[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Accurate and early identification of high-risk surgical patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is important for triage and risk stratification. The objective of the present study was to develop a new and improved clinical rule to predict mortality in patients following surgical treatment for PPU.
Design: nationwide cohort study based on prospectively collected data. Setting: thirty-five hospitals in Denmark. Patients: a total of 2668 patients surgically treated for gastric or duodenal PPU between 1 February 2003 and 31 August 2009. Outcome measure: 30-day mortality.
We derived a new clinical prediction rule for 30-day mortality and evaluated and compared its prognostic performance with the American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) and Boey scores. A total of 708 patients (27%) died within 30 days of surgery. The Peptic Ulcer Perforation (PULP) score - comprised eight variables with an adjusted odds ratio of more than 1.28: 1) age > 65 years, 2) active malignant disease or AIDS, 3) liver cirrhosis, 4) steroid use, 5) time from perforation to admission > 24 h, 6) pre-operative shock, 7) serum creatinine > 130 μM, and 8) the four levels of the ASA score (from 2 to 5). The score predicted mortality well (area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) 0.83). It performed considerably better than the Boey score (AUC 0.70) and better than the ASA score alone (AUC 0.78).
The PULP score accurately predicts 30-day mortality in patients operated for PPU and can assist in risk stratification and triage.
Full-text · Article · Dec 2011 · Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The incidence of bacteraemia has increased considerably during the last decades. This may be related to population ageing, increased use of invasive procedures, and increased ascertainment of bacteraemia. Generalized additive and generalized linear models were used to analyse the impact of four successive improvements in blood culture methodology on the recovery of prevalent blood culture isolates while simultaneously controlling for underlying time trend and seasonal variation. Between 1981 and 2006, 20 091 bacteraemias comprising 22 800 blood culture isolates were diagnosed. The changes in methodology increased the recovery of some bacterial groups; the greatest impact was observed for Enterobacteriaceae, pneumococci and Staphylococcus aureus whereas recovery of β-haemolytic streptococci, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, other Gram-negative aerobes, and fungi was not affected. Changes in blood culture methodology should be taken into account when assessing time trends of bacteraemia.
Full-text · Article · May 2011 · Epidemiology and Infection
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Few data exist on the long-term prognosis of patients with chronic primary chronic immune thrombocytopenia (ITP). We examined the risk of infections, hemorrhage resulting in hospitalization, hematologic malignancies, and total and cause-specific mortality among patients with ITP compared with the general population. We used population-based medical databases to identify 407 patients with primary chronic ITP diagnosed during 1996 to 2007 and 4069 general population members individually matched on age, sex, and comorbidity level. We used Cox regression analysis to estimate rate ratios (RRs) adjusted for age (≤ 60 or > 60 years), sex, calendar year, and level of comorbidity. The adjusted 1-year RR of infection was 4.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.3-6.1) for patients with chronic ITP compared with the general population cohort. The adjusted RR decreased to 1.8 (95% CI, 1.3-2.5) for the second to fifth year of follow-up. The adjusted 5-year RR was 3.2 (95% CI, 1.2-9.0) for hospitalized intracranial hemorrhage, 4.4 (95% CI, 2.3-8.3) for other hospitalized hemorrhages, and 4.7 (95% CI, 1.7-12.7) for hematologic malignancy. The 5-year all-cause mortality RR was 2.3 (95% CI, 1.8-3.0). In summary, primary chronic ITP was associated with substantially increased long-term risk of infections, hemorrhagic episodes requiring hospitalization, hematologic malignancies, and mortality.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: We conducted a nationwide cohort study of adult Danish patients with primary chronic immune thrombocytopenia (cITP) to examine selected patient and clinical characteristics as predictors for splenectomy. We analyzed data from the Danish National Patient Registry and patient medical records from 1996 to 2007. Using Cox regression analyses, we calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) for splenectomy. We included 371 adult cITP patients. Of these, 87 patients (23%) underwent a splenectomy during a median of 3.6 years of follow-up. The majority (84%) of cITP patients who underwent splenectomy had splenectomy within the first year after cITP diagnosis. Predictors for splenectomy included age ≤ 75 years (adjusted 1-year IRR = 6.79 (95% CI, 2.10-21.90)) at least one platelet count ≤ 30 × 10(9)/L (i.e., high disease activity; adjusted 1-year IRR = 2.67 (95% CI, 1.37-5.22)) during follow-up and year of cITP diagnosis in early period (1996-2001; adjusted 1 year IRR = 2.37 (95% CI, 1.46-3.85)). Presence of chronic comorbidity was associated with lower rates of splenectomy (adjusted 1 year IRR = 0.58 (95% CI, 0.33-1.05)). Our findings suggest that high disease activity and absence of chronic comorbidity may be associated with higher rates of splenectomy, and that contraindications for splenectomy (i.e., patients' perceived frailty) cause the physicians to use the procedure cautiously.
Full-text · Article · Feb 2011 · Annals of Hematology
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Few population-based studies exist on incidence, risk of infection and mortality in hairy cell leukaemia (HCL).
We used population-based medical databases to identify 209 patients who were diagnosed with HCL in the period from January 1997 to August 2007 in Denmark. An age- and sex-matched comparison cohort of 2,090 persons was selected from the general population. We computed the incidence of HCL using demographic data. Hospitalizations with pneumonia and bacteraemia were determined from the Danish National Patient Registry. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of infection and mortality ratios (MRR) adjusting for age, sex and comorbidity.
The HCL incidence rates were 1.97 (95% confidence interval 1.51-2.53) and 5.37 (4.57-6.28) per million person-years for women and men, respectively. During a median follow-up of 4.5 years, 48 HCL patients were hospitalized with pneumonia or bacteraemia. The adjusted RR of infection was 8.04 (4.99-12.95) the first year after diagnosis and 1.17 (0.71-1.94) for the remaining follow-up period. The adjusted MRRs were 4.26 (2.61-6.96) and 1.12 (0.75-1.65) the first year after diagnosis and the remaining follow-up period, respectively.
In the second and subsequent years after HCL diagnosis, the risk of infection and mortality was similar to that of the general population.
Full-text · Article · Dec 2010 · Danish medical bulletin
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: It is unknown whether a prior diagnosis of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) affects cancer survival.
We linked data on 1652 cases of MGUS diagnosed during 1978-2006 in North Jutland County, Denmark with the Danish Cancer Registry and the National Patient Registry to obtain information on survival of cancer patients with a previous MGUS compared with that of cancer patients without MGUS, matched on cancer type, age, sex and year of diagnosis. Stratified Cox regression analysis was used to compute mortality rate ratios controlling for the matching factors and comorbidity.
We included 323 cancer patients with previously detected MGUS and 3154 comparison cancer patients without MGUS. The 5-year survival probability was 26.2% (95% CI, 21.2%-31.5%) in cancer patients with MGUS and 30.5% (28.8%-32.1%) in cancer patients without MGUS. The adjusted mortality rate ratio (MRR) was=0.94 (95% CI, 0.82-1.09). Survival following a diagnosis of multiple myeloma, the cancer site of main interest, did not differ according to a preceding MGUS diagnosis. Among patients with immune-related cancers (liver, cervix, malignant melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancers), a preceding MGUS diagnosis was associated with reduced survival (adjusted MRR=1.49 (95% CI: 0.96-2.31)). In contrast, for other non-haematological cancers a prior MGUS diagnosis was associated with a lower MRR (0.78 (95% CI, 0.63-0.96)).
Our study does not indicate that previously detected MGUS is a prognostic factor for cancer survival in general.
No preview · Article · Dec 2010 · European Journal of Internal Medicine
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: We quantified and differentiated reticulin and collagen content in bone marrow specimens from chronic immune thrombocytopenic (ITP) patients and examined the correlation between some clinical characteristics and the fibrosis grading. Through the Danish National Patient Registry, we identified 378 patients with chronic ITP from 1997 until 2007. Of these, 253 (67%) had undergone at least one bone marrow biopsy, and we retrieved the bone marrow specimens from 187 (74%). We graded the bone marrow content of reticulin and collagen according to the Thiele scale (Grade 0-3). We also retrieved information on patients' clinical characteristics. We examined the prevalence of bone marrow fibrosis grading > 0 by patients' age (≤ 75 years and > 75 years), sex, platelet count at baseline (< 30 × 10⁹/L, and ≥ 30 × 10⁹/L), splenomegaly, hepatomegaly, and medications. In total 75 chronic ITP patients (40%) had a bone marrow grading >0. Of these, 72 (39%) had Grade 1 reticulin fibers present. Only three patients (< 2%) had collagen fibers present: two had Grade 2 and one had Grade 3. The prevalence of bone marrow grading > 0 was lower in patients aged > 75 years than ≤ 75 years (prevalence ratio = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.36-1.15) and lower in men than women (prevalence ratio = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.45-1.09), while a baseline platelet count ≥ 30 × 10⁹/L was associated with a higher prevalence of grading > 0 (prevalence ratio = 1.24, 95% CI: 0.81-1.86). Thus, bone marrow reticulin and collagen content in chronic ITP patients may be associated with some clinical characteristics.
Full-text · Article · Dec 2010 · American Journal of Hematology
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Patients with multiple myeloma are at increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE), but little information is available on VTE risk in patients with the precursor condition monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS).
To evaluate the risk of VTE and its impact on mortality in patients with MGUS.
We identified 1610 patients with MGUS and no prior diagnosis of VTE during the 1978-2005 period in North Jutland County, Denmark. We used the Danish Central Population Registry to select 16,100 general population comparison cohort members with no prior VTE diagnosis, matched with the MGUS patients by age, sex, and comorbidity. Follow-up data on VTE incidence in the two groups were obtained from the Danish National Patient Registry covering all Danish hospitals. Time-varying Cox regression analysis was used to compute the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of VTE and the mortality rate ratio (MRR) for MGUS patients who developed VTE compared to MGUS patients without VTE.
In the MGUS cohort, 50 VTE events were identified during 12,594 person-years (PY) of follow-up, corresponding to an incidence rate of 4.0 VTEs/1000 PY. The IRR for VTE among MGUS patients compared to the comparison cohort was 1.37 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.88). Of the 50 MGUS patients with VTE, one was later diagnosed with malignant transformation. The adjusted MRR for MGUS patients with VTE compared to MGUS patients without VTE was 1.94 (95% CI: 1.36-2.77).
MGUS is a risk factor for VTE, and VTE is a marker for increased mortality among MGUS patients.
No preview · Article · Oct 2010 · European Journal Of Haematology
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Bias analysis methods are developed for application to 2 x 2 tables, which may be crude or stratified data. Methods for application to associations adjusted for multiple covariates, such as associations from regression modeling, are rarely seen. We have developed probabilistic methods to evaluate bias from disease misclassification or an unmeasured confounder that can be applied to adjusted estimates of association.
Rather than applying bias correction methods that rearrange data within 2 x 2 tables, we have applied them to bias factors directly. We illustrate the methods by application to two pharmacoepidemiology problems.
In example one, the adjusted odds ratio associating glucocorticoid use with the rate of basal cell carcinoma was 1.15 (95%CI 1.07, 1.25). With bias analysis to account for differential disease misclassification, the median odds ratio was 1.32 and the 95% simulation limits were 1.16 and 1.56. In example two, the adjusted odds ratio associating concomitant use of clopidogrel and proton pump inhibitors with recurrent myocardial infarction was 1.21 (95%CI 0.90, 1.61). With bias analysis to account for confounding by smoking, which was unmeasured, the median odds ratio was 1.15 with 95% simulation interval 0.85 to 1.55.
Methods to apply probabilistic bias analysis to adjusted estimates of association can be implemented if a bias factor can be calculated directly from the bias model. This strategy requires that the bias is independent of confounding by measured variables, or requires that the dependence be incorporated into the bias model, as illustrated in an extension of the second example.
No preview · Article · Jun 2010 · Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to examine cognitive function in patients with early breast cancer before and after adjuvant chemotherapy or 6 months of tamoxifen. We performed a population-based study in the county of North Jutland, Denmark, including 120 women aged <60 years who received adjuvant chemotherapy with seven cycles of cyclophosphamide, epirubicin and fluoruracil or adjuvant tamoxifen for 6 months for early breast cancer from 2004 to 2006. They were compared with an aged-matched group of 208 women without previous cancer selected randomly from the same population. Data were collected before start of adjuvant treatment and after 6 months by neuropsychological tests and questionnaires to evaluate cognitive function, quality of life and psychological distress. Neuropsychological tests did not reveal any differences in cognitive function between breast cancer patients after chemotherapy and healthy controls. Patients rated their own cognitive functions as improved after 6 months, and patients, who did not receive adjuvant medical treatment, reached the same level as controls within 6 months. Patients receiving chemotherapy or tamoxifen were up to three times more likely than controls to rate themselves as impaired at 6 months. Our results do not support that adjuvant chemotherapy is associated with cognitive side effects in breast cancer patients.
Preview · Article · Mar 2010 · Breast Cancer Research and Treatment
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Hypospadias is a relatively common congenital malformation. Data on temporal trends in prevalence of hypospadias are conflicting. It is unclear whether changes of maternal age distribution over time are associated with changes in hypospadias prevalence.
To study changes in prevalence of hypospadias in Denmark during a 29-yr period and to investigate whether maternal age was associated with the prevalence of hypospadias.
Through Denmark's National Patient Registry, covering all Danish hospitals, we identified all boys diagnosed with hypospadias in Denmark. From the Danish Medical Birth Registry, we obtained information on maternal age and on the annual total number of live-born boys from 1977 to 2005.
Prevalence of hypospadias at birth.
Among 921745 boys born alive from 1977 to 2005, we identified 3490 boys with hypospadias. The prevalence increased from 0.24% in 1977 to 0.52% in 2005, corresponding with an annual increase in prevalence of 2.40% (95% confidence interval: 1.94-2.86). The prevalence of hypospadias did not differ according to maternal age. The mean annual prevalence was 0.38% in sons of mothers aged <or=25 yr, 0.37% in sons of mothers aged 26-30 yr, 0.39% in sons of mothers aged 31-35 yr, and 0.39% in sons of mothers >35 yr.
The hypospadias prevalence was increasing in Denmark from 1977 to 2005. Increased maternal age did not explain this trend.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: In North Jutland County, Denmark, we investigated whether use of oral glucocorticoids was associated with an increased risk of developing basal cell carcinoma (BCC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), malignant melanoma (MM), and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). From the Danish Cancer Registry we identified 5422 BCC, 935 SCC, 983 MM, and 481 NHL cases during 1989-2003. Using risk-set sampling we selected four age- and gender-matched population controls for each case from the Civil Registration System. Prescriptions for oral glucocorticoids before diagnosis were obtained from the Prescription Database of North Jutland County on the basis of National Health Service data. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs), adjusting for chronic medical diseases (information about these were obtained from the National Patient Registry) and use of other immunosuppressants. We found slightly elevated risk estimates for BCC (IRR, 1.15 (95% CI: 1.07-1.25)), SCC (IRR, 1.14 (95% CI: 0.94-1.39)), MM (IRR, 1.15 (95% CI: 0.94-1.41), and NHL (IRR, 1.11 (95% CI: 0.85-1.46)) among users of oral glucocorticoids. Our study supports an overall association between glucocorticoid use and risk of BCC that cannot be explained by the presence of chronic diseases or concomitant use of other immunosuppressants.
Full-text · Article · Dec 2008 · British Journal of Cancer
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Diuretics have photosensitising properties. However, little is known about how these diuretics affect the risk of skin cancers. In North Jutland County, Denmark, we investigated whether the use of photosensitising diuretics was associated with an increased risk for developing basal cell carcinoma (BCC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and malignant melanoma (MM). From the cancer registry, we identified primary cases of BCC, SCC and MM during the period of 1989-2003. We selected four population controls for each case from the Danish Civil Registration System, matched on age and gender. Prescriptions for photosensitising diuretics before cancer diagnosis were ascertained in the county's Prescription Database. We used conditional logistic regression to compute incidence rate ratio (IRR), controlling for the chronic medical conditions and for the previous use of oral glucocorticoids. We found an increased risk of SCC (IRR of 1.79 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.45-2.21)) and MM (IRR of 1.43 (95% CI: 1.09-1.88)) among users of combined amiloride and hydrochlorothiazide therapy. An increased risk of MM (IRR of 3.30 (95% CI: 1.34-8.10)) was found among users of indapamide. We found little associations with risk of BCC. Our findings provide evidence that the use of some photosensitising diuretics is associated with an increased risk for SCC and MM.
Full-text · Article · Oct 2008 · British Journal of Cancer