Manami Inoue

The University of Tokyo, 白山, Tōkyō, Japan

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Publications (334)1760.31 Total impact

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    ABSTRACT: Diabetes mellitus constitutes a major disease burden globally, and the prevalence of diabetes continues to increase worldwide. We aimed to estimate the burden of cancer associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Japan between 2010 and 2030. In this study, we estimated the Population Attributable Fraction of cancer risk associated with type 2 diabetes in 2010 and 2030 using the prevalence estimates of type 2 diabetes in Japan from 1990 to 2030, summary hazard ratios of diabetes and cancer risk from a pooled analysis of eight large-scale Japanese cohort studies, observed incidence/mortality of cancer in 2010 and predicted incidence/mortality for 2030 derived from the age-period-cohort model. Our results showed that between 2010 and 2030, the total number of cancer incidence and mortality were predicted to increase by 38.9% and 10.5% in adults aged above 20 years, respectively. In the number of excess incident cancer cases associated with type 2 diabetes, an increase of 26.5% in men and 53.2% in women is expected between 2010 and 2030. The age-specific analysis showed that the population attributable fraction of cancer will increase in adults aged >60 years over time, but will not change in adults aged 20-59 years. In conclusion, this study suggests a modest but steady increase in cancers associated with type 2 diabetes.
    No preview · Article · Feb 2016 · Cancer Science
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    ABSTRACT: Background: Psychological stress is a modifiable risk factor for health outcomes and can be managed through coping mechanisms. Biological and behavioral hypotheses have been proposed to explain the association between stress coping strategies and cancer outcomes. Methods: The Japan Public Health Center-based study asked questions on coping behaviors in its 10-year follow-up survey. 55,130 subjects aged 50-79 without a history of cancer diagnosis and who provided complete answers on coping were included in analyses on cancer incidence and mortality. Hazard Ratios (HR) according to coping style were determined using Cox regression models adjusted for known confounders for cancer. Results: Mean follow-up time was 9.5 years for cancer incidence and 9.8 years for cancer mortality. The utilization of the approach-oriented coping strategy (HR=0.85, 95% CI: 0.72-0.99) and a behavior of positive reappraisal (HR=0.84, 95% CI: 0.72-0.97) was associated with a reduced risk of cancer mortality. The approach-oriented coping strategy was further associated with localized cancer incidence (HR=1.13, 95% CI: 1.01-1.27) and screening-detected cancers (HR=1.35, 95% CI: 1.15-1.58). The avoidance oriented coping strategy was inversely associated with cancer incidence (HR=0.69, 95% CI: 0.50-0.94) only after excluding events occurring in the first three years of follow-up. Conclusion: The results of this study may favor the behavioral hypothesis to explain associations between premorbid coping styles and cancer outcomes.
    No preview · Article · Feb 2016
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    Full-text · Article · Jan 2016 · Journal of the American Heart Association
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    ABSTRACT: Aims: Coping strategies may be significantly associated with health outcomes. This is the first study to investigate the association between baseline coping strategies and cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality in a general population cohort. Methods and results: The Japan Public Health Center-based prospective Study asked questions on coping in its third follow-up survey (2000-04). Analyses on CVD incidence and mortality included 57 017 subjects aged 50-79 without a history of CVD and who provided complete answers on approach- and avoidance-oriented coping behaviours and strategies. Cox regression models, adjusted for confounders, were used to determine hazard ratios (HRs) according to coping style. Mean follow-up time was 7.9 years for incidence and 8.0 years for mortality.The premorbid use of an approach-oriented coping strategy was inversely associated with incidence of stroke (HR = 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73-1.00) and CVD mortality (HR = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.55-0.99). Stroke subtype analyses revealed an inverse association between the approach-oriented coping strategy and incidence of ischaemic stroke (HR = 0.79; 95% CI, 0.64-0.98) and a positive association between the combined coping strategy and incidence of intra-parenchymal haemorrhage (HR = 2.03; 95% CI, 1.01-4.10). Utilizing an avoidance coping strategy was associated with increased mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) only in hypertensive individuals (HR = 3.46; 95% CI, 1.07-11.18). The coping behaviours fantasizing and positive reappraisal were associated with increased risk of CVD incidence (HR = 1.24; 95% CI, 1.03-1.50) and reduced risk of IHD mortality (HR = 0.63; 95% CI, 0.40-0.99), respectively. Conclusion: An approach-oriented coping strategy, i.e. proactively dealing with sources of stress, may be associated with significantly reduced stroke incidence and CVD mortality in a Japanese population-based cohort.
    No preview · Article · Jan 2016 · European Heart Journal
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    ABSTRACT: Background: The association between time spent walking and risk of diabetes was investigated in a Japanese population-based cohort. Methods: Data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Diabetes cohort were analyzed. The surveys of diabetes were performed at baseline and at the 5-year follow-up. Time spent walking per day was assessed using a self-reported questionnaire (<30 minutes, 30 minutes to <1 hour, 1 to <2 hours, or ≥2 hours). A cross-sectional analysis was performed among 26 488 adults in the baseline survey. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between time spent walking and the presence of unrecognized diabetes. We then performed a longitudinal analysis that was restricted to 11 101 non-diabetic adults who participated in both the baseline and 5-year surveys. The association between time spent walking and the incidence of diabetes during the 5 years was examined. Results: In the cross-sectional analysis, 1058 participants had unrecognized diabetes. Those with time spent walking of <30 minutes per day had increased odds of having diabetes in relation to those with time spent walking of ≥2 hours (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.23; 95% CI, 1.02–1.48). In the longitudinal analysis, 612 participants developed diabetes during the 5 years of follow-up. However, a significant association between time spent walking and the incidence of diabetes was not observed. Conclusions: Increased risk of diabetes was implied in those with time spent walking of <30 minutes per day, although the longitudinal analysis failed to show a significant result.
    Preview · Article · Jan 2016 · Journal of Epidemiology
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    ABSTRACT: Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.
    Full-text · Article · Dec 2015 · The Lancet
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    ABSTRACT: This appendix provides further methodological detail, supplemental figures and more detailed results for the comparative risk assessment.
    Full-text · Dataset · Dec 2015
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    ABSTRACT: Reports relating meat intake to prostate cancer risk are inconsistent. Associations between these dietary factors and prostate cancer were examined in a consortium of 15 cohort studies. During follow-up, 52,683 incident prostate cancer cases, including 4,924 advanced cases, were identified among 842, 149 men. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate study-specific relative risks (RR) and then pooled using random effects models. Results do not support a substantial effect of total red, unprocessed red and processed meat for all prostate cancer outcomes, except for a modest positive association for tumors identified as advanced stage at diagnosis (advanced(r)). For seafood, no substantial effect was observed for prostate cancer regardless of stage or grade. Poultry intake was inversely associated with risk of advanced and fatal cancers (pooled multivariable RR [MVRR], 95% confidence interval, comparing ≥45 vs. <5 g/d: advanced 0.83, 0.70-0.99; trend test p-value 0.29), fatal, 0.69, 0.59-0.82, trend test p-value 0.16). Participants who ate ≥25 vs <5 g/d of eggs (1 egg ∼ 50 g) had a significant 14% increased risk of advanced and fatal cancers (MVRR: advanced 1.14, 1.01-1.28, trend test p-value 0.01; fatal 1.14, 1.00-1.30, trend test p-value 0.01). When associations were analyzed separately by geographical region (North America vs. other continents), positive associations between unprocessed red meat and egg intake, and inverse associations between poultry intake and advanced, advanced(r) and fatal cancers were limited to North American studies. However, differences were only statistically significant for eggs. Observed differences in associations by geographical region warrant further investigation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    No preview · Article · Dec 2015 · International Journal of Cancer
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    ABSTRACT: Background: Recently, increased development of clinical prediction models has been reported in the medical literature. However, evidence synthesis methodologies for these prediction models have not been sufficiently studied, especially for practical situations such as a meta-analyses where only aggregated summaries of important predictors are available. Also, in general, the covariate sets involved in the prediction models are not common across studies. As in ordinary model misspecification problems, dropping relevant covariates would raise potentially serious biases to the prediction models, and consequently to the synthesized results. Methods: We developed synthesizing methods for logistic clinical prediction models with possibly different sets of covariates. In order to aggregate the regression coefficient estimates from different prediction models, we adopted a generalized least squares approach with non-linear terms (a sort of generalization of multivariate meta-analysis). Firstly, we evaluated omitted variable biases in this approach. Then, under an assumption of homogeneity of studies, we developed bias-corrected estimating procedures for regression coefficients of the synthesized prediction models. Results: Numerical evaluations with simulations showed that our approach resulted in smaller biases and more precise estimates compared with conventional methods, which use only studies with common covariates or which utilize a mean imputation method for omitted coefficients. These methods were also applied to a series of Japanese epidemiologic studies on the incidence of a stroke. Conclusions: Our proposed methods adequately correct the biases due to different sets of covariates between studies, and would provide precise estimates compared with the conventional approach. If the assumption of homogeneity within studies is plausible, this methodology would be useful for incorporating prior published information into the construction of new prediction models.
    Preview · Article · Dec 2015 · BMC Medical Research Methodology
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    ABSTRACT: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition-in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden-is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
    Full-text · Article · Nov 2015 · The Lancet
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    ABSTRACT: Previous studies have reported associations between diabetes and cancer risk. However, specific association of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels with cancer risk remains inconclusive. We followed 29,629 individuals (11,336 men; 18,293 women) aged 46-80 years who participated in the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective study who had HbA1c measurements available and were cancer-free at baseline. Cancer incidence was assessed by systemic surveys. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer risk with adjustment for age sex, geographic area, body mass index, smoking status, physical activity, alcohol, coffee, vegetable and total energy consumption, and history of cardiovascular disease. After a median follow-up of 8.5 years, 1,955 individuals had developed cancer. Higher HbA1c levels within both the non-diabetic and diabetic ranges in individuals without known diabetes were associated with overall cancer risk. Compared to individuals without known diabetes and HbA1c levels of 5.0-5.4%, the HRs for all cancers were 1.27 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.52); 1.01 (0.90-1.14); 1.28 (1.09-1.49); and 1.43 (1.14-1.80) for individuals without known diabetes and HbA1c levels <5.0%, 5.5-5.9%, 6.0-6.4%, and ≥6.5%, respectively, and 1.22 (1.02-1.47) for individuals with known diabetes. The lowest HbA1c group had the highest risk of liver cancer, and HbA1c levels were linearly associated with the risk of all cancers after excluding liver cancer (P for linear trend, 0.004). In conclusion, our findings corroborate the notion that glycemic control in individuals with high HbA1c levels may be important not only to prevent diabetes but also to prevent cancer. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    No preview · Article · Nov 2015 · International Journal of Cancer
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    ABSTRACT: Background: Most previous prospective studies inWestern countries found no association between consumption of fish and n-3 (v-3) polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), such as eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), for which the main source is fish, and pancreatic cancer risk. However, prospective evidence is still lacking among populations who have a relatively higher fish consumption. Objective: We investigated the association between fish and n-3 PUFA consumption and pancreatic cancer risk in a populationbased, prospective study in Japanese men and women. Design: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study (JPHC study) has enrolled 140,420 subjects. We analyzed data on 82,024 eligible participants aged 45-74 y without a history of cancer who responded to a validated food-frequency questionnaire that included 138 items in 1995 for cohort I and in 1998 for cohort II. Participants were followed through 2010. HRs and corresponding 95% CIs for the highest compared with lowest quartile were calculated by using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results: During 1,068,774 person-years of follow-up, 449 newly diagnosed pancreatic cancers were identified. After the exclusion of pancreatic cancer cases in the first 3 y of follow-up, we found an inverse association of marine n-3 PUFA (EPA+DPA+DHA) and DHA consumption with pancreatic cancer risk: compared with the lowest quartile, multivariate-adjusted HRs in the highest quartile were 0.70 (95% CI: 0.51, 0.95; P-trend = 0.07) and 0.69 (0.51, 0.94; P-trend = 0.03), respectively. Associations for total fish, n-3 PUFA, EPA, and DPA consumption were similar but were not significant. Conclusion: High n-3 PUFA, especially marine n-3 PUFAs, and DHA consumption was associated with a lower risk of pancreatic cancer in a population with a large variation in fish consumption, although the data apply to only a portion of the JPHC study subjects.
    No preview · Article · Nov 2015 · American Journal of Clinical Nutrition
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    ABSTRACT: Objectives: Prolonged sitting is a health risk for cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality, independent of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Epidemiological evaluation of occupational sitting has received little attention, even though it may have a potential impact on workers' health. We prospectively examined the association between occupational sitting time and all-cause mortality. Methods: Community-dwelling, Japanese workers aged 50-74 years who responded to a questionnaire in 2000-2003 were followed for all-cause mortality through 2011. Cox proportional hazard models were employed to calculate hazard ratios (HR) of all-cause mortality among middle (1 to <3 hours/day) or longer (≥≥3 hours/day) occupationally sedentary subjects by gender or types of engaging industry ("primary industry" and "secondary or tertiary industry"). Results: During 368 120 person-years of follow-up (average follow-up period, 10.1 years) for the 36 516 subjects, 2209 deaths were identified. Among workers in primary industry, longer duration of occupational sitting was significantly or marginally associated with higher mortality [HR 1.23, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.00-1.51 among men; HR 1.34, 95% CI 0.97-1.84 among women]. No associations were found among secondary or tertiary industry workers (men: HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.75-1.01; women: HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.77-1.39). Conclusions: Occupational sitting time increased all-cause mortality among primary industry workers, however similar relationships were not observed for secondary-tertiary workers. Future studies are needed to confirm detailed dose-response relationships by using objective measures. In addition, studies using cause-specific mortality data would be important to clarify the physiological underlying mechanism.
    No preview · Article · Oct 2015 · Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment & Health
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    ABSTRACT: Objective The association between vegetable consumption and colorectal cancer risk remains unclear and may differ by region. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies on this issue among the Japanese population. Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed by searching MEDLINE through PubMed and the Ichushi database for cohort and case–control studies that were published by the end of December 2014. Associations were evaluated based on their magnitude and the strength of the evidence. Meta-analysis was performed by using the random effects model to estimate the summary relative risk with 95% confidence interval according to the study design. The final judgment was made based on a consensus of the research group members with consideration for both epidemiological evidence and biological plausibility. Results We identified six cohort studies and 11 case–control studies on vegetable intake and colorectal cancer among the Japanese population. Of the cohort studies, one study showed a weak inverse association with colon cancer and another study showed a weak positive association with rectal cancer in men, but other studies found no associations between vegetable consumption and colon and rectal cancers. With regard to case–control studies, one study found a strong inverse association with colon cancer, and three studies showed a weak-to-strong inverse association with rectal cancer. In meta-analysis, the summary relative risk (95% confidence interval) for the highest vs. the lowest categories of vegetable consumption were 1.00 (0.92–1.10) and 0.75 (0.59–0.96) for cohort and case–control studies, respectively. Conclusions There was insufficient evidence to support an association between intake of vegetables and the risk of colorectal cancer among the Japanese population.
    No preview · Article · Oct 2015 · Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology
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    ABSTRACT: Breast cancer aetiology may differ by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Associations of alcohol and folate intakes with risk of breast cancer defined by ER status were examined in pooled analyses of the primary data from 20 cohorts. During a maximum of 6-18 years of follow-up of 1 089 273 women, 21 624 ER+ and 5113 ER- breast cancers were identified. Study-specific multivariable relative risks (RRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models and then combined using a random-effects model. Alcohol consumption was positively associated with risk of ER+ and ER- breast cancer. The pooled multivariable RRs (95% confidence intervals) comparing ≥ 30 g/d with 0 g/day of alcohol consumption were 1.35 (1.23-1.48) for ER+ and 1.28 (1.10-1.49) for ER- breast cancer (Ptrend ≤ 0.001; Pcommon-effects by ER status: 0.57). Associations were similar for alcohol intake from beer, wine and liquor. The associations with alcohol intake did not vary significantly by total (from foods and supplements) folate intake (Pinteraction ≥ 0.26). Dietary (from foods only) and total folate intakes were not associated with risk of overall, ER+ and ER- breast cancer; pooled multivariable RRs ranged from 0.98 to 1.02 comparing extreme quintiles. Following-up US studies through only the period before mandatory folic acid fortification did not change the results. The alcohol and folate associations did not vary by tumour subtypes defined by progesterone receptor status. Alcohol consumption was positively associated with risk of both ER+ and ER- breast cancer, even among women with high folate intake. Folate intake was not associated with breast cancer risk. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.
    No preview · Article · Aug 2015 · International Journal of Epidemiology
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    ABSTRACT: Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
    Full-text · Article · Aug 2015 · The Lancet
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    ABSTRACT: Figure appendix: Change in YLD rate from 1990 to 2013 for 188 countries and 21 regions (changes have been decomposed into 31 major cause groups and countries are ordered by the YLD rate in 1990).
    Full-text · Dataset · Aug 2015
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    ABSTRACT: This appendix provides further methodological detail, supplemental figures, and more detailed results for incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability. The appendix is organised in broad sections following the structure of the main paper.
    Full-text · Dataset · Aug 2015
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    ABSTRACT: Gastric cancer is a particularly important issue in Japan, where incidence rates are among the highest observed. In this work, we provide a risk prediction model allowing the estimation of the 10-year cumulative probability of gastric cancer occurrence. The study population consisted of 19,028 individuals from the Japanese Public Health Center cohort II who were followed-up from 1993 to 2009. A parametric survival model was used to assess the impact on the probability of gastric cancer of clinical and lifestyle-related risk factors in combination with serum anti-Helicobacter pylori antibody titres and pepsinogen I and pepsinogen II levels. Based on the resulting model, cumulative probability estimates were calculated and a simple risk scoring system was developed. A total of 412 cases of gastric cancer occurred during 270,854 person-years of follow-up. The final model included (besides the biological markers) age, gender, smoking status, family history of gastric cancer and consumption of highly salted food. The developed prediction model showed good predictive performance in terms of discrimination (optimism-corrected c-index: 0.768) and calibration (Nam and d'Agostino's χ(2) test: 14.78; p values = 0.06). Estimates of the 10-year probability of gastric cancer occurrence ranged from 0.04% (0.02, 0.1) to 14.87% (8.96, 24.14) for men and from 0.03% (0.02, 0.07) to 4.91% (2.71, 8.81) for women. In conclusion, we developed a risk prediction model for gastric cancer that combines clinical and biological markers. It might prompt individuals to modify their lifestyle habits, attend regular check-up visits or participate in screening programmes.
    No preview · Article · Aug 2015 · International Journal of Cancer
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    ABSTRACT: Many potentially modifiable risk factors for prostate cancer are also associated with prostate cancer screening, which may induce a bias in epidemiologic studies. We investigated the associations of body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)), smoking, and alcohol consumption with risk of fatal prostate cancer in Asian countries where prostate cancer screening is not widely utilized. Analysis included 18 prospective cohort studies conducted during 1963-2006 across 6 countries in southern and eastern Asia that are part of the Asia Cohort Consortium. Body mass index, smoking, and alcohol intake were determined by questionnaire at baseline, and cause of death was ascertained through death certificates. Analysis included 522,736 men aged 54 years, on average, at baseline. During 4.8 million person-years of follow-up, there were 634 prostate cancer deaths (367 prostate cancer deaths across the 11 cohorts with alcohol data). In Cox proportional hazards analyses of all cohorts in the Asia Cohort Consortium, prostate cancer mortality was not significantly associated with obesity (body mass index >25: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.85, 1.36), ever smoking (HR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.84, 1.21), or heavy alcohol intake (HR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.74, 1.35). Differences in prostate cancer screening and detection probably contribute to differences in the association of obesity, smoking, or alcohol intake with prostate cancer risk and mortality between Asian and Western populations and thus require further investigation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail:
    Full-text · Article · Aug 2015 · American journal of epidemiology

Publication Stats

9k Citations
1,760.31 Total Impact Points


  • 2013-2016
    • The University of Tokyo
      白山, Tōkyō, Japan
  • 2004-2015
    • National Cancer Center, Japan
      • Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening
      Edo, Tōkyō, Japan
  • 2006-2013
    • University of Tsukuba
      • Institute of Community Medicine
      Tsukuba, Ibaraki-ken, Japan
  • 2012
    • Osaka City University
      Ōsaka, Ōsaka, Japan
  • 2010
    • National Center for Global Health and Medicine in Japan
      Edo, Tokyo, Japan
  • 2008
    • Sendai University
      Sendai, Kagoshima, Japan
  • 2007
    • Saga University
      Сага Япония, Saga Prefecture, Japan
  • 1993-2005
    • Aichi Cancer Center
      Ōsaka, Ōsaka, Japan
  • 2003-2004
    • National Cancer Research Institute
      Londinium, England, United Kingdom
  • 2001
    • Nagoya University
      • Graduate School of Medicine
      Nagoya, Aichi, Japan