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A food "lifeboat": Food and nutrition considerations in the event of a pandemic or other catastrophe

DOI:10.5694/j.1326-5377.2007.tb01471.x
Authors:
Anna Haug
Anna Haug
Anna Haug
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Jennie C Brand-Miller at The University of Sydney
Jennie C Brand-Miller
Olav Albert Christophersen at Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU)
Olav Albert Christophersen
Jennifer O Mcarthur at The University of Sydney
Jennifer O Mcarthur
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Abstract

Influenza pandemics are a real risk and are best managed by self-isolation and social distancing to reduce the risk of infection and spread. Such isolation depends on availability of food of adequate quantity and quality. Australia has one of the most concentrated food supplies of any country, making rapid food depletion more likely in a crisis. Food stockpiling by both authorities and citizens is an important safety precaution that should be given greater media coverage. Food and nutrition guidelines are provided for survival rations in the event of a pandemic or other catastrophe.
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Crisis
A food “lifeboat”: food and nutrition considerations in
the event of a pandemic or other catastrophe
Anna Haug, Jennie C Brand-Miller, Olav A Christophersen, Je nnif e r McArthur, Flavia Fayet and Stewart Truswell
MJA 2007; 187 (11/12): 674-676
Introduc tion — Which foods and in what quantities? — Competing interests — Author details — References
Abstract
Influenza pandemics are a real risk and are best managed by self-isolation and social
distancing to reduce the risk of infection and spread.
Such isolation depends on availability of food of adequate quantity and quality.
Australia has one of the most concentrated food supplies of any country, making rapid
food depletion more likely in a crisis.
Food stockpiling by both authorities and citizens is an important safety precaution that
should be given greater media coverage.
Food and nutrition guidelines are provided for survival rations in the event of a pandemic or
other catastrophe.
arge catastrophes have caused the collapse of empires and civilisations.1 Science and
knowledge may help prevent some catastrophes, but urbanisation and narrowly concentrated
food supplies, climate change and terrorism contribute to considerable risk. Viruses
responsible for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza A (H5N1) or
“bird flu” are among the most immediately identifiable risks. The World Health Organization has stated
that the risk scenario associated with an outbreak of pandemic H5N1 influenza should be considered
more serious than was previously assumed.2
Early self-isolation and social distancing measures are known to be highly effective.3 In the event of a
lethal pandemic, emergency measures such as closing schools, staying home with family and friends,
and avoiding contact with other people (until all have been immunised) will be instrumental in avoiding
infection. People employed in essential services or occupations may be required to reside at their
workplace for the whole period of the crisis. To achieve this type of isolation, sufficient food of
adequate quality and quantity must be available.
The Australian Government and the Australian Food and Grocery Council (AFGC) have been planning
for such a scenario for several years and have advanced plans in place (Russell Neal, AFGC,
Canberra, ACT, personal communication). Nonetheless, the logistics and practicalities of household
food stockpiling should be given greater media coverage. Australia has one of the most concentrated
food supplies of any country, being dominated by two large supermarket chains. These organisations
operate with such efficiency that their logistic chains hold only a few weeks’ supplies (Russell Neal,
AFGC, personal communication). If the supply chain shuts down, or if there is no delivery from central
stores, supermarkets’ stocks will be depleted within 2–4 weeks (Clare Buchanan, Public Relations
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Officer, Woolworths Pty Ltd, Sydney, NSW, personal communication). If domestic stockpiling begins
at this late stage, then depletion will be accelerated.
Food supplies in the home will need to last as long as it takes for vaccine development and
production. For ordinary seasonal influenza vaccines, there is a lag of 6 months or more after a new
virus strain has first been discovered until a new vaccine is available for distribution. For weather-
related catastrophes, food stockpiles might be required for much longer. A destabilised global climate,
where small changes in atmospheric and ocean circulations have major consequences for
temperature, rainfall, wind and storm patterns, may precipitate food stockpile dependence for several
years.4 While long-term food stockpiling could be considered a governmental responsibility, we
suggest that home stockpiling of food to last about 3 months might be done by individual households.
This would allow a window of time for governments to put emergency action plans and food deliveries
in place.
Which foods and in what quantities?
It is logical that the foods to be stockpiled should be staples and well accepted, easy to store, packed
where possible in an inert gas for a longer shelf life, and not dependent on refrigeration. Importantly,
they should be nutrient-dense, providing the recommended macronutrients and micronutrients for all
members of the family.5 Ideally, they can be eaten without cooking, in case gas and electricity fail.
Cost, volume and storage space are further considerations.
A food stockpile should provide an average energy intake of about 9 MJ (2150 kcal) per person per
day in order to avoid significant weight loss. This is near the average intake — men need a little more
than women, while children need less.5 In a home quarantine situation, physical activity is not likely to
be high.
Box 1 shows a food “lifeboat” for one person for 10 weeks, and in Box 2, we provide an example of a
food list that provides one person with 9 MJ per day for 10 weeks and covers all known nutrient
needs. This example was generated using the nutrient analysis software, FoodWorks (Professional
Edition 2007; Xyris Software, Brisbane, QLD), which is based on the composition of Australian foods,
and commonly used by Australian dietitians. The recommended daily intake of specific macronutrients
and micronutrients for adults and children is published by the Australian Government Department of
Health and Ageing.5 Together, these two sources make it possible to compose diets with the
appropriate quantity of nutrients. As most people have no access to detailed nutrient data, we have
developed these examples to show what is needed, and typical of what might be acceptable. We
acknowledge that such food lists are culturally and ethnic-specific, and that other food combinations
are possible.
It would be cheaper and require less storage space to rely on multivitamin tablets rather than canned
fruit and vegetables to cover the requirements of vitamins such as C and A. For this reason, Box 3
shows a food list that covers basic nutrient requirements when taken together with a multivitamin–
mineral supplement. Indeed, some micronutrients do not need to be consumed on a daily basis
because of the capacity of the body to store them (eg, vitamin A). Our calculations allow for cooking
losses. While the foods can be eaten raw, some foods taste better cooked. In the event that the
electricity or gas supply fails, a gas cylinder to fuel a barbeque might make eating more enjoyable.
In Australia, most people have adequate money and storage space to build up their own store of
foods. For those who do not, federal, state and local governments should consider a plan to construct
food stockpiles across the country.
Further suggestions, recipes and guidelines are given on our website
(http://www.foodlifeboat.com.au). This is a university-linked, not-for-profit initiative, developed by
dietitians and public health nutritionists.
1 The food “lifeboat” for one person for 10 weeks
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All the foods listed in Box 2 in the quantities required are displayed. Food courtesy of Woolworths Pty Ltd.
2 Suggested food list of a daily ration for one person (providing 9 MJ
per day) and purchase list for 10 weeks
Food g/day kg/person for 10 weeks
Milk powder, full-fat, dry* 65 4.6
Weet-Bix,† regular (breakfast cereal) 30 2.1
Pasta, regular, dry 20 1.4
Instant noodles 20 1.4
Rice 25 1.8
Dehydrated potato flakes 15 1.1
Tortilla 10 0.7
Biscuit, savoury 15 1.1
Biscuit, wholemeal 20 1.4
Oil, canola 20 1.4
* In case of lac tose intolerance, the intake of dry milk powder m ay be replaced by s oy protein
powder. Alternatively, the milk m ay be fermented. † Sanitarium Australia, Sydney, NSW. ‡ Hormel
Foods C orporation, Austin, Minn, USA. § Nestlé Australia, Sydney, NSW . Kraft Foods Limited,
Melbourne VIC.
Total daily ration provides 80 g protein and 80 g fat com prising 24 g s aturated fat (31% of fat
intake and 10% of energy intake), 20 g polyunsaturated fat (22% of fat intake) and 36 g
monounsaturated fat (47% of fat intake). The daily choles terol intake is 101 mg. Energy intake is
16% from protein, 34% from fat and 50% from c arbohydrate. Recomm ended intakes of all
essential nutrients are provided for wom en and men, except for folate (w hich is not adequate for
women of c hildbearing age, so a folate supplement might be c onsidered).
The cos t of this diet for 10 weeks for one person is about $500. The most expensive items are
milk powder, Weet-Bix,† SPAM,‡ and chocolate.
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* In case of lac tose intolerance, the intake of dry milk powder m ay be replaced by s oy protein
powder. Alternatively, the milk m ay be fermented. † Sanitarium Australia, Sydney, NSW. ‡ Hormel
Foods C orporation, Austin, Minn, USA. § Nestlé Australia, Sydney, NSW . Kraft Foods Limited,
Melbourne VIC.
Total daily ration provides 80 g protein and 80 g fat com prising 24 g s aturated fat (31% of fat
intake and 10% of energy intake), 20 g polyunsaturated fat (22% of fat intake) and 36 g
monounsaturated fat (47% of fat intake). The daily choles terol intake is 101 mg. Energy intake is
16% from protein, 34% from fat and 50% from c arbohydrate. Recomm ended intakes of all
essential nutrients are provided for wom en and men, except for folate (w hich is not adequate for
women of c hildbearing age, so a folate supplement might be c onsidered).
The cos t of this diet for 10 weeks for one person is about $500. The most expensive items are
milk powder, Weet-Bix,† SPAM,‡ and chocolate.
Powdered soup 20 1.4
Sweet chilli sauce 10 0.7
Tomato conce ntrate 10 0.7
Tuna, canned 60 4.2
SPAM,‡ regular (luncheon meat) 40 2.8
Lentils, dry 20 1.4
Peas, green, canned 20 1.4
Three beans mix 50 3.5
Baked beans, canned in tomato sauce 20 1.4
Corn, canned 50 3.5
Sun-dried tomatoes 20 1.4
Milo§ (beverage base) 10 0.7
Seaweed, dried 10 0.7
Raisins 30 2.1
Honey 10 0.7
Almonds 20 1.4
Apricots, dried, raw 20 1.4
Juice, carrot 50 3.5
Juice, orange 50 3.5
Vegemite (yeast extract) 2 0.1
Chocolate 30 2.1
3 A list of simple dry foods that will cover basic energy needs (9 MJ
per day) and most nutrients for one person, assuming multivitamin
tablets are provided, and a purchase list for 10 weeks
Food g/day kg/person for 10 weeks
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* In case of lac tose intolerance, the intake of dry milk powder m ay be replaced by s oy protein
powder. Alternatively, the milk m ay be fermented. † Kraft Foods Limited, Melbourne VIC.
Total daily ration provides 80 g protein and 76 g fat com prising 15 g s aturated fat (20% of fat
intake and 6% of energy intake), 20 g polyunsaturated fat (26% of fat intake) and 41 g
monounsaturated fat (54% of fat intake). The daily choles terol intake is 43 mg. Energy intake is
16% from protein, 32% from fat and 52% from c arbohydrate.
Vitamins C and A would have to be taken as supplements. O therwis e, recomm ended intakes of
all essential nutrients are provided for wom en and men, except for folate (which is not adequate
for women of childbearing age, s o a folate supplement might be cons idered) and iron (which is
provided at a lower level than recomm ended).
In addition, about 2 litres of water per person per day would be required.
This diet costs about $250 for one pers on for 10 weeks . The mos t expensive item s are dry milk
powder and noodles. These food items c ould be packed in airtight pac kages filled with inert gas
of a few kilograms per pac kage, and stored in food stores throughout the country.
Wheat flour, wholemeal, plain 150 10.5
Oats, raw 100 7.0
Oil, canola 25 1.8
Milk powder, dry* 65 4.6
Lentils, dry 30 2.1
Peas, split, green/yellow, dry 40 2.8
Noodles, dry 50 3.5
Vegemite† (yeast extract) 2 0.1
Fruit, mixed, dried 35 2.5
Almonds, raw 40 2.8
Multivitamin–mineral supplement One tablet One box
Competing interests
None ide ntified.
Author details
Anna Haug, PhD, Visiting Associate Professor1
Jennie C Brand-Miller, BSc, PhD, FAIFST, Professor of Human Nutrition1
Olav A Christophersen, Medical Student2
Jennifer McArthur, MHPEd, APD, Dieti tian1
Flavia Fayet, BSc, MNutrDiet, PhD Candidate1
Stewart Truswell, MD, FFPHM, FRACP, Emeritus Professor1
1 University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW.
2 Ragnhild Schibbyes, Oslo, Norway.
Correspondence: J.BrandmillerATmmb.usyd.edu.au
References
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M
World Health Organization. Influenza research at the human and animal interface. Report of a WHO
working group. Geneva: WHO, 2006. http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/influenza
/WHO_CDS_EPR_GIP_2006_3C.pdf (accessed Mar 2007).
2.
Duerr HP, Brockmann SO, Piechotowski I, et al. Influenza pandemic intervention planning using InfluSim:
pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions. BMC Infect Dis 2007; 7: 76-90. <PubMed>
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Chiang JC, Koutavas A. Climate change: tropical flip-flop connections. Nature 2004; 432: 684-685.
<PubMed>
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Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing, National Health and Medical Research
Council, New Zealand Ministry of Health. Nutrient reference values for Australia and New Zealand
including recommended dietary intakes. Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 2006.
http://www.nhmrc.gov.au/publications/synopses/_files/n35.pdf (accessed Jun 2007).
5.
(Received 27 Mar 2007, accepted 11 Sep 2007)
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©The Medical Journal of Australia 2007 www.mja.com.au PRINT ISSN: 0025-729X ONLINE ISSN: 1326-5377
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... Natural or man-made disasters, including disease outbreaks, are often characterized by a scarcity of material resources. This is especially likely to occur if specific aspects of the disaster, such as widespread damage to infrastructure or the fear of contagion, result in restricted mobility of persons and goods [1,2]. In response to this, individuals in affected regions are likely to purchase large quantities of materials that they consider essential, such as food, medications, and items required for child care [3]. ...
... In response to this, individuals in affected regions are likely to purchase large quantities of materials that they consider essential, such as food, medications, and items required for child care [3]. A variety of terms have been used to describe this behavior: when it is considered to be a rational or adaptive response, the terms "stockpiling" or "stocking up" have been used [1], while the terms "hoarding" or "panic buying" have been used when the behavior is excessive or compromises attempts at disaster management [4][5][6]. ...
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Panic buying is a commonly observed response to disasters, and has been widely observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, little is known about the variables influencing this behavior. This review summarizes the existing research in this field and examines its implications for the prevention and control of panic buying. Methodology: All papers published prior to or during the pandemic, providing an empirically tested model of panic buying behavior (Group A) or a theoretical model supported by literature (Group B), were retrieved through a literature search. For papers in Group A, specific risk or protective factors were extracted and tabulated. Overlaps between Group A and Group B models were identified. Study results were analyzed to identify potential strategies which could limit panic buying behavior. Results: It was found that a wide variety of primary (crisis/disease-related), secondary (psychological, informational and sociopolitical), and tertiary (supply chain-related) factors were significantly associated with panic buying, while a single variable–reflective functioning was identified as protective. Conclusions: These results provide valuable leads for strategies aimed at preventing or reducing panic buying, particularly in countries still affected by the pandemic. It is hoped that these findings will be useful from both health administration and academic perspectives.
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... As a result, quarantining at home during the coronavirus pandemic for a long time has a direct effect on a person's life cycle, including eating habits, eating, and physical activity patterns, which can lead to sedentary behavior or low-energy activity. At home, people spend more time in quarantine, sitting, or lying down (9). Decreased level of physical activity has a negative effect on people's physical and mental health. ...
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Based on past experience, in the context of epidemics, the nutritional status of individuals is considered as an indicator of resistance to critical situations. During quarantine, inappropriate eating patterns will increase calorie intake and lead to obesity. Unhealthy eating habits during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have raised the risk of obesity, followed by an increase in the incidence of cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and lung disease. Certain nutrients or food combinations can affect the body by activating the cellular immune system, modifying the production of molecular signaling, and gene expression. Dietary supplements with vitamins, bioactive lipids, flavonoids, and herbs support the human immune system against COVID-19. Since there is still no definitive cure for COVID-19 infection and owing to obligatory symbiosis with this virus in the future, the behavior and attitude as well as the lifestyle of people to maintain their health should change. To achieve the desired goal, in the future, it is increasingly necessary to look for suitable and safe food products to strengthen the immune system against diseases, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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... 13 The best way to maintain an efficient immune system is to prevent nutritional deficiencies that play an important role in activating, communicating, differentiating, or adaptive activation of immune cells. 14 In every pandemic, the state of lockdown leading to internment has unswerving changes on one's way of life, as well as food behaviours, sleeping patterns including types of physical work done. Incarceration leads to an upsurge in sedentary habits involving activities with relatively low energy expenditure carried out mostly in a sitting position. ...
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Background An outbreak of infection with a novel coronavirus (COVID-19 or 2019 Co-V) has posed major risks to global health and economy. This coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many of our everyday habits, including how we function and socialize, how we eat, food preferences and selection. Average intake and status of certain vitamins and minerals can result in reduced immunity, which makes people more susceptible to illnesses and exacerbates malnutrition. The most critical factor in this scenario are individual risk evaluation and management techniques. Until general therapies are administered, the nutritional status of each infected patient should be assessed. The different clinical severity of COVID-19, from asymptomatic, mild, severe, to death, depends on the different metabolic status of the hosts contracted by the virus, which is determined by their diet, diet, age, gender, health, lifestyle and environmental factors. Methodology A broad systematic exploration on studies was steered by means of electronic databases and was limited to articles published in English/English abstract in publications using words like “Health”, “Diet”, “Food”, “Nutritional status”, “COVID 19”, “Pandemic”, “Modifiable contributor”, “Immune System”, “Micronutrients”, “Vitamin” etc. Conclusion Careful individual consideration of potential dietary, nutritional, medical, lifestyle and environmental hazards along with supplementation of the micronutrients, wherever required to help to boost the body's natural defence system by improving all levels of immunity and effective risk management techniques are the appropriate way(s) to handle the COVID-19 pandemic. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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... Based on the nutrient reference values published by the Australian Government, Haug et al. [18] estimated that a food stockpile should provide an average energy intake of about 2150 kcal per person per day to avoid significant weight loss. However, this is near the average intake-men need a little more than women, while children and elderly need less. ...
Revising “Nutritional Reference Values for Feeding at Evacuation Shelters” According to Nutrition Assistance by Public Health Dietitians Based on Past Major Natural Disasters in Japan: A Qualitative Study
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It is important to provide nutritionally adequate food in shelters to maintain the health of evacuees. Since the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has released the “Nutritional Reference Values for Evacuation Shelters” (Reference Values) after every major natural disaster. There is clear evidence, however, that the Reference Values have only been used infrequently. This study aims to revise these guidelines to include the actual situation in the affected areas and the feasibility of the endeavor. This qualitative study uses group interviews with local government dietitians to propose revisions to Japan’s Reference Values. These revisions include the following: issuing Reference Values within 1 week of a disaster, showing one type of values for meal planning for each age group, showing the minimum values of vitamins, upgrading salt to basic components, creating three phases of nutrition (Day 1, Days 1–3, and After Day 4), stipulating food amounts rather than nutrient values, and creating a manual. Local government officials could use the Reference Values as guidelines for choosing food reserves, and dietitians could use them while formulating supplementary nutrition strategies for a model menu in preparation for disasters.
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... The results of the larger RCTs that are presently being conducted will give more conclusive data (17). Vitamin C intake is also recommended to be at least "90 mg daily for men" and "75 mg for women" (18). ...
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  • Sep 2022
A properly balanced diet can improve the immunity system and also prevent various diseases including COVID-19 which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARC-Co2). This review mainly describes dietary guidelines or approaches to build up our immunity as well as better health and protect from corona virus. As we all know one line “Health is Wealth”. So this wealth can be established or secure by optimal diet. Basic food components that are carbohydrates, protein, fat, vitamin and minerals have various important functions to fight against diseases. Most of the documents encourage to consumption of fruits, green vegetables, proteins, whole grains and fluids. Vitamins such as C, E, D, A most important to boost up our immunity. Vitamin C and E also known as natural antioxidants because they protect our body from infection and vitamin C also helps to absorption of iron. Zinc selenium, amino acid and omega 3 fatty acids are necessary to fight COVID-19. Besides this good hygiene practice, proper physical practice or daily work out and proper amount of water intake can improve good health status and prevent chronic illness. Sleep is necessary to heal and rest our body especially during critical illness. Exercise helps to increase the level of white blood corpacell and antibody which helps to fight against infections. This paper discussed the role of these nutrients and specific functions related to improving COVID patients. These nutrients can protect our health from various infectious diseases as well as can decreases mortality and the morbidity rate of COVID-19 patients by improving immunity levels.
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Inverse association of seafood intake with becoming overweight among survivors of the Great East Japan Earthquake
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Obesity is a major health issue after disaster. However, the types of food that affect obesity that increases in response to prolonged evacuation are unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to clarify the association between seafood intake following the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 and becoming overweight within 2 years after that baseline. We followed 4410 Japanese survivors aged ≥18 years (mean age 62.3 years) who were not overweight at baseline. In 2011, all participants completed a self-administered questionnaire regarding food intake and lifestyle and had a subsequent follow-up in 2013. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed. During the 2-year follow-up, 296 participants became overweight. Frequency of fish and shellfish intake in men was significantly and inversely associated with becoming overweight after adjusting for confounding factors. The multivariable-adjusted odds ratios for becoming overweight in men was lower in the group with the highest intake of fish and shellfish (odds ratio 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.06–0.90) than in the group with the lowest intake in Model 1, and the trend was statistically significant in all models. This significant association was observed in temporary housing but not in non-temporary housing. We showed that consuming seafood may have an obesity-suppressing effect in men who suffered from disaster and lived in temporary housing. Seafood might be a key factor in reducing overweight/obesity not only after a disaster but also during a pandemic and in regions with low seafood intake.
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Knowledge regarding Immunity Boosting Measures for Self-care during COVID-19 crisis: Survey of Urban Community in Haryana
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Background: In the wake of the Covid 19 outbreak, entire mankind across the globe is suffering. Enhancing the body’s natural defence system (immunity) plays an important role in maintaining optimum health. We all know that prevention is better than cure. While there is no medicine for COVID-19 as of now, it will be good to take preventive measures which boost our immunity in these times. The COVID-19 (also commonly called coronavirus) pandemic is causing a lot of changes in the daily lives of people around the world. However, there are things that can be done to maintain a healthy lifestyle in these difficult times. First and foremost, everyone is encouraged to follow World Health Organization (WHO) and governmental advice to protect against COVID-19 infection and transmission. Physical distancing and good hygiene are the best protection for everyone against COVID-19. Experiences from previous outbreaks have shown that as an epidemic evolves, there is an urgent need to expand public health activities beyond direct clinical management. The nutritional status of individuals has for long been considered as an indicator of resilience against destabilization. Method: A web-based, survey was conducted using a structured questionnaire to obtain responses from community people during the third week of May 2020. A 30-item survey instrument was developed using course materials available on WHO’s website on emerging COVID-19. The survey covered community people’s socio demographic profile, awareness, information sources, and knowledge related to maintenance of healthy dietary measures for self-care during COVID-19 pandemic. Result: The study findings suggests that majority of the study participants have poor knowledge score (45.25%), average knowledge (25.12%) and 29.63% respondents had adequate knowledge about self-care measures to follow to boosts immunity during COVID 19. Conclusion: The study concludes that participants had considerable poor to average knowledge regarding Immunity boosting measures for self-care. The enhancement in knowledge is greatly required on Immunity boosting measures for self-care to enhance the natural defense system of individual.
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What Drives Societal Collapse?
Article
Full-text available
  • Feb 2001
The archaeological and historical record shows many instances of societal collapse. These events have traditionally been explained by a combination of social, political, and economic factors. In their Perspective, [Weiss and Bradley][1] argue that there is increasing evidence for climate as the primary agent in the collapse of prehistoric and early historic societies. They also consider the possible effects of future anthropogenic climate change. [1]: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/291/5504/609
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Influenza pandemic preparedness plans are currently developed and refined on national and international levels. Much attention has been given to the administration of antiviral drugs, but contact reduction can also be an effective part of mitigation strategies and has the advantage to be not limited per se. The effectiveness of these interventions depends on various factors which must be explored by sensitivity analyses, based on mathematical models. We use the freely available planning tool InfluSim to investigate how pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions can mitigate an influenza pandemic. In particular, we examine how intervention schedules, restricted stockpiles and contact reduction (social distancing measures and isolation of cases) determine the course of a pandemic wave and the success of interventions. A timely application of antiviral drugs combined with a quick implementation of contact reduction measures is required to substantially protract the peak of the epidemic and reduce its height. Delays in the initiation of antiviral treatment (e.g. because of parsimonious use of a limited stockpile) result in much more pessimistic outcomes and can even lead to the paradoxical effect that the stockpile is depleted earlier compared to early distribution of antiviral drugs. Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical measures should not be used exclusively. The protraction of the pandemic wave is essential to win time while waiting for vaccine development and production. However, it is the height of the peak of an epidemic which can easily overtax general practitioners, hospitals or even whole public health systems, causing bottlenecks in basic and emergency medical care.
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Climate change - Tropical flip-flop connections
Article
A long climatic record shows that episodic wet periods in northeastern Brazil are linked to distant climate anomalies. The ocean-atmosphere system can evidently undergo rapid and global reorganization.
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<PubMed> 1. eMJA: A food " lifeboat " : food and nutrition considerations in the ... http://www.mja.com AM World Health Organization. Influenza research at the human and animal interface Report of a WHO working group
  • Jan 2001
  • 609-61053
  • H Weiss
  • Rs Bradley
Weiss H, Bradley RS. What drives societal collapse? Science 2001; 291: 609-610. <PubMed> 1. eMJA: A food " lifeboat " : food and nutrition considerations in the... http://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/187_11_031207/hau1035... 5 of 6 3/03/2010 7:53 AM World Health Organization. Influenza research at the human and animal interface. Report of a WHO working group. Geneva: WHO, 2006. http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/influenza /WHO_CDS_EPR_GIP_2006_3C.pdf (accessed Mar 2007).
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  • MED J AUSTRALIA
  • 1326-5377
Home | Issues | eMJA shop | Terms of use | Terms and Conditions | Classifieds | More... | Contact | Topics | Search The Medical Journal of Australia eMJA ©The Medical Journal of Australia 2007 www.mja.com.au PRINT ISSN: 0025-729X ONLINE ISSN: 1326-5377 eMJA: A food "lifeboat": food and nutrition considerations in the... http://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/187_11_031207/hau1035... 6 of 6 3/03/2010 7:53 AM