Projecting the number of patients with colorectal carcinoma by phases of care in the US: 2000–2020

Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
Cancer Causes and Control (Impact Factor: 2.74). 01/2007; 17(10):1215-26. DOI: 10.1007/s10552-006-0072-0
Source: PubMed


This study provides projections of colorectal cancer prevalence by phases of care (initial, monitoring, and last year of life) to the year 2020 and describes the estimation method.
Cancer prevalence by phase of care was estimated from colorectal cancer incidence and survival from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program data, population estimates and projections from the US Census Bureau, and all cause mortality data from the Human Mortality Life Tables. Assumptions of constant incidence and survival were used for projections from 2000 to 2020. Modeled and directly observed patient months by phase of care were compared for 1996 -1998 to provide validation of estimates.
Prevalence of colorectal cancer is estimated to increase from 1,002,786 (0.36%) patients to 1,522,348 (0.46%) patients between 2000 and 2020. The estimated number of person-months in the initial and last year of life phases of care will increase 43%, while the monitoring phase of care will increase 54%. Modeled person-months by phase of care were consistent with directly observed measures of person months by phase of care in 1996-1998.
Under assumptions of current cancer control strategies we project that colorectal cancer prevalence will increase more rapidly than the US population, largely due to the aging of the US population. This suggests that considerable resources will be needed in the future for initial, continuing and last year of life treatment of colorectal cancer patients unless notable breakthroughs in primary prevention occur in the future years.

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    • "One of the advantages of this procedure is that it allows the direct estimation of the net cancer costs, without using a control cohort of non-cancer subjects matched to patients by sex, age, location area and phase of care, as elsewhere proposed in the literature [10]. Another advantage is the direct identification of prevalent cases in the final phase by counting the number of deaths during the following year – information on life status follow-up is provided by the CR using the National Death Certificate Database– rather than estimating a survival curve, as elsewhere proposed [8]. "
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    ABSTRACT: Due to changes in cancer-related risk factors, improvements in diagnostic procedures and treatments, and the aging of the population, in most developed countries cancer accounts for an increasing proportion of health care expenditures. The analysis of cancer-related costs is a topic of several economic and epidemiological studies and represents a research area of great interest to public health planners and policy makers. In Italy studies are limited either to some specific types of expenditures or to specific groups of cancer patients. Aim of the paper is to estimate the distribution of cancer survivors and associated health care expenditures according to a disease pathway which identifies three clinically relevant phases: initial (one year following diagnosis), continuing (between initial and final) and final (one year before death). The methodology proposed is based on the reconstruction of patterns of care at individual level by combining different data sources, surveillance data and administrative data, in areas covered by cancer registration. A total colorectal cancer-related expenditure of 77.8 million Euros for 18012 patients (corresponding to about 4300 Euros per capita) is estimated in 2006 in two Italian areas located in Tuscany and Veneto regions, respectively. Cost of care varies according to the care pathway: 11% of patients were in the initial phase, and consumed 34% of total expenditure; patients in the final (6%) and in the continuing (83%) phase consumed 23% and 43% of the budget, respectively. There is an association between patterns of care/costs and patients characteristics such as stage and age at diagnosis. This paper represents the first attempt to attribute health care expenditures in Italy to specific phases of disease, according to varying treatment approaches, surveillance strategies and management of relapses, palliative care. The association between stage at diagnosis, profile of therapies and costs supports the idea that primary prevention and early detection play an important role in a public health perspective. Results from this pilot study encourage the use of such analyses in a public health perspective, to increase understanding of patient outcomes and economic consequences of differences in policies related to cancer screening, treatment, and programs of care.
    Full-text · Article · Jul 2013 · BMC Cancer
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    • "Differences between countries of 5-year cancer prevalence were related to differences in incidence rates, strongly influenced by population ageing, and less strongly to differences in survival rates. This comprehensive comparison of 5-year prevalence, incidence, and 5-year survival is important to provide evidence for rational and appropriate resource allocations (Mariotto et al, 2006, 2011; Yabroff et al, 2008; Barlow, 2009), with particular priority to primary prevention of cancer (Micheli et al, 2009). "
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    ABSTRACT: Background: The objectives of this study were to quantitatively assess the geographic heterogeneity of cancer prevalence in selected Western Countries and to explore the associations between its determinants. Methods: For 20 cancer sites, 5-year cancer prevalence, incidence, and survival were observed and age standardised for the mid 2000s in the United States, Nordic European Countries, Italy, Australia, and France. Results: In Italy, 5-year crude prevalence for all cancers was 1.9% in men and 1.7% in women, while it was ∼1.5% in all other countries and sexes. After adjustment for the different age distribution of the populations, cancer prevalence in the United States was higher (20% in men and 10% in women) than elsewhere. For all cancers combined, the geographic heterogeneities were limited, though relevant for specific cancers (e.g., prostate, showing >30% higher prevalence in the United States, or lung, showing >50% higher prevalence in USA women than in other countries). For all countries, the correlations between differences of prevalence and differences of incidence were >0.9, while prevalence and survival were less consistently correlated. Conclusion: Geographic differences and magnitude of crude cancer prevalence were more strongly associated with incidence rates, influenced by population ageing, than with survival rates. These estimates will be helpful in allocating appropriate resources.
    Full-text · Article · Jun 2013 · British Journal of Cancer
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    • "Our estimates of colorectal cancer recurrence rates are incomparable with studies that have presented data on cancer recurrence together for all stages [5,7] due to the unknown distribution of individual stages in these studies. On the other hand, our results are fully comparable with the cumulative recurrence rates published for colorectal cancer stages I-III in the study of Manfredi et al. [37]. "
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    ABSTRACT: Colorectal cancer (CRC) represents a serious health care problem in the Czech Republic, introducing a need for a prospective modelling of the incidence and prevalence rates. The prevalence of patients requiring anti-tumour therapy is also of great importance, as it is directly associated with planning of health care resources. This work proposes a population-based model for the estimation of stage-specific prevalence of CRC patients who will require active anti-tumour therapy in a given year. Its applicability is documented on records of the Czech National Cancer Registry (CNCR), which is used to estimate the number of patients potentially treated with anti-tumour therapy in the Czech Republic in 2015. Several scenarios are adopted to cover the plausible development of the incidence and survival rates, and the probability of an anti-tumour therapy initiation. Based on the scenarios, the model predicts an increase in CRC prevalence from 13% to 30% in comparison with the situation in 2008. Moreover, the model predicts that 10,074 to 11,440 CRC patients will be indicated for anti-tumour therapy in the Czech Republic in 2015. Considering all patients with terminal cancer recurrence and all patients primarily diagnosed in stage IV, it is predicted that 3,485 to 4,469 CRC patients will be treated for the metastatic disease in 2015, which accounts for more than one third (34-40%) of all CRC patients treated this year. A new model for the estimation of the number of CRC patients requiring active anti-tumour therapy is proposed in this paper. The model respects the clinical stage as the primary stratification factor and utilizes solely the population-based cancer registry data. Thus, no specific hospital data records are needed in the proposed approach. Regarding the short-term prediction of the CRC burden in the Czech Republic, the model confirms a continuous increase in the burden that must be accounted for in the future planning of health care in the Czech Republic.
    Full-text · Article · Feb 2012 · BMC Public Health
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