A.A. Tashilova’s research while affiliated with The Mountain Institute and other places

The object of the study is the North Caucasus region, rich in varied natural landscapes and characterized by climatic diversity. The study aims to analyze changes in the temperature and precipitation regimes in the foothill zone of the region. According to the data of 6 weather stations: Buynaksk, Vladikavkaz, Kislovodsk, Nalchik, Stavropol, and Cherkessk, we carried out an analysis of the temperature regime for the period 1961–2022, which showed that the average annual temperatures in the foothill zone of the North Caucasus in this period were positive and fluctuated from 8.3°С at the Kislovodsk weather station to 10.6°С at the Buynaksk weather station. At the beginning of the 21st century (2001–2022), the average annual air temperature increased and amounted to 9.2°С at the Kislovodsk weather station and 11.6°С at the Buynaksk weather station, which is statistically significantly higher than in the period 1961–2000, when the average annual temperature was 7.8°C and 10.0°C, respectively. Average annual temperature anomalies were calculated for the entire observation period. The largest deviation from the norm was recorded in 2010, due to the high anomaly in summer (+3.7°C). To assess the trend in the temperature regime changes, linear trends were constructed for the entire period of 1961–2022 and two sub-periods. The analysis showed that in the period 1961–2022, exclusively positive trends were observed, while in the sub-periods, negative trends in temperature change were also evident, where March was especially prominent, with negative values of the linear trend at all the stations in the foothill zone at the beginning of the present century. An analysis of seasonal and annual precipitation for the period 1961–2022 showed that, on average, in the foothill zone of the North Caucasus region, the long-term annual precipitation amounted to 637 mm. The calculation of linear trends in annual precipitation totals showed that the change in the precipitation regime was not uniform, there were both positive and negative trends, mostly statistically insignificant.

The object of the study is a dangerous slope phenomenon (mudflow) in the mountains of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (KBR) against the background of changing climatic conditions of the warm season (May-September). The paper presents the results of statistical, frequency and regression analysis of the dynamics of the number of mudflows, precipitation amounts, and average temperatures in the high-mountain zone of the KBR in the period 1953–2015. Statistical analysis of time series was carried out using the SPSS 20.0 software package. Linear trends were generated using Excel built-in LINEST worksheet function. The efficiency (coefficient of determination R2 ) and quality of regression models in general and by parameters were assessed using the Fisher test (F) and their significance (Sig.). The t-test was used to identify statistical equality or inequality of means between two periods. It was found that in the period 1953–2015 there was a slight increase in precipitation and average temperature. When analyzing the statistics of series in two periods 1953–1984 and 1984–2015, it was found that the average and total characteristics of the number of mudflows, precipitation and temperatures increase in the second period. Frequency analysis showed that out of 499 cases of mudflows over 63 years, 32% occurred in 9 cases per season (May-September). Frequency analysis confirmed the homogeneity of the distribution of precipitation amounts: in almost 60% of cases, the precipitation amount varies in a narrow range from 92.7 mm to 104.1 mm. For a number of temperatures, the most common (37%) was the average temperature of the warm season t = 10.2 °C; 31% corresponded to the temperature range from 10.7 °C to 11.8 °C. The analysis allows us to talk about an increase in the frequency of dangerous slope phenomena against the background of modern climate change, including in the high mountains.

A sinusoidal model of the dynamics of mudflow series, temperature and precipitation in the warm seasons in the high-mountain zone of Kabardino-Balkaria complements the previously obtained statisti­cal analysis of the average characteristics of the series, results of a comparative analysis of their average values for two subperiods (base 1953-1983 and modern 1984-2015), improves the quality of the unidirectional regression model of the number of mudflows and meteorological parameters over the past 60 years. The article shows that the use of the sinusoidal regression function makes it possible to identify the cyclicity of time series, which will help in assessing the dynamics of mudflows taking into account long-term changes in climate variables. The increased efficiency of the models is confirmed by the criteria. The coefficient of determination R2, determined for lin­ear regression models, increases in sinusoidal regression models: for series with the number of mudflows from R2 = 0.067 to R2 = 0.645, for precipitation from R2 = 0.028 to R2 = 0.653, for temperatures from R2 = 0.012 to R2 = 0.829. In the sinusoidal regression model, using eight harmonics, short-period ripples are added against the back­ground of slow changes. In the series with mudflows, these are short periods from T = 2.4 years to T = 10.7 years against the background of the main period T = 62 years. In the series of temperatures there are short periods from T = 1.9 years to T = 5.2 years to a long period T = 63 years. In the series with precipitation, a long period T = 20.1 years is added to the short periods from T = 2.2 years to T = 8.7 years. The identified long-period fluctuations in mudflows and temperatures (T = 62 years, 63 years) are associated with significant and nonlin­ear changes in the elements of these series during the period under study. In contrast to these series, the precipitation series is dominated by short-period changes (T = 4 years) against a background of slow fluctuations with a period of T = 20.1 years.

The increase in mean and extreme temperatures against the background of almost unchanged precipitation in the south of the European territory of Russia (ETR) leads to a number of changes affecting agricultural production. The combination of such unfavorable environmental factors as high temperature and water shortage can have a relatively short-term, but strong impact on the crop industry with long-term consequences. It is expected that, taking into account current trends in climate change, the foothill and plane zones in the south of the ETR will be in an arid zone. Thus water scarcity has been and remains a critical factor in determining crop production in the region. The paper discusses the mechanisms of the impact of climate change on agriculture. It is noted that the relevance of developing effective and cost-effective for practical use methods to reduce risks in this industry associated with extreme weather events, including droughts, is increasing and becoming an essential condition for ensuring the country's food security. The features of information support of the problem of developing models for reducing risks associated with droughts are noted. A method for reducing agricultural losses associated with this weather event is outlined. It is based on exploiting the different vulnerabilities of crops by hazardous weather events. The possibilities of practical use of the method under conditions of climate change are touched upon, and the main tasks arising along this path are discussed. The results of model calculations, which were carried out in order to study the effectiveness of the method, are presented. It is noted that, on the basis of the proposed approach, flexible and quickly responding to changes in the conditions for the functioning of agriculture, systems can be created to reduce the loss of agriculture from adverse weather events.

The problems of adaptation of the regional agricultural production to climate change are discussed. It is noted that for this level it is more appropriate to consider the problem for the agroindustrial complex as a whole, i. e., for the “agriculture-processing industry” system. The formulations of the goals and tasks of the adaptation of the mentioned system to climate change are given, the concept of the adaptation interval is introduced. The methods and results of solving the problems of formation and coordination of target indicators of the agroindustrial complex and determination of the trajectory of its development in the adaptation interval are described.

Ключевыми проблемами обеспечения условий развития общества в настоящее времястановятся адаптация различных сфер деятельности к изменению климата и снижениерисков, связанных с опасными погодными явлениями. В статье обсуждаются возможныеподходы к снижению рисков в сельском хозяйстве, связанных с градобитиями, затронутыособенности их информационного обеспечения. Предложены один метод решения даннойзадачи и модель для его реализации, разработанная в рамках теории принятия решений. Ме-тод решения задачи отнесен нами к "пассивным" методам, которые не предполагают вме-шательства в процессы формирования градовых осадков в облаках. В качестве механизмаснижения рисков в предложенном методе используется тот факт, что уязвимость сельско-хозяйственных культур градом различна для различных культур. Соответственно, управле-ние рисками осуществляется путем подбора структуры производства сельскохозяйствен-ных культур с учетом особенностей их уязвимости данным погодным явлением, а такжеусловиями, наложенными на объемы производства сельскохозяйственной продукции. В ста-тье обсуждаются основные задачи, возникающие на пути практического использования дан-ного метода. Для анализа эффективности метода для производственно-экономических усло-вий степной климатической зоны Кабардино-Балкарской республики проведены модельныерасчеты. При этом для определения возможных состояний градовых процессов была исполь-зована частота выпадения града (число дней с градом на рассматриваемой территории загод). Пользуясь временным рядом данного показателя за период 1958-2018 гг., частота выпа-дения града в рассматриваемой климатической зоне была представлена в виде дискретнойслучайной величины с известным законом распределения. Это дало возможность рассматри-вать задачу снижения потерь сельского хозяйства как задачу принятия решений в условияхриска. Результаты модельных расчетов показали высокую эффективность метода для сни-жения потерь сельского хозяйства от градобитий. Важным достоинством метода являет-ся то, что практическое его использование будет связано с незначительными затратами.

It is noted that the peculiarity of the current stage of society development is that it is under the influence of such a global factor as global climate change, which poses a threat not only to the development, but also to the existence of society. The possible consequences of this factor for the development of society are noted. It is proposed to consider the problem of confronting the effects of climate change as a problem of creating a hierarchical life support system. The algorithms for creating such systems are discussed, and it is noted that they should be based on the use of strategies for the development of systems of different levels (federal, regional and sectoral). The elements of systems of different hierarchical levels are defined. It is noted that when creating such systems it is important to take into account the interaction of elements of different levels, as well as its optimisation.

Introduction. The article analyzes the changes in moisture content of the soil in the south of the European territory of Russia (ETR) associated with climate warming. It is shown that both in the foothill and steppe climatic zones there is a tendency to decrease this parameter, which greatly increases the relevance of developing methods to reduce risks in agriculture associated with droughts. A model based on different vulnerability of agricultural crops to this dangerous weather phenomenon is presented, the results of model calculations for the conditions of the steppe zone of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (KBR) are presented. Materials and research methods. When conducting research, the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient was used as an indicator characterizing the moisture content of the soil. The values of this coefficient were calculated using data from 13 weather stations on the amount of precipitation and air temperature for 1961-2018. The development of a risk reduction model in this paper is considered within the framework of decision theory. As a target in the problem, you can use a function that describes the gain or loss of agriculture. Using this method of choosing an action to reduce risks avoids the formation of a set of actions from which it is necessary to choose the most appropriate one. Research results and their discussion. The results of the calculations carried out in the work showed that the consequence of climate change in the south of the EPR will be a significant deterioration in the conditions for the production of agricultural products. The consequences of such a trend will be extremely negative for agricultural production in the area. As a result of solving the problem, it is possible to determine the optimal structure of crop production from the point of view of the criterion used, taking into account the probability of droughts. As such a criterion, the maximum expected volume of crop production was used, taking into account the impact of droughts. Conclusions. A method has been proposed to reduce the losses of agriculture from droughts, taking into account their different vulnerability to various crops. The model was written in the framework of linear programming, which makes it possible to determine the optimal structure of agricultural production in terms of the criterion used. The method can be used in regions with different production and economic conditions.

The results of an analysis of changes in the conditions of agricultural crop production in the flat zone of the south of the ETR are presented. For this purpose, the results of calculations of the hydrothermal moisture coefficient of Selyaninov in the interval 1961-2022 were used. It has been shown that there is a steady decrease in the moisture coefficient. The problems of reducing agricultural losses associated with deteriorating soil moisture availability are discussed. One approach to solving this problem is to adapt agricultural production to climate change. It is noted that at the regional level it is more appropriate to consider the problem of adaptation for the agro-industrial complex as a whole. The formulation of adaptation goals and objectives of the adaptation plan for the specified sector of the economy to climate change is provided.

This article is devoted to the analysis of changes in the air temperature and precipitation regimes in various climatic zones of the North Caucasus region. Time series of seasonal and annual temperatures in the surface layer of the atmosphere and precipitation for the period 1976–2019 were used to study climate change. It was found that in all climatic zones of the North Caucasus region there was a significant increasing in average annual and seasonal temperatures, especially during the summer season. The change in precipitation regime is not as obvious as the change in temperature. In all climatic zones, both an increase and a decrease in seasonal precipitation, mostly statistically insignificant, were observed. The trend resistance of meteorological parameters was assessed using the normalized range method and its quantitative indicator—the Hurst index. The Hurst index, calculated for the average seasonal temperatures and sum of precipitation, showed a high probability of persistence of the trends, especially for summer temperatures and autumn sum precipitation.KeywordsNorth CaucasusClimate changeAir temperaturePrecipitation