ge, et al. [43] highlight that insufficient institutions pose a significant obstacle to the development of Global Value Chains (GVCs) and regional integration in the countries associated with the "One Belt and One Road" (OBOR) initiative. ...

Reference:

Factors influencing the participation of Vietnamese enterprises in global value chains: Insights from the manufacturing and processing sectors
Global Value Chain Development Report 2017: Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of GVCs on Economic Development
David Dollar

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Jose Guilherme Reis

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[...]

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Annalisa Primi

... Reshoring, too, remains particularly rare. The US Reshoring initiative reports 1,379 reshoring cases all over the US in 2018. 1 Freund et al. (2024) find limited evidence of reshoring in their analysis of the impact of US tariffs on imports from China. Survey-based efforts to measure this phenomenon in Europe tend to be biased toward large firms and report around 10-15 reshoring events per year-country (Dachs et al., 2019). ...

Is US trade policy reshaping global supply chains?
  • Citing Article
  • October 2024

Journal of International Economics

... Countries worldwide have been increasingly signing different types of PTAs, which have also become increasingly complex and deep in their content (Kohl et al., 2016;Hofmann et al., 2019;Mattoo et al., 2020). 1 These deep PTAs cover not just trade but also provisions on additional policy areas such as IPRs protection, competition policy, trade-related investment measures, public procurement, e-commerce, service liberalization, the environment, or investment and labor flows. These trade-related issues aim at deepening integration beyond trade, and IPRs are one of the most common policy areas covered by deep PTAs (Mattoo et al., 2020). ...

Overview: The Evolution of Deep Trade Agreements
  • Citing Chapter
  • October 2020

... Recent attempts involving the construction of STRIs include projects by the OECD (OECD 2009 andGrosso et al. 2015) and the World Bank (Borchert, Gootiiz, and Mattoo 2012). The STRIs derived by the OECD are only for OECD economies, while the World Bank covers 79 developing and transition economies, and 24 OECD economies. ...

Policy Barriers to International Trade in Services: Evidence from a New Database
  • Citing Book
  • June 2012

... Governments can also foster international trade in health services. They can make it easier for people to purchase health services in countries where costs are lower, known as "medical tourism" (Mattoo and Subramanian 2013), such as by reducing policy constraints on the portability of health insurance (Mattoo and Rathindran 2006). ...

Criss-Crossing Migration
  • Citing Book
  • July 2013

... This work draws on two strands of literature in industrial policy. The first has concerned itself with documenting the recent increase in industrial policy (Evenett et al., 2024;Rotunno & Ruta, 2023;Juhász et al., 2024Juhász et al., , 2023 and analyzing its effects on trade (Rotunno & Ruta, 2023Barattieri et al., 2024). The second is a structural analysis of the propagation of policy through a production networks (Liu, 2019;Liu & Tsyvinski, 2024). ...

Trade Effects of Industrial Policies: Are Preferential Agreements a Shield?
  • Citing Book
  • June 2024

... Such measures have contributed to recession and relentless falls in foreign trade volumes in various heavily affected industries, including travel and tourism industries. Furthermore, according to a study by Maliszewska, Mattoo and Van Der Mensbrugghe (2020), major economic systems have lost considerable proportions of their gross domestic product (GDP), up to 3.9%, while developing countries have been hit the hardest (4% on average, but some of them had over 6.5%). Relying on different policies, such as trade de-liberalism and increasing restrictions to free capital and trade flows, is considered as essential strategy to provide economic growth recovery (Rasoulinezhad et al., 2021). ...

The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade A Preliminary Assessment

... The number of announced greenfield FDI projects in Russia collapsed from 157 in 2021 to just 21 in 2023, and the sources of this investment shifted dramatically. In 2021, 59% of announced greenfield FDI projects in Russia were from 18 Product-level analysis of shifts of U.S. imports away from China highlights the effects of tariffs (Freund et al., 2023) and the feasibility/economic attractiveness of shifting to alternative locations [see pp. 52-58 of Altman and Bastian (2024)]. ...

Is US Trade Policy Reshaping Global Supply Chains ?
  • Citing Book
  • November 2023

... All measures reported here are from the EORA26 data set that includes 46 African countries over 1990-2022, covering 26 sectors (3 commodities, 8 manufacturing, 15 Services). Mancini et al. (2023) use the same measures on the EORA26 data set. ...

Sub‐Saharan Africa's participation in global value chains: 1995–2021
  • Citing Article
  • October 2023

World Economy

... However, it is reasonable to expect that some provisions included in DTAs might have a negative effect on trade flows between members. Some of the new policy areas covered by DTAs aim to improve various non-trade objectives (NTOs) such as labour and environmental standards (these two policy areas are covered by around 20% of all PTAs, Mattoo et al., 2020). In this case, recent DTAs that include trade-restrictive environmental provisions might allow countries to promote "green protectionism" and therefore reduce international trade (Brandi and Morin, 2023). ...

Article 3 - The Evolution of Deep Trade Agreements

Perspectivas - Journal of Political Science