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Turkey and the EU: On the Costs and Benefits of Integrating a Small but Dynamic Economy

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Abstract

Seen on the whole, one of the biggest economic challenges for Turkey is to make its recent macroeconomic stabilisation sustainable. Of utmost importance in this respect is a significant catch-up in quality of institutions and governance to the EU level. Although starting with a small GDP, Turkey could significantly contribute to high growth rates of the EU as a whole (as already aimed at by the Lisbon agenda). The analysis of Turkey's human resources has identified a large gap in human captial formation and its centra role for backlogs in convergence between Turkey and the EU. Hence, one important policy conclusion would be to link up pre-accession financial support with the accumulation of human capital instead of the usual support for standard infrastructure projects. Another example would be in the area of trade integration. For instance, enhancing the currently existing customs union with Turkey in the direction of free trade in services would generate benefits to Turkey and to the EU which should not be underestimated. Finally, one could imagine the implementation of joint and specific transition policies in the areas of energy, agriculture and education. If Turkey is able to stick strictly to its reform-oriented path of modernisation, nothing can prevent us from expecting enormous benefits from the integration of two regions with significantly different factor endowments — a straightforward economic insight not often well understood by politicians or the public.

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... In 1996, the Customs Union Agreement was put into action giving Turkish manufacturers duty-free and quota-free access to the European Union. In 1999, the European Union recognized Turkey as a candidate for EU membership (Stokes, 2004), and in December 2004, the European Council started negotiations with Turkey with respect to full membership to the EU (Belke, 2004). The above similarities and differences allow for a control of the economic and living conditions of these two cultures and highlight the differences in geography, religion, politics and culture. ...
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This paper calculates indices of central bank autonomy (CBA) for 163 central banks as of end-2003, and comparable indices for a subgroup of 68 central banks as of the end of the 1980s. The results confirm strong improvements in both economic and political CBA over the past couple of decades, although more progress is needed to boost political autonomy of the central banks in emerging market and developing countries. Our analysis confirms that greater CBA has on average helped to maintain low inflation levels. The paper identifies four broad principles of CBA that have been shared by the majority of countries. Significant differences exist in the area of banking supervision where many central banks have retained a key role. Finally, we discuss the sequencing of reforms to separate the conduct of monetary and fiscal policies. IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 263–296. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.25; published online 23 September 2008
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The paper explores the readiness of the Turkish banking sector for integration into the European Union. We address the issue from four different angles. First, we review the present structure and health of the sector, including the state of the regulatory framework, providing where possible a comparative perspective with the larger EU accession countries. Second, we look at the sector's financial solidity in 2003, with a view to gauging its readiness to adapt to a more challenging banking environment. Third, we look at the present obstacles to financial deepening and identify the most pressing issues that seem to hinder the sector's growth. Fourth, we explore issues of productivity and efficiency in the sector. In a final section, we ask the question of whether the Turkish banking sector is or will be ready in due time for EU accession and formulate some policy recommendations. We conclude that in 2004 the Turkish banking sector compares well with those of the new members of the EU. The major source of financial instability in the past was macroeconomic instability and government involvement. At present Turkey is closer to achieving macro-stability than ever in the past, and the government is reducing its direct involvement. Major strides have been accomplished after the crisis of 2001 in cleaning up a very nontransparent and politicized banking environment and in upgrading the regulatory structure to EU standards. Clearly, the job is not finished yet, with the challenge of introducing risk-management based on Basle II and of bringing the capital market to EU standards. Further consolidation and mergers with foreign partners will be inevitable. Should EU integration become a concrete vision of the future, macro stability has great chances to become rooted in Turkey and the banking sector will quickly move to EU standards, long before any accession date.
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This study introduces a prototype model for evaluating policies to abate agricultural nutrients in the Baltic Sea from a Finnish national point of view. The stochastic simulation model integrates nutrient dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus in the sea basins adjoining the Finnish coast, nutrient loads from land and other sources, benefits from nutrient abatement (in the form of recreation and other ecosystem services) and the costs of agricultural abatement activities. The aim of this study is to present the overall structure of the model and to demonstrate its potential using preliminary parameters. The model is made flexible for further improvements in all of its ecological and economic components. Results of a sensitivity analysis suggest that investments in reducing the nutrient runoff from arable land in Finland would become profitable only if Finland’s neighbors in the northern Baltic committed themselves to similar reductions. Environmental investments for improving water quality yield the highest returns for the Bothnian Bay and the Gulf of Finland, and smaller returns for the Bothnian Sea. In the Bothnian Bay, the abatement activities become profitable because the riverine loads from Finland represent a high proportion of the total nutrient loads. In the Gulf of Finland, this proportion is low, but the size of the coastal population benefiting from improved water quality is high.
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The issues of privatization (and sometimes deregulation) have been reviewed in a large literature on the various aspects of privatization, that has emphasized the potential efficiency gains. Hence, the goal of this paper is twofold: First to provide some theoretical reasoning why privatization is useful as well as profitable for an economy and second to empirically present the extent of privatization in Austria and other European Union countries. Therefore, the reasons why privatization is necessary are elaborated. Then the specific pattern privatization proceeds for Austria relative to other EU and OECD countries is presented. Moreover, some important idiosyncratic extensions for the Austrian case are elaborated. We argue that in the Austrian case, any discussion of privatization cannot be reduced to observing cash flows, the employment performance and the stock-exchange ratings of the privatized formerly state-owned enterprises. Since polito-economic aspects relating to income distribution and ideology play an important role in explaining the way, the extent, the speed and the economic effects of privatization, they have to be considered as well.
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Die Debatte über die EU-Beitrittsperspektive der Türkei erfolgt kontrovers anhand verschiedener Argumentationslinien. Zentrale Fragen sind vor allem, wie die europäische Identität zu bestimmen ist und ob die Türkei grundsätzlich der EU beitreten sollte. Beide Aspekte werden in diesem Gutachten nicht behandelt. Im Zentrum der Studie stehen vielmehr die Bewertung der Türkei hinsichtlich der politischen und ökonomischen Beitrittskriterien (Kopenhagen-Kriterien) sowie die Auswirkungen ihres EU-Beitritts. Um die relative Beitrittsreife der Türkei zu bestimmen, werden auch die im Beitrittsprozess der neuen östlichen Mitglieds- bzw. Kandidatenländer gewonnenen Erfahrungen zum Vergleich herangezogen.
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This paper calculates indices of central bank autonomy (CBA) for 163 central banks as of end-2003, and comparable indices for a subgroup of 68 central banks as of the end of the 1980s. The results confirm strong improvements in both economic and political CBA over the past couple of decades, although more progress is needed to boost political autonomy of the central banks in emerging market and developing countries. Our analysis confirms that greater CBA has on average helped to maintain low inflation levels. The paper identifies four broad principles of CBA that have been shared by the majority of countries. Significant differences exist in the area of banking supervision where many central banks have retained a key role. Finally, we discuss the sequencing of reforms to separate the conduct of monetary and fiscal policies. IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 263–296. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.25; published online 23 September 2008
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In this paper, the relationship between the degree of centralisation and the distributive outcomes in European schemes of social assistance is investigated. For this purpose, a scheme of classification suitable for grouping the EU15 schemes except for Luxembourg according to features related to centralisation is established and an indicator for centralisation is developed. Subsequently, on the basis of LIS data the effectiveness and efficiency in reducing poverty through social assistance payments are calculated for five selected EU systems and the linkage of their distributive impacts to the degree of centralisation is examined.
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This paper analyses the distributive impacts of various regulatory and institutional settings of European schemes of social assistance. For this purpose, two sets of classifications of European schemes of social assistance are introduced that classify the systems according to regulatory arrangements and degree of centralisation, respectively. Subsequently, the distributive impacts of five selected EU systems are calculated on the basis of LIS data and their relationship to class assignment is investigated.
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We present a dynamic model of jurisdiction formation in a society of identical people. The process is described by a Markov chain that is defined by myopic optimization on the part of the players. We show that the process will converge to a Nash equilibrium club structure. Next, we allow for coordination between members of the same club,i.e. club members can form coalitions for one period and deviate jointly. We define a Nash club equilibrium (NCE) as a strategy configuration that is immune to such coalitional deviations. We show that, if one exists, this modified process will converge to a NCE configuration with probability one. Finally, we deal with the case where a NCE fails to exist due to indivisibility problems. When the population size is not an integer multiple of the optimal club size, there will be left over players who prevent the process from settling down. We define the concept of an approximate Nash club equilibrium (ANCE), which means that all but k players are playing a Nash club equilibrium, where k is defined by the minimal number of left over players. We show that the modified process converges to an ergodic set of states each of which is ANCE.
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Owing to the EU-Turkish customs union, there is already a considerable degree of convergence between Turkey and the EU in the area of trade. In fact, Turkey is the only candidate country that has a customs union with the EU. At least with respect to the trade in goods, Turkey is almost part of the Single Market. The challenge of enhancing the present state of trade integration could be approached in two ways. First, the customs union could be deepened by refining the arrangements and addressing its shortcomings. Secondly, the degree of trade integration could be enhanced by incorporating areas such as services and agriculture – thus widening the customs union – which is also explored in detail. The paper concludes that the Turkish-EU customs union has been a technical success overall and functioned on a sound basis. Nevertheless, both parties should work flexibly towards eliminating trade defence measures and forging a more comprehensive framework of trade integration.
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This paper aims at examining the impact of different transfers on income distribution in five Western European countries by carrying out an empirical analysis using generalized Lorenz curve comparisons. The results obtained are then investigated by relating them to a classification of European social transfer systems. We conclude that clear differences can be found with regards to transfer arrangements and underlying strategies. This does not necessarily mean that these differences result in clearly distinct transfer rankings for every country: some transfers like unemployment insurance and disability benefits have an obvious impact in countries with quite different underlying strategies and transfer arrangements.
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This paper calculates indices of central bank autonomy (CBA) for 163 central banks as of end-2003, and comparable indices for a subgroup of 68 central banks as of the end of the 1980s. The results confirm strong improvements in both economic and political CBA over the past couple of decades, although more progress is needed to boost political autonomy of the central banks in emerging market and developing countries. Our analysis confirms that greater CBA has on average helped to maintain low inflation levels. The paper identifies four broad principles of CBA that have been shared by the majority of countries. Significant differences exist in the area of banking supervision where many central banks have retained a key role. Finally, we discuss the sequencing of reforms to separate the conduct of monetary and fiscal policies. IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 263–296. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.25; published online 23 September 2008
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The paper decomposes GDP both in terms of level per capita and growth rate, so as to identify the sources of income differences and of economic growth for all EU27 member states. This accounting approach has multiple advantages, although a number of substantial caveats should be borne in mind when interpreting the results. In particular, the detailed accounting approach helps distinguish exogenous from policy-influenced growth drivers. The combination of lower per-hour productivity and lower labour utilisation is the cause of relatively low per capita GDP in euro area and EU15 countries, while weak productivity remains the main concern in the new member states. GDP growth rate has been broken down into 12 items, including an indicator of labour quality, based upon the composition of employment by educational attainment.
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This paper calculates indices of central bank autonomy (CBA) for 163 central banks as of end-2003, and comparable indices for a subgroup of 68 central banks as of the end of the 1980s. The results confirm strong improvements in both economic and political CBA over the past couple of decades, although more progress is needed to boost political autonomy of the central banks in emerging market and developing countries. Our analysis confirms that greater CBA has on average helped to maintain low inflation levels. The paper identifies four broad principles of CBA that have been shared by the majority of countries. Significant differences exist in the area of banking supervision where many central banks have retained a key role. Finally, we discuss the sequencing of reforms to separate the conduct of monetary and fiscal policies. IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 263–296. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.25; published online 23 September 2008
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In this paper we focus on cycles and trends of some macroeconomic and housing market variables representative of the French economy. In a first part, we empirically show that cycles in the housing sector, measured by housing prices, housing starts, building permits, sales or residential investment, are strongly correlated to GDP cycles with a lead lying between of one and four quarters, suggesting thus that a monitoring of housing fluctuations could bring useful information for macroeconomic forecasting. Interestingly, this result is robust to the various considered approaches. Moreover, it seems that the housing sector long-term trend possesses its own dynamics, quite different from the global French economic activity. Thus, in a second part, we review various structural factors that could drive housing market developments in France in the future.
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This paper examines the relationship of Turkey with the European Union and its predecessor. It addresses the following questions: Have the requirements of economic integration helped or hindered the process of economic reform in Turkey? Could greater assurance and support from Europe have impeded or enhanced the reform process? Could an alternative sequence of steps towards integration have rendered the process more productive? What role did Turkey's political and economic characteristics play in the process? The paper argues that there may have been a mismatch between the deals offered by the EC/EU and Turkey's needs and capabilities, which ruled out full compliance with those deals. Specifically, the opening of Turkish markets to increased foreign competition in the absence of effective fiscal and monetary institutions may have resulted in loss of macroeconomic discipline. Such difficulties entailed large costs and may have caused delays in Turkey's preparation for EU membership.
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This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection as well as empirical evidence on the effects of patent rights. Then, the second part considers the international aspects of IPR protection. In summary, this paper draws the following conclusions from the literature. Firstly, different patent policy instruments have different effects on R&D and growth. Secondly, there is empirical evidence supporting a positive relationship between IPR protection and innovation, but the evidence is stronger for developed countries than for developing countries. Thirdly, the optimal level of IPR protection should tradeoff the social benefits of enhanced innovation against the social costs of multiple distortions and income inequality. Finally, in an open economy, achieving the globally optimal level of protection requires an international coordination (rather than the harmonization) of IPR protection.
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Die Diskussion über die Wahrscheinlichkeit asymmetrischer Schocks in Europa hat trotz Gründung der Europäischen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion an Aktualität nicht verloren. In diesem Beitrag wird daher die Frage gestellt, welche fiskalischen Anpassungsmechanismen geeignet sind, solche asymmetrischen Schocks aufzufangen. In einem ersten Schritt werden die bestehenden marktlichen Instrumente betrachtet. Insbesondere wird die Rolle der internationalen Arbeitskräftemobilität sowie der Flexibilität relativer regionaler Preise thematisiert. Im Rahmen der Arbeit wird anschließend auf die institutionellen Anpassungsmechanismen näher eingegangen. Dabei werden in einem zweiten Schritt die Rolle automatischer Stabilisatoren, mögliche Stabilisierungseffekte des EU-Budgets, Auswirkungen der EU-Strukturförderung und schließlich Möglichkeiten eines europäischen Finanzausgleichs untersucht. Neben diesen automatischen institutionellen Mechanismen werden abschließend dikretionäre Bekämpfungsmöglichkeiten asymmetrischer Schocks, vor allem nationale Fiskalpolitiken sowie diskretionäre Transfers aus dem EU-Budget, unter dem Stichwort "Stabilisierungsfonds" angesprochen.
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Lars Wang, IT-Joint Ventures and Economic Development in China-An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Nr. 234/2004
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