Article

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Complex Managed Hydrosystems: An Application to the Columbia River Basin

Authors:
  • Virginia Tech
  • Paulsen Environmental Research
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the authors.

Abstract

The Columbia River Basin, one of the world′s most complex developed hydropower systems, is also the spawning area for over 100 stocks of salmon, 3 of which have recently been listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Electricity ratepayers in the basin have spent over a billion dollars since 1980 to increase salmon populations. This paper describes simulation and optimization models developed to analyze the cost-effectiveness of salmon recovery measures, as required by the 1980 Northwest Power Planning Act. The results suggest that the combination of optimization and simulation is useful for analyzing the system-wide cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures.

No full-text available

Request Full-text Paper PDF

To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.

... In only a few cases have much more robust optimization based methods been examined. This includes work by Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995), Kuby et al. (2005); O' Hanley and Tomberlin (2005), and Zheng et al. (2009). An extensive review of barrier prioritization methods is provided in Kemp and O'Hanley (2010). ...
... More generally speaking, optimization and heuristic based solution methods could be coupled together with surface flow and sediment transport models (Stromberg 1993;Burke et al. 2009;Brown and Pasternack 2009), fish population and community dynamic models (Paulsen and Wernstedt 1995;Zheng et al. 2009) and bioeconomic models (Johnson and Adams 1988) in order to directly evaluate the range of potential environmental, ecological and economic benefits of barrier removal. Such models might adopt a multi-objective approach in which the size of the largest connected river network is traded-off with various hydrologic and ecological variables of interest, including mean water temperature, annual sediment yield, deviance from natural hydrograph peaks and troughs, and the abundance/richness of native aquatic and riparian species. ...
... Analysis of the spatial configuration of barrier removals at different budget amounts confirms that solutions may not be perfectly nested, meaning that barriers targeted for removal at one budget level may not all be included among those given a higher budget.With regard to future research, there are number of ways the modeling approach presented could be improved or extended. For example, the current model could be generalized, along the lines ofPaulsen and Wernstedt (1995), by combining infrastructure removal with other types of environmental restoration. This might include in-stream habitat improvements (e.g., placement of gravel and large woody debris), pollution abatement actions, active replanting of riparian vegetation and establishing buffer strips along channel margins. ...
Article
Full-text available
Restoration of unobstructed, free-flowing sections of river can provide considerable environmental and ecological benefits. It removes impediments to aquatic species dispersal and improves flow, sediment and nutrient transport. This, in turn, can serve to improve environmental quality and abundance of native species, not only within the river channel itself, but also within adjacent riparian, floodplain and coastal areas. In support of this effort, a generic optimization model is presented in this paper for prioritizing the removal of problematic structures, which adversely affect aquatic species dispersal and river hydrology. Its purpose is to maximize, subject to a budget, the size of the single largest section of connected river unimpeded by artificial flow and dispersal barriers. The model is designed to improve, in a holistic way, the connectivity and environmental status of a river network. Furthermore, unlike most previous prioritization methods, it is particularly well suited to meet the needs of potamodromous fish species and other resident aquatic organisms, which regularly disperse among different parts of a river network. After presenting an initial mixed integer linear programming formulation of the model, more scalable reformulation and solution techniques are investigated for solving large, realistic-sized instances. Results from a case-study of the Pike River Watershed, located in northeast Wisconsin, USA, demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed model as well as highlight some general insights about systematic barrier removal planning.
... A number of features set our current model apart from barrier optimization models already proposed in the literature. For example, most existing models (Paulsen & Wernstedt 1995;Kuby et al. 2005;O'Hanley & Tomberlin 2005;Zheng, Hobbs & Koonce 2009; are designed exclusively to facilitate passage of diadromous fish (e.g. salmon), which travel upstream from the sea into freshwater. ...
... The standard (simpler) approach is to maximize some form of habitat metric, as with O' Hanley (2011) or O'Hanley et al. (2013b. Two notable exceptions to the use of habitat metrics are Paulsen & Wernstedt (1995) and Zheng, Hobbs & Koonce (2009). Paulsen & Wernstedt (1995) propose a framework for selecting barrier mitigation and other in-stream habitat restoration actions at minimum cost which satisfy defined escapement and harvesting goals. ...
... Two notable exceptions to the use of habitat metrics are Paulsen & Wernstedt (1995) and Zheng, Hobbs & Koonce (2009). Paulsen & Wernstedt (1995) propose a framework for selecting barrier mitigation and other in-stream habitat restoration actions at minimum cost which satisfy defined escapement and harvesting goals. Zheng, Hobbs & Koonce (2009), meanwhile, optimize multiple ecological and socioeconomic outcomes of dam removal, including fish productivity gains, adjusted fish biomass ratios, dam removal costs and invasive species management costs. ...
... In attempts to overcome this critical deficiency, a few studies have investigated the use of optimization based methods for more efficiently targeting barrier repair and removal actions. Relevant work in this area includes Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995), Kuby et al. (2005), O'Hanley andTomberlin (2005) and Zheng et al. (2009). Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) explore the use of simulation and linear programming (LP) to develop least-cost restoration plans for meeting salmon harvest and spawning escapement goals in the Columbia River Basin (USA). ...
... Relevant work in this area includes Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995), Kuby et al. (2005), O'Hanley andTomberlin (2005) and Zheng et al. (2009). Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) explore the use of simulation and linear programming (LP) to develop least-cost restoration plans for meeting salmon harvest and spawning escapement goals in the Columbia River Basin (USA). Their work is noteworthy in that they integrate barrier repair and removal decisions together with other types of habitat restoration and mitigation activities, including in-stream habitat modifications, alternative dam operating policies (i.e., drawdowns), predator control measures, and the setting of harvest quotas. ...
... Linked with this, another interesting line of research would to go a step further by directly linking changes in the quantity, quality, and connectivity of in-stream habitat with fish population and community dynamics. This could be achieved either empirically by directly including additional model coefficients to estimate mean changes in population size or species richness (in the same vein as our statistical analysis) or, more along the lines of Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995), via integration of spatially realistic, processbased fish population and ecosystem simulation models. The former approach would probably require few substantial changes to our proposed model. ...
Article
Full-text available
Systematic methods for prioritizing the repair and removal of fish passage barriers, while growing of late, have hitherto focused almost exclusively on meeting the needs of migratory fish species (e.g., anadromous salmonids). An important but as of yet unaddressed issue is the development of new modeling approaches which are applicable to resident fish species habitat restoration programs. In this paper, we develop a budget constrained optimization model for deciding which barriers to repair or remove in order to maximize habitat availability for stream resident fish. Habitat availability at the local stream reach is determined based on the recently proposed C metric, which accounts for the amount, quality, distance and level of connectivity to different stream habitat types. We assess the computational performance of our model using geospatial barrier and stream data collected from the Pine-Popple Watershed, located in northeast Wisconsin (USA). The optimization model is found to be an efficient and practical decision support tool. Optimal solutions, which are useful in informing basin-wide restoration planning efforts, can be generated on average in only a few minutes.
... The work by Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) is another example of the use of optimisation modelling techniques for efficient river restoration planning. More specifically, the authors applied simulation and linear programming to find least-cost solutions that met specific harvest and spawning escapement goals for different salmon stocks in the Columbia River basin. ...
... While undoubtedly comprehensive and highly detailed in nature, the modelling framework employed by Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) is very limited in its scalability, thus limiting its general usefulness as an effective planning tool for prioritising barrier removal decisions. The primary reason for this is that lengthy simulation runs must be performed for all feasible combinations of barrier removal relevant to each subbasin. ...
... piscivore to planktivore biomass ratio and native species to total species biomass ratio). Unlike Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995), however, dam removal effects were assumed by Zheng et al. (2009) to be locally linear. Hence, changes in fish population numbers and other ecosystem level metrics following dam removal were treated as being additive and so could be modelled independently. ...
... A number of features set our current model apart from barrier optimization models already proposed in the literature. For example, most existing models (Paulsen and Wernstedt, 1995;Kuby et al., 2005;O'Hanley and Tomberlin, 2005;Zheng et al., 2009;King and O'Hanley, 2016) are designed exclusively to facilitate passage of diadromous sh (e.g., salmon), which travel upstream from the sea into freshwater. This simplies the modeling process in that the only dispersal paths that need to be considered are those from the river mouth to areas located above barriers. ...
... The standard (simpler) approach is to maximize some form of habitat metric, as with O'Hanley (2011) or O'Hanley et al. (2013b. Two notable exceptions to the use of habitat metrics are Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) and Zheng et al. (2009). Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) propose a framework for selecting barrier mitigation and other in-stream habitat restoration actions at minimum cost which satisfy dened escapement and harvesting goals. ...
... Two notable exceptions to the use of habitat metrics are Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) and Zheng et al. (2009). Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) propose a framework for selecting barrier mitigation and other in-stream habitat restoration actions at minimum cost which satisfy dened escapement and harvesting goals. Zheng et al. (2009), meanwhile, optimize multiple ecological and socioeconomic outcomes of dam removal, including sh productivity gains, adjusted sh biomass ratios, dam removal costs, and invasive species management costs. ...
Article
Full-text available
The presence of dams, stream-road crossings and other infrastructure often compromises the connectivity of rivers, leading to reduced fish abundance and diversity. The assessment and mitigation of river barriers is critical to the success of restoration efforts aimed at restoring river integrity. In this study, we present a combined modelling approach involving statistical regression methods and mixed integer linear programming to maximize resident fish species richness within a catchment through targeted barrier mitigation. Compared to existing approaches, our proposed method provides enhanced biological realism while avoiding the use of complex and computationally intensive population/ecosystem models. To estimate barrier passability quickly and at low cost, we further outline a rapid barrier assessment methodology. The methodology is used to characterize potential passage barriers for various fish species common to the UK but can be readily adapted to different planning areas and other species of interest. We demonstrate the applicability of our barrier assessment and prioritization approach based on a case study of the River Wey, located in south-east England. We find that significant increases in species richness can be achieved for modest investment in barrier mitigation. In particular, dams and weirs with low passability located on mid- to high-order streams are identified as top priorities for mitigation. Synthesis and applications. Our study shows the benefits of combining a coarse resolution barrier assessment methodology with state-of-the-art optimization modelling to cost-effectively plan fish passage barrier mitigation actions. The modelling approach can help inform on-the-ground river restoration decision-making by providing a recommended course of action that best allocates limited resources in order to restore longitudinal connectivity and maximize ecological gains.
... Rarely have complex fish dispersal and population growth been treated in comprehensive manner. Work by Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995), Siikamaki (2009), Zheng andHobbs (2013), and Fitzpatrick and Neeson (2018) provide notable examples. Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) propose a combined simulation-optimization methodology to analyze the cost-effectiveness of different mitigation measures for restoring salmon populations in the Columbia River basin, including in-stream habitat restoration and improved fish passage past large hydropower dams and small barriers. ...
... Work by Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995), Siikamaki (2009), Zheng andHobbs (2013), and Fitzpatrick and Neeson (2018) provide notable examples. Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) propose a combined simulation-optimization methodology to analyze the cost-effectiveness of different mitigation measures for restoring salmon populations in the Columbia River basin, including in-stream habitat restoration and improved fish passage past large hydropower dams and small barriers. The simulation model is used to evaluate the biological effects of a specified combination of mitigation actions, while the optimization model finds the least-cost portfolio of mitigation actions that achieves stock-specific harvesting and escapement goals. ...
... The aim of our present work is to address various shortcomings of existing barrier prioritization methods, which include: i) the use of structural (i.e., habitat connectivity) indices as proxies for complex biological processes (i.e., fish dispersal and population growth); ii) overly restrictive assumptions that weaken generality (e.g., all response functions must be linear); and iii) limited scalability that prevents evaluating a large number of barriers and mitigation options (e.g., having to enumerate all feasible solutions). To our knowledge, ours is the first attempt at directly incorporating spatial PVA into a barrier optimization model, as opposed to loosely coupling optimization with PVA (sensu Paulsen and Wernstedt, 1995;Zheng and Hobbs, 2013) . The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. ...
Article
In this study, we propose a novel framework combining spatially explicit population viability analysis and optimization for prioritizing fish passage barrier mitigation decisions. Our model aims to maximize the equilibrium population size, or alternatively minimize the extinction risk, of a target fish species subject to a budget on the total cost of barrier mitigation. A case study involving a wild coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) population from the Tillamook basin, Oregon, USA is used to illustrate the benefits of our approach. We consider two different spawning adult dispersal patterns, river and reach level homing, as well as straying. Under density dependent population growth, we find that homing behavior type has a significant effect on barrier mitigation decisions. In particular, with reach homing, our model produces virtually the same population sizes as a more traditional barrier prioritization procedure designed to maximize accessible habitat. With river homing, however, we find that it is not necessary to remove all barriers in order to maximize equilibrium population size. Indeed, a stochastic version of our model reveals that removing all barriers actually results in a marginal increase in quasi-extinction risk. We hypothesize that this is due to a population thinning effect of barriers, resulting in a surplus of recruits in areas of low spawner density. Our findings highlights the importance of considering spatiotemporal fish population dynamics in river connectivity restoration planning. By adding greater biological realism, models such as ours can help conservation managers to more strategically allocate limited resources, resulting in both cost savings and improved population status for a focal species.
... Environmental objectives in river optimization models vary between optimizing reservoir releases for downstream water quality (Neumann et al., 2006), optimizing natural flow variability in regulated rivers (Harpman, 1999;Shiau and Wu, 2004;Homa et al., 2005) and optimizing fish population viability with different hydraulic and water quality conditions (Sale et al., 1982;Bartholow and Waddle, 1995;Paulsen and Wernstedt, 1995;Cardwell et al., 1996;Jager and Rose, 2003;Watanabe et al., 2006;Jager and Smith, 2008). We focus here on fish population optimization modelling. ...
... The work by Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) is notable because they used simulation and optimization to minimize costs of many salmon recovery measures, such as improving passage around barriers, improving spawning and rearing habitat and reducing harvest from the ocean, rivers and tributaries in the Columbia River Basin. A simulation model compared fish survival with different restoration alternatives, and optimization was used to minimize costs given the restoration decisions. ...
Article
This paper examines and ranks restoration alternatives for improving fish habitat by evaluating tradeoffs between fish production and restoration costs. Optimization modelling is used to maximize out-migrating coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) from a natal stream and is applied as a case study in California's Shasta River. Restoration activities that alter flow and water temperature conditions are the decision variables in the model and include relocating a major diversion, increasing riparian shading, increasing instream flow, restoring a cool-water spring and removing a dam. A budget constraint limits total restoration expenditures. This approach combines simple fish population modelling with flow and water quality modelling to explore management strategies and aid decision making. Previous fish habitat optimization research typically uses single restoration strategies, usually by altering reservoir releases or modifying outlet structures. Our method enlarges the solution space to more accurately represent extensive and integrated solutions to fish habitat problems. Results indicate that restoration alternatives can be prioritized by fish habitat improvement and restoration cost. For the Shasta River case study, considerable habitat restoration investments were required before fish productivity increased substantially. This exercise illustrates the potential of ecological optimization for highlighting promising restoration approaches and dismissing poor alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
... The model will seek to maximize an objective (say accessible habitat) subject to a set of constraints, such as a budget. For example, Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995), Kuby et al. (2005), Zheng et al. (2009), Zheng and Hobbs (2013) all formulate their optimization models as mixed integer linear programs (MILPs), where the primary decision variables are whether to remove a barrier or not. These models are constrained to require mitigation of all barriers downstream 26 of any candidate barrier to the river mouth and so are designed specifically to facilitate upstream migration. ...
... Typically, the optimization models presented in the literature follow the approach of specifying the initial and post-mitigation barrier passabilities as being binary (e.g., Paulsen and Wernstedt, 1995;Kuby et al., 2005;Zheng et al., 2009;O'Hanley, 2011;Zheng and Hobbs, 2013). This approach is useful from an applied perspective as it limits the data requirements for specifying the varying effect of barriers on fish passability. ...
Thesis
Full-text available
The overarching aim of this PhD thesis is to present a bio-economic framework for simultaneously generating optimal river barrier mitigation solutions and estimating the economic benefit of improved ecosystem services delivery resulting from their implementation. Optimal solutions are generated using mixed integer linear programming techniques. These solutions are then valued using marginal willingness to pay estimates from Choice Experiments.
... Haight et al. (2000) incorporated funding considerations in their designs of optimal translocation strategies, and Lubow (1996) linked dynamic programming and metapopulation simulation to define optimal translocation strategies. Others have incorporated optimization, financial costs, and demographic simulation in analyses of conservation problems (Haight 1995, Paulsen and Wernstedt 1995, Haight and Travis 1997. ...
... We focused on the costs associated with management and using optimization followed by simulation, but the general framework can be seen in other examples. Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) In addition to providing practical information for the conservation of piping plovers, this study serves as an example of a process that can and should be followed for other populations of con-,x 11 -, .:::: ' ;f Bob Murphy next to a temporary electric mesh fence-another method of protecting piping plover eggs and chicks from mammalian predators. ...
Article
Full-text available
Optimization and simulation modeling can be used to account for demographic and economic factors simultaneously in a comprehensive analysis of endangered-species population recovery. This is a powerful approach that is broadly applicable but under-utilized in conservation biology. We applied the approach to a population recovery analysis of threatened and endangered piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) in the Great Plains of North America. Predator exclusion increases the reproductive success of piping plovers, but the most cost-efficient strategy of applying predator exclusion and the number of protected breeding pairs necessary to prevent further population declines were unknown. We developed a linear programming model to define strategies that would either maximize fledging rates or minimize financial costs by allocating plover pairs to 1 of 6 types of protection. We evaluated the optimal strategies using a stochastic population simulation model. The minimum cost to achieve a 20% chance of stabilizing simulated populations was approximately $1-11 million over 50 years. Increasing reproductive success to 1.24 fledglings/pair at minimal cost in any given area required fencing 85% of pairs at managed sites but cost 23% less than the current approach. Maximum fledging rates resulted in >20% of simulated populations reaching recovery goals in 30-50 years at cumulative costs of <$16 million. Protecting plover pairs within 50 km of natural resource agency field offices was sufficient to increase simulated populations to established recovery goals. A range-wide management plan needs to be developed and implemented to foster the involvement and cooperation among managers that will be necessary for recovery efforts to be successful. We also discuss how our approach can be applied to a variety of wildlife management issues.
... Variants of the conceptual approaches described in the preceding sections have been applied in various CEA studies: mathematical programming (Bartolini et al., 2007); bio--economic modelling (Semaan et al., 2007;Mouratiadou et al., 2007); non--linear mathematical programming models (Brady, 2002); linear programming (Azzaino et al., 2002); agriculture sector mathematical programming (Ribaudo et al., 2001); integrated agri--environmental models (Schou et al., 2000); damage index methods (Schleiniger, 1999); expert ecosystem attribute scoring methods (Macmillan et al., 1998); regression models (Szoege et al., 1996); BBNs ; and simulations and optimization models (Paulsen and Wernstedt, 1995;Lise and van der Veeren, 2002). A brief review of some of these studies is presented below. ...
... For example, Kuby et al. (2005) use basin level optimization models to evaluate tradeoffs between ecological benefits and economics cost of dam removal in the Willamette basin. Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995), Hickey and Diaz (1999) and Stevens et al. (2002) applied economic concepts to the design of environmental management policies involving complex physical and natural resource information and applied optimization techniques to select management methods that attained the desired objective (e.g. a minimum stream flow requirement) at the least cost. Johnson and Adams (1988) studied the economic benefits of flow levels on steelhead populations in the John Day River, Oregon. ...
Article
This paper examines ecosystem restoration practices that focus on water temperature reductions in the upper mainstem Willamette River, Oregon, for the benefit of endangered salmonids and other native cold-water species. The analysis integrates hydrologic, natural science and economic models to determine the cost-effectiveness of alternative water temperature reduction strategies. A temperature model is used to simulate the effects of combinations of upstream riparian shading and flow augmentations on downstream water temperatures. Costs associated with these strategies are estimated and consist of the opportunity costs of lost agricultural production and recreation opportunities due to flow releases from an up-stream reservoir. Temperature reductions from another strategy, hyporheic flow enhancement, are also examined. Restoration strategies associated with enhanced hyporheic cooling consist of removal/reconnection of current obstacles to the creation of dynamic river channel complexity. The observed reduction of summer water temperatures associated with enhanced channel complexity indicates that restoring hyporheic flow processes is more likely to achieve cost-effective temperature reductions and meet the total maximum daily load (TMDL) target than conventional approaches that rely on increased riparian shading or/and combinations of flow augmentation. Although the costs associated with the hyporheic flow enhancement approach are substantial, the effects of such a long-term ecological improvement of the floodplain are expected to assist the recovery of salmonid populations and provide ancillary benefits to society. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
... gricultural diversions from the Edwards Aquifer in Texas to promote environmental needs. Moore et al. (1996) analyzed tradeoffs between endangered fish species and irrigated agriculture for the 17 western states. Naeser and Smith (1995) examined measures for securing instream flows to improve the aquatic environment in the Arkansas River, Colorado. Paulsen and Wemstedt (1995) analyzed the cost effectiveness of various salmon recovery methods in the Columbia Basin. Raffiee et al. (1997) estimated economic costs of more than $160 million to increase by two percent the survival probability of an endangered Nevada fish. Turner and Perry (1997) examined least cost strategies for increasing instream flows for envi ...
Article
The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) restricts federal agencies from carrying out actions that jeopardize the continued existence of any endangered species. The U.S. Supreme Court has emphasized that the language of the ESA and its amendments permits few exceptions to the requirement to give endangered species the highest priority. This paper estimates economic costs associated with one measure for increasing instream flows to meet critical habitat requirements of the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow. Impacts are derived from an integrated regional model of the hydrology, economics, and institutions of the upper Rio Grande Basin in Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Mexico. One proposal for providing minimum streamflows to protect the silvery minnow from extinction would provide guaranteed year round streamflows of at least 50 cubic feet per second in the San Acacia reach of the upper Rio Grande. These added flows can be accomplished through reduced surface diversions by New Mexico water users in dry years when flows would otherwise be reduced below the critical level required by the minnow. Based on a 44-year simulation of future inflows to the basin, we find that some agricultural users suffer damages, but New Mexico water users as a whole do not incur damages from a policy that reduces stream depletions sufficiently to provide habitat for the minnow. The same policy actually benefits downstream users, producing average annual benefits of over $200,000 per year for west Texas agriculture, and over $1 million for El Paso municipal and industrial water users, respectively. Economic impacts of instream flow deliveries for the minnow are highest in drought years.
... This means that several drainage basins and/or jurisdictions can share a common coastal basin and depend on each other through transports between coastal basins. Studies on management of large-scale water bodies, such as Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995), Gren et al. (1997) and Turner et al. (1999), investigate policies for achieving full co-operative solutions, but they do not consider implications of alternative decentralised decisions. ...
... The need to maintain instream flows for endangered species has increased regulatory restrictions on surface water rights. Prior studies have analyzed the economic impacts of meeting instream flow requirements and least-cost strategies to mitigate these costs, particularly in many Western States with highly seasonal precipitation (e.g., Paulsen and Wernstedt 1995;Willis and Whittlesley 1998;Green and O'Connor 2001;Ward and Booker 2003). These studies focus on relatively large rivers where water stored in major dams provides the primary source of both agricultural water security and augmented instream flows. ...
Article
Full-text available
We analyze the potential effects of listing threatened salmonid species on landowner behavior using parcel-level data from Sonoma County, California. We estimate a bivariate probit model, representing the landowner’s joint decision on land use and water management during the period 1973–2006, both before and after listing. Our results indicate that after listing, vineyard development with on-site reservoirs became significantly less likely, particularly in upland watersheds with seasonal streams. This interseasonal shift from stored surface water in winter toward groundwater or direct diversion in summer may lead to negative unintended consequences on summer flows needed for juvenile fish survivorship.
... As discussed in the review section, Scoring and Ranking systems are the most common method used to prioritize barriers for mitigation or removal. This Current methods for prioritizing fish passage barrier removal and repair decisions, which range from simple scoring-and-ranking type procedures (Pess et al. 1998, WDFW 2000, Taylor 2003 to much more sophisticated optimization based methods (Paulsen and Wernstedt 1995, Kuby et al. 2005, O'Hanley and Tomberlin 2005, all presume perfect certainty and full availability of data concerning the number, location, current passability level, and repair cost of barriers. In many real-world planning situations, such as in the UK, however, much of the information may be uncertain or incomplete either for specific sets of data or within particular planning areas. ...
... Unfortunately, the use of optimization in the conservation and restoration of salmon habitat, however, has been extremely limited. The work by Paulsen and Wernstedt [19], therefore, is noteworthy. They examine the use of lin-ear programming for integrated salmon recovery planning in the Columbia River basin. ...
Article
Full-text available
Removing small artificial barriers that hinder upstream migrations of fish is a major problem in riparian habitat restoration. Because of budgetary limitations, it is necessary to prioritize barrier removal and repair decisions. These have usually been based on scoring and ranking procedures, which, although simple to use, can be very inefficient in terms of increasing the amount of accessible instream habitat. We develop a novel decision-making approach, based on integer programming techniques, which optimizes repair and removal decisions. Results show based on real datasets of barrier culverts located in Washington State that scoring and ranking is over 25% below the optimum on average and a full 100% below in the worst case, producing no net habitat gain whatsoever. This is compared to a dynamic programming method that was able to find optimal solutions in less than a second, even for problems with up to several hundred variables, and a heuristic method, which found solutions with less than a 1% average optimality gap in even less time.
... The need to maintain instream flows for endangered species has increased regulatory restrictions on surface water rights. Prior studies have analyzed the economic impacts of meeting instream flow requirements and least-cost strategies to mitigate these costs, particularly in many Western States with highly seasonal precipitation (e.g., Paulsen and Wernstedt 1995;Willis and Whittlesley 1998;Green and O'Connor 2001;Ward and Booker 2003). These studies focus on relatively large rivers where water stored in major dams provides the primary source of both agricultural water security and augmented instream flows. ...
Article
Full-text available
Many rural landowners within the Western United States do not have access to a secure water supply provided by a major dam or an irrigation district. Such water users must rely instead on groundwater pumping and/or seasonal water flows from tributaries. Some of these agricultural producers choose to store winter stream flows from tributaries within onsite reservoirs to secure their spring/summer water needs. However, regulatory agencies have increased restrictions on surface water storage and diversions to improve instream flows for endangered salmon, thus reducing water security for many landowners not located along the main stem. The majority of salmon habitat is within the tributaries located throughout a watershed. Most research regarding instream flows and water management, however, has focused on the main stem portion of a watershed and not on its tributaries. Such a focus ignores the important fact that most landowners are found off the main stem. Consequently, effective water management policies aimed at improving water security and salmon survivorship must focus on the main stem and the tributaries within a watershed. Our current research focuses on both of these critical areas. We Develop a spatially explicit economic model to analyze the demand for additional onsite storage with and without the existing regulatory restrictions. Using this model, we are able to determine which landowners have unmet demands for onsite storage versus those who prefer to pump groundwater, and thus would not request an appropriative water right for storage, even in the absence of a policy restriction.
... Variants of the conceptual approaches described in the preceding sections have been applied in various CEA studies: mathematical programming (Bartolini et al., 2007); bio--economic modelling (Semaan et al., 2007;Mouratiadou et al., 2007); non--linear mathematical programming models (Brady, 2002); linear programming (Azzaino et al., 2002); agriculture sector mathematical programming (Ribaudo et al., 2001); integrated agri--environmental models (Schou et al., 2000); damage index methods (Schleiniger, 1999); expert ecosystem attribute scoring methods (Macmillan et al., 1998); regression models (Szoege et al., 1996); BBNs ; and simulations and optimization models (Paulsen and Wernstedt, 1995;Lise and van der Veeren, 2002). A brief review of some of these studies is presented below. ...
... Wernsted [15] Kuby et al. [16] Schick and Lindley [17] Null et al. [18] McKay et al. [19] Kocovsky [20] Jager et al. [21] Zheng et al. [22] O'Hanley [23] O'Hanley et al. [24] Ziv et al. [25] Hermoso et al. [26] Theime et al. [27] Type of spatial decision Decision about dam siting ...
Article
What is the best way to arrange dams within river basins to benefit society? Recent interest in this question has grown in response to the worldwide trend toward developing hydropower as a source of renewable energy in Asia and South America, and the movement toward removing unnecessary dams in the US. Environmental and energy sustainability are important practical concerns, and yet river development has rarely been planned with the goal of providing society with a portfolio of ecosystem services into the future. We organized a review and synthesis of the growing research in sustainable river basin design around four spatial decisions: Is it better to build fewer mainstem dams or more tributary dams? Should dams be clustered or distributed among distant subbasins? Where should dams be placed along a river? At what spatial scale should decisions be made? The following design principles for increasing ecological sustainability emerged from our review: (i) concentrate dams within a subset of tributary watersheds and avoid downstream mainstems of rivers, (ii) disperse freshwater reserves among the remaining tributary catchments, (iii) ensure that habitat provided between dams will support reproduction and retain offspring, and (iv) formulate spatial decision problems at the scale of large river basins. Based on our review, we discuss trade-offs between hydropower and ecological objectives when planning river basin development. We hope that future testing and refinement of principles extracted from our review will define a path toward sustainable river basin design. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
... Naeser and Smith (1995) examined measures for securing instream flows to improve the aquatic environment in the Arkansas River, Colorado. Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) analyzed the cost-effectiveness of various salmon recovery methods in the Columbia Basin. Raffiee et al. (1997) estimated economic costs of more than $160 million to increase by 2% the survival probability of an endangered Nevada fish. ...
Article
Full-text available
The United States Endangered Species Act (ESA) prohibits federal actions that jeop-ardize the existence of any endangered species. The U.S. Supreme Court has affirmed that the language of the ESA and its amendments allows few exceptions to the need to give endangered species highest priority. This article estimates economic impacts associated with one method for increasing instream flows to protect critical habitat re-quirements of the endangered Rio Grande Silvery Minnow. One proposal for providing minimum streamflows to protect the Silvery Minnow from extinction would guarantee annual year-round streamflows of at least 50 cubic feet per second in the San Acacia reach of New Mexico's Rio Grande. These added flows can be produced through re-duced surface diversions by cities and irrigators in central New Mexico low flow dry years when streamflows would otherwise fall below the minnow's required level. Using a 44-year forecast of future basin streamflows, our results show that central New Mexico agricultural users suffer economic damages, New Mexico water users as a whole do not incur damages from reductions in streamflow depletions needed to support the minnow's habitat. Surprisingly, that policy produces benefits to downstream users, producing av-erage annual benefits of $200,000 per year for southern New Mexico agriculture, about the same per for west Texas agriculture, and over $1million for El Paso municipal and industrial water users. Economic impacts of guaranteeing instream flow protection for the minnow are highest in drought years.
... One of the novelties of the research reported in this paper is acknowledging the variability within a catchment and disaggregated analysis of cost-effectiveness within a larger catchment. Most water management related cost-effectiveness studies are at river basin scale (Paulsen and Wernstedt, 1995; Cools et al., 2011) or at national scale (Schou et al., 2000; Brady, 2003; Hanley and Black, 2006) or even regional scale (Gren et al., 1997; Froschl et al., 2008). Such large scale analyses tend to fail to reflect the internal variability inherent in environmental systems. ...
... [11] A small body of research has examined the economic benefits of minimum in-stream flows, including papers by Berrens et al. [2000], Brown [2000] and Hsu et al. [1997]. Paulsen and Wernstedt [1995] analyzed the cost-effectiveness of various salmon recovery methods in the Columbia Basin. Raffiee et al. [1997] estimated economic costs of more than $160 million to increase by 2% the survival probability of an endangered Nevada fish. ...
Article
Full-text available
Significant growth in the Rio Grande Basin's demand for water has stressed the region's scarce water supply. This paper presents an analysis of the impacts of severe and sustained drought and of minimum in-stream flow requirements to support endangered species in the Rio Grande watershed. These impacts are investigated by modeling the physical and institutional constraints within the Rio Grande Basin and by identifying the hydrologic and economic responses of all major water users. Water supplies, which include all major tributaries, interbasin transfers, and hydrologically connected groundwater, are represented in a yearly time step. A nonlinear programming model is developed to maximize economic benefits subject to hydrologic and institutional constraints. Results indicate that drought produces considerable impacts on both agriculture and municipal and industrial (MI) uses in the Rio Grande watershed. In-stream flow requirements to support endangered species' habitat produce the largest impacts on agricultural water users in New Mexico and Texas. Hydrologic and economic impacts are more pronounced when in-stream flow requirements dictate larger quantities of water for endangered species' habitat. Higher in-stream flow requirements for endangered species in central New Mexico cause considerable losses to New Mexico agriculture above Elephant Butte Reservoir and to MI users in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Those same in-stream flow requirements reduce drought damages to New Mexico agriculture below Elephant Butte Reservoir and reduce the severity of drought damages to MI users in El Paso, Texas. Results provide a framework for formulating federal policy responses to drought in the Rio Grande Basin.
... An independent study by Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) conducts a cost-effectiveness analysis of actions to maintain seventy-nine salmon and steelhead stocks in the Columbia River basin. Their study focuses on the role of hatcheries and barge transport of smolts, among other measures, for preserving salmon. ...
Article
Full-text available
The effects of salmon recovery measures on the Northwest agricultural sector are evaluated. Relevant recovery measures, such as: modified timing for dam releases, reservoir drawdown, and flow augmentation in the Columbia River basin, on the regional agricultural sector are evaluated. Combined, these measures would increase power rates, grain transportation costs, and irrigation water costs and reduce the supply of water to irrigators. We quantify these input cost and quantity changes and combine them into seven recovery scenarios for analysis. Results suggest that drawdown and/or minor reductions in irrigation water diversions would reduce producers' profits by less than 1% of baseline levels. However, the most extreme scenario-a long drawdown period combined with a large reduction in irrigation diversions-would reduce producers' profits by $35 million (2.5%) annually. That effect is magnified at the local level; of the $35 million decline in annual profits, more than $27 million occur in southern Idaho and eastern Oregon. The federal government would bear these costs if it acquires water via voluntary transactions.
... 3. See Schuhmann and Easley (2000) and Stage and Kirchner (2005). 4. See Booth (1989); Paulsen and Wetnstedt (1995) and Huang (1997). 5. See Stage (2014). ...
Article
Full-text available
Open access is a well-known externality problem in fisheries causing excess capacity and overfishing. Due to global warming, externality problems from CO2 emissions have gained increased interest. With two externality problems, a first-best optimum can be achieved by using two regulatory instruments. However, solving the open-access externality problem also affects CO2 emissions. By using a bio-economic model covering Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and the Faroe Islands, it is shown that regulations of the open-access externality problem have a large effect on both economic performance and CO2 emissions, while an additional CO2 regulation only has minor effects. The second-best solution achieved by only regulating open access reduces emissions by approximately 50% compared to current fisheries, with the exception of Iceland, which already has a well-developed fisheries management system.
... Booker and Young (1994) examined salinity problems in the Colorado River basin, and showed that efficient allocation would require large transfers from existing consumptive users in the upper basin. Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) applied an optimization framework to the Columbia River basin to examine the cost and biological tradeoffs to rebuild salmonid populations. ...
Article
Full-text available
This research examines a spatially explicit allocation of habitat restoration activities in an Oregon watershed to meet water temperature targets for the benefit of endangered salmonid fish species. Integrating hydrological, biological and economic models, a series of optimization problems are investigated for different policy targets including temperature reductions and enhanced fish populations. Results indicated that the heterogeneous nature of riparian conditions and stream morphology needs to be considered if restoration activities are to be allocated efficiently in a watershed. We also found that it is less costly to implement restoration activities in tributaries if the objective is to maximize stream length where water temperatures decrease by a certain degree. Although temperature reductions are primarily achieved by shading in nearby reaches, if a desired level of temperature reductions increases, then it is necessary to apply restoration efforts in remote reaches.
... how interventions change habitat accessibility). As a result more sophisticated methods have been developed that account for barrier interdependencies at the catchment-scale by analysing river systems as spatial networks, calculating overall connectivity as a function of the connectedness of the river stretches that comprise the fragmented river network (Paulsen and Wernstedt, 1995;Kuby et al., 2005;O'Hanley and Tomberlin, 2005;Cote et al., 2009;Zheng et al., 2009;O'Hanley, 2011;McKay et al., 2013;Branco et al., 2014). ...
Article
Full-text available
(1) The potential for catchment-scale connectivity modelling to help plan the restoration of connectivity in fragmented river systems is not yet well understood. In the present study the importance of two interrelated aspects of such modelling in determining predictions of connectivity are explored: (1) uncertainty in the passability of partial barriers (such as fish passes) and how the passabilities of series of partial barriers combine, and (2) temporal variation in connectivity due to flow. (2) Connectivity for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) and European perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) are modelled under alternative restoration strategies in the heavily impounded Don Catchment UK using two different methods for simulating the combined passability of series of partial barriers. Catchment-scale hydraulic and connectivity modelling were integrated using a novel method to account for the effect of flow on connectivity, achieved by consideration of flow-fish pass efficiency relationships and the treatment of gaps between habitat patches as partial barrier. (3) Modelled connectivity is very sensitive to uncertainty in barrier passability and the method used to simulate the combined passability of series of partial barriers. Flow also has a strong and complex effect on connectivity, with predicted temporal patterns being particularly dependent on how the combined impact of series of barriers is modelled. The sensitivity of the modelling constrains its capacity to predict the outcome of alternative connectivity restoration strategies. Nevertheless it does serve as a tool to think critically about connectivity restoration. If applied thoughtfully in full awareness of its limitations it can still be used assist in the planning and appraisal of alternative restoration options. (4) The modelling also provides a number of important practical insights. It shows that series of fish passes may be ineffective unless they operate at very high efficiencies. Small changes to flow-fish pass efficiency relationships can have a large effect on temporal patterns in connectivity. Overall fish pass efficiency is comprised of attraction and passage efficiencies which may differ in the extent to which they are determined by random processes. This likely has significant implications for the nature of the combined passability of series of fish passes.
... While there are few examples involving the use of optimization techniques for locating new hydropower dams ( Chang et al., 1992 ), optimization has been applied frequently in the context of cost-effectively removing dams and other river infrastructure to improve river connectivity. Some examples include: Paulsen andWernstedt (1995) , O'Hanley andTomberlin (2005) , O'Hanley (2011) , O'Hanley, Wright, Diebel, Fedora, andSoucy (2013) , and Neeson et al. (2015) . A key feature of these studies and other similar optimization based approaches is the explicit consideration of the spatial structure of barrier networks and the interactive effects that barrier removal decisions have on longitudinal connectivity. ...
Article
We address the problem of locating small hydropower dams in an environmentally friendly manner. We propose the use of a multi-objective optimization model to maximize total hydropower production, while limiting negative impacts on river connectivity. Critically, we consider the so called “ backwater effects” that dams have on power generation at nearby upstream sites via changes in water surface profiles. We further account for the likelihood that migratory fish and other aquatic species can successfully pass hydropower dams and other artificial/natural barriers and how this is influenced by backwater effects. Although naturally represented in nonlinear form, we manage through a series of linearization steps to formulate a mixed integer linear programing model. We illustrate the utility of our proposed framework using a case study from England and Wales. Interestingly, we show that for England and Wales, a region heavily impacted by a large number of existing river barriers, that installation of small hydropower dams fitted with even moderately effective fish passes can, in fact, create a win-win situation that results in increased hydropower and improved river connectivity.
... In this chapter, we review some of these studies and comment on the use of economic evaluation of the hatchery and other enhancement facilities. Economic assessment methods can be applied to any form of salmon stock enhancement, including riparian habitat restoration and fish passage improvements (Paulsen and Wernstedt, 1995;Willis et al., 1998;Wu et al., 2000). Generally, an economic assessment is contingent on, and may be severely limited by, the availability of quantitative predictions of key biological outcomes of enhancement projects. ...
Article
Full-text available
The historical, political and scientific aspects of salmon hatchery programmes designed to enhance fishery production, or to recover endangered populations, are reviewed. We start by pointing out that the establishment of hatcheries has been a political response to societal demands for harvest and conservation; given this social context, we then critically examined the levels of activity, the biological risks, and the economic analysis associated with salmon hatchery programmes. A rigorous analysis of the impacts of hatchery programmes was hindered by the lack of standardized data on release sizes and survival rates at all ecological scales, and since hatchery programme objectives are rarely defined, it was also difficult to measure their effectiveness at meeting release objectives. Debates on the genetic effects of hatchery programmes on wild fish have been dominated by whether correct management practices can reduce negative outcomes, but we noted that there has been an absence of programmatic research approaches addressing this important issue. Competitive interactions between hatchery and wild fish were observed to be complex, but studies researching approaches to reduce these interactions at all ecological scales during the entire salmon life history have been rare, and thus are not typically considered in hatchery management. Harvesting of salmon released from fishery enhancement hatcheries likely impacts vulnerable wild populations; managers have responded to this problem by mass marking hatchery fish, so that fishing effort can be directed towards hatchery populations. However, we noted that the effectiveness of this approach is dependant on accurate marking and production of hatchery fish with high survival rates, and it is not yet clear whether selective fishing will prevent overharvest of wild populations. Finally, research demonstrating disease transmission from hatchery fish to wild populations was observed to be equivocal; evidence in this area has been constrained by the lack of effective approaches to studying the fate of pathogens in the wild. We then reviewed several approaches to studying the economic consequences of hatchery activities intended to inform the social decisions surrounding programmes, but recognized that placing monetary value on conservation efforts or on hatcheries that mitigate cultural groups' loss of historical harvest opportunities may complicate these analyses. We noted that economic issues have rarely been included in decision making on hatchery programmes. We end by identifying existing major knowledge gaps, which, if filled, could contribute towards a fuller understanding of the role that hatchery programmes could play in meeting divergent goals. However, we also recognized that many management recommendations arising from such research may involve trade-offs between different risks, and that decisions about these trade-offs must occur within a social context. Hatcheries have played an important role in sustaining some highly endangered populations, and it is possible that reform of practices will lead to an increase in the number of successful programmes. However, a serious appraisal of the role of hatcheries in meeting broader needs is urgently warranted and should take place at the scientific, but more effectively, at the societal level.
... Economists have also examined trade-offs between optimizing water allocations for salmon habitat and using water for hydropower generation. For example, Paulsen and Wernstedt (1995) find that management actions that mitigate the degradation of habitat or enhance reproduction in the Columbia River Basin's tributary streams, such as removal of barriers to migration in streams and hatchery operations, are likely more cost-effective than actions that attempt to facilitate migration of the species through the main stem. Using an optimization model for the Willamette River watershed of Oregon, Kuby et al. (2005) find that removing twelve dams reconnects 52 percent of the basin to the sea, thus enhancing salmon migration and spawning, while sacrificing only 1.6 percent of hydropower and water-storage capacity, but that additional benefits to salmon would incur increasing per-unit economic costs. ...
... Our study is similar to analyses by Paulsen & Wernstedt (1995) and Yonts & Rettig (1997), but applies a more recently constructed salmon-population model along with recent estimates of the D value and recovery costs. We also assess some measures (dam breaching, Caspian tern removal) that have not been studied with cost-effectiveness analysis. ...
Article
The purpose of this paper is to provide a classification of the literature concerning the application of the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to evaluate management measures for the improvement of watershed quality. This literature focuses on eutrophication from agricultural runoff and industrial activities. The knowledge of the cost-environmental effectiveness of a management practice/technique or of a market-based instrument (economic instruments, environmental agreements) as well as an understanding of which quantitative and qualitative data are needed for the application of CEA could be used as a tool, in the management processes, for the identification of the appropriate policy measures for each case study-watershed. From this classification effort results that according to the environmental target and the considered assumptions for the leaching of nutrients different management measures and different mix of these measures provide a cost-effective diminution of watershed pollution. The decrease of agricultural run-off water pollution is a priority and organic farming, new tillage practices, and catch crops are recommended. Moreover, wetlands restoration is described as a low-cost option. Tradable permits and environmental agreements under an appropriate management design are proposed for the decrease of pollutants caused by industrial activities. However, the positive interaction of these measures with stakeholders is the decisive factor for their application and effectiveness and also the least costly way.
Article
Full-text available
The spatial and dynamic pattern of landscape changes has a profound effect on the supply of environmental services, including the provision of habitat for fish and wildlife. Spatial heterogeneity is a common feature of landscapes in the Pacific Northwest, most notably in areas important to the production of salmonid fish species. This heterogeneity complicates attempts to design and implement policies to conserve the stocks of such species. To date, millions of dollars have been spent to improve habitat for salmonids, with mixed success. This research examines the spatial implications of habitat restoration activities for the benefit of endangered salmonid fish species. A theoretical model defining an economically efficient allocation of restoration practices is developed for a hypothetical stream with a range of hydrological and spatial characteristics. An integrated hydrological, biological and economic modeling approach is then developed, and an empirical analysis is applied to the upper Grande Ronde River basin in northeastern Oregon. Results of these analyses indicate that the heterogeneous nature of riparian conditions and stream morphology has a substantial effect on the efficacy of restoration activities. The minimum cost allocation of restoration activities for small temperature reductions is to apply restoration efforts to nearby upstream reaches, while cumulative effects become important as the magnitude of desired temperature reduction increases. However, as the magnitude of desired temperature reductions increases, temperature reduction per dollar of restoration efforts decreases rapidly. In terms of specific riparian restoration efforts, passive restoration is preferred to active restoration as the magnitude of desired temperature reductions decreases and / or as the time frame considered is increased. It is also less costly in general to implement restoration activities in tributaries if the objective is to maximize stream length where water temperatures decrease by a specific amount. When two targeting options are compared (a fish abundance goal vs. a temperature reduction goal), this study found that temperature targeting is inefficient in the sense that it is possible to produce a larger salmonid population with the same budget, and that the levels of temperature targets have significant impacts on fishery benefits. Graduation date: 2004
Article
Water temperature is an important factor affecting aquatic life within the stream environment. Cold water species, such as salmonids, are particularly susceptible to elevated water temperatures. This paper examines the economic value of short‐term water temperature forecasts for salmonid management. Forecasts may have economic value if they allow the water resource manager to make better water allocation decisions. This study considers two applications: water releases for management of Chinook salmon in the Klamath River and leasing water from agriculture for management of steelhead trout in the John Day River. We incorporate biophysical models and water temperature distribution data into a Bayesian framework to simulate changes in fish populations and the corresponding benefit from recreational fishing and opportunity cost of water under different temperature forecast accuracies. Simulation results indicate that use of the forecasts results in increased fish production and that marginal costs decline and net benefits increase as forecast accuracy increases, suggesting that provision and use of such stream temperature forecasts would have value to society.
Article
The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) explicitly integrates economics into water management and water policy in Europe. Specifically, Article 11 and Annex III of the Directive call for a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of alternative mitigation measures as a requirement in formulating Programme of Measures (PoMs) to achieve 'good ecological status' for all waters in Europe. As agriculture is supposed to be the major contributor to diffuse water pollution, CEA of agri-environmental measures has been given paramount importance in establishing the PoMs. This paper summarises the status, significance, and methodological limitations of WFD-related CEA studies in Europe. Cases from the United Kingdom, countries surrounding the Baltic Sea and central and southern Europe were included in the review. Review results indicate that most WFD-related CEA studies: (1) were based on models of 'representative' farms without capturing the variability among real-world farms; (2) concentrate on a single ecological effect of measures or are based on cost estimates of the sectors directly involved in the pollutant-reduction programme (i.e., co-benefits, trade-offs, and external costs were not examined); and (3) did not incorporate uncertainties in both cost and effectiveness estimates. Based on the review results, the paper suggests policy implications and recommendations for future research in the field.
Article
Habitat restoration is a key strategy for recovering imperiled species, and planning habitat restoration activities cost effectively can help advance recovery objectives. Habitat restoration planning involves decisions about where and when to undertake restoration, and what type of restoration to undertake. This article focuses on decisions about the amount of restoration to undertake for a given type, location, and time, termed intervention intensity. A return on investment framework is developed for incorporating intervention intensity into habitat restoration planning. The framework is then applied in the context of planning habitat restoration for Pacific salmon recovery as a case study. Results showed that no single intervention type or location dominated, and several returns to scale relationships emerged across the candidate interventions. Scenarios that considered interventions across multiple intensities outperformed single-intensity scenarios in terms of total benefits and cost effectiveness. These findings highlight the usefulness of exploratory return on investment analysis for prioritizing habitat restoration interventions, and underscore the importance of systematically considering how much restoration to undertake, in addition to what to do and where.
Article
Runs of salmon in the Columbia Basin in the north-western United States have declined dramatically over the past 50 years, due to hydropower development, habitat degradation, over-harvest and other causes. This article describes a suite of models that analyze the biological effectiveness and financial costs of strategies designed to meet harvest and escapement goals for nearly 80 stocks of salmon simultaneously. Results suggest that finding a cost-effective solution requires that all aspects of the salmon life-cycle must be analyzed simultaneously. Policy implications and difficulties in using this modeling approach to inform regional decision-making also are discussed.
Article
Economic and social variables, in addition to biological variables, are often critical forces in directing recovery planning for threatened and endangered populations. Although including these variables in scientific analyses for recovery planning may be important, there is little agreement on how to integrate the relevant disciplines. The dilemma associated with interdisciplinary collaboration is that, while a diversity of values and perspectives is unavoidable, this diversity stands as a barrier to agreement on an integrative research approach. We describe a general framework for interdisciplinary analysis designed to support recovery planning that does not rely on choosing a single interdisciplinary approach. Rather, it uses value conflicts potentially arising in an interdisciplinary setting to select a diverse set of scientific approaches relevant to a particular conservation effort. We apply this framework to recovery planning for threatened Snake River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and examine the implications of conflicts over the acceptability of institutional change, technological solutions, and transferability of recovery effort across groups responsible for the current status of the species.
Book
The shortage of fresh water is likely to be one of the most pressing issues of the twenty-first century. A UNESCO report predicts that as many as 7 billion people will face shortages of drinking water by 2050. Here, David Lewis Feldman examines river-basin management cases around the world to show how fresh water can be managed to sustain economic development while protecting the environment. He argues that policy makers can employ adaptive management to avoid making decisions that could harm the environment, to recognize and correct mistakes, and to monitor environmental and socioeconomic changes caused by previous policies. To demonstrate how adaptive management can work, Feldman applies it to the Delaware, Susquehanna, Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint, Sacramento-San Joaquin, and Columbia river basins. He assesses the impacts of runoff pollution and climate change, the environmental-justice aspects of water management, and the prospects for sustainable fresh water management. Case studies of the Murray-Darling basin in Australia, the Rhine and Danube in Europe, the Zambezi in Africa, and the Rio de la Plata in South America reveal the impediments to, and opportunities for, adaptive management on a global scale. Feldman's comprehensive investigation and practical analysis bring new insight into the global and political challenges of preserving and managing one of the planet's most important resources.
Article
Full-text available
Averting climate change may have substantial water-resource-related benefits to agricultural, industrial, recreational, and residential household users. Economic benefits are usually estimated assuming that individuals face no uncertainty in decision making, but the benefits from averting climate change will accrue primarily to individuals in the future. Predicting future benefits is usually done using ex ante economic methods, and propagating uncertainty or specifyng the appropriate distributions in estimating the magnitude of the benefits is a problem. After describing the key issues relating climate change and water resources, the paper explains why economic theory fails to demonstrate which method appears more reasonable than the other. Alternatively, we might attempt to estimate the benefits from averting climate change using a benefits analysis of similar events that have already occurred. Many suggestions for conducting a benefits transfer, including one in the area of water-based recreation, are offered as ways to glean something about possible water-resource-related benefits from averting climate change.
Article
The role of economics in environmental regulation lies at the heart of the Supreme Court’s 2009 decision in Entergy Corporation v. Riverkeeper. In Riverkeeper, the Supreme Court determined that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has the authority to conduct cost-benefit analysis when promulgating technology standards for cooling water intake structures at existing power plants pursuant to the Clean Water Act. Like many environmental regulations, the Clean Water Act is silent on the use of such analysis. Writing for the majority, Justice Scalia interpreted the Act to permit the EPA’s reliance on cost-benefit analysis. As Justice Breyer posits in his concurrence, in times of limited resources and dire environmental problems it is wasteful to force an industry to spend billions to save one more fish while those resources may be more wisely spent resolving other environmental woes. This Note argues that such an approach can only work when the environmental woes are properly defined. In the case at hand, the EPA grossly oversimplified the environmental problem and financial burdens and thus miscalculated the environmental and financial benefits of the best technology available. By ignoring the environmental harm caused by power plant water use and consumption, the EPA did not factor in the potentially huge environmental benefits of restoring instream flows and the financial and social benefit of averting a crisis in the energy-water nexus.
Article
Full-text available
Asymmetric information between fishermen and the regulator is important within fisheries. The regulator may have less information about stock sizes, prices, costs, effort, productivity and catches than fishermen. With asymmetric information, a strong analytical tool is principal-agent analysis. In this paper, we study asymmetric information about productivity within a principal-agent framework and a tax on fishing effort is considered. It is shown that a second best optimum can be achieved if the effort tax is designed such that low-productivity agents rent is exhausted, while high-productivity agents receive an information rent. The information rent is equivalent to the total incentive cost. The incentive costs arise as we want to reveal the agent's type.
Book
Full-text available
Few doubt the impact from human activities on global warming and the negative consequences of rising temperatures for both terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Efficient policy instruments are needed ...
Article
Traditional sectors, such as agriculture and fishing, often receive special treatment from policymakers because such sectors are perceived to be associated with traditional cultural public good values. However, these values are often difficult to measure, and few attempts have been made to do so. The recent European Union (EU) eel management directive creates an unusually clear-cut tradeoff between eel fishing and other agents affecting the European eel population. It is possible, therefore, to directly measure the perceived public good value of the eel fishery in terms of other economic costs that policymakers are willing to incur in order to maintain eel fishing. Using Swedish data, we find that Swedish policymakers value the public good aspect of the remaining Swedish eel fishery at a minimum of SEK 34 million (approximately EUR 3.4 million) annually, which is more than the commercial eel fishery's actual production value.
Article
The role of economics in environmental regulation lies at the heart of the Supreme Court's 2009 decision in Entergy Corporation v. Riverkeeper. In Riverkeeper, the Supreme Court determined that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has the authority to conduct cost-benefit analysis when promulgating technology standards for cooling water intake structures at existing power plants pursuant to the Clean Water Act. Like many environmental regulations, the Clean Water Act is silent on the use of such analysis. Writing for the majority, Justice Scalia interpreted the Act to permit the EPA's reliance on cost-benefit analysis. As Justice Breyer posits in his concurrence, in times of limited resources and dire environmental problems it is wasteful to force an industry to spend billions to save one more fish while those resources may be more wisely spent resolving other environmental woes. This Note argues that such an approach can only work when the environmental woes are properly defined. In the case at hand, the EPA grossly oversimplified the environmental problem and financial burdens and thus miscalculated the environmental and financial benefits of the best technology available. By ignoring the environmental harm caused by power plant water use and consumption, the EPA did not factor in the potentially huge environmental benefits of restoring instream flows and the financial and social benefit of averting a crisis in the energy-water nexus.
Article
Low water levels in the Great Lakes have recently had significant financial impacts on the region's commercial shipping, which transports hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of bulk goods each year. Cargo capacity is a function of a ship's draft, the distance between water level and the ship's bottom, and lower water levels force ships to reduce cargo loads to prevent running aground in shallow harbors and locks. Financial risk transfer instruments, such as index-based insurance contracts, may provide an adaptable method for managing these financial risks. In this work, a relationship between water levels and shipping revenues is developed and used in an actuarial analysis of the frequency and magnitude of revenue losses. This analysis is used to develop a standardized suite of binary financial contracts, which are indexed to water levels and priced according to predefined thresholds. These contracts are then combined to form hedging portfolios with different objectives for the shippers. Results suggest that binary contracts could substantially reduce the risk of financial losses during low lake level periods and at a relatively low cost of only one to three percent of total revenues, depending on coverage level.
Article
Water resources and transportation infrastructure such as dams and culverts provide countless socio-economic benefits; however, this infrastructure can also disconnect the movement of organisms, sediment, and water through river ecosystems. Trade-offs associated with these competing costs and benefits occur globally, with applications in barrier addition (e.g. dam and road construction), reengineering (e.g. culvert repair), and removal (e.g. dam removal and aging infrastructure). Barrier prioritization provides a unique opportunity to: (i) restore and reconnect potentially large habitat patches quickly and effectively and (ii) avoid impacts prior to occurrence in line with the mitigation hierarchy (i.e. avoid then minimize then mitigate). This paper synthesizes 46 watershed-scale barrier planning studies and presents a procedure to guide barrier prioritization associated with connectivity for aquatic organisms. We focus on practical issues informing prioritization studies such as available data sets, methods, techniques, and tools. We conclude with a discussion of emerging trends and issues in barrier prioritization and key opportunities for enhancing the body of knowledge. Copyright
Article
Full-text available
Open access is a well-known externality problem in fisheries causing excess capacity and overfishing. Due to global warming, externality problems from CO₂ emissions have gained increased interest. With two externality problems, a first-best optimum can be achieved by using two regulatory instruments. However, solving the open-access externality problem also affects CO₂ emissions. By using a bio-economic model covering Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and the Faroe Islands, it is shown that regulations of the openaccess externality problem have a large effect on both economic performance and CO₂ emissions, while an additional CO₂ regulation only has minor effects. The second-best solution achieved by only regulating open access reduces emissions by approximately 50% compared to current fisheries, with the exception of Iceland, which already has a well-developed fisheries management system.
Article
The mandate to increase endangered salmon populations in the Columbia River Basin of North America has created a complex, controversial resource-management issue. We constructed an integrated assessment model as a tool for analyzing biological-economic trade-offs in recovery of Snake River spring- and summer-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). We merged 3 frameworks: a salmon-passage model to predict migration and survival of smolts; an age-structured matrix model to predict long-term population growth rates of salmon stocks; and a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine a set of least-cost management alternatives for achieving particular population growth rates. We assessed 6 individual salmon-management measures and 76 management alternatives composed of one or more measures. To reflect uncertainty, results were derived for different assumptions of effectiveness of smolt transport around dams. Removal of an estuarine predator, the Caspian Tern (Sterna caspia), was cost-effective and generally increased long-term population growth rates regardless of transport effectiveness. Elimination of adult salmon harvest had a similar effect over a range of its cost estimates. The specific management alternatives in the cost-effective set depended on assumptions about transport effectiveness. On the basis of recent estimates of smolt transport effectiveness, alternatives that discontinued transportation or breached dams were prevalent in the cost-effective set, whereas alternatives that maximized transportation dominated if transport effectiveness was relatively high. More generally, the analysis eliminated 80–90% of management alternatives from the cost-effective set. Application of our results to salmon management is limited by data availability and model assumptions, but these limitations can help guide research that addresses critical uncertainties and information. Our results thus demonstrate that linking biology and economics through integrated models can provide valuable tools for science-based policy and management. Resumen: El mandato para incrementar las poblaciones de salmón en peligro en la Cuenca del Río Columbia de Norte América ha creado controversia en el tema de manejo de recursos. Desarrollamos un modelo de evaluación integrada como una herramienta para analizar el balance biológico-económico de la recuperación de salmón (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) en el Río Snake. Combinamos 3 marcos de referencia: un modelo de pasadizo para salmón para pronosticar la migración y supervivencia de alevines; un modelo matricial estructurado por edades para pronosticar las tasas de crecimiento de la población de salmón a largo plazo; y un análisis de rentabilidad para determinar un conjunto de alternativas de manejo de costo mínimo para obtener tasas particulares de crecimiento poblacional. Evaluamos 6 medidas individuales de manejo de salmón y 76 alternativas compuestas de una o más medidas. Para reflejar la incertidumbre, los resultados fueron derivados de diferentes supuestos de la efectividad del transporte de alevines alrededor de las presas. La remoción de un depredador estuarino, Sterna caspia, fue rentable y en general incrementó las tasas de crecimiento poblacional a largo plazo independientemente de la efectividad de transporte. La eliminación de la captura de salmones adultos tuvo un efecto similar sobre un rango de sus estimaciones de costos. Las alternativas de manejo específicas en el conjunto rentable dependieron de los supuestos sobre la efectividad de transporte. Sobre la base de estimaciones recientes de la efectividad de transporte de alevines, las alternativas que descontinuaron el transporte o que traspasaron presas fueron prevalentes en el conjunto rentable, mientras que las alternativas que maximizaron la transportación fueron dominantes si la efectividad de transporte era relativamente alta. Más generalmente, el análisis eliminó entre 80 y 90% de las alternativas de manejo del conjunto rentable. La aplicación de nuestros resultados al manejo de salmón está limitada por la disponibilidad de datos y los supuestos del modelo, pero estas limitaciones pueden ayudar a conducir investigación que aborde la información e incertidumbre críticas. Por lo tanto, nuestros resultados demuestran que la combinación de biología y economía por medio de modelos integrados puede proporcionar herramientas valiosas para la política y el manejo basados en ciencia la.
Article
Full-text available
Survival or extinction of an endangered species is inherently stochastic. We develop statistical methods for estimating quantities related to growth rates and extinction probabilities from time series data on the abundance of a single population. The statistical methods are based on a stochastic model of exponential growth arising from the biological theory of age- or stage-structured populations. The model incorporates the so-called environmental type of stochastic fluctuations and yields a lognormal probability distribution of population abundance. Calculation of maximum likelihood estimates of the two unknown parameters in this model reduces to performing a simple linear regression. We describe techniques for rigorously testing and evaluating whether the model fits a given data set. Various growth- and extinction-related quantities are functions of the two parameters, including the continuous rate of increase, the finite rate of increase, the geometric finite rate of increase, the probability of reaching a lower threshold population size, the mean, median, and most likely time of attaining the threshold, and the projected population size. Maximum likelihood estimates and minimum variance unbiased estimates of these quantities are described in detail. We provide example analyses of data on the Whooping Crane (Grus americana), grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) in Yellowstone, Kirtland's Warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii, California Condor (Gymnogyps californianus), Puerto Rican Parrot (Amazona vittata), Palila (Loxioides balleui), and Laysan Finch (Telespyza cantans). The model results indicate a favorable outlook for the Whooping Crane, but long-term unfavorable prospects for the Yellowstone grizzly bear population and for Kirtland's Warbler. Results for the California Condor, in a retrospective analysis, indicate a virtual emergency existed in 1980. The analyses suggest that the Puerto Rican Parrot faces little risk of extinction from ordinary environmental fluctuations, provided intensive management efforts continue. However, the model does not account for the possibility of freak catastrophic events (hurricanes, fires, etc.), which are likely the most severe source of risk to the Puerto Rican Parrot, as shown by the recent decimation of this population by Hurricane Hugo. Model parameter estimates for the Palila and the Laysan Finch have wide uncertainty due to the extreme fluctuations in the population sizes of these species. In general, the model fits the example data sets well. We conclude that the model, and the associated statistical methods, can be useful for investigating various scientific and management questions concerning species preservation.
Article
Because species survival is not certain, the decision to "save" a species is not an all-or-nothing choice but rather a marginal one. The appropriate unit for both benefit and cost functions is the likelihood of survival and the appropriate question is how certain we want to be of species survival. The intensity of the species preservation debate is also fired by strong equity concerns. We illustrate these points for the case of the northern spotted owl by constructing a marginal cost curve for its survival and by disaggregating welfare loss by region and by market level.