Purpose-This study investigates the short-and long-run causality linkages between the socioeconomic development measured by the GNI per capita PPP (purchasing power parity) and 4 groups of selected factors including information and communications technology (ICT), political, demographic, and macroeconomic indicators in a panel of 19 countries classified as High Income (HI) or Upper-Middle-Income (UMI) countries from MENA zone between 2008-2021. Design/methodology/approach-For comparison analysis between groups, the research design is based on four different Granger non causality tests. The first is the pairwise (Granger, 1969) non causality test, the second is the (Dumitrescu and Hurlin, 2012) panel non-causality test, the third is the panel VAR Block Exogeneity Wald Tests, and the latest is the panel ARDL ECM-based Granger non causality tests.
Findings-The results suggest that each group of the considered factors is a predictor with effects differ depending on the type of factors or the income level of the country. Based on the descriptive analysis and more sophisticated econometric techniques, the difference is obvious between the 2 groups of countries in the short-and long-term. Indeed, in the short term, besides agriculture indicator, the GNI for each group is affected by at least one of the ICT indicators in addition to tourism for the first group and demographic and political factors for the second group. In the long-run, GNI is caused by demographic factors for HI countries (except for Kuwait and Libya) and economic factor (except for Oman), ICT factors for Iran, Kuwait, Oman, and Lebanon and all UMI countries except Jordan. In addition, the political (demographic) factors for Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey (for all UMI countries except Syria), and the economic (political) factors for Jordan, Egypt, and Tunisia (Algeria and Morocco) contribute to the GNI prediction in the long-run.
Originality/value-. In light of the MENA socioeconomic development aspirations to achieve convergence on key factor targets, including ICT, political, demographic, and macroeconomic indicators, this research provides novel insights on socioeconomic development predictors and causality linkages.
Practical implications-. According to the empirical findings, this paper identifies the factors that impact the socioeconomic development around the MENA zone. The findings come in help for Governments and policymakers to adjust their policies and to design the most adequate policy according to the causality linkages between GNI and the selected factors.