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A Leader's Framework for Decision Making

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David J Snowden
David J Snowden
M.E. Boone
M.E. Boone
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Abstract

Many executives are surprised when previously successful leadership approaches fail in new situations, but different contexts call for different kinds of responses. Before addressing a situation, leaders need to recognize which context governs it -and tailor their actions accordingly. Snowden and Boone have formed a new perspective on leadership and decision making that's based on complexity science. The result is the Cynefin framework, which helps executives sort issues into five contexts: Simple contexts are characterized by stability and cause-and-effect relationships that are clear to everyone. Often, the right answer is self-evident. In this realm of "known knowns," leaders must first assess the facts of a situation -that is, "sense" it -then categorize and respond to it. Complicated contexts may contain multiple right answers, and though there is a clear relationship between cause and effect, not everyone can see it. This is the realm of "known unknowns." Here, leaders must sense, analyze, and respond. In a complex context, right answers can't be ferreted out at all; rather, instructive patterns emerge if the leader conducts experiments that can safely fail. This is the realm of "unknown unknowns," where much of contemporary business operates. Leaders in this context need to probe first, then sense, and then respond. In a chaotic context, searching for right answers is pointless. The relationships between cause and effect are impossible to determine because they shift constantly and no manageable patterns exist. This is the realm of unknowables (the events of September 11, 2001, fall into this category). In this domain, a leader must first act to establish order, sense where stability is present, and then work to transform the situation from chaos to complexity. The fifth context, disorder, applies when it is unclear which of the other four contexts is predominant. The way out is to break the situation into its constituent parts and assign each to one of the other four realms. Leaders can then make decisions and intervene in contextually appropriate ways.
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... The sense-making process focuses on the plausibility of the answers and judgments, which goes beyond the logical-deductive process, rather than focusing on its accuracy like contingency theory (Weick 1995). While the sense-making theory has numerous advantages in context-driven problem-solving (Snowden and Boone 2007), it has provided no remedy for converging interpretations that arose from actors' discourses. In other words, not reaching consensus in debate sessions (Hanafizadeh et al. 2020), handling workshops (Berg and Pooley 2013;Snowden 2001), biased judgments (Jackson 2019), and limited analytical ability (Checkland and Poulter 2006), are just a few of challenges of discursive theories like sense-making theory. ...
... In the traditional version of OIPT, Galbraith has assumed that the relationship between IP and organizational performance could be mathematically modeled (specifically in a linear way) (Haußmann et al. 2012). By doing so, the "value" and "communication" dimensions of the situation are neglected since it is not possible to mathematically model the complexity of the social and individual aspects of the context (Snowden and Boone 2007). ...
... These are the domains of flowing knowledge (Snowden 2002). The characteristics of each of these domains will be explained in detail in Section 4. The fifth group, which is called the disorder domain, represents the conditions in which leaders cannot recognize what state they are in (Snowden and Boone 2007). ...
On the Nature of Problematical Situations: Developing Cynefin from an Information Processing Perspective
Article
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  • Jul 2022
The present study contributes to developing a pragmatic constructivist framework for detecting the nature of real-world's problems. To do so, we developed a framework that appreciates factual and logical aspects of reality and considers the values of actors participating in the situation using their communication. This occurs by integrating contingency theory and sense-making theory, which utilize rational and discursive inference mechanisms , respectively. In order to effectively cope with the complexity of understanding problems' nature, it is suggested to use rational and discursive mechanisms in complement. To do so, in this study, organizational information processing theory (OIPT) from contingency theory was utilized to enrich the Cynefin framework stemming from sense-making theory. Then, we used qualitative conceptual analysis to investigate Cynefin papers in a deductive-inductive way to develop the evolved Cynefin framework. The rationality of OIPT improves the analytical capabilities of Cynefin. Additionally, OIPT's contextual factors facilitate structuring debate sessions to reach a consensus. Cynefin helps us extract contextual narrations, which enables the acquisition of new knowledge. OIPT tries to extract actors' existing explicit and tacit knowledge. Finally, the developed framework is validated by utilizing it in the field of business process management and discussing how it helps problem-solvers make sense of their processes.
... While the description of the phenomena of stable, predictable circumstances and unstable, unpredictable circumstances is common across all of the above, later developments in management scholarship have provided additional depth to the explanation. French et al. (2009) in summarising the history of decision theory, suggest the Cynefin framework (Snowden & Boone, 2007) 3 as encapsulating underlying ideas from chaos theory (Lorenz, 1963) and complexity theory (Nicolis & Prigogine, 1977;Prigogine and Stengers, 1984) 4 in mathematics, and creating a metamodel of approaches to decision making, leading to specific recommended actions by managers. The framework is helpful in illustrating how a system can move from ordered to disordered, and from disordered to ordered, in a dynamic way, and for providing recommendations to managers for each stage. ...
... The curved arms are to distinguish from a graph with measurable x and y axes. The 'sense/respond' brackets indicate Snowden's sense-making and action model (see Snowden & Boone, 2007) Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved. ...
... First there is a problem requiring a decision. This sits within a decision context, which shapes the way in which the issue is addressed (Snowden & Boone, 2007). The decision maker may be an individual in a position to shape an initiative (including whether or how to adopt a participative, deliberative approach), and a decision is assumed, by definition, to be something that will lead to an action (French et al, 2009). ...
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... My questions -pointedly in the thirdperson -are not seeking rational responses -rather they direct attention to unseen assumptions and the deeper dynamics at play within us all §CA-5. We know we can predict and control much that is simple, and even some realms that fall into the complicated category (Snowden & Boone, 2007). Yet in the realms of complexity, different conditions apply: ...
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Thesis
Full-text available
  • Mar 2022
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... In this situation, all parties know that there are risks out there that they do not know enough about to identify, plan for, and deal with. Sourcing expert advice, through an IPD form, is necessary for complex or chaotic situations when cause and effect loops are disjointed but where patterns may be discerned (Kurtz and Snowden, 2003;Snowden and Boone, 2007). management teams so that a wider view of problems and opportunities may be appreciated and explored. ...
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... Control entails making changes to a predetermined plan when something unexpected or unforeseen happens, and new opportunities arise. Unpredictability is innate to complex systems (such as construction production) as the behavior of such systems can never be precisely anticipated beforehand (Snowden & Boone 2007). Arbulu et al. (2016) argue that to be effective, production control systems should constantly sense, analyze, and respond to any issues that surface. ...
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... Finally, adaptive leaders need to make sure enough resources are spent on addressing the serious problem. In relation to organisational crises, Snowden and Boone [72] state: "The minute you encounter a crisis, appoint a reliable manager or crisis management team to resolve the issue. At the same time, pick out a separate team and focus its members on the opportunities for doing things differently. ...
A causal model for creating public value (in institutional voids)—the case of Lesvos
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... A practical model, then, functions to equip actors in their action strategies through sense making in their situation, not through dictating a 'correct' response. In situations of social complexity, where phronesis is typically a desirable virtue, cause and effect relationships are notoriously hard or impossible to determine, and this makes certainty impossible when deciding on action; what is indicated in situations of social complexity are decisions based on 'safe-to-fail' provisional actions (Snowden, 2002;Snowden and Boone, 2007); phronetic models should function to inform such decisions. Situations for such models may be indeed coercive, that is where stakeholders "have divergent interests and, if free to express them, would hold irreconcilable values and beliefs" (Jackson, 2020b, p.5). ...
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PROCESSOS RESPONSIVOS NO DESENHO, NA IMPLEMENTAÇÃO E NA AVALIAÇÃO DE PROGRAMAS NA ÁREA DA MELHORIA DA QUALIDADE DA CONVIVÊNCIA ESCOLAR PROCESSOS RESPONSIVOS EN EL DISEÑO, IMPLEMENTACIÓN Y EVALUACIÓN EN EL ÁREA DE MEJORÍA DE LA CALIDAD DE LA CONVIVENCIA ESCOLAR RESPONSIVE PROCESSES IN THE DESIGN, IMPLEMENTATION AND EVALUATION OF PROGRAMS FOR IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF COEXISTENCE IN SCHOOLS
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Full-text available
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RESUMO: Responsividade significa, de forma intencional, criar condições para continuamente escanear e analisar situações e processos, escutar expectativas, opiniões e necessidades das pessoas que recebem ou implementam um programa e, da maneira mais aberta, ágil e potente possível, reagir, modificar ações, incluir novos atores, convidar à participação e construir coletivamente um programa melhor para todos e para cada contexto. O objetivo desse artigo é discutir contribuições do processo responsivo em programas complexos, assim como descrever tipos e níveis de responsividade como os utilizados no programa "A Convivência Ética na Escola", facilitando a transposição para programas de mais larga escala e políticas públicas. ABSTRACT: Responsiveness means, in an intentional way, to create conditions to continuously scan and analyze situations and processes, collect expectations, opinions and necessities from people that receive or implement a program and, in the most open, agile and powerful possible way to react, modify actions, include new agents, invite for participation, and collectively construct a better program for everyone in every context. The objective of this paper is to discuss contributions of responsive processes in complex programs as well as to describe kinds and levels of responsiveness as those used in the program “Ethical Coexistence at School” facilitating the transposition to larger scale programs and to public policies.
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