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Bestseller Lists and Product Variety: The Case of Book Sales

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Abstract

This paper uses detailed weekly data on sales of hardcover fiction books to evaluate the impact of the New York Times bestseller list on sales and product variety. In order to circumvent the obvious problem of simultaneity of sales and bestseller status, the analysis exploits time lags and accidental omissions in the construction of the list. The empirical results indicate that appearing on the list leads to a modest increase in sales for the average book, and that the effect is more dramatic for bestsellers by debut authors. The paper discusses how the additional concentration of demand on top-selling books could lead to a reduction in the privately optimal number of books to publish. However, the data suggest the opposite is true: the market expansion effect of bestseller lists appears to dominate any business stealing from non-bestselling titles.

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... Die Informationsbeschaffung über die Lesewürdigkeit des Buches -z. B. durch Kritiker oder Bestsellerlisten (Clement/Proppe/Sambeth, 2006: 2ff.;Sorensen, 2004: 2ff.) -kann jedoch deutlich durch das Marketing beeinflusst werden. ...
... ingegen Informationsquellen wie Verlagsverzeichnisse, das Verkaufsgespräch mit einem Vertreter sowie weitere direkte Kommunikationsmaßnahmen der Verlage eine große Rolle. Eine spezielle Werbeform stellt die Bestsellerwerbung dar, bei der das Buch gezielt über die Nennung von Autor und Bestsellerlistenrang positioniert wird (Lauterbach, 1979: 95ff.;Sorensen, 2004). Die zentrale Fragestellung für einen Verlag betrifft hier die optimale Allokation des Werbebudgets. Bei der Vielzahl der Bücher im Verlagsprogramm muss eine Auswahl stattfinden, so dass bestimmte Bücher gezielt beworben werden können. Darüber hinaus ist auch das gewählte Werbemedium relevant, da die empirischen Untersuchungen hier durc ...
... It also is important to consider the decision-making processes of "support media" such as magazine and newspaper book review sections and television and radio talk shows, which often will use best-seller lists in their decision making regarding which authors or books to feature (see Shandler, 2001), which again enhances the sales prospects for those books that already are performing well. Clearly then, best-seller lists operate, to a certain degree, as "self-fulfilling prophecies" (Truitt, 1998, p. 1), with the appearance of books on best-seller lists having a demonstrable impact on a book's sales (Ipsos Book Trends, 2002;Sorensen, 2004). ...
... In this regard, however, the book publishing industry is similar to other sectors of the media industry-particularly television-where certain content providers have seen the methodological shortcomings of established systems as advantageous to their interests, and have consequently sought to maintain them in the face of concerted efforts at methodological improvement (see Napoli, 2003a). However, perhaps more so than in other media industry sectors, the publishing industry's market information regime serves not only as a reflection of consumer demand but also as a driver of consumer demand (Sorensen, 2004). ...
Article
This article presents a case study of the transition to a new market information regime, via an analysis of the transition to the BookScan system of measuring book sales and the potential impact of this new measurement system on how publishing industry decision makers perceive—and respond to—their competitive environment. This study critically examines the traditional systems of audience measurement—and their uses—in book publishing, as well as the diffusion process for the BookScan system. This study finds many similarities between the introduction and potential impact of BookScan and the introduction and impact of new audience measurement systems in other media, such as stronger resistance from content producers (e.g., publishers) than from other stakeholders (e.g., agents, retailers), as well as a likelihood that widespread usage of the new measurement system will contribute to greater fragmentation and greater volatility of the measured industry.
... After the artist delivers the album, the label decides whether to release it and 26 This may partly explain why book sales are much more skewed than music sales. (See Sorensen [19] for some evidence and discussion of the skewed distribution of sales for hardcover fiction.) 27 Sorensen [19] documents a similar phenomenon of success breeding success in the market for books: appearing on the New York Times' bestseller list has a direct positive impact on sales. ...
... (See Sorensen [19] for some evidence and discussion of the skewed distribution of sales for hardcover fiction.) 27 Sorensen [19] documents a similar phenomenon of success breeding success in the market for books: appearing on the New York Times' bestseller list has a direct positive impact on sales. Also, the effect is negligible for well-known authors, but quite large for debut authors—a result that parallels the finding here that backward spillovers are largest when a hit new album is released by a relatively unknown artist. ...
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This paper studies the role of consumer learning in the demand for recorded music by examining the impact of an artist%u2019s new album on sales of past and future albums. Using detailed album sales data for a sample of 355 artists, we show that the release of a new album increases sales of old albums, and the increase is substantial and permanent%u2014especially if the new release is a hit. Various patterns in the data suggest the source of the spillover is information: a new release causes some uninformed consumers to learn about their preferences for the artist%u2019s past albums. These information spillovers suggest that the high concentration of success across artists may partly result from a lack of information, and they have significant implications for investment and the structure of contracts between artists and record labels.
... Sin embargo, existen otros tipos de lectura y otros planos de la realidad social que son necesarios para entenderlas. Así también, la interacción entre personas tiene efectos en la lectura, tal como ocurre con el crecimiento en las ventas de los best sellers (Sorensen 2004) que indirectamente se relaciona con una expansión de la lectura. De igual forma, se puede pensar en el rol que cumplen ciertas organizaciones, como ONG, ministerios y consejos estatales, en la difusión de ciertos títulos, formas y lugares de lectura, dando paso a un rol activo en la formación de prácticas lectoras desde una dimensión institucional. ...
... The greater the number of new e-petitions, the less likely that one of these limited number of slots will be available. This emphasis on initial popularity is seen in other markets that chart popularity, such as with books (Sorensen, 2004) and music albums (Asai, 2009). In the USA the impact of having many epetitions opened on the same day is however positive, which suggests less of a competition effect between e-petitions, with less viable USA epetitions not appearing on the platform by virtue of the 150 signature threshold. ...
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Many legislators around the word are offering the use of web based e-petitioning platforms to allow their electorate to influence government policy and action. A popular e-petition can gain much coverage, both in traditional media and social media. The task then becomes how to understand what features may make an e-petition popular and hence, potentially influential. One area of investigation is the linguistic and topical content of the supporting e-petition text. This study takes an existing methodology previously applied to the American government's e-petition platform and replicates the study for the United Kingdom's equivalent platform. This allows an insight into not only the United Kingdom's e-petition process but also a comparison with a similar platform. We find that when assessing an e-petition's popularity, the control variables are significant in both countries, e-petitions in the United Kingdom are more popular if some named entities are used in the text, and that topics are commonly more influential in America.
... Further, in order to enhance the robustness of our model validation, we use two additional benchmark models that take into account some variables that might be relevant to sales on Amazon: (a) NYT m = 1 if a product is listed in the New York Times Best Seller list on day m and zero otherwise; (b) ThirdPartyPrice m that represents the lowest price from third-party sellers. As suggested by Sorensen (2004), the majority of book buyers use the New York Times Best Seller list as a signal of what is worth reading. In our data, 11 out of 72 products had appeared in the New York Times Best Seller list at least once between January 2015 ...
... The role of information in the sale of products is an important question for a variety of reasons (Goeree 2008;Hendrick and Sorensen 2009;Jin and Leslie 2003;Sorensen 2007). First, incomplete information represents a welfare loss to consumers who, were they fully informed, would prefer to watch a less popular movie more aligned to their taste than the more popular movie they were aware of. ...
... This cumulative advantage dynamic solidifies the gap between the haves and have-nots, thus inhibiting mobility. Scholars have observed similar dynamics for the consecration of baseball players (Allen and Parsons 2006), song popularity (Salganik et al. 2006), author success (Sorenson 2007), and social status on the Internet (Restivo and van de Rijt 2012). The sociological literature on cumulative advantage and inequality suggests that in a reward system in which reinforcement is strong, mobility will tend to be low. ...
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Contemporary scholarship has conceptualized modern fame as an open system in which people continually move in and out of celebrity status. This model stands in stark contrast to the traditional notion in the sociology of stratification that depicts stable hierarchies sustained through classic forces such as social structure and cumulative advantage. We investigate the mobility of fame using a unique data source containing daily records of references to person names in a large corpus of English-language media sources. These data reveal that only at the bottom of the public attention hierarchy do names exhibit fast turnover; at upper tiers, stable coverage persists around a fixed level and rank for decades. Fame exhibits strong continuity even in entertainment, on television, and on blogs, where it has been thought to be most ephemeral. We conclude that once a person's name is decoupled from the initial event that lent it momentary attention, self-reinforcing processes, career structures, and commemorative practices perpetuate fame.
... The empirical evidence on the effect of bestseller information on demand is surprisingly limited. To the best of our knowledge, the only study has been conducted by Sorensen (2004) who examines the impact of sales of books after they appear in the New York Times list. He finds that, on average, sales increase by 13-14% by being on the bestseller list. ...
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Abstract Some manufactures ,and retailers reveal which products are their bestselling items while others
... Other studies analyze the success factors of music, such as the influence of awards, genre, gender, radio airplay, and so forth on album sales (e.g., Hamlen, 1991;Moe & Fader, 2001). Although we find only limited empirical research in the book market, indications suggest that critics, star power, and genre influence a book's success (e.g., Sorensen, 2005). In summary, the indicators that influence the demand and diffusion process of hedonic goods in the media industry can be categorized into three groups: (1) environment-specific factors, (2) adopter-specific factors, and (3) product-specific factors (Figure 1). ...
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The consumption of hedonic goods, such as movies or books, involves multisensory, fantasy, and emotive aspects. Hedonic products are often consumed because of symbolic motives. As experience products, hedonic goods involve a high consumption risk for consumers; furthermore, suppliers of hedonic goods face significant competition. Because of these characteristics, hedonic goods have unique diffusion patterns. To provide an overview of these patterns, this article summarizes the current state of research regarding the diffusion of hedonic goods, assesses existing proposed models, and provides guidelines regarding estimating diffusion models. Furthermore, this article explains the influences of special product characteristics on diffusion processes. Results show that flexible diffusion models outperform the well-known Bass model, although the optimal modeling approach differs according to the product. Whereas the diffusion of movies nicely fits Gamma models, the diffusion of music requires more flexible models, such as logistic hazard or mixed Weibull.
... To our knowledge, only minor theoretical and even less empirical research has attempted to identify success factors for books (Hjorth-Andersen, 2000). The few empirical studies address only isolated success factors, such as the stardom of the author, critics and reviews, image of the publisher, bestseller lists, and plot (Greco, 1997;Sorensen, 2004;Sorensen & Rasmussen, 2004;Suzanne, 2004). Research into the success factors pertaining to other hedonic products, such as those in the film (DeVany & Walls, 1999;Litman, 1983;Ravid, 1999;Sawhney & Eliashberg, 1996) and music (Bradlow & Fader, 2001;Moe & Fader, 2001) industries, focus on additional variables and therefore are helpful for identifying some relevant determinants of book success. ...
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Because hedonic aspects of products are difficult to evaluate prior to consumption, consumers seek signals to reduce their uncertainty. Opinion leaders, such as critics, may serve as key informants to consumers. This study considers the different roles and incentives of literary critics and how they influence the success of books. Furthermore, it empirically investigates the impact of 4 book critics featured on Germany's most popular literary television show, Das Literarische Quartett, on reviewed books' success. The variety of control variables included in the mixed regression models provide results pertaining to not only the critics, but also the success factors of books in general. Book success does not depend primarily on the mere appearance of a book on a television show or a favorable review of it; rather, awareness and word-of-mouth effects seem crucial, and books are more likely to succeed if critics disagree about the quality and express extreme judgments, even if those judgments are negative.
... These mechanisms are typically imperfect, however, and evaluating their impact on what gets sold (and, by extension, what ultimately gets produced) is an important objective for empirical research. Recent papers that address this general topic include Jin and Leslie [20], which examines the effects of publicly posting restaurants' health inspection scores; Sorensen [26], which analyzes the impact of published bestseller lists on the market for books; and Jin, Kato, and List [19], which studies the informational role of professional certifiers in the market for sportscards. ...
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This paper studies the role of product discovery in the demand for recorded music. We show that releasing a new album causes a substantial and permanent increase in sales of the artist's old albums-especially if the new release is a hit. Patterns in these "backward spillovers" suggest that they result from consumers discovering the artist upon hearing the new release. To explore the implications of consumers' incomplete information, we estimate a simple, learning-based model of market demand. Our results imply that the distribution of sales is substantially more skewed than it would be if consumers were more fully informed. (c) 2009 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved..
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