The Impact of a Customs Union between Turkey and the EU on Turkey's Exports to the EU

Universitätsmedizin Göttingen, Göttingen, Lower Saxony, Germany
JCMS Journal of Common Market Studies (Impact Factor: 1.31). 02/2007; 45(09):719-743. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5965.2007.00728.x
Source: RePEc


This article investigates Turkey's sectoral trade flows to the EU based on panel data from the period 1988 to 2002. Turkey's 16 most important export sectors are analysed. Emphasis is placed on the role of price competition, EU protection and transport costs in the export trade between Turkey and the EU. The empirical model used is an extended version of the gravity model. This study is also a contribution to the current discussion of whether Turkey should be granted full EU membership or a privileged partnership with the EU, which for Turkey would mean improved access to the EU market for its products, among other benefits. Our investigation focuses on the latter policy outcome: the impact of deepening the customs union between Turkey and the EU and applying the common agricultural policy (CAP) to Turkish agricultural exports. To this end, the impact of the 1996 customs union covering most industrial goods and processed agricultural goods, is evaluated on a sectoral level. We also perform simulations to quantify the impact of the potential inclusion of agricultural goods, as well as iron and steel and products thereof, into the full customs union between Turkey and the EU which is still to come. Copyright (c) 2007 The Author(s); Journal compilation (c) 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Download full-text


Available from: Sebastian Vollmer, Jan 13, 2016
  • Source
    • "Reel dış gelir (+), reel kur (-) Rodriguez ve Samy (2003) 1950-1998 ABD İhracat/GSYH Zaman serisi (yapısal kırılmalarla) Çalışılan saat, iş kazalarının sayısı (+), sendikalaşma oranı (-), reel faiz oranı (borç verme oranı-TÜFE) Lehman vd. (2007) 1988-2002 Türkiye'nin AB ülkelerine ihracatı Türkiye'nin 16 HS sektöründe AB ülkelerine ihracatı Panel-yerçekimi Ticaret ortağının reel geliri (+), ticaret ortaklarının kişi başı gelirlerinin farlı (karışık), reel kur (sektöre özgü korumaları göz önünde bulundurarak hesaplanmış)(-), Türkiye'nin AB dışı rakiplerinin reel kuru ("

    Preview · Article · Jun 2014
  • Source
    • "However, the real world situation is not so simple to be represented by such a few factors. Besides the traditional variables of GDP and distance, researches in this particular field have frequently employed other factors like GDP per capita (Kang and Fratianni 2006, Kalirajan 2007, Lee and Park 2007, Bun and Klaasen 2007), population (Elliott 2007, Tzouvelekas 2007, Papazoglou 2007), exchange rates (Tang 2005, Thorpe and Zhang 2005, Kandogan 2005, Nowak-Lehmann et al. 2007), geographic size (Soloaga and Winters 2001, Kucera and Sarna 2006), infrastructure (Martinez – Zarzoso and Suarez – Burguet 2005, Carrere 2006), common country characteristics like language, border, currency unions, signatories to bilateral trade agreements (Rose 2000, Glick and Rose 2002, Melitz 2007, Grant and Lambert 2008, Henderson and Millimet 2008)etc. to effectively pinpoint the most important factors affecting the bilateral trade between countries. "
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The trade environment of Pakistan is facing a chronic trade deficit. The primary reason for the deficit are the exports of Pakistan being flowing towards specific trade partners and secondly, the lack of export diversification. As such, this paper examines the main factors behind the export performance of Pakistan by estimating a gravity model using panel estimation for the period of 1995 - 2011 across 142 countries. The estimation results reveal the main determinants of Pakistan's exports being the GDP of importer and exporter country, dummy variables of language, religion, trade agreements and membership of the world trade organization. The study also reveal that trade costs and common border does not play a role in boosting the trade of Pakistan. As such, the study suggest that Pakistan's exports be diversified and directed towards countries in close proximity and where trading costs are low.
    Full-text · Article · Apr 2013 · Pakistan Journal of Statistics
  • Source
    • "However, the other side of the coin is equally important, as the agreement is based on the principle of reciprocity. Evidence indicates that in the short-run certain sectors would be disadvantaged, but in the long run certain benefits would be realized (Nowak-Lehmann et al., 2007). That is, the customs union is envisaged to have a positive long-term impact on the Turkish economy in terms of increased competitiveness and stability. "
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to consider competitive strategy choices of Turkish manufacturing firms operating in EU markets and their action programs in responding to emerging opportunities and threats led by recent developments in Turkey-EU relations. Design/methodology/approach – Drawing on a sample of 79 large size Turkish manufacturing firms, the relative use of competitive strategies and action programs by sample firms operating in EU markets was examined by undertaking both descriptive and multivariate statistical analyses. Findings – The most heavily used competitive strategy choices were found to be growth strategies aiming to extend current product lines with related products through enabling standardization and technology sharing. The highest ranked action programs implemented by Turkish manufacturing firms focused on enabling integration. The findings of the study indicated that the relative use of competitive strategy options varied to a certain extent between the market entry modes of Turkish firms (equity based and non-equity based) serving the EU markets. However, no variation was found between the implementation level of action programs and the choice of a particular market entry mode by sample firms. Research limitations/implications – While the variation in the implementation level of several of the competitive strategies appears to be readily justifiable, the reason for the variation is not always clear. It is also necessary to extend the analysis to consider the relative use of strategy options and action programs along with other variables, such as the governance and transaction cost variables. Originality/value – Based on a sample of large size manufacturing firms, this study is the first attempt to identify, classify and explain the key competitive strategy choices and action programs implemented by Turkish firms in EU markets.
    Full-text · Article · Jul 2008 · Journal of Management Development
Show more