John E Gimnig

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Атланта, Michigan, United States

Are you John E Gimnig?

Claim your profile

Publications (72)272.8 Total impact

  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background: Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) have been scaled up for malaria prevention in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there are few studies on the benefit of implementing IRS in areas with moderate to high coverage of ITNs. We evaluated the impact of an IRS program on malaria related outcomes in western Kenya, an area of intense perennial malaria transmission and moderate ITN coverage (55-65% use of any net the previous night). Methods: The Kenya Division of Malaria Control, with support from the US President's Malaria Initiative, conducted IRS in one lowland endemic district with moderate coverage of ITNs. Surveys were conducted in the IRS district and a neighboring district before IRS, after one round of IRS in July-Sept 2008 and after a second round of IRS in April-May 2009. IRS was conducted with pyrethroid insecticides. At each survey, 30 clusters were selected for sampling and within each cluster, 12 compounds were randomly selected. The primary outcomes measured in all residents of selected compounds included malaria parasitemia, clinical malaria (P. falciparum infection plus history of fever) and anemia (Hb<8) of all residents in randomly selected compounds. At each survey round, individuals from the IRS district were matched to those from the non-IRS district using propensity scores and multivariate logistic regression models were constructed based on the matched dataset. Results: At baseline and after one round of IRS, there were no differences between the two districts in the prevalence of malaria parasitemia, clinical malaria or anemia. After two rounds of IRS, the prevalence of malaria parasitemia was 6.4% in the IRS district compared to 16.7% in the comparison district (OR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.22-0.59, p<0.001). The prevalence of clinical malaria was also lower in the IRS district (1.8% vs. 4.9%, OR = 0.37, 95% CI = 0.20-0.68, p = 0.001). The prevalence of anemia was lower in the IRS district but only in children under 5 years of age (2.8% vs. 9.3%, OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.13-0.71, p = 0.006). Multivariate models incorporating both IRS and ITNs indicated that both had an impact on malaria parasitemia and clinical malaria but the independent effect of ITNs was reduced in the district that had received two rounds of IRS. There was no statistically significant independent effect of ITNs on the prevalence of anemia in any age group. Conclusions: Both IRS and ITNs are effective tools for reducing malaria burden and when implemented in an area of moderate to high transmission with moderate ITN coverage, there may be an added benefit of IRS. The value of adding ITNs to IRS is less clear as their benefits may be masked by IRS. Additional monitoring of malaria control programs that implement ITNs and IRS concurrently is encouraged to better understand how to maximize the benefits of both interventions, particularly in the context of increasing pyrethroid resistance.
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2016 · PLoS ONE
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background: An initial study of genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum in Asembo, western Kenya showed that the parasite maintained overall genetic stability 5 years after insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) introduction in 1997. This study investigates further the genetic diversity of P. falciparum 10 years after initial ITN introduction in the same study area and compares this with two other neighbouring areas, where ITNs were introduced in 1998 (Gem) and 2004 (Karemo). Methods: From a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2007, 235 smear-positive blood samples collected from children ≤15-year-old in the original study area and two comparison areas were genotyped employing eight neutral microsatellites. Differences in multiple infections, allele frequency, parasite genetic diversity and parasite population structure between the three areas were assessed. Further, molecular data reported previously (1996 and 2001) were compared to the 2007 results in the original study area Asembo. Results: Overall proportion of multiple infections (MA) declined with time in the original study area Asembo (from 95.9 %-2001 to 87.7 %-2007). In the neighbouring areas, MA was lower in the site where ITNs were introduced in 1998 (Gem 83.7 %) compared to where they were introduced in 2004 (Karemo 96.7 %) in 2007. Overall mean allele count (MAC ~ 2.65) and overall unbiased heterozygosity (He ~ 0.77) remained unchanged in 1996, 2001 and 2007 in Asembo and was the same level across the two neighbouring areas in 2007. Overall parasite population differentiation remained low over time and in the three areas at FST < 0.04. Both pairwise and multilocus linkage disequilibrium showed limited to no significant association between alleles in Asembo (1996, 2001 and 2007) and between three areas. Conclusions: This study showed the P. falciparum high genetic diversity and parasite population resilience on samples collected 10 years apart and in different areas in western Kenya. The results highlight the need for long-term molecular monitoring after implementation and use of combined and intensive prevention and intervention measures in the region. Keywords: Plasmodium falciparum, Population structure, Genetic diversity, ITNs, Transmission
    Full-text · Article · Dec 2015 · Malaria Journal
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Introduction: The voltage gated sodium channel mutation Vgsc-1014S (kdr-east) was first reported in Kenya in 2000 and has since been observed to occur at high frequencies in the local Anopheles gambiae s.s. Population: The mutation Vgsc-1014F has never been reported from An. gambiae Complex complex mosquitoes in Kenya. Findings: Molecularly confirmed An. gambiae s.s. (hereafter An. gambiae) and An. arabiensis collected from 4 different parts of western Kenya were genotyped for kdr from 2011 to 2013. Vgsc-1014F was observed to have emerged, apparently, simultaneously in both An. gambiae and An. arabiensis in 2012. A portion of the samples were submitted for sequencing in order to confirm the Vgsc-1014F genotyping results. The resulting sequence data were deposited in GenBank (Accession numbers: KR867642-KR867651, KT758295-KT758303). A single Vgsc-1014F haplotype was observed suggesting, a common origin in both species. Conclusion: This is the first report of Vgsc-1014F in Kenya. Based on our samples, the mutation is present in low frequencies in both An. gambiae and An. arabiensis. It is important that we start monitoring relative frequencies of the two kdr genes so that we can determine their relative importance in an area of high insecticide treated net ownership.
    Full-text · Article · Dec 2015 · Parasites & Vectors
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Although it is well known that drug pressure selects for drug-resistant parasites, the role of transmission reduction by insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) on drug resistance remains unclear. In this study, the drug resistance profile of current and previous first-line anti-malarials in Kenya was assessed within the context of drug policy change and scale-up of ITNs. National first-line treatment changed from chloroquine (CQ) to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) in 1998 and to artemether-lumefantrine (AL) in 2004. ITN use was scaled-up in the Asembo, Gem and Karemo areas of western Kenya in 1997, 1999 and 2006, respectively. Smear-positive samples (N = 253) collected from a 2007 cross-sectional survey among children in Asembo, Gem and Karemo were genotyped for mutations in pfcrt and pfmdr1 (CQ), dhfr and dhps (SP), and at pfmdr-N86 and the gene copy number in pfmdr1 (lumefantrine). Results were compared among the three geographic areas in 2007 and to retrospective molecular data from children in Asembo in 2001. In 2007, 69 and 85% of samples harboured the pfmdr1-86Y mutation and dhfr/dhps quintuple mutant, respectively, with no significant differences by study area. However, the prevalence of the pfcrt-76T mutation differed significantly among areas (p <0.02), between 76 and 94%, with the highest prevalence in Asembo. Several 2007 samples carried mutations at dhfr-164L, dhps-436A, or dhps-613T. From 2001 to 2007, there were significant increases in the pfcrt-76T mutation from 82 to 94% (p <0.03), dhfr/dhps quintuple mutant from 62 to 82% (p <0.03), and an increase in the septuple CQ and SP combined mutant haplotype, K 76 Y 86 I 51 R 59 N 108 G 437 E 540 , from 28 to 39%. The prevalence of the pfmdr1-86Y mutation remained unchanged. All samples were single copy for pfmdr1. Molecular markers associated with lumefantrine resistance were not detected in 2007. More recent samples will be needed to detect any selective effects by AL. The prevalence of CQ and SP resistance markers increased from 2001 to 2007 in the absence of changes in transmission intensity. In 2007, only the prevalence of pfcrt-76T mutation differed among study areas of varying transmission intensity. Resistant parasites were most likely selected by sustained drug pressure from the continued use of CQ, SP, and mechanistically similar drugs, such as amodiaquine and cotrimoxazole. There was no clear evidence that differences in transmission intensity, as a result of ITN scale-up, influenced the prevalence of drug resistance molecular markers.
    Full-text · Article · Dec 2015 · Malaria Journal

  • No preview · Article · Jul 2015 · PLoS ONE
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: In the past decade, there has been rapid scale-up of insecticide-based malaria vector control in the context of integrated vector management (IVM) according to World Health Organization recommendations. Endemic countries have deployed indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets as hallmark vector control interventions. This paper discusses the successes and continued challenges and the way forward for the IRS programme in Malawi. The National Malaria Control Programme in Malawi, with its efforts to implement an integrated approach to malaria vector control, was the 'case' for this study. Information sources included all available data and accessible archived documentary records on IRS in Malawi. A methodical assessment of published and unpublished documents was conducted via a literature search of online electronic databases. Malawi has implemented IRS as the main malaria transmission-reducing intervention. However, pyrethroid and carbamate resistance in malaria vectors has been detected extensively across the country and has adversely affected the IRS programme. Additionally, IRS activities have been characterized by substantial inherent logistical and technical challenges culminating into missed targets. As a consequence, programmatic IRS operations have been scaled down from seven districts in 2010 to only one district in 2014. The future of the IRS programme in Malawi is uncertain due to limited funding, high cost of alternative insecticides and technical resource challenges being experienced in the country. The availability of a long-lasting formulation of the organophosphate pirimiphos-methyl makes the re-introduction of IRS a possibility and may be a useful approach for the management of pyrethroid resistance. Implementing the IVM strategy, advocating for sustainable domestic funding, including developing an insecticide resistance monitoring and management plan and vector surveillance guidelines will be pivotal in steering entomologic monitoring and future vector control activities in Malawi.
    Full-text · Article · Jun 2015 · Malaria Journal
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The durability of Long Lasting Insecticidal Nets (LLINs) in field conditions is of great importance for malaria prevention and control efforts; however, the physical integrity of the net fabric is not well understood making it challenging to determine overall effectiveness of nets as they age. The 2011 World Health Organization Pesticide Evaluation Scheme (WHOPES) guidelines provide a simple, standardized method using a proportional hole index (PHI) for assessing net damage with the intent to provide national malaria control programs with guidelines to assess the useful life of LLINS and estimate the rate of replacement.
    Full-text · Article · Jun 2015 · PLoS ONE
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Measurement of densities of host-seeking malaria vectors is important for estimating levels of disease transmission, for appropriately allocating interventions, and for quantifying their impact. The gold standard for estimating mosquito-human contact rates is the human landing catch (HLC), where human volunteers catch mosquitoes that land on their exposed body parts. This approach necessitates exposure to potentially infectious mosquitoes, and is very labour intensive. There are several safer and less labour-intensive methods, with Centers for Disease Control light traps (LT) placed indoors near occupied bed nets being the most widely used. This paper presents analyses of 13 studies with paired mosquito collections of LT and HLC to evaluate these methods for their consistency in sampling indoor-feeding mosquitoes belonging to the two major taxa of malaria vectors across Africa, the Anopheles gambiae sensu lato complex and the Anopheles funestus s.l. group. Both overall and study-specific sampling efficiencies of LT compared with HLC were computed, and regression methods that allow for the substantial variations in mosquito counts made by either method were used to test whether the sampling efficacy varies with mosquito density. Generally, LT were able to collect similar numbers of mosquitoes to the HLC indoors, although the relative sampling efficacy, measured by the ratio of LT:HLC varied considerably between studies. The overall best estimate for An. gambiae s.l. was 1.06 (95% credible interval: 0.68-1.64) and for An. funestus s.l. was 1.37 (0.70-2.68). Local calibration exercises are not reproducible, since only in a few studies did LT sample proportionally to HLC, and there was no geographical pattern or consistent trend with average density in the tendency for LT to either under- or over-sample. LT are a crude tool at best, but are relatively easy to deploy on a large scale. Spatial and temporal variation in mosquito densities and human malaria transmission exposure span several orders of magnitude, compared to which the inconsistencies of LT are relatively small. LT, therefore, remain an invaluable and safe alternative to HLC for measuring indoor malaria transmission exposure in Africa.
    Full-text · Article · Jun 2015 · Malaria Journal
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: A malaria cohort study was conducted among young children in Machinga District, Malawi, following distribution of insecticide-treated bednets (ITN) in May 2012. To assess ITN use, two independently sampled subsets of children (211 during survey 1 [December 2012-January 2013] and 325 during survey 2 [September-October 2013]) were randomly selected to compare the proportions of positive and negative agreement between caregiver verbal reports at monthly interviews with visual observation of the ITN at home visits. Caregiver-reported ITN use was consistently high during both surveys (96.0% and 98.1%, respectively; P = 0.17). Home visit-based ITN use fell significantly (P < 0.001) from survey 1 (98.6%) to survey 2 (88.6%). The proportions of positive agreement between caregiver report and home visit in the first and second surveys were 98.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 97.6-99.8%) and 93.3% (95% CI 91.2-95.3%), respectively. The proportions of negative agreement in the first and second surveys were 28.6% (95% CI 0-75.0%) and 20.0% (95% CI 0.1-35.0%), respectively. ITN use by children was high in Machinga District, and caregiver reports and home visits with visual confirmation of the net demonstrated a high level of agreement for use of ITNs, but a low level of agreement when ITNs were not used. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
    No preview · Article · Feb 2015 · The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) are the cornerstone of malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa but their effectiveness may be compromised by the spread of pyrethroid resistance among malaria vectors. The objective of this investigation was to assess the effectiveness of ITNs to prevent malaria in an area of Malawi with moderate pyrethroid resistance.Methods One deltamethrin ITN was distributed in the study area for every two individuals in each household plus one extra ITN for households with an odd number of residents. A fixed cohort of 1,199 children aged six to 59 months was seen monthly for one year and at sick visits to measure malaria infection and use of ITNs. Insecticide resistance among malaria vectors was measured. The effect of ITN use on malaria incidence was assessed, adjusting for potential confounders using generalized estimating equations accounting for repeated measures.ResultsThere were 1,909 infections with Plasmodium falciparum over 905 person-years at risk (PYAR), resulting in an observed incidence of 2.1 infections per person-year (iPPY). ITNs were used during 97% of the PYAR. The main vector was Anopheles funestus: mortality in WHO tube assays after exposure to 0.05% deltamethrin was 38% (95% confidence interval (CI) 29¿47), and resistance was due to elevated oxidase enzymes. After adjusting for potential confounders, the incidence of malaria infection among ITN users was 1.7 iPPY (95% CI 1.5-2.1) and among non-bed net users was 2.6 iPPY (95% CI 2.0-3.3). Use of ITNs reduced the incidence of malaria infection by 30% (rate ratio 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-0.8) compared to no bed nets.ConclusionITNs significantly reduced the incidence of malaria infection in children in an area with moderate levels of pyrethroid resistance and considerable malaria transmission. This is the first study to show that ITNs provide protection in areas where pyrethroid-resistant An. funestus is the major malaria vector. Malaria control programmes should continue to distribute and promote ITNs in areas with low to moderate pyrethroid resistance; however, insecticide resistance may intensify further and it is not known whether ITNs will remain effective at higher levels of resistance. There is an urgent need to identify or develop new insecticides and technologies to limit the vulnerability of ITNs to insecticide resistance.
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2015 · Malaria Journal
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Monitoring local malaria transmission intensity is essential for planning evidence-based control strategies and evaluating their impact over time. Anti-malarial antibodies provide information on cumulative exposure and have proven useful, in areas where transmission has dropped to low sustained levels, for retrospectively reconstructing the timing and magnitude of transmission reduction. It is unclear whether serological markers are also informative in high transmission settings, where interventions may reduce transmission, but to a level where considerable exposure continues. This study was conducted through ongoing KEMRI and CDC collaboration. Asembo, in Western Kenya, is an area where intense malaria transmission was drastically reduced during a 1997-1999 community-randomized, controlled insecticide-treated net (ITN) trial. Two approaches were taken to reconstruct malaria transmission history during the period from 1994 to 2009. First, point measurements were calculated for seroprevalence, mean antibody titre, and seroconversion rate (SCR) against three Plasmodium falciparum antigens (AMA-1, MSP-119, and CSP) at five time points for comparison against traditional malaria indices (parasite prevalence and entomological inoculation rate). Second, within individual post-ITN years, age-stratified seroprevalence data were analysed retrospectively for an abrupt drop in SCR by fitting alternative reversible catalytic conversion models that allowed for change in SCR. Generally, point measurements of seroprevalence, antibody titres and SCR produced consistent patterns indicating that a gradual but substantial drop in malaria transmission (46-70%) occurred from 1994 to 2007, followed by a marginal increase beginning in 2008 or 2009. In particular, proportionate changes in seroprevalence and SCR point estimates (relative to 1994 baseline values) for AMA-1 and CSP, but not MSP-119, correlated closely with trends in parasite prevalence throughout the entire 15-year study period. However, retrospective analyses using datasets from 2007, 2008 and 2009 failed to detect any abrupt drop in transmission coinciding with the timing of the 1997-1999 ITN trial. In this highly endemic area, serological markers were useful for generating accurate point estimates of malaria transmission intensity, but not for retrospective analysis of historical changes. Further investigation, including exploration of different malaria antigens and/or alternative models of population seroconversion, may yield serological tools that are more informative in high transmission settings.
    Full-text · Article · Nov 2014 · Malaria Journal
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Eliminating malaria requires vector control interventions that dramatically reduce adult mosquito population densities and survival rates. Indoor applications of insecticidal nets and sprays are effective against an important minority of mosquito species that rely heavily upon human blood and habitations for survival. However, complementary approaches are needed to tackle a broader diversity of less human-specialized vectors by killing them at other resource targets. Impacts of strategies that target insecticides to humans or animals can be rationalized in terms of biological coverage of blood resources, quantified as proportional coverage of all blood resources mosquito vectors utilize. Here, this concept is adapted to enable impact prediction for diverse vector control strategies based on measurements of utilization rates for any definable, targetable resource subset, even if that overall resource is not quantifiable. The usefulness of this approach is illustrated by deriving utilization rate estimates for various blood, resting site, and sugar resource subsets from existing entomological survey data. Reported impacts of insecticidal nets upon human-feeding vectors, and insecticide-treated livestock upon animal-feeding vectors, are approximately consistent with model predictions based on measured utilization rates for those human and animal blood resource subsets. Utilization rates for artificial sugar baits compare well with blood resources, and are consistent with observed impact when insecticide is added. While existing data was used to indirectly measure utilization rates for a variety of resting site subsets, by comparison with measured rates of blood resource utilization in the same settings, current techniques for capturing resting mosquitoes underestimate this quantity, and reliance upon complex models with numerous input parameters may limit the applicability of this approach. While blood and sugar consumption can be readily quantified using existing methods for detecting natural markers or artificial tracers, improved techniques for labelling mosquitoes, or other arthropod pathogen vectors, will be required to assess vector control measures which target them when they utilize non-nutritional resources such as resting, oviposition, and mating sites.
    Full-text · Article · Aug 2014 · Malaria Journal
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background It has been speculated that widespread and sustained use of insecticide treated bed nets (ITNs) for over 10 years in Asembo, western Kenya, may have selected for changes in the location (indoor versus outdoor) and time (from late night to earlier in the evening) of biting of the predominant species of human malaria vectors (Anopheles funestus, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and Anopheles arabiensis). Methods Mosquitoes were collected by human landing catches over a six week period in June and July, 2011, indoors and outdoors from 17 h to 07 h, in 75 villages in Asembo, western Kenya. Collections were separated by hour of the night, and mosquitoes were identified to species and tested for sporozoite infection with Plasmodium falciparum. A subset was dissected to determine parity. Human behavior (time going to bed and rising, time spent indoors and outdoors) was quantified by cross-sectional survey. Data from past studies of a similar design and in nearby settings, but conducted before the ITN scale up commenced in the early 2000s, were compared with those from the present study. Results Of 1,960 Anopheles mosquitoes collected in 2011, 1,267 (64.6%) were morphologically identified as An. funestus, 663 (33.8%) as An. gambiae sensu lato (An. gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis combined), and 30 (1.5%) as other anophelines. Of the 663 An. gambiae s.l. collected, 385 were successfully tested by PCR among which 235 (61.0%) were identified as An. gambiae s.s. while 150 (39.0%) were identified as An. arabiensis. Compared with data collected before the scale-up of ITNs, daily entomological inoculation rates (EIRs) were consistently lower for An. gambiae s.l. (indoor EIR = 0.432 in 1985–1988, 0.458 in 1989–1990, 0.023 in 2011), and An. arabiensis specifically (indoor EIR = 0.532 in 1989–1990, 0.039 in 2009, 0.006 in 2011) but not An. funestus (indoor EIR = 0.029 in 1985–1988, 0.147 in 1989–1990, 0.010 in 2009 and 0.103 in 2011). Sporozoite rates were lowest in 2009 but rose again in 2011. Compared with data collected before the scale-up of ITNs, An. arabiensis and An. funestus were more likely to bite outdoors and/or early in the evening (p < 0.001 for all comparisons). However, when estimates of human exposure that would occur indoors (πi) or while asleep (πs) in the absence of an ITN were generated based on human behavioral patterns, the changes were modest with >90% of exposure of non-ITN users to mosquito bites occurring while people were indoors in all years. The proportion of bites occurring among non-ITN users while they were asleep was ≥90% for all species except for An. arabiensis. For this species, 97% of bites occurred while people were asleep in 1989–1990 while in 2009 and 2011, 80% and 84% of bites occurred while people were asleep for those not using ITNs. Assuming ITNs prevent a theoretical maximum of 93.7% of bites, it was estimated that 64-77% of bites would have occurred among persons using nets while they were asleep in 1989–1990, while 20-52% of bites would have occurred among persons using nets while they were asleep in 2009 and 2011. Conclusions This study found no evidence to support the contention that populations of Anopheles vectors of malaria in Asembo, western Kenya, are exhibiting departures from the well-known pattern of late night, indoor biting characteristic of these typically highly anthropophilic species. While outdoor, early evening transmission likely does occur in western Kenya, the majority of transmission still occurs indoors, late at night. Therefore, malaria control interventions such as ITNs that aim to reduce indoor biting by mosquitoes should continue to be prioritized.
    Full-text · Article · Aug 2014 · Parasites & Vectors
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Using mobile devices, such as personal digital assistants (PDAs), smartphones, tablet computers, etc., to electronically collect malaria-related field data is the way for the field questionnaires in the future. This case study seeks to design a generic survey framework PDA-based geo-tagged malaria-related data collection tool (PGMS) that can be used not only for large-scale community-level geo-tagged electronic malaria-related surveys, but also for a wide variety of electronic data collections of other infectious diseases. The framework includes two parts: the database designed for subsequent cross-sectional data analysis and the customized programs for the six study sites (two in Kenya, three in Indonesia, and one in Tanzania). In addition to the framework development, we also present our methods used when configuring and deploying the PDAs to 1) reduce data entry errors, 2) conserve battery power, 3) field install the programs onto dozens of handheld devices, 4) translate electronic questionnaires into local languages, 5) prevent data loss, and 6) transfer data from PDAs to computers for future analysis and storage. Since 2008, PGMS has successfully accomplished quite a few surveys that recorded 10,871 compounds and households, 52,126 persons, and 17,100 bed nets from the six sites. These numbers are still growing.
    Full-text · Article · Jul 2014 · The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background Predictive models of malaria vector larval habitat locations may provide a basis for understanding the spatial determinants of malaria transmission. Methods We used four landscape variables (topographic wetness index [TWI], soil type, land use-land cover, and distance to stream) and accumulated precipitation to model larval habitat locations in a region of western Kenya through two methods: logistic regression and random forest. Additionally, we used two separate data sets to account for variation in habitat locations across space and over time. Results Larval habitats were more likely to be present in locations with a lower slope to contributing area ratio (i.e. TWI), closer to streams, with agricultural land use relative to nonagricultural land use, and in friable clay/sandy clay loam soil and firm, silty clay/clay soil relative to friable clay soil. The probability of larval habitat presence increased with increasing accumulated precipitation. The random forest models were more accurate than the logistic regression models, especially when accumulated precipitation was included to account for seasonal differences in precipitation. The most accurate models for the two data sets had area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.864 and 0.871, respectively. TWI, distance to the nearest stream, and precipitation had the greatest mean decrease in Gini impurity criteria in these models. Conclusions This study demonstrates the usefulness of random forest models for larval malaria vector habitat modeling. TWI and distance to the nearest stream were the two most important landscape variables in these models. Including accumulated precipitation in our models improved the accuracy of larval habitat location predictions by accounting for seasonal variation in the precipitation. Finally, the sampling strategy employed here for model parameterization could serve as a framework for creating predictive larval habitat models to assist in larval control efforts.
    Full-text · Article · Jun 2014 · International Journal of Health Geographics
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Eliminating malaria from highly endemic settings will require unprecedented levels of vector control. To suppress mosquito populations, vector control products targeting their blood hosts must attain high biological coverage of all available sources, rather than merely high demographic coverage of a targeted resource subset, such as humans while asleep indoors. Beyond defining biological coverage in a measurable way, the proportion of blood meals obtained from humans and the proportion of bites upon unprotected humans occurring indoors also suggest optimal target product profiles for delivering insecticides to humans or livestock. For vectors that feed only occasionally upon humans, preferred animal hosts may be optimal targets for mosquito-toxic insecticides, and vapour-phase insecticides optimized to maximize repellency, rather than toxicity, may be ideal for directly protecting people against indoor and outdoor exposure. However, for vectors that primarily feed upon people, repellent vapour-phase insecticides may be inferior to toxic ones and may undermine the impact of contact insecticides applied to human sleeping spaces, houses or clothing if combined in the same time and place. These concepts are also applicable to other mosquito-borne anthroponoses so that diverse target species could be simultaneously controlled with integrated vector management programmes. Measurements of these two crucial mosquito behavioural parameters should now be integrated into programmatically funded, longitudinal, national-scale entomological monitoring systems to inform selection of available technologies and investment in developing new ones.
    Full-text · Article · Apr 2014 · Malaria Journal
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Historically, the malaria vectors in western Kenya have been Anopheles funestus, Anopheles gambiae s.s., and Anopheles arabiensis. Of these species, An. funestus populations declined the most after the introduction of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) in the 1990s in Asembo, and collections of An. funestus in the region remained low until at least 2008. Contrary to findings during the early years of ITN use in Asembo, the majority of the Anopheles collected here in 2010 and 2011 were An. funestus. Female An. funestus had characteristically high Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite rates and showed nearly 100% anthropophily. Female An. funestus were found more often indoors than outdoors and had relatively low mortality rates during insecticide bioassays. Together, these results are of serious concern for public health in the region, indicating that An. funestus may once again be contributing significantly to the transmission of malaria in this region despite the widespread use of ITNs/long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs).
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2014 · The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The spatial distribution of malaria prevalence is often heterogeneous across a landscape, differing among households within a community. This is especially true in areas where community-wide malaria interventions are implemented and reduce malaria prevalence in most households. Understanding the spatial heterogeneity of malaria prevalence is especially important in this context of public health interventions in order to identify the factors that limit an intervention’s effectiveness. In the case of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) and long lasting impregnated nets (LLINs), it is vital to understand the factors that influence the spatial distribution of the vectors. Using data from indoor resting mosquito collections and larval habitat surveys, we quantified the relative contributions of larval habitat spatial distribution and ITN/LLIN use on the spatial distributions of the malaria vector populations in a holoendemic region of western Kenya. We sampled 526 houses and collected 227 An. gambiae s.l. and 125 An. funestus females. Ownership and use of LLINs was high, but at least one person did not sleep under a bed net in 21% of the houses sampled. Larval Anopheles habitats were more likely to be found in areas of agricultural land use, closer to streams, and where topography favored the pooling of runoff water. Houses where at least one person did not sleep under an LLIN had more Anopheles females than houses where everyone slept under a bed net. Additionally, the number of An. gambiae s.l. females increased with the number of larval habitats within 50m of a house. While ITNs and LLINs have been shown to be effective at reducing malaria vector populations across broad scales, our results highlight fine scale factors influencing where vectors persist.
    No preview · Conference Paper · Nov 2013
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: While insecticide treated nets (ITNs) and other strategies have reduced the burden of malaria, the disease remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality across sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a promising new malaria prevention tool, the insecticide treated wall liner (ITWL). Its manufacturer projects a useful life of 3-4 years. The efficacy of ITWL is based on a 6-month cluster randomized trial by Gimnig et al of 1,592 children (aged 6 months-11 years) in 12 rural villages in Nyanza Province, Kenya during 2010. Control villages had only ITNs; experimental villages had both ITNs and ITWLs. The cost-effectiveness analysis considered unit costs and quantities of each input, demographic records, and published literature. The adjusted protective efficacy for ITWL was 38% (95% CI: 23%-50%), or 1.1 infection averted per child per year. The added cost of ITWL was US$64.23 per person covered, consisting of ITWL's projected factory price (44.9%), shipping and offloading (5.1%), management and supervisory personnel (24.5%), installation materials (0.4%), local transportation (13.9%), and installation labor (11.1%). Under the least favorable assumption (ITWL protection ends at 3 months, the average follow up in the previous trial), the cost per discounted life-year gained (DLYG) is US$4,837. Under the most favorable assumption (ITWL remains effective for 4 years), the cost per DLYG is US$482. Kenya's per capita GDP in 2010 was US$795. WHO considers interventions with cost-effectiveness ratios below a country's GDP highly cost-effective. As long as ITWL remains effective for at least 2.2 years, it will be highly cost-effective.
    No preview · Conference Paper · Nov 2013
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Long-lasting insecticide-treated mosquito nets (LLINs) are a primary malaria prevention strategy in sub-Saharan Africa. However, emergence of insecticide resistance threatens the effectiveness of LLINs. Cross-sectional surveys of LLINs were conducted in houses of seven and four villages in Gem and Bungoma Districts in western Kenya, respectively. Condition (number and area of holes in the nets), number and species of mosquitoes resting inside them, and insecticidal activity of nets were quantified. Mosquitoes collected inside nets were allowed to lay eggs and progeny tested for susceptibility to deltamethrin and permethrin, pyrethoids commonly deployed in LLINs in western Kenya. In Gem, 83.3% of nets were less than three years old and 32.4% had at least one hole of any size; while in Bungoma, 92% were less than three years old and 48% had at least one hole. No anopheline and five Culex spp. mosquitoes were found resting inside nets in Gem regardless of the number and size of holes, while 552 Anopheles gambiae s.l., five Anopheles funestus s.l. and 137 Culex spp. were in nets in Bungoma. The number of mosquitoes resting inside nets increased with hole areas >50 cm in Bungoma. In WHO resistance assays, f1 offspring of samples collected in nets in Bungoma were 94 and 65% resistant to deltamethrin and permethrin, respectively. Nets from Bungoma retained strong activity against a susceptible laboratory strain, but not against f1 offspring of field-collected An. gambiae s.s. All An. gambiae s.s. samples collected in nets were homozygous for the kdr genotype L1014S. In areas with pyrethroid resistant vectors, LLINs with modest hole areas permit mosquito entry and feeding, providing little protection against the vectors. LLIN formulations develop large holes within three years of use, diminishing their presupposed lifetime effectiveness.
    Full-text · Article · Oct 2013 · Malaria Journal

Publication Stats

3k Citations
272.80 Total Impact Points

Institutions

  • 2003-2015
    • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
      • Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria
      Атланта, Michigan, United States
    • University of Amsterdam
      Amsterdamo, North Holland, Netherlands
  • 2003-2006
    • Kenyatta University
      Nairoba, Nairobi Area, Kenya
  • 2001-2002
    • Kenya Medical Research Institute
      • Centre for Global Health Research
      Nairoba, Nairobi Area, Kenya
    • University of Nairobi
      Nairoba, Nairobi Area, Kenya