Article

Predicting offender home location in urban burglary series

May 2008
Forensic Science International 176(2-3):224-35

DOI:10.1016/j.forsciint.2007.09.011

Source
PubMed

Authors:

Manne Laukkanen

Åbo Akademi University

Pekka Santtila

Åbo Akademi University

Patrick Jern

Åbo Akademi University

Unlabelled: Residential location of a criminal can be predicted statistically [M. Laukkanen, P. Santtila, Predicting the home location of a serial commercial robber, Forensic Sci. Int. 157 (2006) 71-82]. Examined were: accuracy of the technique for urban burglary series, correlations between way of committing burglary and distance and use of those correlations in enhancing prediction accuracy. Data: 78 residential burglary series from Greater Helsinki area, Finland. Series for which the home location prediction was made was never part of the predicting model. Distances between home and crime-site were short (Mdn 3.88km; IQR=1.16-10.10km). Search area of a perpetrator could be limited to 1.95% (Mdn, IQR=0.64-18.70%) of the total study area. For series which conformed to Circle Hypothesis (45%), search area was 0.84% (Mdn, IQR=0.51-2.34%). Correlations between crime features and distance were found to enhance accuracy when features of series hinted short distance: sub-model limited search area to 0.19% (Mdn, IQR=0.07-0.65%).

Crime Mapping and Crime Analysis of Ahmednagar City: A Geographical Perspective

Thesis

Full-text available

Jan 2022

Yogesh Kadam

1. Introduction: The current research is intended to explore the geography of crimes in the Ahmednagar city police jurisdiction. Geography of crime studies the spatial structure, environmental association, features of a place and their association with crime (Relph Edward, 1976). As defined by Georges (1978), geography of crime is defined as “the study of spatial manifestation of criminal acts. It is the study of social and cultural organization of criminal behavior in spatial perspective”. Geography of crime studies environmental factors surrounding to criminal events, community ecology and structure temporal aspects of crime along with spatial aspects, type of victim and offender and their neighborhood characteristics along with physical, social, economic and political factors (Kim, 2014, p. 1). Even the crime analysis in general sense advocates the dynamics of geography of crime. Crime analysis is the systematic study of crime and disorder problem, as well as other police-related issues – including sociodemographic, spatial and temporal factors- to assist the police in criminal apprehension, crime and disorder reduction, crime prevention, and evaluation (Boba, 2016). From this definition it seems that crime analysis incorporated the crime geography perspective in it. Therefore the current study analyses the occurred crimes in Ahmednagar city police jurisdiction from the geographical perspective. Spatial-temporal analysis is considered to be an integral part in geographical studies and research. This research also included the spatio-temporal analysis using crime maps prepared by advanced GIS techniques. Besides this, socio-economic aspects of the crimes are also explored in the study. We have opted the deductive approach in the study where the validity of dynamics of crime geography has been checked in the analysis of crimes in the study area. We believe that this is a pioneering work in understanding crime geography in Indian context which can be applied to crime analysis at various levels in India and can use for international comparison. 2. Justification of Research: Spatial studies of various human and physical aspects and environmental, socio-economic and demographic factors influencing on them are lies at the core of geographical studies. Geography of crime studies crimes from geographical point of view and current research also tried to sought crime from the same perspective. Since Chicago school of criminology, various scholars studied the crime scenario and their perceived causes in various countries at macro, meso and micro level. Even in India there are many crime studies from different perspective (for example, Agarwal, 2018; Bushra Bano, 2013; Chauhan Ritvik and Baraik Vijay Kumar, 2016; Gupta, Rajitha, Basu, & Mittal, 2012; Karmakar, 2017; Math et al., 2014; Rajesh & Punithavalli, 2012; Sahu & Srivastava, 2004). Most of these studies in India are related either to particular type of crime or particular method or particular aspect of crime. But author didn’t come across any single study which incorporated the theories of crime geography empirically. Current search work with meso and micro-level analysis of crimes in Ahmednagar city police jurisdiction from geographical perspective carried the deductive approach and tried the empirical assessment of theories of crime including social disorganization theory, routine activity theory and geometric theory of crime. Spatio-temporal aspects of crimes in the study region have explored via crime mapping with the help of various tools and techniques of GIS. Crime causation from social ecology and environmental criminology perspective also explained with the help of empirical assessment of theories of crime geography which include the socio-economic and demographic determinants of crimes in the study area. Our research explored spatial aspects of crimes, temporal aspects of crimes, testing of social disorganization theory, routine activity theory and geometric theory of crime. Our research would also help in crime preventive measures to for crime prevention, control, apprehension and reduction which indicate the applicability of the search in real world. 3. Study Area: The current study is confined to 'Ahmednagar city police jurisdiction' (ACPJ) which is located in and around of Ahmednagar city, which is a district place of Ahmednagar district of Maharashtra states in India. The latitudinal extent of the study area is 19º1’11’’ North Latitude to 19º9’18’’ North Latitude and longitudinal extent is 74º40'33'' East Longitude to 74º50’16’’ East Longitude. The study area holds 435,811 people (2011 Census of India) and 186.16 km2 area composed of three police sub-jurisdictions: Kotwali, Topkhana and Camp. ACPJ is composed both of urban and rural area where the urban area (Ahmednagar Municipal Corporation and Ahmednagar Cantonment Board) accounts 80 % population and 58 % geographical area out of the whole study region. The dominance of urban area in the study region has also persisted in the level of crime where more than 80 % crimes during the year 2011-2018 (study period) were registered in the urban sub-jurisdictions (Kotwali and Tofkhana). We have taken ‘block’ as a unit of analysis accounting total 26 blocks from three different administrative units including Ahmednagar Municipal Corporation (17 blocks), Ahmednagar Cantonment Board (1 block) and adjacent 8 villages (8 blocks). Distribution of block area is skewed with 7.16 km2 average area while the maximum and minimum area of the block is 30.89 km2 and 0.91 km2 respectively. Urban blocks held high population density than the rural counterparts. 4. Objectives: 1. To comprehend socio-economic and demographic profile of the study area in the context of crime studies 2. To carry out the spatio-temporal crime analysis and crime mapping of the study area 3. To find out the socio-economic and demographic determinants of crime pattern and crime distribution in the study area 5. Sources of Data: The present study based on both primary and secondary data. Required data and its sources are as given below.  Boundaries and Maps: • Base map of the Police Jurisdiction: Base map of the Ahmednagar city police jurisdiction (ACPJ) has been collected from the office of Sub-Divisional Police Officer of the Ahmednagar city. • Ward-wise map of Ahmednagar Municipal Corporation (AMC): This map has been collected from the official website of AMC. • Civil area map of Ahmednagar Cantonment Board (ACB): This map has been collected from the office of ACB. • Maps of adjacent eight villages: These maps were extracted from district census handbook and SOI toposheet.  Primary Data of Crime and Population: • GPS locations of crimes and criminals home base: GPS locations of criminal incidents based on their address mentioned in the crime register were collected with the help of GPS instrument. 8202 locations of various crimes were found out of 9171 cognizable IPC crimes registered during the year 2011-2018. Offenders who arrested for committing any crime during the year 2011-2018 were considered for the further offenders study and GPS locations of their home addresses, as mentioned in the police record, were collected. 8738 GPS locations of offenders’ address were found and collected out of 13651 offenders. • Population characteristics of crime-prone and safe zone neighborhoods: Population data of personal and household characteristics with special emphasis on criminogenic characteristics (derived from crime theories) of the area were collected with the help of sample survey from the crime-prone and safe zone neighborhoods. Random sample survey was carried out in total 26 blocks (wards and villages) and information from the 1081 households was collected. Depending on the size of population information from nearly 30 to 70 households was collected from each block.  Secondary Data of Crime and Population: • Crime Data Collection: Data of cognizable IPC crimes registered during the year 2011-2018 has considered for the further analysis with the permission of concerned police authority. This data of crime has been collected manually from ‘crime entry registers’ (part I to V) and ‘arrest registers’ from three police stations of ACPJ. Crime entry registers includes the information regarding crime number, date and time of criminal incidents, type of crime and its IPC act/s, date and time of criminal incidence, address of criminal incident etc. Arrest registers includes the information regarding personal and demographic characteristics of accused such as age, gender, address, religion, caste, education occupation and addiction of accused. • Population characteristics: Population characteristics of study area were compiled from various sources. Population characteristics of Ahmednagar municipal corporation (AMC) has been collected from 2011 Ahmednagar district census handbook of as well as from official website of AMC. Population characteristics of Ahmednagar cantonment board (ACB) and adjacent eight villages of Nagar tehsil has been collected from 2011 Ahmednagar district census handbook. 6. Methodology: Following process has been carried out for the generation of base map and other aspects:  Obtaining of Satellite data and related attribute data  Remote sensing techniques and Geographical Information System used for the generation of base map and related data base from toposheet of Survey of India (SOI) and satellite data  Application of standard image processing techniques to identify spatial distribution of land use and land cover in the study area using GIS  Creation of GIS layers: Boundary of study area from the topographical maps and Google map for the study area using ArcGIS software. The following methods and techniques are used in the study for crime analysis. A) GIS Techniques: • Kernel Density Tool: Study adopted this tool in ArcGIS to extract the spatial distribution of density of crime using natural break method. This study is used to prepare crime maps for the spatio-temporal analysis of crimes. B) Cartographic Techniques: • Cartographic techniques such as bar graph and line graphs are used for the trend analysis of crimes. C) Statistical Techniques: • Crime Rate: Crime Rate = C/P * 100,000 Where C = No. of crimes in area, P = Total population of the area Crime rate is used for the trend analysis of crimes. • Multivariate Regression Estimates: y = b1x2 + b2x2 + ….. + bnxn + c Where b1’s (i = 1,2,…n) are the regression coefficient, which represent the value at which the criterion variable changes when the predictor variable changes. This method has been used in the study to estimate the impact of social disorganization variables on level of crimes in the study area. • Chi-Square Test: χ2 = ∑(O – E)2 / E Where ∑ means to sum up, O = each observed (actual) value, E = each expected value This test is used for the assessment of impact of socio-economic variables (grouped or dichotomous variables) on the level of crimes in the study area. • Mann-Whitney U Test: A Mann-Whitney U test is a non-parametric test. This test has been carried out in SPSS in crime trip distance analysis when independent variables were dichotomous in nature. • Kruskal-Wallis H test: A Kruskal-Wallis H test is a non-parametric test. It is used when independent variables were available in Likert-scale. This test is used in the crime trips distance analysis. D) Computer Programming: Distances between the location of offenders’ home and location of crimes have been extracted using coding in MS Excel macros. Total 8738 crime trip distances were extracted using this technique. E) Survey Method: Household sample survey has been carried out in all 26 blocks in the study region. In survey 1081 samples from the household have been collected. Socio-economic analysis of crimes has been carried out through statistical analysis on the data collected from the sample survey. 7. Major findings: Chapter-wise comprehensive findings are as follow. a) Chapter IV: Socio-Ecological Determinants of Crimes: Testing of social disorganization theory on data revealed the consistency of current results with this theory which underlined the applicability and validity of social disorganization theory for crime analysis in the study area. The level of education, income and occupation of people are seen associated with crimes in the study area. The degree of urbanization is found the most important correlates in the many crimes in the study. A good friendship network and residential stability of residents is found resistance for criminal activities in the neighborhood. Measures of social heterogeneity, family disruption and organizational participation are needed to be revised or changed in the context of study area but not because of their inconsistency with theory but because of the different social setup of traditional society like Ahmednagar city in more specific manner than the western society in which social disorganization concept have been structured. But testing of social disorganization theory revealed that spatial variations in crimes (at the neighborhood level) are associated with the socio-economic characteristics of the people and area. Hence induced constructive change in social ecology can reduce, control and prevent crimes at least in class I type cities like Ahmednagar city. The current study has shown the moderate association of crimes in the Ahmednagar police jurisdiction with many socio-structural characteristics of the area. This association is consistent with the CPTED aspect of crime study. Particularly some indicators of activity support, neighborhood control and surveillance dimension of CPTED have considerably differentiated the degree of crimes at the neighborhood level in the study area. The proximity of societal activities like public garden/sports ground, shopping complexes and school/college is seen significantly associated with the degree of crimes in Ahmednagar city. The diurnal crowd of outsiders is seen influenced on the degree of crimes at neighborhood level. Moderate effect of lighting and ownership of houses has been observed on the level of crimes in Ahmednagar city police jurisdiction. Indicators of access control and territoriality are needed to be revised or changed in the socio-structural context of small city like Ahmednagar. Overall these socio-structural variables are significantly associated with the degree of crimes at the neighborhood level in the study area. This suggest that modification or construction physical environment through social fabrication can prevent crimes in the first place in Ahmednagar city police jurisdiction. b) Chapter V: Spatial Analysis of Crimes Consistent with this dynamics of environmental criminology, the spatial distributions of crimes in the Ahmednagar city police jurisdiction are seen associated with the commercial, recreational and residential use of land, residential categories such as high-class to low-class residences or slums, location of transportation nodes and pathways and mobility of people within existing physical environment and congregation of transient population at nodes of work, shopping, recreation and transportation and pathways between them. Spatial variations in the distribution of crimes in Ahmednagar city have been observed according to the differences in degree of these factors. Beside this static physical environment, spatial concentration of crimes is also differentiated by proximity of offenders' home location. The spatial proximity of offender is found highly relevant correlates of crimes in Ahmednagar city police jurisdiction. Spatial differences in distribution of crimes are also observed according the individual characteristics of offenders including age of offenders and their solo or co-offending type. Among all aspects of crimes considered in the current study, the spatial correlates of crime have shown the utmost consistency with the spatial distribution of crimes in the Ahmednagar city at various levels. The results generated from spatial analysis of crime have visualized the actual spatial concentration of crimes and their spatial correlates which are considered to be the most important source for executing crime preventive strategies in the study area. Spatial analysis of crime can facilitate maximum crime prevention using the minimum policing resources which can save money, time and energy of the police organization. c) Chapter VI: Trend Analysis of Crimes The temporal aspect of crime has an equal importance like spatial aspect of crime and both cannot be separated from each other. Crime cannot be prevented fully by just knowing its places while ignoring its temporal patterns of occurrences. The current study observed the temporal variations in the occurrences of crimes in the study area which are seen associated with the hourly, daily, weekly, monthly and seasonal changes in the routine activities of the mainstream urban population such as work and leisure hours, weekdays and weekends, festivals, holidays, rainy season, summer and winter vacations. The inclusion of temporal aspect of crime along with the spatial aspect can strengthen the crime preventive strategies which can reduce maximum possible crimes in the Ahmednagar city police jurisdiction. d) Chapter VII: Crime Trip Distance Analysis Crime trip distance analysis or journey-to-crime analysis reveals the factors responsible for differences in distance travelled by offenders for offending various crimes in Ahmednagar city police jurisdiction. The current study has mainly focused on the influence of personal characteristics of offenders on the crime trip distances travelled by offenders for offending various crimes in Ahmednagar city. This found that crime trips distances are relatively shorter suggesting that mainstream offenders are preferred to offend crime near their home locations than farther areas. Crime trip distances for serious crimes like murder, molestation and grievous hurt are observed relatively shorter than for property crimes like theft, burglary and robbery in Ahmednagar city. The crime trip distances travelled by offenders for offending various crimes in the study area are seen statistically significantly associated with the personal characteristics of offenders which includes the age of offenders, gender of offenders, offending type, age of offenders along with offending type, neighborhood proximity and locality of offenders. The results revealed in this analysis can become helpful to formulate the geographic profiling technique for predicting the location of offender/s based on earlier crime trips distances and their correlates. This can become the most important application of this study if used for criminal apprehension and future crime prevention in the Ahmednagar city. 8. Conclusion and Suggestions: The spatial distribution of crimes revealed that crime hotspots of the many crimes in the study area are concentrated around the core area of Ahmednagar city. This is the CBD of Ahmednagar city having many commercial, administrative, social and recreational nodes. With the increasing population these commercial nodes are expanding radially from the center and it could be possible that crime hotspots may expand simultaneously. Spatial proximity of offenders has been seen dominant correlates of spatial distribution of crimes in the study area. Rapidly expanding transportation nodes and pathways can facilitate offenders to come closer to targets without living nearby. This may become the negative impact of infrastructural growth of the study area. From any facets geometric theory of crime answered the spatial distribution of crimes and subsequent changes in the same due to inevitable spatial expansion of city life. Globalization has been changing the routine life of urban inhabitants. People are being busier in non-household activities with non-household members. This is withdrawing informal guardianship from society and in turn, supporting indirectly to illegal criminal activities. Routine activity theory revealed that all these changing activities are the cause of crimes at particular space and time. Ever changing physical-structural environment cannot become detached from the human environment and its socio-economic and demographic aspect. Social set-up of the area is changing rapidly like never before which resulting in to loosening of social ties among people, group and area. Additionally unequal distribution of resources regarding the materialistic life is leading many individuals into criminality due lack of resources and opportunity. And this is becoming cause for many individuals to involve in offending property crimes and personal crimes. These socio-economic and demographic determinants are addressed very well in social disorganization theory and present study found the association of crimes with the same theory. In nutshell, earlier theories of crime geography are still found valid to answer the causes of crimes in study area. The results from the present study can be used for crime reduction and crime prevention strategies in class-I type cities in Maharashtra states of India and it can be used for comparison also.

Modelling serial offenders’ spatial behaviours: new assumptions for geographic profiling

Thesis

Full-text available

Oct 2014

Marie Trotta

Comparing the accuracy of geographic profiling (in Japanese)

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2018

Studies of geographic profiling (GP) have generally investigated the efficacy of two categories of GP strategies for predicting an offender’s base. These strategies can be classified as follows: (a) spatial distribution strategies, assessed by center of the circle hypothesis, mean center, median center, and the center of minimum distance, and (b) probability distance strategies, assessed by linear, negative exponential, logarithmic, and lognormal distributions. GP strategies were compared based on the data of 333 residential burglars who had committed at least three offenses in the Tohoku region during the years 2004-2013. Search area (total area that is searched before locating the offender’s base) was utilized as an index for accuracy measure. The results demonstrated that probability distance strategies are more accurate than spatial distribution strategies. We conclude that this is because probability distance strategies captured crime patterns of residential burglars more precisely than spatial distribution strategies.

The linking of burglary crimes using offender behaviour: Testing research cross‐nationally and exploring methodology

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2011
LEGAL CRIMINOL PSYCH

Purpose. The current study tests whether existing behavioural case linkage findings from the United Kingdom (UK) will replicate abroad with a sample of residential burglaries committed in Finland. In addition, a previously discussed methodological issue is empirically explored. Methods. Seven measures of behavioural similarity, geographical proximity, and temporal proximity are calculated for pairs of burglary crimes committed by 117 serial burglars in Finland. The ability of these seven measures to distinguish between pairs of crimes committed by the same offender (linked pairs) and different offenders (unlinked pairs) is tested using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Two methodologies for forming the unlinked pairs are compared; one representing the ‘traditional’ approach used by research and, the other, a new approach that represents a potentially more realistic and statistically sound approach to testing case linkage. Results. A wider range of offender behaviours were able to distinguish between linked and unlinked crime pairs in the current Finnish sample than in previous UK-based research. The most successful features were the kilometre-distance between crimes (the intercrime distance), the number of days separating offences (temporal proximity), and a combination of target, entry, internal, and property behaviours (the combined domain). There were no statistically significant differences between the two methodological approaches. Conclusions. The current findings demonstrate that a wider range of offender behaviours can be used to discriminate between linked and unlinked residential burglary crimes committed in Finland than in the UK. The use of a more realistic and statistically sound methodology does not lead to substantial changes in case linkage findings.

Mobility and distance decay at the aggregated and individual level

Chapter

Jan 2010

Stijn Van Daele

Most crimes are committed near to where the offender lives; this has been observed both at the aggregate and at the offender level. At the aggregate level, as the distance increases there is a decline in the number of offences committed, and initially this decline is quite slow. This pattern has been described by a number of researchers, and results in a distance decay curve. Near-home offending has also been observed at the level of the individual offender, although it has been debated whether distance decay actually exists at the level of the individual offender. We therefore believe it is important to distinguish near-home offending from decay, i.e. the gradual decline in offences as distances increase. This paper studies mobility patterns and decay curves on serious property crimes in Belgium. First, aggregated patterns are discussed and categorised. Second, individual offenders are analysed. It becomes clear through studying offender patterns that offender mobility and decay are not intertwined at the individual level to the same extent as they are at the aggregate level. This suggests that it is important, particularly when studying individual offenders, to clarify whether (average) distances or decay are being considered.

An open-source implementation of geographic profiling methods for serial crime analysis

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2023
J GEOGR SYST

The rgeoprofile R package was developed to implement functions for the analysis of serial crime incidents. Geographic profiling is an investigative technique that utilizes the spatial relationship of a connected series of crime incidents to determine or predict the most probable area of offender residence or anchor point. If successfully used as a decision support system, criminal geography can be used to help law enforcement agencies strategically target certain areas for inquiry or prioritize suspects through a narrowed search window. As an open-source platform, the rgeoprofile package contains several rapid reproducible models of spatial analysis using either centrographic or distance decay functions to predict the offender’s home base. An open-source approach results in transparent analyses with no-cost availability for agencies. Additionally, since both mathematical models and investigator heuristics have been shown to provide viable options for criminal geographic profiling, a software package, which integrates different solutions to the geographic profiling problem was needed. Finally, the article demonstrates the various geographic profiling methods in a case study of the Boston Strangler to illustrate the advantages of each approach.

A study on the journey to homicide and offender characteristics in Spain

Article

Jan 2021

In this study, the displacement of 687 murderers in Spain (2010–2012) is analysed. The Euclidean distance between the offender's residence and the furthest scene related to the event has been calculated. The analyses showed that the murderers registered a displacement of 0.5 km, with 255 cases of non‐traveller homicide (37.1%). The bivariate analysis found that men, young and foreign, with a criminal record and unrelated to the victim, registered a large distance, as well as multi‐offender homicides and were related to criminal activities. Traveller homicide registered a displacement of 4.3 km, with adults unrelated to the victim travelling the farthest. Multi‐offender and crime‐related homicides continued to show the largest distance. Multivariate analyses showed that if the offender is foreign, has no previous relationship with the victim and there are several offenders involved, the distance will be larger. When only traveller homicides were analysed, only the type of relationship showed significant differences.

Tipologia geográfica de ofensores: Aplicação da Circle Theory no contexto criminogéneo nacional | Offender geographical typologies: Applying the Circle Theory in the Portuguese criminogenic context

Thesis

Full-text available

Oct 2016

Pedro Liberado

The present study intended to replicate Canter and Larkin’s (1993) circle theory of environmental range model, aiming to explore the analog or dissimilar geographical behavior of sex offenders and robbery and/or theft criminals, considering their spatial and geographical mobility, dicotomically classifying them as marauders or commuters. To achieve such purpose, 592 crimes and 3399 routes and criminal distances were analyzed, belonging to a sample of 100 inmates incarcerated in three Portuguese prisons that have committed, at least, two or more crimes in two or more different locations. We found not only that these inmates tendentiously follow a marauder geographical pattern, which is valid for both criminal typologies (sex offenders – 62%; robbers/thieves – 59%), but also that the geographical pattern that characterizes an offender spatial behavior is not dependent to its criminal typology. Then, a socio-demographic and criminal characterization was made to both geographical and criminal typologies, according to the offender’s criminal nature, where the verification of the distances traveled by each pattern was revelatory of the spatial modus operandi for both groups. Given that fact, it was verified that commuters, independently of their criminal typology, tend to commit their criminal acts at a shorter distance from home, while in the other hand, marauders are likely to commit crimes in places far from each other, corroborating the presence of technical commuters and distant marauders (Paulsen, 2007) in the sample of the present investigation. Through the analysis of the range hypothesis, it was verified that the marauders’ home location, with a particular emphasis regarding the robbers/thieves, assumes a significant centrality in relation to the area defined by the criminal range, assigning a crucial role on defining and characterizing the offender’s awareness and activity spaces. The predictive capacity of Canter and Larkin’s circle hypothesis (1993) as a geographical profiling heuristic framework was also confirmed, since the offender tend to maintain in N the geographical pattern identified in N-1, considering that N stands for the total number of crimes committed by a certain offender. Finally, the obtained results were discussed and interpreted accordingly, as well as the inherent limitations to the present study. Suggestions to future investigations were made, warning researchers of some particular subjects lacking improvements.

Linkage analysis using geographical proximity: a test of the efficacy of distance measures

Article

May 2020

Purpose The purpose of this paper was to compare the accuracy of linking crimes using geographical proximity between three distance measures: Euclidean (distance measured by the length of a straight line between two locations), Manhattan (distance obtained by summing north-south distance and east-west distance) and the shortest route distances. Design/methodology/approach A total of 194 cases committed by 97 serial residential burglars in Aomori Prefecture in Japan between 2004 and 2015 were used in the present study. The Mann–Whitney U test was used to compare linked (two offenses committed by the same offender) and unlinked (two offenses committed by different offenders) pairs for each distance measure. Discrimination accuracy between linked and unlinked crime pairs was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Findings The Mann–Whitney U test showed that the distances of the linked pairs were significantly shorter than those of the unlinked pairs for all distance measures. Comparison of the AUCs showed that the shortest route distance achieved significantly higher accuracy compared with the Euclidean distance, whereas there was no significant difference between the Euclidean and the Manhattan distance or between the Manhattan and the shortest route distance. These findings give partial support to the idea that distance measures taking the impact of environmental factors into consideration might be able to identify a crime series more accurately than Euclidean distances. Research limitations/implications Although the results suggested a difference between the Euclidean and the shortest route distance, it was small, and all distance measures resulted in outstanding AUC values, probably because of the ceiling effects. Further investigation that makes the same comparison in a narrower area is needed to avoid this potential inflation of discrimination accuracy. Practical implications The shortest route distance might contribute to improving the accuracy of crime linkage based on geographical proximity. However, further investigation is needed to recommend using the shortest route distance in practice. Given that the targeted area in the present study was relatively large, the findings may contribute especially to improve the accuracy of proactive comparative case analysis for estimating the whole picture of the distribution of serial crimes in the region by selecting more effective distance measure. Social implications Implications to improve the accuracy in linking crimes may contribute to assisting crime investigations and the earlier arrest of offenders. Originality/value The results of the present study provide an initial indication of the efficacy of using distance measures taking environmental factors into account.

Comparing Accuracy of Geographic Profiling by Differences in Distance Measures (in Japanese)

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2019

The accuracy of geographic profiling for predicting a serial offender's home/base location was compared by using three different distance measures—the Euclidean distance, the Manhattan distance, and the Shortest route distance—using the data of 1,856 crimes committed by 124 residential burglars in Northern Tohoku area of Japan from 2004 to 2015. Logarithmic and the negative exponential coefficients were estimated as the distance decay function for each distance measure by using leave-one-out cross-validation. Also, search areas were calculated to compare the accuracy of geographic profiling. Results of the Friedman's test indicated significant differences in search areas of the three distance measures for the wide area group which consisted of offenders having a long distance between crime locations. The search area when utilizing the Shortest route distance was the smallest for the logarithmic function, whereas the search areas using the Euclidean distance and the Shortest route distance were smaller than the Manhattan distance for the negative exponential function. Results of the narrow area group did not indicate significant differences in search areas for the three distance measures. Therefore, it was concluded that geographic profiling might be improved by using the Shortest route distance when calculating the probability distribution for offenders committing crimes in a wide area that includes many edges, such as rivers, railroads, and mountains, as well as paths such as bridges and railroad crossings.

Perfil criminal geográfico: novas perspectivas comportamentais para investigação de crimes violentos no Brasil

Article

Full-text available

May 2018

O objetivo do estudo é pontuar as bases teóricas e empíricas do perfil criminal geográfico, além de sua aplicabilidade no Brasil, tendo em vista que os estudos sobre a relação entre comportamento e ambiente possibilitam, de acordo com a literatura, contribuições e tecnologias que auxiliem na investigação de crimes violentos em série. São expostas teorias, modelos e áreas de estudo, como a criminologia ambiental e a psicologia investigativa, que buscam estabelecer relações significativas entre características do ambiente e do criminoso em relação à locomoção e mobilidade para o cometimento de comportamentos criminosos específicos, especialmente os violentos. Por fim, é proposta uma agenda de pesquisa, tendo em vista a necessidade de produções científicas para divulgar e embasar a aplicação de tal técnica investigativa.

Review: Principles of Geographical Profiling

Article

Jan 2017
J. Forensic Biomech.

Geographical profiling has been developed within the scientific community as a useful criminal investigation method. Its application in violent crimes has demanded a theoretical review and a valuation about the methodology used until now. This article offers a review of the basic concepts of geographical profiling and its evolution over time. To do that, there is an analysis of the main sustaining theories, such as environmental criminology or the circle theory and the main tools developed as computer software. Finally, it also covers a critical review about geographical profiling and its possible developments in the future.

Linkage analysis across different types of crime, by using geographical and temporal proximity (in Japanese)

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2016

Shumpei Haginoya

A number of studies have investigated behavioral case linkage between crimes of a specified type, such as linking one residential burglary with another residential burglary. However, only a few studies have investigated the effectiveness of case linkage across crime types, which have been limited to the UK. This study examined whether linking across crime types using spatio-temporal proximity was possible in samples that were different from the UK in terms of the structure of crime classification. This was accomplished by calculating the discrimination accuracy between linked crime pairs (two offenses committed by the same offender) and unlinked crime pairs (two offenses committed by different offenders) using geographical (inter-crime distance) and temporal proximity (number of days between offenses) across various crimes committed in Japan. Both the geographical proximity and temporal proximity had statistically significant levels of discrimination accuracy across crime types as assessed by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. This suggests the possibility of identifying a crime series by geographical and temporal proximity across multiple crime types in Japan.

Distance matters: a look at crime trip distances in Flanders

Chapter

Jan 2013

Christophe Vandeviver

Most journey-to-crime studies are flawed in two ways: they predominantly rely on local police data and although a number of studies hint at the presence of substantially longer crime trips than commonly reported, long trips are deliberately removed from further analysis. Consequently, the scope of the conclusions of current journey-to-crime studies is limited to local offending and their empirical design is biased towards finding short trips. This paper substantiates the need for dedicated criminological research into long crime trips and provides an initial insight into journey-to-crime distances in the greater Ghent area, Belgium. By analyzing 5 year public prosecutor data on property crimes from the greater Ghent area, the length of the journey to crime and the number of long crime trips is assessed. Findings demonstrate a substantial amount of long crime trips with 35% of crime trips over 10 km. The criminological implications for future journey-to-crime research are discussed.

A Comparison of Logistic Regression and Classification Tree Analysis for Behavioural Case Linkage

Article

Jan 2012

Socio-Spatial Intelligence: social media and spatial cognition for territorial behavioral analysis

Article

Jul 2015
Cognit Process

Investigative analysts gather data from different sources, especially from social media (SM), in order to shed light on cognitive factors that may explain criminal spatial behavior. A former research shows how tweets can be used to estimate private points of interest. Authors' aim was to demonstrate, as they extend the analysis to a wider statistical base, how social maps and Web applications could be used in investigative analysis and spatial cognition research. A total of 100 Twitter accounts with approximately 250 tweets each were submitted to common geographical techniques (measures such as Convex-Hull, Mean-Center, Median-Center, Standard-Deviation-Ellipse) in order to test the hypothesis that user areas of activity are predictable. Predictions were tested through a set of specific information: clear reference to areas of activity and clear reference about user's residence. Simple algorithms and procedures demonstrated that they could be used to predict where SM users live, giving positive results in about 4/5 cases and giving indications about their home location. In fact, all home positions were found in the Convex-Hull and most of them in the Standard-Deviation-Ellipse. Furthermore, in up to 80% of cases, houses were found within a buffer zone of 1.500 m with Median-Center as centrum (70% using Median-Center as centrum) with a minimum effectiveness threshold of 12-13 tweets. SM may help in studying people mobility and their cognition of space and, moreover, where they live, or their traveling behavior. The processing of geographical data in conjunction with the SM analysis may facilitate the construction of models describing specific behavior of people. The use of geographical information system tools and SM analysis represents an effective approach in order to acquire spatial and territorial information, referred to social relationship. The results may be used successfully in the understanding of social dynamics and for the prevention of criminal behavior.

The effectiveness of calibrated versus default distance decay functions for geographic profiling: A preliminary examination of crime type

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2011

This study examines whether a distance decay function calibrated for a particular crime type results in more accurate geographic profiles compared to default functions that are not calibrated for one specific crime type. Decay functions were calibrated for three different types of serial crime (residential burglary, theft, and auto theft) collected from the same geographic region (Glendale, AZ, USA). The two default functions used for comparison purposes (truncated negative exponential and negative exponential) came from CrimeStat (v. 3.1), a computerized geographic profiling system. The hypothesis that calibrated functions would possess more predictive power than default functions was not supported. Potential explanations for these findings are provided and implications are discussed.

Behavioural case linkage with solved and unsolved crimes

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2012

Offender behaviour is used to distinguish between crimes committed by the same person (linked crimes) and crimes committed by different people (unlinked crimes) through behavioural case linkage. There is growing evidence to support the use of behavioural case linkage by investigative organisations such as the police, but this research is typically limited to samples of solved crime that do not reflect how this procedure is used in real life. The current paper extends previous research by testing the potential for behavioural case linkage in a sample containing both solved and unsolved crimes. Discrimination accuracy is examined across crime categories (e.g. a crime pair containing a car theft and a residential burglary), across crime types (e.g. a crime pair containing a residential burglary and a commercial burglary), and within crime types (e.g. a crime pair containing two residential burglaries) using the number of kilometres (intercrime distance) and the number of days (temporal proximity) between offences to distinguish between linked and unlinked crimes. The intercrime distance and/or the temporal proximity were able to achieve statistically significant levels of discrimination accuracy across crime categories, across crime types, and within crime types as measured by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. This suggests that behavioural case linkage can be used to assist the investigation, detection and prosecution of prolific and versatile serial offenders.

Pachatelé vloupání - osobnost, agrese a strategie

Book

Full-text available

Jul 2010

Prediction of serial perpetrator residence: Part I—Induction of models utilising spatio‐temporal routing functions and investigative information

Article

Oct 2022

This article presents a new framework for the geographic profiling problem which assesses and integrates the travel environment of road networks; beliefs and assumptions formed through the investigation process about the perpetrator; and information derived from the analysis of evidence. Each piece of information is evaluated in conjunction with functions which gather real‐time travel information, including both time and distance of likely perpetrator travel, and is then used to update prior beliefs about the potential base of operation of the perpetrator. A novel approach was developed to generate geographic profiles given different amounts of information about the perpetrator: a centrographic strategy for when only the victim dump sites are known; a perpetrator trek strategy for instances where both victim encounter and dump sites are available; and a formal evidence‐driven model which leverages and integrates available information and evidence relevant to the case for the development of a geographic profile. A follow‐up article will evaluate these models through a comprehensive application to the Yorkshire Ripper investigation (see Part II).

Cools, M., De Kimpe, S., De Ruyver, B., Easton, M., Pauwels, L., Ponsaers, P. , Vander Beken, T., Vander Laenen, F., Vande Walle, G., Vermeulen, G. (eds.) (2009). Contemporary Issues in the Empirical Study of Crime, Antwerpen: Maklu, Governance of Security Research Papers Series I, pp. 261.

Book

Full-text available

Jan 2009

Cools, M., De Ruyver, B., Easton, M., Pauwels, L., Ponsaers, P. , Vande Walle, G., Vander Beken, T., Vander Laenen, F., Vermeulen, G., Vynckier, G. (eds.) (2010). New Empirical Data, Theories and Analyses on Safety, Societal Problems and Citizens’ Perceptions, Antwerpen-Apeldoorn: Maklu, Governance of Security Research Papers Series, n°3, pp. 312.

Book

Full-text available

Jan 2010

After release in early 2009 of an initial set of two volumes in the GofS Research Paper Series, the editorial board is proud to issue a set of two more volumes, comprising papers (again all reviewed by international peers, the list of which is set out in the appendix) clustered around two well-profiled research axes. Volume 4 focuses on topical issues in EU and International Crime Control. Its table of contents is provided below the brief description of the papers comprised in the current book, which constitutes Volume 3, providing new empirical data, theories and analyses on Safety, Societal Problems and Citizens’ Perceptions. Some articles in Volume 3 focus especially on issues of conceptualisation and measurement of key constructs in the study of security in its broadest meaning (from fear of crime to corruption) some articles present tests of theoretical models derived from theoretical criminology, and finally some articles focus on different institutional reactions towards crime and drug-related problems (e.g. policing, the conflict of interests between private companies and authorities and restorative justice).

Linking property crime using offender crime scene behaviour: A comparison of methods

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2019

This study compared the ability of seven statistical models to distinguish between linked and unlinked crimes. The seven models utilised geographical, temporal, and modus operandi information relating to residential burglaries (n = 180), commercial robberies, (n = 118), and car thefts (n = 376). Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis and by examining the success with which the seven models could successfully prioritise linked over unlinked crimes. The regression‐based and probabilistic models achieved comparable accuracy and were generally more accurate than the tree‐based models tested in this study. The Logistic algorithm achieved the highest area under the curve (AUC) for residential burglary (AUC = 0.903) and commercial robbery (AUC = 0.830) and the SimpleLogistic algorithm achieving the highest for car theft (AUC = 0.820). The findings also indicated that discrimination accuracy is maximised (in some situations) if behavioural domains are utilised rather than individual crime scene behaviours and that the AUC should not be used as the sole measure of accuracy in behavioural crime linkage research.

Under Our Nose: The Use of GIS Technology and Case Notes to Focus Search Efforts

Article

Nov 2016
J FORENSIC SCI

Missing person searches can entail much time, effort, and resources. With scientific data and techniques increasingly available to law enforcement and investigations units, can these tools be used to predict likely areas where persons or remains may be discovered, especially in cases where little to no information about the disappearance is available? A retrospective study of seventy-three (73) cases was conducted in Onondaga County, New York, U.S.A., in order to explore this question. Quantitative (geospatial) and qualitative (investigator notes) data were utilized to determine whether patterns exist that may assist in investigations of recent and “cold” missing person cases. Results showed a majority of cases with relative proximity (<5 miles) between victim last seen (VLS) and body recovered (BR) locations. Furthermore, investigators’ notes demonstrated repeated descriptors reflecting natural or cultural features associated with hidden, clandestine provenance (e.g., near bodies of water, wooded areas). With future external validation of this study, consistent priority areas may be identified as foci of searches; these priority areas ideally should be thoroughly checked/cleared before the search zone is expanded.

Three-Dimensional Agent-Based Model and Simulation of a Burglar's Target Selection

Conference Paper

Sep 2015

Tonkin, M., Woodhams, J., Bull, R., Bond, J. W., & Santtila, P. (2012). A comparison of logistic regression and classification tree analysis for behavioural case linkage. Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, 9, 235-258.

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2012

Much previous research on behavioural case linkage has used binary logistic regression to build predictive models that can discriminate between linked and unlinked offences. However, classification tree analysis has recently been proposed as a potential alternative owing to its ability to build user‐friendly and transparent predictive models. Building on previous research, the current study compares the relative ability of logistic regression analysis and classification tree analysis to construct predictive models for the purposes of case linkage. Two samples are utilised in this study: a sample of 376 serial car thefts committed in the UK and a sample of 160 serial residential burglaries committed in Finland. In both datasets, logistic regression and classification tree models achieve comparable levels of discrimination accuracy, but the classification tree models demonstrate problems in terms of reliability or usability that the logistic regression models do not. These findings suggest that future research is needed before classification tree analysis can be considered a viable alternative to logistic regression in behavioural case linkage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Qualitative Approach to the Criminal Mobility of Burglars: Questioning the "Near Home" Hypothesis

Article

Veronika Anna Poliöenská

The aim of this article is to present a qualitative approach to the study of burglary that addresses distances travelled. Different from previous research, this article introduces the hypothesis that burglars may travel as far as 150 km to their target. Few previous studies have questioned the hypothesis that offenders commit crimes closer to home. The majority of studies concentrating on criminal mobility are based on police data. The data gathered for this study includes interviews with offenders in prisons, and thus provides deeper insight into the offenders' processes of target selection. As a consequence, the qualitative aspect of the data gathering process and analysis opens a discussion on whether there are other possible sources for examination than police data.

The spatial distribution cause analysis of theft crime rate based on GWR Model

Article

Jul 2011

Based on the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, carries a cause analysis for the spatial distribution of theft crime rate. There is a negative correlation between population density and theft crime rate, but the correlation is not significant; the theft crime rate has a positive correlation with road network and police intensity, and the correlation is significant in most streets; there are negative and positive correlation between theft crime rate and average land price, but negative correlation is in most streets and the correlation is not significant. It shows that many social factors have some influence upon the spatial distribution of theft crime rate, and the GWR model is indeed able to analysis the cause of crime rate spatial distribution.

Outbound offending: The journey to crime and crime sprees

Article

Mar 2011
J ENVIRON PSYCHOL

Studies on crime and mobility primarily focus on local crime patterns. The city has long played an important role, whether analysing the offence or the offender. This paper goes beyond city boundaries and discusses ‘outbound offenders’, whose crime trips start in a city, but end outside. It is argued that a substantial proportion of crime trips follow this pattern, indicating that areas other than cities also provide interesting opportunities for property crime. We link outbound offending to a number of features that may explain crime travelling, including the target’s features and offender/offence features. We find that outbound offending mostly occurs towards affluent target regions and near motorways, as such confirming findings from previous research. We also find crime sprees to be indicative for mobile offending. Thus, mobile property offenders tend to compensate for travelled distances, not only by targeting affluent areas and using fast transportation means, but also by committing several successive offences, hereby reducing their relative transportation cost for each offence.

A Theoretical and Practical Test of Geographical Profiling with Serial Vehicle Theft in a UK Context

Article

Dec 2009
BEHAV SCI LAW

Geographical profiling is an investigative methodology sometimes employed by the police to predict the residence of an unknown offender from the locations of his/her crimes. The validity of geographical profiling, however, has not been fully explored for certain crime types. This study, therefore, presents a preliminary test of the potential for geographical profiling with a sample of 145 serial vehicle thieves from the U.K. The behavioural assumptions underlying geographical profiling (distance decay and domocentricity) are tested and a simple practical test of profiling using the spatial mean is presented. There is evidence for distance decay but not domocentricity among the spatial behaviour of car thieves from the U.K. A degree of success was achieved when applying the spatial mean on a case-by-case basis. The level of success varied, however, and neither series length in days nor number of crimes could account for the variation. The findings question previously held assumptions regarding geographical profiling and have potential theoretical and practical implications for the study and investigation of vehicle theft in the U.K. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The road to the robbery: Travel patterns in commercial robberies

Article

Full-text available

Mar 1998

Previous research suggests that the distance travelled from home to the scene of the crime is related to both the characteristics of the offender and of the offence. In a study on robberies in the Netherlands, the relation between distance travelled and characteristics of robbers and robbery was studied. The data set consisted of robberies for which the perpetrators were convicted in 1992. The cases (434 robberies on commercial targets committed by 585 robbers) were drawn from case files provided by the Dutch police to the courts.

Desisting Distance Decay: On the Aggregation of Individual Crime Trips

Article

Full-text available

Aug 1997
CRIMINOLOGY

The distance-decay function suggests a spatial pattern of criminal activity whereby most crimes are committed nearer rather than farther from the criminals' own homes. Presumably, the farther away the target, the lower the chances of crimes. The reason usually offered for this general pattern is an individual one: The costs to the criminal in terms of time, energy, and money increases with distance. We contend that it may be misleading to draw inferences about individuals from the aggregated decay function because it conceals individual variations in ranges of operation. This argument is supported by data randomly generated by the computer that show that even when individual criminals increase their crime rate with increasing distance, a distance-decay function still emerges at the aggregate level. This is not to say that an individual-level distance-decay function does not exist, only that it must be demonstrated by data at the individual level because distance-decay effects can characterize aggregate behavior even in the absence of individual distance decay.

Predicting Burglar Characteristics from Crime Scene Behaviour

Article

Full-text available

May 2004
Int J Police Sci Manag

The aim of the present study was to predict offender characteristics on the basis of crime scene behaviour in urban burglaries. The police files of 633 burglaries in the Finnish Metropolitan Area between 1990 and 2001 were content analysed using a predetermined list of variables. The crime scene behaviour variables were subjected to a principal component analysis. Fourteen factors indicative of different types of burglaries were identified and used to predict the characteristics of the 244 offenders using regression models. Statistically significant predictors of almost all offender characteristics were identified. From a practical point of view, the predictive models could be used in police investigations to narrow down the number of suspects.

Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A Routine Activity Approach

Article

Full-text available

Aug 1979

In this paper we present a "routine activity approach" for analyzing crime rate trends and cycles. Rather than emphasizing the characteristics of offenders, with this approach we concentrate upon the circumstances in which they carry out predatory criminal acts. Most criminal acts require convergence in space and time of likely offenders, suitable targets and the absence of capable guardians against crime. Human ecological theory facilitates an investigation into the way in which social structure produces this convergence, hence allowing illegal activities to feed upon the legal activities of everyday life. In particular, we hypothesize that the dispersion of activities away from households and families increases the opportunity for crime and thus generates higher crime rates. A variety of data is presented in support of the hypothesis, which helps explain crime rate trends in the United States 1947-1974 as a byproduct of changes in such variables as labor force participation and single-adult households.

Predicting Serial Killers' Home Base Using a Decision Support System

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2000

The effectiveness of a geographical decision support tool (Dragnet) forlocating the base of serial offenders was compared across 570 modelscomprised of a range of negative exponential functions, buffer zonecomponents, and normalization parameters. The models were applied to thebody disposal locations within each series for 70 U.S. serial killers. Twonormalization parameters were compared for all functions. The test ofeffectiveness was a specifically defined measure of search cost. Whenapplied to the Dragnet predictions it was found that the specially developednormalization parameter (QRange) produced the optimal search costs. Theoptimal search cost was also found to be for a function that did not includeany buffer zone. The optimal, average search cost across the whole samplewas 11% of the defined search area. Fifty-one percent of the offendersresided in the first 5% of the search area, with 87% in the first 25%. Allresided in the total defined search area. These results support thepotential for operational tools using such procedures as well ascontributing to our understanding of criminal's geographicalbehavior. The applicability to other forms of serial crime is considered.

Fundamentals of Spatial Information Systems

Article

Full-text available

Jan 1998

A textbook on the fundamentals of spatial information and GIS. 17 chapters address; Information systems and geomatics. Spatial relatonships, location, networks. Objects, surfaces, data organisation, time and quality. Geometries for data, referencing systems, projections, line generalisation, fractals, dimensionality. Topology, graphs, areas, ordering. Tesselation, grids, quadtrees. Interpolation, polygon operations, data transformation, addressing. Spatial analysis, attributes, modelling, multiple representation. Information system design, one, two and three-dimensional objects, terrain modelling. Object modelling, data models, metadata. Data retrieval, algebra, relational and peano data structures. Algorithms, indexing, hypermedia, multimedia, spatial knowledge, fuzzy knowledge, artificial intelligence, expert systems, reasoning. Reading lists are provided for each chapter. -from Authors

Offender Profiling and Crime Analysis

Book

May 2013

Peter Ainsworth

A Coefficient of Agreement for Nominal Scales

Article

Apr 1960
EDUC PSYCHOL MEAS

Jacob Cohen

Notes on the geometry of crime.

Article

Jan 1982

Crime occurrence is not the direct result of motivation, but is mediated by perceived opportunity. This, in turn, is influenced by the actual distribution of opportunities, urban form and mobility. It is argued that criminals are not random in their behaviour, so it should be possible to predict the spatial distribution of crime and explain some of the variation in volume of crime between urban areas and between cities by exploring urban structure and how people interact within it. Several hypothetical examples are provided. -after Authors

The criminal range of small-town burglars

Article

Jan 2000

M. Barker

The Psychology of Interrogations and Confessions: A Handbook

Book

May 2008

Gisli Hannes Gudjonsson

This volume, a sequel to The Psychology of Interrogations, Confessions and Testimony which is widely acclaimed by both scientists and practitioners, brings the field completely up-to-date and focuses in particular on aspects of vulnerability, confabulation and false confessions. The is an unrivalled integration of scientific knowledge of the psychological processes and research relating to interrogation, with the practical investigative and legal issues that bear upon obtaining, and using in court, evidence from interrogations of suspects. Accessible style which will appeal to academics, students and practitioners. Authoritative integration of theory, research, practical implications and vivid case illustration. Coverage of topical issues like confabulation, false memory, and false confessions. Part of the Wiley Series in The Psychology of Crime, Policing and Law.

Multivariate Density Estimation. Theory, Practice and Visualization

Article

Jan 1993

The relation of felonies to environmental factors in Indianapolis

Article

R.C. White

Crime and distance: An analysis of offender behavior in space

Article

Jan 1975

Offender Characteristics and Spatial Mobility: An Empirical Study and Some Policy Implications

Article

Jul 1984
Can J Criminol

Burglars on Burglary. Prevention and the Offender

Book

Jan 1984

Suburban Burglary: A Time and a Place for Everything

Article

Jan 1987

Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis.

Article

Jan 1988

Directional Bias in Intra-Urban Migration

Article

Oct 1969

John S. Adams

Notes on the geometry of crime

Chapter

Jan 1981

Atitudes, Personality and Behavior

Book

Jan 2005

Icek Ajzen

The Reasoning Criminal: Rational Choice Perspectives on Offending

Book

Jan 1986

The Kappa Statistic for Establishing Interrater Reliability in the Secondary Analysis of Qualitative Clinical Data

Article

Apr 1992
RES NURS HEALTH

Analysis of extant clinical records is receiving increased emphasis in nursing investigations. Appropriate use of this approach to patient research requires careful attention to data management, including assessment of reliability. Percent agreement, phi, and Kappa all serve as estimates of interrater reliability in the analysis of data. Kappa has particular merit as a measure of interrater reliability; it also has some peculiar problems in implementation and interpretation. The nature and computation of Kappa and its application in analysis of clinical data are discussed.

Urban Structure and Criminal Mobility

Article

Nov 1976

Statistical approaches to offender profi ling

Article

An analysis of spatial patterns in serial rape, arson, and burglary: The utility of the circle theory of environmental range for psychological profiling

Article

Nov 1997
PSYCHIAT PSYCHOL LAW

D Canter and P. Larkin's (1993) Circle Theory of Environmental Range was designed as a means of using the geographical locations of an individual offender's known offences to predict the approximate site of the offender's residential base. Canter and Larkin obtained support for their theory from an investigation of spatial patterns in serial rapists' offences in a few British cities. The present study sought to assess the generality of Circle Theory by examining spatial patterns of serial offences in three crime modalities in the Australian environment Data on 24 serial rapists, 22 serial arsonists, and 27 serial burglars were extracted from the NSW Police Service's files of criminal records. For each case the positions of offences and the domestic base were plotted on a scaled street map. Using a technique defined by Canter and Larkin a circle was constructed to represent the offender's hypothetical criminal range. In most cases of serial rape and arson, the hypothetical criminal range encompassed the known residential base of the offender. This is suggestive of a so‐called marauder pattern of offences for rape and arson, that is, the offender tends to operate from the domestic base and move out in various directions to commit offences. A small minority of rape and arson offences nevertheless exhibited a commuter pattern in which the domestic base falls outside the criminal range. The crime of burglary, on the other hand, showed marauder and commuter patterns in equal proportions A corollary of the marauder model, known as the range hypothesis, also was tested. Results indicated that the domestic base of marauding offenders might be closer to the centre of the criminal range than had been found in Canter and Larkin's British sample. Additionally, no support was found for the proposed existence of a zone around the offender's domestic base in which no offences are committed. Consideration is given to the possible role of geographical and other factors in the spatial distribution of an individual criminal's serial offences. It is concluded that qualified support may be given to the application of Circle Theory to Australian serial crimes, although the marauder model is far from universally predominant.

Introduction To Algorithms

Book

Jan 2001
J OPER RES SOC

Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis Chapman and Hall

Article

Mar 1988

Bernard Walter Silverman

Burglars’ Specialisation: Development of a Thematic Approach in Investigative Psychology

Article

Jul 2004
Behaviormetrika

In this study, the process of burglars' specialisation was examined. 15 sub-categories of burglaries committed by 3,066 burglars were analysed, using a thematic approach. The result of an SSA-I showed that four themes existed in the structure of burglary: 'residential', 'commercial', 'public', and 'industrial/storage'. Also it was found that 'res- idential' and 'commercial' burglaries were the most distinct from each other, providing for two dominant foci for burglaries. The results of POSA also confirmed that most bur- glars specialised in either 'residential' or 'commercial' burglaries. Few were specialised in 'public' or 'industrial/storage' burglaries. In addition, the number of people who spe- cialised in commercial burglaries decreased with the increase of burgling experiences. The psychological processes underlying burglars' specialisation in one theme, or shift from one to another, are discussed. This study shows that the thematic approach offers a method of studying the multidimensional nature of burglars' psychological processes of specialisation.

Maps in Minds: Reflections on Cognitive Mapping

Book

Jan 1977

Differences between burglars and violent offenders

Article

Apr 1994

Information was extracted from police files in Nottinghamshire about 345 burglars and 310 violent offenders involved in cases where nobody (victim, witness or police) knew their identity at the time of the offence. Burglars tended to be unemployed or at school, and overwhelmingly committed their offences for material gain. Violent offenders tended to be under the influence of alcohol and commonly committed their offences because of anger or provocation. While there was a great deal of versatility in offending, there was also some specialization, since half of the burglars had a previous conviction for burglary, and half of the violent offenders had a previous conviction for violence. Overall, 90% of burglars and 80% of violent offenders had a previous conviction of some kind.

The Psychology of Interrogations and Confessions: A Handbook

Chapter

May 2008

The Gudjonsson Suggestibility ScalesSuggestibility And Hypnotic SusceptibilityComplianceAcquiescenceCorrelations Between Suggestibility, Compliance And AcquiescenceSuggestibility and GenderSuggestibility and Ethnic Background Suggestibility and AgeSuggestibility and IntelligenceSuggestibility and MemorySuggestibility and AnxietySuggestibility and ImpulsivitySuggestibility and the Mmpi-2Suggestibility and Sleep DeprivationSuggestibility: Dissociation And Fantasy PronenessSuggestibility and Instructional ManipulationSuggestibility and the Experimenter EffectSuggestibility and Social DesirabilitySuggestibility and Coping StrategiesSuggestibility and AssertivenessSuggestibility and Self-EsteemSuggestibility and Locus Of ControlSuggestibility and Field DependenceSuspiciousness and AngerSuggestibility and Test SettingSuggestibility and Previous ConvictionsPolice Interviewing and SuggestibilityResisters and Alleged False ConfessorsSuggestibility and False ConfessionsSuggestibility and Eyewitness TestimonySuggestibility and Recovered MemoryConclusions

Offender Profiling and Psychological Differentiation

Article

Feb 2000
LEGAL CRIMINOL PSYCH

David Canter

Purpose. The psychological hypotheses that form the foundations for ‘Offender Profiling’ are identified and the research that has tested them is reviewed. Argument. ‘Offender profiling’ is taken to be the derivation of inferences about acriminal from aspects of the crime(s) he or she has committed. For this process to move beyond deduction based on personal opinion and anecdote to an empirically based science, a number of aspects of criminal activity need to be distinguished and examined. The notion of a hierarchy of criminal differentiation is introduced to highlight the need to search for consistencies and variations at many levels of that hierarchy. However, current research indicates that the key distinctions are those that differentiate, within classes of crime, between offences and between offenders. This also leads to the hypothesis ofa circular ordering of criminal actions, analogous to the colour circle, a ‘radex’. The radex model, tested using Multi-Dimensional Scaling (MDS) procedures, allows specific hypotheses to be developed about important constituents of criminal differentiation: Salience. MDS analyses reveal the importance of the frequency of criminal actions as the basis on which the significance of those actions can be established. Models of differentiation. The research reviewed mainly supports distinctions between criminals in terms of the forms of their transactions with their explicit or implicit victims. Consistency. Offenders have been shown to exhibit similar patterns of action on different occasions. The most reliable examples of this currently are in studies of the spatial behaviour of criminals. Inference. Under limited conditions it is possible to show associations between the characteristics of offenders and the thematic focus of their crimes. In general these results provide support for models of thematic consistency that link the dominant themes in an offender's crimes to characteristic aspects of his or her lifestyle and offending history. Implications. Much of what passes for ‘offender profiling’ in practice and as reported in the factual and fictional media has no basis in empirical research. However, there are some promising results emerging in some areas of study. These results are most likely to be of value to police investigations when incorporated into decision support systems and the training of police officers. The results doalso provide new insights into the psychology o crime.

Individual differences in distance traveled by serial burglars

Article

Jan 2004

Brent Snook

This paper uses police data on a sample of 41 serial burglars committed in the city of St John's, Canada and surrounding areas, to examine individual differences in distances travelled. In accord with findings from studies in other locations, results show that serial burglary is a localised activity. Differences between serial burglars in distances they travel are related to the burglars' age, method of transportation and value of property stolen. These results are discussed in terms of existing explanations of distances that serial burglars travel to select targets and implications for police decision-making. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Commuters and Marauders: An Examination of the Spatial Behaviour of Serial Criminals

Article

May 2004

Rebecca Meaney

The demographic characteristics of serial offenders that distinguish between the commuter and the marauder offence styles were examined. Proposed by Canter and Larkin (1993) these two styles represent competing models of criminal spatial behaviour under which the home base plays a role in offence site selection. Data on serial burglars, arsonists and sex offenders were extracted from the criminal records maintained by the NSW Police Service. The offence style of each offender’s crime series was identified in order to relate the offence style to the demographic variables, and to examine the offender’s first and last offences in a series. A commuter offence style was more likely to be adopted by burglars and generally by adult males. A marauding offence style was apparent in sex offenders and metropolitan based offenders. There was a progression in the distance travelled to offend across all crime types, as the last offence was located further from the home base by comparison with the first. These findings serve to validate the conceptual distinction between commuter and marauder offence styles. Several implications for further research are addressed.

The environmental range of serial rapist

Article

Mar 1993

A model of individual sexual offenders' spatial activity was developed based upon 45 British male sexual assaulters who had committed at least two assaults. For each offender a separate map was produced indicating the spatial locations of his offences and residence. A Marauder model and a Commuter model of offender's spatial behaviour was proposed. As an elaboration of the Marauder model, the Circle and Range hypotheses were tested against the sample of offenders. Results of the study support the Marauder model showing that most of the sample (87%) move out from their home base in a region around that base to carry out their attacks. The antithetical Commuter model was not supported within the sample. The Circle and Range hypotheses were supported demonstrating that offenders operate within a distinct offence region (in 91% of cases) and that the distance they travel to offend correlates directly with distances between offences (r = 0.93, p < 0.001). The findings clearly indicate that there is a basis for a model of offence venue choice by individuals within the sample. The present study supports the value of a theory of domocentricity within offenders' lives and offers potential applicability to the solving of crimes.

Human Behaviour and the Principle of Least Effort. An Introduction to Human Ecology

Book

Jan 1949

George Kingsley Zipf

Content Analysis: An Introduction To Its Methodology

Chapter

Mar 1984

Klaus Krippendorff

A Coefficient of Agreement For Nominal Scales

Article

Apr 1960
EDUC PSYCHOL MEAS

Jacob Cohen

A Coefficient of Agreement for Nominal Scales

Article

Jan 1960
EDUC PSYCHOL MEAS

J.A. Cohen

The Geography of Movement

Article

Jan 1975

Content Analysis for the Social Sciences

Article

Apr 1970

Ole R. Holsti

Incluye bibliografía e índice

Density Estimation For Statistics And Data Analysis

Book

Jan 1986

Bernard Walter Silverman

Incluye bibliografía e índice

Probability Density Function Estimation Using Gamma Kernels

Article

Sep 2000
ANN I STAT MATH

Song Xi Chen

We consider estimating density functions which have support on [0, ∞) using some gamma probability densities as kernels to replace the fixed and symmetric kernel used in the standard kernel density estimator. The gamma kernels are non-negative and have naturally varying shape. The gamma kernel estimators are free of boundary bias, non-negative and achieve the optimal rate of convergence for the mean integrated squared error. The variance of the gamma kernel estimators at a distance x away from the origin is O(n −4/5x −1/2) indicating a smaller variance as x increases. Finite sample comparisons with other boundary bias free kernel estimators are made via simulation to evaluate the performance of the gamma kernel estimators.

Absolute pitch: Perception, coding, and controversies

Article

Feb 2005
TRENDS COGN SCI

Recent findings in cognitive neuroscience and cognitive psychology are converging to shed light on the nature of processing, categorization and memory for pitch in humans and animals. Although most people are unable to name or place pitch values in consistent, well-defined categories, as they do for color, stable long-term memory for pitch has been shown in certain animal species, in infants, and in both adult musicians and non-musicians. 'Absolute pitch', the rare ability to label pitches without external reference, appears to require acquisition early in life, and involves specialized brain mechanisms, now partially identified. Research on pitch coding strategies informs wider theories in cognitive science of semantic memory, and the nature of perceptual categories.

Predicting the home location of a serial commercial robber

Article

Mar 2006
FORENSIC SCI INT

Residential location of a serial offender can potentially be predicted by using models created from home to crime site journeys of solved crimes in the area [N. Levine, Journey-to-crime estimation, retrieved 23 October 2003 from http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/NACJD/crimestat/CrimeStatChapter.9.pdf, last visited 1 February 2005]. Aims of this study were: (1) to examine the accuracy of this technique, (2) to explore relation of modus operandi (m.o.) to the distance the crime was committed from home and (3) to analyse whether the accuracy of prediction is enhanced by taking the m.o. into account. Data consisted of 76 commercial robbery series from the Greater Helsinki area. Accuracy of prediction was tested by using leave-one-out technique: the series which the predicting function was applied to was never part of the function used to predict. The functions allowed limiting the area to be searched to 4.7% (Mdn, IQR = 31.0%) of the study area generally, and to 1.0% (Mdn, IQR = 2.6%) when the suspect's spatial behaviour conformed to the circle hypotheses presented by Canter and Larkin [D. Canter, P. Larkin, The environmental range of serial rapists, J. Environ. Psychol. 13 (1993) 63-69]. Significant correlations between m.o. and the length of the journey-to-crime were found, but this information did not enhance accuracy of prediction. Low percentage of marauder style perpetrators in the data gives support to the possible separation of hypotheses of underlying spatial behaviour in instrumental crimes versus crimes of interpersonal violence or arson. Suggestions for development of investigative tools are presented.

Delinquency and distance

Jan 1969
11

Turner

S. Turner, Delinquency and distance, in: M. Wolfgang, T. Sellin (Eds.), Delinquency: Selected Studies, Wiley, New York, 1969, pp. 11-26.

Putting crime in its place: psychological process in crime site selection

D Canter
K Shalev

D. Canter, K. Shalev, Putting crime in its place: psychological process in crime site selection, Paper for Wheredunit? Investigating the Role of Place in Crime and Criminality, Crime Mapping Research Center of the NIJ, San Diego, USA, December 2000.

Urban Travel Demand Modeling: From Individual Choices to General Equilibrium

Jan 1995
0-471

N Oppenheim

N. Oppenheim, Urban Travel Demand Modeling: From Individual Choices to General Equilibrium, Wiley, 1995 ISBN: 0-471-55723-4.

Surfer Surface Mapping System, v. 8.00

Jan 1993
80401-1866

Golden Software
Incorporated

Predicting offender home location in urban burglary series

Abstract

No full-text available

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