Article

Using Web Search Query Data to Monitor Dengue Epidemics: A New Model for Neglected Tropical Disease Surveillance

Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Harvard-Massachusetts Institute of Technology Division of Health Sciences and Technology, Boston, Massachusetts,USA.
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases (Impact Factor: 4.45). 05/2011; 5(5):e1206. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001206
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT

A variety of obstacles including bureaucracy and lack of resources have interfered with timely detection and reporting of dengue cases in many endemic countries. Surveillance efforts have turned to modern data sources, such as Internet search queries, which have been shown to be effective for monitoring influenza-like illnesses. However, few have evaluated the utility of web search query data for other diseases, especially those of high morbidity and mortality or where a vaccine may not exist. In this study, we aimed to assess whether web search queries are a viable data source for the early detection and monitoring of dengue epidemics.
Bolivia, Brazil, India, Indonesia and Singapore were chosen for analysis based on available data and adequate search volume. For each country, a univariate linear model was then built by fitting a time series of the fraction of Google search query volume for specific dengue-related queries from that country against a time series of official dengue case counts for a time-frame within 2003-2010. The specific combination of queries used was chosen to maximize model fit. Spurious spikes in the data were also removed prior to model fitting. The final models, fit using a training subset of the data, were cross-validated against both the overall dataset and a holdout subset of the data. All models were found to fit the data quite well, with validation correlations ranging from 0.82 to 0.99.
Web search query data were found to be capable of tracking dengue activity in Bolivia, Brazil, India, Indonesia and Singapore. Whereas traditional dengue data from official sources are often not available until after some substantial delay, web search query data are available in near real-time. These data represent valuable complement to assist with traditional dengue surveillance.

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    • "First, online surveillance offers immediate insights into the present status of disease. That is, online surveillance may " predict the present "[48]without the reporting lags associated with complicated reporting procedures in public health bureaucracies[44]. Second, online surveillance may overcome the weaknesses of traditional surveillance systems, such as poor sensitivity to new diseases[49]and the lack of skills and equipment required for early disease detection[50]. "
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    • "In 2007, Venezuela, alone, reported more than 80,000 cases, including more than 6,000 cases of DHF. Google dengue trends provides the daily updates of current dengue fever activity for 10 countries, which enables earlier detection of outbreaks and epidemics and public health officials to mobilize outbreak containment measures in a timely manner (Chan et al., 2011). Recent outbreaks of dengue fever have been reported from many countries in Central and South America and Mexico, as well as various regions in Southeast Asia; dengue is endemic in these areas and should always be considered in the differential diagnosis of acute febrile illness, especially in travelers returning from that area (Communicable Diseases Communiqué, 2012). "
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    • "Numerous studies have examined how Internet searches can "predict the present", meaning that search volume correlates with contemporaneous events [18-20]. Specifically in the case of influenza, search volume was shown to estimate flu activity, which was not officially reported until two weeks later, and despite unknown flu status of the searchers. "
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