Timothy J Key

University of Oxford, Oxford, England, United Kingdom

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Publications (384)

  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background Life expectancy is increasing in Europe, yet a substantial proportion of adults still die prematurely before the age of 70 years. We sought to estimate the joint and relative contributions of tobacco smoking, hypertension, obesity, physical inactivity, alcohol and poor diet towards risk of premature death. Methods We analysed data from 264,906 European adults from the EPIC prospective cohort study, aged between 40 and 70 years at the time of recruitment. Flexible parametric survival models were used to model risk of death conditional on risk factors, and survival functions and attributable fractions (AF) for deaths prior to age 70 years were calculated based on the fitted models. Results We identified 11,930 deaths which occurred before the age of 70. The AF for premature mortality for smoking was 31 % (95 % confidence interval (CI), 31–32 %) and 14 % (95 % CI, 12–16 %) for poor diet. Important contributions were also observed for overweight and obesity measured by waist-hip ratio (10 %; 95 % CI, 8–12 %) and high blood pressure (9 %; 95 % CI, 7–11 %). AFs for physical inactivity and excessive alcohol intake were 7 % and 4 %, respectively. Collectively, the AF for all six risk factors was 57 % (95 % CI, 55–59 %), being 35 % (95 % CI, 32–37 %) among never smokers and 74 % (95 % CI, 73–75 %) among current smokers. Conclusions While smoking remains the predominant risk factor for premature death in Europe, poor diet, overweight and obesity, hypertension, physical inactivity, and excessive alcohol consumption also contribute substantially. Any attempt to minimise premature deaths will ultimately require all six factors to be addressed. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-016-0630-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
    Article · Dec 2016 · BMC Medicine
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    Naomi E. Allen · Ruth C. Travis · Paul N. Appleby · [...] · Timothy J. Key
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background Some observational studies suggest that a higher selenium status is associated with a lower risk of prostate cancer but have been generally too small to provide precise estimates of associations, particularly by disease stage and grade. Methods Collaborating investigators from 15 prospective studies provided individual-participant records (from predominantly men of white European ancestry) on blood or toenail selenium concentrations and prostate cancer risk. Odds ratios of prostate cancer by selenium concentration were estimated using multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Blood selenium was not associated with the risk of total prostate cancer (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio [OR] per 80 percentile increase = 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.83 to 1.23, based on 4527 case patients and 6021 control subjects). However, there was heterogeneity by disease aggressiveness (ie, advanced stage and/or prostate cancer death, Pheterogeneity = .01), with high blood selenium associated with a lower risk of aggressive disease (OR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.21 to 0.87) but not with nonaggressive disease. Nail selenium was inversely associated with total prostate cancer (OR = 0.29, 95% CI = 0.22 to 0.40, Ptrend < .001, based on 1970 case patients and 2086 control subjects), including both nonaggressive (OR = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.22 to 0.50) and aggressive disease (OR = 0.18, 95% CI = 0.11 to 0.31, Pheterogeneity = .08). Conclusions Nail, but not blood, selenium concentration is inversely associated with risk of total prostate cancer, possibly because nails are a more reliable marker of long-term selenium exposure. Both blood and nail selenium concentrations are associated with a reduced risk of aggressive disease, which warrants further investigation.
    Full-text Article · Nov 2016 · JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute
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    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The CDKN2A (p16) gene plays a key role in pancreatic cancer etiology. It is one of the most commonly somatically mutated genes in pancreatic cancer, rare germline mutations have been found to be associated with increased risk of developing familiar pancreatic cancer and CDKN2A promoter hyper-methylation has been suggested to play a critical role both in pancreatic cancer onset and prognosis. In addition several unrelated SNPs in the 9p21.3 region, that includes the CDNK2A, CDNK2B and the CDNK2B-AS1 genes, are associated with the development of cancer in various organs. However, association between the common genetic variability in this region and pancreatic cancer risk is not clearly understood. We sought to fill this gap in a case-control study genotyping 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 2,857 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients and 6,111 controls in the context of the Pancreatic Disease Research (PANDoRA) consortium. We found that the A allele of the rs3217992 SNP was associated with an increased pancreatic cancer risk (ORhet=1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.27, p=0.026, ORhom=1.30, 95% CI 1.12-1.51, p=0.00049). This pleiotropic variant is reported to be a mir-SNP that, by changing the binding site of one or more miRNAs, could influence the normal cell cycle progression and in turn increase PDAC risk. In conclusion, we observed a novel association in a pleiotropic region that has been found to be of key relevance in the susceptibility to various types of cancer and diabetes suggesting that the CDKN2A/B locus could represent a genetic link between diabetes and pancreatic cancer risk.
    Full-text Article · Jul 2016 · Oncotarget
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background: Industrialization has been linked to the etiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Aim: We investigated the association between air pollution exposure and IBD. Methods: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort was used to identify cases with Crohn's disease (CD) (n = 38) and ulcerative colitis (UC) (n = 104) and controls (n = 568) from Denmark, France, the Netherlands, and the UK, matched for center, gender, age, and date of recruitment. Air pollution data were obtained from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects. Residential exposure was assessed with land-use regression models for particulate matter with diameters of <10 μm (PM10), <2.5 μm (PM2.5), and between 2.5 and 10 μm (PMcoarse), soot (PM2.5 absorbance), nitrogen oxides, and two traffic indicators. Conditional logistic regression analyses were performed to calculate odds ratios (ORs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs). Results: Although air pollution was not significantly associated with CD or UC separately, the associations were mostly similar. Individuals with IBD were less likely to have higher exposure levels of PM2.5 and PM10, with ORs of 0.24 (95 % CI 0.07-0.81) per 5 μg/m(3) and 0.25 (95 % CI 0.08-0.78) per 10 μg/m(3), respectively. There was an inverse but nonsignificant association for PMcoarse. A higher nearby traffic load was positively associated with IBD [OR 1.60 (95 % CI 1.04-2.46) per 4,000,000 motor vehicles × m per day]. Other air pollutants were positively but not significantly associated with IBD. Conclusion: Exposure to air pollution was not found to be consistently associated with IBD.
    Article · Jul 2016 · Digestive Diseases and Sciences
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    Nita G. Forouhi · Fumiaki Imamura · Stephen J. Sharp · [...] · Nicholas J. Wareham
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background: Whether and how n-3 and n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) are related to type 2 diabetes (T2D) is debated. Objectively measured plasma PUFAs can help to clarify these associations. Methods and findings: Plasma phospholipid PUFAs were measured by gas chromatography among 12,132 incident T2D cases and 15,919 subcohort participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct study across eight European countries. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression and pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. We also systematically reviewed published prospective studies on circulating PUFAs and T2D risk and pooled the quantitative evidence for comparison with results from EPIC-InterAct. In EPIC-InterAct, among long-chain n-3 PUFAs, α-linolenic acid (ALA) was inversely associated with T2D (HR per standard deviation [SD] 0.93; 95% CI 0.88-0.98), but eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) were not significantly associated. Among n-6 PUFAs, linoleic acid (LA) (0.80; 95% CI 0.77-0.83) and eicosadienoic acid (EDA) (0.89; 95% CI 0.85-0.94) were inversely related, and arachidonic acid (AA) was not significantly associated, while significant positive associations were observed with γ-linolenic acid (GLA), dihomo-GLA, docosatetraenoic acid (DTA), and docosapentaenoic acid (n6-DPA), with HRs between 1.13 to 1.46 per SD. These findings from EPIC-InterAct were broadly similar to comparative findings from summary estimates from up to nine studies including between 71 to 2,499 T2D cases. Limitations included potential residual confounding and the inability to distinguish between dietary and metabolic influences on plasma phospholipid PUFAs. Conclusions: These large-scale findings suggest an important inverse association of circulating plant-origin n-3 PUFA (ALA) but no convincing association of marine-derived n3 PUFAs (EPA and DHA) with T2D. Moreover, they highlight that the most abundant n6-PUFA (LA) is inversely associated with T2D. The detection of associations with previously less well-investigated PUFAs points to the importance of considering individual fatty acids rather than focusing on fatty acid class.
    Full-text Article · Jul 2016 · PLoS Medicine
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    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI) in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre) was 0.75 (0.72–0.79) to 0.88 (0.84–0.92) for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69–0.83) to 0.84 (0.76–0.92) for CVD and 0.78 (0.73–0.83) to 0.91 (0.85–0.97) for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors.
    Full-text Article · Jul 2016 · PLoS ONE
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DGSANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l’Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), Deutsche Krebshilfe, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany); the Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); Health Research Fund (FIS), PI13/00061 to Granada, Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia (no. 6236) and Navarra, ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council and County Councils of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C570/ A16491 and C8221/A19170 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk, MR/ M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford) (United Kingdom).
    Article · Jul 2016
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Objective: There is uncertainty about the direction and magnitude of the associations between parity, breastfeeding and the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined the separate and combined associations of parity and breastfeeding practices with the incidence of CHD later in life among women in a large, pan-European cohort study. Methods: Data were used from European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD, a case-cohort study nested within the EPIC prospective study of 520,000 participants from 10 countries. Information on reproductive history was available for 14,917 women, including 5138 incident cases of CHD. Using Prentice-weighted Cox regression separately for each country followed by a random-effects meta-analysis, we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CHD, after adjustment for age, study centre and several socioeconomic and biological risk factors. Results: Compared with nulliparous women, the adjusted HR was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.01-1.41) among parous women; HRs were higher among women with more children (e.g., adjusted HR: 1.95 (95% CI: 1.19-3.20) for women with five or more children). Compared with women who did not breastfeed, the adjusted HR was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.52-0.98) among women who breastfed. For childbearing women who never breastfed, the adjusted HR was 1.58 (95% CI: 1.09-2.30) compared with nulliparous women, whereas for childbearing women who breastfed, the adjusted HR was 1.19 (95% CI: 0.99-1.43). Conclusion: Having more children was associated with a higher risk of CHD later in life, whereas breastfeeding was associated with a lower CHD risk. Women who both had children and breastfed did have a non-significantly higher risk of CHD.
    Article · Jul 2016 · European Journal of Preventive Cardiology
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    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Regulatory authorities have indicated that new drugs to treat type 2 diabetes (T2D) should not be associated with an unacceptable increase in cardiovascular risk. Human genetics may be able to guide development of antidiabetic therapies by predicting cardiovascular and other health endpoints. We therefore investigated the association of variants in six genes that encode drug targets for obesity or T2D with a range of metabolic traits in up to 11,806 individuals by targeted exome sequencing and follow-up in 39,979 individuals by targeted genotyping, with additional in silico follow-up in consortia. We used these data to first compare associations of variants in genes encoding drug targets with the effects of pharmacological manipulation of those targets in clinical trials. We then tested the association of those variants with disease outcomes, including coronary heart disease, to predict cardiovascular safety of these agents. A low-frequency missense variant (Ala316Thr; rs10305492) in the gene encoding glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP1R), the target of GLP1R agonists, was associated with lower fasting glucose and T2D risk, consistent with GLP1R agonist therapies. The minor allele was also associated with protection against heart disease, thus providing evidence that GLP1R agonists are not likely to be associated with an unacceptable increase in cardiovascular risk. Our results provide an encouraging signal that these agents may be associated with benefit, a question currently being addressed in randomized controlled trials. Genetic variants associated with metabolic traits and multiple disease outcomes can be used to validate therapeutic targets at an early stage in the drug development process.
    Full-text Article · Jun 2016
  • Timothy J Key · Gillian K Reeves
    Article · May 2016 · BMJ (online)
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background: Dairy products may be involved in the etiology of inflammatory bowel disease by modulating gut microbiota and immune responses, but data from epidemiological studies examining this relationship are limited. We investigated the association between prediagnostic intake of these foods and dietary calcium, and the subsequent development of Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Methods: In total, 401,326 participants were enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. At recruitment, consumption of total and specific dairy products (milk, yogurt, and cheese) and dietary calcium was measured using validated food frequency questionnaires. Cases developing incident CD (n = 110) or UC (n = 244) during follow-up were matched with 4 controls. Conditional logistic regression analyses were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for total energy intake and smoking. Results: Compared with the lowest quartile, the ORs for the highest quartile of total dairy products and dietary calcium intake were 0.61 (95% CI, 0.32-1.19, p trend = 0.19) and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.28-1.42, p trend = 0.23) for CD, and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.50-1.30, p trend = 0.40) and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.49-1.34, p trend = 0.60) for UC, respectively. Compared with nonconsumers, individuals consuming milk had significantly reduced odds of CD (OR 0.30, 95% CI, 0.13-0.65) and nonsignificantly reduced odds of UC (OR 0.85, 95% CI, 0.49-1.47). Conclusions: Milk consumption may be associated with a decreased risk of developing CD, although a clear dose-response relationship was not established. Further studies are warranted to confirm this possible protective effect.
    Article · Apr 2016 · Inflammatory Bowel Diseases
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    Full-text Dataset · Apr 2016
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background In Western populations, a higher level of fruit consumption has been associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease, but little is known about such associations in China, where the consumption level is low and rates of stroke are high. Methods Between 2004 and 2008, we recruited 512,891 adults, 30 to 79 years of age, from 10 diverse localities in China. During 3.2 million person-years of follow-up, 5173 deaths from cardiovascular disease, 2551 incident major coronary events (fatal or nonfatal), 14,579 ischemic strokes, and 3523 intracerebral hemorrhages were recorded among the 451,665 participants who did not have a history of cardiovascular disease or antihypertensive treatments at baseline. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios relating fresh fruit consumption to disease rates. Results Overall, 18.0% of participants reported consuming fresh fruit daily. As compared with participants who never or rarely consumed fresh fruit (the "nonconsumption" category), those who ate fresh fruit daily had lower systolic blood pressure (by 4.0 mm Hg) and blood glucose levels (by 0.5 mmol per liter [9.0 mg per deciliter]) (P<0.001 for trend for both comparisons). The adjusted hazard ratios for daily consumption versus nonconsumption were 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54 to 0.67) for cardiovascular death, and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.58 to 0.75), 0.75 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.79), and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.74), respectively, for incident major coronary events, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke. There was a strong log-linear dose-response relationship between the incidence of each outcome and the amount of fresh fruit consumed. These associations were similar across the 10 study regions and in subgroups of participants defined by baseline characteristics. Conclusions Among Chinese adults, a higher level of fruit consumption was associated with lower blood pressure and blood glucose levels and, largely independent of these and other dietary and nondietary factors, with significantly lower risks of major cardiovascular diseases. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and others.).
    Article · Apr 2016 · New England Journal of Medicine
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    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Summary Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia. Funding Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada
    Full-text Article · Apr 2016 · The Lancet
  • Alison J. Price · Ruth C. Travis · Paul N. Appleby · [...] · Naomi E. Allen
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Folate and vitamin B12 are essential for maintaining DNA integrity and may influence prostate cancer (PCa) risk, but the association with clinically relevant, advanced stage, and high-grade disease is unclear.
    Article · Apr 2016 · European Urology
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    Ruth C Travis · Paul N Appleby · Richard M Martin · [...] · Naomi E Allen
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The role of insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) in prostate cancer development is not fully understood. To investigate the association between circulating concentrations of IGFs (IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2, IGFBP-3) and prostate cancer risk, we pooled individual participant data from 17 prospective and two cross-sectional studies, including up to 10,554 prostate cancer cases and 13,618 control participants. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) for prostate cancer based on the study-specific fifth of each analyte. Overall, IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-2, and IGFBP-3 concentrations were positively associated with prostate cancer risk (Ptrend all {less than or equal to} 0.005), and IGFBP-1 was weakly inversely associated with risk (Ptrend = 0.05). However, heterogeneity between the prospective and cross-sectional studies was evident (Pheterogeneity = 0.03), unless the analyses were restricted to prospective studies (with the exception of IGF-II, Pheterogeneity = 0.02). For prospective studies, the OR for men in the highest versus the lowest fifth of each analyte was 1.29 (95% confidence interval=1.16-1.43) for IGF-I, 0.81 (0.68-0.96) for IGFBP-1, and 1.25 (1.12-1.40) for IGFBP-3. These associations did not differ significantly by time-to-diagnosis or tumor stage or grade. After mutual adjustment for each of the other analytes, only IGF-I remained associated with risk. Our collaborative study represents the largest pooled analysis of the relationship between prostate cancer risk and circulating concentrations of IGF-I, providing strong evidence that IGF-I is highly likely to be involved in prostate cancer development.
    Full-text Article · Feb 2016 · Cancer Research
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    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Objective: Observational studies show an association between ferritin and type 2 diabetes (T2D), suggesting a role of high iron stores in T2D development. However, ferritin is influenced by factors other than iron stores, which is less the case for other biomarkers of iron metabolism. We investigate associations of ferritin, transferrin saturation (TSAT), serum iron, and transferrin with T2D incidence to clarify the role of iron in the pathogenesis of T2D. Research and design methods: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-InterAct study includes 12,403 incident T2D cases and a representative subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a European cohort with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We studied the prospective association of ferritin, TSAT, serum iron, and transferrin with incident T2D in 11,052 cases and a random subcohort of 15,182 individuals and assessed whether these associations differed by subgroups of the population. Results: Higher levels of ferritin and transferrin were associated with a higher risk of T2D (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] in men and women, respectively: 1.07 [1.01-1.12] and 1.12 [1.05-1.19] per 100 μg/L higher ferritin level; 1.11 [1.00-1.24] and 1.22 [1.12-1.33] per 0.5 g/L higher transferrin level) after adjusting for age, center, BMI, physical activity, smoking status, education, hs-CRP, alanine aminotransferase, and γ-glutamyl transferase. Elevated TSAT (≥45% vs. <45%) was associated with a lower risk of T2D in women (0.68 [0.54-0.86]) but was not statistically significantly associated in men (0.90 [0.75-1.08]). Serum iron was not associated with T2D. The association of ferritin with T2D was stronger among leaner individuals (Pinteraction < 0.01). Conclusions: The pattern of association of TSAT and transferrin with T2D suggests that the underlying relationship between iron stores and T2D is more complex than the simple link suggested by the association of ferritin with T2D.
    Full-text Article · Feb 2016 · Diabetes Care
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Introduction: Serum liver biomarkers (gamma-glutamyl transferase, GGT; alanine aminotransferase, ALT; aspartate aminotransferase, AST; alkaline phosphatase, ALP; total bilirubin) are used as indicators of liver disease, but there is currently little data on their prospective association with risk of hepatobiliary cancers. Methods: A nested-case control study was conducted within the prospective EPIC cohort (>520,000 participants, 10 European countries). After a mean 7.5 mean years of follow-up, 121 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), 34 intrahepatic bile duct (IHBC) and 131 gallbladder and biliary tract (GBTC) cases were identified and matched to 2 controls each. Circulating biomarkers were measured in serum taken at recruitment into the cohort, prior to cancer diagnosis. Multivariable adjusted conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (OR; 95%CI). Results: In multivariable models, 1SD increase of each log-transformed biomarker was positively associated with HCC risk (OR(GGT)=4.23, 95%CI:2.72-6.59; OR(ALP)=3.43, 95%CI:2.31-5.10;OR(AST)=3.00, 95%CI:2.04-4.42; OR(ALT)=2.69, 95%CI:1.89-3.84; OR(Bilirubin)=2.25, 95%CI:1.58-3.20). Each liver enzyme (OR(GGT)=4.98; 95%CI:1.75-14.17; OR(AST)=3.10, 95%CI:1.04-9.30; OR(ALT)=2.86, 95%CI:1.26-6.48, OR(ALP)=2.31, 95%CI:1.10-4.86) but not bilirubin (OR(Bilirubin)=1.46,95%CI:0.85-2.51) showed a significant association with IHBC. Only ALP was significantly associated with GBTC risk (OR(ALP)=1.59, 95%CI:1.20-2.09). Conclusion: This study shows positive associations between circulating liver biomarkers in sera collected prior to cancer diagnoses and the risks of developing HCC or IHBC, but not GBTC.
    Article · Feb 2016
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    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background: Carotenoids and vitamin C are thought to be associated with reduced cancer risk because of their antioxidative capacity. Objective: This study evaluated the associations of plasma carotenoid, retinol, tocopherol, and vitamin C concentrations and risk of breast cancer. Design: In a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, 1502 female incident breast cancer cases were included, with an oversampling of premenopausal (n = 582) and estrogen receptor-negative (ER-) cases (n = 462). Controls (n = 1502) were individually matched to cases by using incidence density sampling. Prediagnostic samples were analyzed for α-carotene, β-carotene, lycopene, lutein, zeaxanthin, β-cryptoxanthin, retinol, α-tocopherol, γ-tocopherol, and vitamin C. Breast cancer risk was computed according to hormone receptor status and age at diagnosis (proxy for menopausal status) by using conditional logistic regression and was further stratified by smoking status, alcohol consumption, and body mass index (BMI). All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results: In quintile 5 compared with quintile 1, α-carotene (OR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.39, 0.98) and β-carotene (OR: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.26, 0.65) were inversely associated with risk of ER- breast tumors. The other analytes were not statistically associated with ER- breast cancer. For estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) tumors, no statistically significant associations were found. The test for heterogeneity between ER- and ER+ tumors was statistically significant only for β-carotene (P-heterogeneity = 0.03). A higher risk of breast cancer was found for retinol in relation to ER-/progesterone receptor-negative tumors (OR: 2.37; 95% CI: 1.20, 4.67; P-heterogeneity with ER+/progesterone receptor positive = 0.06). We observed no statistically significant interaction between smoking, alcohol, or BMI and all investigated plasma analytes (based on tertile distribution). Conclusion: Our results indicate that higher concentrations of plasma β-carotene and α-carotene are associated with lower breast cancer risk of ER- tumors.
    Full-text Article · Jan 2016 · American Journal of Clinical Nutrition
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    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to investigate differences in dietary intakes between 30 251 participants in the EPIC-Oxford study, comprising 18 244 meat-eaters, 4 531 fish-eaters, 6 673 vegetarians and 803 vegans aged 30-90 years, who completed semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaires. We hypothesized that these groups characterized by varying degrees of animal product exclusion have significantly different intakes of many nutrients, with possible implications for dietary adequacy and compliance with population dietary goals. Nutrient intakes were estimated including fortification in foods, but excluding dietary supplements. Dietary supplementation practices were also evaluated. Highly significant differences were found in estimated nutrient intakes between meat-eaters and vegans, with fish-eaters and vegetarians usually having intermediate values. Meat-eaters had the highest energy intakes, followed by fish-eaters and vegetarians, while vegans had the lowest intakes. Vegans had the highest intakes of polyunsaturated fatty acids, dietary fiber, vitamins C, E, folate, magnesium, iron and copper. Meat eaters had the highest intake of saturated fatty acids, protein, vitamins B2, B12, D, zinc and iodine. Fish-eaters had the highest intakes of calcium and selenium. There were no statistically significant differences in sodium and potassium intakes between dietary groups. With the exception of sodium intake, compliance with population dietary goals was high across diet groups. The results suggested a high prevalence of inadequacy for dietary vitamin B12 and iodine in vegans. The diet groups under study showed striking differences in dietary intakes, with possible implications for compliance with dietary recommendations, as well as cardiometabolic diseases risk.
    Full-text Article · Jan 2016 · Nutrition Research

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Institutions

  • 1999-2015
    • University of Oxford
      • Cancer Epidemiology Unit
      Oxford, England, United Kingdom
  • 2014
    • University of Ioannina
      • Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology
      Yannina, Epirus, Greece
  • 2012
    • University Medical Center Utrecht
      • Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care
      Utrecht, Provincie Utrecht, Netherlands
  • 2011
    • WWF United Kingdom
      Londinium, England, United Kingdom
  • 2008
    • Imperial College London
      • Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics
      Londinium, England, United Kingdom
    • Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori di Milano
      Milano, Lombardy, Italy
  • 2007
    • Aarhus University
      • Department of Epidemiology and Social Medicine
      Aarhus, Central Jutland, Denmark
  • 1997-2007
    • University of Cambridge
      • Department of Public Health and Primary Care
      Cambridge, England, United Kingdom
  • 2006
    • University of Florence
      Florens, Tuscany, Italy
  • 2005
    • Umeå University
      Umeå, Västerbotten, Sweden
  • 2003-2005
    • University of Naples Federico II
      Napoli, Campania, Italy