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Belief in Luck or in Skill: Which Locks People into Gambling?
Abstract and Figures
According to the social axioms framework, people's beliefs about how the world functions (i.e., internal or external locus of control) are related to their social behaviors. Previous researchers have attempted to relate locus of control to gambling behavior, but the results have not been clear-cut. The present study speculated that the effects of perceived control (i.e., belief in luck and belief in skill) on gambling behavior are domain-specific and vary with the type of gambling. A total of 306 adult Macau residents ranging in age from 18 to 65 with casino gambling experience were recruited by going door to door. Empirical data on gambling frequency and perceived control relating to 13 types of gambling were collected. Our results demonstrated that the effects of belief in luck or skill on gambling behavior varied across different gambling categories. Specifically, for football lottery, Chinese lottery, and baccarat, it was not belief in skill but rather belief in luck that was a positive significant predictor of gambling frequency. Only for slot machines and stud poker did belief in skill significantly predict gambling frequency. For the remaining eight gambling categories, neither belief in luck nor belief in skill could predict gambling frequency. Our findings indicate that neither internal nor external locus of control can consistently explain people's gambling behaviors. Instead, which factor plays a greater role in a person's gambling behavior is dependent on the gambling type. Therefore, the finding that not all gambles are created equal might be a promising avenue for further research and treatment approaches.
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... LOC seems to play a significant role in influencing mental well-being (Mirowsky & Ross, 2003). While research investigating the link between this variable and gambling is limited, the available evidence suggests that individuals higher external locus of control may be more susceptible to engaging in excessive gambling behaviour (Thrasher et al., 2011;Zhou et al., 2012). Therefore, it is conceivable that this variable may somehow facilitate pathways that could increase the risk of developing a gambling disorder, and more research is needed to clarify this aspect. ...
... The findings of this and other studies (Thrasher et al., 2011) support the latter perspective. In fact, significant differences were found only for the external LOC dimension, consistent with previous speculations that emphasize believing that one's outcomes during gambling are caused by external forces facilitates the perception of a lack of con- Table 3 Unstandardized Coefficients of the model trol over one's behaviours, predisposing individuals to excessive and problematic gambling (Shumlich et al., 2017;Zhou et al., 2012). Such data were further explored in the moderated mediation model. ...
Gambling disorder is a severe condition that significantly compromises the lives of those affected. In light of this clinical relevance, the literature on the antecedents of this form of addiction is constant and continually evolving. Consistently with this framework, the present research aimed at investigating the role of some risk factors in gambling disorder, with a specific focus on alexithymia, dissociation, and locus of control. The research involved a sample of 290 participants (183 males and 107 females; Mage = 34.43, SD = 14.65) who practice gambling at least occasionally. They completed an online survey including the South Oaks Gambling Screen, Twenty-Items Toronto Alexithymia Scale, Dissociative Experience Scale‐II, and Locus of Control of Behavior. ANOVA and a moderated-mediation model were implemented to analyse the collected data. Results showed that 19.0% of the participants were At Risk and Problem Gamblers, while 27.6% fell into the category of Problematic Gamblers. Problematic Gamblers showed significantly higher levels of alexithymia, dissociation, and external locus of control. Moreover, a significant association between alexithymia and the severity of problematic gambling behaviour was found and was significantly mediated by absorption (a dissociation feature). Furthermore, the external locus of control significantly moderated this indirect effect. The role of gender as a covariate was also investigated. Such findings may offer further insights into the field of clinical research on gambling disorder and may provide useful information for effective clinical practice.
... Participants were required to report their gambling frequency on each of 13 popular gamble games 1 in Macao casino during the previous year. The gamble types were revised from the previous research (Li et al., 2010;Zhou et al., 2012). The sum of gambling times of all games was used as participant's gambling frequency. ...
... Gambling Expenditure. Participants were required to report their average gambling expenditure per month on 13 popular gamble games (Li et al., 2010;Zhou et al., 2012). The reported gambling expenditure by other currency (e.g., MOP, RMB, etc.) were converted to RMB at the prevailing exchange rate. ...
Overconfidence, a widely observed cognitive bias, has been linked to increased gambling motivations and behaviors. However, previous studies have largely overlooked overconfidence under a social comparison context, known as overplacement, i.e., the tendency of individuals to believe that they are better than their similar peers. In the present study, we tested the effect of overplacement on gambling motivations and behaviors though a Pilot Survey of Chinese college students (N = 129) and a Field Survey of Chinese Macao casino gamblers (N = 733). Our results revealed a double-edged sword effect of overplacement: Serving as a risk factor, evaluating one self’s earning ability as higher than others was linked to more gambling motivations (β = 0.18, p = .005) and frequency (β = 0.18, p = .004); Serving as a protective factor, evaluating oneself as happier than others was linked to less gambling motivations (β = − 0.32, p < .001) and problem behaviors (β = − 0.26, p < .001). These findings expand the relationship between overconfidence and gambling from a cognitive bias perspective to a social comparison perspective. Our study not only revealed a typical profile of gambling motivations and behaviors among different demographic groups in Chinese casino gamblers, but also highlighted the importance of considering social factors in the study of the psychological mechanisms of gambling.
... In our study's sample, there were no significant differences between non-problem and problem gamblers on perceived personal luck, indicating no significant relationship between perceived personal luck and problem gambling. Our results are consistent with those of previous authors highlighting that the link between belief in luck and gambling problems, namely gambling frequency, isn't found among poker players (Zhou et al., 2012), which are overrepresented in our sample. However, these findings contradict previous studies highlighting a link between cognitive distortions and problem gambling (Cunningham et al., 2014;Goodie & Fortune, 2013;Orlowski et al., 2020), among strategic gamblers particularly (Mitrovic & Brown, 2009). ...
Gambling is becoming increasingly frequent among the French population, which has led to an increased number of individuals exhibiting problematic gambling patterns. Studies have found links between narcissism and cognitive distortions in relation to problem gambling, specifically among strategic gamblers, but none has tested perceived personal luck as one type of cognitive distortion in this regard. This study’s purpose was to explore the relationship between narcissism, perceived personal luck and problem gambling among strategic gamblers, and to test for the mediating role of perceived personal luck in the relationship between narcissism and problem gambling. A total of 88 regular strategic gamblers were included (mean age = 37.8), with 49 non-problematic gamblers and 39 problematic gamblers. Participants completed the Problematic Gambling Severity Index, the Narcissistic Personality Inventory, and the Personal Luck Usage Scale. Results showed a significant relationship between narcissism and problem gambling, but no significant link between perceived personal luck and problem gambling and no significant mediation effect of perceived personal luck. These results may indicate a strong perception of personal skills compared to a weak perception of personal luck among problem gamblers of strategic games. This study emphasizes the importance of addressing types of gambling and types of cognitive distortions when investigating problem gambling.
... Better than average bias. Based on the research of Zhou et al. (2012) and Huang et al. (2019), the better than average bias of lottery gamblers was examined through five items, such as "I have mastered more skills in the lottery than most other lottery gamblers". In this study, the Cronbach's α coefficient of this questionnaire was 0.93, and the construct validity was χ 2 /df = 4.31, RMSEA = 0.09, TLI = 0.99, CFI = 0.98, NFI = 0.99. ...
Positive illusions and winning exposure are key factors leading to problem lottery gambling, but few studies have examined the relationships between them. 402 Chinese lottery gamblers was conducted with the Winning Exposure Questionnaire, the Positive illusion Questionnaire, the Winning Experience Questionnaire, and the Social and Economic Status Questionnaire to investigate the relationship between winning exposure and positive illusions as well as the moderating role of winning experience and socioeconomic status. The results showed that winning exposure can significantly and positively predict the positive illusions (optimism bias, better than average bias, and illusion of control) of lottery gamblers. The highest winning amount and subjective socioeconomic status significantly moderated the relationship between winning exposure and optimism bias. That was to say, for lottery gamblers with smaller maximum winning amount and lower subjective socioeconomic status, the association between winning exposure and optimism bias was stronger. Furthermore, the moderating effect of highest winning amount in the relationship between winning exposure and better than average bias, and the moderating effects of occupational status and subjective socioeconomic status in the relationship between winning exposure and illusion of control were marginally significant.
... Sandhu, Collins, & Fugelsang, 2010); it also mitigates the fear of missing out on combinations on other lines that were not bet on. Furthermore, the upswings in fortune may help convince players in low volatility games that the game can be beaten, with the upswing being misattributed to either skilled play or an unconnected "lucky" action, as imagined by the individual player, or that they are "learning" the machine (e.g., Ohtsuka, 2013;Zhou et al., 2012). It is noteworthy that in addition to EGMs this potential consequence of low volatility structure can be extended to other commercially available low volatility games (e.g., baccarat, blackjack) which often have a lower house edge (higher RTP), and which also require higher minimum bets (Turner, 2011a). ...
Objective and Method
Electronic gambling machines are a prominent cause of significant gambling harms globally. We use simulations of a simplified video poker game to show how changes in game volatility, defined primarily by the size of the main prize, affect patterns of wins and losses as well as winning streaks.
Results
We found that in low- and medium volatility games the proportion of winning players quickly drops to zero after about 30 h of play, while in the high volatility game 5% of players are still winning after playing for 100 h. However, the proportion of winning streaks was significantly higher in the low- and medium volatility games compared with high volatility: the simulated players were on a winning streak about 26.3, 25.6 and 18% of the time in the low-, medium- and high volatility games, respectively.
Conclusions
Fast-paced video poker with varying volatility levels but identical return-to-player rates and win frequencies can yield highly different result patterns across individuals. These patterns may be counter-intuitive for players and difficult to realize without simulations and visualizations. We argue that the findings have relevance for responsible gambling communication and for building a better understanding of how cognitive biases influence gambling behaviour.
... Existing studies have already shown that consumers' luck beliefs induced positive preferences for decisionmakings with uncertain information. For example, consumers with luck beliefs held positive emotional biases towards risks, demonstrated by their increasingly risky behaviors, frequent and diversified gambling, and repeated lottery purchases (Lim & Rogers, 2017;Wohl & Enzle, 2003;Zhou et al., 2012). This paper studied the influence of luck perception on consumer decision-making. ...
Regarding luck as a supernatural force, the marketers always apply the perception of luck for marketing activities. Based on the theory of supernatural agency, this paper based on the perspective of psychological security, designed 4 experiments, and validated the effect of luck perception on the construal levels of consumers. Experiment 1 and 2 summarized that consumers with lucky perception tended to represent objects by high-level construal and prefer products with such features, while those with unlucky perception tend to represent objects by low-level construal and prefer products with corresponding features. Experiment 3 verified the mediating role of psychological security in affecting the luck perception on construal level. Experiment 4 examined the moderating role of power among consumers with high-power, finding the perception of luck to exert no significant effect on their construal levels, while for consumers with low-power, the perception of luck cause them to prefer advertisements with high-level construal features.
... Indeed, regular and experienced poker gamblers in the current study seemed to have a scientific understanding of luck (whether good or bad) and chance on the one hand, and gambling by learning the odds and statistics of winning and losing hands in poker on the other hand. A good understanding of mathematical concepts such as variance appears to be related to a deeper understanding of the concept of luck (Mitrovic & Brown, 2009;Zhou et al., 2011). This perception and understanding of luck could thus have an effect on the frequency and intensity of emotions induced by losses, for example, and therefore on decision-making and the quality of the game played. ...
Poker is a game of chance and strategy in which the situations that arise and the outcome can cause gamblers to experience intense emotions, both pleasant and unpleasant, which can alter decision-making and lead to loss of control. This qualitative study aimed to identify elements that could contribute to better emotional regulation and gambling practices among experienced poker gamblers. A thematic analysis was carried out on 21 interviews conducted with male poker gamblers. It revealed four main themes: a confrontation with intense feelings (tilt, chasing, adrenaline), learning about and around the game (rules, jargon, knowledge of probability and statistics), a change in perception of poker (game as a sport, competition and improvement motives), and emotional detachment from the game over time. Acquiring knowledge about the game, attributing a word to each of the unfolding events, approaching poker in a scientific and serious manner, and introspection to improve poker practice seem to help poker gamblers regain control after being in the grip of intense emotions. This study provides access to the path taken by poker gamblers to respond to their desire to continue the gambling activity and to no longer be plagued by intense feelings.
In this article, we attempt to distinguish between the properties of moderator and mediator variables at a number of levels. First, we seek to make theorists and researchers aware of the importance of not using the terms moderator and mediator interchangeably by carefully elaborating, both conceptually and strategically, the many ways in which moderators and mediators differ. We then go beyond this largely pedagogical function and delineate the conceptual and strategic implications of making use of such distinctions with regard to a wide range of phenomena, including control and stress, attitudes, and personality traits. We also provide a specific compendium of analytic procedures appropriate for making the most effective use of the moderator and mediator distinction, both separately and in terms of a broader causal system that includes both moderators and mediators. (46 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
This paper reports experimental and field studies of risky investment. Evolution by natural selection should have equipped humans with a kith-and-kin rationality for investment decisions while sexual selection entailed a higher expectation for investments from a man than from a woman. In Study 1, participants estimated how a typical man or woman in the same age cohort would allocate lottery money to self and other possible recipients. The results showed that (1) the degree of kith-and-kin relatedness largely determined the amount of investment. (2) An imagined typical man was more generous than an imagined woman. However, male participants were more selfish than female participants. (3) Women were more accurate in estimating the other sex's investment distribution than men. (4) Women invested in more recipients, thus had a larger scope of social sharing. Study 2 tested the evolutionary psychological hypothesis that differential parental investment in sons and daughters would be affected by the family's relative rather than absolute wealth. Using breastfeeding and interbirth interval as the measurements of parental investment, the results showed that (1) real household income affected overall amount of parental investment irrespective of the sex of a child; and (2) relative wealth perceived by parents against their neighborhood households affected differential investment in sons versus daughters. Parental investment in sons is viewed as a riskier prospect than investment in daughters since men have a universally higher variance in wealth and reproduction than women. The two studies suggest that human decision rationality is bounded by social relations and adapted to relative wealth conditions.
Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to examine the degree to which the statistical power of moderated multiple regression (MMR) to detect the effects of a dichotomous moderator variable was affected by the main and interactive effects of (a) predictor variable range restriction, (b) total sample size, (c) sample sizes for 2 moderator variable-based subgroups, (d) predictor variable intercorrelation, and (e) magnitude of the moderating effect. Results showed that the main and interactive influences of these variables may have profound effects on power. Thus, future attempts to detect moderating effects with MMR should consider the power implications of both the main and interactive effects of the variables assessed in the present study. Otherwise, even moderating effects of substantial magnitude may go undetected.
Interest in the problem of method biases has a long history in the behavioral sciences. Despite this, a comprehensive summary of the potential sources of method biases and how to control for them does not exist. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to examine the extent to which method biases influence behavioral research results, identify potential sources of method biases, discuss the cognitive processes through which method biases influence responses to measures, evaluate the many different procedural and statistical techniques that can be used to control method biases, and provide recommendations for how to select appropriate procedural and statistical remedies for different types of research settings.
