Article

The Case For Sand In The Wheels Of International Finance

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Abstract

The incompatibility of pegged exchange rates, international capital mobility and national monetary autonomy is a basic postulate of open economy macroeconomies. In the present environment of high capital mobility and political uncertainty, even the possibility that governments may utilize their policy autonomy can defeat efforts to peg the exchange rate. This leaves two possibilities. One is to fix the exchange rate irrevocably through monetary unification. The other is to live with floating rates. Either way, a case can be made for "throwing sand in the wheels" of international finance. Where monetary unification is not an option, this is a may to make distinct national currencies tolerable and international money and capital markets compatible with modest national autonomy in monetary and macroeconomic policy. For. EU counties striving to create a monetary union, it is the only politically and economically feasible way of completing the transition to Stage III of the Maastricht process. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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... As early as 1972, Tobin (1978) suggested imposing a uniform tax of around 1 percent on all currency transactions in order to curb speculation. Nowadays, a tax rate of between 0.05 and 0.5 percent is being discussed (Eichengreen et al. 1995, Haq et al. 1996, Frankel 1996, Mende and Menkhoff 2003. Supporters of Tobin's proposal claim that a transaction tax favors long-term investments over short-term investments. ...
Preprint
This paper investigates - on the basis of the Cont-Bouchaud model - whether a Tobin tax can stabilize foreign exchange markets. Compared to earlier studies, this paper explicitly recognizes that a transaction tax-induced reduction in market depth may increase the price responsiveness of a given order. We find that the imposition of a transaction tax may still achieve a triple dividend: (1) exchange rate fluctuations decrease, (2) currencies are less mispriced, and (3) central authorities raise substantial tax revenues. However, if the price impact function is too sensitive with respect to market depth, stabilization may turn into destabilization.
... Τα κοινωνικά κράτη είχαν δημιουργήσει μεγάλα ελλείμματα και χρέη, 4. Για αυτό το ζήτημα, βλ. Eichengreen et al. (1994Eichengreen et al. ( , 1995. 5. Αναφορικά με την κατάρρευση του συστήματος του Μπρέτον Γουντς, βλ. Graber (1993) και Bordo & Eichengreen (2007). ...
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ΚΎΡΙΟΣ ΣΚΟΠΌΣ αυτού του κεφαλαίου είναι να εισαγάγει τους αναγνώ- στες/τριες στο επιστημονικό πεδίο της πολιτικής οικονομίας με τέτοιο τρόπο έτσι ώστε, μελετώντας το, να βγάζουν ουσιαστικά συμπεράσματα για τη λειτουργία των σύγχρονων πολιτικοοικονομικών σχέσεων που υφί- στανται τόσο στο διεθνές όσο στο περιφερειακό και το εθνικό επίπεδο.
... Since the 1970s, Tobin (1974) has been almost the only voice with significant visibility in the economics profession warning that free international financial markets with flexible exchange rates can be extremely volatile and therefore can have a "devastating impact on specific industries and whole economies" (Eichengreen, Tobin and Wyplosz, 1995). Exchange rate movements affect the international competitive position of domestic vis-à-vis foreign industries and therefore tend to depress the inducement to invest in large projects with irreversible sunk costs. ...
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Until 1973 the postwar international payments system was, in large measure, shaped by Keynes’s thesis that flexible exchange rates and free international capital mobility are incompatible with global full employment and rapid economic growth in an era of multilateral free trade (Felix, 1977-8FELIX, D. “ On drawing policy lessons from recent Latin America currency crises”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics , 20, 1997-8.). This resulted in a stable international monetary system that permitted the global economy to experience unparalleled economic growth and prosperity despite widespread capital controls and international financial market regulations. Since 1973, the financial system has grown progressively more fragile with recurrent and increasingly stressful international debt and currency liquidity crises threatening the stability of the global economy. KEYWORDS: Exchange rate regime; Market efficiency; uncertainty
... Autant dire qu'une parité irréaliste polarise apparemment les anticipations sur une parité 3 à 4 % en dessous, ce qui serait, si cela se confirmait, un résultat déjà remarquable... Peut-on perfectionner ce système en réglementant habilement la spéculation sur le marché des changes de façon à imposer un coût aux mouvements mimétiques ? C'est là le sens de plusieurs propositions faites ces dernières années, qui reviennent, selon l'image de Tobin, à " mettre des grains de sable dans les rouages " apparemment trop bien huilés de la spéculation internationale [Eichengreen, Tobin et Wyplosz, 1995]. On peut en premier lieu instaurer des taxes sur les mouvements de capitaux mais il y a peu de chances que la communauté financière internationale, qui vient de se livrer à une véritable surenchère à la baisse de la fiscalité financière, accepte un renouveau de la taxation. ...
Article
La finance internationale a fait l’objet, en quelque trente ans, de mutations particulièrement spectaculaires. Les années 1967-82 ont d’abord vu le développement d’un marché international de capitaux (le marché des eurodollars, puis plus généralement des eurodevises) non contrôlé par les autorités publiques. Ce marché a permis tout à la fois une souplesse opérationnelle inconnue jusqu’alors (pas de réserves obligatoires, fiscalité favorable...), une intégration plus forte entre marchés et surtout une solution pratique aux graves déséquilibres de paiements courants de l’époque (recyclage des pétrodollars vers les PVD). A partir de 1983, en revanche, la situation se transforme radicalement. Le changement progressif dans la nature des déséquilibres de paiements courants (stabilisation progressive, entre 1983 et 1988, des déficits des PVD et apparition du double déficit américain) rend le marché des eurocrédits inapte à assurer les nouveaux financements internationaux [Oliveira-Martins et Plihon, 1990]. On ne finance pas le déficit courant des Etats-Unis par crédit bancaire, comme on comblerait celui d’un “ vulgaire ” PVD... C’est essentiellement par l’appel aux marchés de titres que ce financement américain peut s’effectuer. Ceci contribue pour partie à engendrer un triple mouvement [Bourguinat, 1992] nécessaire à ce financement. C’est d’abord un mouvement de décloisonnement desmarchés : suppression des contrôles de change entre autres. C’est ensuite une vague de déréglementation (nouveaux produits financiers permettant de pallier les risques de taux d’intérêt et de change, tous deux devenus plus volatils). C’est enfin l’essor de la désintermédiationbancaire : montée en force de la “ titrisation ” des créances, destinée à faire porter celles-ci par les épargnants et à en diffuser ainsi le risque.
... Skrajne wyceny, dynamiczne zmiany cen instrumentów finansowych i nadmierna skłonność do ryzyka prowadzą do kryzysów (Acharya, Cooley, Richardson i Walter, 2011;Constâncio, 2017), których zażegnanie spada na barki państw. Opodatkowanie transakcji finansowych pozwala zmniejszyć wolumeny obrotu na skomplikowanych instrumentach finansowych i ograniczyć nadmierną spekulację (Shiller, 2006), zapobiegając w ten sposób powstawaniu baniek rynkowych (Eichengreen, Tobin i Wyplosz, 1995;Stiglitz, 1989;Summers i Summers, 1989). Opodatkowanie transakcji finansowych powinno przyczynić się do tego, że wykorzystujący krótki termin spekulanci będą partycypowali w budowaniu społeczeństwa dobrobytu i przestaną angażować się w jałowe aktywności spekulacyjne (Veryzhenko, Jonath i Harb, 2020). ...
Chapter
Monografia obejmuje aktualne zagadnienia z zakresu polskiego, unijnego i międzynarodowego prawa podatkowego. W pierwszej części książki rozważania koncentrują się na procedurach, instytucjach i instrumentach podatkowych już zaimplementowanych. Druga część dotyczy niedawno wprowadzonych rozwiązań podatkowych lub parapodatkowych, których skutki dla gospodarki lub społeczeństwa dopiero w przyszłości będą odczuwalne, bądź propozycji rozwiązań podatkowych. Niektóre z poruszanych tematów są obecne w dyskursie naukowym od wielu lat, jednak nie zostały wyczerpane ani nie osiągnięto w ich zakresie konsensusu (np. podatek katastralny czy opodatkowanie ekologiczne) lub dane rozwiązanie ma charakter koncepcyjny w Polsce, podczas gdy w innych państwach zostało już wdrożone (np. podatek od transakcji finansowych). Publikacja jest adresowana do osób zainteresowanych aktualnymi wyzwaniami i trendami w opodatkowaniu na poziomie krajowym, europejskim i światowym, w tym studentów kierunków prawnych i ekonomicznych.
... Skrajne wyceny, dynamiczne zmiany cen instrumentów finansowych i nadmierna skłonność do ryzyka prowadzą do kryzysów (Acharya, Cooley, Richardson i Walter, 2011;Constâncio, 2017), których zażegnanie spada na barki państw. Opodatkowanie transakcji finansowych pozwala zmniejszyć wolumeny obrotu na skomplikowanych instrumentach finansowych i ograniczyć nadmierną spekulację (Shiller, 2006), zapobiegając w ten sposób powstawaniu baniek rynkowych (Eichengreen, Tobin i Wyplosz, 1995;Stiglitz, 1989;Summers i Summers, 1989). Opodatkowanie transakcji finansowych powinno przyczynić się do tego, że wykorzystujący krótki termin spekulanci będą partycypowali w budowaniu społeczeństwa dobrobytu i przestaną angażować się w jałowe aktywności spekulacyjne (Veryzhenko, Jonath i Harb, 2020). ...
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Monografia obejmuje aktualne zagadnienia z zakresu polskiego, unijnego i międzynarodowego prawa podatkowego. Jej treści podzielono na dwie części. W pierwszej części rozważania koncentrują się na procedurach, instytucjach i instrumentach podatkowych już zaimplementowanych, a sformułowane wnioski mają głównie charakter de lege lata. W drugiej części rozważania skupiają się albo na dopiero co wprowadzonych rozwiązaniach podatkowych lub parapodatkowych, których skutki dla gospodarki lub społeczeństwa dopiero w przyszłości będą odczuwalne, bądź na propozycji rozwiązań podatkowych, stąd dominują tutaj wnioski o charakterze de lege ferenda. Przyjęty podział nie ma jednak w pełni charakteru dychotomicznego. Niektóre z poruszanych w tej części tematów są obecne w dyskursie naukowym od wielu lat, jednak nie zostały wyczerpane ani nie osiągnięto w ich zakresie konsensusu (np. podatek katastralny czy opodatkowanie ekologiczne), bądź dane rozwiązanie ma charakter koncepcyjny w Polsce, podczas gdy w innych państwach już zostało zaimplementowane (np. podatek od transakcji finansowych). Monografia dedykowana jest osobom zainteresowanym aktualnymi wyzwaniami i trendami w opodatkowaniu na poziomie krajowym, europejskim i światowym, w tym studentom kierunków prawnych i ekonomicznych.
...  Concern emerged in view of the severe speculative attacks on the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To prevent global financial crises, notable economists have called for "sand to be thrown in the wheels of international finance" by imposing a tax on foreign exchange dealings (Barry Eichengreen, Tobin, and Charles Wyplosz 1995). Furthermore, to address these speculative occurrences, Ruth Kelly (1993Kelly ( , 1994 and Geoffrey C. Harcourt (1995) have advanced modifications of a tax on foreign exchange dealings. ...
Article
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The paper focuses on international tax proposals and analyzes rationales and challenges for adopting a compound global tax. It is proposed here that such a compound global tax instrument would mainly need to focus on two tiers. The one, based on the U.S. President Joe Biden?s 2021 suggestion, would need to close off tax avoidance and tax evasion possibilities for large multinational and transnational corporations; and the other, based on the James Tobin?s 1972-tax proposal, would seek to eliminate the speculative dimension of international foreign exchange dealings. These tiers are discussed extensively in this contribution, concluding with the suggestion that policy coordination is paramount.
... Second, our formulation of the floating exchange rate with limited access to external finance is similar to the case of throwing sand in the wheels of capital movements, because it creates a wedge between international financing and domestic investment (Eichengreen et al., 1995), and, therefore, help to reduce output and price stability. ...
Article
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This research explores the question of which exchange rate regime would bring about better output and price stability, given the initial conditions and the external shocks facing Argentina’s economy in 2001–2002. Our analytical model incorporates a transmission mechanism, the balance‐sheet effects, which formulates the possible interaction between foreign debt and exchange rate policy. We find that a floating exchange rate that depends on external finance outperforms dollarization, after supposing the amount of foreign debt payments is limited. As the relative performance of alternative exchange rate arrangements depends on the foreign debt payments, our empirical results imply that the restructuring of foreign debt should be an integral part of any negotiation concerning the postcrisis exchange rate regime. Our results also show that with the existence of foreign debt, the policy trade‐off implied by the Trilemma becomes much constrained.
... Whatever policy stance is regarded as unsustainable and thus not credible can be tested out by the markets. There is thus every reason to explore all the possibilities for limiting the destructive power of the financial markets, including Tobin taxes, deposit requirements on foreign exchange transactions, and dual exchange rates (see Eichengreen et al. 1995). But while such restrictions could hopefully limit the power of the markets to destroy an egalitarian package that had a fighting chance of success, they could never preserve in place a package that was unviable, for the fundamental internal reasons discussed in the second section. ...
Chapter
The authors of this book challenge mainstream thinking about the nature of globalization. While not hostile to markets per se, they believe that capitalist market processes, left to operate freely, tend to generate injustice, insecurity, instability, and inefficiency. Taking account of the new realities of globalization, this volume explores an unusually wide range of subjects, including trade integration, multinational corporations, labor markets and migration, international capital flows, macroeconomic and environmental policy, and the central roles of the IMF and World Bank. It proposes alternatives to neo-liberal orthodoxy, developing policy measures that counter the destructive features of markets and promote equality as well as efficiency. The approach in this volume is particularly illuminating for understanding the Asian financial collapse of 1997–98 and similar recent crises. The volume also includes comments on each chapter by a wide range of distinguished economists, producing a lively and often controversial set of interchanges.
... In reactie op de financiële crisis ontstond het idee (dat overigens al ver terug gaat in de tijd; zie Eichengreen et al. 1995) om een dergelijke taks te introduceren. Het Verenigd Koninkrijk, Duitsland en met name Frankrijk bepleitten bij de G20-bijeenkomsten het invoeren van een mondiale taks, maar het werd vrij snel duidelijk dat een mondiale taks een brug te ver zou zijn (onder andere de vs was tegen). ...
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Working Paper nr. 15: Europese financiële regulering voor en na de crisis gaat in op de vraag in hoeverre de Europese beleidshervormingen sinds de crisis een substantiële verschuiving vormen ten opzichte van het pre-crisis-beleid.
... Capital controls could also modify the structure of capital inflows by discouraging short-term (speculative) capital and boosting medium and long-term capital. As was argued by Eichengreen, Tobin, and Wyplosz (1995), by throwing "sand in the wheels", capital controls constrain speculative inflows helping to stabilize the exchange rate and reducing its short-term volatility. ...
Article
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Intervention in the foreign exchange market and capital controls are two controversial policy options that many countries have adopted in order to influence the exchange rate and moderate capital flows. The objective of this paper is to examine their effectiveness for a representative Emerging Market economy. The main findings indicate that neither central bank intervention nor capital controls used separately were successful for depreciating the exchange rate but have the side effect of augmenting its volatility. Nonetheless, during a period when both policies were used simultaneously, they were effective to impact the exchange rate, without increasing its volatility.
... Analysts and researchers have proposed arguments both in favour and against FTTs. On the one hand, proponents of FTTs argue that they are beneficial to financial markets because of their effectiveness in lowering the volatility of trade prices; this limits excessive risk taking by financial professionals and subsequently prevents the occurrence of market bubbles (Eichengreen et al. 1995;Stiglitz 1989;Summers and Summers 1989;Tobin 1984). On the other hand, opponents claim that FTTs exert a negative influence on market efficiency (Campbell and Froot 1995). ...
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Motivated by the debate over the economic implications of financial transaction taxes, the present study involved a thorough investigation of the impact of such taxes on a financial market of the type described by Camerer and Weigelt (J Bus 64:463–493, 1991), whereby noise traders are unaware of whether privileged information is fluctuating in the market. Two treatment conditions were opposed to a baseline condition in which no tax was levied. The two treatment conditions imposed a transaction tax equal to 0.5% and 1% of each transaction’s market value, respectively. The findings show that: (1) the introduction of a tax did not affect the occurrence of a mirage, (2) the introduction of a tax did not improve market efficiency and (3) the introduction of a tax did not reduce the number of transactions.
... Engel, 2015;Galati and Moessner, 2013;Hanson et al., 2011), which is paralleled at the international level by authors who see great promise in the top-down global governance approach (e.g. Eichengreen, 1999Eichengreen, , 2002Eichengreen et al., 1995;Rogoff, 1999;Simmons, 2001Simmons, , 2008. Previous "microprudential" approaches to regulation focused on bank-specific characteristics, such as capital ratios. ...
Article
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... This line of argument is consistent with the critiques on globalisation made by Krugman and Venables (1995), Rodrik (1997), Stiglitz (2002) and Spence (2011) cited in the introduction. Moreover, restrictions are equivalent to throwing sand in the wheels of international finance, and these can have positive effects in the aggregate, as argued by Eichengreen, Tobin, and Wyplosz (1995). ...
Article
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We empirically investigate the link between economic globalisation and unemployment for a sample of 20 OECD countries over the 1981-2013 period. Controlling for the usual determinants of unemployment, our results show that unemployment is related in a complex way to global economic factors. Specifically , we show that outflows of foreign direct investment and restrictions reduce the unemployment rate, whereas capital account openness raises it. We also find that the standard trade openness measure does not explain unemployment in advanced economies. Finally, the increase in the share of China's imports is not to be blamed for slack in Western labour markets. JEL Classification: E24, F62, C33.
... Once this is acknowledged, the logic of inevitability, which patterns of economic interdependence are so frequently seen to imply, appear somewhat less imposing. This is made very clear in the technical literature on financial re-regulation -a literature sadly unnoticed by mainstream political science (see, for instance, Akyüz and Cornford 1995;Eichengreen, Tobin and Wyplosz 1995;Ul Haq, Kaul and Grunberg 1996;Watson 1999). ...
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... Such changes impact short-term capital flow and exchange rates in a domestic economy. A floating exchange rate and strong capital mobility are associated with greater exchange-rate volatility, external vulnerability and loss of autonomy in domestic fiscal and monetary policies, especially for emerging economies (Tobin 1978;Eichengreen et al. 1995;Ferrari-Filho/Paula 2009). ...
Article
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Inflation targeting, primary surpluses and a floating exchange rate under supply and exchange-rate shocks can combine to create deleterious effects on the economic dynamic. This paper reports on computer simulation experiments using a dynamic and stochastic model that can incorporate different restrictions. In general, the data show that under supply and exchange-rate shocks, a better method for minimising social loss includes flexible inflation targeting, counter-cyclical primary surpluses and capital control without eliminating the floating exchange rate.
... 11 Tobin (1978) and Eichengreen, Tobin and Wyplosz (1995). Ul Haq, Kraul e Grunberg (eds) (1996) present in detail the pros and cons of the introduction of a Tobin tax. ...
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Gospodarka światowa podlega nieustannym przemianom. Ich siłą napędową jest rozwój przebiegający w każdym obszarze życia gospodarczego zarówno w ujęciu mikro-, jak i makroekonomicznym. Pojawia się pytanie, czy nadchodzące zmiany można antycypować opierając się o doświadczenia zdarzeń przeszłych. Historia rozwoju gospodarczego świata dowodzi, że nie jest to możliwe, kluczowymi punktami zwrotnymi są zwykle zdarzenia nieprzewidywalne, jak wybuchy wojen lub/i kryzysów. Gospodarka globalna ma również swoją wewnętrzną dynamikę rozwoju, zatem część zmian generują procesy w niej zachodzące. Celem niniejszej publikacji jest określenie uwarunkowań teoretycznych i praktycznych międzynarodowych przepływów inwestycji wobec zmieniających się zasad funkcjonowania otoczenia zewnętrznego, którego ramy wyznacza ewolucja międzynarodowego systemu walutowego. Transgraniczne przepływy środków finansowych stanowią istotny element zachodzących współcześnie procesów gospodarczych i są ważną determinantą zmienności parametrów makroekonomicznych. Pomimo faktu, że mechanizmy działania zarówno gospodarek krajowych, jak i gospodarki globalnej są coraz lepiej rozpoznawane, prognozowanie kierunków i wolumenu międzynarodowych przepływów inwestycji jest nadal bardzo trudne. Nie tylko oddziałuje na nie coraz większa liczba zróżnicowanych czynników, ale również sformułowane przez teorię ekonomii modele stają się coraz mniej przydatne do ich objaśniania. Niniejsza monografia ma w założeniach dostarczyć czytelnikowi wiedzy i kompetencji do analizy i interpretacji międzynarodowych przepływów finansowych. Jest kierowana do szerokiego grona odbiorców, studentów, pracowników nauki, przedstawicieli biznesu oraz wszystkich osób zainteresowanych przedstawianą tematyką. Okres, w którym została ukończona, stanowi prawdopodobnie moment przełomowy i jednocześnie początek kolejnego etapu rozwoju gospodarki globalnej. Został on rozpoczęty przez wybuch ogólnoświatowego kryzysu finansowego w 2008 roku, kolejnym istotnym czynnikiem zmiany był zapoczątkowany w 2020 roku kryzys pandemii, obecnie kryzys gospodarczy jest kontynuowany i pogłębiany przez wybuch konfliktu ukraińsko-rosyjskiego. Długofalowe skutki dwóch ostatnich kryzysów są trudne do przewidzenia, nie sposób ocenić ich wpływu na międzynarodowe przepływy inwestycji – jesteśmy obecnie w ich centrum, co powoduje brak, niezbędnych do formułowania ocen, dystansu i perspektywy (np. prognozy dotyczące kształtowania się m.in. równowagi zewnętrznej w gospodarce światowej, zawarte w External Sector Report [IMF, 2021], stały się wobec wybuchu wojny nieaktualne). Oba czynniki indukujące obecny kryzys w globalnej gospodarce mają charakter egzogeniczny, nie zostały wykreowane przez system jako taki, zatem w obszarze działania systemu nie leży ich przezwyciężenie. Analiza międzynarodowych przepływów inwestycji kończy się zatem na kryzysie systemowym, za jaki można uznać światowy kryzys gospodarczy i finansowy 2008+. Praca została podzielona na cztery rozdziały. W rozdziale pierwszym zostały przedstawione najważniejsze teoretyczne przesłanki uzasadniające swobodę, lub jej brak, dla międzynarodowych przepływów inwestycji oraz objaśniające ich kierunki i osadzone w teorii determinanty. Zamierzeniem autorki było przedstawienie różnych nurtów teoretycznych, których stosunek do swobody przepływów finansowych między krajami jest zróżnicowany. Współczesne podejście do międzynarodowych przepływów inwestycji, które w krajach rozwiniętych jest zdecydowanie proliberalizacyjne, znajduje uzasadnienie w jednej z dwóch głównych teorii systemowych – neoklasycyzmie. Druga z teorii – keynesizm, reprezentująca odmienne podejście, jest bliższa stanowisku (części) krajów rozwijających się. Rozdział drugi to kontynuacja części teoretycznej, jego celem jest nakreślenie szerokiego spektrum czynników uwzględnianych przez kraje przy podejmowaniu decyzji o zniesieniu barier wobec przepływów finansowych, a także determinant przemieszczania się kapitału inwestycyjnego w skali globalnej. Przedstawiona została w nim ich krótka charakterystyka, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem podziału na czynniki o charakterze wewnętrznym i zewnętrznym. W rozdziale zaprezentowano także przekrój zróżnicowanych sekwencji znoszenia przez kraje ograniczeń istniejących wobec przepływów finansowych oraz bogaty zestaw możliwych do zastosowania narzędzi ograniczających swobodę tych przepływów. W końcowej części rozdziału dokonana została charakterystyka potencjalnych korzyści i zagrożeń wiążących się z włączaniem kraju w procesy globalizacji rynków finansowych, w tym szczególnym aspekcie, jakim jest liberalizacja przepływów finansowych. W rozdziale trzecim przedstawiono zarys zasad funkcjonowania trzech dotychczas działających międzynarodowych systemów walutowych, przy czym nacisk został położony na przedstawienie uwarunkowań transgranicznych przepływów finansowych. W każdym systemie kluczowe elementy prowadzonej przez kraje polityki makroekonomicznej, postrzeganej przez pryzmat tzw. trylematu makroekonomicznego (szerzej w rozdziale pierwszym monografii), były odmienne. Fakt ten rodzi konkretne konsekwencje dla polityki krajów wobec swobody międzynarodowych przepływów inwestycji, która stanowi część prowadzonej przez nie polityki gospodarczej. W rozdziale poruszony został również problem działania mechanizmu wyrównawczego w poszczególnych systemach. Nieefektywność działania tego mechanizmu nie tylko wpływa na zaburzenia równowagi zewnętrznej poszczególnych krajów systemu, ale może być także źródłem kryzysu o zasięgu krajowym, regionalnym bądź globalnym. Rozdział czwarty poświęcony został charakterystyce i badaniom kierunków przepływów inwestycji w gospodarce globalnej. Punktem wyjścia prowadzonych w nim analiz jest odwołanie do modelu neoklasycznego i wniosków z próby jego empirycznej weryfikacji w zakresie przydatności do objaśniania rzeczywistych kierunków przepływu kapitału w gospodarce globalnej. Wnioski te zostały sformułowane przez Roberta E. Lucasa Jr. w artykule opublikowanym w 1990 roku i znane są jako tzw. paradoks Lucasa. Stanowią one po dziś dzień punkt wyjścia do badań prowadzonych przez licznych ekonomistów próbujących zweryfikować ich zasadność we wszystkich okresach działania międzynarodowego systemu walutowego. Zadanie to nie jest proste z uwagi na bardzo ograniczone dane na temat transgranicznych przepływów inwestycji dotyczące nie tylko najstarszego systemu, czyli systemu waluty złotej, ale także systemu Bretton Woods, który powstał po zakończeniu II wojny światowej. We współczesnym systemie wielodewizowym, w którym dostępność danych jest znacznie większa, przeprowadzanie analiz jest utrudnione przez niejednorodność obowiązujących w nim zasad. Powoduje to istotne zróżnicowanie polityk makroekonomicznych prowadzonych przez poszczególne kraje, co ma znaczący wpływ na wolumen i kierunki przepływów finansowych.
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Recent years have seen recurring international financial crises, as well as a tremendous rise in trading and speculation. How are the two related? Are speculators and trading responsible for market volatility? This paper presents a study of the Gulf Crisis of 1990–1991, examining the behavior of the international oil market during a period of unprecedented volatility. The analysis suggests that a combination of political events and market fundamentals, rather than trading, was behind this volatility.
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On the one hand, those who favor financial liberalization argue that it allows more efficient allocation of savings, which is vital to stimulating investment and economic growth. On the other hand, those who criticize financial liberalization see it as transferring income from the real sector to the financial sector and creating instability in the economic system. Events in Brazil, mainly during the 1990s, proved that arguments against financial liberalization had been correct. In light of that finding, the purpose of this article is to theoretically and empirically present how financial liberalization has been developed in Brazil since the 1990s.
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The promotion of both market fairness and efficiency has long been a goal of securities market regulators worldwide. Accelerated digital disruption and abusive trading behaviors, such as the GameStop mania, prompt regulatory changes. It is unclear how this “democratization” of trading power affects market fairness as economies cope with pandemic-driven shifts in basic systems. Excessive speculation and market manipulation undermine the quality of financial markets in the sense that they cause volatility and increase the pain of bubble and crash events. Thereby, they weaken public confidence in financial markets to fulfill their roles in proper capital allocation to irrigate the real economy and generate value for society. While previous studies have mostly focused on market efficiency, our study proposes a tool to improve market fairness, even under periods of stress. To encourage value generation and improve market quality, we advance a graduated Non-Value-Added Tax that we implement in an agent-based model that can realistically capture the properties of real-world financial markets. A profitable transaction is taxed at a higher rate if it does not enhance the efficiency measured by deviation from fundamentals. When an agent locks in profit not supported by fundamentals but driven by trend-following strategies, the generated profit is taxed at various rates under the Non-Value-Added Tax regime. Unlike existing financial transaction taxes, the non-value-added tax is levied on profit rather than on price or volume. We show that the proposed tax encourages profitable trades that add value to the market and discourages valueless profit-making. It significantly curtails volatility and prevents the occurrence of extreme market events, such as bubbles and crashes.
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Using data from the Los Angeles area from 1988 to 2012, we study the behavior and sources of returns of individual investors in the housing market. We document the existence of two distinct investor types. The first act as middlemen, purchasing substantially below and reselling above market prices throughout the cycle, improving liquidity and the existing capital stock in the process. The second act as speculators, who primarily enter during the boom, buying and selling at essentially market prices. Neither type anticipated the housing bust. We document similar behavior by speculators and middlemen in 96 other U.S. metro areas.
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The Financial Crisis, which broke out in the US due to the mortgage bubble, had spread through financial channels to core countries. The periphery countries that weren’t fully integrated into the financial markets had been influenced via economic ways, indirectly. However the crisis -spreading on a global scale- had had negative impacts on all countries and had led to changes in the economic policies of states. One of the possibilities of the crisis was for it to turn into a cyclical crisis because of its reach throughout the whole world and the failure of economic policies -applied to one after another- in the preventing of the spread and impact of the crisis in a short time, resulting in economic and neoliberal policies being questioned. The periphery economies, being economically affected by the crisis, had to assume many economic costs due to mortgage loans in the US, which had nothing to do with them. In the study, through the examples of Brazil and Turkey within the framework of these discussions, the implication of economic policy has been examined for periphery countries. In the study, the way in which both countries were affected by the crisis has been evaluated through net capital flows, foreign direct investments, foreign trade data, and main economic indicators. Although neoliberal policies, which pushed both countries towards this process, had added them to the global economic system, they had to apply Keynesian policies because neoliberalism had become inadequate in exiting the crisis. In the conclusion of the study, policy proposals have been made for getting out of the crisis by discussing the ineffectiveness of the economic policies that had been implemented
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Cambridge Core - International Relations and International Organisations - Praxis - by Friedrich Kratochwil
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Der demokratische Steuerstaat liefert das institutionelle Modell zur legitimen Erhebung von Steuern: Steuereinnahmen stellen politische Handlungsfähigkeit sicher, die mittels Besteuerung verfolgten Ziele sind das Ergebnis demokratischer Verfahren, und die Steuern erhebenden Institutionen genießen den Status demokratischer Legitimität. Eine zweifache Dynamik stellt diesen Status quo in Frage. Erstens sind Staaten Herausforderungen ausgesetzt, denen nur mit weltweiter Besteuerung zu begegnen ist. Und zweitens führt die Mobilität von Kapital dazu, dass Staaten immer weniger in der Lage sind, effektiv und gerecht Steuern zu erheben. Wie lässt sich das Instrument der Besteuerung weiterhin auf legitime Weise einsetzen? Und wie sollte Staatsfinanzierung künftig institutionell verfasst sein?
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Michelle Baddeley in this chapter entitled, ‘Financial Instability and Speculative Bubbles: Behavioural Insights and Policy Implications’, draws on themes from Baddeley and McCombie’s (An historical perspective on speculative bubbles and financial crises: Tulipmania and the South Sea bubble. In: Arestis P, Baddeley M, McCombie JSL (eds) What global economic crisis? Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, 2001) exploration of speculative bubbles, which applied different models of speculation to analysing famous historical speculative episodes, specifically Tulipmania and the South Sea Bubble. This chapter re-assesses these insights in the light of all that has happened during the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and subsequent global financial crises of 2007/2008. It also extends the analysis to include new insights from behavioural finance about the nature and causes of speculative bubbles, blending insights from behavioural finance and post-Keynesian economics. Speculative bubbles throughout history have a number of common, predictable features so why have we not learnt more from these past experiences? In answering these questions, this chapter concludes with an analysis of policy implications—including fiscal and monetary measures that could be implemented to minimise the destabilising real-side impacts from speculative bubbles and the financial shocks and crises which often follow.
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This volume provides bridges from the social sciences to business ethics and from the latter to the quality of life, by connecting the research themes of quality of life, social sciences, including public policy-making, and business ethics or corporate responsibility. It builds on the premise that public policy making is essentially a species of good decision making, as explained in the first volume. It shows that, because most developed countries function as market economies whose governments depend on taxation to pay for their services and because a large proportion of government revenue comes from well-regulated, responsible corporations, the quality of people's lives is highly dependent upon good public policies, taxation and business ethics. The volume presents and examines ethical/moral problems arising in market economies since the first century BCE, including the first appearance of the business case for business ethics, fourteen arguments concerning the neglect of business ethics, business ethics issues for the 1990s and beyond, the loyal agent's argument, advertising, the importance of trust, public opinion polling, public program evaluation, and a critique of the relatively new monster of super-capitalism. In addition, it deals with connections among the concepts of efficiency, morality, and rationality related to decision making in general and public policy making in particular. Finally, it explains relationships between outcomes measurement and performance indicators in general and performance-based management in public administration, the taxation of net wealth and financial transactions. © Springer International Publishing AG 2017. All rights reserved.
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It is time to stop flying cruise missiles over Canadian skies.
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Commercial public opinion polling is an increasingly important element in practically all elections in democratic countries around the world. Poll results and pollsters are relatively new and autonomous voices in our human communities. Here I try to connect such polling directly to morality and democratic processes. Several arguments have been and might be used for and against banning such polling during elections, i.e., for and against effectively silencing these voices. I present the arguments on both sides of this issue, and try to show that there are reasonable responses to all the arguments in favour of banning polls. Then I review some proposed Canadian legislation concerning banning polls and, alternatively, requiring disclosure of methodological features of polls. Finally, I offer a model set of disclosure standards for the publication of poll results during election campaigns.
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The aim of this essay is to briefly review some of the broadly financial and narrowly currency crises of the 1990s, consider their causal antecedents and consequences, and finally examine in some detail one plausible remedial policy initiative that might be undertaken by key players in the international game of financial trading.
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It is argued that by explicating rationality in terms of benefits balancing or outweighing costs instead of in terms of maximizing or satisficing something, a more adequate view of rationality is obtained.
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According to the Report of the Special Review Committee of the Board of Directors of Gulf Oil Corporation:
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The paper is a study of the price level and relative price effects of a policy to monetize gold and fix its price at a given future time and at the then prevailing nominal price. Price movements are analyzed both during the transition to the gold standard and during the post-monetization period. The paper also explores the adjustments to fiat money which are necessary to ensure that this type of gold monetization is non-inflationary. Finally, some conditions which produce a run on the government's gold stock leading to the collapse of the gold standard and the timing of such a run are examined.
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Once one recognizes that governments borrow international reserves and exercise other policy options to defend fixed exchange rates during currency crises, the question arises: What factors determine a government's decision to abandon a currency peg or hang on? In a setting of purposeful action by the authorities, the possibility of self-fulfilling crises becomes important. Speculative anticipations depend on conjectured government responses, which depend, in turn, on how price changes that are themselves fueled by expectations affect the government's economic and political positions. The circular dynamic implies a potential for crises that need not have occurred, but that do because market participants expect them to. In contrast to this picture, most previous literature on balance-of- payments crises ignores the response of government behavior to markets. That literature, I argue, throws little light on events such as the European Exchange Rate Mechanism collapse of 1992-93. This paper then presents two different models in which crisis and realignment result from the interaction of rational private economic actors and a government that pursues well-defined policy goals. In both, arbitrary expectational shifts can turn a fairly credible exchange-rate peg into a fragile one.
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When central banks are about to relinquish control over their exchange rate and enter into a currency union, the reptutational costs to devaluation are very low. As with any finite-horizon game, the endpoint affects the earlier expectations of private agents, here causing them to demand higher interest rates and higher wages from countries whose currencies are relatively weak. In looking at the countries within the EMS, we find that Italian long-term interest rates as well as price and wages levels relative to Germany show evidence of growing gaps We also find that the real appreciation of the lira appears to be predominantly due to increases in relative Italian government spending, and not to relatively rapid Italian productivity growth. Taken together, this evidence suggests that convergence within the EMS may have peaked. Furthermore, moving forward the date of currency union may in the short run increase both the growth of the gaps and the need for exchange-rate realignment.
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This paper provides evidence on the effects of capital controls. We show that controls have been associated with significant differences in macroeconomic behaviour, especially in monetary policy. While they have not prevented speculative attacks, they have provided the breathing space needed to organize orderly realignments. We also provide evidence on the channels through which speculative attacks operate, showing that bank lending to non-residents is a key transmission mechanism. We conclude with a discussion of measures that mimic some of the effects of controls as a way of easing the transition to European Monetary Union. Non-interest-bearing deposit requirements on lending to non-residents are proposed as a third-best route to monetary union.
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The paper discusses what we have learned from last year's currency crises in ERM and the Nordic countries about fixed exchange rates as a means to achieve price stability. After discussing the explanations for the crises, the paper concludes that fixed exchange rates are not a shortcut to price stability. Monetary stability and credibility have to be built at home and cannot easily be imported from abroad. Fixed exchange rates are more fragile and difficult to maintain than previously thought. They may even be in conflict with price stability, by inducing a procyclical destabilizing monetary policy, and by inducing an inflation bias. Building monetary credibility is even more important with flexible exchange rates.
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This paper points to a vicious circle which may arise when a government tries to defend its currency by raising the nominal interest rate in a fixed exchange rate system. We present a stylised model in which raising the nominal interest rate helps to maintain the parity, but is costly for the government. The speculators are aware that this cost gives incentives for the government to stop defending the parity, which in turn reinforces the speculation against the currency. We show that this mechanism can generate self-fulfilling currency crises, the outcome of which depends on the level of sacrifice that the government is ready to endure and the evolution of domestic economic conditions. We provide some informal evidence showing that this model explains some features of the 1992–93 EMS crisis.
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This paper reformulates the monetary approach after ascertaining that a money demand function with a partial adjustment mechanism had more empirical support than a money demand function which assumed instantaneous stock adjustment. The resulting exchange rate equation is estimated by two rational expectations techniques. The parameter estimates are reasonable, and are robust to the estimation technique used, to different specifications of the driving processes, and to changes in the estimation period. The structural model outperforms the random walk model and its own unconstrained equivalent, a pure time series equation, in outof-sample forecasts.
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A model of irreversible investment in a competitive industry under demand uncertainty is developed. In the absence of restrictions, investment by itself will keep the price from rising above a natural ceiling that exceeds the long-run average cost by an option value factor. When a lower ceiling is imposed, investment is triggered only by the observation of an even higher "shadow" price. As the imposed ceiling is reduced to the long-run average cost, this shadow price goes to infinity and investment ceases completely. Because investment is depressed, a tighter price ceiling generally leads to a higher long-run average price. Copyright 1991 by University of Chicago Press.
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This paper develops a simple model of exchange rate behavior under a target zone regime. It shows that the expectation that monetary policy will be adjusted to limit exchange rate variation affects exchange rate behavior even when the exchange rate lies inside the zone and is, thus, not being defended actively. Somewhat surprisingly, the analysis of target zones turns out to have a strong formal similarity to problems in option pricing and investment under uncertainty. Copyright 1991, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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Existing models of speculative attacks and balance of payments crises do not provide a good explanation for the breakdown of the ERM in 1992/93. This paper presents an alternative model which captures some of the important features of that period. The switch from a fixed to a floating rate regime is triggered, in this model, by an optimising government which wants to loosen monetary policy and boost aggregate demand. Agents in the foreign exchange market know the government's objective function and therefore build expectations of a regime switch into interest differentials. The resulting rise in interest rates affects the government's decision to switch regime (via the effect of interest rates on aggregate demand). It is shown that this interaction between private sector expectations and government preferences can imply a breakdown of the fixed rate sooner than the government would like.
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Proponents of a securities transactions tax have suggested that such a tax may reduce stock return volatility. The argument is that, to the extent that short term speculative trading volume is the source of excess volatility, a tax that reduces such volume will reduce volatility. In the context of a simple general equilibrium model, it is shown that this partial equilibrium argument is misleading and in large part incorrect. In the absence of a tax, the model generates equilibria in which the risky asset's price exhibits excess volatility and agents engage in excess trading activity owing to the presence of destabilizing noise traders. Within the context of the model, it is shown that, although a transactions tax can reduce the volatility of the risky asset's price, the reduction in price volatility is accompanied by a fall in the asset's price as agents discount the future tax liability associated with risky asset ownership. Consequently, although price volatility may slightly decrease, the fall in equilibrium prices more than compensates, and the volatility of risky asset returns unambiguously increases with the level of the transactions tax.
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This paper argues that macroeconomic variables are relatively unimportant determinants of exchange rates. The argument hinges on the fact that bilateral exchange rate volatility differs widely across pairs of countries, but macroeconomic volatility is much more similar across countries, at least at short- and medium-term frequencies. For instance, the French Franc/German Deutschemark exchange rate has dramatically lower volatility than the Canadian dollar/German Deutschemark rate, although France and Canada have approximately equal macroeconomic volatility vis-a-vis Germany.
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Speculative attacks on a pegged exchange rate must sometimes occur ifasset-price paths are to be free of abnormal profit opportunities. Suchattacks are fully rational, as they reflect the market's response to aregime breakdown that is inevitable. The authors shows that under someexpectations about policy, balance-of-payments crises can also be purely self-fulfilling events. In such cases even a permanently viableregime may collapse, and the economy will possess multiple equilibriacorresponding to different subjective assessments of the probability ofa crisis. The behavior of the domestic interest rate will naturally reflect the possibility of a speculative attack. Copyright 1986 by American Economic Association.
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Realignment expectations which measure exchange rate credibility are analyzed for European exchange rates, using daily financial data since the inception of the EMS. It is difficult to find economically meaningful relationships between realignment expectations and macroeconomic variables, although there are signs that lower inflation improves credibility. Statistically, many movements to realignment expectations are common to ERM participants. There were few indications of poor ERM credibility before late August 1992; the dimensions of the currency crisis of September 1992 appear to have taken both policy-makers and private agents largely by surprise. kw]Realignment; Expectations; Currency crisis; ERM; EMS JEL classification: F31
//links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28199106%2999%3A3%3C541%3AIIWPC%3E2.0.CO%3B2-V Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics Rudiger Dornbusch The Journal of Political Economy
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Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28199106%2999%3A3%3C541%3AIIWPC%3E2.0.CO%3B2-V Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics Rudiger Dornbusch The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 84, No. 6. (Dec., 1976), pp. 1161-1176
org/sici?sici=0007-2303%281993%291993%3A1%3C51%3ATUE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Y http://www.jstor.org LINKED CITATIONS - Page 2 of 3 - NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list. rGold Monetization and Gold Discipline Robert P. Flood; Peter M
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A model of the ERM crisis Unpublished manuscript, University of York. Rose, Andrew (I 994). 'Are exchange rates macroeconomic phenomena
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Ozkan, F. Gulcin and Sutherland, Alan (I993). 'A model of the ERM crisis.' Unpublished manuscript, University of York. Rose, Andrew (I 994). 'Are exchange rates macroeconomic phenomena?' Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, vol. I, pp. 19-30.
Javier (I 993)Currency markets and foreign exchange crises: a note in connection with the Group of Ten Report of April I993 Unpublished manuscript, Bank of Spain. Obstfeld, Maurice (1 986). 'Rational and self fulfilling balance of payments crises
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Linde, Luis and Alonzo, Javier (I 993). 'Currency markets and foreign exchange crises: a note in connection with the Group of Ten Report of April I993.' Unpublished manuscript, Bank of Spain. Obstfeld, Maurice (1 986). 'Rational and self fulfilling balance of payments crises.' American Economic Review, vol. 76, pp. 72-8I.
Linde, Luis (I993). 'Las medias del Banco de Espana de septiembre y octubre de I992 penaliando la especulcion cambiaria
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I72 THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL [JANUARY 1995] Linde, Luis (I993). 'Las medias del Banco de Espana de septiembre y octubre de I992 penaliando la especulcion cambiaria.' Paeles de Economia Espanola.
Managing the monetary system.' In Managing the World Economy FEfty Years After Bretton Woods (ed. Peter B. Kenen) pp. 83-1 I I
  • Randall Henning
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Henning, Randall and Williamson, John (1994). 'Managing the monetary system.' In Managing the World Economy FEfty Years After Bretton Woods (ed. Peter B. Kenen) pp. 83-1 I I. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.
The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list. Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline Robert P. Flood; Peter M
NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list. Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline Robert P. Flood; Peter M. Garber The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 92, No. 1. (Feb., 1984), pp. 90-107.
org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197612%2984%3A6%3C1161%3AEAERD%3E2.0.CO%3B2-N The Unstable EMS Barry Eichengreen; Charles Wyplosz
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Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197612%2984%3A6%3C1161%3AEAERD%3E2.0.CO%3B2-N The Unstable EMS Barry Eichengreen; Charles Wyplosz; William H. Branson; Rudiger Dornbusch Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1993, No. 1. (1993), pp. 51-143.
European monetary union and international currencies in a tripolar world
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