A.A. Tashilova’s research while affiliated with The Mountain Institute and other places

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Publications (35)


Fig. 2. Changes of Elbrus glaciers for 1957-2015: 1 -contours of glaciers in 2014-2015 and their numbers, 2-melted areas of glaciers for 1957-2015, 3 -ice free areas inside glacier contours, 4 -snow line of 09.08.1999, 5 -the snow line of 23.08.2015. Numbers of glaciers: 1 -Ulluchiran, 2 -Karachaul, 3 -Ullukol, 4 -Ullumaliyenderku, 5 -No. 4 [9], 6 -Mikelchiran, 7 -Birdzhalychiran, 8 -Chungurchatchiran, 9 -Irikchat, 10 -Irik, 11 -No. 25 [9], 12 -Terskol, 13 -Garabashi, 14 -Maly Azau, 15 -Bolshoy Azau, 16 -Azau Zapadny, 17 -Hotyu-Tau, 18 -No. 311 [10], 19 -No. 312 [10], 20 -Ullukam, 21 -No. 316 [10], 22 -No. 317 [10], 23 -Kyukyurtlyu, 24 -No. 319 [10], 25 -Bityuktyube (left), 26 -Bityuktyube (right), 27 -Ulluchiran (western).
Fig. 3. Reduction of the Dzhikiugankez glacier (Chungurchatchiran and Birdzhalychiran)
TEMPERATURE CONDITION AND ANOMALIES FOR 1961-2017, TERSKOL
Influence of Temperature Changes in Lower Atmosphere on Dynamics of Glaciers and Height of Snow Line on Elbrus
  • Conference Paper
  • Full-text available

January 2018

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20 Reads

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Kh.M. Kalov

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M.Yu. Bekkiyev

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[...]

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T.L. Shugunov
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Trends in precipitation parameters in the climate zones of southern Russia (1961–2011)

March 2017

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21 Reads

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15 Citations

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

The data of 19 weather stations for 1961-2011 on total and maximum daily precipitation for the plain (<500 m above the sea level), foothill (500-1000 m), and mountain (1000-2000 m) zones of the south of European Russia are used for analyzing the precipitation regime, investigating its trends, revealing the extremes, and making conclusions on zonal seasonal and annual variations in precipitation.



Analysis of temperature variability in the mountain regions of the North Caucasus in 1961–2013

September 2016

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16 Reads

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5 Citations

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

Annual and seasonal series of temperature values are analyzed using the data of Akhty, Teberda, and Terskol weather stations (the height above the sea level is >1000 m) for 1961-2013 as well as from 1976 to 2013 in order to reveal changes in the mountain climate in the period of contemporary global warming. Mean values, standard deviations, norms, and anomalies of annual and seasonal values of temperature as well as the rate of their variation in the mentioned periods are obtained. It is found that the temperature rise is observed in all seasons and for the year as a whole at the mountain weather stations except Terskol station. According to the results of studying temperature variability, Akhty and Teberda weather stations were united into the group “mountain weather stations” with the subsequent averaging of climatic variables. Terskol weather station was singled out as an independent high-mountain weather station.


Citations (11)


... Как известно, модели временных рядов применяются в исследованиях динамики значительного числа реальных процессов различной природы. В статье [6] были определены некоторые количественные характеристики рядов селевых сходов, средней температуры и сумм осадков в высокогорной зоне КБР, построены линейные тренды, характеризующие долговременную изменчивость исследуемых рядов в теплые сезоны 1953-2015 гг. Под долговременной изменчивостью понимается вклад в процесс изменения параметров ряда либо тренда, либо долговременного колебания, то есть колебания с периодом, гораздо больше одного года. ...

Reference:

Sinusoidal regression model for assessment of mudflows dynamics
Analysis of the dynamics of mudflows amid climate changes in the high mountain zone of Kabardino-Balkaria
  • Citing Article
  • January 2024

Nauka Innovatsii Tekhnologii

... Исходя из совокупного анализа осадков и испарения [3,20,21] с водосбора в последние десятилетия, можно сделать вывод, что эти основные элементы водного баланса на водосборе не являются статистически значимыми и не могли привести к существенным изменениям стока как относительно его сезонных величин, так и годовых. ...

CHANGES IN REGIONAL PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING
  • Citing Article
  • January 2021

Nauka Innovatsii Tekhnologii

... Например, для определения сезонности и циклов временного ряда температур проводят спектральный и автокорреляционный анализ [3,15,20]. Также исследователи используют сингулярно-спектральный анализ -это позволило провести анализ и прогноз рядов летних температур юга европейской территории России (ЕТР) [14,19]. Использование данных методов подтверждает проблему глобального потепления, на их основе также строят прогностические модели [1,13,16]. ...

THE SUMMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THE METHOD OF SINGULAR-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS IN THE SOUTH OF RUSSIA IN 2019-2023
  • Citing Article
  • January 2020

Nauka Innovatsii Tekhnologii

... Очевидно, что решение этих проблем требует проведения исследований изменений климата и их последствий для различных сфер деятельности, формулировки задач адаптации отраслей экономики к из- УСПЕХИ СОВРЕМЕННОГО ЕСТЕСТВОЗНАНИЯ № 9, 2022   ФИЗИКО-МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ (25.00.30)  менениям климата и разработки методов их решения, разработки методов снижения рисков, связанных с экстремальными погодными явлениями и т.д. [12][13][14]. ...

Analysis of Changes in the Natural and Climatic Conditions of the Functioning of the Construction Industry (Operation of Buildings and Structures) in the Region

... Очевидно, что решение этих проблем требует проведения исследований изменений климата и их последствий для различных сфер деятельности, формулировки задач адаптации отраслей экономики к из- УСПЕХИ СОВРЕМЕННОГО ЕСТЕСТВОЗНАНИЯ № 9, 2022   ФИЗИКО-МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ (25.00.30)  менениям климата и разработки методов их решения, разработки методов снижения рисков, связанных с экстремальными погодными явлениями и т.д. [12][13][14]. ...

Modeling Risk Reduction in Agriculture Associated with Dangerous Agrometeorological Phenomena

KnE Life Sciences

... Малая ГЭС -гидроэлектростанция, вырабатывающая сравнительно малое количество электроэнергии и основано на гидроэнергетических установках мощностью от 1 до 3000 кВт. Одно из главных преимуществ малых гидроэлектростанций -это нанесение экологии гораздо меньшего вреда, чем большими ГЭС [1][2][3][4]. Для того, чтобы определить степень негативного воздействия на окружающую среду в период строительства для Усть-Джегутинской Малой ГЭС была проведена инвентаризация источников выбросов загрязняющих веществ в атмосферу и проведен расчет их рассеяния [5,6]. ...

Results of carrying out engineering and environmental surveys at design of small hydroelectric power station

E3S Web of Conferences

... Spatially, there was no clear pattern in changes in extreme precipitation indicators across seasons in 1960-2022. In winter, the maximum increase in indicators was observed on the coast of the Caspian Sea, where SDII, Rx1day and Rx5day increased by 0.23 mm/day per decade (Makhachkala), Ashabokov et al. (2018) also demonstrated an increase in annual precipitation in the high-altitude and foothill regions of the North Caucasus from 1961 to 2015, increased at a rate from 1.99 to 21.12 mm/decade. They also reported that this increase occurred mainly due to an increase in precipitation in spring, autumn and, partly, in the winter season (Ashabokov et al. 2018), which is also consistent with the results of our study. ...

Changes of temperature and precipitation regimes in the south of European Russia in 1961 - 2015

MAUSAM

... All these challenges are also characteristic of the mountainous regions of the Caucasus. Over the past 30-40 years, the Caucasus has seen an increase in annual and seasonal temperatures, especially in summer, by an average of 0.5-0.7°C, a drier climate, and a growing frequency and intensity of meteorological extremes (Assessment 2022; Kozachek et al. 2017;Shvarev et al. 2021;Tashilova et al. 2019). Rapid glacier retreat (Solomina et al. 2024;Tielidze et al. 2022;Toropov et al. 2019) has cut off a lot of water in places where it is already scarce, such as the South Caucasus and the eastern flank of the North Caucasus. ...

Analysis of Climate Change in the Caucasus Region: End of the 20th–Beginning of the 21st Century

Climate

... Reference [45] describes that in all climatic zones of the region, changes in mean annual temperatures, unlike precipitation, were synchronous in time (Figure 2). In addition to the main climate-forming factors (radiation and circulation), climate of the Caucasus region is greatly influenced by the relief of the terrain, the orography of the terrain, and the distance of weather stations from each other. ...

CLIMATIC CHANGES OF MEAN AND EXTREME VALUES OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTH OF EUROPEAN RUSSIA
  • Citing Article
  • January 2017

Fundamental and Applied Climatology

... However, climate change, manifested in an increase in humidification deficiency, may slow down this development (Lukyanets and Bragin 2021). Despite an overall positive dinamics in annual precipitation across the southern regions of Russia, the increase in precipitation is highly uneven throughout the area (Ashabokov et al. 2017;Vyshkvarkova 2021). As a result, specific regions within the South, such as, for example, the eastern part of the Rostov region and the Republic of Kalmykia, have experienced humid warming alongside heightened precipitation in certain time frames (Shumova 2020;Gudko et al. 2023). ...

Trends in precipitation parameters in the climate zones of southern Russia (1961–2011)
  • Citing Article
  • March 2017

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology