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Dread Risk, September 11, and Fatal Traffic Accidents

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Abstract

People tend to fear dread risks, that is, low-probability, high-consequence events, such as the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001. If Americans avoided the dread risk of flying after the attack and instead drove some of the unflown miles, one would expect an increase in traffic fatalities. This hypothesis was tested by analyzing data from the U.S. Department of Transportation for the 3 months following September 11. The analysis suggests that the number of Americans who lost their lives on the road by avoiding the risk of flying was higher than the total number of passengers killed on the four fatal flights. I conclude that informing the public about psychological research concerning dread risks could possibly save lives.

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... The COVID-19 pandemic, a low-probability and high-consequence event, is of the former type; individuals are very likely to perceive it as a dread risk (Gerhold 2020). This perception is likely to affect individual behavior, which might unfold rather complex dynamics: Gigerenzer (2004), for example, shows that such dread risks affect individual decision-making behavior not just in the short but also in the long run. For the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks he finds that perception of the terrorist attack has caused a change in individual transport behavior and, in consequence, has led to an increase in traffic fatalities beyond what would have been expected without the change in individual behavior. ...
... These effects are likely to be shaped by two factors: The individual mind and structure of the environment (Gaissmaier and Gigerenzer 2012;Simon 1990). The former is affected by the perception of the COVID-19 pandemic as a dread risk with changes in behavioral patterns lurking (Gigerenzer 2004). The latter also affects individual behavior as it determines the boundaries for adaptivity (Simon 1990). ...
... The structure of the environment is the second driving force behind delayed effects of the COVID-19 pandemic which is discussed in this paper as, following Simon (1990), it defines the limits of the adaptation. Gaissmaier and Gigerenzer (2012), for example, regard the availability of driving opportunities as a main factor that contributed to the change in behavioral patterns 4 in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks which led to more fatalities than would have been expected without the change in behavior (see also Gigerenzer 2004). Similarly, López-Rousseau (2005) analyzed traffic patterns in the aftermath of terrorist train attacks in Spain in 2011: They observed that train travel had decreased in the months following the attacks, the amount of other traffic, however, had not increased. ...
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This position paper discusses emerging behavioral, social, and economic dynamics related to the COVID-19 pandemic and puts particular emphasis on two emerging issues: First, delayed effects (or second strikes) of pandemics caused by dread risk effects are discussed whereby two factors which might influence the existence of such effects are identified, namely the accessibility of (mis-)information and the effects of policy decisions on adaptive behavior. Second, the issue of individual preparedness to hazardous events is discussed. As events such as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds complex behavioral patterns which are hard to predict, sophisticated models which account for behavioral, social, and economic dynamics are required to assess the effectivity and efficiency of decision-making.
... The COVID-19 pandemic, a low-probability and high-consequence event, is of the former type; individuals are very likely to perceive it as a dread risk (Gerhold 2020). This perception is likely to affect individual behavior, which might unfold rather complex dynamics: Gigerenzer (2004), for example, shows that such dread risks affect individual decision-making behavior not just in the short but also in the long run. For the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks he finds that perception of the terrorist attack has caused a change in individual transport behavior and, in consequence, has led to an increase in traffic fatalities beyond what would have been expected without the change in individual behavior. ...
... These effects are likely to be shaped by two factors: The individual mind and structure of the environment (Gaissmaier and Gigerenzer 2012;Simon 1990). The former is affected by the perception of the COVID-19 pandemic as a dread risk with changes in behavioral patterns lurking (Gigerenzer 2004). The latter also affects individual behavior as it determines the boundaries for adaptivity (Simon 1990). ...
... The structure of the environment is the second driving force behind delayed effects of the COVID-19 pandemic which is discussed in this paper as, following Simon (1990), it defines the limits of the adaptation. Gaissmaier and Gigerenzer (2012), for example, regard the availability of driving opportunities as a main factor that contributed to the change in behavioral patterns in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks which led to more fatalities than would have been expected without the change in behavior (see also Gigerenzer 2004). 4 Similarly, López-Rousseau (2005) analyzed traffic patterns in the aftermath of terrorist train attacks in Spain in 2011: They observed that train travel had decreased in the months following the attacks, the amount of other traffic, however, had not increased. ...
Article
Full-text available
This position paper discusses emerging behavioral, social, and economic dynamics related to the COVID-19 pandemic and puts particular emphasis on two emerging issues: First, delayed effects (or second strikes) of pandemics caused by dread risk effects are discussed whereby two factors which might influence the existence of such effects are identified, namely the accessibility of (mis-)information and the effects of policy decisions on adaptive behavior. Second, the issue of individual preparedness to hazardous events is discussed. As events such as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds complex behavioral patterns which are hard to predict, sophisticated models which account for behavioral, social, and economic dynamics are required to assess the effectivity and efficiency of decision-making.
... Several studies have been devoted to the relationship between risk perception and protective behavior (Bellrose & Pilisuk, 1991;Burns & Slovic, 2012;Eklöf & Törner, 2005;Gigerenzer, 2004;Ivers et al., 2009;Kouabenan, Ngueutsa, & Mbaye, 2015;Kuttschreuter, 2006;Mbaye & Kouabenan, 2013;McCool, Ameratunga, Moran, & Robinson, 2009;Ngueutsa, 2012;Slovic, Fischhoff, & Lichtenstein, 1981;Van der Pligt, 1996;Weinstein et al., 2007). "Some studies have found a positive influence of perceived risk on protective behaviors, while others have found a negative relationship" (Kouabenan, 2006, p. 263). ...
... Furthermore, a longitudinal study by Ivers et al. (2009) on a sample of 20,822 novice drivers showed that higher levels of perceived risk were related to increased safe behaviors and fewer crashes. Moreover, Gigerenzer (2004) noticed that the number of road deaths in the United States increased significantly during the three months following the 9/11 attacks. Although many other factors surely explained the high crash rate on the roads during that period of time, the author pointed out the underestimation of roadaccident risks as compared to the risk of a plane crash, as a potential explaining factor. ...
... However, people would get more involved in safe behaviors when they perceived situations as risky (Eklöf & Törner, 2005;Gigerenzer, 2004;Ivers et al., 2009;Kuttschreuter, 2006;Mbaye & Kouabenan, 2013;McCool et al., 2009;Ngueutsa, 2012). Therefore, we hypothesized higher levels of risk perception to be related to higher levels of reported safe behaviors (H3). ...
Article
Introduction Road safety is a major worldwide concern especially for developing countries where a certain feeling of helplessness predominate. Local authorities are seeking ways to change people's behaviors considered as the first causal factor of traffic accidents. Risk perception and fatalistic beliefs have been identified as important socio-cognitive functioning patterns, which can shed light on people's behaviors towards risks, for prevention purpose. But the way fatalistic beliefs are associated with risk perception and safety behaviors remains blurred in literature. Objective This article examined the relationship between fatalistic beliefs, risk perception and traffic safety-related behaviors. Method The study was carried out in Cameroon on a sample of 525 road users with a questionnaire made up of scales measuring fatalistic beliefs, perceived risk for dangerous traffic events and reported safe behaviors. Results As expected, participants with higher levels of fatalistic beliefs perceived dangerous traffic situations as less risky and reported less safe behaviors. Perceived risk partially mediated the association between fatalistic beliefs and reported safe behaviors. Conclusion Perceiving dangerous traffic situations as risky can mitigate the magnitude of one's fatalistic beliefs on the engagement in protective behaviors. The implications for more effective prevention including both beliefs and perceptions are suggested. One can explain to people how to avoid accidents, emphasizing on their capacity to change their behavior and the gains they retrieved from that behavioral change.
... As we have already mentioned in the previous section, López-Rousseau (2005) showed that after the Madrid bombings Gigerenzer's (2004) "Dread Risk Hypothesis" could not be proved true. Nevertheless, the analysis of the Madrid case is still relevant, especially in comparison with other similar experiences, as -unlike the 7/7 bombings or the Tokyo Sarin gas attacks-it presents two specific characteristics: ...
... In this paper we have studied in what way the bombings of 3/11 altered Madrilenians consumption habits towards public transportation modes. Starting from the fact that López-Rousseau (2005) had already shown that Gigerenzer's (2004) "Dread risk hypothesis could not be verified in the Spanish case, we have analyzed the impact the attack had on the number of bus and Metro passengers. ...
... ). Relying on data provided by the Spanish Highway Authorities, highway traffic did not increase after 3/11, but in fact decreased (around 1 percent in March and 3% in April, while the previous twelve months presented an average reduction of 1 percent). Also, fatal accidents on highways decreased after 3/11, thus showing thatGigerenzer's (2004) test of Myer's (2001) hypothesis did not prove true in the case of the Madrid bombings. Graph 15: Average interannual variation in the number of train travellers, highway vehicles and fatal highway accidents in March and April 1999 through 2003 versus March and April 2004 in Spain (according toLópez-Rousseau, 2005:428) ...
Chapter
The present work sums up the contribution done by the Chair of the Economics of Terrorism of the Complutense University of Madrid (Spain) to a Research Project funded by METRANS (National Center for Metropolitan Transportation Research) and headed by CREATE (Homeland Security Center at the University of Southern California) which also counted with the participation of a research group from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). The authors would like to thank all the participants in the research project for the information shared. A synthesis of the results, embodied in a wider analysis of the economic consequences of the Madrid bombings is to be found in Buesa and Baumert (2010).
... The affect heuristic (Finucane et al., 2000) was applied by us to explain people's biased responses to traffic crashes involving SDVs. The affect-induced bias is not rare in decision-making and behavior research (Gigerenzer, 2004;Siegrist and Sütterlin, 2014;Lerner et al., 2015), and we suggest using this affect heuristic to explain people's heterogeneous responses to humans and machines in the broader literature on people's responses to humans and machines, which mainly focuses on whether machines have similar human characteristics but seldom concerns different affect and emotions tagged with humans and machines. ...
... It could be costly for society at large in terms of reducing the opportunity to improve the safety of these vehicles and to save more human lives as accumulating real-world driving experience is necessary to improve the safety performance of SDVs and other AVs. For example, Gigerenzer (2004) found that the number of Americans who lost their lives on the road in trying to avoid the risk of flying in the three months following the attack on September 11, 2001, was higher than the total number of passengers killed on the four fatal flights in the attack. Thus, psychological and behavioral outcomes resulting from traffic crashes involving SDVs should be strongly emphasized. ...
... Reducing negative emotions, facilitating positive emotions, and increasing risk tolerability of SDVs can be achieved through, for example, highlighting the benefits of SDVs. In addition, as suggested by Gigerenzer (2004), it could be easy and inexpensive to make the public aware of their psychological reactions to traffic crashes involving SDVs and the potential risk of being averse to SDVs. ...
Article
Although self-driving vehicles (SDVs) bring with them the promise of improved traffic safety, they cannot eliminate all crashes. Little is known about whether people respond crashes involving SDVs and human drivers differently and why. Across five vignette-based experiments in two studies (total N = 1267), for the first time, we witnessed that participants had a tendency to perceive traffic crashes involving SDVs to be more severe than those involving conventionally human-driven vehicles (HDVs) regardless of their severity (injury or fatality) or cause (SDVs/HDVs or others). Furthermore, we found that this biased response could be a result of people’s reliance on the affect heuristic. More specifically, higher prior negative affect tagged with an SDV (vs. an HDV) intensifies people’s negative affect evoked by crashes involving the SDV (vs. those involving the HDV), which subsequently results in higher perceived severity and lower acceptability of the crash. Our results imply that people’s over-reaction to crashes involving SDVs may be a psychological barrier to their adoption and that we may need to forestall a less stringent introduction policy that allows SDVs on public roads as it may lead to more crashes that could possibly deter people from adopting SDVs. We discuss other theoretical and practical implications of our results and suggest potential approaches to de-biasing people’s responses to crashes involving SDVs.
... Introduction Gigerenzer (2004Gigerenzer ( , 2006 published evidence that the attacks in the USA on September 11 th 2001 caused substantially greater loss of life than had been noticed via a secondary psychological dread risk effect. People dread, and are especially averse to, situations where many may be harmed or killed at one point in time, compared to situations in which a similar or even greater number may be harmed or killed, but distributed over a longer period (Slovic, 1987). ...
... Calamitously, because driving is more dangerous than flying (Myers, 2001), the switch resulted in more fatalities than would have occurred if people had continued with their previous pattern of travel. Gigerenzer (2004) estimated the increase in road deaths in the three months following September 11 th 2001 was 353 -exceeding the total number of passengers killed on the four hijacked airplanes; subsequently Gigerenzer (2006) reported an increase of 1,595 in traffic fatalities over the twelve months following the attacks and attributed this increase to a dread risk effect. not differ significantly from total U.S. driving miles in the same months in 1999 and 2000, Su et al. rejected Gigerenzer's claim that there was a notable increase in driving miles in the United States after the September 11 attacks. ...
Article
Full-text available
Following the airplane attacks of September 11th, 2001 it is claimed that many Americans, dreading a repeat of these events, drove instead of flying, and that, consequently, there were extra car accidents, increasing the number of fatalities directly caused by the attacks by 1,500. After the Madrid train bombings of March 11th, 2004, Spaniards, like Americans, avoided the attacked mode of travel, but no increase in car travel or fatal accidents resulted. Here we analyze behavioral concomitants of the July 7th 2005 bomb attacks on public transport in London. We find reduced underground train travel and an increase in rates of bicycling and, over the 6 months following the attacks, 214 additional bicyclist road casualties — a 15.4% increase. Nevertheless we found no detectable increase in car accidents. We conclude that, while fear caused by terrorism may initiate potentially dangerous behaviors, understanding the secondary effects of terrorism requires consideration of the environmental variables that enable fear to manifest in dangerous behaviors.
... (4) These impacts have short-term and longer-term effects on individuals' well-being, their perceptions of future risk, and their policy preferences for addressing these risks, (5,6) such as avoiding modes of transportation associated with a prior attack. (7,8) Though potentially powerful and far-reaching, the longer-term negative effects of terrorist attacks are hardly consistent. Some individuals and communities show resilience in response to attacks, (9,10) experiencing social bonding and communal support as the result of experiencing a shared threat. ...
... (59,61) Conversation within personal networks can thus lead individuals in one social group to dread an outcome that is accepted as normal in another. (8,62) At the same time, interpersonal interaction can also help to enhance social capital that can be leveraged to solve problems (63,64) or provide social support. (3,65) Unfortunately, neither experiments nor surveys are well equipped to handle this variable. ...
Article
Risk research has theorized a number of mechanisms that might trigger, prolong, or potentially alleviate individuals' distress following terrorist attacks. These mechanisms are difficult to examine in a single study, however, because the social conditions of terrorist attacks are difficult to simulate in laboratory experiments and appropriate preattack baselines are difficult to establish with surveys. To address this challenge, we propose the use of computational focus groups and a novel analysis framework to analyze a social media stream that archives user history and location. The approach uses time-stamped behavior to quantify an individual's preattack behavior after an attack has occurred, enabling the assessment of time-specific changes in the intensity and duration of an individual's distress, as well as the assessment of individual and social-level covariates. To exemplify the methodology, we collected over 18 million tweets from 15,509 users located in Paris on November 13, 2015, and measured the degree to which they expressed anxiety, anger, and sadness after the attacks. The analysis resulted in findings that would be difficult to observe through other methods, such as that news media exposure had competing, time-dependent effects on anxiety, and that gender dynamics are complicated by baseline behavior. Opportunities for integrating computational focus group analysis with traditional methods are discussed.
... The complexity, risk, and limited opportunity for control might make trust particularly important in guiding acceptance of self-driving vehicles. Selfdriving vehicles might also induce dread risk-risk that is uncontrollable, not understandable, and has dire consequences (Gigerenzer, 2004;Slovic, 1987;Sunstein & Zeckhauser, 2010). Dread risk leads to disproportionate negative responses to adverse events and can undermine technology acceptance. ...
... The aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 demonstrates the effects of such dread risk relative to the controlled and known risk of driving. After the attacks people shifted behavior to avoid flying and the increased exposure to the more risky mode of travel, led to an increase in motor vehicle fatalities that equaled that of the terrorist attacks (Blalock, Kadiyali, & Simon, 2009;Gigerenzer, 2004). ...
Article
Self-driving vehicles represent potentially transformative technology. But achieving this potential depends on people’s attitudes towards this technology and willingness to use it. Ratings from surveys estimate acceptance, and open-ended comments provide an opportunity to understand the “why” behind the ratings. One way to understand the content of open-ended comments is through computer-based text analytics. A recent survey of 8,571 nationally representative drivers in J.D. Power’s 2017 U.S. Tech Choice StudySM included a rating of willingness to use self-driving vehicles and an associated open-ended response. We present a quantitative analysis of these qualitative, open-ended responses that uses structural topic modeling to reveal the basis of the respondents’ attitudes. Drivers’ attitude towards self-driving vehicles was quite negative: only 11% stated they “definitely would” trust self-driving technology, whereas 35% stated they “definitely would not.” The structural topic modeling identified 10-topics, such as “Many unknowns” and “Don’t trust” that help explain these negative attitudes.
... If a strong negative emotional connection to a risk exists, it can affect an individual's capacity to identify the probabilities of the scenarios, focusing instead on the outcomes that evoke a sense of dread (the affect heuristic). An emotional feeling of dread is an important factor in propelling an individual to act on a risk, risks that are often being associated with outcomes that affect one personally, have a detrimental effect on future generations or present a catastrophic widespread threat to a large number of people (Baumeister et al., 2007;Gigerenzer, 2004;Slovic et al., 1985). Like most theories, the psychological paradigm is not without its critics. ...
... None of the other risk attributes were found to be statistically significant in explaining the risk scores. In considering previous studies in the psychology of risk perceptions, dread would appear frequently as a significant risk attribute in risk perceptions (Gigerenzer, 2004;Slovic et al., 1981). The difference is that within these studies risk matrix scores were not compared to psychological risk attributes. ...
... Terrorism represents a dread risk: an incident that, despite a low probability of actually occurring, inspires a high degree of fear because it could cause a large number of casualties at once (Gigerenzer, 2004;Göritz & Weiss, 2014). This escalated fear level is exacerbated by the inherent uncertainty of terrorist attacks because the more uncertain people are, the more pronounced their fear (Gray & Ropeik, 2002;Sheppard, Rubin, Wardman, & Wessely, 2006). ...
... Government action and perceived social norms had no impact on the escalating fear, and participants showed an increasing likelihood to change their plans around the threat as the levels of fear escalated. This simulated result is echoed in the real-world data analyzed by Gigerenzer (2004) who determined that, as people chose to drive rather than fly following the September 11 terrorist attacks, more people died in traffic accidents than in the plane crashes. ...
... Instead, they assumed a much bigger death risk (by automobile accident) when they opted for travel via roadways rather than airways. Gigerenzer (2004) examined air travel, highway traffic, and fatal traffic accidents for the 3 months following September 11 and his analysis revealed not only that air travel decreased and highway traffic increased, but that an additional 350 people died of traffic accidents during this period, more than the approximately 250 people who died on airplanes September 11, 2001. Similar findings were observed by Lopez- Rousseau (2005) who tracked people's transportation choices following the March 2004 terrorist train bombing in Spain which killed approximately 200 people. ...
... One reason for the less lethal response to terrorism appears to be due to the Spanish reducing both forms of travel (automobile and train) in the immediate aftermath of the terrorist bombing. Both studies (Gigerenzer, 2004;Lopez-Rousseau, 2005; see also Myers, 2001) are consistent with the claim that distressing events can produce affective influences on estimates of relative risk outside of the social science laboratory. ...
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Manuscript Under Review: This is not the authoritative document of record, but rather a draft of the document which is currently under peer review at a scholarly journal.
... In a digital environment that develops at a fast pace, risk and digital information literacy are more important than ever. Research shows that risk perception may be distorted if explanations are missing, when actually accurate information is presented in a format that is not well-tuned to the cognitive system of recipients, or when the risks involve low-probability events with particularly threatening consequences (Slovic 2010;Gigerenzer 2015). For instance, people have difficulties in understanding what it actually means when today's weather report announces a 30% chance of rain, or when a public health organization posts that the relative risk of thrombosis increases by 100% when taking a contraceptive pill. ...
... Serious incidents such as the terrorist attacks on September 11 and perhaps COVID-19 incite strong emotions and increase perceived risks way beyond their actual probability. Gigerenzer (2004) showed that in the three months following September 11, American citizens reduced air travel which in turn led to a substantial increase in fatal car accidents. In order to reduce such hazards, public policy making seems to face the difficult task to not only consider direct, objective risks but also to take factors into account that influence public risk perception and to predict the corresponding behavioral consequences. ...
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Research on infodemics, i.e., the rapid spread of (mis)information related to a hazardous event, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, requires the integration of a multiplicity of scientific disciplines. The dynamics emerging from infodemics have the potential to generate complex behavioral patterns. In order to react appropriately, it is of ultimate importance for the fields of Business and Economics to understand the dynamics emerging from it. In the short run, dynamics might lead to an adaptation in household spending or to a shift in buying behavior towards online providers. In the long run, changes in investments, consumer behavior, and markets are to be expected. We argue that the dynamics emerge from complex interactions among multiple factors, such as information and misinformation accessible for individuals and the formation and revision of beliefs. (Mis)information accessible to individuals is, amongst others, affected by algorithms specifically designed to provide personalized information, while automated fact-checking algorithms can help reduce the amount of circulating misinformation. The formation and revision of individual (and probably false) beliefs and individual fact-checking and interpretation of information are heavily affected by linguistic patterns inherent to information during pandemics and infodemics and further factors, such as affect, intuition and motives. We argue that, in order to get a deep(er) understanding of the dynamics emerging from infodemics, the fields of Business and Economics should integrate the perspectives of Computer Science and Information Systems, (Computational) Linguistics, and Cognitive Science into the wider context of economic systems (e.g., organizations, markets or industries) and propose a way to do so. As research on infodemics is a strongly interdisciplinary field and the integration of the above-mentioned disciplines is a first step towards a holistic approach, we conclude with a call to action which should encourage researchers to collaborate across scientific disciplines and unfold collective creativity which will push forward research on infodemics substantially.
... Le succès des nudges a déjà été démontré dans de nombreux secteurs, dont celui de la prévention en santé publique où ils furent utilisés pour favoriser le don d'organes (Johnson & Goldstein, 2003), limiter le gaspillage alimentaire (Freedman & Brochado, 2010) ou limiter le nombre d'accidents routier (Gigerenzer, 2004). Au vu de ses nombreux effets bénéfiques et de sa facilité d'application, son utilisation a désormais dépassé les frontières universitaires et s'applique à d'autres secteurs dont l'écologie. ...
Article
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Dans le cadre du label Cit’ergie et du Plan Climat Énergie Territorial (PCET) inscrit à son Agenda 21, la Ville de Rouen s’est engagée à diminuer de 38% les émissions de gaz à effet de serre de son patrimoine durant la période 2011-2021. Pour y parvenir, une action complémentaire, oscillant entre la recherche-action et la recherche-intervention, fut mise en place en partenariat avec l’Université de Rouen. La finalité de cette action expérimentale était d’accompagner aux changements de comportement les trois clubs sportifs (i.e., l’ASPTT lutte, le SPO Rouen Tennis de table et l’Élan Gymnique Rouennais) du gymnase Colette Besson situé à Rouen, et ce, pour un triple objectif (i.e., environnemental, économique et social). Plusieurs théories de la psychologie sociale furent utilisées (i.e., la théorie de l’engagement, la procédure de l’acquiescement répété, l’implémentation d’intention et les nudges) afin de rendre les clubs sportifs acteur de la performance énergétique du site et qu’ils co-construisent une « Charte du sport écoresponsable », symbole de leur engagement. Bien que cette action nécessite de s’inscrire dans le temps pour pouvoir observer ses effets à long terme, nous pouvons d’ores et déjà constater les effets à court terme de la complémentarité de ces stratégies engageantes. Ainsi, depuis le premier acte engageant effectué par les trois clubs sportifs (i.e., Avril 2018), une diminution significative (28%) de la consommation d’électricité du site a été observée.
... Emotions about potential outcomes of the decision, called integral anticipatory emotions, are often seen as mediators of maladaptive behavior. For instance, fear of a plane crash makes people choose to travel by car instead, which is more risky (Gigerenzer, 2004). Anger about an unfair offer makes people choose to engage in costly aggression thereby sacrificing their own profit (Matarazzo, Pizzini, Greco, & Carpentieri, 2016;Pillutla & Murninghan, 1996;Sanfey, Rilling, Aronson, Nystrom, & Cohen, 2003). ...
Article
The paper sketches the historical development from emotion as a mysterious entity and the source of maladaptive behaviour, to emotion as a collection of ingredients and the source of also adaptive behaviour. We argue, however, that the underlying mechanism proposed to take care of this adaptive behaviour is not entirely up for its task. We outline an alternative view that explains so-called emotional behaviour with the same mechanism as non-emotional behaviour, but that is at the same time more likely to produce adaptive behaviour. The phenomena that were initially seen as requiring a separate emotional mechanism to influence and cause behaviour can also be explained by a goal-directed mechanism provided that more goals and other complexities inherent in the goal-directed process are taken into account.
... Second, the perception of members of the general public can be important in their own right. People's perceptions of risks, rightly or wrongly, can drive their behaviors (for example, Gigerenzer's finding that people's fear of the aviation sector after 9/11 drove them to the relatively riskier mode of transportation of driving, Gigerenzer 2004). Third, as the US is a representative government, the views of the people should be taken into account to at least some extent. ...
Article
Reliably managing homeland security risks requires an understanding of which risks are more concerning than others. This paper applies a validated risk ranking methodology, the Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks, to the homeland security domain. This method provides a structured approach to elicit risk rankings from participants based on deliberative consideration of science-based risk assessments. Steps in this effort include first identifying the set of attributes that must be covered when describing terrorism and disaster hazards in a comprehensive manner, then developing concise summaries of existing knowledge of a broad set of homeland security hazards. Using these materials, the study elicits relative concerns about the hazards that are being considered. The relative concerns about hazards provide a starting point for prioritizing solutions for reducing risks to homeland security. The consistency and agreement of the rankings, as well as the individual satisfaction with the process and results, suggest that the Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks can be appropriately applied in the homeland security domain. The rankings themselves reflected greater concern over natural disasters than terrorist events. This research suggests that deliberative risk ranking methods could provide a valid and reliable description of individuals’ concerns about homeland security risks to inform strategic planning.
... Those who are induced with a negative mood have more pessimistic estimates of fatalities. Other research has shown that integral emotions can lead to biased decision making, even in the presence of cognitive information suggesting alternative courses of action (Gigerenzer 2004, Loewenstein 1996Loewenstein et al. 2001). Undeniably, emotions are drivers in many of the decisions that people make (Lerner, Li, Valdesolo, and Kassam 2015), including the decision to trash versus recycle a product. ...
Article
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This article proposes a utilitarian model in which recycling could reduce consumers’ negative emotions from wasting resources (i.e., taking more resources than what is being consumed) and increase consumers’ positive emotions from the disposal of consumed resources. The authors provide evidence for each component of the utility function using a series of choice problems, and formulate hypotheses based on a parsimonious utilitarian model. Experiments with real disposal behavior support the model hypotheses. The findings suggest that the positive emotions associated with recycling can overpower the negative emotions associated with wasting. As a result, consumers could use a larger amount of resource when recycling is an option and more strikingly, this amount could go beyond the point at which their marginal consumption utility becomes zero. The authors extend the theoretical model and introduce acquisition utility and the moderating effect of cost of recycling (financial, physical, and mental). From a policy perspective, this research argues for a better understanding of consumers’ disposal behavior to increase the effectiveness of environmental policies and campaigns.
... The final category reflects worries regarding organizational issues (e.g., delays or missing luggage) and has not featured in the majority of descriptions of the primary fears of flying phobics. An additional concern relates to the likelihood of terrorist activity when flying, and many individuals report increases in worry and avoidance of flying following reports of plane-related terrorist incidents (Bergstrom and McCaul, 2004;Gigerenzer, 2004). ...
Article
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Flying phobia is a highly prevalent anxiety disorder, which causes sufferers significant distress and life interference. The processes which maintain flying phobia remain poorly understood. A systematic search of the literature was performed to identify what research has been conducted into the processes which may be involved in the fear of flying and whether processes which are believed to maintain other anxiety disorder diagnoses have been investigated in flying phobia. The results of the literature review are presented and related to existing cognitive behavioral theory and research. The results indicate that little research has been conducted into a number of areas considered important in the wider cognitive behavioral literature on anxiety disorders: namely attention, mental imagery, memory, worry, and safety-seeking behaviors. The review proposes a hypothetical model, derived from cognitive behavioral theory, for the processes which may be involved in maintaining flying phobia, and considers a number of areas for future research.
... Evidence for the view that integral emotions could be a beneficial guide of decision making comes mainly from behavioral studies on brain-damaged patients, the injuries of whom in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex reduce both patients' ability to feel emotion and the quality of their decisions, which cannot be simply explained by the deterioration of their cognitive abilities (Bechara, Damasio, Damasio, & Lee, 1999). Despite arising from the judgment or decision at hand, integral emotions can also bias decision making (Gigerenzer, 2004). Incidental emotions pervasively carry over from one situation to the next, affecting decisions that should be unrelated to that emotion (Lerner & Keltner, 2000). ...
Article
Incidental emotions, which are irrelevant to the current decision, play a significant role in the decision-making process. In this study, to investigate the influence of incidental emotions on behavioral, psychological, and electrophysiological responses in the process of decision making, participants were required to perform a monetary gambling task. During the selection stage, an emotional picture, which was chosen from the Chinese Affective Picture System and fell into one of three categories: negative, neutral, and positive, was presented between two alternatives (small/large amount of bet). The pictures were provided to induce incidental emotions. ERPs and self-rating emotional experiences to outcome feedback were recorded during the task. Behavioral results showed that positive incidental emotions elicited risk preference, but emotional experiences to outcome feedback were not influenced by incidental emotions. The feedback-related negativity amplitudes were larger in the positive emotion condition than in the negative and neutral emotion conditions for small outcomes (including wins and losses), whereas there was no difference between the three conditions for large outcomes. In addition, the amplitudes of P3 were reduced overall in the negative emotion condition. We suggest that incidental emotions have modulated both the option assessment stage (manifested in behavioral choices) and the outcome evaluation stage (manifested in ERP amplitudes) of decision making unconsciously (indicated by unchanged subjective emotional experiences). The current findings have expanded our understanding of the role of incidental emotion in decision making.
... Several of our hypotheses were supported. We replicated previous research showing that people who perceived road travel as risky reported behaving more safely (Gigerenzer 2004;Ivers et al. 2009;Kuttschreuter 2006;McCool et al. 2009). Our results supported models positing that perceived risk is a driver of protective behaviour (Ajzen 1985;Becker and Rosenstock 1987;Dejoy 1996). ...
Article
This study clarifies the associations between accident history, perception of the riskiness of road travel, and traffic safety behaviours by taking into account the number and severity of accidents experienced. A sample of 525 road users in Cameroon answered a questionnaire comprising items on perception of risk, safe behaviour, and personal accident history. Participants who reported involvement in more than three accidents or involvement in a severe accident perceived road travel as less risky and also reported behaving less safely compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. The results have practical implications for the prevention of traffic accidents.
... Individuals are known to suffer from a number of psychological frailties and cognitive biases, including the following: • Framing -The way a question is presented or framed can influence the response received (Tversky & Kahneman 1981, Plous 1993 Availability -Judgements of probability may be influenced by the ease with which an event is recalled. Events may be judged to have a higher probability of occurrence than is really the case if they are recent, invoke strong emotions or have been widely reported (Tversky & Kahneman 1973, Plous 1993, Gigerenzer 2004 Anchoring and adjustment -The tendency to base quantitative estimates on values that been previously suggested or estimated (Tversky & Kahneman 1974) coupled with an inability to adjust sufficiently far from the anchor (Epsley & Gilovich 2006) • Overconfidence -When experts have unwarranted confidence in their own judgments (Oskamp 1965) Using a group of experts instead of just one individual draws on a wider range of experience than could be achieved with just a single individual and avoids judgements that reflect only the cognitive biases of a single individual. An early example of what Surowiecki (2004) has labelled "the wisdom of crowds" dates back to an agricultural show in the early 1900s when 787 entries in a competition to judge the dressed weight of an ox were summarised by Galton (1907). ...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Full report available at: http://www.frdc.com.au/research/final-reports/Pages/2015-035-DLD.aspx
... The propositions advanced in this article are also robust to people's tendency to give lowprobability high-impact events disproportionately greater attention than high-probability lowimpact events, leading to dread-risk avoidance (Gigerenzer, 2004). Since low-probability high-impact events can be brought about by both omission and commission decisions (Slovic, 2000), and so both directions of risk-type preference shifts can be affected. ...
Article
The behavioral literature examines how performance feedback drives risky change. In this conceptual article, I incorporate the overlooked alternative to risky change: not changing and the risk associated with such omission. After all, both commissions and omissions can have extensive outcome variability. I propose that firms alter their preference for the type or risk, depending on how well they fared with their previous preference. I then further qualify these shifts in two ways: I discuss the extent of risk that firms are likely to take in the form of omissions and commissions, respectively, and I consider the frequency and magnitude with which the shifts are likely to occur. Theory of risk-type preference shifts may explain and reconcile seemingly disparate prior findings on risk-taking in response to performance feedback. To facilitate future research on firm behavior and resource allocation in dynamic environments, I provide three testable propositions and suggest ways to operationalize the new constructs.
... BSE caused the development of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) -a fatal neurodegenerative prion disease contracted from the ingestion of infected meat products. As a risk factor vCJD was deeply concerning in part because there was no cure, but also because the long incubation period meant that victims often developed the symptoms decades after the original infection - an insidious, low probability-high impact, "dread" risk in psychological terms (see Gigerenzer 2004). These failures of public scientific authorities to keep the public safe, so to speak, from such risks led to declining levels of trust in science and scientists in the UK, and the resolution of this problem became an important focus for leading scientific institutions. ...
Book
Full-text available
The question of what to do with radioactive waste has dogged political administrations of nuclear-powered electricity-producing nations since the inception of the technology in the 1950s. As the issue rises to the forefront of current energy and environmental policy debates, a critical policy analysis of radioactive waste management in the UK provides important insights for the future. Nuclear Waste Politics sets out a detailed historical and social scientific analysis of radioactive waste management and disposal in the UK from the 1950s up to the present day; drawing international comparisons with Sweden, Finland, Canada and the US. A theoretical framework is presented for analysing nuclear politics: blending literatures on technology policy, environmental ethics and the geography and politics of scale. The book proffers a new theory of "ethical incrementalism" and practical policy suggestions to facilitate a fair and efficient siting process for radioactive waste management facilities. The book argues that a move away from centralised, high capital investment national siting towards a regional approach using deep borehole disposal, could resolve many of the problems that the high stakes, inflexible "megaproject" approach has caused across the world. This book is an important resource for academics and researchers in the areas of environmental management, energy policy, and science and technology studies.
... Bij de aanslagen op de WTC-torens in 2001 werden er ongeveer drieduizend doden geteld bij de aanslagen zelf. Men schat echter dat er nog eens duizend extra doden gevallen zijn, namelijk mensen die door die aanslagen schrik hadden gekregen om het vliegtuig te nemen en met de auto verongelukt zijn (Gigerenzer, 2004). ...
Article
Full-text available
Because of the way the human brain functions, we are very susceptible to making mistakes. In this article, twenty thinking errors, which may lead to wrong diagnoses and treatments in veterinary medicine, are described. How sensitive we are in making these mistakes depends rather on rationality than on intelligence. Rationality can be measured and trained, but only if we realize there is a problem in the first place.
... consequence events, associated with fear and avoidant behaviours (cf. Gigerenzer, 2004)-are prone to overestimation bias ( Lerner, Gonzalez, Small, & Fischhoff, 2003;). "Dread risks" in dementia might include serious outcomes such as causing a fire in the home or being involved in a road traffic collision. ...
Article
Supporting people to live at home in line with community care policies requires increasing attention to assessing, communicating and managing risks. There is a challenge in supporting client choices that include risk-taking while demonstrating professional accountability. Risk communication becomes increasingly important with the need to engage clients and families in meaningful shared decision-making. This presents particular challenges in dementia services. This survey of risk communication in dementia care was administered to all health and social care professionals in community dementia services in Northern Ireland: June–September 2016. Of 270 professionals, 70 questionnaires were fully completed, with 55 partial completions. Scores on the Berlin Numeracy Test plus Schwartz items was low-moderate (mean 2.79 out of 7). This study did not find a significant association between numeracy and accurate perceptions of risk likelihoods in practice-based scenarios. Although 86% reported using numeric information in practice (mostly from assessment tools), respondents rarely communicated themselves using numbers. As in other domains, participants’ responses were widely variable on numeric estimates of verbal terms for likelihood. In relation to medication side effects, few participants provided responses that were concordant with those in the guidance of the European Union. The risks most commonly encountered in practice were (in rank order): falls, depression, poor personal hygiene, medicines mismanagement, leaving home unsupervised, financial mismanagement, malnutrition, swallowing difficulties, abuse from others, risks to others, home appliance accidents and refusing equipment. Respondents generally overestimated the likelihood of serious harmful events by approximately 10-fold (having a missing person's report filed with the police; having a fall resulting in hospitalisation) and by approximately double (being involved in a car accident; causing a home fire), and with wide variation between respondents. There is potential in icon arrays for communicating risks. Risk literacy among dementia care practitioners needs to be developed.
... For self-driving vehicleswhere the vehicle is responsible for drivingthe complexity, risk, and limited opportunity for control might lead to undertrusting the automation (Claybrook & Kildare, 2018;Kaur & Rampersad, 2018). Lack of trust may leave drivers susceptible to dread risk-a heightened feeling of risk when the risk is uncontrollable, not understandable, and has dire consequences (Gigerenzer, 2004;Slovic, 1987;Sunstein & Zeckhauser, 2010). Dread risk leads to disproportionate negative responses to adverse events and can undermine technology acceptance. ...
Article
Full-text available
Objective: This study examined attitudes toward self-driving vehicles and the factors motivating those attitudes. Background: Self-driving vehicles represent potentially transformative technology, but achieving this potential depends on consumers' attitudes. Ratings from surveys estimate these attitudes, and open-ended comments provide an opportunity to understand their basis. Method: A nationally representative sample of 7,947 drivers in 2016 and 8,517 drivers in 2017 completed the J.D. Power U.S. Tech Choice Study SM , which included a rating for level of trust with self-driving vehicles and associated open-ended comments. These open-ended comments are qualitative data that can be analyzed quantitatively using structural topic modeling. Structural topic modeling identifies common themes, extracts prototypical comments for each theme, and assesses how the survey year and rating affect the prevalence of these themes. Results: Structural topic modeling identified 13 topics, such as "Tested for a long time," which was strongly associated with positive ratings, and "Hacking & glitches," which was strongly associated with negative ratings. The topics of "Self-driving accidents" and "Trust when mature" were more prominent in 2017 compared with 2016. Conclusion: Structural topic modeling reveals reasons underlying consumer attitudes toward vehicle automation. These reasons align with elements typically associated with trust in automation, as well as elements that mediate perceived risk, such as the desire for control as well as societal, relational, and experiential bases of trust. Application: The analysis informs the debate concerning how safe is safe enough for automated vehicles and provides initial indicators of what makes such vehicles feel safe and trusted.
... Despite arising from the judgment or decision at hand, integral emotions can also bias decision making. For example, one may feel afraid to fly and decide to drive instead, even though base rates for death by driving are much higher than are base rates for death by flying the equivalent mileage (Gigerenzer 2004). Integral emotions can be remarkably influential even in the presence of cognitive information that would suggest alternative courses of action (for review, see Loewenstein 1996). ...
Article
Family members are the primary source of support for older adults with chronic illness and disability. Thousands of published empirical studies and dozens of reviews have documented the psychological and physical health effects of caregiving, identified caregivers at risk for adverse outcomes, and evaluated a wide range of intervention strategies to support caregivers. Caregiving as chronic stress exposure is the conceptual driver for much of this research. We review and synthesize the literature on the impact of caregiving and intervention strategies for supporting caregivers. The impact of caregiving is highly variable, driven largely by the intensity of care provided and the suffering of the care recipient. The intervention literature is littered with many failures and some successes. Successful interventions address both the pragmatics of care and the emotional toll of caregiving. We conclude with both research and policy recommendations that address a national agenda for caregiving.
... Over time, this has given rise to a wealth of dual-process models that seek to carve out and understand the particular influence and application of affect and emotion for decisionmaking [102][103][104]. According to this approach, the effect of emotion is often to function as a bias that inhibits judgment and decision making or warps individual perceptions of risk, e.g. about the relative consequences of flying versus driving ( [105][106][107]. In this regard, Loewenstein and colleagues ( [108][109][110]) have widely revealed how affective and emotional experiences such as fear, anger, hunger, and pain often even dominate decision processes. ...
Article
Social acceptance of innovative technologies is a key element of an effective transition towards more sustainable energy economies. However, innovative technologies like genetic modification also tend to spark controversy and backlash. So far, efforts to inform the public about any risks and benefits of novel technologies not only have struggled to foster acceptance but also neglect the interdependent foundations of consumer decision-making. Through a controlled experiment with German consumers (N = 322), we examine whether consumer support and rejection of genetic modification in bioenergy crops is influenced by the statements and actions of actors throughout the supply chain. In specific, we show that the decision of energy companies to sell and support GM bioenergy positively impacts consumer decisions to support. To ensure that decision outcomes were specifically impacted by the expressions of corporate actors, we controlled for the content and valence of information by random assignment to one of three treatments in which participants received positive, negative, or balanced (risks and benefits) information. We find that negative messaging diminished support and increased rejection relative to the other treatments. Lastly, the statements and actions of corporate actors also exerted an indirect influence on consumer decisions through their interactions with social trust and labels, e.g. greater support by farmers had a positive influence only for those who are more generally trustworthy. Given these results, we anticipate more attention to the importance of actors such as farmers and energy companies for the social acceptance of novel technologies in the energy sphere.
... Whilst low-probability, high-consequence events may be a cause of mortality, attempts to avoid perceived risks may also result in harms to health. For example, an increase in road travel in the US following the deaths of air passengers in 9/11 (i.e people avoiding the 'dread risk' of air travel) has been associated with a higher level of fatal road crashes (Gigerenzer, 2004). This highlights the importance of raising public awareness of possible psychological reactions to catastrophic events and the potential risks associated with behaviour changes that are intended to avoid these risks. ...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This report aims to provide a briefing on the extent and impacts of violent extremism in the UK, our current understanding of risk and protective factors, and emerging practice for prevention. The report applies public health principles in considering a life course perspective for individual vulnerability and the impact of issues such as childhood adversity, social isolation and acculturative stress, whilst at the same time using the prevention paradox to understand the need to work on a universal footprint and build resilient and cohesive communities that are free from the appeals of violence.
... Whilst low-probability, high-consequence events may be a cause of mortality, attempts to avoid perceived risks may also result in harms to health. For example, an increase in road travel in the US following the deaths of air passengers in 9/11 (i.e people avoiding the 'dread risk' of air travel) has been associated with a higher level of fatal road crashes (Gigerenzer, 2004). This highlights the importance of raising public awareness of possible psychological reactions to catastrophic events and the potential risks associated with behaviour changes that are intended to avoid these risks. ...
Book
Full-text available
The UK faces a complex and evolving threat of violent extremism (VE) and terrorism (see Glossary for definition of terms). These severe and often indiscriminate acts of violence have far-reaching and devastating individual and population health effects, impacting the wellbeing of the public across all aspects of society and contributing to the erosion of social trust and the spread of prejudice and fear. The current criminal justice framework in the UK targets those most at risk of developing violent extremist ideologies; often within the criminal space (see section 1.3). However, drawing on learning and principles from public health offers an opportunity to extend our understanding of risk and protective factors for violent extremist ideologies. Such an approach supports prevention policies and programmes that work upstream to address the multitude of needs individuals vulnerable to VE may have, and also work on a universal footprint to promote societies and communities that are cohesive, resilient and free from the appeals of violence. To explore the opportunities and support for a UK-wide public health response to extremist violence that complements existing criminal justice strategies, this document provides a briefing on the extent, broader impacts and risk and protective factors for VE. It then suggests options for the future development of a public health approach to preventing VE.
... For self-driving vehicleswhere the vehicle is responsible for drivingthe complexity, risk, and limited opportunity for control might lead to undertrusting the automation (Claybrook & Kildare, 2018;Kaur & Rampersad, 2018). Lack of trust may leave drivers susceptible to dread risk-a heightened feeling of risk when the risk is uncontrollable, not understandable, and has dire consequences (Gigerenzer, 2004;Slovic, 1987;Sunstein & Zeckhauser, 2010). Dread risk leads to disproportionate negative responses to adverse events and can undermine technology acceptance. ...
Article
Objective This study examined attitudes toward self-driving vehicles and the factors motivating those attitudes. Background Self-driving vehicles represent potentially transformative technology, but achieving this potential depends on consumers’ attitudes. Ratings from surveys estimate these attitudes, and open-ended comments provide an opportunity to understand their basis. Method A nationally representative sample of 7,947 drivers in 2016 and 8,517 drivers in 2017 completed the J.D. Power U.S. Tech Choice Study SM , which included a rating for level of trust with self-driving vehicles and associated open-ended comments. These open-ended comments are qualitative data that can be analyzed quantitatively using structural topic modeling. Structural topic modeling identifies common themes, extracts prototypical comments for each theme, and assesses how the survey year and rating affect the prevalence of these themes. Results Structural topic modeling identified 13 topics, such as “Tested for a long time,” which was strongly associated with positive ratings, and “Hacking & glitches,” which was strongly associated with negative ratings. The topics of “Self-driving accidents” and “Trust when mature” were more prominent in 2017 compared with 2016. Conclusion Structural topic modeling reveals reasons underlying consumer attitudes toward vehicle automation. These reasons align with elements typically associated with trust in automation, as well as elements that mediate perceived risk, such as the desire for control as well as societal, relational, and experiential bases of trust. Application The analysis informs the debate concerning how safe is safe enough for automated vehicles and provides initial indicators of what makes such vehicles feel safe and trusted.
... When dreadful consequences of different events become more vivid and available, they are likely to elicit negative emotions. 25,26 For example, Gigerenzer 27 documented that after the September 11th terrorist attacks, many people started to avoid air travel, which eventually resulted in increased road traffic fatalities. A subsequent analysis of this effect 28 revealed that living closer to New York City predicted the increase in miles driven by car, which in turn predicted fatal traffic accidents. ...
Article
Full-text available
Background: According to decision by sampling theory, people store relative frequencies of events in memory, and these values constitute subjective representations of events. Because fear is a natural response to the threat of death, we hypothesized that case fatality rate (CFR) statistics, which represent how deadly a disease is, would be positively correlated with self-reported fear ratings of neoplasms and circulatory diseases. Methods: Participants ( N = 239) were asked to rate various neoplasms and circulatory diseases (110 diseases in total) on fear, typicality, and disgust scales (e.g., 1 = no fear, 10 = intense fear). They also estimated mortality and morbidity rates for the same set of diseases. Finally, they completed the Berlin Numeracy Test. CFRs were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) database. The association between relative CFR and fear ratings was tested using correlation analyses and a multilevel linear model with Bayesian inference techniques. Results: We found that fear ratings were related to relative CFRs ( r = 0.42, [0.25, 0.56], BF = 3511). This effect was present on aggregate and, to some extent, on individual levels, even after controlling for other ratings, morbidity rate, participants' estimates of mortality and morbidity statistics, numeracy, sex, age, and knowledge of WHO statistics. Also, women rated neoplasms as more frightening than circulatory diseases, and typicality ratings were related to morbidity rates. Limitations: Limited number of diagnostic entities and categories, lack of control over the technicality of disease names and participants' experience of diseases, and study sample (83% young women). Conclusions: We present initial evidence that implicit acquisition of CFRs of diseases through everyday experience may be related to the intensity of fear reactions to them.
... 19 An infographic comparing comparative 'dread' risks is included to help patients situate their CVD risk alongside other causes of mortality. 20 We used survival framing to encourage risk-averse choices in terms of medication taking 21 and positive framing of messages to highlight alternative benefits of making healthy behaviours. 22 The Risk Report is printed in greyscale on four sides of A4 and includes information on local lifestyle change support services. ...
Article
Full-text available
Objective The NHS Health Check programme is a public screening and prevention initiative in England to detect early signs of cardiovascular ill health among healthy adults. We aimed to explore patient perspectives and experiences of a personalised Risk Report designed to improve cardiovascular risk communication in the NHS Health Check. Design and setting This is a qualitative study with NHS Health Check attendees in three general practices in the London Borough of Newham. Intervention and participants A personalised Risk Report for the NHS Health Check was developed to improve communication of results and advice. The Risk Report was embedded in the electronic health record, printed with auto-filled results and used as a discussion aid during the NHS Health Check, and was a take-home record of information and advice on risk reduction for the attendees. 18 purposively sampled socially diverse participants took part in semistructured interviews, which were analysed thematically. Results For most participants, the NHS Health Check was an opportunity for reassurance and assessment, and the Risk Report was an enduring record that supported risk understanding, with impact beyond the individual. For a minority, ambivalence towards the Risk Report occurred in the context of attending for other reasons, and risk and lifestyle advice were not internalised or acted on. Conclusion Our findings demonstrate the potential of a personalised Risk Report as a useful intervention in NHS Health Checks for enhancing patient understanding of cardiovascular risk and strategies for risk reduction. Also highlighted are the challenges that must be overcome to ensure transferability of these benefits to diverse patient groups. Trial registration number NCT02486913 .
Chapter
Antiterrorism has brought major changes across the globe in all disciplines such as: law, economics, science, politics, culture, and religion over the last few decades. In this chapter, I have explained the ways in which the antiterrorism paradigm has its root in the colonial paradigm. Parallels are drawn between colonialism by the British and antiterrorism regimes in South Asia. It is established that the antiterrorism measures are broadly similar to and somewhat a result of measures taken against troublesome areas in British India. These measures have had deep and long-lasting effects without any success in providing human security.
Chapter
In diesem Kapitel werden drei zentrale Urteilsheuristiken vorgestellt. Heuristiken sind einfache Faustregeln, anhand derer Menschen in kurzer Zeit relativ komplexe Entscheidungen treffen können – und das meist hinreichend genau. Allerdings können sie auch zu systematischen Urteilsverzerrungen führen. Es wird zunächst auf die Repräsentativitätsheuristik eingegangen, bei der Urteile aufgrund der Repräsentativität eines Urteilgegenstands beispielsweise für eine Kategorie getroffen werden. Im Anschluss wird die Verfügbarkeitsheuristik eingeführt. Bei dieser wird insbesondere die Empfindung von Leichtigkeit beim Informationsabruf als Grundlage für Urteile genutzt. Zum Abschluss wird die Ankerheuristik besprochen, bei der ein Urteil an einen Ausgangswert angeglichen wird. Fehleinschätzungen, wie sie aufgrund des Gebrauchs von Heuristiken auftreten können, geben Aufschlüsse darüber, wie Menschen mit begrenzten kognitiven Ressourcen in einer komplexen Welt Entscheidungen treffen.
Chapter
Zahlreiche Maßnahmen, die der Bekämpfung des Terrorismus dienen sollen, sind von fragwürdigem Nutzen. Wieso gelangen sie dennoch auf die politische Agenda? Um die Hintergründe und Grundlagen der Entscheidungen für bestimmte Maßnahmen besser verstehen und systematischer erforschen zu können, schlagen wir eine explorative Forschungsagenda vor, die auf drei unterschiedlichen Entscheidungs-und Handlungslogiken beruht: der Logik der strategischen Aushandlung, des symbolischen Handelns und des kulturbedingten Verhaltens. Daraus leiten wir drei Sichtweisen auf die Terrorismusbekämpfung ab: Terrorismusbekämpfung als Möglichkeitsraum betont, dass politische Unternehmer Gelegenheitsfenster nutzen, um ihre präferierten Politiken durchzusetzen; Terrorismusbekämpfung als Signalisierungsstrategie unterstreicht die symbolische Bedeutung politischer Entscheidungen, bei denen es vor allem auf Sichtbarkeit ankommt; Terrorismusbekämpfung als kulturelle Praxis verweist auf kulturelle und habituelle Standards, durch die bestimmte Maßnahmen als naturgegeben erscheinen, während andere von vornherein ausgeschlossen werden. Wir illustrieren das Erklärungspotenzial dieser drei Perspektiven, die wir als komplementär betrachten, anhand von Beispielen aus westlichen Demokratien.
Article
The United States Department of Homeland Security manages a wide spectrum of risks involving crime, terrorism, accidents, and natural disasters. This paper supports disaster management by identifying which attributes should be used to describe risks comprehensively and assessing the need to incorporate such multiattribute information into risk management processes. Attributes for describing homeland security risks were selected through a literature review. These attributes were then used in a risk assessment of homeland security hazards that informed risk ranking sessions conducted with members of the general public. The results taken together support the use of a range of attributes and perspectives. While aspects of life/health and economic damage were considered most important by both experts and the lay public, other attributes were of widespread importance, including attributes related to dread and uncertainty. These results demonstrate how to present risks in a deliberative risk management process and the importance of doing so using a complete set of attributes to describe the risks.
Chapter
Salvific exclusivists believe that there are necessary conditions that must be met before salvation can be attained. Different salvific exclusivists believe in different necessary conditions. Common necessary conditions include: belief in the cardinal tenets of a particular religion, membership of a particular religious organization, conduct of particular religious practices and the avoidance of other practices. Salvific exclusivism stands in contrast with salvific pluralism. Salvific pluralists such as Himma (2002) hold that there is no set of conditions necessary for salvation. On this view, members of many religions are eligible for salvation, and their actual salvation depends on God’s consideration of their individual merits. A middle position between these two extremes is one that might be referred to as ‘salvific preferentialism’. This is the view that, although God favours those who hold certain religious beliefs, conduct certain religious practices, or are members of particular religious organizations; when deciding whom to grant salvation to, God does not apply hard and fast rules, and will consider the individual merits of those who lack the beliefs, practices and/or organizational membership required for preferential consideration.
Article
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Wat beweegt de kiezer ? Over de betekenis van weloverwogen en geïnformeerde keuzes voor gezondheid en preventie
Article
Three studies examine the impact of an anger manipulation on threat perception among Northeastern University students after the Boston Marathon bombings. Data collection for one experiment began within 24 hours of the bombings. Results suggest that the impact of anger on threat perception differed during the week of the bombings compared to 1 and 5 months later. During the week of the bombings only, participants experiencing anger were less sensitive to the distinction between threats and nonthreats, and more biased toward perceiving all stimuli as threatening relative to control participants. We discuss potential mechanisms for these effects and the need for more rapid response research in the wake of incidents of mass violence.
Chapter
The commercial airliner hijackings and crashes on September 11, 2001, confounded the traditionally dominant US narrative of the American Dream, which has persistently and pervasively featured optimism and belief in a just world that affirms and rewards self-determination. This shattering of a worldview fundamental to mainstream US experience and cultural understanding has manifested as a cultural trauma throughout popular culture in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Popular press oral histories, literary fiction, television, and film are among the multiple, ubiquitous sites evidencing preoccupations with existential crisis, vulnerability, and moral ambivalence, with fate, no-win scenarios, and anti-heroes now pervading commonly told and readily accessible stories.
Thesis
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This thesis was built around the question: "What is the possible added value of Argument Mapping (AM) for organizations? In order to find an answer to this question, a two-pronged study was carried out: of the subject AM on the one hand and the decision making process on the other hand. Having discussed these topics separately, the two were brought together in an in-depth analysis. Finally, the added value of AM was also compared with that of other tools and methods to support decision making.
Chapter
In this chapter, Louis Morris argues that more than any other products, the benefits of medical products are inherently counterbalanced by their risks. Adequate risk communication is essential to assure that: (1) people can weigh product risks and benefits to make informed product usage decision. (2) Threats to health are avoided when the products are taken and (3) people can monitor their health for signs of product adverse effects. Legally, product labels must convey truthful information about risks and benefits. Truthful information includes summarizing risks in a fashion that thoroughly explains their precise nature and fairly balances benefit claims with product risk information. To avoid deceptive claims, understanding how people interpret product information is essential. Human use dual information processing systems: a fast processes that reacts emotionally to threats (System I) and a slower system that more systematically weights benefits and risks (System 2). These two information processing systems may interact to bias the way in which information is understood leading to emotional rather than thoughtful risk-benefit decisions. Drafters of risks communications need to understand how the information will be used and incorporate styles of presentation based on the nature of the product use decision and the manner in which people process the information.
Chapter
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Post-apocalyptic fiction taps into the deepest springs of ancient and evolved emotions, but it found in modernity a particularly hospitable cultural ecology and a particularly receptive audience. Focusing on post-apocalyptic English language science fiction and horror literature of the Cold War era, I argue that a biocultural analytical framework is indispensable to making sense of this type of fiction. Post-apocalyptic stories function as a mental testing-ground where readers can cognitively and emotionally model the experience of living through the worst, and the genre prompts readers to reflect on the meaning of an existence that is always subject to radical change.
Conference Paper
The current research examines how American air travelers perceive various risk-based airport security screening policies that vary in terms of selection procedure and agency. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of six experimental conditions that differ in terms of procedures for selecting passengers for enhanced screening. Respondents were presented with a conventional security option and a risk-based option, and were asked to rate these policies in terms equity, safety, and convenience. They also indicated anticipated feelings if selected for an enhanced screening in the risk-based procedure. Results suggest that the conventional approach was perceived as safer and more equitable but less convenient. Importantly, while different passenger selection procedures for enhanced screening led to distinct perceptions and feelings, respondents were indifferent between an equivalent selection procedures conducted by humans versus by computer.
Article
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La présente étude évalue le lien entre la perception du risque d'insécurité et l'engagement. Elle prend en compte comme élément contextuel, la situation sécuritaire de la région de l'Extrême Nord du Cameroun. Au plan théorique, le modèle intégratif de l'engagement scolaire (Brault-Labbé & Dubé, 2009) a permis de relever le modèle d'analyse et postuler deux hypothèses de recherche. Elles ont été testées grâce à une étude empirique menée dans les villes de Dschang, Bafoussam et Yaoundé (Cameroun) auprès de 130 étudiants des deux sexes ayant postulés pour l'entrée à l'ENS de Maroua. Les données collectées confortent les prédictions émises puisque les postulants perçoivent certes la situation de Maroua comme étant insécuritaire, mais cela n'affecte aucunement leur engagement à y aller étudier. Toutefois, ce risque perçu d'insécurité fait davantage activer la facette motivationnelle de l'engagement que les composantes cognitives et comportementales, justifiant ainsi son apport théorique. De même, les résultats suggèrent que la théorie l'utilité espérée et le paradigme psychométriques, permettent démontrer l'apport de la perception du risque d'étudier à Maroua comme étant sous évalué. Mots clés : engagement psychologique, insécurité, ENS de Maroua, paradigme psychométrique, utilité espéré Relationship between insecurity perception of risk and students commitment applying to the competition Maroua Higher Teacher Training school in insecurity context This study assesses the link between insecurity risk perception and engagement. It takes into account as a contextual element, the security situation of the Extreme North region of Cameroon. On the theoretical level, the integrative model of school engagement (Brault-Labbé & Dubé, 2009) has enabled us to identify the analysis model and postulate two research hypotheses. They were tested through an empirical study conducted in the cities of Dschang, Bafoussam and Yaoundé (Cameroon) to 130 students of both sexes who applied for entry to HTTs Maroua. The data collected confirm the predictions made since the applicants perceive Maroua's situation as unsafe, but this does not affect their commitment to study. However, this perceived risk of insecurity makes the motivational aspect of engagement more dynamic than the cognitive and behavioral components, thus justifying its theoretical contribution. Similarly, the results suggest that the expected utility theory and the psychometric paradigm allow demonstrating the contribution risk perception on studying in Maroua as being underestimated.
Technical Report
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Het is onduidelijk of en in hoeverre de aanslagen in nabijgelegen landen ook van invloed zijn op de risicobeleving van de Nederlandse bevolking Niet alleen aanslagen in buurlanden kunnen van invloed zijn op de risicoperceptie in Nederland,1 maar ook het, door de overheid ingeschaalde, dreigingsniveau. De vraag rijst of en in hoeverre het relatief langdurig hoge dreigingsniveau (substantieel, niveau vier van vijf, sinds maart 2013) de risicoperceptie van de Nederlandse bevolking beïnvloedt.
Article
In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, individuals have become increasingly conscious of travel safety and security issues. Hence, in addition to travel times and costs, perceptions about security levels can be an important factor influencing intercity travel decisions. In the past few years, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has implemented several procedures, including rigorous screening, to improve airline security. However, these procedures have increased airline travel times. An empirical analysis is presented of individuals’ mode choice for intercity business trips incorporating trade-offs between improved security levels and increased travel times. Stated-preference data collected in New York City were used to develop a panel rank-ordered mixed logit model. It was found that individuals who held positive impressions about the security measures were more likely to fly but the utility of air mode decreased with increasing inspection and boarding time. The implication of these empirical results is that the TSA should seek both to improve public perceptions of the security arrangements and to ensure fast and efficient screening so as to sustain or increase the demand for air travel. Caution should be administered in generalizing these findings, however, as they are based on a small sample and on data gathered from an area directly affected by the events of September 11. In summary, the importance of research toward understanding the role of security perceptions on intercity travel decisions is reiterated, and a first step in this direction is presented.
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Cass Sunstein coined the term ‘probability neglect’ to characterize the cognitive bias of disregarding probability when assessing low-probability but high-impact threats. He also related this cognitive bias to terrorism risk, andapplied the concept to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, I show that such claims are not justified. I argue that an alternative hypothesis could be that people who downplay the epidemiological threat and do not take precautionary measures suffer from exponential-growth bias. I also show that probability theory, and thus the concept of probability neglect, cannot be easily applied to real-world problems, such as terrorist attacks or pandemics, occurring in a non-ergodic, uncertain environment.
Number of fatal traffic accidents in the United States in 1996 through 2000 versus 2001. The gray line represents the means for the years 1996 through 2000, the vertical black bars indicate the highest and lowest values for those years, and the black squares indicate the values for
  • Fig
Fig. 1. Number of fatal traffic accidents in the United States in 1996 through 2000 versus 2001. The gray line represents the means for the years 1996 through 2000, the vertical black bars indicate the highest and lowest values for those years, and the black squares indicate the values for 2001.
Do we fear the right things
  • D G Myers
Myers, D.G. (2001, December). Do we fear the right things? American Psy-
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Studies of risk perception examine the judgements people make when they are asked to characterize and evaluate hazardous activities and technologies. This research aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by providing a basis for understanding and anticipating public responses to hazards and improving the communication of risk information among lay people, technical experts, and decision-makers. This work assumes that those who promote and regulate health and safety need to understand how people think about and respond to risk. Without such understanding, well-intended policies may be ineffective.