Article

A Guide to Delphi

Authors:
  • Gene Rowe Evaluations
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Abstract

When we rely on the judgment of experts to help produce our forecasts, the key issues are how to get the appropriate information from our consultants and how to get a forecast if we are using multiple experts. Gene Rowe describes the Delphi method, tells what it offers to the forecaster, and explains what the pitfalls are in its implementation. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007

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... Expert judgment approaches essentially divide into those that utilise many experts, and those that utilise a relatively smaller number of experts (e.g. workshops with up to 20 participants) (Armstrong, 2001;Rowe, 2007). The former type generally involves the use of questionnaires, and is typified by the Delphi approach, in which a survey is reiterated over a number of 'rounds', during which feedback from prior rounds is provided and at which experts are encouraged to rethink the problem and revise their estimates if they deem this appropriate. ...
... The latter type of approaches generally involve the use of highly structured small group methods, which require experts to be present at one place/time, and which may take place (in the first instance) over a couple of days. 'Structure' is important, because unstructured group meetings are well-known to suffer from a wide variety of problems, such as over-dominance by dogmatic individuals, political game playing, premature closure of discussions, the tendency of individuals in groups to discuss common knowledge at the expense of unusual or uniquely held ideas, and so on (Armstrong, 2001;Rowe, 2007). Most of these methods involve: the use of experienced facilitators who are adept at pre-empting some of the typical group process problems; brainstorming-like approaches, to ensure that problems are not toonarrowly framed; open or secret voting, to ensure that all participants have a say; use of materials (e.g. ...
... For example, a method using expert judgment may also supply relevant information from databases for the experts to consider, and many foresight/forecasting approaches may be multi-stage, and involve a number of different processes over the course of an entire project (e.g. Delphi and scenarios, with additional literature and database searches) (Armstrong, 2001;Rowe, 2007). ...
... regional zu analysieren. Armstrong, 2006a;Häder, 2009;Powell, 2003;Rowe, 2007;Rowe & Wright, 1999, 2001  Weitere als wirksam betrachtete Programme beinhalten Maßnahmen, die auf das Eingreifen von Zeugen/Zuschauern von Straftaten ("Gewalt -Sehen -Helfen"; "Wer nichts tut, macht mit"), Alkoholmissbrauch von Minderjährigen ("Keine Kurzen für Kurze"), Verkehrssicherheit ("Guardian Angels"-Projekte), Sicherheit im öffentlichen Nahverkehr ("Bus-Coach-Projekt"), Fairplay im Sport ("Fair ist mehr") oder Medienkompetenzen ("Mit Sicherheit durchs Netz") abzielen. ...
... Im Rahmen der nationalen Institutionen-und Expertenbefragung beschrieben die befragten Expertinnen Armstrong, 2006a;Häder, 2009;Powell, 2003;Rowe, 2007;Rowe & Wright, 1999;2001 ...
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From the project website (youprev.eu): In the years 2011 and 2012, the study „Youth deviance and youth violence: A European multi-agency perspective on best practices in prevention and control“ (YouPrev) has been conducted in six European countries (Belgium, Germany, Hungary, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain). The main goal of the project was to deepen knowledge on prevention and control of juvenile delinquent behaviour and to make this knowledge available to relevant professional groups and institutions. Multiple methodological approaches were taken, including reviews of existing preventive approaches via expert surveys and analyses of available materials, local studies of juvenile delinquency and its prevention in urban and rural areas based upon surveys among adolescents in school contexts and on interviews with multi-professional samples of practitioners, Delphi surveys, and national and international multi-professional workshops. Manuals for continuing education of police and social work professionals were set up in each country; brochures summarizing key results and pointing out policy implications were published, and findings were presented and discussed at an international conference. YouPrev results emphasize that juvenile delinquency is on the one hand a universal developmental phenomenon. Breaking rules is part of the process of growing up, and most adolescents commit some offences during their adolescence. At the same time, juvenile delinquency is socially embedded. Family and peers are of utmost importance. Growing up under conditions of low or unstable parental supervision, spending one’s time with delinquent friends are both highly significant risk factors for delinquent behaviour. Social disorganization of the neighbourhood is a risk factor for juvenile violence. The wider social and economic context is also a determining factor. While youth crime will in many aspects remain stable in the near and intermediate future, it will also be affected by large societal trends, especially demographic change (population ageing), technological change, and economic trends and developments. High-quality prevention measures share common features such as being targeted at risk factors and protective factors, being directed towards at-risk populations and including early intervention, connecting multiple institutions and professions (especially police, school and social work) and including evaluative measures. YouPrev findings support the importance of tailoring specific preventive measures to the minority of repeat and persistent offenders. Given the multitude of strains and risk factors which characterize this group, the need for cooperation between social work services and the police / criminal justice system becomes evident. YouPrev findings clearly show that young people have concepts of factors influencing their behaviour and hence of delinquency prevention. Analyses of young persons’ concepts of successful crime prevention provide hints as to the accessibility of youngsters through preventive measures and agents. They stress the importance of considering interpersonal networks and informal social control as key factors for success or failure of preventive measures.
... Expert judgment approaches essentially divide into those that utilise many experts, and those that utilise a relatively smaller number of experts (e.g. workshops with up to 20 participants) (Armstrong, 2001;Rowe, 2007). The former generally involves the use of questionnaires, and is typified by the Delphi approach, in which a survey is reiterated over a number of "rounds", during which feedback from prior rounds is provided and at which experts are encouraged to rethink the problem and revise their estimates if they deem this appropriate. ...
... The latter approache generally involve the use of highly structured small group methods, which require experts to be present at one place/time, and which may take place (in the first instance) over a couple of days. "Structure" is important, because unstructured group meetings are well-known to suffer from a variety of problems, such as over-dominance by dogmatic individuals, political game playing, premature closure of discussions, the tendency of individuals in groups to discuss common knowledge at the expense of unusual or uniquely held ideas and so on (Armstrong, 2001;Rowe, 2007). ...
... Ashton and Ashton (1985) recommend combining independent forecasts from a group of experts, whereby the level of expertise does not have to be extremely high, and weight each expert's forecast equally. Rowe (2007) presents evidence that the accuracy of expert forecasts can be improved through the use of the Delphi technique. This is an iterative survey, where experts are asked to provide reasoning for their forecasts, to respond and give feedback to the forecasts done by other anonymous experts (Green et al., 2007). ...
... This feedback and information is then used to revise the forecasts. If done properly, this method enhances unbiased estimates and forecasts and takes full account of the knowledge and judgment of all experts (Rowe, 2007). ...
... The practical implementation of long-terms methods regarding the problem of forecasting the prospects of oil and gas offshore projects can be realized with the help of experts. Expert methods also require background information, which serves as a starting point for the formation of expert assessments [23][24][25]. Such reference data are necessary to understand the dynamics of the predicted phenomenon, the nature of the relationship and the interdependence between the various indicators and events characterizing it. ...
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... 7 The Delphi method was developed at the RAND Corporation in the 1950's for predicting bombing requirements in a cold-war conflict with the USSR [12]. Surveys of the Delphi method are provided by [13], [36] and [37], while [29] review the judgmental forecasting approach. ...
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... To overcome biases and group pressure, it is helpful to introduce anonymity, diversity, and opportunity for dissent into the forecast process. The long-established Delphi method introduces such principles (for an overview of the Delphi method, see Guide to Delphi, Rowe, 2007). So, too, does the Key Points ■ To overcome biases and group pressure, it is helpful to introduce anonymity, diversity, and opportunity for dissent into the forecast process. ...
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... Expert surveys are main source of information to predicting future throughput with their rich experience as technologist, operators, planners and others. Delphi method [33] is one of the popular approach by welldefining questionnaires to specific parties that yields a consensus of factors and opinions on future container throughput. ...
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