A. B. Ashabokov’s scientific contributions

An analysis of changes in the conditions for the production of agricultural crops in the foothill and lowland climatic zones of the North Caucasus was carried out. For this purpose, the values of the hydrothermal moisture coefficient of Selyaninov were determined for the period of time 1961-2022. It is shown that throughout the entire territory of this region, which plays a significant role in ensuring the country’s food security, there is a decrease in the values of the moisture coefficient. According to the results of the analysis, this trend is due to a decrease in moisture content in the soil due to rising temperatures (the amount of precipitation remains virtually unchanged). Some approaches to reducing agricultural losses from these factors are discussed. One method for reducing agricultural losses from droughts is outlined. It is based on the fact that vulnerability to this natural phenomenon is different for different crops. The results of model calculations carried out to analyze the effectiveness of the method are presented.

The work is devoted to the problems of reducing risks in tourist and recreational areas of mountainous areas associated with climate change. The main factors through which this global factor can influence this area of activity are discussed. Such slope processes as snow avalanches and mudflows are considered as such factors in mountainous areas. It is noted that the reduction of risks in the tourist and recreational zones of mountainous areas associated with climate change requires adaptation of the functioning of these zones to climate change. In this case, it is considered appropriate to consider this problem for two cases. In the first case, this problem is considered for a functioning tourist and recreational zone, and in the second case, for the zones being created, taking into account the consequences of climate change. The formulations of the tasks of adapting the existing tourist and recreational zones of mountainous regions to climate change are given, the features of information support and methods for solving these problems are discussed. A method for solving one of these problems is presented, namely, the development of models for reducing risks in the tourist and recreational zone associated with such a climatic factor as snow avalanches. It is noted that the features of the information support of this problem, which consist in the presence of uncertainties, make it natural to search for a solution to this problem within the framework of decision theory. The statement of this problem is given.KeywordsTourist and recreational zoneAdaptation to climate changeAvalanchesRisk reduction