Article

Why are exchange rates so difficult to predict?

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Abstract

A quarter-century quest hasn't found the elusive links between economic fundamentals and currency values. ; The U.S. dollar has been losing value against several major currencies this decade. Since 2001-02, the U.S. currency has fallen about 50 percent against the euro, 40 percent against the Canadian dollar and 30 percent against the British pound .

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... Neste contexto, o presente artigo agrega a esta literatura, se propondo a modelar e prever o câmbio mensal nominal Real brasileiro -Dólar americano, R$/US$, durante o período de janeiro de 2000 a dezembro de 2009, estando alinhado a Wang (2008) e Engel e West (2005), ao assumir que os preços das operações de aquisição de títulos americanos refletem os níveis esperados dos fundamentos. No caso da economia brasileira, a adoção do câmbio flutuante data de 1999, resultado de crises de balanço de pagamentos e efeitos inflacionários que dificultavam o processo de estabilidade econômica. ...
... Neste contexto, o presente artigo agrega a esta literatura, se propondo a modelar e prever o câmbio mensal nominal Real brasileiro -Dólar americano, R$/US$, durante o período de janeiro de 2000 a dezembro de 2009, estando alinhado a Wang (2008) e Engel e West (2005), ao assumir que os preços das operações de aquisição de títulos americanos refletem os níveis esperados dos fundamentos. No caso da economia brasileira, a adoção do câmbio flutuante data de 1999, resultado de crises de balanço de pagamentos e efeitos inflacionários que dificultavam o processo de estabilidade econômica. ...
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