Emma Simpson

The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, England, United Kingdom

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Publications (26)83.23 Total impact

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    ABSTRACT: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited Dendreon, the company manufacturing sipuleucel-T, to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of sipuleucel-T for asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic, metastatic, non-visceral hormone-relapsed prostate cancer patients in whom chemotherapy is not yet clinically indicated, as part of NICE's single technology appraisal process. The comparator was abiraterone acetate (AA) or best supportive care (BSC). The School of Health and Related Research at the University of Sheffield was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper describes the company submission (CS), ERG review, and subsequent decision of the NICE Appraisal Committee (AC). The ERG produced a critical review of the clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence of sipuleucel-T based upon the CS. Clinical-effectiveness data relevant to the decision problem were taken from three randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of sipuleucel-T and a placebo (PBO) comparator of antigen-presenting cells (APC) being re-infused (APC-PBO) (D9901, D9902A and D9902B), and one RCT (COU-AA-302) of AA plus prednisone vs. PBO plus prednisone. Two trials reported a significant advantage for sipuleucel-T in median overall survival compared with APC-PBO: for trial D9901, an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.47; (95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.29, 0.76) p < 0.002; for D9902B, adjusted HR 0.78 (95 % CI 0.61, 0.98) p = 0.03. There was no significant difference between groups in D9902A, unadjusted HR 0.79 (95 % CI 0.48, 1.28) p = 0.331. Sipuleucel-T and APC-PBO groups did not differ significantly in time to disease progression, in any of the three RCTs. Most adverse events developed within 1 day of the infusion, and resolved within 2 days. The CS included an indirect comparison of sipuleucel-T (D9902B) and AA plus prednisone (COU-AA-302). As trials differed in prior use of chemotherapy, an analysis of only chemotherapy-naïve patients was included, in which the overall survival for sipuleucel-T and AA was not significantly different, HR 0.94 (95 % CI 0.69, 1.28) p = 0.699. The ERG had several concerns regarding the data and assumptions incorporated within the company's cost-effectiveness analyses and conducted exploratory analyses to quantify the impact of making alternative assumptions or using alternative data inputs. The deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for sipuleucel-T vs. BSC when using the ERG's preferred data and assumptions was £108,585 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) in the whole licensed population and £61,204/QALY in the subgroup with low prostate-specific antigen at baseline. The ERG also conducted an incremental analysis comparing sipuleucel-T with both AA and BSC in the chemotherapy-naïve subgroup. Sipuleucel-T had a deterministic ICER of £111,682/QALY in this subgroup, when using the ERG's preferred assumptions, and AA was extendedly dominated. The ERG also concluded that estimates of costs and benefits for AA should be interpreted with caution given the limitations of the indirect comparison. The AC noted that the ICER for sipuleucel-T was well above the range usually considered cost effective, and did not recommend sipuleucel-T for the treatment of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic, metastatic, non-visceral hormone-relapsed prostate cancer.
    No preview · Article · May 2015 · PharmacoEconomics
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    Michael Holmes · Sarah Davis · Emma Simpson
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    ABSTRACT: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH, the manufacturer of alteplase, to submit evidence for the clinical and cost-effectiveness of alteplase for the prevention of strokes within a 0-4.5 h window. The comparator was standard medical and supportive management that does not include alteplase. This paper provides a description of the company submission, the Evidence Review Group (ERG) review and NICE's subsequent decisions. Clinical effectiveness evidence for alteplase was derived from 5 trials. For the 3-4.5 h treatment window, alteplase did not show a statistically significant treatment effect on death or dependency at three months follow-up. For the 0-4.5 h treatment window data from a meta-analysis of 3 trials indicated that the reduction of death and dependency was statistically significant. In both cases there was a significant increase in symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage. The economic model described in the manufacturer's submission was considered by the ERG to meet the NICE reference case. The model structure was considered to be appropriate and the ERG has no major concerns regarding the selection of data used within the model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) for all treatment windows were well below accepted willingness to pay thresholds. The ERG had no major concerns regarding the completeness of the submission or the robustness of the evidence presented. For all treatment windows considered, alteplase was found to be cost-effective compared with standard treatment.
    Preview · Article · Nov 2014 · PharmacoEconomics

  • No preview · Conference Paper · Nov 2014
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    ABSTRACT: There have been rapid technological developments aimed at improving short- and long-term results of percutaneous transluminal balloon angioplasty (PTA) in peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAD). To assess current clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness evidence of additional techniques to standard PTA for PAD, develop a health economic model to assess cost-effectiveness and to identify where further research is needed. Relevant electronic databases, including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library were searched from inception to 2011, between May and October 2011. Systematic reviews were conducted of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The population was participants with symptomatic PAD undergoing endovascular treatment for disease distal to the inguinal ligament. Interventions were modifications of and adjuncts to PTA in the peripheral circulation, compared with conventional PTA. Outcomes included measures of clinical effectiveness and costs. Data were extracted from randomised controlled trials (RCTs), which were quality assessed using standard criteria. Where appropriate, meta-analyses using fixed- and random-effects methods produced relative risks (RRs). A discrete-event simulation model was developed to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of the interventions from a NHS perspective over a lifetime. The patient populations of intermittent claudication (IC) and critical limb ischaemia (CLI) were modelled separately. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken. In total, 40 RCTs were included, many of which had small sample sizes. Significantly reduced restenosis rates were shown in meta-analyses of self-expanding stents (SES) {RR 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52 to 0.87]}, endovascular brachytherapy (EVBT) [RR 0.63 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.83)] at 12 months and drug-coated balloons (DCBs) at 6 months [RR 0.40 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.69)], and single studies of stent-graft or drug-eluting stent (DES), compared with PTA; a single study showed improvements with DES versus bare-metal stents (BMSs). Compared with PTA, walking capacity was not significantly affected by cutting balloon, balloon-expandable stents or EVBT; in SES, there was evidence of improvement in walking capacity after up to 12 months. The use of DCBs dominated both the assumed standard practice of PTA with bailout BMS and all other interventions because it lowered lifetime costs and improved quality of life (QoL). These results were seen for both patient populations (IC and CLI). Sensitivity analyses showed that the results were robust to different assumptions about the clinical benefits attributable to the interventions, suggesting that the use of DCBs is cost-saving. Differing definitions of restenosis made direct comparison across trials difficult. There were few data available for walking capacity and QoL. The evidence showed a significant benefit to reducing restenosis rates for self-expanding and DESs, stent-graft, EVBT and DCBs. If it is assumed that patency translates into beneficial long-term clinical outcomes, then DCB and bail-out DES are most likely to be the cost-effective enhancements to PTA. A RCT comparing current recommended practice (PTA with bail-out BMS) with DCB and bail-out DES could assess long-term follow-up and cost-effectiveness. Data relating patency status to the need for reintervention and to the probability of symptoms returning should be collected, as should health-related QoL measures [European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) and maximum walking distance]. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012002014. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.
    Full-text · Article · Feb 2014

  • No preview · Article · Dec 2013 · British Journal of Surgery
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    E L Simpson · J.A. Michaels · S M Thomas · AJ Cantrell
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    ABSTRACT: There are several additional techniques designed to enhance conventional percutaneous transluminal balloon angioplasty (PTA). This systematic review assessed current evidence on the clinical effectiveness of additional techniques for infrainguinal peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAD). Relevant electronic databases, including MEDLINE, were searched in May 2011. The population comprised participants with symptomatic PAD undergoing endovascular treatment for disease distal to the inguinal ligament. Interventions were additional techniques compared with conventional PTA. Main outcome measures were restenosis and need for reintervention. Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of clinical effectiveness were assessed for quality and data were extracted. Where appropriate, meta-analysis was undertaken to produce risk ratios (RRs). Forty RCTs were selected. Meta-analysis showed a significant benefit in reducing restenosis rates at 6 months for self-expanding stents (RR 0·49) and drug-coated balloons (RR 0·40), and at 12 months for endovascular brachytherapy (RR 0·63). There was also evidence that use of a stent-graft significantly reduced restenosis compared with PTA, as did drug-eluting stents compared with bare-metal stents. Meta-analysis showed that use of drug-coated balloons was associated with significantly lower reintervention rates than PTA alone at 6 months (RR 0·24) and 24 months (RR 0·27) of follow-up. There was also evidence of significantly lower reintervention rates for self-expanding stents at 6 months. Other techniques did not show significant treatment effects for restenosis or reintervention. The conclusions of this review should be tempered by small sample sizes, lack of clinical outcome measures and differing outcome definitions, making direct comparison across trials difficult. However, self-expanding stents, drug-eluting stents and drug-coated balloons appeared to be the most promising technologies worthy of future study.
    Full-text · Article · Aug 2013 · British Journal of Surgery
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    ABSTRACT: The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of trabectedin (PharmaMar) to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of this drug for the treatment of advanced metastatic soft tissue sarcoma (aMSTS), as part of the Institute's single technology appraisal (STA) process. The School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR) was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper provides a description of the company submission, the ERG review and NICE's subsequent decisions. The ERG produced a review of the evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of the technology contained within the manufacturer's submission to NICE. The ERG also independently modified the manufacturer's decision analytic model to examine the impact of altering some of the key assumptions. The main evidence was derived from a single phase II randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted in liposarcoma and leiomyosarcoma only, in which the licensed dose of trabectedin was compared with a different dose of trabectedin. Additional data were also presented from three uncontrolled phase II trials. Supplementary studies were used to represent best supportive care (BSC). The median overall survival (OS) was 13.9 months for the licensed dose of trabectedin in the main randomized controlled trial (RCT) and ranged from 9.2 months to 12.8 months in the other studies included. Supplementary studies supplied by the manufacturer, and assumed to represent BSC, had median OS of 5.9-6.6 months. The progression-free survival (PFS) rates at 6 months for trabectedin were 35.5 % in the main RCT and 24.4-29 % in the other studies included. The PFS rates at 6 months were 8-14 % for BSC. In the manufacturer's original submission to NICE, the base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of trabectedin compared with BSC was approximately £44,000 per QALY gained. After amendment of errors identified by the ERG, the ICER reported by the manufacturer increased to approximately £61,000. The ERG concluded that, despite clarifications from the manufacturer and the revisions made to the model, there was still considerable uncertainty in the ICER. The NICE Appraisal Committee (AC) gave a negative initial recommendation, although indicated that trabectedin in aMSTS met the end-of-life criteria. Subsequently, the manufacturer submitted a patient access scheme (PAS) where any cycles beyond the fifth were provided at no cost by the manufacturer. This improved the ICER to approximately £34,000 per QALY gained. The AC gave a positive recommendation, subject to the implementation of the PAS.
    No preview · Article · Apr 2013 · PharmacoEconomics
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    ABSTRACT: The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer (The Medicines Company) of bivalirudin to submit evidence for its clinical and cost effectiveness within its licensed indication for the treatment of adults with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) intended for primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI), as part of NICE's single technology appraisal (STA) process. The School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR) at the University of Sheffield was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG), which produced a review of the evidence within the manufacturer's submission to NICE. This article describes the manufacturer's submission, the ERG review and NICE's subsequent decisions. The main evidence was derived from one randomized controlled trial (RCT) of STEMI patients intended for PPCI, comparing bivalirudin with unfractionated heparin plus glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors (GPIs). Bivalirudin was associated with a significant reduction in cardiac mortality at 30 days (p = 0.03) and at 1-year follow-up (p = 0.005), and a significant reduction in major bleeding at 30 days (p < 0.001) and 1 year (p < 0.0001), compared with heparin plus GPI. Stent thrombosis up to 24 hours following PPCI was significantly (p < 0.001) more common with bivalirudin. However, there was no significant treatment effect for stent thrombosis from 1 to 30 days (p = 0.28), or at 1-year follow-up (p = 0.53). There were no significant treatment group differences at 30 days and at 1 year in stroke (p = 0.68 and p = 0.99, respectively), in myocardial infarction [MI] (p = 0.90 and p = 0.22, respectively), or in the need for the revascularization of the target vessel for ischaemia (p = 0.18 and p = 0.12, respectively). There were two decision-analytic models: the base-case scenario used 1-year follow-up data from the RCT; and a sensitivity analysis used 3-year follow-up data. Resource use was primarily drawn from this RCT. Health-related quality-of-life (HR-QOL) estimates were drawn from a UK cohort study. Both models evaluated the incremental costs and outcomes of bivalirudin compared with heparin plus GPI for patients with STEMI intended for PPCI. The analysis adopted a UK NHS perspective over a lifetime horizon. Unit costs were based on year 2009-2010 prices. The model adopted a decision-tree structure to reflect initial events for the initial period (stroke, repeat MI, minor/major bleeding events, repeat revascularization and death) and a two-state Markov component to simulate longer-term survival. The economic analysis suggested that bivalirudin is expected to dominate the heparin plus GPI strategy. This finding was consistent across the probabilistic sensitivity analysis and the vast majority of deterministic sensitivity analyses undertaken. Three exceptions to this finding were observed for the following sensitivity analyses: (1) the exclusive use of eptifibatide as the GPI (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] = £1,764); (2) the combination of 100 % eptifibatide use, 100 % radial arterial access and no differential length between strategies for initial hospital stay (ICER = £4,106); and (3) a longer length of ward stay (increase of 0.33 days) for the initial hospitalization (ICER = £415). The Appraisal Committee (AC) gave a positive recommendation for bivalirudin for the treatment of adults with STEMI undergoing PPCI.
    No preview · Article · Mar 2013 · PharmacoEconomics
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    ABSTRACT: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of cilostazol, naftidrofuryl oxalate, and pentoxifylline for intermittent claudication due to peripheral arterial disease (PAD) in adults whose symptoms continue despite a period of conventional management. A Markov decision model was developed to assess the lifetime costs and benefits of each vasoactive drug compared to no vasoactive drug and with each other. Regression analysis was undertaken to model the relationship between maximum walking distance and utility. Resource use data were sourced from the literature and sensitivity analyses were undertaken. Naftidrofuryl oxalate is more effective and less costly than cilostazol and pentoxifylline and has an estimated cost per quality-adjusted life year gained of around £6070 compared to no vasoactive drug. The analysis uses effectiveness evidence from a network meta-analysis. In contrast to previous guidelines recommending cilostazol, the analysis suggests that naftidrofuryl oxalate is the only vasoactive drug for PAD which is likely to be cost-effective.
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2013 · Angiology
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    ABSTRACT: A systematic review and network meta-analysis was undertaken to consider the evidence for the efficacy and tolerability of placebo, cilostazol, naftidrofuryl oxalate and pentoxifylline in patients with intermittent claudication due to peripheral arterial disease (PAD). MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science, Conference Proceedings, BIOSIS, National Research Register and MetaRegister databases were searched. Eligible studies were randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and published systematic reviews of patients with intermittent claudication due to PAD and whose symptoms persisted despite a period of conservative management. Study selection was conducted by one reviewer with involvement from a clinician. Data were extracted by one reviewer with no blinding to authors or journal, and checked by a second reviewer. Outcome measures were maximum walking distance (MWD) and pain-free walking distance (PFWD). The review identified 1876 citations; 26 RCTs met the inclusion criteria for the systematic review. Eleven trials provided data relevant for the meta-analysis. Naftidrofuryl oxalate was ranked first for both MWD and PFWD (probability of 0·947 and 0·987, respectively, of being the best treatment) followed by cilostazol and pentoxifylline. For naftidrofuryl oxalate, cilostazol and pentoxifylline, MWD increased by 60 (95 per cent credible interval 20 to 114) per cent, 25 (11 to 40) per cent and 11 (−1 to 24) per cent respectively relative to placebo, and PFWD increased by 49, 13 and 9 per cent. Naftidrofuryl oxalate and cilostazol are both effective treatments for claudication; naftidrofuryl oxalate is likely to be the most effective, with minimal serious adverse events. Copyright © 2012 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Full-text · Article · Dec 2012 · British Journal of Surgery
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    Full-text · Article · Nov 2012 · Value in Health
  • S.R. Hummel · M D Stevenson · E.L. Simpson · Staffurth J.N.
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    ABSTRACT: Aims: To determine the cost-effectiveness of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) compared with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) for men with localised prostate cancer from a UK National Health Service perspective. Materials and methods: A discrete event simulation model was developed to simulate the progress of patients through advancing disease states until death from prostate cancer or other causes. Clinical effectiveness data for IMRT and 3DCRT were derived from a systematic review. Four scenarios were modelled based on different clinical studies. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken and the incremental cost per quality adjusted life years (ICER) calculated. Results: In scenarios where estimated survival was greater for IMRT than 3DCRT, IMRT was clearly cost-effective (ICER <£20 000). For scenarios where only a difference in late gastrointestinal toxicity was assumed, the ICER was highly sensitive to uncertain model parameters, including the magnitude of the difference, the duration of gastrointestinal toxicity and the cost difference between treatments. For the most likely scenario, a 15% difference in late gastrointestinal toxicity, the ICER was £35 000, with a 20% probability that it is cost-effective at a maximum threshold of £20 000 and a 48% probability at a threshold of £30 000. Conclusion: If IMRT can be used to prolong survival, it is very cost-effective. Otherwise cost-effectiveness is uncertain.
    No preview · Article · Oct 2012 · Clinical Oncology
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    H Squires · Simpson EL · Y Meng · S Harnan · Jw Stevens · R Wong · S Thomas · J Michaels · G Stansby
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    ABSTRACT: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a condition in which there is blockage or narrowing of the arteries that carry blood to the legs and arms. It is estimated to affect around 4.5% of people aged between 55 and 74 years within the UK. The most common symptom of PAD is intermittent claudication (IC), characterised by pain in the legs on walking that is relieved with rest. To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cilostazol, naftidrofuryl oxalate, pentoxifylline and inositol nicotinate, compared with no vasoactive drugs, for IC due to PAD in adults whose symptoms continue despite a period of conventional management. Electronic bibliographic databases were searched during April to June 2010 (MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library databases, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science, Conference Proceedings Citation Index, BIOSIS Previews). Effectiveness outcomes sought were maximal walking distance (MWD), pain-free walking distance (PFWD), ankle-brachial pressure index, cardiovascular events, mortality, adverse events (AEs) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). A narrative synthesis was provided for all outcomes and a network meta-analysis was undertaken for the walking distance outcomes. A Markov model was developed to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of the interventions from a NHS perspective over a lifetime. The model has three states: vasoactive drug treatment, no vasoactive drug treatment and death. Each 1-week cycle, patients may continue with the drug, discontinue the drug or die. Regression analysis was undertaken to model the relationship between MWD and utility so that a cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) outcome measure could be presented. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken. All costs and outcomes were discounted at 3.5%. Twenty-six randomised controlled trials were identified that met the inclusion criteria for the clinical effectiveness review. There was evidence that walking distance outcomes were significantly improved by both cilostazol and naftidrofuryl oxalate; the 95% credible intervals for the difference from placebo in the logarithm mean change MWD from baseline were 0.108 to 0.337 and 0.181 to 0.762, respectively. It was not possible to include inositol nicotinate within the meta-analysis of MWD and PFWD owing to the lack of 24-month data; however, the shorter-term data did not suggest a significant effect. AEs were minor for all drugs and included headaches and gastrointestinal difficulties. The incidence of serious adverse events (SAEs), including cardiovascular events and mortality, was not increased by the vasoactive drugs compared with placebo; however, most studies had a relatively short follow-up time to address this outcome. HRQoL data were limited. Two studies of limited quality were identified within the review of cost-effectiveness. The de novo model developed suggests that naftidrofuryl oxalate dominates cilostazol and pentoxifylline and has a cost per QALY gained of around £6070 compared with no vasoactive drug. This result is reasonably robust to changes within the key model assumptions. Inositol nicotinate was not included within the main analysis owing to lack of data. However, it is unlikely to be considered to be cost-effective due to its high acquisition cost (£900 vs £100-500 per year for the other drugs). Naftidrofuryl oxalate and cilostazol both appear to be effective treatments for this patient population, with minimal SAEs. However, naftidrofuryl oxalate is the only treatment that is likely to be considered cost-effective. The long-term effectiveness is uncertain and hence a trial comparing cilostazol, naftidrofuryl oxalate and placebo beyond 24 weeks would be beneficial. Outcomes associated with naftidrofuryl oxalate could also be compared with those associated with supervised exercise programmes and angioplasty.
    Full-text · Article · Dec 2011
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    ABSTRACT: To systematically review evidence relating to the clinical efficacy of oseltamivir, zanamivir and amantadine in the prevention of influenza. RCTs evaluating these interventions in seasonal prophylaxis and post-exposure prophylaxis were identified using electronic bibliographic databases and handsearching of retrieved articles. Oseltamivir was effective in preventing symptomatic laboratory-confirmed influenza (SLCI) in seasonal prophylaxis in healthy adults and at-risk elderly subjects and in post-exposure prophylaxis within households of mixed composition. Post-exposure prophylaxis using oseltamivir for paediatric contacts was observed to prevent SLCI. Zanamivir prevented SLCI in seasonal prophylaxis in healthy adults, at-risk adults and adolescents and in post-exposure prophylaxis within mixed households, with a trend for seasonal and post-exposure preventative effects in elderly subjects. Evidence for amantadine prophylaxis across subgroups was very limited. However, amantadine prevented SLCI in seasonal prophylaxis in healthy adults and in outbreak control amongst adolescent subjects. Interventions were reported to be well tolerated by subjects, with a relatively low proportion of subjects experiencing drug-related adverse events and drug-related withdrawals. Evidence was identified for the efficacy of oseltamivir and zanamivir in preventing influenza in a range of population subgroups. The evidence base for amantadine was considerably more limited.
    No preview · Article · Oct 2010 · The Journal of infection
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    SSE Hummel · E L Simpson · P Hemingway · M D Stevenson · A Rees
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    ABSTRACT: Prostate cancer (PC) is the most common cancer in men in the UK. Radiotherapy (RT) is a recognised treatment for PC and high-dose conformal radiotherapy (CRT) is the recommended standard of care for localised or locally advanced tumours. Intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) allows better dose distributions in RT. This report evaluates the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of IMRT for the radical treatment of PC. The following databases were searched: MEDLINE (1950-present), EMBASE (1980-present), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) (1982-present), BIOSIS (1985-present), the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (1991-present), the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (1991-present), the Science Citation Index (1900-present) and the NHS Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases (Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Health Technology Assessment) (1991-present). MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations was searched to identify any studies not yet indexed on MEDLINE. Current research was identified through searching the UK Clinical Research Network, National Research Register archive, the Current Controlled Trials register and the Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Register. In addition, abstracts of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology, and European Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology conferences were browsed. A systematic literature review of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of IMRT in PC was conducted. Comparators were three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) or radical prostatectomy. Outcomes sought were overall survival, biochemical [prostate-specific antigen (PSA)] relapse-free survival, toxicity and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Fifteen electronic bibliographic databases were searched in January 2009 and updated in May 2009, and the reference lists of relevant articles were checked. Studies only published in languages other than English were excluded. An economic model was developed to examine the cost-effectiveness of IMRT in comparison to 3DCRT. Four scenarios were modelled based on the studies which reported both PSA survival and late gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity. In two scenarios equal PSA survival was assumed for IMRT and 3DCRT, the other two having greater PSA survival for the IMRT cohort. As there was very limited data on clinical outcomes, the model estimates progression to clinical failure and PC death from the surrogate outcome of PSA failure. No randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of IMRT versus 3DCRT in PC were available, but 13 non-randomised studies comparing IMRT with 3DCRT were found, of which five were available only as abstracts. One abstract reported overall survival. Biochemical relapse-free survival was not affected by treatment group, except where there was a dose difference between groups, in which case higher dose IMRT was favoured over lower dose 3DCRT. Most studies reported an advantage for IMRT in GI toxicity, attributed to increased conformality of treatment compared with 3DCRT, particularly with regard to volume of rectum treated. There was some indication that genitourinary toxicity was worse for patients treated with dose escalated IMRT, although most studies did not find a significant treatment effect. HRQoL improved for both treatment groups following radiotherapy, with any group difference resolved by 6 months after treatment. No comparative studies of IMRT versus prostatectomy were identified. No comparative studies of IMRT in PC patients with bone metastasis were identified. The strength of the conclusions of this review are limited by the lack of RCTs, and any comparative studies for some patient groups. The comparative data of IMRT versus 3DCRT seem to support the theory that higher doses, up to 81 Gy, can improve biochemical survival for patients with localised PC, concurring with data on CRT. The data also suggest that toxicity can be reduced by increasing conformality of treatment, particularly with regard to GI toxicity, which can be more easily achieved with IMRT than 3DCRT. Whether differences in GI toxicity between IMRT and 3DCRT are sufficient for IMRT to be cost-effective is uncertain, depending on the difference in incidence of GI toxicity, its duration and the cost difference between IMRT and 3DCRT.
    Full-text · Article · Oct 2010
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    E L Simpson · R Rafia · M D Stevenson · D Papaioannou
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    ABSTRACT: This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of trabectedin for the treatment of advanced metastatic soft tissue sarcoma, in accordance with the licensed indication, based on the evidence submission from the manufacturer to NICE as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The outcomes stated in the manufacturer's definition of the decision problem were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), response rates, adverse effects of treatment, health-related quality of life, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The clinical evidence was derived from one randomised controlled trial (RCT), in which the licensed dose of trabectedin was compared with a different dose of trabectedin, and three phase II studies. In the RCT, the median OS was 13.9 months for the licensed dose of trabectedin, which was not significantly different from that for the comparator dose of trabectedin, which was 11.8 months. From the phase II uncontrolled trials, median OS was reported as 9.2 or 12.8 months. The RCT reported significantly superior PFS for the licensed dose of trabectedin (median 3.3 months) over the comparator trabectedin dose (median 2.3 months). One phase II uncontrolled trial reported median PFS as 1.9 months in the licensed dose of trabectedin. The RCT reported PFS rates at 6 months were 35.5% for the licensed dose of trabectedin, and 27.5% for the comparator dose of trabectedin. From the phase II uncontrolled trials, PFS rates at 6 months were 24.4% or 29%. For the RCT, deaths attributed to trabectedin occurred in 3.1% of the licensed dose, and 2.3% of the comparator group. The most common severe adverse events were neutropenia, although with a low rate of febrile neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, and aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase elevation, although these were reported to be non-cumulative and reversible. Following dialogue iterations with the ERG team, the manufacturer revised the model twice. However, despite revisions, errors/inconsistencies were found in the latest version of the model and were corrected by the ERG (only for the base case). In the latest manufacturer's submission, the cost per QALY gained of trabectedin compared with best supportive care (BSC) was estimated to be 56,985 pounds for the base case using effectiveness from the STS (Soft Tissue Sarcomas)-201 trial for trabectedin and a pool analysis of the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer data set for BSC. This analysis was constrained to patients with L-sarcomas only. When the joint uncertainty between parameters was considered, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve showed that trabectedin has a very low probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of 30,000 pounds per QALY gained compared with BSC for any scenario. The guidance has yet to be issued by NICE.
    Full-text · Article · May 2010
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    ABSTRACT: A review of modelling work funded by the National Coordinating Centre for Health Technology Assessment (NCCHTA) was undertaken to quantify the use of discrete event simulation (DES) techniques in health economics. A case study, funded by the NCCHTA, estimating the cost-effectiveness of thrombophilia testing is presented. Thrombophilia may increase the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) which can be fatal; however, the preventative treatment, warfarin, is associated with an increased risk of haemorrhage, which is also potentially fatal. A DES model, populated from literature reviews and incorporating VTE events, haemorrhages and death was constructed. The most cost-effective duration of warfarin treatment (‘standard treatment’ of 3 or 6 months, 10 years, 20 years or lifelong) was estimated for patients with initial idiopathic VTE, sub-divided into age, gender, VTE type and known thrombophilia type groups. The primary goal was to ascertain, for each sub-group, whether the cost of thrombophilia testing for all patients, given subsequent tailoring of warfarin duration, would be cost-effective. Thrombophilia testing was estimated to be cost-effective in most sub-groups; however these results are subject to large uncertainty. Primary research is required before a definitive conclusion can be reached.
    No preview · Article · Mar 2010 · Journal of Simulation
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    ABSTRACT: Currently available evidence does not provide definitive guidance regarding the optimal chemotherapy agents and combinations in anthracycline- and taxane-pretreated advanced breast cancer. We performed a systematic review of controlled clinical trials of the cytotoxic agents currently used for this population in Europe: capecitabine, gemcitabine, vinorelbine, docetaxel, paclitaxel and paclitaxel protein-bound particles. A systematic review of randomised (RCT) and non-randomised controlled clinical trials (non-RCTs). The primary outcomes of interest were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS); secondary outcomes were duration of response (DR), overall response rate (ORR), adverse events and quality of life (QoL). Six electronic databases and grey literature sources were searched; reference tracking was performed on included publications. A narrative synthesis was conducted: heterogeneity of study design and interventions prevented meta-analysis. No randomised controlled trial (RCT) found any significant differences between any of the regimens in terms of OS. In terms of PFS, only gemcitabine plus vinorelbine performed significantly better than its comparator, vinorelbine alone. For secondary outcomes, only capecitabine plus bevacizumab had a significantly better outcome than its comparator, capecitabine alone, in terms of ORR. A low quality non-RCT found that both capecitabine monotherapy and a combination of capecitabine plus vinorelbine were significantly more effective than vinorelbine alone in terms of OS and ORR. Across all trials, median OS for these patients typically remained less than 16 months. The quantity and quality of the available evidence regarding the efficacy of the particular chemotherapy regimens in patients with advanced breast cancer pretreated with an anthracycline and a taxane is extremely limited. New effective therapies are sorely needed in this population.
    No preview · Article · Aug 2009 · European journal of cancer (Oxford, England: 1990)
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    E L Simpson · A Duenas · M W Holmes · D Papaioannou · J Chilcott
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    ABSTRACT: This report addressed the question 'What is the clinical and cost-effectiveness of spinal cord stimulation (SCS) in the management of chronic neuropathic or ischaemic pain?' Thirteen electronic databases [including MEDLINE (1950-2007), EMBASE (1980-2007) and the Cochrane Library (1991-2007)] were searched from inception; relevant journals were hand-searched; and appropriate websites for specific conditions causing chronic neuropathic/ischaemic pain were browsed. Literature searches were conducted from August 2007 to September 2007. A systematic review of the literature sought clinical and cost-effectiveness data for SCS in adults with chronic neuropathic or ischaemic pain with inadequate response to medical or surgical treatment other than SCS. Economic analyses were performed to model the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of SCS in patients with neuropathic or ischaemic pain. From approximately 6000 citations identified, 11 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included in the clinical effectiveness review: three of neuropathic pain and eight of ischaemic pain. Trials were available for the neuropathic conditions failed back surgery syndrome (FBSS) and complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) type I, and they suggested that SCS was more effective than conventional medical management (CMM) or reoperation in reducing pain. The ischaemic pain trials had small sample sizes, meaning that most may not have been adequately powered to detect clinically meaningful differences. Trial evidence failed to demonstrate that pain relief in critical limb ischaemia (CLI) was better for SCS than for CMM; however, it suggested that SCS was effective in delaying refractory angina pain onset during exercise at short-term follow-up, although not more so than coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) for those patients eligible for that surgery. The results for the neuropathic pain model suggested that the cost-effectiveness estimates for SCS in patients with FBSS who had inadequate responses to medical or surgical treatment were below 20,000 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. In patients with CRPS who had had an inadequate response to medical treatment the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was 25,095 pounds per QALY gained. When the SCS device costs varied from 5000 pounds to 15,000 pounds, the ICERs ranged from 2563 pounds per QALY to 22,356 pounds per QALY for FBSS when compared with CMM and from 2283 pounds per QALY to 19,624 pounds per QALY for FBSS compared with reoperation. For CRPS the ICERs ranged from 9374 pounds per QALY to 66,646 pounds per QALY. If device longevity (1 to 14 years) and device average price (5000 pounds to 15,000 pounds) were varied simultaneously, ICERs were below or very close to 30,000 pounds per QALY when device longevity was 3 years and below or very close to 20,000 pounds per QALY when device longevity was 4 years. Sensitivity analyses were performed varying the costs of CMM, device longevity and average device cost, showing that ICERs for CRPS were higher. In the ischaemic model, it was difficult to determine whether SCS represented value for money when there was insufficient evidence to demonstrate its comparative efficacy. The threshold analysis suggested that the most favourable economic profiles for treatment with SCS were when compared to CABG in patients eligible for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), and in patients eligible for CABG and PCI. In these two cases, SCS dominated (it cost less and accrued more survival benefits) over CABG. The evidence suggested that SCS was effective in reducing the chronic neuropathic pain of FBSS and CRPS type I. For ischaemic pain, there may need to be selection criteria developed for CLI, and SCS may have clinical benefit for refractory angina short-term. Further trials of other types of neuropathic pain or subgroups of ischaemic pain, may be useful.
    Full-text · Article · Apr 2009 · Health technology assessment (Winchester, England)
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    P Tappenden · R Jackson · K Cooper · A Rees · E Simpson · R Read · K Nicholson
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    ABSTRACT: To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and incremental cost-effectiveness of amantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir for seasonal and post-exposure prophylaxis of influenza. A MEDLINE search strategy was used and searches were carried out in July 2007. An independent health economic model was developed based on a review of existing cost-effectiveness models and clinical advice.The model draws together a broad spectrum of evidence relating to the costs and consequences associated with influenza and its prevention. Where direct evidence concerning the effectiveness of prophylaxis within specific model subgroups was lacking, the model uses estimates from mixed subgroups or extrapolates from other mutually exclusive subgroups. Twenty-six published references relating to 22 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included in the clinical effectiveness review, along with one unpublished report. Eight, six and nine RCTs were included for amantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir respectively. The study quality was variable and gaps in the evidence base limited the assessment of the clinical effectiveness of the interventions. For seasonal prophylaxis, there was limited evidence for the efficacy of amantadine in preventing symptomatic, laboratory-confirmed influenza (SLCI) in healthy adults [relative risk (RR) 0.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.08-2.03]. Oseltamivir was effective in preventing SLCI, particularly when used in at-risk elderly subjects (RR 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.63). The preventative efficacy of zanamivir was most notable in at-risk adults and adolescents (RR 0.17, 95% CI 0.07-0.44), and healthy and at-risk elderly subjects (RR 0.20, 95% CI 0.02-1.72). For post-exposure prophylaxis, data on the use of amantadine were again limited: in adolescents an RR of 0.10 (95% CI 0.03-0.34) was reported for the prevention of SLCI. Oseltamivir was effective in households of mixed composition (RR 0.19, 95% CI 0.08-0.45). The efficacy of zanamivir in post-exposure prophylaxis within households was also reported (RR 0.21, 95% CI 0.13-0.33). Interventions appeared to be well tolerated. Limited evidence was available for the effectiveness of the interventions in preventing complications and hospitalisation and in minimising length of illness and time to return to normal activities. No clinical effectiveness data were identified for health-related quality of life or mortality outcomes. With the exception of at-risk children, the incremental cost-utility of seasonal influenza prophylaxis is expected to be in the range 38,000-428,000 pounds per QALY gained (depending on subgroup). The cost-effectiveness ratios for oseltamivir and zanamivir as post-exposure prophylaxis are expected to be below 30,000 pounds per QALY gained in healthy children, at-risk children, healthy elderly and at-risk elderly individuals. Despite favourable clinical efficacy estimates, the incorporation of recent evidence of viral resistance to amantadine led to it being dominated in every economic comparison. All three interventions showed some efficacy for seasonal and post-exposure prophylaxis. However, weaknesses and gaps in the clinical evidence base are directly relevant to the interpretation of the health economic model and rendered the use of advanced statistical analyses inappropriate. These data limitations should be borne in mind in interpreting the findings of the review.
    Preview · Article · Mar 2009 · Health technology assessment (Winchester, England)