Peter M Rothwell

Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust, Oxford, England, United Kingdom

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Publications (539)5057.41 Total impact

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    ABSTRACT: Background and purpose: Elevated plasma homocysteine levels are associated with stroke. However, this might be a reflection of bias or confounding because trials have failed to demonstrate an effect from homocysteine lowering in stroke patients, although a possible benefit has been suggested in lacunar stroke. Genetic studies could potentially overcome these issues because genetic variants are inherited randomly and are fixed at conception. Therefore, we tested the homocysteine levels-associated genetic variant MTHFR C677T for association with magnetic resonance imaging-confirmed lacunar stroke and compared this with associations with large artery and cardioembolic stroke subtypes. Methods: We included 1359 magnetic resonance imaging-confirmed lacunar stroke cases, 1824 large artery stroke cases, 1970 cardioembolic stroke cases, and 14 448 controls, all of European ancestry. Furthermore, we studied 3670 ischemic stroke patients in whom white matter hyperintensities volume was measured. We tested MTHFR C677T for association with stroke subtypes and white matter hyperintensities volume. Because of the established association of homocysteine with hypertension, we additionally stratified for hypertension status. Results: MTHFR C677T was associated with lacunar stroke (P=0.0003) and white matter hyperintensity volume (P=0.04), but not with the other stroke subtypes. Stratifying the lacunar stroke cases for hypertension status confirmed this association in hypertensive individuals (P=0.0002), but not in normotensive individuals (P=0.30). Conclusions: MTHFR C677T was associated with magnetic resonance imaging-confirmed lacunar stroke, but not large artery or cardioembolic stroke. The association may act through increased susceptibility to, or interaction with, high blood pressure. This heterogeneity of association might explain the lack of effect of lowering homocysteine in secondary prevention trials which included all strokes.
    Full-text · Article · Feb 2016 · Stroke
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    Feigin VL · Krishnamurthi RV · Parmar P · Norrving B · Mensah GA · Bennett DA · Barker-Collo S · Moran AE · Sacco RL · Truelsen T · [...] · Coresh J · Lefondulq K · Corriere MA · Mainoo N · Schwartz SM · Chugh S · Fung T · Byers TE · Rocca WA · Lo W. ·

    Full-text · Dataset · Jan 2016
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    Barker-Collo S · Bennett DA · Krishnamurthi RV · Parmar P · Feigin VL · Naghavi M · Forouzanfar MH · Johnson CO · Nguyen G · Mensah GA · [...] · Lefondulq K · Corriere MA · Mainoo N · Sacco RL · Schwartz SM · Chugh S · Fung T · Byers TE · Rocca WA · Lo W. ·

    Full-text · Dataset · Jan 2016
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    Feigin VL · Mensah GA · Norrving B · Murray CJ · Roth GA · GBD 2013 Stroke Panel Experts Group · Meretoja A · Stavreski B · Anderson CS · Pearse E · [...] · Gillum RF · Basu S · Schwartz SM · Chugh S · Fung T · Vos T · Byers TE · Sampson UK · Rocca WA · Lo W. ·

    Full-text · Dataset · Jan 2016
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    Krishnamurthi RV · deVeber G · Feigin VL · Barker-Collo S · Fullerton H · Mackay MT · O'Callahan F · Lindsay MP · Kolk A · Lo W · [...] · Beauchamp NJ · Sacco RL · Gillum RF · Basu S · Schwartz SM · Chugh S · Fung T · Byers TE · Sampson UK · Rocca WA ·

    Full-text · Dataset · Jan 2016
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    ABSTRACT: Background and purpose: Although a genetic contribution to ischemic stroke is well recognized, only a handful of stroke loci have been identified by large-scale genetic association studies to date. Hypothesizing that genetic effects might be stronger for early- versus late-onset stroke, we conducted a 2-stage meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies, focusing on stroke cases with an age of onset <60 years. Methods: The discovery stage of our genome-wide association studies included 4505 cases and 21 968 controls of European, South-Asian, and African ancestry, drawn from 6 studies. In Stage 2, we selected the lead genetic variants at loci with association P<5×10(-6) and performed in silico association analyses in an independent sample of ≤1003 cases and 7745 controls. Results: One stroke susceptibility locus at 10q25 reached genome-wide significance in the combined analysis of all samples from the discovery and follow-up stages (rs11196288; odds ratio =1.41; P=9.5×10(-9)). The associated locus is in an intergenic region between TCF7L2 and HABP2. In a further analysis in an independent sample, we found that 2 single nucleotide polymorphisms in high linkage disequilibrium with rs11196288 were significantly associated with total plasma factor VII-activating protease levels, a product of HABP2. Conclusions: HABP2, which encodes an extracellular serine protease involved in coagulation, fibrinolysis, and inflammatory pathways, may be a genetic susceptibility locus for early-onset stroke.
    No preview · Article · Jan 2016 · Stroke
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    ABSTRACT: Background: reliable delirium risk stratification will aid recognition, anticipation and prevention and will facilitate targeting of resources in clinical practice as well as identification of at-risk patients for research. Delirium risk scores have been derived for acute medicine, but none has been prospectively validated in external cohorts. We therefore aimed to determine the reliability of externally derived risk scores in a consecutive cohort of older acute medicine patients. Methods: consecutive patients aged ≥65 over two 8-week periods (2010, 2012) were screened prospectively for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), and delirium was diagnosed using the DSM IV criteria. The reliability of existing delirium risk scores derived in acute medicine cohorts and simplified for use in routine clinical practice (USA, n = 2; Spain, n = 1; Indonesia, n = 1) was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Delirium was defined as prevalent (on admission), incident (occurring during admission) and any (prevalent + incident) delirium. Results: among 308 consecutive patients aged ≥65 (mean age/SD = 81/8 years, 164 (54%) female), existing delirium risk scores had AUCs for delirium similar to those reported in their original internal validations ranging from 0.69 to 0.76 for any delirium and 0.73 to 0.83 for incident delirium. All scores performed better than chance but no one score was clearly superior. Conclusions: externally derived delirium risk scores performed well in our independent acute medicine population with reliability unaffected by simplification and might therefore facilitate targeting of multicomponent interventions in routine clinical practice.
    Preview · Article · Jan 2016 · Age and Ageing
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    Full-text · Article · Dec 2015 · The Lancet Neurology
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    ABSTRACT: Objective: For 3,670 stroke patients from the United Kingdom, United States, Australia, Belgium, and Italy, we performed a genome-wide meta-analysis of white matter hyperintensity volumes (WMHV) on data imputed to the 1000 Genomes reference dataset to provide insights into disease mechanisms. Methods: We first sought to identify genetic associations with white matter hyperintensities in a stroke population, and then examined whether genetic loci previously linked to WMHV in community populations are also associated in stroke patients. Having established that genetic associations are shared between the 2 populations, we performed a meta-analysis testing which associations with WMHV in stroke-free populations are associated overall when combined with stroke populations. Results: There were no associations at genome-wide significance with WMHV in stroke patients. All previously reported genome-wide significant associations with WMHV in community populations shared direction of effect in stroke patients. In a meta-analysis of the genome-wide significant and suggestive loci (p < 5 × 10(-6)) from community populations (15 single nucleotide polymorphisms in total) and from stroke patients, 6 independent loci were associated with WMHV in both populations. Four of these are novel associations at the genome-wide level (rs72934505 [NBEAL1], p = 2.2 × 10(-8); rs941898 [EVL], p = 4.0 × 10(-8); rs962888 [C1QL1], p = 1.1 × 10(-8); rs9515201 [COL4A2], p = 6.9 × 10(-9)). Conclusions: Genetic associations with WMHV are shared in otherwise healthy individuals and patients with stroke, indicating common genetic susceptibility in cerebral small vessel disease.
    Preview · Article · Dec 2015 · Neurology
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    ABSTRACT: Objectives We aimed to determine age-specific rates of delirium and associated factors in acute medicine, and the impact of delirium on mortality and re-admission on long-term follow-up. Design Observational study. Consecutive patients over two 8-week periods (2010, 2012) were screened for delirium on admission, using the confusion assessment method (CAM), and reviewed daily thereafter. Delirium diagnosis was made using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual Fourth Edition (DSM IV) criteria. For patients aged ≥65 years, potentially important covariables identified in previous studies were collected with follow-up for death and re-admission until January 2014. Participants 503 consecutive patients (age median=72, range 16–99 years, 236 (48%) male). Setting Acute general medicine. Results Delirium occurred in 101/503 (20%) (71 on admission, 30 during admission, 17 both), with risk increasing from 3% (6/195) at <65 years to 14% (10/74) for 65–74 years and 36% (85/234) at ≥75 years (p<0.0001). Among 308 patients aged >65 years, after adjustment for age, delirium was associated with previous falls (OR=2.47, 95% CI 1.45 to 4.22, p=0.001), prior dementia (2.08, 1.10 to 3.93, p=0.024), dependency (2.58, 1.48 to 4.48, p=0.001), low cognitive score (5.00, 2.50 to 9.99, p<0.0001), dehydration (3.53, 1.91 to 6.53, p<0.0001), severe illness (1.98, 1.17 to 3.38, p=0.011), pressure sore risk (5.56, 2.60 to 11.88, p<0.0001) and infection (4.88, 2.85 to 8.36, p<0.0001). Patients with delirium were more likely to fall (OR=4.55, 1.47 to 14.05, p=0.008), be incontinent of urine (3.76, 2.15 to 6.58, p<0.0001) or faeces (3.49, 1.81–6.73, p=0.0002) and be catheterised (5.08, 2.44 to 10.54, p<0.0001); and delirium was associated with stay >7 days (2.82, 1.68 to 4.75, p<0.0001), death (4.56, 1.71 to 12.17, p=0.003) and an increase in dependency among survivors (2.56, 1.37 to 4.76, p=0.003) with excess mortality still evident at 2-year follow-up. Patients with delirium had fewer re-admissions within 30-days (OR=0.32, 95% CI 0.09 to 1.1, p=0.07) and in total (median, IQR total re-admissions=0, 0–1 vs 1, 0–2, p=0.01). Conclusions Delirium affected a fifth of acute medical admissions and a third of those aged ≥75 years, and was associated with increased mortality, institutionalisation and dependency, but not with increased risk of re-admission on follow-up.
    Preview · Article · Nov 2015 · BMJ Open
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    Feigin VL · Mensah GA · Norrving B · Murray CJ · Roth GA · GBD 2013 Stroke Panel Experts Group · Meretoja A · Stavreski B · Anderson CS · Pearse E · [...] · Gillum RF · Basu S · Schwartz SM · Chugh S · Fung T · Vos T · Byers TE · Sampson UK · Rocca WA · Lo W. ·
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    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: World mapping is an important tool to visualize stroke burden and its trends in various regions and countries. OBJECTIVES: To show geographic patterns of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) and their trends for ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke in the world for 1990-2013. METHODOLOGY: Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs and YLDs were estimated following the general approach of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 with several important improvements in methods. Data were updated for mortality (through April 2014) and stroke incidence, prevalence, case fatality and severity through 2013. Death was estimated using an ensemble modeling approach. A new software package, DisMod-MR 2.0, was used as part of a custom modeling process to estimate YLDs. All rates were age-standardized to new GBD estimates of global population. All estimates have been computed with 95% uncertainty intervals. RESULTS: Age-standardized incidence, mortality, prevalence and DALYs/YLDs declined over the period from 1990 to 2013. However, the absolute number of people affected by stroke has substantially increased across all countries in the world over the same time period, suggesting that the global stroke burden continues to increase. There were significant geographical (country and regional) differences in stroke burden in the world, with the majority of the burden borne by low- and middle-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Global burden of stroke has continued to increase in spite of dramatic declines in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality rates and disability. Population growth and aging have played an important role in the observed increase in stroke burden.
    Full-text · Article · Oct 2015 · Neuroepidemiology
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    Krishnamurthi RV · deVeber G · Feigin VL · Barker-Collo S · Fullerton H · Mackay MT · O'Callahan F · Lindsay MP · Kolk A · Lo W · [...] · Beauchamp NJ · Sacco RL · Gillum RF · Basu S · Schwartz SM · Chugh S · Fung T · Byers TE · Sampson UK · Rocca WA ·
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    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: There is increasing recognition of stroke as an important contributor to childhood morbidity and mortality. Current estimates of global childhood stroke burden and its temporal trends are sparse. Accurate and up-to-date estimates of childhood stroke burden are important for planning research and the resulting evidence-based strategies for stroke prevention and management. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ischemic stroke (IS), hemorrhagic stroke (HS) and all stroke types combined globally from 1990 to 2013. METHODOLOGY: Stroke prevalence, mortality and DALYs were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease 2013 methods. All available data on stroke-related incidence, prevalence, excess mortality and deaths were collected. Statistical models and country-level covariates were employed to produce comprehensive and consistent estimates of prevalence and mortality. Stroke-specific disability weights were used to estimate years lived with disability and DALYs. Means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for prevalence, mortality and DALYs. The median of the percent change and 95% UI were determined for the period from 1990 to 2013. RESULTS: In 2013, there were 97,792 (95% UI 90,564-106,016) prevalent cases of childhood IS and 67,621 (95% UI 62,899-72,214) prevalent cases of childhood HS, reflecting an increase of approximately 35% in the absolute numbers of prevalent childhood strokes since 1990. There were 33,069 (95% UI 28,627-38,998) deaths and 2,615,118 (95% UI 2,265,801-3,090,822) DALYs due to childhood stroke in 2013 globally, reflecting an approximately 200% decrease in the absolute numbers of death and DALYs in childhood stroke since 1990. Between 1990 and 2013, there were significant increases in the global prevalence rates of childhood IS, as well as significant decreases in the global death rate and DALYs rate of all strokes in those of age 0-19 years. While prevalence rates for childhood IS and HS decreased significantly in developed countries, a decline was seen only in HS, with no change in prevalence rates of IS, in developing countries. The childhood stroke DALY rates in 2013 were 13.3 (95% UI 10.6-17.1) for IS and 92.7 (95% UI 80.5-109.7) for HS per 100,000. While the prevalence of childhood IS compared to childhood HS was similar globally, the death rate and DALY rate of HS was 6- to 7-fold higher than that of IS. In 2013, the prevalence rate of both childhood IS and HS was significantly higher in developed countries than in developing countries. Conversely, both death and DALY rates for all stroke types were significantly lower in developed countries than in developing countries in 2013. Men showed a trend toward higher childhood stroke death rates (1.5 (1.3-1.8) per 100,000) than women (1.1 (0.9-1.5) per 100,000) and higher childhood stroke DALY rates (120.1 (100.8-143.4) per 100,000) than women (90.9 (74.6-122.4) per 100,000) globally in 2013. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, between 1990 and 2013, there was a significant increase in the absolute number of prevalent childhood strokes, while absolute numbers and rates of both deaths and DALYs declined significantly. The gap in childhood stroke burden between developed and developing countries is closing; however, in 2013, childhood stroke burden in terms of absolute numbers of prevalent strokes, deaths and DALYs remained much higher in developing countries. There is an urgent need to address these disparities with both global and country-level initiatives targeting prevention as well as improved access to acute and chronic stroke care.
    Full-text · Article · Oct 2015 · Neuroepidemiology
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    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Accurate information on stroke burden in men and women are important for evidence-based healthcare planning and resource allocation. Previously, limited research suggested that the absolute number of deaths from stroke in women was greater than in men, but the incidence and mortality rates were greater in men. However, sex differences in various metrics of stroke burden on a global scale have not been a subject of comprehensive and comparable assessment for most regions of the world, nor have sex differences in stroke burden been examined for trends over time. METHODS: Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and healthy years lost due to disability were estimated as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 Study. Data inputs included all available information on stroke incidence, prevalence and death and case fatality rates. Analysis was performed separately by sex and 5-year age categories for 188 countries. Statistical models were employed to produce globally comprehensive results over time. All rates were age-standardized to a global population and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were computed. FINDINGS: In 2013, global ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) incidence (per 100,000) in men (IS 132.77 (95% UI 125.34-142.77); HS 64.89 (95% UI 59.82-68.85)) exceeded those of women (IS 98.85 (95% UI 92.11-106.62); HS 45.48 (95% UI 42.43-48.53)). IS incidence rates were lower in 2013 compared with 1990 rates for both sexes (1990 male IS incidence 147.40 (95% UI 137.87-157.66); 1990 female IS incidence 113.31 (95% UI 103.52-123.40)), but the only significant change in IS incidence was among women. Changes in global HS incidence were not statistically significant for males (1990 = 65.31 (95% UI 61.63-69.0), 2013 = 64.89 (95% UI 59.82-68.85)), but was significant for females (1990 = 64.892 (95% UI 59.82-68.85), 2013 = 45.48 (95% UI 42.427-48.53)). The number of DALYs related to IS rose from 1990 (male = 16.62 (95% UI 13.27-19.62), female = 17.53 (95% UI 14.08-20.33)) to 2013 (male = 25.22 (95% UI 20.57-29.13), female = 22.21 (95% UI 17.71-25.50)). The number of DALYs associated with HS also rose steadily and was higher than DALYs for IS at each time point (male 1990 = 29.91 (95% UI 25.66-34.54), male 2013 = 37.27 (95% UI 32.29-45.12); female 1990 = 26.05 (95% UI 21.70-30.90), female 2013 = 28.18 (95% UI 23.68-33.80)). INTERPRETATION: Globally, men continue to have a higher incidence of IS than women while significant sex differences in the incidence of HS were not observed. The total health loss due to stroke as measured by DALYs was similar for men and women for both stroke subtypes in 2013, with HS higher than IS. Both IS and HS DALYs show an increasing trend for both men and women since 1990, which is statistically significant only for IS among men. Ongoing monitoring of sex differences in the burden of stroke will be needed to determine if disease rates among men and women continue to diverge. Sex disparities related to stroke will have important clinical and policy implications that can guide funding and resource allocation for national, regional and global health programs.
    Full-text · Article · Oct 2015 · Neuroepidemiology
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    Krishnamurthi RV · Moran AE · Feigin VL · Barker-Collo S · Norrving B · Mensah GA · Taylor S · Naghavi M · Forouzanfar MH · Nguyen G · [...] · Sacco RL · Gillum RF · Basu S · Schwartz SM · Chugh S · Fung T · Byers TE · Sampson UK · Rocca WA · Lo W. ·
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    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Recent evidence suggests that stroke is increasing as a cause of morbidity and mortality in younger adults, where it carries particular significance for working individuals. Accurate and up-to-date estimates of stroke burden are important for planning stroke prevention and management in younger adults. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and their trends for total, ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) in the world for 1990-2013 in adults aged 20-64 years. METHODOLOGY: Stroke prevalence, mortality and DALYs were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 methods. All available data on rates of stroke incidence, excess mortality, prevalence and death were collected. Statistical models were used along with country-level covariates to estimate country-specific stroke burden. Stroke-specific disability weights were used to compute years lived with disability and DALYs. Means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for prevalence, mortality and DALYs. The median of the percent change and 95% UI were determined for the period from 1990 to 2013. RESULTS: In 2013, in younger adults aged 20-64 years, the global prevalence of HS was 3,725,085 cases (95% UI 3,548,098-3,871,018) and IS was 7,258,216 cases (95% UI 6,996,272-7,569,403). Globally, between 1990 and 2013, there were significant increases in absolute numbers and prevalence rates of both HS and IS for younger adults. There were 1,483,707 (95% UI 1,340,579-1,658,929) stroke deaths globally among younger adults but the number of deaths from HS (1,047,735 (95% UI 945,087-1,184,192)) was significantly higher than the number of deaths from IS (435,972 (95% UI 354,018-504,656)). There was a 20.1% (95% UI -23.6 to -10.3) decline in the number of total stroke deaths among younger adults in developed countries but a 36.7% (95% UI 26.3-48.5) increase in developing countries. Death rates for all strokes among younger adults declined significantly in developing countries from 47 (95% UI 42.6-51.7) in 1990 to 39 (95% UI 35.0-43.8) in 2013. Death rates for all strokes among younger adults also declined significantly in developed countries from 33.3 (95% UI 29.8-37.0) in 1990 to 23.5 (95% UI 21.1-26.9) in 2013. A significant decrease in HS death rates for younger adults was seen only in developed countries between 1990 and 2013 (19.8 (95% UI 16.9-22.6) and 13.7 (95% UI 12.1-15.9)) per 100,000). No significant change was detected in IS death rates among younger adults. The total DALYs from all strokes in those aged 20-64 years was 51,429,440 (95% UI 46,561,382-57,320,085). Globally, there was a 24.4% (95% UI 16.6-33.8) increase in total DALY numbers for this age group, with a 20% (95% UI 11.7-31.1) and 37.3% (95% UI 23.4-52.2) increase in HS and IS numbers, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1990 and 2013, there were significant increases in prevalent cases, total deaths and DALYs due to HS and IS in younger adults aged 20-64 years. Death and DALY rates declined in both developed and developing countries but a significant increase in absolute numbers of stroke deaths among younger adults was detected in developing countries. Most of the burden of stroke was in developing countries. In 2013, the greatest burden of stroke among younger adults was due to HS. While the trends in declining death and DALY rates in developing countries are encouraging, these regions still fall far behind those of developed regions of the world. A more aggressive approach toward primary prevention and increased access to adequate healthcare services for stroke is required to substantially narrow these disparities.
    Full-text · Article · Oct 2015 · Neuroepidemiology
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    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Accurate information on stroke burden in men and women are important for evidence-based healthcare planning and resource allocation. Previously, limited research suggested that the absolute number of deaths from stroke in women was greater than in men, but the incidence and mortality rates were greater in men. However, sex differences in various metrics of stroke burden on a global scale have not been a subject of comprehensive and comparable assessment for most regions of the world, nor have sex differences in stroke burden been examined for trends over time. METHODS: Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and healthy years lost due to disability were estimated as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 Study. Data inputs included all available information on stroke incidence, prevalence and death and case fatality rates. Analysis was performed separately by sex and 5-year age categories for 188 countries. Statistical models were employed to produce globally comprehensive results over time. All rates were age-standardized to a global population and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were computed. FINDINGS: In 2013, global ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) incidence (per 100,000) in men (IS 132.77 (95% UI 125.34-142.77); HS 64.89 (95% UI 59.82-68.85)) exceeded those of women (IS 98.85 (95% UI 92.11-106.62); HS 45.48 (95% UI 42.43-48.53)). IS incidence rates were lower in 2013 compared with 1990 rates for both sexes (1990 male IS incidence 147.40 (95% UI 137.87-157.66); 1990 female IS incidence 113.31 (95% UI 103.52-123.40)), but the only significant change in IS incidence was among women. Changes in global HS incidence were not statistically significant for males (1990 = 65.31 (95% UI 61.63-69.0), 2013 = 64.89 (95% UI 59.82-68.85)), but was significant for females (1990 = 64.892 (95% UI 59.82-68.85), 2013 = 45.48 (95% UI 42.427-48.53)). The number of DALYs related to IS rose from 1990 (male = 16.62 (95% UI 13.27-19.62), female = 17.53 (95% UI 14.08-20.33)) to 2013 (male = 25.22 (95% UI 20.57-29.13), female = 22.21 (95% UI 17.71-25.50)). The number of DALYs associated with HS also rose steadily and was higher than DALYs for IS at each time point (male 1990 = 29.91 (95% UI 25.66-34.54), male 2013 = 37.27 (95% UI 32.29-45.12); female 1990 = 26.05 (95% UI 21.70-30.90), female 2013 = 28.18 (95% UI 23.68-33.80)). INTERPRETATION: Globally, men continue to have a higher incidence of IS than women while significant sex differences in the incidence of HS were not observed. The total health loss due to stroke as measured by DALYs was similar for men and women for both stroke subtypes in 2013, with HS higher than IS. Both IS and HS DALYs show an increasing trend for both men and women since 1990, which is statistically significant only for IS among men. Ongoing monitoring of sex differences in the burden of stroke will be needed to determine if disease rates among men and women continue to diverge. Sex disparities related to stroke will have important clinical and policy implications that can guide funding and resource allocation for national, regional and global health programs.
    Full-text · Article · Oct 2015 · Neuroepidemiology
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    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Global stroke epidemiology is changing rapidly. Although age-standardized rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past 2 decades, the absolute numbers of people who have a stroke every year, and live with the consequences of stroke or die from their stroke, are increasing. Regular updates on the current level of stroke burden are important for advancing our knowledge on stroke epidemiology and facilitate organization and planning of evidence-based stroke care. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) and their trends for ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. METHODOLOGY: Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs and YLDs were estimated using all available data on mortality and stroke incidence, prevalence and excess mortality. Statistical models and country-level covariate data were employed, and all rates were age-standardized to a global population. All estimates were produced with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: In 2013, there were globally almost 25.7 million stroke survivors (71% with IS), 6.5 million deaths from stroke (51% died from IS), 113 million DALYs due to stroke (58% due to IS) and 10.3 million new strokes (67% IS). Over the 1990-2013 period, there was a significant increase in the absolute number of DALYs due to IS, and of deaths from IS and HS, survivors and incident events for both IS and HS. The preponderance of the burden of stroke continued to reside in developing countries, comprising 75.2% of deaths from stroke and 81.0% of stroke-related DALYs. Globally, the proportional contribution of stroke-related DALYs and deaths due to stroke compared to all diseases increased from 1990 (3.54% (95% UI 3.11-4.00) and 9.66% (95% UI 8.47-10.70), respectively) to 2013 (4.62% (95% UI 4.01-5.30) and 11.75% (95% UI 10.45-13.31), respectively), but there was a diverging trend in developed and developing countries with a significant increase in DALYs and deaths in developing countries, and no measurable change in the proportional contribution of DALYs and deaths from stroke in developed countries. CONCLUSION: Global stroke burden continues to increase globally. More efficient stroke prevention and management strategies are urgently needed to halt and eventually reverse the stroke pandemic, while universal access to organized stroke services should be a priority.
    Full-text · Article · Oct 2015 · Neuroepidemiology
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    Full-text · Dataset · Oct 2015
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    ABSTRACT: Background: Prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasing, due partly to the aging population. The Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation Treatment of the Aged (BAFTA) Trial, published in 2007, provided strong evidence of the effectiveness of warfarin at age≥80 years, but the impact on incidence of AF-related stroke and peripheral embolic vascular events (PVEs) is uncertain. Methods: We studied age-specific incidence and outcome of all AF-related incident strokes and systemic emboli from 2002-2012 in the Oxford Vascular Study. Results: Of 3096 acute cerebral or peripheral vascular events, 748 (24.2%) were AF-related. Of the 597 disabling/fatal incident ischaemic strokes, 369 occurred at age ≥80 years, of which 124 (33.6%) were in non-anticoagulated patients with known prior AF. There was no reduction in incident AF-related events after 2007 at all ages (n=231 vs 211; adjusted RR=1.11, 0.91-1.36, p=0.29) or at age ≥80 (137 vs 135, RR=1.15, 0.94-1.40, p=0.17). Scope for improved prevention at older ages was considerable. Among 208 patients with incident AF-related events at age ≥80 and known prior AF, only 19 (9.1%) were anticoagulated. Of the 189 patients not anticoagulated, 166 (87.8%) had no major disability prior to the event and 167 (88·4%) had a high embolism risk score, of whom 139 (83.2%) were also at low risk of complications. Yet, 125/167 (74.9%) were dead or institutionalised after the event. Potentially preventable embolic events outnumbered warfarin-related intracerebral haemorrhages by about 15-fold (280 vs 19), rising to 50-fold (189 vs 4) at age ≥80 years. Conclusion: We found no reduction in incidence of AF-related vascular events since publication of the BAFTA trial. A third of all disabling/fatal strokes occur in non-anticoagulated patients with known prior AF.
    Full-text · Article · Oct 2015 · Journal of neurology, neurosurgery, and psychiatry
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    ABSTRACT: Background and purpose: Cognitive assessment is recommended after stroke but there are few data on the applicability of short cognitive tests to the full spectrum of patients. We therefore determined the rates, causes, and associates of untestability in a population-based study of all transient ischemic attack (TIA) and stroke. Methods: Patients with TIA or stroke prospectively recruited (2002-2007) into the Oxford Vascular Study had ≥1 short cognitive test (mini-mental state examination, telephone interview of cognitive status, Montreal cognitive assessment, and abbreviated mental test score) at baseline and on follow-up to 5 years. Results: Among 1097 consecutive assessed survivors (mean: age/SD, 74.8/12.1 years; 378 TIA), numbers testable with a short cognitive test at baseline, 1, 6, 12, and 60 months were 835/1097 (76%), 778/947 (82%), 756/857 (88%), 692/792 (87%), and 472/567 (83%). Eighty-eight percent (331/378) of assessed patients with TIA were testable at baseline compared with only 46% (133/290) of major stroke (P<0.001). Untestability was also associated with older age, premorbid dependency, death on follow-up, and with both pre- and postevent dementia (all P<0.01). Untestability (and problems with testing) were commonly caused by acute stroke effects at baseline (153/262 [58%]: dysphasia/anarthria/hemiparesis=84 [32%], drowsiness=58 [22%], and acute confusion=11 [4%]), whereas sensory deficits caused relatively more problems with testing at later time points (24/63 [38%] at 5 years). Conclusions: Substantial numbers of patients with TIA and stroke are untestable with short cognitive tests. Future studies should report data on untestable patients and those with problems with testing in whom the likelihood of dementia is high.
    No preview · Article · Oct 2015 · Stroke
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    ABSTRACT: Background and purpose: Copeptin, the c-terminal portion of provasopressin, is a useful prognostic marker in patients after myocardial infarction and heart failure. More recently, high levels of copeptin have also been associated with worse functional outcome and increased mortality within the first year after ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA). However, to date, there are no published data on whether copeptin predicts long-term risk of vascular events after TIA and stroke. Methods: We measured copeptin levels in consecutive patients with TIA or ischemic stroke in a population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study) recruited from 2002 to 2007 and followed up to 2014. Associations with risk of recurrent vascular events were determined by Cox-regression. Results: During ≈6000 patient-years in 1076 patients, there were 357 recurrent vascular events, including 174 ischemic strokes. After adjustment for age, sex, and risk factors, copeptin was predictive of recurrent vascular events (adjusted hazard ratio per SD, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-1.64; P=0.0001), vascular death (1.85; 1.60-2.14; P<0.0001), all-cause death (1.75; 1.58-1.93; P<0.0001), and recurrent ischemic stroke (1.22; 1.04-1.44; P=0.017); and improved model-discrimination significantly: net reclassification improvement for recurrent vascular events (32%; P<0.0001), vascular death (55%; P<0.0001), death (66%; P<0.0001), and recurrent stroke (16%; P=0.044). The predictive value of copeptin was largest in patients with cardioembolic index events (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-2.20 versus 1.31, 1.14-1.50 in noncardioembolic stroke; P=0.0025). In patients with cardioembolic stroke, high copeptin levels were associated with a 4-fold increased risk of vascular events within the first year of follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.02; 95% confidence interval, 2.13-7.70). Conclusions: In patients with TIA and ischemic stroke, copeptin predicted recurrent vascular events and death, particularly after cardioembolic TIA/stroke. Further validation is required, in particular, in studies using more extensive cardiac evaluation.
    No preview · Article · Oct 2015 · Stroke

Publication Stats

27k Citations
5,057.41 Total Impact Points

Institutions

  • 2008-2015
    • Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust
      • Department of Clinical Neurology
      Oxford, England, United Kingdom
    • Universitätsklinikum Tübingen
      Tübingen, Baden-Württemberg, Germany
  • 1999-2015
    • University of Oxford
      • Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences
      Oxford, England, United Kingdom
  • 2012
    • St George's, University of London
      • Stroke and Dementia Research Centre
      Londinium, England, United Kingdom
  • 2011
    • The Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
      Newcastle-on-Tyne, England, United Kingdom
  • 1994-2009
    • Western General Hospital
      Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom
  • 2007
    • VU University Medical Center
      • Department of Neurology
      Amsterdamo, North Holland, Netherlands
    • The University of Calgary
      Calgary, Alberta, Canada
  • 2006
    • Utrecht University
      Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
    • The University of Western Ontario
      London, Ontario, Canada
  • 2005
    • University of Toronto
      • Department of Medical Imaging
      Toronto, Ontario, Canada
  • 1994-1996
    • The University of Edinburgh
      • Division of Clinical Neurosciences
      Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom