Desemprego Regional no Brasil: Uma Abordagem Empírica

Department of Economics PUC-Rio
Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 04/1997;
Source: RePEc


This paper analyses convergence of unemployment rates in Poland at NUTS4 level by testing nonlinear convergence, applying the modified KSS-CHLL for each pair of territorial units. The results suggest that actually the convergence is a rare phenomenon and occurs only in 1916 cases out of potential over 70 000 combinations. This paper inquires what systematic reasons contribute to this phenomenon. There are some circumstances under which unemployment convergence should be more expected than in others. These include sharing a higher level territorial authority, experiencing similar labour market hardship or sharing the same structural characteristics. For each of these three criteria we analyse the frequency of the differential nonstationarity within groups (as evidence of convergence) and across groups (as evidence of "catching up").

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    • "xas de desemprego de todos os estados são iguais foi rejeitada, assim, concluímos que cada estado tem sua própria taxa, o que reforça a indicação do modelo de efeitos fixos. As diferenças persistentes e idiossincráticas das regiões (estados) encontradas neste trabalho, também esta presente, implícita ou explicitamente, nos trabalhos de Corseuil et al. (1999); Oliveira e Cruz (2000); Oliveira e Carneiro (2001). De acordo com Marston (1985), o desvio padrão da taxa de desemprego de equilíbrio σ α deve ser maior que desvio padrão dos componentes do desemprego de desequilíbrio σ η . No entanto, neste modelo foi encontrado um resultado contrário para a estimação do modelo de efeitos fixos. Quand"
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    ABSTRACT: The objective of this paper is to extend the theoretical model of the theory of unemployment of Marston (1985) and to apply for the Brazilian States, with special prominence in the evaluation of the role exerted for the education (human capital) of the unemployed in the unemployment rate. In accordance with the theory, the fixed effect as attractiveness, wages, and market structure of the States exerts important influences on the unemployment rate. However, in our view the model omits the main characteristic of the unemployed ones that is the average education. Thus, in this paper we correct this problem of omitted variable. Another innovation is related to the aspect of the econometrical estimates. Besides specification tests, fixed and random effects estimates, we estimate dynamic equations that account for the omitted variable problem and also eliminates potential endogenous (reverse causality) problems. As main result, the level of education of the unemployed have a causal relation on the unemployment rate of a non linear form, inverted U. The unemployment rate is increased for average knowledge below for years and declines after that. With regard to the market structure of the economy, the agriculture sector demonstrated to be the only one that help reduces the unemployment tax. The reason is that this sector generates jobs of low qualification compatible with the low education level of the unemployed work force.
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    • "Essa teoria apresenta uma relação funcional estável entre salário, atratividade (condições favoráveis de uma região, como clima, infra-estrutura, segurança e outros benefícios sociais), e desemprego. 4 Corseuil et alii (1997) argumentam ainda que os fatores ligados ao tempo equivalem aos choques nacionais, pois são esses os fatores que fazem que as regiões sejam afetadas igualmente, enquanto os fatores cross-section dizem respeito às unidades regionais. Os autores concluíram que o componente relativo ao tempo é superior, o que indica que os choques agregados afetam mais o desemprego das regiões do que o componente estrutural. "

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    ABSTRACT: In this article we present some estimates for the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) using Brazilian Data. Two different models are used. One is based on a transfer function estimation of a traditional Phillips curve approach. The second one is a signal extraction method were the NAIRU is the unobservable stochastic trend of the unemployment data. The NAIRU is estimated using both the IBGE and DIEESE data. The results show a linear Phillips curve for Brazil, and allow good estimates of the NAIRU. The estimations performed using quarterly data produced a time varying NAIRU. Our results are in line with the acceleration of inflation during the eighties and the desacceleration of inflation that follow the Real Plan. We also present a monetary policy model where the NAIRU gap plays a key role for inflation targeting, not because monetary authorities should close the gap every period, but because it helps predict future inflation.
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