[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: There has been progress towards malaria elimination in the last decade. In response, WHO launched the Global Technical Strategy (GTS), in which vector surveillance and control play important roles. Country experiences in the Eliminating Malaria Case Study Series were reviewed to identify success factors on the road to elimination using a cross-case study analytic approach.
Reports were included in the analysis if final English language draft reports or publications were available at the time of analysis (Bhutan, Cape Verde, Malaysia, Mauritius, Namibia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Turkmenistan). A conceptual framework for vector control in malaria elimination was developed, reviewed, formatted as a matrix, and case study data was extracted and entered into the matrix. A workshop was convened during which participants conducted reviews of the case studies and matrices and arrived at a consensus on the evidence and lessons. The framework was revised and a second round of data extraction, synthesis and summary of the case study reports was conducted.
Countries implemented a range of vector control interventions. Most countries aligned with integrated vector management, however its impact was not well articulated. All programmes conducted entomological surveillance, but the response (i.e., stratification and targeting of interventions, outbreak forecasting and strategy) was limited or not described. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) was commonly used by countries. There were several examples of severe reductions or halting of IRS coverage and subsequent resurgence of malaria. Funding and operational constraints and poor implementation had roles. Bed nets were commonly used by most programmes; coverage and effectiveness were either not measured or not articulated. Larval control was an important intervention for several countries, preventing re-introduction, however coverage and impact on incidence were not described. Across all interventions, coverage indicators were incomparable, and the rationale for which tools were used and which were not used appeared to be a function of the availability of funding, operational issues and cost instead of evidence of effectiveness to reduce incidence.
More work is required to fill gaps in programme guidance, clarify the best methods for choosing and targeting vector control interventions, and support to measure cost, cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of vector surveillance and control interventions.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The severe epidemic of Ebola virus disease in Liberia started in March 2014. On May 9, 2015, the World Health Organization declared Liberia free of Ebola, 42 days after safe burial of the last known case-patient. However, another 6 cases occurred during June-July; on September 3, 2015, the country was again declared free of Ebola. Liberia had by then reported 10,672 cases of Ebola and 4,808 deaths, 37.0% and 42.6%, respectively, of the 28,103 cases and 11,290 deaths reported from the 3 countries that were heavily affected at that time. Essential components of the response included government leadership and sense of urgency, coordinated international assistance, sound technical work, flexibility guided by epidemiologic data, transparency and effective communication, and efforts by communities themselves. Priorities after the epidemic include surveillance in case of resurgence, restoration of health services, infection control in healthcare settings, and strengthening of basic public health systems.
No preview · Article · Feb 2016 · Emerging infectious diseases
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy with sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine is contra-indicated in HIV-positive pregnant women receiving sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim prophylaxis. Since mefloquine is being considered as a replacement for sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine in this vulnerable population, an investigation on the pharmacokinetic interactions of mefloquine, sulfamethoxazole and trimethoprim in pregnant, HIV-infected women was performed.
A double-blinded, placebo-controlled study was conducted with 124 HIV-infected, pregnant women on a standard regimen of sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim prophylaxis. Seventy-two subjects received three doses of mefloquine (15 mg/kg) at monthly intervals. Dried blood spots were collected from both placebo and mefloquine arms four to 672 h post-administration and on day 7 following a second monthly dose of mefloquine. A novel high-performance liquid chromatographic method was developed to simultaneously measure mefloquine, sulfamethoxazole and trimethoprim from each blood spot. Non-compartmental methods using a naïve-pooled data approach were used to determine mefloquine pharmacokinetic parameters.
Sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim prophylaxis did not noticeably influence mefloquine pharmacokinetics relative to reported values. The mefloquine half-life, observed clearance (CL/f), and area-under-the-curve (AUC 0→∞ ) were 12.0 days, 0.035 l/h/kg and 431 µg-h/ml, respectively. Although trimethoprim steady-state levels were not significantly different between arms, sulfamethoxazole levels showed a significant 53 % decrease after mefloquine administration relative to the placebo group and returning to pre-dose levels at 28 days.
Although a transient decrease in sulfamethoxazole levels was observed, there was no change in hospital admissions due to secondary bacterial infections, implying that mefloquine may have provided antimicrobial protection.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background: An initial study of genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum in Asembo, western Kenya showed that the parasite maintained overall genetic stability 5 years after insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) introduction in 1997. This study investigates further the genetic diversity of P. falciparum 10 years after initial ITN introduction in the same study area and compares this with two other neighbouring areas, where ITNs were introduced in 1998 (Gem) and 2004 (Karemo).
Methods: From a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2007, 235 smear-positive blood samples collected from children ≤15-year-old in the original study area and two comparison areas were genotyped employing eight neutral microsatellites. Differences in multiple infections, allele frequency, parasite genetic diversity and parasite population structure between the three areas were assessed. Further, molecular data reported previously (1996 and 2001) were compared to the 2007 results in the original study area Asembo.
Results: Overall proportion of multiple infections (MA) declined with time in the original study area Asembo (from 95.9 %-2001 to 87.7 %-2007). In the neighbouring areas, MA was lower in the site where ITNs were introduced in 1998 (Gem 83.7 %) compared to where they were introduced in 2004 (Karemo 96.7 %) in 2007. Overall mean allele count (MAC ~ 2.65) and overall unbiased heterozygosity (He ~ 0.77) remained unchanged in 1996, 2001 and 2007 in Asembo and was the same level across the two neighbouring areas in 2007. Overall parasite population differentiation remained low over time and in the three areas at FST < 0.04. Both pairwise and multilocus linkage disequilibrium showed limited to no significant association between alleles in Asembo (1996, 2001 and 2007) and between three areas.
Conclusions: This study showed the P. falciparum high genetic diversity and parasite population resilience on samples collected 10 years apart and in different areas in western Kenya. The results highlight the need for long-term molecular monitoring after implementation and use of combined and intensive prevention and intervention measures in the region.
Keywords: Plasmodium falciparum, Population structure, Genetic diversity, ITNs, Transmission
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Although it is well known that drug pressure selects for drug-resistant parasites, the role of transmission reduction by insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) on drug resistance remains unclear. In this study, the drug resistance profile of current and previous first-line anti-malarials in Kenya was assessed within the context of drug policy change and scale-up of ITNs. National first-line treatment changed from chloroquine (CQ) to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) in 1998 and to artemether-lumefantrine (AL) in 2004. ITN use was scaled-up in the Asembo, Gem and Karemo areas of western Kenya in 1997, 1999 and 2006, respectively.
Smear-positive samples (N = 253) collected from a 2007 cross-sectional survey among children in Asembo, Gem and Karemo were genotyped for mutations in pfcrt and pfmdr1 (CQ), dhfr and dhps (SP), and at pfmdr-N86 and the gene copy number in pfmdr1 (lumefantrine). Results were compared among the three geographic areas in 2007 and to retrospective molecular data from children in Asembo in 2001.
In 2007, 69 and 85% of samples harboured the pfmdr1-86Y mutation and dhfr/dhps quintuple mutant, respectively, with no significant differences by study area. However, the prevalence of the pfcrt-76T mutation differed significantly among areas (p <0.02), between 76 and 94%, with the highest prevalence in Asembo. Several 2007 samples carried mutations at dhfr-164L, dhps-436A, or dhps-613T. From 2001 to 2007, there were significant increases in the pfcrt-76T mutation from 82 to 94% (p <0.03), dhfr/dhps quintuple mutant from 62 to 82% (p <0.03), and an increase in the septuple CQ and SP combined mutant haplotype, K 76 Y 86 I 51 R 59 N 108 G 437 E 540 , from 28 to 39%. The prevalence of the pfmdr1-86Y mutation remained unchanged. All samples were single copy for pfmdr1.
Molecular markers associated with lumefantrine resistance were not detected in 2007. More recent samples will be needed to detect any selective effects by AL. The prevalence of CQ and SP resistance markers increased from 2001 to 2007 in the absence of changes in transmission intensity. In 2007, only the prevalence of pfcrt-76T mutation differed among study areas of varying transmission intensity. Resistant parasites were most likely selected by sustained drug pressure from the continued use of CQ, SP, and mechanistically similar drugs, such as amodiaquine and cotrimoxazole. There was no clear evidence that differences in transmission intensity, as a result of ITN scale-up, influenced the prevalence of drug resistance molecular markers.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background:
The artemisinin anti-malarials are widely deployed as artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). However, they are not recommended for uncomplicated malaria during the first trimester because safety data from humans are scarce.
This was a prospective cohort study of women of child-bearing age carried out in 2011-2013, evaluating the relationship between inadvertent ACT exposure during first trimester and miscarriage. Community-based surveillance was used to identify 1134 early pregnancies. Cox proportional hazard models with left truncation were used.
The risk of miscarriage among pregnancies exposed to ACT (confirmed + unconfirmed) in the first trimester, or during the embryo-sensitive period (≥6 to <13 weeks gestation) was higher than among pregnancies unexposed to anti-malarials in the first trimester: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.70, 95 % CI (1.08-2.68) and HR = 1.61 (0.96-2.70). For confirmed ACT-exposures (primary analysis) the corresponding values were: HR = 1.24 (0.56-2.74) and HR = 0.73 (0.19-2.82) relative to unexposed women, and HR = 0.99 (0.12-8.33) and HR = 0.32 (0.03-3.61) relative to quinine exposure, but the numbers of quinine exposures were very small.
ACT exposure in early pregnancy was more common than quinine exposure. Confirmed inadvertent artemisinin exposure during the potential embryo-sensitive period was not associated with increased risk of miscarriage. Confirmatory studies are needed to rule out a smaller than three-fold increase in risk.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: We measured the reproduction number before and after interventions were implemented to reduce Ebola transmission in 9 outbreaks in Liberia during 2014. We evaluated risk factors for secondary cases and the association between patient admission to an Ebola treatment unit (ETU) and survival. The reproduction number declined 94% from 1.7 (95% CI 1.1–2.6) to 0.1 (95% CI 0.02–0.6) after interventions began. The risk for secondary infections was 90% lower for patients admitted to an ETU (risk ratio 0.1, 95% CI 0.04–0.3) than for those who died in the community. The case-fatality rate was 68% (95% CI 60–74), and ETU admission was associated with a 50% reduction in death (hazard ratio 0.5, 95% CI 0.4–0.8). Isolation and treatment of Ebola patients had the dual benefit of interrupting community transmission and improving survival.
Full-text · Article · Oct 2015 · Emerging Infectious Diseases
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the World Health Organization held its seventh meeting in Geneva, Switzerland from 5 to 7 March 2015. This article provides a summary of the discussions, conclusions and meeting recommendations. Meeting sessions included: an update on the Greater Mekong Subregion elimination strategy; an update on the RTS,S vaccine; G6PD testing to support the safe use of anti-relapse therapy for Plasmodium vivax; update from the Vector Control Advisory Group; newly proposed evidence reviews or consultations on malaria terminology, malaria in pregnancy, and the feasibility of eradication; as well as updates from the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme regarding their strategy update and policy setting processes. Policy statements, position statements, and guidelines that arise from the Malaria Policy Advisory Committee meeting conclusions and recommendations will be formally issued and disseminated to World Health Organization Member States by the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background: Current available malaria diagnostic methods each have some limitations to meet the need for real-time and large-scale screening of asymptomatic and low density malaria infection at community level. It was proposed that malaria parasite-specific low molecular-weight metabolites could be used as biomarkers for the development of a malaria diagnostic tool aimed to address this diagnostic challenge. In this study, high resolution metabolomics (HRM) was employed to identify malaria parasite-specific metabolites in Plasmodium falciparum in vitro culture samples.
Methods: Supernatants were collected at 12 hours interval from 3% haematocrit in vitro 48-hour time-course asynchronized culture system of P. falciparum. Liquid chromatography coupled with high resolution mass spectrometry was applied to discover potential parasite-specific metabolites in the cell culture supernatant. A metabolome-wide association study was performed to extract metabolites using Manhattan plot with false discovery rate (FDR) and hierarchical cluster analysis. The significant metabolites based on FDR cutoff were annotated using Metlin database. Standard curves were created using corresponding chemical compounds to accurately quantify potential Plasmodium-specific metabolites in culture supernatants.
Results: The number of significant metabolite features was 1025 in the supernatant of the Plasmodium infected culture based on Manhattan plot with FDR q=0.05. A two way hierarchical cluster analysis showed a clear segregation of the metabolic profile of parasite infected supernatant from non-infected supernatant at four time points during the 48 hour
culture. Among the 1025 annotated metabolites, the intensities of four molecules were significantly increased with culture time suggesting a positive association between the quantity of these molecules and level of parasitaemia: i) 3-methylindole, a mosquito attractant, ii) succinylacetone, a haem biosynthesis inhibitor, iii) S-methyl-L-thiocitrulline, a nitric oxide synthase inhibitor, and iv) O-arachidonoyl glycidol, a fatty acid amide hydrolase inhibitor, The highest concentrations of 3-methylindole and succinylacetone were 178 ± 18.7 pmoles at 36 hours and 157±30.5 pmoles at 48 hours respectively in parasite infected supernatant.
Conclusion: HRM with bioinformatics identified four potential parasite-specific metabolite biomarkers using in vitro culture supernatants. Further study in malaria infected human is needed to determine presence of the molecules and its relationship with parasite densities.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the World Health Organization held its sixth meeting in Geneva, Switzerland from 10 to 12 September 2014. This article provides a summary of the discussions, conclusions and recommendations from that meeting. Meeting sessions covered the following: an update on drug resistance and containment including an assessment on the feasibility of elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion; guidance on the control of residual malaria transmission by behaviourally resistant vectors; progress on the implementation of the Global Plan for Insecticide Resistance Management; updates on the Global Technical Strategy, Global Malaria Action Plan and the Plasmodium vivax technical brief; gaps in current World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme guidance for acceleration to elimination; surveillance, monitoring and evaluation; the updated World Health Organization Guidelines for the Prevention and Treatment of Malaria; Round 5 product testing for rapid diagnostic tests; and Intermittent Preventive Treatment for infants. Policy statements, position statements, and guidelines that arise from the Malaria Policy Advisory Committee meeting conclusions and recommendations will be formally issued and disseminated to World Health Organization Member States by the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: West Africa is experiencing its first epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) (1). As of February 9, Liberia has reported 8,864 Ebola cases, of which 3,147 were laboratory-confirmed. Beginning in August 2014, the Liberia Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MOHSW), supported by CDC, the World Health Organization (WHO), and others, began systematically investigating and responding to Ebola outbreaks in remote areas. Because many of these areas lacked mobile telephone service, easy road access, and basic infrastructure, flexible and targeted interventions often were required. Development of a national strategy for the Rapid Isolation and Treatment of Ebola (RITE) began in early October. The strategy focuses on enhancing capacity of county health teams (CHT) to investigate outbreaks in remote areas and lead tailored responses through effective and efficient coordination of technical and operational assistance from the MOHSW central level and international partners. To measure improvements in response indicators and outcomes over time, data from investigations of 12 of 15 outbreaks in remote areas with illness onset dates of index cases during July 16–November 20, 2014, were analyzed. The times to initial outbreak alerts and durations of the outbreaks declined over that period while the proportions of patients who were isolated and treated increased. At the same time, the case-fatality rate in each outbreak declined. Implementation of strategies, such as RITE, to rapidly respond to rural outbreaks of Ebola through coordinated and tailored responses can successfully reduce transmission and improve outcomes.
Full-text · Article · Feb 2015 · MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: On October 16, 2014, a woman aged 48 years traveled from Monrovia, Liberia, to the Kayah region of Rivercess County, a remote, resource-poor, and sparsely populated region of Liberia, and died on October 21 with symptoms compatible with Ebola virus disease (Ebola). She was buried in accordance with local tradition, which included grooming, touching, and kissing the body by family and other community members while it was being prepared for burial. During October 24-November 12, eight persons with probable and 13 with confirmed Ebola epidemiologically linked to the deceased woman had onset of symptoms. Nineteen of the 21 persons lived in five nearby villages in Kayah region; two, both with probable cases, lived in neighboring Grand Bassa County (Figure). Four of the confirmed cases in Kayah were linked by time and location, although the source case could not be determined because the patients had more than one exposure.
No preview · Article · Feb 2015 · MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: West Africa is experiencing its first epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola). As of February 9, Liberia has reported 8,864 Ebola cases, of which 3,147 were laboratory-confirmed. Beginning in August 2014, the Liberia Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MOHSW), supported by CDC, the World Health Organization (WHO), and others, began systematically investigating and responding to Ebola outbreaks in remote areas. Because many of these areas lacked mobile telephone service, easy road access, and basic infrastructure, flexible and targeted interventions often were required. Development of a national strategy for the Rapid Isolation and Treatment of Ebola (RITE) began in early October. The strategy focuses on enhancing capacity of county health teams (CHT) to investigate outbreaks in remote areas and lead tailored responses through effective and efficient coordination of technical and operational assistance from the MOHSW central level and international partners. To measure improvements in response indicators and outcomes over time, data from investigations of 12 of 15 outbreaks in remote areas with illness onset dates of index cases during July 16-November 20, 2014, were analyzed. The times to initial outbreak alerts and durations of the outbreaks declined over that period while the proportions of patients who were isolated and treated increased. At the same time, the case-fatality rate in each outbreak declined. Implementation of strategies, such as RITE, to rapidly respond to rural outbreaks of Ebola through coordinated and tailored responses can successfullyreduce transmission and improve outcomes.
Full-text · Article · Feb 2015 · MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Continuous monitoring in health and demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) allows for collection of longitudinal demographic data, health related, and socio-economic indicators of the site population. We sought to use household survey data collected between 2002 and 2006 in the Kenya Medical Research Institute in collaboration with Centers for Disease Control and prevention (KEMRI/CDC) HDSS site in Asembo and Gem Western Kenya to estimate socio-economic status (SES) and assess changes of SES over time and space. Data on household assets and characteristics, mainly source of drinking water, cooking fuel, and occupation of household head was annually collected from 44,313 unique households during the study period. An SES index was calculated as a weighted average of assets using weights generated via Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Polychoric PCA, and Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) methods applied to the pooled data. The index from the best method was used to rank households into SES quintiles and assess their transition over time across SES categories. Kriging was employed to produce SES maps at the start and the end of the study period. First component of PCA, Polychoric PCA, and MCA accounted for 13.7%, 31.8%, and 47.3%, respectively of the total variance of all variables. The gap between the poorest and the least poor increased from 1% at the start to 6% at the end of the study period. Spatial analysis revealed that the increase in least poor households was centered in the lower part of study area (Asembo) over time. No significant changes were observed in Gem. The HDSS sites can provide a platform to assess spatial–temporal changes in the SES status of the population. Evidence on how SES varied over time and space within the same geographical area may provide a useful tool to design interventions in health and other areas that have a close bearing to the SES of the population.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The efficacy and safety of the RTS,S/AS01 candidate malaria vaccine during 18 months of follow-up have been published previously. Herein, we report the final results from the same trial, including the efficacy of a booster dose.
From March 27, 2009, until Jan 31, 2011, children (age 5-17 months) and young infants (age 6-12 weeks) were enrolled at 11 centres in seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1) at first vaccination by block randomisation with minimisation by centre to receive three doses of RTS,S/AS01 at months 0, 1, and 2 and a booster dose at month 20 (R3R group); three doses of RTS,S/AS01 and a dose of comparator vaccine at month 20 (R3C group); or a comparator vaccine at months 0, 1, 2, and 20 (C3C [control group]). Participants were followed up until Jan 31, 2014. Cases of clinical and severe malaria were captured through passive case detection. Serious adverse events (SAEs) were recorded. Analyses were by modified intention to treat and per protocol. The coprimary endpoints were the occurrence of malaria over 12 months after dose 3 in each age category. In this final analysis, we present data for the efficacy of the booster on the occurrence of malaria. Vaccine efficacy (VE) against clinical malaria was analysed by negative binomial regression and against severe malaria by relative risk reduction. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00866619.
8922 children and 6537 young infants were included in the modified intention-to-treat analyses. Children were followed up for a median of 48 months (IQR 39-50) and young infants for 38 months (34-41) after dose 1. From month 0 until study end, compared with 9585 episodes of clinical malaria that met the primary case definition in children in the C3C group, 6616 episodes occurred in the R3R group (VE 36·3%, 95% CI 31·8-40·5) and 7396 occurred in the R3C group (28·3%, 23·3-32·9); compared with 171 children who experienced at least one episode of severe malaria in the C3C group, 116 children experienced at least one episode of severe malaria in the R3R group (32·2%, 13·7 to 46·9) and 169 in the R3C group (1·1%, -23·0 to 20·5). In young infants, compared with 6170 episodes of clinical malaria that met the primary case definition in the C3C group, 4993 episodes occurred in the R3R group (VE 25·9%, 95% CI 19·9-31·5) and 5444 occurred in the R3C group (18·3%, 11·7-24·4); and compared with 116 infants who experienced at least one episode of severe malaria in the C3C group, 96 infants experienced at least one episode of severe malaria in the R3R group (17·3%, 95% CI -9·4 to 37·5) and 104 in the R3C group (10·3%, -17·9 to 31·8). In children, 1774 cases of clinical malaria were averted per 1000 children (95% CI 1387-2186) in the R3R group and 1363 per 1000 children (995-1797) in the R3C group. The numbers of cases averted per 1000 young infants were 983 (95% CI 592-1337) in the R3R group and 558 (158-926) in the R3C group. The frequency of SAEs overall was balanced between groups. However, meningitis was reported as a SAE in 22 children: 11 in the R3R group, ten in the R3C group, and one in the C3C group. The incidence of generalised convulsive seizures within 7 days of RTS,S/AS01 booster was 2·2 per 1000 doses in young infants and 2·5 per 1000 doses in children.
RTS,S/AS01 prevented a substantial number of cases of clinical malaria over a 3-4 year period in young infants and children when administered with or without a booster dose. Efficacy was enhanced by the administration of a booster dose in both age categories. Thus, the vaccine has the potential to make a substantial contribution to malaria control when used in combination with other effective control measures, especially in areas of high transmission.
GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA and the PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) result in more deaths globally than other causes. Monitoring systems require strengthening to attribute the NCD burden and deaths in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Data from health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) can contribute towards this goal.
Between 2003 and 2010, 15,228 deaths in adults aged 15 years (y) and older were identified retrospectively using the HDSS census and verbal autopsy in rural western Kenya, attributed into broad categories using InterVA-4 computer algorithms; 37% were ascribed to NCDs, 60% to communicable diseases (CDs), 3% to injuries, and <1% maternal causes. Median age at death for NCDs was 66y and 71y for females and males, respectively, with 43% (39% male, 48% female) of NCD deaths occurring prematurely among adults aged below 65y. NCD deaths were mainly attributed to cancers (35%) and cardio-vascular diseases (CVDs; 29%). The proportionate mortality from NCDs rose from 35% in 2003 to 45% in 2010 (χ2 linear trend 93.4; p<0.001). While overall annual mortality rates (MRs) for NCDs fell, cancer-specific MRs rose from 200 to 262 per 100,000 population, mainly due to increasing deaths in adults aged 65y and older, and to respiratory neoplasms in all age groups. The substantial fall in CD MRs resulted in similar MRs for CDs and NCDs among all adult females by 2010. NCD MRs for adults aged 15y to <65y fell from 409 to 183 per 100,000 among females and from 517 to 283 per 100,000 population among males. NCD MRs were higher among males than females aged both below, and at or above, 65y.
NCDs constitute a significant proportion of deaths in rural western Kenya. Evidence of the increasing contribution of NCDs to overall mortality supports international recommendations to introduce or enhance prevention, screening, diagnosis and treatment programmes in LMICs.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Monitoring local malaria transmission intensity is essential for planning evidence-based control strategies and evaluating their impact over time. Anti-malarial antibodies provide information on cumulative exposure and have proven useful, in areas where transmission has dropped to low sustained levels, for retrospectively reconstructing the timing and magnitude of transmission reduction. It is unclear whether serological markers are also informative in high transmission settings, where interventions may reduce transmission, but to a level where considerable exposure continues.
This study was conducted through ongoing KEMRI and CDC collaboration. Asembo, in Western Kenya, is an area where intense malaria transmission was drastically reduced during a 1997-1999 community-randomized, controlled insecticide-treated net (ITN) trial. Two approaches were taken to reconstruct malaria transmission history during the period from 1994 to 2009. First, point measurements were calculated for seroprevalence, mean antibody titre, and seroconversion rate (SCR) against three Plasmodium falciparum antigens (AMA-1, MSP-119, and CSP) at five time points for comparison against traditional malaria indices (parasite prevalence and entomological inoculation rate). Second, within individual post-ITN years, age-stratified seroprevalence data were analysed retrospectively for an abrupt drop in SCR by fitting alternative reversible catalytic conversion models that allowed for change in SCR.
Generally, point measurements of seroprevalence, antibody titres and SCR produced consistent patterns indicating that a gradual but substantial drop in malaria transmission (46-70%) occurred from 1994 to 2007, followed by a marginal increase beginning in 2008 or 2009. In particular, proportionate changes in seroprevalence and SCR point estimates (relative to 1994 baseline values) for AMA-1 and CSP, but not MSP-119, correlated closely with trends in parasite prevalence throughout the entire 15-year study period. However, retrospective analyses using datasets from 2007, 2008 and 2009 failed to detect any abrupt drop in transmission coinciding with the timing of the 1997-1999 ITN trial.
In this highly endemic area, serological markers were useful for generating accurate point estimates of malaria transmission intensity, but not for retrospective analysis of historical changes. Further investigation, including exploration of different malaria antigens and/or alternative models of population seroconversion, may yield serological tools that are more informative in high transmission settings.