ArticlePDF Available

The Characteristics of Persistent Sexual Offenders: A Meta-Analysis of Recidivism Studies

Authors:

Abstract and Figures

A meta-analysis of 82 recidivism studies (1,620 findings from 29,450 sexual offenders) identified deviant sexual preferences and antisocial orientation as the major predictors of sexual recidivism for both adult and adolescent sexual offenders. Antisocial orientation was the major predictor of violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism. The review also identified some dynamic risk factors that have the potential of being useful treatment targets (e.g., sexual preoccupations, general self-regulation problems). Many of the variables commonly addressed in sex offender treatment programs (e.g., psychological distress, denial of sex crime, victim empathy, stated motivation for treatment) had little or no relationship with sexual or violent recidivism.
Content may be subject to copyright.
The Characteristics of Persistent Sexual Offenders: A Meta-Analysis of
Recidivism Studies
R. Karl Hanson and Kelly E. Morton-Bourgon
Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada
A meta-analysis of 82 recidivism studies (1,620 findings from 29,450 sexual offenders) identified deviant
sexual preferences and antisocial orientation as the major predictors of sexual recidivism for both adult
and adolescent sexual offenders. Antisocial orientation was the major predictor of violent recidivism and
general (any) recidivism. The review also identified some dynamic risk factors that have the potential of
being useful treatment targets (e.g., sexual preoccupations, general self-regulation problems). Many of
the variables commonly addressed in sex offender treatment programs (e.g., psychological distress,
denial of sex crime, victim empathy, stated motivation for treatment) had little or no relationship with
sexual or violent recidivism.
Keywords: sexual offenders, recidivism, forensic, meta-analysis
Sexual offenses are among the crimes that invoke the most
public concern. Community surveys have found that 5% to 20% of
men admit to at least one instance of sexual aggression (Grotpellier
& Elliott, 2002; Koss, 1987; Lisak & Miller, 2002), and official
records indicate that 1% to 2% of the adult male population will
eventually be convicted of a sexual crime (California Office of the
Attorney General, 2004; P. Marshall, 1997). The observed sexual
recidivism rate is typically 10% to 15% after 5 years (Hanson &
Bussie`re, 1998), but for some offenders, the rate is much higher
(Harris et al., 2003). Identifying the characteristics of persistent
sexual offenders is important for understanding this highly trou-
bling behavioral disorder, as well as for the practical task of
administrating policies directed toward high risk sexual offenders
(e.g., treatment, civil commitment, community notification).
There is now a general consensus that sexual recidivism is
associated with at least two broad factors: (a) deviant sexual
interests and (b) antisocial orientation/lifestyle instability (Hanson
& Bussie`re, 1998; Quinsey, Lalumie`re, Rice, & Harris, 1995;
Roberts, Doren, & Thornton, 2002). Deviant sexual interests refer
to enduring attractions to sexual acts that are illegal (e.g., sex with
children, rape) or highly unusual (e.g., fetishism, autoerotic as-
phyxia). Although all sexual offending is socially deviant, men
who commit such acts do not necessarily have enduring prefer-
ences for such behavior (Hudson & Ward, 1997; W. L. Marshall,
1997).
Antisocial orientation refers to antisocial personality, antisocial
traits (such as impulsivity, substance abuse, unemployment), and a
history of rule violation. There is a strong association between rule
violation and impulsive, reckless behavior, such as excessive
drinking, frequent moves, fights, and unsafe work practices (Caspi
et al., 1994; Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990). Antisocial orientation
facilitates sexual offending because individuals will not commit
sexual crimes unless they are (a) willing to hurt others, (b) can
convince themselves that they are not harming their victims, or (c)
feel unable to stop themselves. Rapists are more likely than child
molesters to have an antisocial orientation (Firestone, Bradford,
Greenberg, & Serran, 2000; see review by West, 1983), but indi-
cators of hostility and lifestyle instability are associated with
sexual recidivism in both groups (Prentky, Knight, Lee, & Cerce,
1995; Rice, Quinsey, & Harris, 1991).
Contemporary theories posit that a variety of factors are asso-
ciated with the development of sexual offending (Knight & Sims-
Knight, 2003; Malamuth, 2003; Ward & Siegert, 2002). These
models suggest that adverse family environments provide the
breeding grounds for sexual offending. Lacking nurturance and
guidance, the potential sexual offender develops problems in social
functioning (e.g., mistrust, hostility, and insecure attachment) that,
in turn, are associated with social rejection, loneliness, negative
peer associations and delinquent behavior. The form of sexuality
that develops in the context of pervasive intimacy deficits is likely
to be impersonal and selfish and may even be adversarial. Further
contributing to the risk of sexual offending are beliefs that permit
nonconsenting sex. Attitudes allowing nonconsenting sex can de-
velop through the individuals’ trying to understand their own
R. Karl Hanson and Kelly Morton-Bourgon, Public Safety and Emer-
gency Preparedness Canada.
Kelly Morton-Bourgon is now with the Department of Justice, Canada,
Ottawa.
The views expressed are those of the authors and are not necessarily
those of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada. We thank the
following researchers who provided raw data or findings not included in
other reports: S. Brown, H. Gretton, G. Harris, N. Långstro¨m, C. Langton,
R. Lieb, J. Marques, M. Miner, L. Motiuk, T. Nicholaichuk, J. Proulx, J.
Reddon, M. Rice, G. Schiller, L. Studer, L. Song, and D. Thornton. We
greatly appreciate the help of R. Broadhurst, R. Dempster, R. Kropp, L.
Hartwell, A. Hills, N. Morvan and L. Rasmussen in locating unpublished
documents. We also thank Dale Arnold, Jim Bonta, Guy Bourgon, Don
Grubin, Amy Phenix, Vern Quinsey, Marnie Rice and David Thornton,
who provided comments on an earlier version of this study.
Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to R. Karl
Hanson, Corrections Research, Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness
Canada, 340 Laurier Avenue West, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0P8, Canada.
E-mail: Karl.Hanson@psepc-sppcc.gc.ca
Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology Copyright 2005 Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada
2005, Vol. 73, No. 6, 1154 –1163 DOI: 10.1037/0022-006X.73.6.1154
1154
experiences and adopting the attitudes of their significant others
(friends, family, abusers).
Such a model suggests that, apart from sexual deviancy and
lifestyle instability, there may be three additional characteristics of
persistent sexual offenders: (a) negative family background, (b)
problems forming affectionate bonds with friends and lovers, and
(c) attitudes tolerant of sexual assault. Examination of the most
commonly used rating scales for sexual offenders indicate that
these factors have considerable credibility among those conducting
sexual offender evaluations (Beech, Fisher, & Thornton, 2003).
The research evidence addressing some of these factors is sur-
prisingly weak. Hanson and Bussie`re’s (1998) meta-analytic re-
view found that the average correlation between sexual recidivism
and sexual abuse as a child was r ⫽⫺.01 (based on 5 studies), and
the correlation between recividism and deviant sexual attitudes
was r .09 (4 studies). The relationship between sexual recidi-
vism and intimacy deficits (apart from marital status) has not been
the target of a systemic review.
Recidivism studies are important because sexual offenders are
likely to have many problems, not all of which are related to sexual
offending. For example, sexual offenders are at increased risk for
anxiety and depression (Raymond, Coleman, Ohlerking, Chris-
tensen, & Miner, 1999), but such problems have not been associ-
ated with sexual recidivism (Hanson & Bussie`re, 1998). Similarly,
Hanson and Bussie`re’s quantitative review found that sexual re-
cidivism was unrelated to the seriousness of the index offense
(e.g., victim injury, intercourse) and clinical presentation variables
(e.g., denial, victim empathy, motivation for treatment).
Hanson and Bussie`re’s (1998) meta-analysis made an important
contribution by summarizing the available evidence concerning
recidivism risk factors for sexual offenders. Most of their findings,
however, concerned static, historical factors. Static factors are
useful for long-term recidivism prediction, but those interested in
understanding (and changing) recidivism risk are interested in
dynamic (changeable) risk factors, also called “criminogenic
needs” (Andrews & Bonta, 2003), “stable dynamic risk factors”
(Hanson & Harris, 2000b) or “causal psychological risk factors”
(Beech & Ward, 2004).
The purpose of the present study was to update Hanson and
Bussie`re’s (1998) meta-analysis in light of the ongoing research on
sexual-offender risk assessment. Rather than repeat all the vari-
ables from Hanson and Bussie`re, in the present study, we consid-
ered only findings that (a) were considered important to the un-
derstanding and management of sexual offenders and (b) were
weak or controversial in the earlier review (e.g., denial, victim
damage). The review focused on sexual recidivism but also con-
sidered nonsexual violent and general (any) recidivism. Sexual
offenders are more likely to reoffend with a nonsexual offense than
with a sexual offense (Hanson & Bussie`re), and an important
question is whether the predictors of sexual recidivism are sub-
stantially different from the predictors of nonsexual recidivism.
Method
Sample
Computer searches of PsycLIT, the National Criminal Justice Reference
Service of the United States, and the library of Public Safety and Emer-
gency Preparedness Canada were conducted by using the following key
terms: child molester, exhibitionism, exhibitionist, failure, frotteur, incest,
indecent exposure, paraphilias(c), pedophile, pedophilia, predict(ion),
rape, rapist, recidivate, recidivism, recidivist, relapse, reoffend, reoffense,
sex(ual) offender, sexual assault, sexual deviant. Additional sources in-
cluded the reference lists of empirical studies and previous reviews, recent
issues of relevant journals (e.g., Criminal Justice and Behavior, Sexual
Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment), and letters sent to 34
established researchers in the field of sexual offender recidivism.
Included were studies that examined offenders who were released after
an index sexual offense and for whom the recidivism rate (sexual, violent,
or any) was reported after a follow-up period. Researchers assessing
offender characteristics were blind to recidivism status. Studies needed to
include sufficient statistical information, and at least 5 subjects for all
marginal totals were required for dichotomous variables.
As of January, 2003, our search yielded 115 usable documents (e.g.,
published articles, books, government reports, conference presentations).
In 15 cases, the analyses were based on raw data or analyses provided by
the original researchers. When the same data set was reported in several
articles, all the results from these articles were considered to come from the
same study. Consequently, the 115 documents represented 82 different
studies (country of origin: 35 United States; 26 Canada; 12 United King-
dom; 2 Austria; 2 Sweden; 2 Australia; and 1 each from France, the
Netherlands, and Denmark). Of these studies, 41 (50%) were unpublished.
The studies were produced between 1943 and 2003 (median 1996); the
average sample size was 359 (median 174, range 12–1,407). Thirty-
five studies were the same as those included in Hanson and Bussie`re’s
(1998) review, 10 studies contained updated information (e.g., longer
follow-up periods, new analyses), and 37 studies were new.
Most of the studies examined mixed groups of adult sexual offenders (72
mixed-offense types, 7 child molesters, 2 rapists, 1 exhibitionist; 67 pre-
dominantly adults, 15 adolescents; all male). All the offenders had com-
mitted offenses that meet contemporary definitions of sexual crimes (i.e.,
old studies containing homosexuals were excluded). Most of the offenders
were released from institutions (41 institution only, 17 community only, 22
institution and community, and 2 unknown). The offenders in 31 studies
came from treatment programs. When demographic information was pre-
sented, the offenders were predominantly Caucasian (in 40 of 43 studies).
Effect sizes were recorded for four outcome criteria: (a) any sexual
recidivism (vs. no recidivism or only nonsexual recidivism— 605 effect
sizes); (b) violent nonsexual recidivism (vs. no recidivism, sexual recidi-
vism, or nonviolent recidivism—248 effect sizes); (c) any violent recidi-
vism—sexual or nonsexual—(vs. no recidivism or only nonviolent recid-
ivism—339 effect sizes); and (d) any recidivism (vs. no recidivism— 428
effect sizes).
The most common sources of recidivism information were national
criminal justice records (48), provincial or state records (32), records from
treatment programs (18) and self-reports (13). Other sources (e.g., child-
protection records, parole files) were used in 20 studies. In 34 studies,
multiple sources were used. The source of the recidivism information for
10 studies was unknown. The recidivism criterion was arrest in 25 studies,
reconviction in 24 studies, and reincarceration in 3 studies. Twenty-six
studies used multiple criteria (e.g., arrest, parole violations, noncriminal
justice-system reports). Recidivism was assessed solely from self-reports in
2 studies, and, in 2 studies, the recidivism criterion was unknown. The
follow-up period ranged from 12 months to 330 months, with a mean of
76.0 months (SD 56.8).
Coding Procedure
Each study was coded separately by the two authors, who used a
standard list of variables and explicit coding rules (available on request).
Variables were first coded into specific individual variables (e.g., sexual
interest in boys), which were then subsumed into general categories (e.g.,
sexual deviancy). The general categories were as follows:
1155
CHARACTERISTICS OF PERSISTENT SEXUAL OFFENDERS
1. Sexual deviancy: deviant sexual interests, such as children, rape,
and other paraphilias, as well as sexual preoccupations and
gender dysphoria);
2. Antisocial orientation: antisocial personality (e.g., antisocial per-
sonality disorder, psychopathy, Minnesota Multiphasic Person-
ality Inventory Scale 4), antisocial traits (e.g., lifestyle instabil-
ity, substance abuse, hostility), and a history of rule violation
(e.g., childhood criminality, history of nonsexual crime, violation
of conditional release);
3. Sexual attitudes: tolerance of sexual crime, support for adult–
child sex, and low sex knowledge;
4. Intimacy deficits: poor social skills, negative social influences,
conflicts in intimate relationships, emotional identification with
children, and loneliness;
5. Adverse childhood environment: conflicts with and separation
from parents, neglect, and physical and sexual abuse;
6. General psychological problems: internalization of psychologi-
cal problems (e.g., anxiety and low self-esteem, as well as major
mental illness); and
7. Clinical presentation: denial, minimization, lack of victim em-
pathy, low motivation for treatment, and poor progress.
Only one finding per individual variable was coded per sample on the
basis of (a) sample size and (b) completeness of information. If the sample
sizes and descriptive detail were equivalent, the median value was used.
Because many of the variables were intended to be dynamic (changeable),
posttreatment findings were privileged over pretreatment findings except
when the posttreatment finding was based on an insufficient number of
cases.
Interrater reliability was calculated for approximately 10% of the sample
(n 10), by using kappa for dichotomous and categorical variables and
two-way random effects model intraclass correlation coefficients, or ICC
(type absolute agreement) for ordinal and interval variables (Design 2 in
Orwin, 1994). The agreement for the sample characteristics (e.g., adults or
adolescents, treated or not) was perfect for 14 variables, excellent (
.80;
ICC .85) for 6 variables, and fair (
.50) for 3 variables: Did the
recidivism criteria include parole violations, arrests, or nonjustice system
reports? Kappa was low (–.11) for 1 variable (did the recidivism criteria
include reconvictions?); for 8 of the 10 studies, the raters agreed that the
researchers counted convictions, but each rater identified a different study
where he or she thought conviction records had not been consulted.
The interrater reliability of the effect sizes was .83 for a single rater and
.90 for the average of two raters. In the 10 reliability studies, Rater 1
identified 134 findings, and Rater 2 identified 131 findings, with agreement
on 245 of the 265 findings (92.5%). The actual agreement would be greater
because judges conferred on their final rating. Most differences involved
simple omissions or clerical errors.
Index of Predictive Accuracy
The effect size indicator was the standardized mean difference, d,
defined as follows: d (M
1
–M
2
)/S
w
, where M
1
is the mean of the deviant
group, M
2
is the mean of the nondeviant group, and S
w
is the pooled-within
standard deviation (Hasselblad & Hedges, 1995). In other words, d mea-
sures the average difference between the recidivists and the nonrecidivists,
and compares this difference to how much recidivists differ from each
other, and how much nonrecidivists differ from each other. The formula for
calculating d can be found in Hanson and Morton-Bourgon (2004).
The d statistic was selected because it is less influenced by recidivism
base rates than correlation coefficients—the other statistic commonly used
in meta-analyses. According to Cohen (1988), d values of .20 are consid-
ered “small;” those of .50, “medium;” and .those of .80, “large.” The value
of d is approximately twice as large as the correlation coefficient calculated
from the same data. When the 95% confidence interval for d does not
contain zero, it can be considered statistically significant at p .05. When
the confidence intervals for two predictors do not overlap, they can be
considered significantly different from each other ( p .05).
Aggregation of Findings
Two methods were used to summarize the findings: median values
(Slavin, 1995) and weighted mean values (Hedges & Olkin, 1985). The
averaged d value, d., was calculated by weighing each d
i
by the inverse of
its variance:
d.
i1
k
w
i
d
i
/
i1
k
w
i
,
where k is the number of findings, w
i
1/v
i
, and v
i
is the variance of the
individual d
i
(fixed effect model). The variance of the weighted mean was
used to calculate 95% confidence intervals:
Vard. 1/
i1
k
w
i
; 95% C.I. d. Vard.兴兲
1/ 2
.
Weighting d values by the inverse of their variance means that findings
from small samples are given less weight than findings from large samples.
When d
i
was calculated from 2 2 tables, the variance of d
i
was
estimated by using Formula 6 from Hasselblad and Hedges (1995):
Vard
i
3
2
1
a .5
1
b .5
1
c .5
1
d .5
.
When d
i
was calculated from other statistics (t, ROC areas, means, etc.),
the variance of d
i
was estimated by using Formula 3 from Hasselblad and
Hedges (1995):
Vard
i
N
1
N
2
N
1
N
2
d
i
2
2N
1
N
2
.
To test the generalizability of effects across studies, Hedges and Olkin’s
(1985) Q statistic was used:
Q
i1
k
w
i
d
i
d.
2
.
The Q statistic is distributed as a
2
with k 1 degrees of freedom (k is the
number of studies). A significant Q statistic indicates that there is more
variability across studies than would be expected by chance. Outliers were
excluded from each category if the single extreme value accounted for
more than 50% of the total variance (Q).
Results
On average, the observed sexual recidivism rate was 13.7%
(n 19,267; 73 studies), the violent nonsexual recidivism rate was
14.3% (n 6,928; 24 studies), the violent recidivism rate (includ-
ing sexual and nonsexual violence) was 14.3% (n 11,361; 29
studies) and the general (any) recidivism rate was 36.2% (n
12,708; 56 studies). Studies that specified in advance the number
of recidivists and nonrecidivists were excluded from the rate
calculations (e.g., Dempster, 1998). The average follow-up time
1156
HANSON AND MORTON-BOURGON
was 5– 6 years. These figures should be considered underestimates
because not all offenses are detected.
The 82 studies produced 1,620 effect sizes (total of 29,450
sexual offenders). The average effect size for the published studies
(M .23, SD .40, n 555) was the same as in the unpublished
studies (M .22, SD .35, n 1,065), t(1618) .50, p .62.
The correlation between sample size and effect size was positive
(r .12, n 1,620, p .001). (A negative correlation is expected
when there is selective reporting of significant findings.) The
correlation remained significantly positive after removing 103 d
values estimated as zero because they were reported as
nonsignificant.
Effect sizes were not related to publication date (r .001) or to
the thoroughness with which researchers tracked recidivism infor-
mation (r .026). The thoroughness of the recidivism search was
rated on a 7-point scale (1 self-report only,4 one method
searches, and 7 multiple sources including national criminal
records). The effect sizes were the same whether recidivism was
measured by arrests (M .23, SD .34, n 1,001) or convic-
tions (M .21, SD .39, n 542; t(1541) 1.14, p .25). The
effect sizes for adult offenders (M .23, SD .36, n 1,319)
were similar to effect sizes for adolescents (M .21, SD .37,
n 301; t(1618) 1.11, p .27). The coding did not permit
comparisons between rapists and child molesters.
Comparisons Across Categories of Risk Predictors
Table 1 presents the association with recidivism for the seven
broad categories of risk factors. These broad comparisons were
based on one individual finding per study (see coding manual and
Hanson and Morton-Bourgon (2004) for further information about
the individual predictors). The strongest predictors of sexual re-
cidivism were those related to sexual deviancy (d. .30) and
antisocial orientation (d. .23). The general category of sexual
attitudes was also significantly related to sexual recidivism, but the
effect was small (d. .17, 95% confidence interval of .04 to .28)
and contained significant variability. The effects were not signif-
icant for child molester attitudes, low sex knowledge, or other
deviant sexual attitudes (e.g., prudish attitudes toward
masturbation).
The general category of intimacy deficits showed a small, sig-
nificant relationship to sexual recidivism (d. .15), with substan-
tial variation among its subcomponents. Of the subcomponents of
intimacy deficits, relatively larger effects were found for conflicts
in intimate relationships (d. .36, 4 studies) and emotional
identification with children (d. .42, 3 studies) than for social
skills deficits (d. ⫽⫺.07, 6 studies) or loneliness (d. .03, 6
studies). The general categories of adverse childhood environment
(d. .09), general psychological problems (d. .02), and clinical
presentation (d. ⫽⫺.02) had little or no relationship with sexual
recidivism.
Antisocial orientation (antisocial personality, antisocial traits,
history of rule violation) was the major predictor of violent non-
sexual recidivism (d. .51), violent (including sexual) recidivism
(d. .54) and any recidivism (d. .52). Almost all of the
individual indicators of antisocial orientation were significantly
related to nonsexual violent, violent, and general recidivism; most
of the relationships were moderate to large. Among the strongest
individual predictors of any recidivism were general problems
with self-regulation (d. .75, 6 studies, which included measures
of impulsivity, lifestyle instability, and Factor 2 of the Psychopa-
thy Checklist Revised, or PCL-R (Hare et al., 1990), a history of
nonviolent crime (d. .68, 9 studies), psychopathy (PCL-R total
scores; d. .67, 9 studies), and a history of nonsexual crime (d.
.63, 8 studies).
Few variables other than antisocial orientation were predictive
of nonsexual violent or general (any) recidivism. Sexual attitudes
showed a small relationship with general recidivism (d. .24).
Sexual deviancy was unrelated to violent nonsexual recidivism (d.
⫽⫺.05) and general (any) recidivism (d. .04).
The same major predictors were found for adolescent sex of-
fenders as for adult sexual offenders. For adolescent sex offenders,
sexual recidivism was predicted by sexual deviance (d. .36
.24, 95% confidence interval of .12 to .60, 7 studies; n 734) and
antisocial orientation (d. .19 .17, 14 studies; n 1,958).
Antisocial orientation also predicted violent nonsexual recidivism
(d. .33 .19, 5 studies; n 825), any violent recidivism (d.
.46 .26, 3 studies; n 559), and any recidivism (d. .41 .13,
10 studies; n 1,400) among adolescent sex offenders.
Possible Dynamic Risk Factors for Sexual Recidivism
Table 2 presents some of the most promising targets for inter-
vention. All of these findings were based on at least 5 studies with
a combined sample of at least 1,000, with no significant variability
between studies. The most confidence can be placed in those
findings with narrow confidence intervals (large sample size).
Readers should be cautioned, however, that the findings based on
Table 1
Factors Associated With Recidivism Among Sexual Offenders
Category
Type of recidivism
Sexual Violent nonsexual Violent Any
Sexual deviancy .30 .08 (5,053; 32) .05 .17 (1,385; 10) .19 .08 (3,155; 17) .04 .08 (6,555; 19)
Antisocial orientation .23 .04 (23,012; 65) .51 .07 (8,283; 24) .54 .05 (13,065; 28) .52 .04 (15,988; 43)
Sexual attitudes .16 .12 (2,370; 14) .17 .22 (732; 6) .14 .11 (1,598; 9) .24 .10 (1,053; 9)
Intimacy deficits .15 .11 (2,852; 22) .12 .21 (822; 6) .12 .12 (1,197; 8) .10 .10 (1,715; 15)
Adverse childhood environment .09 .08 (7,259; 27) .02 .17 (2,256; 7) .14 .08 (5,041; 14) .11 .07 (5,044; 15)
General psychological problems .02 .10 (3,208; 19) .21 .14 (2,089; 8) .00 .10 (1,974; 10) .04 .11 (1,658; 11)
Clinical presentation .02 .09 (5,094; 24) .16 .20 (2,090; 5) .09 .09 (3,849; 12) .12 .08 (4,714; 18)
Note. Values are averaged d values, followed by their 95% confidence interval and (in parentheses) the total sample size and the number of studies (k).
1157
CHARACTERISTICS OF PERSISTENT SEXUAL OFFENDERS
the minimum inclusion criteria (5 studies, 1,000 subjects) could
still be substantially changed by new, large studies with divergent
results.
The promising dynamic risk factors included variables related to
sexual deviancy (any deviant sexual interest, sexual preoccupa-
tions), antisocial personality (antisocial personality disorder, psy-
chopathy as measured by PCL-R), and antisocial traits (general
self-regulation problems, employment instability, hostility). The
potentially misleading risk factors were negative family back-
ground, internalization of psychological problems, and poor clin-
ical presentation (e.g., denial, low motivation for treatment).
The different approaches used to assess deviant sexual interests
included self-report (d. .38 .18, 5 studies; n 780), phallo-
metric assessments (d. .24 .12, 13 studies; n 2,180),
offense history (d. .15 .18, 3 studies; n 1,042), and
structured clinical ratings relying on multiple sources of informa-
tion (d. .42 .19, 8 studies; n 947), such as the Sexual
Deviance item from Sexual Violence Risk–20 (Boer, Hart, Kropp,
& Webster, 1997). For the 6 studies that presented dichotomous
ratings of sexual deviancy, 65.5% of the sexual recidivists (n
261) were classified as sexual deviant compared with 42.3% of the
nonrecidivists (n 749). Sexual preoccupations were assessed
through either self-report questionnaires (d. .35 .18, 3 studies;
n 3,911) or structured clinical ratings (d. .68 .45, 3 studies;
n 208). The structured clinical ratings showed greater predictive
accuracy than the other assessment approaches, but the confidence
intervals overlapped for all measures.
Discussion
Most sexual offenders were not caught for another sexual of-
fense (13.7%); on average, they were more likely to recidivate
with a nonsexual offense than a sexual offense (overall recidivism
rate of 36.2%). The major predictors of general (any) and violent
recidivism were variables related to antisocial orientation, such as
antisocial personality, antisocial traits, and a history of rule viola-
tion. These are the same risk factors that predict general and
violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders (Bonta,
Law, & Hanson, 1998) and unselected groups of offenders (Gen-
dreau, Little, & Goggin, 1996).
The variables that predicted sexual recidivism were similar, but
not identical, to the predictors of nonsexual recidivism. Sexual
deviancy and antisocial orientation were the major predictors of
sexual recidivism for both adult and adolescent sexual offenders.
Sexual deviancy was unrelated to nonsexual recidivism. For the
general categories of deviant sexual attitudes and intimacy deficits,
some of the individual variables were related to sexual recidivism
(e.g., emotional identification with children, conflicts in intimate
relationships) and some were not (e.g., loneliness). Such variabil-
ity suggests that further research is needed to uncover those
aspects of attitudes and social functioning most associated with
persistent sexual offending.
The present results also suggest that the factors that initiate
sexual offending may not be the same as the factors associated
with persistence. Negative family backgrounds and internalization
of psychological problems are common among sexual offenders
(Lee, Jackson, Pattison, & Ward, 2002; Raymond et al., 1999;
Smallbone & Dadds, 1998), but these factors were unrelated to
sexual recidivism. The prototypic sexual recidivist is not upset or
lonely; instead, he leads an unstable, antisocial lifestyle and rumi-
nates on sexually deviant themes. There is some evidence, how-
ever, that sexual offenders are more likely than other groups to
respond to stress through sexual acts and fantasies (deviant or
otherwise; Cortoni & Marshall, 2001; McKibben, Proulx, & Lusig-
nan, 1994) thereby creating discrete time periods where they are at
increased risk of sexual recidivism (Hanson & Harris, 2000b).
The distinction between sexual recidivists and nonrecidivists
invites comparisons with Moffitt’s (1993) distinction between
adolescence-limited and life-course persistent delinquents. In Mof-
fitt’s typology, the life-course persistent offenders have behavior
problems in childhood, engage in interpersonal violence, and have
Table 2
Selected Predictors of Sexual Recidivism
Variable Mean d Median dQ Total (k)
Possible dynamic risk factors
Any deviant sexual interest .31 .10 .36 21.91 2,769 (16)
Sexual preoccupations .39 .16 .51 8.31 1,119 (6)
Antisocial personality disorder .21 .10 .29 13.01 3,267 (12)
Psychopathy Checklist—Revised .29 .09 .25 14.36 2,783 (13)
General self-regulation problems .37 .11 .34 22.85 2,411 (15)
Employment instability .22 .09 .15 20.88 5,357 (15)
Hostility .17 .13 .16 12.69 1,960 (9)
Potentially misleading risk factors
Force/violence in sex offending .09 .07 .00 29.28 7,221 (25)
Neglect or abuse during childhood .10 .09 .00 27.43 5,490 (18)
Sexual abuse during childhood .09 .10 .02 24.44 5,711 (17)
Loneliness .03 .13 .02 5.79 1,810 (6)
Low self-esteem .04 .16 .03 10.12 1,424 (10)
Lack of victim empathy .08 .13 .01 0.92 1,745 (5)
Denial of sexual crime .02 .17 .02 11.72 1,780 (9)
Low motivation for treatment at intake .08 .13 .04 13.83 1,786 (12)
Poor progress in treatment (post) .14 .17 .11 9.35 1,118 (7)
Note. Each mean is followed by its 95% confidence interval. Total is number of subjects; k is the number of
studies. All Q values were not significant, p .05.
1158
HANSON AND MORTON-BOURGON
many sexual partners (Sluyter et al., 2003)—all characteristics that
predicted sexual and nonsexual recidivism in the present study.
These characteristics can be considered common manifestations of
low self-control (e.g., Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990), but they have
also been considered as an evolutionary adaptation to stressful
childhood environments (Belsky, Steinberg, & Draper, 1991; Mof-
fit, Caspi, Belsky, & Silva, 1992). The substantial overlap in the
characteristics of persistent sexual and persistent nonsexual of-
fenders suggests that those concerned with the assessment and
management of sexual offenders could profit from the substantial
literature on the assessment and treatment of general criminal
offenders (e.g., Andrews & Bonta, 2003; Gendreau, French, &
Gionet, 2004).
For those involved in applied risk assessments with sexual
offenders, the review confirms sexual deviancy and antisocial
orientation as major predictors of sexual recidivism and extends
the range of relevant variables to include some potentially change-
able characteristics: sexual preoccupations, lifestyle instability/
impulsivity, pro-offending attitudes, and intimacy deficits. Read-
ers will notice, however, that the predictive accuracy of most of the
characteristics was small. Consequently, prudent evaluators need
to consider a range of potential risk factors in an overall evalua-
tion. The best methods for combining risk factors into an overall
evaluation remain an active topic of scientific debate (Berlin,
Galbreath, Geary, & McGlone, 2003; Hanson, Morton, & Harris,
2003).
Another outstanding research question is whether changes on
the potentially dynamic factors are actually associated with reduc-
tions in recidivism risk. In general, evaluations of treatment
progress showed little relationship to recidivism, with an average
d. of .14. Nevertheless, there were some recent examples in which
ratings of progress in treatment were significantly related to recid-
ivism (Beech, Erikson, Friendship, & Ditchfield, 2001, d .50;
Marques, Day, Wiederanders, & Nelson, 2002, d .55). Both of
these studies used highly structured approaches to evaluating treat-
ment gains and were informed by recent empirical research.
Evaluators may also note that many of the variables used in
clinical assessments had little or no relationship with recidivism
(e.g., denial, low victim empathy, low motivation for treatment).
The lack of relationship may be linked to the difficulty of assessing
sincere remorse in criminal justice settings. It is also possible that
evaluators looking for risk factors have little to gain from listening
to offenders’ attempts to justify their transgressions. Psychother-
apists often consider full disclosure desirable, and courts are le-
nient toward those who show remorse; few people, however, are
inclined to completely reveal their faults and transgressions. Re-
search has even suggested that full disclosure of negative personal
characteristics is associated with negative social outcomes, includ-
ing poor progress in psychotherapy (Kelly, 2000). Consequently,
resistance to being labeled a sexual offender may not be associated
with increased recidivism risk, even though it does create barriers
to engagement in treatment. Offenders who minimize their crimes
are at least indicating that sexual offending is wrong.
The present findings may also be useful to those wishing to
improve treatment programs for sexual offenders. On average,
sexual offenders who attend treatment are less likely to recidivate
than are comparison groups (Hall, 1995; Hanson et al., 2002), but
it is easy to locate well-controlled studies that find no effect for
sexual offender treatment (e.g., Marques, Wiederanders, Day, Nel-
son, & van Ommeren, 2005). For general offenders, treatment is
effective only when it targets criminogenic needs (i.e., character-
istics associated with offending; Dowden & Andrews, 2000). A
review of the core treatment targets of sexual offender treatment
programs (McGrath, Cumming, & Burchard, 2003, Table 9.1)
suggests that most programs direct considerable resources toward
characteristics that have little or no relationship with recidivism
(e.g., offense responsibility, victim awareness, and empathy). An
important question is whether programs that target the major
predictors of sexual offense recidivism (e.g., lifestyle instability,
deviant sexual interests, sexual preoccupations) are more effective
than programs that target other factors.
Meta-analyses provide broad overviews and can easily neglect
potentially important differences between studies. The definitions
of constructs varied across studies, as did the samples. The present
study focused on mixed groups of sexual offenders, and there was
no effort to identify distinct predictors for specific subgroups (e.g.,
rapists, exhibitionists). Nevertheless, the findings were remarkably
consistent. For 70% of the individual findings, the amount of
variability across studies was no more than would be expected by
chance ( p .05). Furthermore, there was substantial consistency
within many of the categories of predictors, with almost all of the
variables being significant (e.g., sexual deviancy, history of rule
violation) or nonsignificant (e.g., general psychological problems,
clinical presentation; see Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004).
There is still substantial variability across studies that remains to
be explained, but it appears that research is getting closer to
identifying the constructs that are, and are not, related to recidi-
vism among sexual offenders. Hopefully these research gains can
be used to promote effective interventions and just social policies
for sexual offenders.
References
References marked with an asterisk were included in the meta-analysis
*Abel, G. G., Mittelman, M., Becker, J. V., Rathner, J., & Rouleau, J. L.
(1988). Predicting child molesters’ response to treatment. In R. A.
Prentky & V. L. Quinsey (Eds.), Human sexual aggression: Current
prespectives (pp. 223–234). New York: New York Academy of Science.
*Allam, J. (1999). Effective practice in work with sex offenders: A re-
conviction study comparing treated and untreated offenders. Birming-
ham, West Midlands, England: West Midlands Probation Service Sex
Offender Unit.
Andrews, D. A., & Bonta, J. (2003). The psychology of criminal conduct
(3rd ed.). Cincinnati, OH: Anderson.
*Barbaree, H. E., & Marshall, W. L. (1988). Deviant sexual arousal,
offense history, and demographic variables as predictors of reoffense
among child molesters. Behavioural Sciences & the Law, 6, 267–280.
*Barbaree, H. E., & Seto, M. C. (1998). The ongoing follow-up of sex
offenders treated at the Warkworth Sexual Behaviour Clinic (Research
Rep.). Toronto, Canada: Forensic Program, Centre for Addiction and
Mental Health.
*Barbaree, H. E., Seto, M. C., Langton, C. M., & F. E. Peacock, E. J.
(2001). Evaluating the predictive accuracy of six risk assessment instru-
ments for adult sex offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28,
490 –521.
*Barbaree, H. E., Seto, M. C., & Maric, A. (1996). Working papers in
impulsivity research: Sex offender characteristics, response to treat-
ment, and correctional release decisions at the Warkworth Sexual Be-
haviour Clinic (Research Rep.). Toronto, Canada: Forensic Division,
Clarke Institute of Psychiatry.
1159
CHARACTERISTICS OF PERSISTENT SEXUAL OFFENDERS
*Beech, A., Erikson, M., Friendship, C., & Ditchfield, J. (2001). A six-year
follow-up of men going through probation-based sex offender treatment
programmes (Findings #144). London: Home Office.
Beech, A. R., Fisher, D. D., & Thornton, D. (2003). Risk assessment of sex
offenders. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 34, 339
352.
Beech, A., & Ward, T. (2004). The integration of etiology and risk in
sexual offenders: A theoretical framework. Aggression and Violent
Behavior, 10, 31– 63.
Belsky, J., Steinberg, L., & Draper, P. (1991). Childhood experiences,
interpersonal development, and reproductive strategy: An evolutionary
theory of socialization. Child Development, 62, 647– 670.
*Berger, P. (2002, September). The role of personality disorders and
paraphilias as predictors of relapse in male sexual offenders. Paper
presented at the 7
th
conference of the International Association for the
Treatment of Sexual Offenders, Vienna.
Berlin, F. S., Galbreath, N. W., Geary, B., & McClone, G. (2003). The use
of actuarials at civil commitment hearings to predict the likelihood of
future sexual violence. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treat-
ment, 15, 377–382.
Boer, D. P., Hart, S. D., Kropp, P. R., & Webster, C. D. (1997). Manual for
the Sexual Violence Risk 20: Professional guidelines for assessing risk
of sexual violence. Vancouver: The British Columbia Institute Against
Family Violence.
*Bonta, J., & Hanson, R. K. (1995). [Ten year recidivism data for offenders
released from the Correctional Service of Canada in 1983/1984]. Un-
published raw data.
Bonta, J., Law, M., & Hanson, R. K. (1998). The prediction of criminal and
violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders: A meta-
analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 123, 123–142.
*Bradford, J., Firestone, P., Fernandez, M., Curry, S., & Larose, M. (1997).
Predictors of recidivism in a population of Canadian sex offenders:
Psychological, physiological, and offense factors. Unpublished manuscript.
*Broadhurst, R. (1999). Probabilities of sex offender recidivism: A survival
analysis. Unpublished manuscript.
*Broadhurst, R., & Loh, N. (2003). The probabilities of sex offender
rearrest. Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health, 13, 121–139.
*Broadhurst, R., & Maller, R. A. (1992). The recidivism of sex offenders
in the Western Australian prison population. British Journal of Crimi-
nology, 32, 54 80.
*Buffington-Vollum, J., Edens, J. F., Johnson, D. W., & Johnson, J. K.
(2002). Psychopathy as a predictor of institutional misbehaviour among
sex offenders: A prospective replication. Criminal Justice and Behavior,
29, 497–511.
California Office of the Attorney General. (2004). Sex offender registration
statistics as of June 1, 2004. Retrieved June 28, 2004, from http://
caag.state.ca.us/megan/pdf/5_04pie1.pdf
Caspi, A., Moffit, T. E., Silva, P. A., Stouthamer-Loeber, M., Krueger,
R. F., & Schmutte, P. S. (1994). Are some people crime-prone? Repli-
cations of the personality-crime relationship across countries, genders,
races, and methods. Criminology, 32, 163–195.
*Christiansen, K. O., Elers-Nielsen, M., Le Maire, L., & Sturup, G. K.
(1965). Recidivism among sexual offenders. Scandinavian Studies in
Criminology, 1, 55– 85.
Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences
(2nd ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
*Cooper, H. (2000). Long-term follow-up of a community-based treatment
program for adolescent sex offenders. Unpublished master’s thesis,
Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada.
Cortoni, F., & Marshall, W. L. (2001). Sex as a coping strategy and its
relationship to juvenile sexual history and intimacy in sexual offenders.
Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 13, 27– 43.
*Davis, G. L., Hoffman, R. G., & Stacken, N. (1991, August). 2– 4 Year
post-incarceration follow-up of treated sex offenders. Paper presented at
the 99
th
meeting of the American Psychological Association, San Fran
-
cisco.
*Dempster, R. J. (1998). Prediction of sexually violent recidivism: A
comparison of risk assessment instruments. Unpublished master’s thesis,
Simon Fraser University, British Columbia, Canada.
*Dempster, R. J., & Hart, S. D. (2002). The relative utility of fixed and
variable risk factors in discriminating sexual recidivists and nonrecidi-
vists. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14(2),
121–138.
*Dix, G. E. (1976). Differential processing of abnormal sex offenders:
Utilization of California’s mentally disordered sex offender program.
Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology, 67, 233–243.
*Doshay, L. J. (1943). The boy sex offender and his later career. Mont-
clair, NJ: Patterson Smith.
Dowden, C., & Andrews, D. A. (2000). Effective correctional treatment
and violent reoffending: A meta-analysis. Canadian Journal of Crimi-
nology, 42, 449 467.
*Dwyer, S. M. (1997). Treatment outcome study: Seventeen years after
sexual offender treatment. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and
Treatment, 9, 149 –160.
*Epperson, D. L., Kaul, J. D., & Hesselton, D. (1998). Minnesota Sex
Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST–R): Development, perfor-
mance, and recommended risk level cut scores. Iowa State University &
Minnesota Department of Corrections.
*Epperson, D. L., Kaul, J. D., & Huot, S. J. (1995, October). Predicting
risk of recidivism for incarcerated sex offenders: Updated development
on the Sex Offender Screening Tool (SOST). Paper presented at the 14th
annual Research and Treatment Conference of the Association for the
Treatment of Sexual Abusers, New Orleans, LA.
*Federoff, J. P., Wisner-Carlson, R., Dean, S., & Berlin, F. S. (1992).
Medroxy-progesterone acetate in the treatment of paraphilic sexual
disorders. Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, 18, 109 –123.
Firestone, P., Bradford, J. M., Greenberg, D. M., & Serran, G. A. (2000).
The relationship between deviant sexual arousal and psychopathy in
incest offenders, extrafamilial child molesters, and rapists. Journal of the
American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 28, 303–308.
*Firestone, P., Bradford, J. M., McCoy, M., Greenberg, D. M., Curry, S.,
& Larose, M. R. (1998). Recidivism in convicted rapists. Journal of the
American Academy of Psychiatry & Law, 26(2), 185–200.
*Fischer, D. R. (2000). Sex offender risk assessment validation study.
Phoenix, AZ: Arizona Department of Corrections.
*Fitch, J. H. (1962). Men convicted of sexual offences against children: A
descriptive follow-up study. British Journal of Criminology, 3, 18 –37.
*Frisbie, L. V., & Dondis, E. H. (1965). Recidivism among treated sex
offenders (California Mental Health Monograph No. 5). Sacramento:
State of California Department of Mental Hygiene.
Gendreau, P., French, S. A., & Gionet, A. (2004). What works (what
doesn’t work): The principles of effective correctional treatment. Jour-
nal of Community Corrections, 13, 4 6, 27–30.
Gendreau, P., Little, T., & Goggin, C. (1996). A meta-analysis of the
predictors of adult offender recidivism: What works! Criminology, 34,
575– 607.
*Gfellner, B. M. (2000). Adult sex offenders in treatment programs:
Predictors of success and recidivism (Research Rep. to the Sex Offender
Treatment Advisory Group (SOTAG). Brandon, Manitoba, Canada.
Gottfredson, M. R., & Hirschi, T. (1990). A general theory of crime.
Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
*Greenberg, D. M., Da Silva, J., & Loh, N. (2002). Evaluation of the
Western Australian sex offender treatment unit (1987–1999): A quanti-
tative analysis. Perth: University of Western Australia, Forensic Re-
search Unit, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Sciences.
*Greenberg, D. M., Firestone, P., Bradford, J. M., & Broom, I. (2000).
Infantophiles. In L. B. Schlesinger (Ed.), Serial offenders: Current
thought, recent findings (pp. 229 –246). New York: CRC Press.
1160
HANSON AND MORTON-BOURGON
*Gretton, H. M. (1995). [The relationship between phallometric assess-
ment and recidivism among 185 juvenile sex offenders]. Unpublished
raw data.
*Gretton, H. M., McBride, M., Hare, R. D., O’Shaughnessy, R., & Kumka,
G. (2001). Psychopathy and recidivism in adolescent sex offenders.
Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28, 427– 499.
Grotpellier, J. K., & Elliott, D. S. (2002). Violent sexual offending. Boul-
der: Center for the Study and Prevention of Violence, University of
Colorado.
*Hall, G. C. N. (1988). Criminal behavior as a function of clinical and
actuarial variables in a sexual offender population. Journal of Consulting
and Clinical Psychology, 56, 773–775.
Hall, G. C. N. (1995). Sexual offender recidivism revisited: A meta-
analysis of recent treatment studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical
Psychology, 63, 802– 809.
*Hanson, R. K. (2002). [Evaluation of Manitoba’s Secondary Risk Assess-
ment]. Unpublished raw data.
Hanson, R. K., & Bussie`re, M. T. (1998). Predicting relapse: A meta-
analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and
Clinical Psychology, 66, 348 –362.
Hanson, R. K., Gordon, A., Harris, A. J. R., Marques, J. K., Murphy, W.,
Quinsey, V. L., & Seto, M. C. (2002). First report of the Collaborative
Outcome Data Project on the effectiveness of psychological treatment
for sex offenders. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment,
14, 169 –194.
*Hanson, R. K., & Harris, A. J. R. (2000a). [Dynamic predictors of sexual
recidivism based on comparing 208 recidivists and 201 non-recidivists
on community supervision]. Unpublished raw data.
Hanson, R. K., & Harris, A. J. R. (2000b). Where should we intervene?
Dynamic predictors of sex offense recidivism. Criminal Justice and
Behavior, 27, 6 –35.
Hanson, R. K., Morton, K. E., & Harris, A. J. R. (2003). Sexual offender
recidivism risk: What we know and what we need to know. In R. A.
Prentky, E. S. Janus, & M. C. Seto (Eds.), Annals of the New York
Academy of Sciences: Vol. 989. Sexually coercive behavior: Under-
standing and management (pp. 154 –166). New York: New York Acad-
emy of Sciences.
Hanson, R. K., & Morton-Bourgon, K. E. (2004). Predictors of sexual
recidivism: An updated meta-analysis. (Research Rep. No. 2004 02).
Ottawa, Canada: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada.
*Hanson, R. K., Steffy, R. A., Scott, H., & Gauthier, R. (1993). [Long-term
recidivism of child molesters released from Millbrook Institution be-
tween 1958 & 1974]. Unpublished raw data.
Hare, R. D., Harpur, T. J., Hakstian, A. R., Forth, A. E., Hart, S. D., &
Newman, J. P. (1990). The Revised Psychopathy Checklist: Reliability
and factor structure. Psychological Assessment, 2, 338 –341.
*Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Quinsey, V. L., Lalumiere, M. L., Boer, D., &
Lang, C. (2003). A multi-site comparison of actuarial risk instruments
for sex offenders. Psychological Assessment, 15, 413– 425.
Hasselblad, V., & Hedges, L. V. (1995). Meta-analysis of screening and
diagnostic tests. Psychological Bulletin, 117, 167–178.
*Haynes, A. K., Yates, P. M., Nicholaichuk, T., Gu, D., & Bolton, R.
(2000, June). Sexual deviancy, risk and recidivism: The relationship
between deviant arousal, the RRASOR and sexual recidivism. Paper
presented at the annual conference of the Canadian Psychological As-
sociation, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
*Hecker, J., Scoular, J., Righthand, S., & Nangle, D. (2002, October).
Predictive validity of the J-SOAP over 10-plus years: Implications for
risk assessment. Poster presented at the 21st annual conference of the
Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, Montreal, Quebec,
Canada.
Hedges, L. V., & Olkin, I. (1985). Statistical methods for meta-analysis.
New York: Academic Press.
*Hildebrand, M., de Ruiter, C., & de Vogel, V. (2004). Psychopathy and
sexual deviance in treated rapists: Association with (sexual) recidivism.
Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 16, 1–24.
*Hood, R., Shute, S., Feilzer, M., & Wilcox, A. (2002). Sex offenders
emerging from long-term imprisonment: A study of their long-term
reconviction rates and of parole board members’ judgments of their risk.
British Journal of Criminology, 42, 371–394.
*Hudson, S. M., Wales, D. S., Bakker, L., & Ward, T. (2002). Dynamic
risk factors: The Kia Marama evaluation. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of
Research and Treatment, 14, 103–119.
Hudson, S. M., & Ward, T. (1997). Rape: Psychopathology and theory. In
D. R. Laws & W. O’Donohue (Eds.), Sexual deviance: Theory, assess-
ment and treatment (pp. 332–355). New York: Guilford Press.
*Kahn, T. J., & Chambers, H. J. (1991). Assessing reoffense risk with
juvenile sexual offenders. Child Welfare, 70, 333–345.
Kelly, A. E. (2000). Helping construct desirable identities: A self-
presentational view of psychotherapy. Psychological Bulletin, 126, 475–
494.
*Khanna, A., Brown, P., Malcolm, P. B., & Williams, S. M. (1989, March).
Outcome data on sex offenders assessed and treated at Regional Treat-
ment Centre (Ontario). Paper presented at the annual meeting of the
Special Needs Offenders Conference, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Knight, R. A., & Sims-Knight, J. E. (2003). The developmental anteced-
ents of sexual coercion against women: Testing alternative hypotheses
with structural equation modeling. In R. A. Prentky, E. S. Janus, & M. C.
Seto (Eds.), Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences: Vol. 989.
Sexually coercive behavior: Understanding and management (pp. 72–
85). New York: New York Academy of Sciences.
Koss, M. P. (1987). Hidden rape: Sexual aggression and victimization in a
national sample of students in higher education. In A. W. Burgess (Ed.),
Rape and sexual assault II (pp. 3–25). New York: Garland.
*Lab, S. P., Shields, G., & Schondel, C. (1993). Research note: An
evaluation of juvenile sexual offender treatment. Crime and Delin-
quency, 39, 543–553.
*Langevin, R., & Fedoroff, J. P. (2000). 25 year recidivism study of sex
offenders. Unpublished manuscript.
*Långstro¨m, N. (2002a). Long-term follow-up of criminal recidivism in
young offenders: Temporal patterns and risk factors. Psychology, Crime
& the Law, 8, 41–58.
*Långstro¨m, N. (2002b). [Relationship of denial to recidivism among 46
juvenile sex offenders in Sweden]. Unpublished raw data.
*Långstro¨m, N., & Grann, M. (2000). Risk for criminal recidivism among
young sex offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 15, 855– 871.
*Långstro¨m, N., Sjo¨stedt, G., & Grann, M. (2004). Psychiatric disorders
and recidivism among sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of
Research and Treatment, 16, 139 –150.
*Langton, C. M. (2003a). Contrasting approaches to risk assessment with
adult male sexual offenders: An evaluation of recidivism prediction
schemes and the utility of supplementary clinical information for en-
hancing predictive accuracy. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Institute
of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
*Langton, C. M. (2003b). [The relationship between progress in treatment
and recidivism among 444 sexual offenders released from Warkworth
Institution]. Unpublished raw data.
Lee, J., Jackson, H., Pattison, P., & Ward, T. (2002). Developmental risk
factors for sexual offending. Child Abuse & Neglect, 26, 73–92.
Lisak, D., & Miller, P. M. (2002). Repeat rape and multiple offending
among undetected rapists. Violence and Victims, 17, 73– 84.
*Mair, K. J., & Wilson, D. (1994). Prevalence, prediction and persevera-
tion of sexual reoffending in a sample identified through court records.
Unpublished manuscript.
*Mair, K. J., & Wilson, D. (1995). Sexual reconviction over time in
Scottish sex offenders identified through court records. Unpublished
manuscript.
Malamuth, N. M. (2003). Criminal and noncriminal sexual aggressors:
1161
CHARACTERISTICS OF PERSISTENT SEXUAL OFFENDERS
Integrating psychopathy in heirarchical-mediational confluence model.
In R. A. Prentky, E. S. Janus, & M. C. Seto (Eds.), Annals of the New
York Academy of Sciences: Vol. 989. Sexually coercive behavior: Un-
derstanding and management (pp. 33–58). New York: New York Acad-
emy of Sciences.
*Marques, J. K., & Day, D. M. (1996). [SOTEP follow-up data for 1995].
Unpublished raw data.
*Marques, J. K., Day, D. M., Wiederanders, M., & Nelson, C. (2002,
October). Main effects and beyond: New findings from California’s Sex
Offender Treatment & Evaluation Project (SOTEP). Paper presented at
the 21st annual conference of the Association for the Treatment of
Sexual Abusers, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
Marques, J. K., Wiederanders, M., Day, D. M., Nelson, C., & van Om-
meren, A. (2005). Effects of a relapse prevention program on sexual
recidivism: Final results from California’s Sex Offender Treatment and
Evaluation Project (SOTEP). Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and
Treatment, 17, 79 –107.
Marshall, P. (1997). The prevalence of convictions for sexual offending
(Research Finding No. 55). London: Research and Statistics Directorate,
Home Office.
Marshall, W. L. (1997). Pedophilia: Psychopathology and theory. In D. R.
Laws & W. O’Donohue (Eds.), Sexual deviance: Theory, assessment
and treatment (pp. 152–174). New York: Guilford Press.
*Marshall, W. L., & Barbaree, H. E. (1988). The long-term evaluation of
a behavioral treatment program for child molesters. Behaviour, Research
and Therapy, 26, 499 –511.
*McBride, M., Gretton, H., Hare, R. D. (1995, October). Familial risk
factors, psychopathy and recidivism in adolescent sexual offenders.
Paper presented at the annual conference of the Association for the
Treatment of Sexual Abusers, New Orleans, LA.
McGrath, R. J., Cumming, G. F., & Burchard, B. L. (2003). Current
practices and trends in sexual abuser management. Brandon, VT: Safer
Society.
*McGrath, R. J., Cumming, G., Livingston, J. A., & Hoke, S. E. (2003).
Outcome of a treatment program for adult sex offenders: From prison to
community. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 18(1), 3–17.
McKibben, A., Proulx, J., & Lusignan, R. (1994). Relationships between
conflict, affect and deviant sexual behaviours in rapists and pedophiles.
Behaviour Research and Therapy, 13, 571–575.
*Meyer, L. C., & Romero, J. (1980). A ten-year follow-up of sex offender
recidivism. Unpublished manuscript.
*Meyer, W. J., Cole, C., & Emory, E. (1992). Depo Provera treatment for
sex offending behaviour: An evaluation of outcome. Bulletin of the
American Academy of Psychiatry and Law, 20, 249 –259.
*Miner, M. H. (2002). [Factors associated with recidivism among 129
juvenile sex offenders released from Minnesota Corrections]. Unpub-
lished raw data.
*Minnesota Department of Corrections. (1999). Community-based sex
offender program evaluation project: 1999 report to the legislature. St.
Paul, MN: Author.
Moffitt, T. E. (1993). “Life-course-persistent” and “adolescence-limited”
antisocial behavior: A developmental taxomony. Psychological Review,
100, 893–910.
Moffitt, T. E., Caspi, A., Belsky, J., & Silva, P. A. (1992). Childhood
experience and the onset of menarche: A test of a sociobiological model.
Child Development, 63, 47–58.
*Mohr, J. W., Turner, R. E., & Jerry, M. B. (1964). Pedophilia and
exhibitionism. Toronto, Canada: University of Toronto Press.
*Money, J., & Bennett, R. G. (1981). Post adolescent paraphilic sex
offenders: Antiandrogenic and counseling therapy follow-up. Interna-
tional Journal of Mental Health, 10, 122–133.
*Morton, K. E. (2003). [Recidivism prediction in a sample of male ado-
lescent sexual offenders assessed at a community sexual offender treat-
ment program]. Unpublished raw data.
*Motiuk, L. L., & Brown, S. L. (1995). [Survival time for sexual offenders
released from the Correctional Services of Canada in 1991 & 1994].
Unpublished raw data.
*Mulloy, R., & Smiley, W. C. (1996). Recidivism and treated sex offend-
ers. Paper presented at the International Congress of Psychologists,
Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
*Nunes, K. L., Serran, G. A., Firestone, P., Greenberg, D. M., & Bradford,
J. M. (2000, November). A comparison of child molesters who deny vs.
those who admit their offenses. Paper presented at the annual conference
for the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, San Diego, CA.
*Nutbrown, V., & Stasiak, E. (1987). A retrospective analysis of O. C. I.
cost effectiveness 1977– 81 (Ontario Correctional Institute Research
Monograph No. 2). Brampton, Ontario, Canada: Ontario Ministry of
Correctional Services.
*Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction. (2001). Ten-year
recidivism follow-up of 1989 sex offender releases. Columbus, OH:
Author.
Orwin, R. G. (1994). Evaluating coding decisions. In H. Cooper & L. V.
Hedges (Eds.), The handbook of research synthesis (pp. 139 –162). New
York: Russell Sage Foundation.
*Pacht, A. R., & Roberts, L. M. (1968). Factors related to parole experi-
ence and the deviated sex offender. Correctional Psychologist, 3, 8 –11.
*Perkins, D. (1987). A psychological treatment programme for sex offend-
ers. In B. J. McGurk, D. M. Thornton, and M. Williams (Eds.), Applying
psychology to imprisonment: Theory and practice (pp. 191–249). Lon-
don: Her Majesty’s Stationery Office.
*Prentky, R., Harris, B., Frizzell, K., & Righthand, S. (2000). An actuarial
procedure for assessing risk with juvenile sex offenders. Sexual Abuse:
A Journal of Research and Treatment, 12, 71–93.
*Prentky, R., Knight, R. A., & Lee, A. F. S. (1997). Risk factors associated
with recidivism among extrafamilial child molesters. Journal of Con-
sulting and Clinical Psychology, 65, 141–149.
*Prentky, R. A., Knight, R. A., Lee, A. F., & Cerce, D. D. (1995).
Predictive validity of lifestyle impulsivity for rapists. Criminal Justice
and Behavior, 22, 106 –128.
*Proulx, J., Pellerin, B., McKibben, A., Aubut, J., & Ouimet, M. (1995).
[Static and dynamic predictors in sexual aggressors]. Unpublished raw
data.
*Quinsey, V. L., Khanna, A., & Malcolm, P. B. (1998). A retrospective
evaluation of the Regional Treatment Centre sex offender treatment
program. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 13, 621– 644.
Quinsey, V. L., Lalumie`re, M. L., Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T. (1995).
Predicting sexual offenses. In J. C. Campbell (Ed.), Assessing danger-
ousness: Violence by sexual offenders, batterers, and child abusers (pp.
114 –137). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
*Quinsey, V. L., Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T. (1995). Actuarial prediction
of sexual recidivism. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 10, 85–105.
*Rabinowitz-Greenberg, S. R. (1999). Predictors of recidivism in a pop-
ulation of Canadian exhibitionists: Psychological, phallometric and
offense factors. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Ottawa,
Ottawa, Canada.
*Radzinowicz, L. (1957). Sexual offenses: A report of the Cambridge
Department of Criminal Science. London: MacMillan.
*Rasmussen, L. A. (1999). Factors related to recidivism among juvenile
sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment,
11, 69 85.
Raymond, N. C., Coleman, E., Ohlerking, R., Christensen, G. A., & Miner,
M. (1999). Psychiatric comorbidity in pedophilic sex offenders. Amer-
ican Journal of Psychiatry, 156, 786 –788.
*Reddon, J. R., Studer, L., & Estrada, L. (1996). [Recidivism data from the
Pheonix Program for sex offender treatment]. Unpublished raw data.
*Rice, M. E., Harris, G. T., & Quinsey, V. L. (1990). A follow-up of rapists
assessed in a maximum security psychiatric facility. Journal of Inter-
personal Violence, 5, 435– 448.
1162
HANSON AND MORTON-BOURGON
*Rice, M. E., Quinsey, V. L., & Harris, G. T. (1989). Predicting sexual
recidivism among treated and untreated extrafamilial child molesters
released from a maximum security psychiatric institution (Penetanguish-
ene Mental Health Centre Research Report, Vol. VI (3)). Penetanguish-
ene, Ontario, Canada.
*Rice, M. E., Quinsey, V. L., & Harris, G. T. (1991). Sexual recidivism
among child molesters released from a maximum security psychiatric
institution. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 59, 381–386.
Roberts, C. F., Doren, D. M., & Thornton, D. (2002). Dimensions associ-
ated with assessments of sex offender recidivism risk. Criminal Justice
and Behavior, 29, 569 –589.
*Rooth, F. G., & Marks, I. M. (1974). Persistent exhibitionism: Short-term
response to aversion, self-regulation, and relaxation treatments. Archives
of Sexual Behavior, 3, 227–249.
*Ryan, G., & Miyoshi, T. (1990). Summary of a pilot follow-up study of
adolescent sexual perpetrators after treatment. Interchange, 1, 6–8.
*Santman, J. (1998). A taxonomic model of juvenile sexual offender recid-
ivism. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, CA School of Professional
Psychology, Fresno, CA.
*Schram, D. D., & Milloy, C. D. (1995). Community notification: A study
of offender characteristics and recidivism. Olympia, WA: Washington
State Institute for Public Policy.
*Serin, R. C., Mailloux, D. L., & Malcolm, P. B. (2001). Psychopathy,
deviant sexual arousal and recidivism among sexual offenders. Journal
of Interpersonal Violence, 16, 234 –246.
*Sjo¨stedt, G., & Långstro¨m, N. (2001). Actuarial assessment of sex of-
fender recidivism risk: A cross-validation of the RRASOR and the
Static-99 in Sweden. Law and Human Behaviour, 25, 629 645.
*Sjo¨stedt, G., & Långstro¨m, N. (2002). Assessment of risk for criminal
recidivism among rapists: A comparison of four different measures.
Psychology, Crime & the Law, 8, 25– 40.
Slavin, R. E. (1995). Best evidence synthesis: An intelligent alternative to
meta-analysis. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 48, 9 –18.
Sluyter, F., Arseneault, L., Moffitt, T. E., Veenema, A. H., de Boer, S., &
Koolhaas, J. M. (2003). Toward an animal model for antisocial behavior:
Parallels between mice and humans. Behavior Genetics, 33, 563–574.
Smallbone, S. W., & Dadds, M. R. (1998). Childhood attachment and adult
attachment in incarcerated adult male sex offenders. Journal of Inter-
personal Violence, 13, 555–573.
*Smith, W. R., & Monastersky, C. (1986). Assessing juvenile sexual
offenders’ risk for reoffending. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 13,
115–140.
*Song, L., & Lieb, R. (1994). [Recidivism data for the study of Washing-
ton State’s sentencing alternative for sex offenders]. Unpublished raw
data.
*Soothill, K. L., Jack, A., & Gibbens, T. C. N. (1976). Rape: A 22-year
cohort study. Medicine, Science, and the Law, 16, 62– 69.
*Soothill, K. L., Way, C. K., & Gibbens, T. C. N. (1980). Rape acquittals.
Modern Law Review, 43, 159 –172.
*Sturup, G. K. (1953). Sexual offenders and their treatment in Denmark
and the other Scandinavian countries. International Review of Criminal
Policy, 4, 1–19.
*Sturup, G. K. (1960). Sex offenses: The Scandinavian experience. Law
and Contemporary Problems, 25, 361–375.
*Thornton, D. (1997). [A 16-year follow-up of 563 sexual offenders from
HM Prison Service in 1979]. Unpublished raw data.
*Thornton, D. (2002). [Factors associated with sexual recidivism in a
sample of treated sex offenders]. Unpublished raw data.
*Tough, S. E. (2001). Validation of two standardized risk assessments
(RRASOR, 1997; Static-99, 1999) on a sample of adult males who are
developmentally disabled with significant cognitive deficits. Unpub-
lished master’s thesis, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
*Tracy, F., Donnelly, H., Morgenbesser, L., & MacDonald, D. (1983).
Program evaluation: Recidivism research involving sex offenders. In
J. G. Greer & I. R. Stuart (Eds.), The sexual aggressor: Current
perspectives on treatment (pp. 198 –213). New York: Van Nostrand
Reinhold.
*Waite, D., Pinkerton, R., Wieckowski, E., McGarvey, E., & Brown, G. L.
(2002, October). Tracking treatment outcome among juvenile sexual
offenders: A nine year follow-up study. Paper presented at the 21st
annual conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abus-
ers, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
Ward, T., & Siegert, R. J. (2002). Toward a comprehensive theory of child
sexual abuse: A theory knitting perspective. Psychology, Crime, & Law,
8, 319 –351.
*Weaver, C., & Fox, C. (1984). The Berkeley Sex Offenders Group: A
seven-year evaluation. Probation Journal, 31, 143–146.
West, D. J. (1983). Sex offenses and offending. In M. Tonry & N. Morris
(Eds.). Crime and justice: An annual review of research (pp. 183–233).
Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
*Wing, S. W. (1984). A study of reoffenses by treated sex offenders at
Western State Hospital. Unpublished manuscript.
*Witte, T., Di Placido, C., Gu, D., & Wong, S. (2002, May). Criminal
Sentiments Scale: Predictive validity in a sample of sexual offenders
primarily composed of rapists. Poster presented at the 63rd annual
convention of the Canadian Psychological Association, Vancouver, Brit-
ish Columbia, Canada.
*Witte, T., Di Placido, C., & Wong, S. (2001). How dangerous are
dangerous sex offenders? An estimation of recidivism and level of risk
using a matched control group. Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada:
Regional Psychiatric Centre.
*Worling, J. R. (2001). Personality-based typology of adolescent male
sexual offenders: Differences in recidivism rates, victim-selection char-
acteristics, and personal victimization histories. Sexual Abuse: A Journal
of Research and Treatment, 13, 149 –166.
Received July 20, 2004
Revision received May 2, 2005
Accepted May 4, 2005
1163
CHARACTERISTICS OF PERSISTENT SEXUAL OFFENDERS
... Inre motivation betonas ofta som viktig för engagemang i behandling generellt (Prochaska & DiClemente, 1982). Trots detta visar empirisk forskning på psykologisk behandling för sexualbrottsdömda att låg motivation vid intag i behandling inte förutsäger negativa behandlingsresultat i form av återfall i brott (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2005). Detta lite förvånande resultat kan förstås i ljuset av stigmatisering och skam relaterat till sexualbrott. ...
... Olika psykologiska försvarsmekanismer mot skam kan försvåra för professionella att göra en korrekt bedömning av uppriktig ånger och motivation att inte återfalla (A. Frost, 2016;Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2005). ...
... Efterhandskognitioner å andra sidan syftar till ursäkter eller rättfärdiganden som inte är relaterade till återfall. Istället utgör de snarare normala hanteringsstrategier för att bevara en acceptabel självbild eller undvika stigma (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2005; W. L. Maruna & Mann, 2006;Ware & Mann, 2012). Sådana ursäkter kan till exempel vara "Jag gjorde det för att jag var full". ...
Research
Full-text available
This Research and Development report is published by the Swedish Prison and Probation Service and contains the findings from my doctoral thesis in Swedish and with focus on relevance for the correctional system.
... A number of individual risk factors could be identified from the data, including substance abuse and personality disorders. These risk factors have been identified in numerous studies as prevalent among individuals with a history of ICSA (Biedermann et al., 2023;Eher et al., 2019), and they are significantly correlated with sexual recidivism (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2005, 2009. The only study known to the authors which empirically investigated the VTIM was conducted by Terry Trepper himself (Trepper et al., 1997). ...
... This is consistent with our findings, which did not indicate that impulsivity is a stable personality trait associated with antisociality or psychopathy in our sample. Consequently, although impulsivity is a significant risk factor for sexual recidivism (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2005;Mann et al., 2010;Olver & Eher, 2020), further evaluation is required to determine the relevance of different behavioral components of the multidimensional construct of impulsivity in the context of ICSA. ...
Article
Full-text available
Previous research about intrafamilial child sexual abuse was not able to identify specific risk factors that distinguish this unique subgroup from other sexual offending subgroups. In comparison to other groups of sexual offenders, men convicted of intrafamilial sexual child abuse (ICSA) are found to exhibit more similarities to non-offending fathers than extrafamilial sexual offenders. Consequently, the risk assessment of sexual recidivism among “incest offenders” lacks evidence-based evaluation criteria. Given the suggestion that family system factors should be included in research on the onset of ICSA, we employed the Vulnerability to Incest Model proposed by Trepper and Barrett (1989, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203776605 ) in a qualitative single-case analysis. A comparative analysis of ten court evaluations of ICSA offenders revealed that all families in which ICSA has occurred demonstrated at least two vulnerability factors. The analyzed offenders exhibited comparable patterns of masculine sexual entitlement. The utility of this recently developed construct for sexual violence research is discussed and implications for further research proposed.
... Σύμφωνα με τη διεθνή ερευνητική εμπειρία η εμπλοκή στο ποινικό σύστημα (ιστορικό παραβατικής/αντικοινωνικής συμπεριφοράς) κατά την περίοδο της ανηλικότητας αποτελεί έναν σταθερά ισχυρό παράγοντα «διακινδύνευσης» ο οποίος φαίνεται να αυξάνει την πιθανότητα για την εκδήλωση υποτροπής είτε κατά την ίδια ηλικιακή περίοδο είτε κατά την ενήλικη ζωή (Gendreau, Little and Goggin 1996, Hanson and Morton-Bourgon 2005, Mulder et al. 2011. Η επαφή με το σύστημα απονομής ποινικής δικαιοσύνης έχει διερευνηθεί ως παράγοντας «διακινδύνευσης» για την υποτροπή στο πλαίσιο μελέτης του «ιστορικού της παραβατικότητας» (λ.χ. ...
... On one hand, most psychological interventions for individuals who have perpetrated CSA follow the risk-need-responsivity (RNR) model, which posits that only criminogenic factors should be addressed in treatment (Bonta and Andrews 2017). Currently, there is a lack of clear scientific evidence linking victim empathy to sexual recidivism (e.g., Hanson and Morton-Bourgon 2005). On the other hand, studies focusing on the perceptions of individuals who perpetrated CSA have identified the victim empathy module as the foremost target for change in psychological interventions (Colton et al. 2009;Dervley et al. 2017;Levenson et al. 2009). ...
Article
Full-text available
Victim empathy is a common intervention target in intervention programs designed for individuals who perpetrated child sexual abuse (CSA). Researchers have developed the Victim Empathy Distortion Scale (VES), an instrument designed to assess empathy for victims of CSA. The present study aims to adapt the VES for the Portuguese population and examine its psychometric properties. One hundred and twelve individuals who perpetrated CSA and 245 individuals from the community participated in this study. The confirmatory factor analysis did not show satisfactory indices for the structures previously tested. Consequently, the search for an alternative model revealed a two-factor structure, explaining approximately 50% of the total variance. Results also indicated good internal consistency, discriminant validity, and known-groups validity. Overall, the results support the claim that the Portuguese version of the VES is a valuable and psychometrically reliable instrument for measuring victim empathy in forensic and non-forensic settings.
... Considering the ambiguity of the outcome it is suggested that future research could investigate ostracism as a variable specifically in connection with adverse childhood experiences of sexual abuse. Mapping on to the cyclical nature of sexual abuse experiences and paraphilic thoughts and attitudes [35,2,17], investigation into whether adverse childhood experiences cause affective ostracism experiences and whether social support moderates this could build upon this present work. ...
Article
Child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) users elicit strong negative reactions from society and people within their networks. There are symbolic and social boundaries that these individuals have transgressed, and subsequent identity work involves the negotiation of self and self-presentation. This article combines results from two studies to explore negotiation of identity, symbolic and social boundaries, and associated narratives among 103 CSEM users. One study was an anthropological ethnography with 17 months of UK fieldwork in community-based group programs, and the other involved four months of interviews in sexual offense treatment units of a US prison. Participants’ identity work had commonalities: distinguishing between acts vs identities; differentiating crimes from identities; comparing offenses to others viewed as worse; framing childhood experiences as influencing offending; and situating both offending and post-offending identities within larger society. Results are discussed in the context of debates about risk, treatment, prevention, harm, denial/downplay/minimization, and reintegration. Furthermore, we highlight how identity work occurs within potentially competing/contrasting personal, judicial, treatment, media, and societal reactions to and expectations of individuals who have committed sexual offenses. Finally, we demonstrate the methodological and analytical value of cross-disciplinary comparative qualitative research by showing similarities across participants from different countries, settings, timeframes, and interventions.
Article
Research has consistently found sexual recidivism risk drops as men convicted of sexual offenses age, but little research exists on those few men who do sexually offend when older. The current study examined the criminal histories, risk profiles, and predictors of sexual recidivism in a large sample of men who sexually offended over the age of 60 years. Analyses showed low levels of sexual offending under the age of 60 years prior to the commission of a sexual offense over the age of 60 years, with only 27% of the sample having sexually offended under 60 years. Examination of the risk profiles of the sample evidenced high levels of possible deviant sexual attraction and sexual cognitive distortions, which restricted the range on these variables, and limited their ability to predict sexual recidivism. Instead, nonsexual risk factors and protective factors appeared better predictors of sexual recidivism for men who have sexually offended over the age of 60 years.
Book
Full-text available
Ovaj priručnik pruža sveobuhvatan uvid u složeni proces kriminalističkog profilisanja, s posebnim fokusom na detekciju zločinačkih umova. Profilisanje, kao disciplina koja kombinuje psihologiju, forenziku, sociologiju i kriminologiju, omogućava istražiteljima da stvore detaljan psihološki i bihevioralni profil zločinca, što može biti ključni faktor u rešavanju složenih zločina. Sadržaj pruža temeljni pregled ključnih tema i metoda obrađenih u priručniku, što ga čini neophodnim alatom za svakoga ko je zainteresovan za kriminalističko profilisanje i detekciju zločinačkih umova, uključujući analizu neverbalne komunikacije kao metode detekcije laži, korišćenje profilisanja kao efikasnog alata u sprečavanju zločina, te profilisanje različitih vrsta zločinaca kao što su nasilnici, ubice, narko dileri, trgovci ljudima, teroristi, prostitutke, makroi, silovatelji, pedofili, i maloletni prestupnici.Priručnik takođe sadrži dodatne resurse, uključujući simulaciju raznih slučajeva, grafičke prikaze, test pitanja sa odgovorima za proveru znanja, alate za profilisanje i obimnu literaturu koja može biti korisna za dalja istraživanja i praksu u ovoj oblasti.
Article
Full-text available
Meta-analyses were performed on 12 studies of treatment with sexual offenders (N = 1,313). A small, but robust, overall effect size was found for treatment versus comparison conditions (r = .12). The overall recidivism rate for treated sexual offenders was .19 versus .27 for untreated sexual offenders. Treatment effect sizes across studies, however, were heterogeneous. Effect sizes were larger in studies that had higher base rates of recidivism, had follow-up periods longer than 5 years, included outpatients, and involved cognitive–behavioral or hormonal treatments. Cognitive–behavioral (p < .0005) and hormonal treatments (p < .00005) were significantly more effective than behavioral treatments but were not significantly different from each other.
Book
Full-text available
Prevalence of Convictions for Sexual Offending, and recidivism rates for an unselected sample of men convicted of sexual offences
Article
Long-term recidivism rates of 180 male sexual offender treatment completers and almost completers (persons who had been in treatment 2 years plus and had only a few goals to complete) were compared in this study. All men in this study were followed after treatment from 6 months to 17 years by interviews, anonymous questionnaires, and/or criminal record checks. The treatment center, located in Minneapolis, checked all criminal records in Minnesota and surrounding states or country: North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Canada. Seventeen men had reoffended sexually and five others had reoffended criminally (theft, DWI, etc.) but not sexually. Only those finishing treatment or nearly finishing treatment were addressed in this study, recognizing that self-selection and program screening may have contributed to the statistical success of this outpatient program. The anonymous questionnaire addressed issues regarding the offender's original offenses and the success or nonsuccess of treatment techniques as judged by them. Data regarding problematic areas still existing in their lives were collected. Of these 180 treated men, 108 men also appeared, or telephoned in, for personal interviews (using a second structured questionnaire, as opposed to the anonymous one mailed to each patient). They were interviewed six times each during the 17 years. The personal interviews yielded other aspects of data used to cross-validate the questionnaires and the criminal record checks. Total sexual recidivism was 9.0%. Data thus indicate that treatment was successful for 91% of these men. The need for more sophisticated research about what constitutes successful treatment is addressed in the discussion.
Article
Risk assessment is an essential part of clinical practice. Each of the three aspects of risk (static, stable, and acute dynamic) are important at various points of contact between the man and the systems that are responsible for providing service. Dynamic factors, the typical treatment and supervision targets, have received less research attention than static factors. This paper examined the extent to which pretreatment, posttreatment and change scores were associated with reoffending among men incarcerated for sexually molesting. The results were generally supportive of change in prooffending attitudes as the key to not reoffending and suggested that the perspective-taking component of empathy and the use of fantasy may be important mechanisms. Affect scales generally failed to show any relationship with reoffending, outside decreases in trait and suppressed anger. Moreover, these data suggest that we could improve our assessments and treatment through increased sensitivity to offense pathways.