June 2023
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4 Reads
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3 Citations
Studies on Russian Economic Development
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June 2023
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4 Reads
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3 Citations
Studies on Russian Economic Development
January 2022
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2 Reads
Journal of the New Economic Association
The article presents a methodological approach to assessing the cost of energy for the world economy in ambitious scenarios for reducing CO2 emissions associated with energy consumption. The approach takes into account that large-scale replacement of fossil fuels with electricity generated from renewable energy sources: a) should be accompanied by the grid development and the deployment of reserve storage capacities and hydrogen technologies; b) requires the use of mechanisms for projects payback, which are included in the final prices for electricity; c) will create the need to replace the shortfall in budget revenues from the production and consumption of hydrocarbon fuels. Forecast calculations show that the scenario of achieving zero emissions in the middle of the XXI century may turn out to be unstable, since it is characterized by increase in the cost of energy supply to the world economy by 40% compared to the current level, and the ratio of energy costs to GDP will exceed 13% in certain periods, and for some countries (including Russia) — 15%. For the global economy to remain within its solvency limits, hydrocarbons should play a decisive role in energy supply for another two decades, but the growth in energy demand can increasingly be met with the help of carbon-free solutions.
November 2018
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16 Reads
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3 Citations
Studies on Russian Economic Development
Using the input−output approach, the article examines evolving economic growth in developed and developing countries over the last 30–40 years and the structural shifts brought about by globalization. The rationale of a possible reindustrialization scenario for developed countries is substantiated. Assessment is performed of the impact that global value-added chains exert on the development of individual countries, the relationship between the level of technological development, structural shifts, and economic growth.
March 2018
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138 Reads
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27 Citations
Studies on Russian Economic Development
The article presents the calculation of multiplier effects in the modern economy of Russia. The output multipliers by different sectors of the economy have been estimated using a method based on a static input–output model. The article has analyzed the limitations and possibilities of applying a method of calculating the multiplier effects.
May 2017
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11 Reads
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18 Citations
Studies on Russian Economic Development
The article describes an updated version of RIM interindustry macroeconomic model, which can be seen as a key element of the system of complex macrostructural forecasting developed at the Institute of Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences, providing analysis and long-term forecast taking into account existing resource constraints of various kinds. The main approaches used in the development of the model, as well as the most important functional interactions in its structure, were considered.
March 2016
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11 Reads
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2 Citations
Studies on Russian Economic Development
The currently topical issues of interaction between Russia and Europe in the field of energy have been considered. It has been stated that the possibility of energy union yields more advantages to each of the parties than the possibility of conflict. Russia’s alternative energy policies in the case of aggravated trade and economic relations are presented.
July 2015
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98 Reads
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36 Citations
Studies on Russian Economic Development
The article analyzes different directions of the main macroeconomic effects of preserving the sanctions regime on the trade and economic relations of Russia and the European Union and evaluates the short-, mid- and long-term negative effects of the sanctions regime. The authors have come to the conclusion that both sides will suffer substantial losses due to the sanctions regime.
January 2015
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7 Reads
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10 Citations
Studies on Russian Economic Development
The paper considers the experience of making up an integrated Input-Output balance for Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine. Based on this, an analysis of the current state of trade and economic relations in the post-Soviet space has been carried out. Methodological approaches to the development of integrated Input-Output tables have been developed.
February 2014
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9 Reads
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3 Citations
Problems of Economic Transition
This article reviews the main factors affecting the long-term development parameters of the Russian economy and attempts to formulate alternative development scenarios for the period up to 2030.
January 2012
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25 Reads
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6 Citations
Studies on Russian Economic Development
This paper analyzes the limitations imposed by the development of the Russian economy on human resources. The contribution of productivity to economic growth in recent years is determined. The key factors affecting the productivity of labor in the Russian economy are revealed. The possible dynamics of production in high-tech sectors under the impact of restrictions on labor resources is reviewed.
... At the same time, the current opinions of industry experts suggest a significant growth in the production of aluminum and cast parts from it, with a decrease in the production of cast iron in almost equal proportion, as well as a slowdown in the growth rate of the crude steel market. One of the main reasons for such changes can be considered to be the effort to achieve carbon neutrality, since the international community is concerned about the problem of climate change and considers the possibility of radical reduction of greenhouse gas emissions as the main mechanism for its mitigation [1][2][3][4]. This, in turn, stimulates the transition to low-emission materials both at the production stage and during the life cycle. ...
June 2023
Studies on Russian Economic Development
... At the same time, import dependence was considered mainly from the point of view of possible damage due to political processes (sanctions), and the substitution of products coming from developed countries with goods of Chinese origin as a way out. Assessments of the place and prospects of Russia in the global economy have so far been formed for both global added value chains [15][16][17][18][19], and for individual regions or areas [20,21]. ...
November 2018
Studies on Russian Economic Development
... В СССР межотраслевой баланс применялся в качестве инструмента директивного планирования. В настоящее время в российской практике данные таблиц «Затраты -Выпуск» используются для оценки мультипликативных эффектов прироста выпуска в различных секторах экономики [11], для построения макроструктурных моделей развития экономики, обоснования решений в области экономической политики [12], для анализа и потроения прогнозов разных показателей функционирования российской экономики [13] для анализа структуры добавленной стоимости двустороннего экспорта между Китаем и странами Центральной и Восточной Европы [14]. Анализ межотраслевых потоков по данным таблиц «Затраты -Выпуск» использовался для выявления кластеров отраслей с высоким уровнем выброса углерода в Японии [15], для идентификации кластеров в немецких отраслях, в которых интенсивно проводятся исследования и разработки [16], для поиска промышленных кластеров в районе Пекин -Тяньцзинь -Хэбэй в Китае [17]. ...
March 2018
Studies on Russian Economic Development
... The calculations were carried out using a complex of intersectoral macrostructural models developed by the RAS Institute of Economic Forecasting[13,14]. ...
May 2017
Studies on Russian Economic Development
... World 42 is a simulation model providing the detailed energy balances for 50 countries and regions, whereby energy consumption is modelled as a combination of gross, structural, and technological factors, considering the energy intensities trajectories of various sectors and using their historical trends to estimate realistic transition pathways (Shirov et al., 2016). 42 does not support a carbon price; instead, it used the rate of change in emissions intensity of GDP up to 2030, then kept it constant post-2030, as in Fawcett et al. (2015) and Vandyck et al. (2016). ...
March 2016
Studies on Russian Economic Development
... The International Monetary Fund estimates that the shortterm impact of sanctions is 1.5 percent of GDP, while the long-term impact will be more than 9% of GDP (IMF 2015). Economists estimate the overall loss of sanctions to Russia at 8% of GDP (Shirov et al. 2015), with short-term losses of 2.4% of GDP, a third of which is due to the fall in oil prices (Gurvich and Prilepskiy 2015). Chen et al. (2023) demonstrate that energy sanctions result in economic repercussions for all involved parties. ...
July 2015
Studies on Russian Economic Development
... При этом обрабатывающая промышленность обладает низкой конкурентоспособностью [12]. На низкую конкурентоспособность отечественной обрабатывающей промышленности, как на фактор неудовлетворительной экономической динамики, указывается также в [15]. ...
February 2014
Problems of Economic Transition
... In addition, it is assumed that the technological coefficients used in forecasting are assumed to remain unchanged in comparison with the basic ones. Shirov (2015Shirov ( , 2018 notes that although the input-output methodology is one of the pinnacles of economic thought, there is a perceived scarcity of such studies in Russia. In addition, he believes that the "input-output tables" are currently the only tried and tested tool for building macrostructural models of economic development. ...
January 2015
Studies on Russian Economic Development
... Table 2 shows an example of the employment structure in Moscow (Rosstat, 2017). The reduction in the production apparatus due to insufficient investment in the economy in recent years has led to the fact that the number of physical workplaces in the overwhelming majority of industries has significantly decreased because of the gap between their input and disposal (Korovkin, Dolgova, & Korolev, 2006;Shirov, Gusev, Yantovskii, & Potapenko, 2012). ...
January 2012
Studies on Russian Economic Development