Context
The World Health Organization defines preterm birth as birth at less
than 37 completed gestational weeks, but most studies have focused on very
preterm infants (birth at <32 weeks) because of their high risk of mortality
and serious morbidity. However, infants born at 32 through 36 weeks are more
common and their public health impact has not been well studied.Objective
To assess the quantitative contribution of mild (birth at 34-36 gestational
weeks) and moderate (birth at 32-33 gestational weeks) preterm birth to infant
mortality.Design, Setting, and Participants
Population-based cohort study using linked singleton live birth–infant
death cohort files for US birth cohorts for 1985 and 1995 and Canadian birth
cohorts (excluding Ontario) for 1985-1987 and 1992-1994.Main Outcome Measures
Relative risks (RRs) and etiologic fractions (EFs) for overall and cause-specific
early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (age 7-27 days), postneonatal
(age 28-364 days), and total infant death among mild and moderate preterm
births vs term births (at ≥37 gestational weeks).Results
Relative risks for infant death from all causes among singletons born
at 32 through 33 gestational weeks were 6.6 (95% confidence interval [CI],
6.1-7.0) in the United States in 1995 and 15.2 (95% CI, 13.2-17.5) in Canada
in 1992-1994; among singletons born at 34 through 36 gestational weeks, the
RRs were 2.9 (95% CI, 2.8-3.0) and 4.5 (95% CI, 4.0-5.0), respectively. Corresponding
EFs were 3.2% and 4.8%, respectively, at 32 through 33 gestational weeks and
6.3% and 8.0%, respectively, at 34 through 36 gestational weeks; the sum of
the EFs for births at 32 through 33 and 34 through 36 gestational weeks exceeded
those for births at 28 through 31 gestational weeks. Substantial RRs were
observed overall for the neonatal (eg, for early neonatal deaths, 14.6 and
33.0 for US and Canadian infants, respectively, born at 32-33 gestational
weeks; EFs, 3.6% and and 6.2% for US and Canadian infants, respectively) and
postneonatal (RRs, 2.1-3.8 and 3.0-7.0 for US and Canadian infants, respectively,
born at 32-36 gestational weeks; EFs, 2.7%-5.8% and 3.0%-7.0% for the same
groups, respectively) periods and for death due to asphyxia, infection, sudden
infant death syndrome, and external causes. Except for a reduction in the
RR and EF for neonatal mortality due to infection, the patterns have changed
little since 1985 in either country.Conclusions
Mild– and moderate–preterm birth infants are at high RR
for death during infancy and are responsible for an important fraction of
infant deaths.
The World Health Organization defines preterm birth as a gestational
age at birth of less than 37 completed gestational weeks.1
Preterm birth is recognized as a major public health problem by both clinicians
and researchers because it is the leading cause of infant mortality in industrialized
countries and also contributes to substantial neurocognitive, pulmonary, and
ophthalmologic morbidity.2- 5
Caring for preterm infants also incurs large health care expenditures.6 Most studies of morbidity and mortality among preterm
infants have focused on those born very preterm, ie, at gestational ages less
than 32 weeks.7- 17
For infants born at 32 through 36 gestational weeks, the risks are much lower,
especially with recent advances in neonatal intensive care.7,16
On the other hand, from a public health perspective, births at gestational
ages of 32 through 36 weeks are much more common than those at less than 32
gestational weeks.7,18 Thus it
is important to distinguish absolute risk both from relative risk (RR) and
from public health impact (ie, etiologic fraction [EF]).
The RR indicates how much more frequently a given outcome occurs in
persons with vs those without a risk factor. The EF is the proportion of all
cases of the outcome occurring in a given population that can be attributed
to exposure to the risk factor; it is sometimes referred to as the population-attributable
risk.19 Because the EF is a function of both
the RR and the population prevalence of exposure to the risk factor, common
risk factors account for much higher EFs than do rare risk factors. For example,
an anomalous coronary artery is associated with a very high RR of myocardial
infarction but (owing to its extreme rarity) a very low EF. By contrast, cigarette
smoking, which is highly prevalent, accounts for an appreciable portion of
myocardial infarctions despite its modestly elevated RR.
We hypothesized that mild and moderate preterm births, which we define
as live births at 34 through 36 and 32 through 33 completed weeks of gestation,
respectively, are associated with an increased risk of infant mortality relative
to term births. We further hypothesized that mild and moderate preterm births
account for an important fraction of infant deaths. In particular, we suspected
that the increased RRs and substantial EFs for infant death would be most
pronounced for specific groups of causes (infection, sudden infant death syndrome
[SIDS], and external causes such as unintentional injuries and abuse) and
would be concentrated in the postneonatal rather than the neonatal period.
Finally, we hypothesized that these increased risks would be observed in both
the United States and Canada and would have diminished only slightly over
time.