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Energy and health. 2. Electricity generation and health. Lancet
Abstract
The provision of electricity has been a great benefit to society, particularly in health terms, but it also carries health costs. Comparison of different forms of commercial power generation by use of the fuel cycle methods developed in European studies shows the health burdens to be greatest for power stations that most pollute outdoor air (those based on lignite, coal, and oil). The health burdens are appreciably smaller for generation from natural gas, and lower still for nuclear power. This same ranking also applies in terms of greenhouse-gas emissions and thus, potentially, to long-term health, social, and economic effects arising from climate change. Nuclear power remains controversial, however, because of public concern about storage of nuclear waste, the potential for catastrophic accident or terrorist attack, and the diversion of fissionable material for weapons production. Health risks are smaller for nuclear fusion, but commercial exploitation will not be achieved in time to help the crucial near-term reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions. The negative effects on health of electricity generation from renewable sources have not been assessed as fully as those from conventional sources, but for solar, wind, and wave power, such effects seem to be small; those of biofuels depend on the type of fuel and the mode of combustion. Carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage is increasingly being considered for reduction of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel plants, but the health effects associated with this technology are largely unquantified and probably mixed: efficiency losses mean greater consumption of the primary fuel and accompanying increases in some waste products. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding the health effects of different methods of generating electricity.
... Additionally, fossil fuel extraction and combustion processes can lead to water pollution through spills, runoff, and thermal pollution. In contrast, solar energy systems generate electricity without emitting these harmful pollutants, leading to improved air quality and public health outcomes (Markandya & Wilkinson, 2007). Furthermore, solar energy systems do not require water for electricity generation, unlike thermal power plants, which often use large quantities of water for cooling. ...
... This reduction is critical in the global effort to mitigate climate change, as the construction sector is a signi cant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, solar energy systems contribute to the reduction of other pollutants such as sulfur dioxide (SO ) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), which are commonly associated with fossil fuel combustion (Markandya & Wilkinson, 2007). ...
... Solar energy integration has positively impacted air and water quality, as indicated by reduced levels of pollutants in areas where solar energy systems are used (Fig. 1). The gure illustrates a signi cant decrease in air pollutants such as sulfur dioxide (SO ) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), and improvements in water quality metrics, corroborating ndings from studies on the environmental bene ts of solar energy (Markandya & Wilkinson, 2007). This improvement in air quality is consistent with the ndings of , who highlighted the health bene ts of reducing air pollution. ...
This study investigates the environmental and economic benefits of integrating solar energy into the Nigerian construction sector, alongside the challenges and barriers hindering its adoption. Utilizing a mixed methods approach, the research combines quantitative data from surveys and qualitative insights from interviews and case studies. The findings demonstrate substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, highlighting the positive impact of solar energy on air and water quality. Economically, the analysis reveals high Net Present Values (NPV) and Internal Rates of Return (IRR), indicating that solar energy investments are financially viable with significant long-term savings. However, the study identifies key challenges, including financial constraints, technological limitations, regulatory hurdles, and social and cultural barriers. Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) provides a nuanced understanding of the multi-level factors influencing solar energy adoption, emphasizing the importance of individual awareness and organizational policy support. The study contributes to the existing literature on sustainable construction by providing empirical evidence and practical insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders. Recommendations include the development of supportive regulatory frameworks, financial incentives, public awareness campaigns, and community engagement strategies to overcome the identified barriers. Despite its limitations, this study underscores the critical role of solar energy in promoting environmental sustainability and economic development in Nigeria, calling for coordinated efforts to accelerate the transition to renewable energy solutions.
... According to Markandya & Wilkinson (2007), the deaths, serious and minor illness caused by electricity generation per TWh by energy source in Europe are the following (Table 5): Source: Markandya & Wilkinson (2007) Thus, according to the European Commission data of electricity production by polluting energy sources, the health effects in Germany for the year 2018 were (Table 6): ...
... According to Markandya & Wilkinson (2007), the deaths, serious and minor illness caused by electricity generation per TWh by energy source in Europe are the following (Table 5): Source: Markandya & Wilkinson (2007) Thus, according to the European Commission data of electricity production by polluting energy sources, the health effects in Germany for the year 2018 were (Table 6): ...
... The model´s thresholds are compiled in Table 8: (2016) and Markandya & Wilkinson (2007) Nevertheless, the fact that an energy generation source in the mix is limited to the threshold mentioned before suggests a strong preference of that source in the energy portfolio, in other words, the energy source(s) that reaches the threshold is (are) considered to be the most efficient within the mix and cannot be used as much as the model would have to if that restriction did not exist. If the model limits the share of the source in the minimum risk portfolio or the minimum generation cost of electricity portfolio, the source will be the most efficient in terms of risk or cost. ...
The targets of this Final Degree Thesis are to explain the current situation of the German Energy Sector, its evolution over time, to compare its features with the European Union Energy Sector, and finally, to forecast how it will be in future years according to a Markowitz optimization portfolio model. The study contextualizes the current characteristics of the German Energy sector, such as: composition of its energy mixes (both primary energy mix and electricity mix), energy demand, German energy consumers, infrastructure and pollution, always comparing these variables with the European Union´s Energy Sector. In order to understand the behavior of the previous variables over time, the regulation framework at both a national level and a European level is developed. So as to highlight how these guidelines and some other relevant events, such as the current SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, will define the German Energy Transition. Using Modern Portfolio Theory and applying the appropriate restrictions, a forecast of the electricity mix composition for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 and the implications that it has in terms of power prices, pollution and health was made: by 2030, 65% of the electricity produced in the country will be generated by RES and Biofuels, by 2040, 65%-82%, and by 2050 this proportion will reach 80%-90%. Also, Conventional Energy Sources are expected to be less important as time passes. In contrast, all Green Energy Sources will be improved drastically, being way more competitive in terms of production costs than Fossil Fuel Sources, indeed, Onshore Wind will become the single largest energy source, generating 31%-65% of power in the country, followed by Solar (13%-28%). An approach to Energy Planning in Germany-Energy Transition towards a low-carbon economy Resumen Este Trabajo de Fin de Grado tiene como objetivos definir la situación actual del sector energético alemán, su evolución a lo largo del tiempo, comparar sus características con el sector energético de la Unión Europea y estimar cómo será el sector energético nacional en las próximas décadas, de acuerdo con el Modelo de optimización de carteras de Markowitz. El estudio contextualiza las características actuales del Sector Energético Alemán, tales como: composición de sus mixes energéticos (tanto mix de energía primaria como mix eléctrico), demanda energética, consumidores energéticos alemanes, infraestructura y contaminación, comparando siempre estas variables con el Sector Energético de la Unión Europea. Para comprender el comportamiento de las variables anteriormente mencionadas a lo largo del tiempo, se desarrolló el marco regulatorio a nivel nacional y europeo, destacando como estas directrices y otros eventos relevantes, como el actual brote de SARS-CoV-2, definirán la Transición Energética Alemana. Mediante el uso de la Teoría Moderna de Cartera y aplicando las restricciones apropiadas, se pronosticó la composición del mix eléctrico alemán para los años 2030, 2040 y 2050, y las implicaciones que esto tiene en términos de precios de la electricidad, contaminación y salud: en 2030, el 65% de la electricidad producida en el país será generada por fuentes de energía renovables y biocombustibles, para 2040, el 65%-82%, y para 2050 esta proporción alcanzará el 80%-90%. Además, se espera que las fuentes de energía convencionales sean menos importantes a medida que pase el tiempo. Por el contrario, las energías verdes se verán mejoradas drásticamente, siendo más competitivas en términos de costo de producción que las fósiles, de hecho, la eólica se convertirá en la mayor fuente eléctrica, generando el 31%-65% de la electricidad, seguida por la Solar (13%-28%). Palabras clave: Sector energético alemán; modelo de optimización de carteras de Markowitz; mix de energía primaria mix eléctrico; Teoría Moderna de Carteras; transición energética alemana; fuentes de energía renovables.
... Il est possible néanmoins de traduire ces évaluations en termes de morbidité et de mortalité, bien qu'il y ait des limites à l'exercice en raison de la connaissance imparfaite que l'on a des effets délétères sur la santé en fonction de l'âge et de l'état de santé des populations affectées. Une évaluation pour l'Europe a été proposée en 2007 (Markandya et Wilkinson, 2007). Exprimée en mortalité ou morbidité par TWh produit, cette évaluation permet de classer sans ambiguïté les ordres de grandeur des effets occasionnés. ...
... Prenant cette perspective en considération, il est possible, sans verser dans le paradoxe, de calculer le nombre de vies épargnées par le recours à la filière nucléaire par rapport aux combustibles fossiles (Kharetcha et Hansen, 2013) ! En prenant comme base les évaluations de Markandya (Markandya et Wilkinson, 2007), avec 20 000 TWh produits dans le monde en 2008 et 41 % de cette énergie provenant du charbon, ce sont 200 000 décès par an qui pourraient être évités. ...
L’évaluation du risque sanitaire consécutif à l’exposition de l’homme à des doses de rayonnements ionisants inférieures à 100-200 mSv est à l’origine de controverses, en particulier au moment des choix en matière de transition énergétique. Ni les données épidémiologiques, ni les données expérimentales ne permettent de préciser la forme de la relation dose-effet à partir de l’origine. Les résultats récemment acquis par le suivi prolongé d’enfants et de jeunes adultes, après examens radiologiques de tomographie computationnelle (CT Scans), montrent cependant que des doses de 50 à 60 mGy délivrées à fort débit sont à l’origine d’un excès de différentes tumeurs, en particulier leucémies et cancers du cerveau. À partir des données épidémiologiques et expérimentales, cet article examine la plausibilité de la relation linéaire sans seuil utilisée pour la radioprotection pour fixer les limites d’exposition du public et des professionnels. Cette plausibilité est faible ; néanmoins, l’utilisation de la relation linéaire sans seuil permet de situer l’ordre de grandeur du risque engendré par le développement de l’énergie nucléaire civile comme source d’énergie. Il apparaît ainsi de manière très évidente que cette ressource est économe du point de vue des conséquences sanitaires qui en découlent, en particulier par rapport à l’utilisation des combustibles fossiles et de la biomasse.
... Nuclear fission-based reactor could generate sustainable and clean energy with a relatively high energy production. The fast development in the past decades has made nuclear fission energy supply technique mature, which largely reduces the safety risk and the cost of energy production [5]. In some developed countries, nuclear fission energy has already become one of the most important energy sources, such as France (69.9%), ...
... During a neon seeding rate scan the radiation power loss increases primarily in the high temperature region (around 20eV, see figure 2.9) such that the heat flux can be effectively reduced by neon impurity radiation before entering the recycling region (see figure 5.5). Although the ionisation and recombination (see figure 5.7(b)) do not become more intensive at higher seeding rates, neon impurity radiation (see figure 5.9(b)) is powerful enough to achieve rollover of the target flux and even achieve a deeper detachment phase. The different energy costs of ionisation in the two detachment regimes may be the main reason that causes the different minimum target temperature in the two detachment regimes. ...
Divertor detachment is a promising method to reduce heat loading and erosion in tokamak devices or even in future magnetic fusion reactors. In this thesis, two detachment regimes (increasing upstream density and seeding impurity) leading to the decrease of the divertor ion flux is numerically studied through modelling the super-X divertor in MAST-U like conditions. This thesis builds on previous work using the original SD1D modules of BOUT++, which is established to simulate parallel transport process from upstream to the target. We implement an upgrade in SD1D module by adding molecule-plasma interactions and impurity seeding in order to making simulations more self-consistent. To understand the role of molecules in density ramp detachment process, comparisons are made between the cases with different recycling conditions. It is found that if the recycling in divertor is more likely to produce neutral molecule, the roll-over of ion flux at the target occurs at a higher upstream density and a lower target temperature. We also find that molecule-plasma interactions are as crucial as atom-plasma interactions during divertor detachment, both of which account for the main plasma momentum loss. Molecule-plasma interactions can even cause a strong rise of H_alpha signal in the detachment process, which agrees with the measurement on other devices (e.g TCV tokamak). The divertor detachment induced by seeding impurity (e.g. neon) is simulated in order to understand the difference between the two detachment regimes. It is found that increasing the puffing rate of neon impurity cannot quickly reduce the target temperature, thus the density of molecule species is small during detachment due to the high molecule dissociation rate, while atom-plasma interactions become dominant and account for the most of plasma momentum loss. Different from the density ramp induced detachment, we cannot find the strong rise of H_alpha signal in this case.
... It is to be hoped that nuclear fission will be replaced in the future by fusion, which is intrinsically safer. Fusion should offer a source of safe, clean power generation with a plentiful supply of raw materials [38][39][40]. The worldwide use of nuclear energy must be managed by a powerful international executive based in most developed parts of the world. ...
https://hal.science/hal-04853904
... Exhaust emissions stem from the combustion process in the internal combustion engine (ICE), while non-exhaust emissions arise from the vehicle's moving parts. WtT emissions, which vary based on the energy source, predominantly include pollutants found in the exhaust emission category, which have been studied here [18]. The focus of this work is on WtW. ...
The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the environmental impact of diesel and electric buses, with a focus on pollutant emissions along a mixed urban–rural route in small urban settings. Utilizing a detailed simulation model, this research compares emissions from a diesel bus and an electric bus on a specific route in a small town in central Italy. Key findings reveal that electric buses significantly reduce local exhaust emissions but are not entirely emission-free, considering the full life cycle, including electricity generation. The Well-to-Wheel analysis shows lower CO2 emissions for the electric bus compared with the diesel bus, with a substantial part of the emissions occurring at power generation facilities. Non-exhaust emissions, especially Total Suspended Particles, are similar for both bus types. This study highlights the advantages of adopting electric buses in urban areas to decrease local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. However, it also underscores the importance of cleaner electricity generation methods to fully leverage the environmental benefits of electric vehicles. The findings provide valuable insights for decision makers and urban planners in developing sustainable urban transportation systems.
... It is to be hoped that nuclear fission will be replaced in the future by fusion, which is intrinsically safer. Fusion should offer a source of safe, clean power generation with a plentiful supply of raw materials [38][39][40]. Durable peace and international cooperation are needed for this and other large-scale projects, but increasing population densities lead to complexity and reduced stability. Notwithstanding the prospects of cheaper and cleaner energy, there may be no alternative to a major fall in regional and global populations. ...
Environmental degradation is one of the most threatening global challenges currently faced by humankind. Despite generally decreasing birth rates, the global population continues increasing in absolute terms, which is an unsustainable trajectory. Efficient solutions would require an acceptance of new ethical principles, in particular, that no population group may obtain advantages because of a faster growth. In countries with sufficient food and water resources, the birth rate may be higher than in regions where people are consuming desalinated water and foodstuff acquired through foreign aid. In the past, overpopulation has been reduced by wars, epidemics and starvation. Today, the possibility exists of applying humane, scientifically based methods, consciously choosing between birth rate restriction and mortality rise. Unlike preventable shortening of life expectancy, birth control is ethically neutral. International tensions are among reasons to boost childbearing. In conditions of durable peace and mutual trust, large projects could be introduced to improve the quality of life: irrigation systems, nuclear and other energy sources as an alternative to fossil fuels. Such projects would create many jobs and solve other impending problems.
... Nuclear power can be used for water desalination in arid regions; it has returned to the agenda because of increasing global energy demands and declining fossil fuel reserves. Nuclear power plants (NPPs) emit virtually no greenhouse gases compared to coal, oil or natural gas (Markandya and Wilkinson 2007). Hopefully, nuclear fission will be replaced in the future by fusion, which is intrinsically safer. ...
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... It is also worth mentioning that the emissions from coal combustion have not been taken into account in these scenarios, as we are only addressing the partial LCA of the autumn tree leaves. The inclusion of coal combustion in the analysis will indeed shift the net GHG emissions to much higher levels, as coal is the most polluting feedstock used in energy production (Markandya and Wilkinson, 2007). In this regard, as coal firing is ending in Germany, it is recommended that co-firing of coal with leaves only be carried out in existing plants so that GHG emissions can be reduced while taking advantage of the maximum amount of energy inherent in the leaves. ...
Autumn tree leaves collect as waste on many city streets every year. In the city of Berlin, they are usually collected and transported for composting as their final treatment, which emits greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere. This study assesses alternative end uses of autumn tree leaves in order explore the potential of reducing GHG emissions while producing electric energy from residual biomass. It uses a combination of partial life-cycle assessments and net present value (NPV) to explore the different net GHG emissions and economic benefits of using autumn tree leaves for the following scenarios: anaerobic digestion (biogas), gasification, and co-firing. Assuming the use of 36,000 tonnes of leaves per year, co-firing in existing power plants shows the highest NPV, of between 10.3 million and 12.1 million euros for a 10-year lifetime, in line with the phase-out of coal combustion in Germany. It also results in the lowest net GHG emissions, with savings of between 252,000 and 144,000 tonnes of CO2eq. Gasification in new plants resulted in similar NPVs, estimated at between 9.80 and 9.86 million euros over a 20-year investment horizon, but lower emissions savings of 178,000 to 127,000 tonnes of CO2eq. Biogas production showed high emissions savings of 204,000 to 203,000 tonnes of CO2eq, but a much lower NPV of between 2.3 and 2.5 million euros. Composting was the only scenario with positive net GHG emissions. The amount of energy retrieved from the conversion technologies and the electrical tariff applied were the main drivers of these results. Other aspects that can shape the results include the availability of infrastructure and transport distances. The results are highly sensitive in both cases to the dryness of the leaves, while electricity tariffs influenced the economic performance considerably.
... Keeping the updated cost details of fuel and electricity, the intensity of market situation is calculated by the researcher with following aspects like; among all regions, among bordering regions, and between the regions enclosed by the identical grid group. Markandya et al. [6] technically observed the diversified fuelling techniques like nuclear, fossil fuel, most renewable energy paths e.g. solar, wind etc for the generation of electricity and its impact on physical life sustenance. ...
We need energy for transportation, homes, and industry. Energy can be obtained from renewable and non-renewable sources. Non renewable energy sources pollute the air, while renewable energy sources are environment-friendly. Electricity generation from non-convective sources is of great benefit to society. Power generation from solar energy, wind, municipal waste, and energy from one form to another are different types of non-conventional power sources. India is the fourth largest renewable energy country in the world. Recently, the Prime Minister of our country announced the development of renewable energy power plants and advised further exploration of the concept of free energy to strengthen renewable energy entrepreneurs. He also announced incentives from the Opportunity Energy Sector and the Free Energy Centre. concept. Currently, many countries are using technology to develop energy. In this study, we developed a model that converts pressure energy into electricity. Pressure energy is generated by the movement of people and vehicles. This pressure energy is converted into electricity through several engineered paths and systems. This study presents details of the designed system and its working principle. The system we developed works with a lever and gear mechanism and offers a new path to the sustainable development of clean energy harvesting. Walking naturally on a path that gathers energy without disturbing the body is the primary reason for the stability of this engineered system.
... Most recently, the classification of gas-fired and nuclear power plants as "green" technologies [4] according to the EU taxonomy for sustainable activities [5] has caused discussion in this context. The electricity sector is of particular relevance to sustainability considerations, as it is not only the sector with the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions [6] but also with the largest impact on human health [7,8]. The measures and pathways for achieving these sustainability goals have not yet been specified. ...
Electricity generation in Europe is undergoing a fundamental change. The aim is to increase sustainability by reducing emissions. Each country has a different electricity mix, and there is no established method for measuring environmental impacts of electricity production with a single monetary indicator, in a uniform manner, and with country-specific data. To address this gap, a model that measures the costs of 19 environmental externalities (usually, types of emissions) has been developed. Using country-specific technologies, electricity mixes, and external cost rates, the development of external costs of generating electricity in 27 European countries between 2010 and 2030 is assessed and analyzed. The simulation results show that the external costs vary heavily between 2.1 and 22.4 euro cents per kWh in this period. Despite the initiated transformation of the energy systems in many EU countries, external costs per kWh are decreasing in only eight of them. This fact underlines the need for a drastic change in national energy strategies. Overall, the results show that more far-reaching policy measures are needed in order to significantly reduce the external costs of the energy sector in Europe. The article raises the level of granularity of research on the external costs of electricity in Europe by combining extensive country-specific emission data and country-specific external cost rates.
... Health risks and environmental damage are maximal for coal and oil, lower for natural gas and much lower for the nuclear energy. The same ranking applies to the greenhouse gas emissions [5,6]. Nuclear power is a large-scale sustainable energy source; it is devoid of unpredictability of wind and solar energy, uses fuels with high energy density, which facilitates transportation. ...
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... Coal-fired power plants pollute the air with a combination of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and methane) [86], particulate matter, nitrogen and sulfur oxides, and heavy metals such as mercury [87][88][89]. The resultant poor air quality causes mortality and morbidity effects on respiratory, cardiovascular, urinary, nervous, and digestive systems [90][91][92][93]. In this way, the coal industry kills people by polluting the air that they breathe [94,95]. ...
When attempting to quantify future harms caused by carbon emissions and to set appropriate energy policies, it has been argued that the most important metric is the number of human deaths caused by climate change. Several studies have attempted to overcome the uncertainties associated with such forecasting. In this article, approaches to estimating future human deaths tolls from climate change are compared and synthesized, and implications for energy policy are considered. Several studies are consistent with the “1000-ton rule,” according to which a future person is killed every time 1000 tons of fossil carbon are burned (order-of-magnitude estimate). If warming reaches or exceeds 2°C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming. Such mass manslaughter is clearly unacceptable. On this basis, relatively aggressive energy policies are summarized that would enable immediate and substantive decreases to carbon emissions. The limitations to such calculations are outlined and future work is recommended to accelerate the decarbonization of the global economy while minimizing the number of sacrificed human lives.
... Coal-fired power plants pollute the air with a combination of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and methane) [94], particulate matter, nitrogen and sulfur oxides, and heavy metals such as mercury [95][96][97]. The resultant poor air quality causes mortality and morbidity effects on respiratory, cardiovascular, urinary, nervous, and digestive systems [98][99][100][101]. In this way, the coal industry kills people by polluting the air that they breathe [102,103]. ...
When attempting to quantify future harms caused by carbon emissions and to set appropriate energy policies, it has been argued that the most important metric is the number of human deaths caused by climate change. Several studies have attempted to overcome the uncertainties associated with such forecasting. In this article, approaches to estimating future human death tolls from climate change relevant at any scale or location are compared and synthesized, and implications for energy policy are considered. Several studies are consistent with the “1000-ton rule,” according to which a future person is killed every time 1000 tons of fossil carbon are burned (order-of-magnitude estimate). If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming, which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter. On this basis, relatively aggressive energy policies are summarized that would enable immediate and substantive decreases in carbon emissions. The limitations to such calculations are outlined and future work is recommended to accelerate the decarbonization of the global economy while minimizing the number of sacrificed human lives.
... Unresolved issues associated with the disposal of nuclear waste are potentially a more significant occupational and environmental concern; these may be resolved through the commercial development of nuclear fusion. Nuclear fusion, which is a promising energy source, uses radioactive materials with half-lives substantially less than those for fission, and the risk of a major accident is substantially less (Markandya and Wilkinson 2007;Ball 2022). ...
Workers, particularly outdoor workers, are among the populations most disproportionately affected by climate-related hazards. However, scientific research and control actions to comprehensively address these hazards are notably absent. To assess this absence, a seven-category framework was developed in 2009 to characterize the scientific literature published from 1988 through 2008. Using this framework, a second assessment examined the literature published through 2014, and the current one examines literature from 2014 through 2021. The objectives were to present literature that updates the framework and related topics and increases awareness of the role of climate change in occupational safety and health. In general, there is substantial literature on worker hazards related to ambient temperatures, biological hazards, and extreme weather but less on air pollution, ultraviolet radiation, industrial transitions, and the built environment. There is growing literature on mental health and health equity issues related to climate change, but much more research is needed. The socioeconomic impacts of climate change also require more research. This study illustrates that workers are experiencing increased morbidity and mortality related to climate change. In all areas of climate-related worker risk, including geoengineering, research is needed on the causality and prevalence of hazards, along with surveillance to identify, and interventions for hazard prevention and control.
... Furthermore, deteriorating air quality on the local and global scales is a serious problem for human health, as well. It is foreseen that the number of people who lost their lives due to diseases caused by air pollution is approximately 6.5 million on an annual basis [30,31]. All these have led to great concerns by mankind in recent years about energy production methods. ...
In today’s world, most countries including Türkiye have met their electricity demand at a dominant rate by burning fossil-based fuels in thermal power plants. However, fossil-fuel reserves have been rapidly depleted, resulting in high volatility in these fuels’ markets, as well as alarming environmental, and economic problems for the governments. In recent years, many governments have started to face these problems and have rapidly transitioned to renewable and alternative carbon-free energy sources in their electricity production variety. However, these belated steps have failed to mitigate the increment in global greenhouse gas emissions against the rapid growth of population and energy demand. In recent years, Türkiye has put a noteworthy challenge to mitigate its dominant use of fossil fuels, reducing its energy dependence, sustaining its economic development, and mitigating the carbon footprint. From this point of view, it is witnessed that many power plants have been established, many of them are currently under construction, especially to produce more electricity in a sustainable way. Accordingly, the present study aims to comprehensively discuss Türkiye’s energy production policy, energy potential and reserves, challenges, future opportunities, and the impacts of the energy sector on the economic and environmental issues for the country. In this framework, it is well-noticed that the country’s future energy production policy has been reasonably changed in order to achieve positive economic and environmental outcomes in the medium and long term.
... The safety record of natural gas is among the best of any energy source per terawatt hour of electricity generated. 11,12 Safety records are lifecycle measurements, accounting for extraction, transportation, use, and end use impacts. 13 In addition to rare accidents and injuries, burning Aii.org | Alliance for Innovation and Infrastructure 4 natural gas produces emissions, which impact respiratory health outcomes. ...
America’s energy security must be balanced with environmental stewardship while accounting for the needs and impacts of current and future generations. While energy policy is a function of both market dynamics and public policy, it is time for industry leaders and corporations to take the lead in deploying a new model for robust energy that ensures vulnerable populations have access to reliable, low-cost power while minimizing the energy sector’s environmental footprint.
With a simple three-pronged model, energy producers, the transportation industry, and even the broader corporate world can help revitalize American energy independence and propel the U.S. to be the unambiguous leader in climate solutions. This sustainable model incorporates natural gas, pipelines, and carbon offsets.
Many countries, including the United Kingdom, have committed to reaching “net zero” emissions by 2050. To meet this challenge requires urgent deployment of low-carbon energy-generating technologies, not just for electricity generation but also other sectors, including transportation and heating. However, this will only be successful if the other two pillars of sustainability (social and economic impacts) are balanced with the environmental drivers. All energy-generation technologies have benefits and drawbacks, and these must be objectively and fairly assessed using a “level playing field” approach. Nuclear energy has benefits that are complementary to renewables and thus can play a valuable role in delivering large amounts of low-carbon energy globally. However, critics of nuclear energy raise concerns related to safety (and security), radioactive waste management, and economics that have challenged its acceptance as a sustainable energy source in some quarters. Nevertheless, objective consideration of sustainability in global energy needs and the different generating technologies clearly indicate a valuable role for nuclear energy in a sustainable and low-carbon future. It is concluded that nuclear energy should be recognised as “sustainable”, and the analysis shows that energy portfolios incorporating nuclear provide the most sustainable system overall.
Details are in the book: The Overestimation of Medical Consequences of Low-Dose Exposure to Ionizing Radiation https://www.cambridgescholars.com/product/978-1-5275-5100-8
Graphene, a remarkable two-dimensional material, has garnered significant attention in recent years for its exceptional properties and diverse applications. Among its many potential applications, Graphene-based photocatalytic disinfection has emerged as a promising approach for sustainable and efficient pathogen inactivation. This chapter book provides a comprehensive overview of the utilization of Graphene in photocatalytic disinfection processes, focusing on its synthesis, modification, and application in the context of pathogen control. The chapter book begins with an introduction to the fundamental concepts of photocatalytic disinfection and the unique properties of graphene that make it a suitable platform for such applications. It discusses the various synthesis methods for graphene and graphene-based composites, highlighting their impacts on photocatalytic activity. The book explores the different strategies employed to enhance the photocatalytic efficiency of Graphene such as incorporating metal nanoparticles, semiconductor materials, or organic sensitizers onto Graphene surfaces, heteroatom doping, surface engineering, and morphology engineering. A significant portion of the chapter book is dedicated to the detailed investigation of the disinfection mechanisms associated with Graphene-based photocatalysts. It delves into the interactions between Graphene-based materials and pathogenic microorganisms, elucidating the roles of reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation and physical damage in microbial inactivation. The chapter also addresses the challenges and considerations specific to Graphene-based photocatalytic disinfection, including stability, scalability, selectivity, and environmental impact. The practical application of Graphene-based photocatalytic disinfection systems is a central theme throughout the chapter book. It explores case studies and experimental approaches that demonstrate the effectiveness of graphene-based materials for pathogen control in various settings, including water treatment, air purification, and surface disinfection. Moreover, the book discusses the potential integration of Graphene-based photocatalysts into existing disinfection technologies, highlighting their compatibility and synergistic effects. To ensure a holistic perspective, the chapter book also addresses safety considerations and environmental implications associated with graphene-based photocatalytic disinfection. It examines the fate and potential risks associated with the release of graphene-based nanomaterials and discusses proper disposal methods and risk assessment strategies. Finally, this chapter book provides a comprehensive and interdisciplinary exploration of graphene-based photocatalytic disinfection, encompassing the synthesis, modification, disinfection mechanisms, practical applications, and safety considerations. It serves as a valuable resource for researchers, engineers, and practitioners interested in harnessing the power of graphene for sustainable and efficient pathogen inactivation, with the ultimate goal of improving public health and environmental well-being.
Energy production and consumption are essential to the development of industrial societies. It has been shown that there is a strong correlation between the increase in life expectancy and the amount of energy per capita, but that this effect reaches a plateau at a value of less than a quarter of that of current Western societies.
In addition to energy consumption, the interaction between energy and health is dominated by the effects of environmental pollution.
The purpose of this chapter is to show the pattern of use and the typologies of energy sources relied on by settlement dwellers of selected communities in Bloemfontein. The chapter explores the coping strategies used by settlement dwellers in areas with low-income households that have difficulties of accessing energy in light of loadshedding in Bloemfontein. The chapter uses the lens of Sustainable Development Goals 7 and 12 to explore low-income energy consumers of settlements in Bloemfontein. The study engaged key informant interviews, focus group discussions, observations and a survey involving some 160 respondents randomly selected in the Phomolong, Bochabela, Phase 2, and Turflaagte informal neighbourhoods. The major issues emanating from the ground is that most households depend on unclean energy sources like paraffin, wood, and petroleum gas. The households argue that the cost of these unclean energy sources continue to escalate despite government regulation on the commodities and limited access to healthcare facilities. The reason is the involvement of middlemen who buy the commodity at a very low cost and then sell it at an exorbitant level to them. Another observation is the wide presence of gadgets (like satellite television sets) within the informal settlement; this fashionable trend is the emulation by the low-income earners living like the affluent people. Generally, livelihoods strategies in informal settlements revolve around the commoditization of electricity and related products as people seek to charge their cell phones, among other gadgets. The successful attainment of Sustainable Development Goals is challenged mainly by the marginalisation and powerlessness of informal settlement dwellers.
Some philosophers and machine learning experts have speculated that superintelligent Artificial Intelligences (AIs), if and when they arrive on the scene, will wrestle away power from humans, with potentially catastrophic consequences. Dan Hendrycks has recently buttressed such worries by arguing that AI systems will undergo evolution by natural selection, which will endow them with instinctive drives for self-preservation, dominance and resource accumulation that are typical of evolved creatures. In this paper, we argue that this argument is not compelling as it stands. Evolutionary processes, as we point out, can be more or less Darwinian along a number of dimensions. Making use of Peter Godfrey-Smith’s framework of Darwinian spaces, we argue that the more evolution is top-down, directed and driven by intelligent agency, the less paradigmatically Darwinian it becomes. We then apply the concept of “domestication” to AI evolution, which, although theoretically satisfying the minimal definition of natural selection, is channeled through the minds of fore-sighted and intelligent agents, based on selection criteria desirable to them (which could be traits like docility, obedience and non-aggression). In the presence of such intelligent planning, it is not clear that selection of AIs, even selection in a competitive and ruthless market environment, will end up favoring “selfish” traits. In the end, however, we do agree with Hendrycks’ conditionally: If superintelligent AIs end up “going feral” and competing in a truly Darwinian fashion, reproducing autonomously and without human supervision, this could pose a grave danger to human societies.
Artisanal mining worldwide significantly contributes to the degradation of ecosystems vital for sustaining diverse habitats and wildlife. These ecosystems, including mangrove forests, lowland rainforests, and freshwater swamp forests, are increasingly threatened by deforestation, overhunting, bush burning, and intensive agriculture. In particular, artisanal crude oil processing, which is widespread in Nigeria’s Niger Delta, leads to extensive environmental damage and exposure to airborne chemicals from crude oil. Artisanal miners, who often reside in these areas, typically use essential equipment for mining, despite the considerable occupational and environmental health hazards posed to both biodiversity and the environment. While artisanal refining provides socioeconomic benefits like job creation, its harmful impact on air quality and public health is a significant concern. This chapter highlights the elevated levels of particulate matter and toxic gases, including sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and carbon monoxide, released during artisanal mining operations, contributing to air pollution. Inhalation of these pollutants can cause various respiratory issues, such as chest tightness, coughing with thick sputum, persistent nasal congestion, wheezing, and chest pain that worsens with deep breathing. Additionally, exposure to these pollutants may lead to congenital disabilities and discomfort in the sensory organs. Addressing the risks associated with traditional crude oil refining methods in the Niger Delta is crucial. This requires granting licenses to artisanal crude oil refiners, enforcing Nigerian environmental and petroleum regulations to oversee their activities, and gradually raising public awareness about the dangers of crude oil refining. Mitigating these risks is essential for protecting the region’s environment and public health. Meaningful progress in preventing environmental degradation and maintaining public health can only be achieved through the active involvement of communities, leveraging their resources and knowledge.
The concept of smart cities in India was developed by the Government of India in June 2015 by the Honourable Prime Minister Shri Narendra Damodardas Modi. The basic aim of such a concept was to develop the country, to improve the lifestyle of individuals, and to develop the economic part of the country. The smartness of a city is identified by some parameters including technology-based manufacturing method, pollution control initiative, new energy harvesting methods, and initiative towards new job creation for the young masses by using available resources. Each year, the urban department of the Government of India announces smart city ranking by taking the data submitted by state governments. The mission of smart cities will be fulfilled if proper judgement, development, designing, and implementation happen; 45–50% of the total population of a state lives in urban areas in which maximum are common people. The lifestyle of these peoples should be cared for a smart city. In this work, some technology-based methods towards new energy creation and pollution control have been presented. A new way of energy harvesting by developing a model, which works by converting pressure energy to electric energy, and a secondary fuel concept towards zero pollution have been described in this work. Both of these models are environmentally friendly. The design and development costs for these models are very less and also easy to operate. These methods are designed to provide benefit towards the development of smart cities and to improve the lifestyle of common people in urban areas.
The quantification and prediction of particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the air are essential due to their negative impacts on human health and the environment. This study quantified PM concentrations and associated health effects at four natural gas-based power plants in Bangladesh. The measurement of PM2.5 and PM10 using the respirable dust samplers APS-113NL and APS-113BL, respectively from the year of 2015 to 2021 revealed that the concentration of both types of particles fluctuated over the years. The highest recorded levels of particles were in 2019, with PM2.5 at 126 µg/m3 and PM10 at 283 µg/m3 and the lowest recorded levels of particles were in 2017, with PM2.5 at 76.3 µg/m3 and PM10 at 203.3 µg/m3. In 2021, PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations were 88.5 and 225 µg/m3, respectively, lower than in the past two years. Statistical modeling assessed atmospheric contaminants analyzed time series data, and projected air quality. ARIMA, ETS, and ANN modeling methods have been used to predict the monthly average of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations. RMSE, MAPE, MASE, and MAE have been utilized for model orders, time series analysis, and forecasting validation. There is a significant variation between the forecasting models and forecasts for average PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations in natural gas-fired power plants from 2022 to 2024. This study also conducted a face-to-face interview with over 100 employees using a structured questionnaire to assess the health effects they are facing due to poor air quality in the power generation complex and found that 2 and 13 % of employees had respiratory and skin issues, respectively. Nonetheless, regular health checks, air filtration, and renewable energy consumption may benefit residents and the environment.
The published article: https://www.avensonline.org/wp-content/uploads/JES-2471-4879-10-0037.pdf
La production et la consommation d’énergie sont indispensables au développement des sociétés industrielles. On montre qu’il existe dans le monde une corrélation forte entre l’augmentation de l’espérance de vie des citoyens et la quantité d’énergie par habitant, mais que cet effet atteint un plateau à partir d’une valeur inférieure au quart de celles propres aux sociétés occidentales actuelles. Au-delà de cette consommation d’énergie, ce sont des effets liés à la pollution du milieu qui dominent les interactions entre énergie et santé.
Biogenic methane in subsurface coal seam environments is produced by diverse consortia of microbes. Although this methane is useful for global energy security, it remains unclear which microbes can liberate carbon from the coal. Most of this carbon is relatively resistant to biodegradation, as it is contained within aromatic rings. Thus, to explore for coal-degrading taxa in the subsurface, this study reconstructed relevant metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) from coal seams by using a key genomic marker for the anaerobic degradation of monoaromatic compounds as a guide: the benzoyl-CoA reductase gene (bcrABCD). Three MAGs were identified with this genetic potential. The first represented a novel taxon from the Krumholzibacteriota phylum, which this study is the first to describe. This Krumholzibacteriota MAG contained a full set of genes for benzoyl-CoA dearomatization, in addition to other genes for anaerobic catabolism of monoaromatics. Analysis of Krumholzibacteriota MAGs from other environments revealed that this genetic potential may be common, and thus, Krumholzibacteriota may be important organisms for the liberation of recalcitrant carbon in a broad range of environments. Moreover, the assembly and characterization of two Syntrophorhabdus aromaticivorans MAGs from different continents and a Syntrophaceae sp. MAG implicate the Deltaproteobacteria class in coal seam monoaromatic degradation. Each of these taxa are potential rate-limiting organisms for subsurface coal-to-methane biodegradation. Their description here provides some understanding of their function within the coal seam microbiome and will help inform future efforts in coal bed methane stimulation, anoxic bioremediation of organic pollutants, and assessments of anoxic, subsurface carbon cycling and emissions.
IMPORTANCE
Subsurface coal seams are highly anoxic, oligotrophic environments, where the main source of carbon is “locked away” within aromatic rings. Despite these challenges, many coal seams accumulate biogenic methane, implying that the coal seam microbiome is “unlocking” this carbon source in situ. For over two decades, researchers have endeavored to understand which organisms perform these processes. This study provides the first descriptions of organisms with this genetic potential from the coal seam environment. Here, we report metagenomic insights into carbon liberation from aromatic molecules and the degradation pathways involved and describe a Krumholzibacteriota, two Syntrophorhabdus aromaticivorans, and a Syntrophaceae MAG that contain this genetic potential. This is also the first time that the Krumholzibacteriota phylum has been implicated in anaerobic dearomatization of aromatic hydrocarbons. This potential is identified here in numerous MAGs from other terrestrial and marine subsurface habitats, implicating the Krumholzibacteriota in carbon-cycling processes across a broad range of environments.
Nuclear power generation constitutes a significant component of the energy infrastructure within the United States. The dry cask storage system canister, used for storing highly radioactive spent fuel, demands vigilant structural health monitoring. This paper explores the feasibility of monitoring of stress corrosion cracking in large-scale dry cask storage system canisters using acoustic emission sensors. In this paper, a 304H stainless steel plate, reflecting a typical canister, was subjected to conditions inducing stress corrosion cracking by exposure to a potassium tetrathionate solution and tensile stresses. Analysis of the captured acoustic emission signals showed that the sensors were able to detect this corrosion even at considerable distances from the cracks. Moreover, a finite element model was designed to simulate the acoustic emission signals, thus providing a preliminary understanding of the signal profiles at different sensor locations and potentially providing guidance on the optimal placement of the sensors during field monitoring.
The Book is available at: https://novapublishers.com/shop/the-conflict-in-ukraine-psychopathology-and-social-aspects/
The Book review in English: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/374698199_Book_Review_The_Conflict_in_Ukraine_Nova_Science_Publishers_2023
Electrochemical methods to produce hydrogen require electrical energy to facilitate the reaction. Green hydrogen can be produced electrochemically if the electrical energy is obtained from processes that benefit the environment, such as wind solar tidal energy, etc. Several electrochemical methods can be used to generate hydrogen, of which water electrolysis is the best known. Other electrochemical processes also have the potential to produce hydrogen, however, an important aspect of the production of green hydrogen from electrical energy is the clean technology of using electrical energy to produce hydrogen from low-value feedstocks.
The current concern for power is justifiable in light of both the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the world’s concern over climate change and environmental conservation. The objective of this paper is to quantify changes in Romania’s electricity productions and imports, moreover, to identify and classify the types of sponsorship activities of Romanian electricity companies. In this paper, based on data from Eurostat and BP we analyze the import of electricity in Romania between 2011 and 2020, but also the electricity generation from all sources between 1989 and 2021. We also did an analysis of contribution for improving the life of local communities, of few important Romanian companies from the electricity area: Hidroelectrica, Nuclearelectrica and Transelectrica based on their sustainability reports for the year 2021. During the communist period in Romania, between 1985 and 1989, there was an increase of electricity produced, but after the communism, more precisely after the year 1989 there was a huge decrease, more specifically from 1989 to 2021 decreased by 22%, while imports of electricity increased by 2.42 times from 2011 to 2020. From the sustainability reports of the companies analyzed results that the Romanian electricity companies offer a high support to the local communities especially for health area. This paper is unique because it’s the first paper where the sponsorship of the Romanian electricity companies was analyzed from a Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) perspective.
Natural gas hydrates are unconventional abundant hydrocarbon energy resources that can guarantee energy sustainability with little environmental impact. The solid nature of the resource, distinct thermodynamic characteristics, and accumulations at shallow depths make the existing conventional production techniques unviable. Among all the currently explored production techniques, the hydrate-based carbon capture and sequestration (HBCCS) technique is expected to improve production, proven to be geomechanically safer, and conceptualized to be environmentally friendly. In this carbon-neutral production concept, carbon emissions are effectively sequestered for the long-term. This review presents a comprehensive overview and perspective of the CO2 exchange-based approach to extract methane (CH4) from naturally occurring gas hydrate reserves, emphasizes its prospect as a suitable alternative according to the current energy demands and climate concerns, establishes its environmental and production challenges, and demonstrates the recent developments. This review focuses on the production aspect and discusses the mechanism of the exchange process, experimental and modeling studies, various in situ production tests using different techniques on multiple sediments, and production challenges associated with the exchange process. The aspects of geomechanics and possibilities of fracturing in hydrate reservoirs are also discussed elaborately. A suitable and effective technique is yet to be established to produce natural gas commercially by addressing the existing challenges like sand production, seafloor stability concerns, marine ecosystem problems, low production rate, uncontrolled dissociation, water production, etc. Although the CO2 exchange-based method is thermodynamically favorable, rapid crystallization of CO2 restricts mass transfer and prevents continuous exchange. The exchange process is also influenced by heat, salinity, residual water saturation, exchange gas composition, injection phase, injection pressure, sediment properties, etc. There is a need to study the CO2–CH4 exchange process at a fundamental level and at a larger scale, to understand its intricacies. In tandem with comprehensively discussing the subject, this review has listed the issues that require tenable solutions, which shall be helpful to readers who wish to work on production from CH4 hydrates using the CO2 exchange process. Methane hydrates shall be one of the strategic energy sources to meet our growing energy requirements for a sustainable future.
The current trends in development and installation of solar and wind energy poses certain challenges over the stability of the future electricity grids. New regulations or energy storage systems will be essential to enable this large renewable penetration.
In the present paper, a zero-emissions scenario composed solely of nuclear energy and renewables is proposed. The article analyzes the potential for nuclear power plants to perform the demand regulation function by coupling them with a crypto-asset mining facility, which provides a fast adaptation to the load-following requirements. The plant, operated at full power, will divert part of its energy to the mining facility when the electricity grid is saturated with renewable energy.
An integral economic assessment of the coupled system is performed. To account for the uncertainties involved, different scenarios are assessed, varying the cryptocurrency price, network hashrate, hardware capabilities and lifespan. A profitability analysis is made comparing the benefits of both mining and selling energy to the grid, to the cost of producing that energy to find out if new-built plants would be positively balanced. The results show that only under circumstances of very high cryptoasset price and low network hashrate the cryptomining project would be profitable.
We explore how nuclear shut-downs in the United States could affect air pollution, climate and health with existing and alternative grid infrastructure. We develop a dispatch model to estimate emissions of CO2, NOx and SO2 from each electricity-generating unit, feeding these emissions into a chemical transport model to calculate effects on ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Our scenario of removing nuclear power results in compensation by coal, gas and oil, resulting in increases in PM2.5 and ozone that lead to an extra 5,200 annual mortalities. Changes in CO2 emissions lead to an order of magnitude higher mortalities throughout the twenty-first century, incurring US$11–180 billion of damages from 1 year of emissions. A scenario exploring simultaneous closures of nuclear and coal plants redistributes health impacts and a scenario with increased penetration of renewables reduces health impacts. Inequities in exposure to pollution are persistent across all scenarios—Black or African American people are exposed to the highest relative levels of pollution.
Nuclear fusion is widely promoted as the ultimate environmentally friendly solution to the world’s energy demands. However, the medium/long-term nuclear weapons proliferation risks from a hypothetical fusion economy are rarely considered. Using risk assessment tools, this paper undertakes a trial scoping of proliferation hazards arising from fusion energy technologies, focused on the implications of a global ‘Mature Fusion Economy’ (MFE). In the medium term, an MFE could (1) facilitate construction of large, efficient, and reliable nuclear arsenals by producing tritium and the fissile materials Plutonium-239 and Uranium-233; and (2) erode the barriers constraining nuclear weapons acquisition by facilitating the spread of nuclear knowledge, technologies, and materials. Given the potential scale of a global MFE, management via monitoring of proliferation and diplomacy could become unworkable. Therefore, policy development must include independent and comprehensive expert and informed community assessment of such fusion-enhanced risks, transparent oversight by the nuclear disarmament community, and systematic analysis of the issues raised in this paper and their implications for fusion into the very long-term future.
Human-made ecologic transformations have occurred at an unprecedented rate over the past 50 years. Prominent among them are water resource development projects. An estimated 40,000 large dams and 800,000 small dams have been built, and 272 million hectares of land are currently under irrigation worldwide. The establishment and operation of water projects has had a history of facilitating a change in the frequency and transmission dynamics of malaria, but analyses of these environmental risk factors are sparse. Here, we present a comprehensive review of studies that assessed the impact of irrigation and dam building on malaria prevalence or incidence, stratified by the World Health Organization's (WHO) sub-regions of the world, and link these studies with the latest statistics on disability adjusted life years, irrigated agriculture, and large dams. We also present estimates of the population at risk due to proximity to irrigation schemes and large dam reservoirs. In WHO sub-regions 1 and 2, which have 87.9% of the current global malaria burden, only 9.4 million people are estimated to live near large dams and irrigation schemes. In contrast, the remaining sub-regions concentrate an estimated 15.3 million people near large dams and up to 845 million near irrigation sites, while here only 12.1% of the global malaria burden is concentrated. Whether an individual water project triggers an increase in malaria transmission depends on the contextual determinants of malaria, including the epidemiologic setting, socioeconomic factors, vector management, and health seeking behavior. We conclude that in unstable malaria endemic areas, integrated malaria control measures, coupled with sound water management, are mandatory to mitigate the current burden of malaria in locations near irrigation or dam sites.
The historical development of the civil nuclear power generation industry is examined in the light of the need to meet conflicting
energy supply and environmental pressures over recent decades. It is suggested that fission (thermal and fast) reactors will
dominate the market up to the period 2010–2030, with fusion being relegated to the latter part of the 21st Century. A number
of issues affecting the use of nuclear electricity generation in Western Europe are considered, including its cost, industrial
strategic needs, and the public acceptability of nuclear power. The contribution of nuclear power stations to achieving CO2 targets aimed at relieving global warming is discussed in the context of alternative strategies for sustainable development,
including renewable energy sources and energy efficiency measures. Trends in the generation of electricity from fission nuclear
reactors are finally considered in terms of the main geopolitical groupings that make up the World in the mid-1990s. Several
recent, but somewhat conflicting, forecasts of role of nuclear power in the fuel mix up to about 2020 are reviewed. It is
argued that the only major expansion in generating capacity will take place in the Asia-Pacific Rim and not in the developing
countries generally. Nevertheless, the global nuclear industry overall will continue to be dominated by a small number of
large nuclear electricity generating countries; principally the USA, France and Japan.
Objective: To assess the impact of construction of microdams on the incidence of malaria in nearby communities in terms of possibly increasing peak incidence and prolonging transmission. Design: Four quarterly cycles of malaria incidence surveys, each taking 30 days, undertaken in eight at risk communities close to dams paired with eight control villages at similar altitudes but beyond night range of mosquitoes. Setting: Tigray region in northern Ethiopia at altitudes of 1800 to 2225 m. Subjects: About 7000 children under 10 years living in villages within 3 km of microdams and in control villages 8-10 km distant. Main outcome measures: Incidence of malaria in both communities. Results: Overall incidence of malaria for the villages close to dams was 14.0 episodes/1000 child months at risk compared with 1.9 in the control villages - a sevenfold ratio. Incidence was significantly higher in both communities at altitudes below 1900 m. Conclusions: There is a need for attention to be given to health issues in the implementation of ecological and environmental development programmes, specifically for appropriate malaria control measures to counteract the increased risks near these dams.
Recent studies have reported associations between particulate air pollution and daily mortality rates. Population-based, cross-sectional studies of metropolitan areas in the United States have also found associations between particulate air pollution and annual mortality rates, but these studies have been criticized, in part because they did not directly control for cigarette smoking and other health risks.
In this prospective cohort study, we estimated the effects of air pollution on mortality, while controlling for individual risk factors. Survival analysis, including Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling, was conducted with data from a 14-to-16-year mortality follow-up of 8111 adults in six U.S. cities.
Mortality rates were most strongly associated with cigarette smoking. After adjusting for smoking and other risk factors, we observed statistically significant and robust associations between air pollution and mortality. The adjusted mortality-rate ratio for the most polluted of the cities as compared with the least polluted was 1.26 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.08 to 1.47). Air pollution was positively associated with death from lung cancer and cardiopulmonary disease but not with death from other causes considered together. Mortality was most strongly associated with air pollution with fine particulates, including sulfates.
Although the effects of other, unmeasured risk factors cannot be excluded with certainty, these results suggest that fine-particulate air pollution, or a more complex pollution mixture associated with fine particulate matter, contributes to excess mortality in certain U.S. cities.
Recent studies have found associations between particulate air pollution and total and adult mortality. The relationship between particulate air pollution and mortality among infants has not been examined in the United States. This study evaluates the relationship between postneonatal infant mortality and particulate matter in the United States. Our study involved analysis of cohorts consisting of approximately 4 million infants born between 1989 and 1991 in states that report relevant covariates; this included 86 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States. Data from the National Center for Health Statistics-linked birth/infant death records were combined at the MSA level with measurements of particulate matter 10 microns or less (PM10) from the EPA's Aerometric Database. Infants were categorized as having high, medium, or low exposures based on tertiles of PM10. Total and cause-specific postneonatal mortality rates were examined using logistic regression to control for demographic and environmental factors. Overall postneonatal mortality rates were 3.1 among infants with low PM10 exposures, 3.5 among infants with medium PM10 exposures, and 3.7 among highly exposed infants. After adjustment for other covariates, the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for total postneonatal mortality for the high exposure versus the low exposure group was 1.10 (1.04, 1.16). In normal birth weight infants, high PM10 exposure was associated with respiratory causes [OR = 1.40, (1.05, 1.85)] and sudden infant death syndrome [OR = 1.26, (1.14, 1.39)]. For low birth weight babies, high PM10 exposure was associated, but not significantly, with mortality from respiratory causes [OR = 1.18, (0.86, 1.61)]. This study suggests that particulate matter is associated with risk of postneonatal mortality. Continued attention should be paid to air quality to ensure optimal health of infants in the United States.
Exacerbations of asthma have been associated with exposure to ozone or particles with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 10 microm (PM10). We postulated in this study that the association of summertime air pollution (i.e. ozone and PM10) with acute respiratory symptoms, medication use and peak expiratory flow differs among patients grouped according to asthma severity. During the summer of 1995, effects of ambient air pollution on these parameters were studied in a panel of 60 nonsmoking patients with intermittent to severe persistent asthma. These patients were recruited from our Pulmonary Out-patient Clinic. Subgroup analysis was performed on the degree of hyperresponsiveness and lung steroid use before the start of the study, as indictors for the severity of asthma. Associations of the parameters studied with ozone, PM10, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and black smoke were evaluated using time series analysis. Several episodes with increased summertime air pollution occurred during the 96 day study period. Eight hour average ozone concentrations exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guidelines (120 microg x m(-3)) on 16 occasions. Daily mean levels of PM10 were moderately elevated (range 16-98 microg x m(-3)). Levels of the other measured pollutants were low. There was a consistent, positive association of the prevalence of shortness of breath (maximal relative risk (RRmax) 1.18) with ozone, PM10, black smoke and NO2. In addition, bronchodilator use was associated with both ozone and PM10 levels (RRmax 1.16). Stratification by airway hyperresponsiveness and steroid use did not affect the magnitude of the observed associations. No associations with peak expiratory flow measurements were found. We conclude that the severity of asthma is not an indicator for the sensitivity to air pollution.
Associations have been found between day-to-day particulate air pollution and increased risk of various adverse health outcomes, including cardiopulmonary mortality. However, studies of health effects of long-term particulate air pollution have been less conclusive.
To assess the relationship between long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution and all-cause, lung cancer, and cardiopulmonary mortality.
Vital status and cause of death data were collected by the American Cancer Society as part of the Cancer Prevention II study, an ongoing prospective mortality study, which enrolled approximately 1.2 million adults in 1982. Participants completed a questionnaire detailing individual risk factor data (age, sex, race, weight, height, smoking history, education, marital status, diet, alcohol consumption, and occupational exposures). The risk factor data for approximately 500 000 adults were linked with air pollution data for metropolitan areas throughout the United States and combined with vital status and cause of death data through December 31, 1998.
All-cause, lung cancer, and cardiopulmonary mortality.
Fine particulate and sulfur oxide--related pollution were associated with all-cause, lung cancer, and cardiopulmonary mortality. Each 10-microg/m(3) elevation in fine particulate air pollution was associated with approximately a 4%, 6%, and 8% increased risk of all-cause, cardiopulmonary, and lung cancer mortality, respectively. Measures of coarse particle fraction and total suspended particles were not consistently associated with mortality.
Long-term exposure to combustion-related fine particulate air pollution is an important environmental risk factor for cardiopulmonary and lung cancer mortality.
In a previous panel study in Paris, France, detrimental effects of moderately high levels of winter air pollution on the symptoms and lung function of asthmatic children were demonstrated. A new study was conducted, with the aim of assessing the short-term effects of photo-oxidant and particulate air pollution on childhood asthma during spring and early summer in Paris.
Eighty-two medically diagnosed asthmatic children were followed up for 3 months. Outcomes included the incidence and prevalence of asthma attacks, nocturnal cough, supplementary use of β 2 -agonists, symptoms of airway irritation, and peak expiratory flow (PEF) value and its variability. The statistical methods controlled for the lack of independence between daily health outcomes, temporal trends and pollen and weather conditions.
Black smoke and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) were associated with increases in the occurrence of nocturnal cough and respiratory infections. Ozone (O 3 ) was associated with an increase in the occurrence of asthma attacks and respiratory infections and with changes in lung function, as shown by an increase in PEF variability and a decrease in PEF. Statistically significant interactions were demonstrated between O 3 and temperature and between O 3 and pollen count for asthma attacks. O 3 levels had a greater effect on additional bronchodilator use and on irritations of the eyes, nose and throat on days on which no steroids were used. Particulate matter was associated with eye irritation only.
This study showed that, although within international air quality standards, the prevailing levels of photo-oxidant and particulate pollution in spring and early summer had measurable short-term effects on children with mild-to-moderate asthma.
This paper examines the relation between the results of epidemiologic studies of air pollution mortality and impact indicators that can be informative for environmental policy decisions. Using models that are simple and transparent, yet contain the essential features, it is shown that (1) number of deaths is not meaningful for air pollution, whereas loss of life expectancy (LLE) is an appropriate impact indicator; (2) the usual short-term (time series) studies yield a change in daily number of deaths attributable to acute effects of pollution, without any information on the associated LLE (although some information on this has recently become available by extending the observation window of time series); and (3) long-term studies yield a change in age-specific mortality, which makes it possible to calculate the total population averaged LLE (acute and chronic effects) but not the total number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution. The latter is unobservable because one cannot distinguish whether few individuals suffer a large or many suffer a small LLE. The paper calculates the LLE from exposure to PM10, as implied by the long-term mortality studies of adults and infants; population LLE for infants turns out to be an order of magnitude smaller than for adults. The LLE implied by short-term studies is a small fraction of the total loss implied by long-term studies, even if one assumes a very high loss per death. Applied to environmental policy, taking a permanent 50-70% reduction of PM10 as a reasonable goal, one finds a corresponding increase of average life expectancy in urban areas of the European Union (EU) and the United States of approximately four months.
Panel studies have been used to investigate the short term effects of outdoor particulate air pollution across a wide range of environmental settings.
To systematically review the results of such studies in children, estimate summary measures of effect, and investigate potential sources of heterogeneity.
Studies were identified by searching electronic databases to June 2002, including those where outcomes and particulate level measurements were made at least daily for > or =8 weeks, and analysed using an appropriate regression model. Study results were compared using forest plots, and fixed and random effects summary effect estimates obtained. Publication bias was considered using a funnel plot.
Twenty two studies were identified, all except two reporting PM10 (24 hour mean) >50 microg x m(-3). Reported effects of PM10 on PEF were widely spread and smaller than those for PM2.5 (fixed effects summary: -0.012 v -0.063 l x min(-1) per microg x m(-3) rise). A similar pattern was evident for symptoms. Random effects models produced larger estimates. Overall, in between-study comparisons, panels of children with diagnosed asthma or pre-existing respiratory symptoms appeared less affected by PM10 levels than those without, and effect estimates were larger where studies were conducted in higher ozone conditions. Larger PM10 effect estimates were obtained from studies using generalised estimating equations to model autocorrelation and where results were derived by pooling subject specific regression coefficients. A funnel plot of PM10 results for PEF was markedly asymmetrical.
The majority of identified studies indicate an adverse effect of particulate air pollution that is greater for PM2.5 than PM10. However, results show considerable heterogeneity and there is evidence consistent with publication bias, so limited confidence may be placed on summary estimates of effect. The possibility of interaction between particle and ozone effects merits further investigation, as does variability due to analytical differences that alter the interpretation of final estimates.
There is now substantial evidence that both short- and long-term increases in ambient air pollution are associated with increased mortality and morbidity in adults and children. Children's health is particularly vulnerable to environmental pollution, and infant mortality is still a major contributor to childhood mortality. In this systematic review we summarize and evaluate the current level of epidemiologic evidence of an association between particulate air pollution and infant mortality. We identified relevant publications using database searches with a comprehensive list of search terms and other established search methods. We included articles in the review according to specified inclusion criteria. Fifteen studies met our inclusion criteria. Evidence of an association between particulate air pollution and infant mortality in general was inconsistent, being reported from locations with largely comparable pollution levels. There was some evidence that the strength of association with particulate matter differed by subgroups of infant mortality. It was more consistent for postneonatal mortality due to respiratory causes and sudden infant death syndrome. Differential findings for various mortality subgroups within studies suggest a stronger association of particulate air pollution with some causes of infant death. Research is needed to confirm and clarify these links, using the most appropriate methodologies for exposure assessment and control of confounders.
Over the last decade or so, a large number of studies have investigated the possible adverse effects of ambient air pollution on birth outcomes. We reviewed these studies, which were identified by a systematic search of the main scientific databases. Virtually all reviewed studies were population based, with information on exposure to air pollution derived from routine monitoring sources. Overall, there is evidence implicating air pollution in adverse effects on different birth outcomes, but the strength of the evidence differs between outcomes. The evidence is sufficient to infer a causal relationship between particulate air pollution and respiratory deaths in the postneonatal period. For air pollution and birth weight the evidence suggests causality, but further studies are needed to confirm an effect and its size and to clarify the most vulnerable period of pregnancy and the role of different pollutants. For preterm births and intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) the evidence as yet is insufficient to infer causality, but the available evidence justifies further studies. Molecular epidemiologic studies suggest possible biologic mechanisms for the effect on birth weight, premature birth, and IUGR and support the view that the relation between pollution and these birth outcomes is genuine. For birth defects, the evidence base so far is insufficient to draw conclusions. In terms of exposure to specific pollutants, particulates seem the most important for infant deaths, and the effect on IUGR seems linked to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, but the existing evidence does not allow precise identification of the different pollutants or the timing of exposure that can result in adverse pregnancy outcomes.
Long term effects of air pollution on mortality were studied in 14,284 adults who resided in 24 areas from seven French cities when enrolled in the PAARC survey (air pollution and chronic respiratory diseases) in 1974. Daily measurements of sulphur dioxide, total suspended particles, black smoke, nitrogen dioxide, and nitric oxide were made in 24 areas for three years (1974-76). Cox proportional hazards models controlling for individual confounders (smoking, educational level, body mass index, occupational exposure) were applied, and frailty models used to take into account spatial correlation. Indicators of air pollution were the mean concentration.
Models were run before and after exclusion of six area monitors influenced by local traffic (NO/NO2 >3 in ppb). After exclusion of these areas, analyses showed that adjusted risk ratios (95% CI) for TSP, BS, NO2, and NO for non-accidental mortality were 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08), 1.07 (1.03 to 1.10), 1.14 (1.03 to 1.25), and 1.11 (1.05 to 1.17) for 10 microg/m3 respectively. Consistent patterns for lung cancer and cardiopulmonary causes were observed.
Urban air pollution assessed in the 1970s was associated with increased mortality over 25 years in France.
Time-series analyses have shown that ozone is associated with increased risk of premature mortality, but little is known about how O3 affects health at low concentrations. A critical scientific and policy question is whether a threshold level exists below which O3 does not adversely affect mortality. We developed and applied several statistical models to data on air pollution, weather, and mortality for 98 U.S. urban communities for the period 1987-2000 to estimate the exposure-response curve for tropospheric O3 and risk of mortality and to evaluate whether a "safe" threshold level exists. Methods included a linear approach and subset, threshold, and spline models. All results indicate that any threshold would exist at very low concentrations, far below current U.S. and international regulations and nearing background levels. For example, under a scenario in which the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's 8-hr regulation is met every day in each community, there was still a 0.30% increase in mortality per 10-ppb increase in the average of the same and previous days' O3 levels (95% posterior interval, 0.15-0.45%). Our findings indicate that even low levels of tropospheric O3 are associated with increased risk of premature mortality. Interventions to further reduce O3 pollution would benefit public health, even in regions that meet current regulatory standards and guidelines.
This study investigated the concentration-response relation between air pollution (nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter pollutants PM(10) and PM(2.5)) and cause-specific mortality. The population included all inhabitants of Oslo, Norway, aged 51-90 years on January 1, 1992 (n = 143,842) with follow-up of deaths from 1992 to 1998. An air dispersion model (AirQUIS; Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Oslo, Norway) was used to estimate levels of exposure in 1992-1995 in all 470 administrative neighborhoods. These data were linked to census, education, and death registries. A consistent effect on all causes of death was found for both sexes and age groups by all indicators of air pollution. The effects appeared to increase at nitrogen dioxide levels higher than 40 micro g/m(3) in the youngest age group and with a linear effect in the interval 20-60 micro g/m(3) for the oldest. An effect of all indicators on cardiovascular causes, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was also found in both age groups and sexes. The effects were particularly strong for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, which appeared to have linear effects, whereas cardiovascular causes and lung cancer seemed to have threshold effects. Results show that vulnerable persons with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and the elderly seem to be susceptible to air pollution at lower levels than the general population.
Human-made ecologic transformations have occurred at an unprecedented rate over the past 50 years. Prominent among them are water resource development projects. An estimated 40,000 large dams and 800,000 small dams have been built, and 272 million hectares of land are currently under irrigation worldwide. The establishment and operation of water projects has had a history of facilitating a change in the frequency and transmission dynamics of malaria, but analyses of these environmental risk factors are sparse. Here, we present a comprehensive review of studies that assessed the impact of irrigation and dam building on malaria prevalence or incidence, stratified by the World Health Organization’s (WHO) sub-regions of the world, and link these studies with the latest statistics on disability adjusted life years, irrigated agriculture, and large dams. We also present estimates of the population at risk due to proximity to irrigation schemes and large dam reservoirs. In WHO sub-regions 1 and 2, which have 87.9% of the current global malaria burden, only 9.4 million people are estimated to live near large dams and irrigation schemes. In contrast, the remaining sub-regions concentrate an estimated 15.3 million people near large dams and up to 845 million near irrigation sites, while here only 12.1% of the global malaria burden is concentrated. Whether an individual water project triggers an increase in malaria transmission depends on the contextual determinants of malaria, including the epidemiologic setting, socioeconomic factors, vector management, and health seeking behavior. We conclude that in unstable malaria endemic areas, integrated malaria control measures, coupled with sound water management, are mandatory to mitigate the current burden of malaria in locations near irrigation or dam sites.
Asthma is a common chronic disorder which may be increasing in prevalence. However, little is known of its distribution and determinants. The European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) is a multicentre survey of the prevalence, determinants and management of asthma. This paper presents a descriptive account of the variation in self-reported attacks of asthma and asthma symptoms across Europe, and in part fulfils the first aim of the study. A screening questionnaire, including seven questions relating to the 12 month prevalence of symptoms of asthma, was distributed to representative samples of 20-44 year old men and women in 48 centres, predominantly in Western Europe. The median response rate to the questionnaire was 75% but, after removing from the denominator those who were the wrong age, were known to have moved out of the area, or had died, it was 78% (range 54-100). The prevalence of all symptoms varied widely. Although these were generally lower in northern, central and southern Europe and higher in the British Isles, New Zealand, Australia and the United States, there were wide variations even within some countries. Centres with a high prevalence of self-reported attacks of asthma also reported high prevalences of nasal allergies and of waking at night with breathlessness. The use of asthma medication was more common where wheeze and asthma attacks were more frequent. In most centres in The Netherlands, Sweden, New Zealand and the United Kingdom over 80% of those with a diagnosis of asthma were currently using asthma medication. In Italy, France and Spain the rate was generally less than 70%. These data are the best evidence to date that geographical differences in asthma prevalence exist, are substantial and are not an artefact of the use of noncomparable methods.
Background: Results from time-series epidemiologic studies evaluating the relationship between ambient ozone concentrations and premature mortality vary in their conclusions about the magnitude of this relationship, if any, making it difficult to estimate public health benefits of air pollution control measures. We conducted an empiric Bayes metaregression to estimate the ozone effect on mortality, and to assess whether this effect varies as a function of hypothesized confounders or effect modifiers. Methods: We gathered 71 time-series studies relating ozone to all-cause mortality, and we selected 48 estimates from 28 studies for the metaregression. Metaregression covariates included the relationship between ozone concentrations and concentrations of other air pollutants, proxies for personal exposure-ambient concentration relationships, and the statistical methods used in the studies. For our metaregression, we applied a hierarchical linear model with known level-1 variances. Results: We estimated a grand mean of a 0.21% increase (95% confidence interval = 0.16-0.26%) in mortality per 10-mu g/m(3) increase of 1-hour maximum ozone (0.41% increase per 10 ppb) without controlling for other air pollutants. In the metaregression, air-conditioning prevalence and lag time were the strongest predictors of between-study variability. Air pollution covariates yielded inconsistent findings in regression models, although correlation analyses indicated a potential influence of summertime PM2.5. Conclusions: These findings, coupled with a greater relative risk of ozone in the summer versus the winter, demonstrate that geographic and seasonal heterogeneity in ozone relative risk should be antici-pated, but that the observed relationship between ozone and mortality should be considered for future regulatory impact analyses.
Studies of CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) costs necessarily employ a host of technical and economic assumptions regarding the particular technology or system of interest, including details regarding the capture technology design, the power plant or gas stream treated, and the methods of CO 2 transport and storage. Because the specific assumptions employed can dramatically affect the results of an analysis, published studies are often of limited value to researchers, analysts and industry personnel seeking results for alternative assumptions or plant characteristics. In the present paper, we use a generalized modeling tool to estimate and compare the emissions, efficiency, resource requirements and costs of PC, IGCC and NGCC power plants on a systematic basis. This plant-level analysis explores a broader range of key assumptions than found in recent studies we reviewed. In particular, the effects on cost comparisons of higher natural gas prices and differential plant utilization rates are highlighted, along with implications of financing and operating assumptions for IGCC plants. The impacts of CCS energy requirements on plant-level resource requirements and multi-media emissions also are quantified. While some CCS technologies offer ancillary benefits via the co-capture of certain criteria air pollutants, the increases in specific fuel consumption, reagent use, solid wastes and other air pollutants associated with current CCS systems are found to be significant. To properly characterize such impacts, an alternative definition of the "energy penalty" is proposed in lieu of the prevailing use of this term.
This article reports a study on Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond conducted jointly by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the World Energy Council (WEC). All together three cases of economic and energy developments were developed that sprawl into six scenarios of energy supply alternatives extending until the end of the 21st century. The internal consistency of the scenarios was assessed with the help of formal energy models. The study took close account of world population prospects, economic growth, technological advance, the energy resource base, environmental implications from the local to the global level, financing requirements, and the future prospects of both fossil and nonfossil fuels and industries. Although no analysis can turn an uncertain future into a sure thing, the study identifies patterns that are robust across a purposely broad range of scenarios. The study also enables to relate alternative near-term research and development, technology, economic, and environmental policies to the possible long-term divergence of energy systems structures. Due to the long lead times involved in the turnover of capital stock and infrastructures of the energy system, policies would need to be implemented now in order to initiate long-term structural changes in the energy system that would, however, become significant only after the year 2020.
A succession of environmental events over the last few years has led to a dramatically increased awareness of the issue of global climate change and to the conviction that global climate change is occurring. The anticipated global climate changes are new and unique in that they will have been generated by human activity and could result in large-scale disruptions in ecosystems altering the suitability for organisms currently occupying them. The goals of both conservation biology and agriculture of feeding an increasing world population and preserving species diversity may be seriously challenged when linked to climate change. Anticipated atmospheric changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and greenhouse gases could have extreme effects on species and ecosystems. Human systems could also be affected, especially those based on coastal wetlands or shared river basins. Agriculture will be profoundly affected, with local, regional, and global changes occurring. Species distribution is likely to be drastically altered as a consequence of global warming.
Empirical studies on health at a disaggregate level-by socioeconomic group or geographic location-can provide useful information for designing poverty-focused interventions. Using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data, the author investigates the determinants of health outcomes in low-income countries both at the national level, and for rural and urban areas separately. DHS data from more than 60 low-income countries between 1990 and 1999 reveal two interesting observations. First is the negative association between the level and inequality in child mortality. Second is the significant gap in child mortality between urban and rural areas, with the rural population having a much slower reduction in mortality compared with the urban population. Given that the poor are mainly concentrated in rural areas, the evidence suggests that health interventions implemented in the past decade may not have been as effective as intended in reaching the poor. The empirical findings in this study consolidate results from earlier studies and add new evidence. the author finds that at the national level access to electricity, vaccination in the first year of life, and public health expenditure can significantly reduce child mortality. The electricity effect is shown to be independent of income. In urban areas only access to electricity has a significant health impact, while in rural areas increasing vaccination coverage is important for mortality reduction.
Recently there have been several attempts to estimate the health and economic effects of one or more airborne pollutants using the Health Interview Survey (HIS), a large cross-sectional database collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. The ultimate implications of these studies are unclear, however, since they frequently include different pollutants and health outcomes in the regression analysis. This paper attempts to determine the separate health consequences of two air pollutants common to the urban environment, ozone and particulate matter, using six separate years of the HIS. The results, using a fixed effects model that controls for intercity differences, indicate an association between smaller size particles (fine particulate) and both minor restrictions in activity and respiratory conditions severe enough to result in work loss and bed disability in adults. Ozone, on the other hand, appears to be associated only with the more minor restrictions. However, the measurement error associated with estimating exposure to ozone may limit the usefulness of the HIS which relies on a 2-week recall of health status. The results are compared with other studies using the HIS and related studies involving acute respiratory symptoms.
Long-term exposure to particulate matter air pollution has been associated with increased cardiopulmonary mortality in the USA. We aimed to assess the relation between traffic-related air pollution and mortality in participants of the Netherlands Cohort study on Diet and Cancer (NLCS), an ongoing study.
We investigated a random sample of 5000 people from the full cohort of the NLCS study (age 55-69 years) from 1986 to 1994. Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollutants (black smoke and nitrogen dioxide) was estimated for the 1986 home address. Exposure was characterised with the measured regional and urban background concentration and an indicator variable for living near major roads. The association between exposure to air pollution and (cause specific) mortality was assessed with Cox's proportional hazards models, with adjustment for potential confounders.
489 (11%) of 4492 people with data died during the follow-up period. Cardiopulmonary mortality was associated with living near a major road (relative risk 1.95, 95% CI 1.09-3.52) and, less consistently, with the estimated ambient background concentration (1.34, 0.68-2.64). The relative risk for living near a major road was 1.41 (0.94-2.12) for total deaths. Non-cardiopulmonary, non-lung cancer deaths were unrelated to air pollution (1.03, 0.54-1.96 for living near a major road).
Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution may shorten life expectancy.
Results from time-series epidemiologic studies evaluating the relationship between ambient ozone concentrations and premature mortality vary in their conclusions about the magnitude of this relationship, if any, making it difficult to estimate public health benefits of air pollution control measures. We conducted an empiric Bayes metaregression to estimate the ozone effect on mortality, and to assess whether this effect varies as a function of hypothesized confounders or effect modifiers.
We gathered 71 time-series studies relating ozone to all-cause mortality, and we selected 48 estimates from 28 studies for the metaregression. Metaregression covariates included the relationship between ozone concentrations and concentrations of other air pollutants, proxies for personal exposure-ambient concentration relationships, and the statistical methods used in the studies. For our metaregression, we applied a hierarchical linear model with known level-1 variances.
We estimated a grand mean of a 0.21% increase (95% confidence interval = 0.16-0.26%) in mortality per 10-microg/m increase of 1-hour maximum ozone (0.41% increase per 10 ppb) without controlling for other air pollutants. In the metaregression, air-conditioning prevalence and lag time were the strongest predictors of between-study variability. Air pollution covariates yielded inconsistent findings in regression models, although correlation analyses indicated a potential influence of summertime PM2.5.
These findings, coupled with a greater relative risk of ozone in the summer versus the winter, demonstrate that geographic and seasonal heterogeneity in ozone relative risk should be anticipated, but that the observed relationship between ozone and mortality should be considered for future regulatory impact analyses.
There is ample evidence that short-term ozone exposure is associated with transient decrements in lung functions and increased respiratory symptoms, but the short-term mortality effect of such exposures has not been established.
We conducted a review and meta-analysis of short-term ozone mortality studies, identified unresolved issues, and conducted an additional time-series analysis for 7 U.S. cities (Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Minneapolis-St. Paul, New York City, Philadelphia, and St. Louis).
Our review found a combined estimate of 0.39% (95% confidence interval = 0.26-0.51%) per 10-ppb increase in 1-hour daily maximum ozone for the all-age nonaccidental cause/single pollutant model (43 studies). Adjusting for the funnel plot asymmetry resulted in a slightly reduced estimate (0.35%; 0.23-0.47%). In a subset for which particulate matter (PM) data were available (15 studies), the corresponding estimates were 0.40% (0.27-0.53%) for ozone alone and 0.37% (0.20-0.54%) with PM in model. The estimates for warm seasons were generally larger than those for cold seasons. Our additional time-series analysis found that including PM in the model did not substantially reduce the ozone risk estimates. However, the difference in the weather adjustment model could result in a 2-fold difference in risk estimates (eg, 0.24% to 0.49% in multicity combined estimates across alternative weather models for the ozone-only all-year case).
Overall, the results suggest short-term associations between ozone and daily mortality in the majority of the cities, although the estimates appear to be heterogeneous across cities.
Because the results of the Harvard Six Cities Study played a critical role in the establishment of the current U.S. ambient air quality objective for fine particles (PM(2.5)), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, industry, and nongovernmental organizations called for an independent reanalysis of this study to validate the original findings reported by Dockery and colleagues in the New England Journal of Medicine (vol. 329, pp. 1753-1759) in 1993. Validation of the original findings was accomplished by a detailed statistical audit and replication of original results. With the exception of occupational exposure to dust (14 discrepancies of 249 questionnaires located for evaluation) and fumes (15/249), date of death (2/250), and cause of death (2/250), the audit identified no discrepancies between the original questionnaires and death certificates in the audit sample and the analytic file used by the original investigators. The data quality audit identified a computer programming problem that had resulted in early censorship in 5 of the 6 cities, which resulted in the loss of approximately 1% of the reported person-years of follow-up; the reanalysis team updated the Six Cities cohort to include the missing person-years of observation, resulting in the addition of 928 person-years of observation and 14 deaths. The reanalysis team was able to reproduce virtually all of the original numerical results, including the 26% increase in all-cause mortality in the most polluted city (Stubenville, OH) as compared to the least polluted city (Portage, WI). The audit and validation of the Harvard Six Cities Study conducted by the reanalysis team generally confirmed the quality of the data and the numerical results reported by the original investigators. The discrepancies noted during the audit were not of epidemiologic importance, and did not substantively alter the original risk estimates associated with particulate air pollution, nor the main conclusions reached by the original investigators.
Living close to major roads or highways has been suggested to almost double the risk of dying from cardiopulmonary causes. We assessed whether long-term exposure to air pollution originating from motorized traffic and industrial sources is associated with total and cause-specific mortality in a cohort of women living in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany.
The study was a follow-up of a series of cross-sectional studies carried out during the 1980s and 1990s on the health of women (age 50-59 years). Approximately 4800 women were followed up for vital status and migration. Exposure to air pollution was defined by distance to major roads calculated from Geographic Information System data and by 1- and 5-year average nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particle (PM10) concentrations calculated from air monitoring station data. We analyzed associations between exposure and mortality using Cox's proportional hazards models adjusting for confounders. Relative risks (RRs) refer to an interquartile range increase in exposure (16 microg/m for NO2; 7 microg/m for PM10).
During the follow-up period, 8% of the women died, 3% from cardiopulmonary causes. Cardiopulmonary mortality was associated with living within a 50-meter radius of a major road (adjusted RR = 1.70; 95% confidence interval = 1.02-2.81), with NO2 (1.57; 1.23-2.00 for 1-year average), and with PM10 (1.34; 1.06-1.71 for 1-year average). Exposure to NO2 was also associated with all-cause mortality (1.17; 1.02-1.34). No association was seen with noncardiopulmonary nonlung cancer mortality.
Living close to major roads and chronic exposure to NO2 and PM10 may be associated with an increased mortality due to cardiopulmonary causes.
Fine particulate air pollution has been linked to cardiovascular disease, but previous studies have assessed only mortality and differences in exposure between cities. We examined the association of long-term exposure to particulate matter of less than 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) with cardiovascular events.
We studied 65,893 postmenopausal women without previous cardiovascular disease in 36 U.S. metropolitan areas from 1994 to 1998, with a median follow-up of 6 years. We assessed the women's exposure to air pollutants using the monitor located nearest to each woman's residence. Hazard ratios were estimated for the first cardiovascular event, adjusting for age, race or ethnic group, smoking status, educational level, household income, body-mass index, and presence or absence of diabetes, hypertension, or hypercholesterolemia.
A total of 1816 women had one or more fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular events, as confirmed by a review of medical records, including death from coronary heart disease or cerebrovascular disease, coronary revascularization, myocardial infarction, and stroke. In 2000, levels of PM2.5 exposure varied from 3.4 to 28.3 microg per cubic meter (mean, 13.5). Each increase of 10 microg per cubic meter was associated with a 24% increase in the risk of a cardiovascular event (hazard ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09 to 1.41) and a 76% increase in the risk of death from cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.25 to 2.47). For cardiovascular events, the between-city effect appeared to be smaller than the within-city effect. The risk of cerebrovascular events was also associated with increased levels of PM2.5 (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.68).
Long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution is associated with the incidence of cardiovascular disease and death among postmenopausal women. Exposure differences within cities are associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease.
This paper provides estimates of household health production model for the urban areas of Delhi and Kolkata for measuring benefits from reducing urban air pollution. A system of simultaneous equations comprising of health production function, demand for mitigating activities, and the demand for averting activities is estimated using 3SLS and GMM methods of estimation. The primary data about the health status and socioeconomic characteristics of households were collected for a sample of 1250 households from each city. An estimate of marginal willingness to pay function and welfare gains for a representative household for reducing air pollution to the safe level is obtained for each city. The estimate of annual benefits to all the households in each city is made by extrapolation to the total urban population. This estimate is found to be Rs 5606.6 million for Delhi and Rs 3022.4 million for Kolkata.
Since little is known about the correct specification of the relationship of air pollution and morbidity, it is difficult to draw any solid inferences from any set of regressions based on one single data set. It is important, therefore, to replicate whenever possible the regression results for other similar data sets. In this light, this paper replicates earlier analysis using the 1976 Health Interview Survey to relate morbidity—measured as either days of work loss, restricted activity or respiratory-related restricted activity—to particulate matter. The analysis, which uses 6 years of the annual Health Interview Survey, also uses data on fine particulates, a more relevant measure of exposure to particulate matter than total suspended particulates, which is traditionally used.
We study the economic impacts of climate-change-induced change in human health, viz. cardiovascular and respiratory disorders, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue fever and schistosomiasis. Changes in morbidity and mortality are interpreted as changes in labour productivity and demand for health care, and used to shock the GTAP-E computable general equilibrium model, calibrated for the year 2050. GDP, welfare and investment fall (rise) in regions with net negative (positive) health impacts. Prices, production, and terms of trade show a mixed pattern. Direct cost estimates, common in climate change impact studies, underestimate the true welfare losses.
Power generation and the environment—a UK perspective
- Berry Je Holland Mr
- Boyd R Pr
- Stephenson
Berry JE, Holland MR, Watkiss PR, Boyd R, Stephenson W. Power generation and the environment—a UK perspective, vol 1. http://externe.jrc.es/uk.pdf (accessed Aug 28, 2007).